that's steve liesman, our senior economics reporter. let's bring in the wharton school professor and wisdomtree senior economist. now, jeremy siegel, professor, it's always good to have you, especially when we see a market doing what it is on these headlines. your reaction is what? >> well. >> i think. >> you know, tariffs. >> are the. only negative. >> of trump's economic agenda, most of which is very good. i also. >> by. >> the way. >> wouldn't completely give up hope. on a settlement. >> i know a number. >> of people, including. >> myself, that have. >> been in a jury room, selected for a jury and were ready to go. lawyer comes in the last minute and said, hey, we have a settlement and we all leave. i can't guarantee that. but, you know, you know, the art of the deal for trump. let's push him to the edge and see what happens. but clearly if there if it is 25, 25 or and then ten on china it that is a negative impact on the economy. and i think on stock prices. >> but then why do you have people like jamie dimon who i think it was in d

i'm going to quote steve liesman and steve liesman. labor markets are solid. inflation may get better considering a additional. timing of moves. >> this sounds like a steve. >> liesman quoting a fed. >> ahead of. >> a rate. >> hike. >> not a rate cut. you know, i guess so. >> i mean, i. >> don't i don't think that that they're they're at that point yet. brian, i think the idea that the labor market remains solid is a is it's a positive that powell and the fed have that allowed them to figure out which way they want to go with rates. but i still think there's an inference in the statement when they say, in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments. and by the way, brian, you do add the important point here, which is that one of the keys that i've been saying to this meeting is, does powell affirm that with all the other things that are going on that you all are talking about in the last segment, tariffs and tax policy and all the other stuff, will he affirm that the direction of travel is still downward? that's really important. is he still co

they'll wait longer. >> steve liesman. >> what are the odds of. >> a march rate cut here? >> well, actually. >> they're. >> up a little bit. kelly i'll give you the data here. it's i think it was around 72%, if i'm not mistaken. >> hold on a second. >> i have it right here. it went up. i need my glasses. darn it. i'm very. sorry about that. what we have is a sorry. >> it's 28% in march. it's 72. when you get to june. >> that's the. that's the month we've been watching. what's interesting to me, kelly. and i wonder what mr. stanley, as you correctly termed it, turned him. thinks about this. these numbers are up from from after president trump put a little. >> pressure on. >> the fed. and i don't know if the market is reacting to that. maybe it's a signal of where he thinks the fed ought to go, or the kind of chair he'd put in place, or, governor, he might nominate if there's an opening there. but i don't know. it seems like the market may have reacted yesterday to some of the jawboning from the president to the fed. >> but still, let's call. >> it about a. >> 25% 1 in 4 cha

steve liesman. >>> let's focus in on bond yields, another angle on that. rick santelli out in chicago talking to the traders. hi, rick! >> hi, yeah! boy, yields dropped big-time! let's see. here's the numbers today for cpi. up 0.4 on headline, up 0.2 on core, year over year headline up 2.9, year over year up 3.2 on headlines. do those sound cold to you? no, cold is walking here from the other exchange. it's cold outside! those numbers are not cold. the market did have a huge move, though, and we'll discuss with a trader why and keep an eye on that dollar index. it's almost back to unchanged even though rates have taken a big drop. let's go pitch one question for you, okay? >> shoot. >> none of this data looked very cold to me, yesterday or today. yet we saw a big drops in rates and your market screamed. why? >> yeah, everybody looks at the price action and comes up with an answer for why. >> oh, boy, is that true? >> the truth of the matter is, the vol is very well supplied, the sku is very well supplied. so once we filled that gap to the pre-election numb

