let's bring in steve moore the senior economics writer for "the wall street journal" the piece you wrote, steve, was astounding. all of this battling over the budget and the cuts we're going to make and threatening to shut down the government and you say we didn't cut a dime from the federal budget? >> yeah. it's an amazing story, jon. it has really been overshadowed the last few weeks by the payroll tax controversy but i think this is the big story of 2011 is that, as you correctly said, we had two near-government shutdowns. we had the downgrading of the u.s. debt. remember that happened in august. we had, remember, jon, the super-committee that was supposed to cut a trillion dollars out of the budget. don't forget a year ago we had an election where republicans said they would cut $100 billion out of the budget. here we are at the end of the year, by my calculations backed up by the senate budget committee looks like we didn't cut one penny of the budget. looks like we're going to have 50 to $100 billion increase in government spending in 2012 which you asked the right question, what h

. >>> to talk more about that, let's go to wall street journal senior economic writer steve moore. morning, steve. >> good morning, chris. >> you know all the plans out there. let's talk about what some democrats have hinted. they'd like to use savings from winding down wars. is that a viable solution? >> well, it's pretty iffy whether we'll get those savings, chris. i think republicans would probably reject that. we don't know what's going to happen in afghanistan and iraq. the one thing that kelly was just reporting that i know is a political nonstarter is this idea of an income tax surcharge on people in the highest income tax bracket. we had a vote thursday or friday in the senate, it went down in flames. doi believe we'll get this payroll tax cut extended for a year, but it's not going to be paid for with higher taxes. this idea that kelly was talking about, about using some of the savings that were identified by the super committee, that sounds like a pretty good idea to me. i think you could get a bipartisan consensus for that. >> is your sense that there has to be a biparti

first to steve moore, politically speaking, getting into an election, let's say newt gingrich, versus obama's own tax plans. as you know, who wins with the american public on that debate? >> well, obama wants to go to 45% to 50% on the tax rate, newt gingrich wants to go to 15%. so you're talking about a massive difference in philosophy and governing philosophy, and i will say this. i think newt wins that fight and i think that's what this election will be about. do we want growth or do we want envy? >> robert reich? >> well, look, and i think the election is going to be about paying their fair share. are the wealthiest in this country paying their fair share to bring the budget deficit down and make sure that there is enough money left for schools and equal opportunity and investments and infrastructure for everybody else. steve moore and newt gingrich want to go back to what we had pre-1930s when we had a very unequal society and a society that did not -- and was not able to invest -- >> bob, you keep saying rich aren't paying the top 1% pay 40% of the income tax. >> most people und

joining us live steve moore senior economics writer for the "wall street journal". pay more for europe's largesse? >> you put it well. what the people at the imf the institution that would be doing this bailing out of the european banks, will say is that this money will be repaid. i think the american taxpayers understand that by some estimates over a third of that money that will be le t to these european banks a bailout come from the united states taxpayer, from the united states government i'm not sure that plays well given we already have a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit our service. that is going to be a heavy lift for president obama and tim fat geithner to explain to the american people -- time geithner to explain the american people. >> heavy lift? what do you say to us if we have to shell out more? >> to give the president his due. integrated world economy if europe falls and those banks collapse it could have a reverberation here in the united states and there's some truth to that, no the question is whether the right way to deal with this crisis is to have a

having the numbers that steve moore reared to there. incex showed prices dropped in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. jonah, what do you make of the news? >> i think the news is generally, it's not terrible news but it's not good news either. i think this is basically as good as it gets for as far as the eye can see. it gives the obama administration the ability to say hey it's not getting worse which i don't think is that great politically and keep up with this kennard they stopped the next great depression. won't see reagan era expleive growth that got reagan to landslide victory. >> there was good news. consumer confidence suspect. it's at the highest sips it was since april. what do you make of that kirsten? >> i think that there has been a lot of good news, retail sales rupp. the last unemployment numbers were good and i agree with jonah i think most people look for and it don't see it going gang busters, steady improvement but not really turning around completely. in this kind of economic crisis that's not that surprising. the question

gregg: steve moore great to see you as always. thanks very much.this thursday, december 15th, a fox news gop presidential debate gets underway in iowa, 9pm eastern, 6:00 pacific time. you will have access to instant analysis at foxnews.com/debate. martha: the supreme court in this breaking news just about 15 minutes ago say they will indeed take up arizona's controversial illegal immigration law. this is huge in terms of the election ramifications of this decision and healthcare. our legal panel will be here in a few minutes to weigh in on that. did you see this. good grieve if you turned off the tv a couple minutes early you missed it. he is on fire, folks, another last second impossible win for tim tebow and the denver broncos. somebody up there likes him. gregg: he has the will to win, no matter what. welcome idaho, where they grow america's favorite potoes. everyone knows idaho potatoes taste great. but did you know they'reood for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark

steve moore and newt gingrich want to go back to what we had pre1930s when we had a very unequal society a society that did not and was not able to invest. >> you keep saying that. the top 1% pay 40% of the income tax. >> steve, i think most people understand what's really going on. they know that there is no trickle down. they know that there is no trickle down economics. >> they know we can't tax our way back. >> they know the game is rigged in favor of the rich and powerful. and that's -- >> that's why we need a flat tax. wolf, we agree. that's why we need a flat tax. >> no. >> all right, gentlemen. i think -- >> rejected, overall. >> a good debate. a solid debate. i suspect we're going to be hearing a lot more on this debate in the come beiing weeks months. stephen moore and robert reich, thank you. >>> mitt romney met with wall street executives and the left quickly pounced on him. but are they being hypocritical? you're going to find out how much the democratic president is also getting from big business. >>> plus, the list is revealed by a terrorist group hezbollah. and it could p

interesting question from jeb bush this morning, and i'm joined by steve moore who is a senior economic street journal." good morning. >> hi, martha. martha: a very interesting piece. what did you think of it? >> those questions arnott directed so much at the american people but at barack obama. i think this was a very important piece we had in the "wall street journal" today, first because it put jeb bush back into the spotlight and boy does the republican party need somebody like that now. it was a direct assault at that speech that you and i talked about a couple of weeks ago that birmingham bam gave, remember the one that he basically said the middle class is stuck and the reason they can't get ahead is because the rich stole all the money, and that the american dream has basically i will lewded the american class. what jeb bush is saying here and i think this is a very important piece is that look, the american dream still exists, this is a count throw that is aspirational. anyone can get rich in this country if they work hard, do the right things. i thought it was very up lifting

signs but we want to be cautious about this as we move into 2012 and work through some of this with steve moore, senior economics writer for "the wall street journal" steve, let's take this bit by bit, stocks, jobs and could be my. stock market is up today. been a pretty good week. is this your typical santa claus rally where stocks look cheap and people go shopping before the end of the year? >> jenna, three days before christmas i will be totally positive what is going on with the economy. it is not hard. the numbers are looking pretty good. the stock market has had a great rally the last few days. these new unemployment numbers that came out today suggesting unemployment insurance claims have fallen for the most amount since at least three or four months. that's a very good sign. and, jenna, what that is suggesting to us when the new unemployment rate numbers come out in about a week and a half, i think we may see another decline which would