steve. >> liesman, who's prepping down in. >> washington, d.c. hi, steve. >> hey, kelly, if you don't mind, just a second. some breaking news here. i'm looking at the twitter feed of our correspondent, peter alexander from nbc news, who is put up a memo saying that the administration has rescinded the order freezing federal assistance. the washington post had reported. now it looks like peter alexander from nbc is also reporting it. all of this folds into the fed, because all these dramatic announcements from the trump administration in just the past 24 hours, when it comes to federal workers and federal spending, they've underscored this decision that looks to be coming from the fed to pause and wait for greater clarity before considering any additional rate cuts. the fed already had to weigh the potential effects of tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and deportations. now it has to put into the mix this idea of a potential decline in government spending, though now that looks perhaps to have been rescinded, and some portion of 2 million federal wor

that's steve liesman just out of the room. got the first. question today to the fed chair as well. jeffrey, i'll bring you back in. in terms of inflation, it was the chair who said, quote, we seem to be set up for further progress. and in fact, recent reads on inflation were more calming. i think we could agree. do you think we've seen the peak in the in the backup in rates that we. witnessed from the cut, that we sat together on the very first one that jumbo cut, then rates backed up, we both sort of looked at the screen and were like, whoa, you know, that's interesting. >> and they. >> continued their march. certainly the, you know, the ten year towards 5%, it felt like it was going to get there. but then they backed off of late. had rates peaked. >> i think that rates have not peaked. >> on the long end. >> i think rates. >> will have. another move up on the long end. >> it is interesting. that the chair says. >> you know, that we've cut rates. >> by 100 basis points. and that's true. >> on. >> the fed funds rate. >> but the ten year. treasury rate is up by 80. basis points. >>

steve liesman, what's the story?> we have the minutes of the discount rate meetings with the federal reserve. what we learned, kelly, was that only eight of the 12 banks leading into that december meeting requested a cut in the discount rate. that is the board of directors. they meet. this is an indication perhaps of where the president of the federal reserve bank wanted them to go. sometimes they direct them. sometimes they don't. but only eight of 12 wanted it, which four did not, kansas city, megacap, dallas and st. louis did not request a quarter point cut in the discount rates. that suggests that four of those presidents are a little more hawkish, at least the boards are, perhaps the presidents as well. some directors were cautiously optimistic on the outlook. others, however, most directors cited uncertainty about potential changes to trade, fiscal and other government policies as affecting their outlook. importantly here, two of the four banks that didn't request the discount rate are headed -- kansas city hea

steve liesman, cnbc business news. >> well, sticking with central banks. this morning cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points. the move is the fifth cut in a row and the sixth cut since last may. the riksbank said there were signs an economic rebound was on the way, but that activity remains weak. sylvia joins us now with more on this decision. give us a little bit more color on how they couch this decision. >> well. >> we. >> could actually say that perhaps. >> the swedish central bank is the first one to be. >> able to claim. >> that the fight against. >> inflation is achieved. let's see what will happen in the coming months. >> but nonetheless, when. >> you think. >> about. what they said today. >> it is the sixth step in the easing cycle. >> they had. >> already indicated. >> that there was going. >> to be a first. >> cut in the first half of. >> the of the year. >> they deliver that already today. so the question going forward is whether. >> they're going to cut. further in this first half of 2025. and this. >> is why i want to show. >> you this se

steve liesman. >> for the latest results of cnbc's. fed survey. steve. >> hey, kelly. yeah, higher inflation but also more growth. that's the assessment of our respondents to the cnbc fed survey. when we asked about the effects of president trump's expected suite of all the policies. well, 64% are saying that they believe the trump administration's policies will likely be either somewhat or extremely inflationary, most of them in the somewhat category. how about for growth? somewhat or very positive for growth? 60%. again, most of them in the somewhat a bunch though think it could be possibly negative for growth. look at individual policies. let's look at tax policy. you can see very divided here being something that's worse for inflation. some say it's better for inflation. deregulation though that's seen as something this is something the administration has talked about as better for inflation. not so immigration and tariff policy where they're pretty definitive that there is that those are worse for inflationary outcomes. how about for growth. let's let's let's let'

cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman standing by with more. our senior banking and finance reporter, leslie picker, is here as well. leslie, let's just pick up on the reverberations this is causing thus far. >> yeah, there are definitely some reverberations. this is an issue that kind of came to the forefront back in april of 2024. you had a group of 15 attorneys general who sent a letter to bank of america basically saying and alleging discriminatory practices against certain clients who were dropped due to political and religious affiliations. if we want to take a step back here. banks do drop customers. oftentimes those customers are not given a reason. so you had these 15 attorneys general kind of write this letter citing some specific examples and saying that was not in accordance with the law, which prohibits discrimination for banks and doing businesses and issuing and offering credit to a variety of customers. now, bank of america at the time responded to those allegations and said specifically that the customers that they had cited, s

professor at georgetown mcdonough school of business, along with cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. paul, it almost sounded like you think there's a chance they might cut this week. or maybe we're putting it too strongly. welcome. >> good to see you, kelly and steve. >> no, i don't think. >> they're. cutting this week at all. >> i think this has been the most well advertised pause that. >> we've had in. >> a long. >> long time. so there's not that issue. >> but i do. >> think that. >> the direction. >> of travel. >> to. >> use mr. powell's. >> expression from december. >> is unambiguously. >> still down. >> and i think they. >> still have. >> a disinflationary. >> scenario in their mind. >> and i think that is justified. >> so i think that's. >> what he. >> will do this week is basically say we completed the recalibration. >> it's over. >> it was 100. >> basis points. >> we got. >> from the wrong. >> neighborhood to. >> the right. >> neighborhood. >> we're at four and 3/8. and now we're going to sit here and we're going to try to find the right street to be on. so i think he will b

steve liesman. with the day to go, the s&p is booking a 3% gain for january, which bodes well for the rest of the year, according to carson's group. ryan detrick, my next guest says, yeah, we're off to a strong start, but he's cautious because of, yes, tariffs, one of the reasons for the remainder of the year. let's bring in david katz. he's the cio at matrix asset advisors. good to see you david. so you're not not so i mean are you are you feeling bullish on the market overall here. >> we've been very bullish for. >> the. >> last two years. but after two years. >> of. >> plus 20% returns and a strong start to january, we think the upside is more limited. the market now is at about 22 times earnings. that's at the higher end of a 14 to 22 range. so we just advise investors to be a little. >> bit more cautious, lower your. >> expectations, expect volatility. we wouldn't chase this rally. >> all right. since we just heard you know 27 different hypotheses about what might happen with tariffs i'm not go

steve liesman has got the details. steve. >> thank you. melissa.e justice department just the last hour charged a former senior federal reserve official with conspiracy to commit economic espionage. the justice says the 63 year old john harold rogers is alleged to have passed, quote, sensitive trade secret information from the federal reserve to coconspirators in china. rogers was set specifically to solicit briefing books for governors, proprietary data sets and sensitive information about fomc deliberations. apparently, he printed this info out or sent it to his personal email in violation of federal reserve rules in preparation for trips to china. rogers allegedly made false statements to the federal to the federal reserve's inspector general about accessing and passage of this information, as well as his association with coconspirators coconspirators. he worked as a fed senior advisor in the division of international finance from 2010 to 2, 2021. these alleged actions ran from 2013 to 2025. in the indictment, it says that's even after he left t

joining me to discuss that, steve liesman. eve, you want to pick up on what we were just saying and, look, the data continues to be strong. >> yeah. i just got back from the american economic association annual conference in san francisco. and there were three kind of camps out there. one was if all these policies go through, it will be a disaster. on the other side, something we're very up beat about the policies. and there was sort of large group the middle that says, you know what, they're not going to do a whole lot what they will do on the campaign. interesting when i landed there's that "washington post" story that says, well, they're kind of backing off the tariff thing. went with the whole group the middle that's like, it won't be that big of a deal. so we'll have to see. and then obviously president trump says that's not really a true story. it's really hard to know. it raises that uncertainty. i'll talk more about this on the other side of what michael says. but my big concern here is that president trump is coming to

steve liesman is here.these numbers looking for even more context on this stuff. it's a lot to ask. >> yeah. so we had a little bit of improvement. if my calculations are correct, which is did i, did i cut and paste into my spreadsheet correctly on the three month annualized core? that was good. that went down to six. call it to 2.2. that was good. i think the fed's going to like that six month annualized core also fell. but rick is 100% right that the year over year is unchanged at 2.8. and that's really what the fed is looking at. that's what they've decided that that's their thing. right. that last mile is the hardest. and i'm going to actually get to some fed comments about that in just a second. the other thing is that the if i'm not mistaken, i don't have how this folds into the broader data, but this super core thing, which i hate that term because it implies something larger, it's something smaller, it's ex housing and. and food. it i have that at zero one, if i'm not mistaken. i'm just trying to fi

similar to what she told our steve liesman on friday. >> well, looking closely at this. i have to say we saw that in the first quarter of 2024. there was that bump and now we are seeing a bump again in september and october. november looked a little better, but we're seeing a potentially that we're traveling in another bump and we want to make sure that isn't just a bump and not something more permanent. >>> meanwhile, foxconn reporting record fourth quarter revenue on continued strong demand for a.i. servers. sales for nvidiapartner jumping 15% to nearly $65 billion beating forecast. however, consumer electronics which includes apple's iphone saw roughly flat year over year growth. as silvia amaro mentioned moments ago, chip stocks rising on the heels of those results. we are seeing some asml is the winner as silvia mentioned up 4% in the pre-market. some of the other names also higher, micron, advanced micro all in the green. >>> united airlines plans to start testing elon musk's starlink in flight and starting to offer it on flights as soon as this spring. speaking of

. >> i am channeling my inner steve liesman.december, it'll be where rates are now and we are likely to get a cut. >> i don't see pricing in the entire forward structure of the fed curve. i don't see any pricing at all. i think we are a ways from that. kelly, the way the fed would take that, it would let it run several months of hot job numbers accompanied by high wage numbers in which the job market showed itself to be a threat to the inflation numbers. which it's not believed to be now and persistently higher inflation, especially in the service center. that would turn the fat around but it would take several months of data. >> steve, thank you. >> you are welcome. thank you very much. >> you are welcome very much. >>> rising yields are a big part of the picture for the stock market. maybe today they are the picture for the stock market, so let's get to rich in chicago for more on the bond market rates and everything we just talked about. >> yeah, i don't know, it sounded like a lot of excuses in that last panel. it's simple.

the fed governor adriana kugler sat down with steve liesman to discuss what's coming from the central bank in 2025. for all the headlines from that interview, let's join steve. hi, stifel. >> hey, tyler. thank governor kugler seeing a stable employment picture on one side in what she called a bump in the inflation data on the other, telling cnbc in that exclusive interview the fed can take its time this year reducing straits. >> they view we can take our time to slow down maybe the pace to be more gradual. that bump that we saw the end of the year, until we see that that gets resolved, even on the other hand unemployment for some reason doesn't continue to be as resilient, we would be ready to act in a different direction. >> kugler noted the average fed official at the last meeting marked down the outlook for fed rate from 100 to 50 basis points. she wouldn't comment on the futures market pricing that has a single 325 basis point built in. she was not concerned with the rise of the unemployment rate to 4.2 from a low of 3.4, noting it rose gradually unlike recessions when it can rise

as we also discussed with bryn and steve liesman to start the show, there is optimism about what will happen despite some of the concerns about sticky inflation and escalating deficit. >> the problem is you have these cross prints. from a policy standpoint you have less change in regulation, maybe a rollback and regulation, something that is more beneficial from a tax policy standpoint but there is also a tiding mismatch because you have a regularly aggressive tariff policy and you have a relatively aggressive immigration policy that is being proposed. it is human nature to look at all of these proposals and take them at once and say, here is the ultimate it will happen but we know that is not the case. that is the benefit for investors and probably the benefit for the economy for most of this year if not all of this year where if you exclude tariffs, everything from an immigration standpoint takes a longer time to implement especially for taxes. that is not something that the president can do unilaterally. that is why we are focusing a lot more on what could happen from a tariffs sta

steve liesman and diane sworchg. >> where are we now? >> we are much higher. rates have been rising since the start of the year. today was a big one. the average year on the 30-year fixed rose nine basis points to 2.74%. and that was of course, after the hotter-than-expected jobs report. that is higher than may of last year. and in the past six weeks, we are up 66 basis points. and from the most recent low in september, rates are up over a full percentage point. here comes more math. if you are buying the median- priced home, which is around $400,000 today, and you're putting 20% down on a 30-year fixed, your monthly payment principle and interest is up. although the gains are shrinking. but there's more supply on the market. and that's not because people are listing their homes. it's because homes are just sitting much longer on the market. because, kelly, they're not selling. >> all right, diana. thank you very much. we appreciate it. by the way, the home builder sector is in the red. it's been feeling the pain. one of the stronger areas in recent years. now

tone from chairman powell. >> steve liesman joins us now to. read between the lines.steve, what was telegraphed largely expected. but there is a bit that we can kind of garner from his body language and tone. right. >> yeah. and actually the words he said to lesley, the fed keeping. >> rates unchanged, as you said at the january. >> meeting. and fed chair jay powell suggesting the pause could continue, though the direction of rates remains downward. what he said when he was asked about a march cut. here's his response. >> the economy is strong. the labor market is solid. downside risks to the labor market appear to have. >> abated. and we. think disinflation continues on a slow and. sometimes bumpy path. that tells. >> me and. >> the. >> other. >> members of the. >> committee, the broad sense of the committee actually, is that we don't need to be in a hurry. >> to. >> adjust our policy stance. >> so among factors staying the fed's hand for now, sticky inflation and uncertain fiscal policy changes from the trump administration, especially tariffs. >> and the. >> range.

everywhere else, there is pressure upward on rates >> the fed minutes were interesting today, i thought steve liesman, when they first came out, had this assessment that two-thirds of what was in the minutes indicate, would have been the case for holding or raising rates, and i thought it was very bearish, as well. >> right that was interesting and i think that that presser, which was ultra hawkish, sort of reflected that he said, if you read these minutes and knew what the outcome was, you wouldn't think that would go together this idea that the fed thinks about, what if these policies happen, and what do we need to do ront of that, where they normally just wait, see, what are the policies and how do we respond? so, all that having been said, though, i did cover a little tlt today, just because i feel like it has moved so much, and then that auction was actually -- that actually wasn't anything to be afraid of this one but i do think -- if things are going up for the right reasons -- there are some industries that can do well in this, banks for example, right rising rates could be a good thing for b

steve liesman is in washington, d.c. of course, he's getting ready for the big news conference. ready kind of seem to know? >> well, i think things are changing as we speak, david, dramatic announcements from the trump administration in just the past 24 hours when it comes to federal workers and spending, have underscored the fed's expected decision to pause and wait for greater clarity before considering additional rate cuts. the fed has already had to weigh the effects of potential tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and deportations. now it's got to fold in into the mix a potential decline in government spending. some portion of 2 million federal workers looking for jobs unclear about any of that. the federal workforce census at postal workers, it's 15% of all jobs out there in 2023. federal spending, defense and medicare, they were 12% of gdp. potential major changes to both. it's got to figure into the fed's thinking about the macro economy. so keys to the fed outlook today will be whether the fed chair and the federal reserve itself affirms this direction of rates still being d

let's bring in steve liesman for more on this because there were some questions.ently have been answered, at least for now. >> i hope so here, president trump, as soon as this weekend could levy those 25% tariffs. what we're saying he's going to do on both canada and mexico. last week, he said the us has been treated unfairly by canada, saying it had a trade deficit of 200 to $250 billion with the us. but according to us trade data, the us canada deficit is actually $41 billion is lower than the president has said a modest us trade surplus. you can see there from 2016 to 2020 turned into a deficit, in part because the us economy did better than canada. that's what happens when we do well. we import a lot of stuff, but also because of the increased importation of cheaper canadian oil. we'll talk about that in a second. now, white house official telling cnbc the president was talking more broadly, including greater us spending on defense for nato and norad in the imbalance. but the $41 billion dollar trade deficit, it is a rounding error on a $922 billion trade rela

. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: chairman, steve liesman from cnbc. mr.many davos -- the davos anyway, the president said he'll demand that interest rates drop immediately. so i guess i a -- have a three-part question. has the president done this? has he made that demand? secondly, what is your response to that and, third, what effect, if any, does a president making these kind of remarks have on policy? thank you. >> three questions. >> [inaudible] >> i'm seeing it really as one question though. so i'm not going to have any response or comment whatsoever on what the president said. it's not appropriate for me to do so. the public should be confident that we will continue to do to our work as we always have, focusing on using our tools to achieve our goals and really keeping our heads down and doing our work, and that's how to we best serve the public. >> reporter: [inaudible] communicated this demand finish. >> i've had no contact. thanks. >> nick. >> reporter: nick timiraos, "wall street journal." chair powell, you and several of your colleagues said a

are steve liesman actually from cnbc.look, i'm not going to answer anything about the president. i'm just going to say, we're going to put our head down and do our work based on what's happening in the economy. these are my words, not the winds of politics in washington. >> and when. >> asked if he had talked to the president about cutting rates right now, he said he had not. so you have a fed chief and a fed. this was a unanimous decision, by the way. all 12 members decided not to cut interest rates. you have them trying to put. >> themselves over here. >> on the side and say, we are watching inflation, we're watching the job market, we're watching consumer spending, and. >> we're trying to make sure. >> that we're doing the. >> right thing. >> with. >> rates for the rest of the for the rest of the country. this is going to. mean rates might be uncomfortably high for consumers for a while. you've got mortgage rates near 7%, you've got credit card rates at record highs. you've got, you know, car loans between 4% and 6%, d

away from the number o.f the morning, the december consumer price index, and economics reporter, steve liesman how much inflation progress we have been making. we have been talking off camera. no reason, necessarily, to be complacent because of yesterday. could be good. >> a few things might feed in, might be helpful. a couple things might be unhelpful. the market is looking for another downside in the consumer price index that we got yesterday in the consumer price index, which joe was talking about. the consensus forecast expects the winter inflation stall to continue. here is what we're looking for. zero three's and zero three's, that's not going to do it for the fed. food and energy both the same, but this would raise the year-over-year rate, 2.9% from 2.7, and food and energy, 3.3%. think about this, a half point higher than the pce. it's closer than it appears but still not good enough. by this time two years ago, we had made considerable progress bringing inflation down. check out this chart. the high was 9% in june of 2022. brought this down to 6.4, big jump in december. another big ju

ben harris, a former treasury official in the biden the brookings institute and our own steve liesmanhink it's interesting whether or not there's some down side weakness that reignites this idea that maybe the fed might cut in the first half of the year. >> rick, i think anything that a lays inflation fears -- what what are you thinking? >> if we don't get negative job growth i agree with you, i think inflation issues and general supply debt issues around the globe are going to take preference. my guess on this number would be close to steve's, right around 160,000, close to expectations. i pay particularly close attention to average hourly earnings. i think that that gives us some types of glimpse into the topics of inflation. it isn't correlated there, but obviously if the incomes remain on the high side, there's going to be an issue potentially down the road to continue to monitor higher wages and that all feeds through into higher prices. >> all right. here we go. nonfarm payrolls for the month of december on our jobs, jobs, jobs report, way hot, 256,000. >> wow. >> what a shocker

steve liesman is here with more. steve, does this change anything? >> immediately.is not going to be clearcut for the fed either . the numbers as you reported are better than expected but it's not a green light for the fed to cut rates anytime soon. let's go through the numbers. 0.4%, worse than the prior month on the headline number but what everyone is watching, that came in better than the prior month and better than expectations. year-over-year, 2.9%. that's not good for the fed. the court, 3.2%. not good enough for the fed. housing seems to be helping. at least not getting worse. it's up 0.3%. airfares, that number is expected to be temporary. core services, 0.2%. goods, well-behaved despite the fact new cars were up. clothing was well behaved as well. taking a look at the early forecasters, they have their numbers and they come up with the fed's preferred indicator that comes at the end of the month and it is expected to be well-behaved around 0.13 to 0.18 , roughly unchanged from november but if you look at the three to six month gauges if that is the way to

our steve liesman got the numbers. morning, steve. >> hey good morning carl.word. higher inflation but also more growth. that's the assessment of respondents to the cnbc fed survey. when asked about the effects of president trump's expected suite of policies. extremely inflationary, 5%, 59% say somewhat inflationary, 23% say not inflationary or deflationary at all, and 14% see them as deflationary. we'll get to that in just a second. what about on growth? they're also viewed, however, positively for growth 14% say very positive, 46% say somewhat positive, 9% no effect. and a third believe they could be potentially negative for growth. now let's look at the individual policies. and this is where it gets really interesting because take tax policy a respondents are divided on the inflationary effects of tax policy about a third each way. deregulation though seen as disinflationary. you can see there going to the right there. but then look at immigration and terror policy both seen as negative pushing inflation higher. now let's take a look at it from a growth sta

steve liesman is joining us now, after friday, it scares people to see, if the economy is too hot, if my question is, we thought that some of the weather or hurricane could have made the number hotter than what people were thinking, so could this even be better than the 0.2, and half as hot as we thought? >> yeah, it could be, and i want to amend what you were saying and see if we agree with it, we want lots of jobs and low inflation, that is what we want, this is a big deal, joe. and what it does, it shows some of the things that got people freaked out last month and i will mention a couple of items, eggs were up 55% i want to say, fresh fruits and vegetables were up 33%. and that is, that actually fell 14%. we had a lot of one offs, but the big story might be the trade services which to your point, up 7%, now they are down 0.1. this is going to help, i don't know if it tells us anything about tomorrow necessarily although the foodstuff does follow pretty well from ppi to the cpi, but what it does do is combined of the ppi and the cpi, is going to make people feel better about the pc

journal today from phil graham and larry summers, which was brought to our attention this morning by steve liesman nine. history. yes. >> those two guys getting together, it's like oil and water mixing. but if sarah is telling me i don't care about the kale stuff, as you can tell by looking at me. >> kohlrabi. >> but if it's bacon going up, there's a lot of people going to be very upset. >> including you, i guess. >> steve. well, i'm not going to say anything. but anyway, it says for more, let's bring in austan goolsbee. should i read that? >> yes. >> okay. let's bring in austan goolsbee. chicago fed president first on cnbc. austin, good morning. i want to start off with the easy question. what do you make of today's pce numbers the inflation numbers. do you are you confident that inflation is headed back towards target. and how high is that confidence of yours. >> well i'm liking this pce number. it was expected and it was even a little better than expected. i don't make too much of any one month. but you know, i've been saying that i felt like we are on path to 2%. i have comfort, i won't say ov

i think steve liesman was there for some of these comments. think that's who these comments were made to. maybe i'm wrong. >>> microsoft planning to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 that ends in june. that's on the construction of ai data centers. if you thought that maybe there was like an ai bubble or something, at least in the construction of infrastructure, not anytime soon. the company's vice chair brad smith saying in a blog post more than half the infrastructure spending will take place in the u.s. he called on the incoming trump administration to protect the company's leadership in ai through education and promotion of the u.s.'s ai technology abroad. >>> we have a lot more coming up on "squawk." it is a huge jobs week in america, we will get you ready for the trading week ahead as well and a programming note, we have an exit interview happening with outgoing ftc chair lina khan. it's an interview you do not want to miss, it's going to happen tomorrow 8:30 a.m. eastern time only on "squawk box." what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you n

senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with more. dramatic announcements from the trump administration in just the past 24 hours have underscored the fed's apparent stance of waiting for greater clarity on fiscal policy before thinking about additional rate cuts, the fed already had to weigh the effects of potential tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and deportations, but now it has to put into the mix well potential a potential meaningful decline in government spending and some portion of 2 million federal workers looking for jobs in the next several months. we don't know how that plays out. some of the elements of the trump policy suite could be disinflationary, and could let the fed keep cutting others. for example, tariffs are a strong rebound in capital spending, could require the fed to remain on hold or even hike rates compared to how markets priced. the outlook for rate cuts after the december meeting. futures are now priced for a less of a chance of a cut in march, about the same even chance of a may cut, but a greater probabil

steve liesman joins us now with the results steve. >> good morning andrew. yeah.my over the next year and indicated less pricing pressure. for now, though, more expect to be hiking prices in the next three months. a warning sign, perhaps, for inflation. the first quarter survey from the national association for business economics shows a significant drop in the recession outlook, 82% of respondents putting the probability of recession at less than 25% last quarter. just 56% were that optimistic, and just 15% see the odds as greater than 1 in 4. now, over the past three months, the net percent raising prices came in at 22, down 11 points, but 35% saying they would be raising prices in the next three months. got to watch that one. the net percent with higher material costs rising five points, but there's less wage pressure you can see there and also less net hiring going on. layoff intentions, however, were muted, capital spending rising seven points to 19. that's a good sign when it comes to the new administration. 69% say they have not adjusted their hiring or cap

steve liesman joins us right now with more on this. ng today and that continuing over tomorrow, what will they jump out at them most from these data points we just got? >> well, you know. >> rick really zeroed in on the right numbers. i just want to put a little detail on it, which is the big decline. the big miss came from essentially civilian aircraft. that's boeing. i think there was an expectation that new orders from boeing would actually be rebounding. at this point. they were down 45% becky. so that's a reason that's where a lot of the weakness came from. you also had a decline in defense shipments and capital goods orders. but what rick did was zero in on the part. the nondefense capital goods ex aircraft. why do we care about that. that feeds into the gdp numbers. and when that was revised up in the prior month, as well as coming in strong this month, it's going to help her flatter some of the forecasts for gross domestic product as well as other economic activity that's out there. so steady as she goes with some variable notio

liesman pollyanna. people are worried about inflation again. a strong jobs number. i said that would be the worst thing on friday. it was. steveaid it's not a bad thing. then it happened. he said it is still not a bad thing. after it happened. he still said. >> did you read the "wall street journal" on bonds? >> the weekend? >> yesterday online. >> that's right. it's online. >> it was such a weird convoluted story why bond yields may not be a bad thing and buying into it. it was kind of convoluted. >> it cannot be a bad thing if your fear is inflation. don't we get a couple? >> cpi and ppi. >> i think we get something. you know what? within a couple of weeks, we'll get something. >> that is true. >> you can count on that. >>> we have other news to bring you this morning. jeff bezos' blue origin calling off the inaugural launch of the glenn rocket. it was trying to identify a subsystem beyond the launch window. it was slated to take off at 1:00 a.m. from cape canaveral. it had 1:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m. to takeoff. it had been delayed before because of weather and when they could get that launch window from nasa. morgan brennan wil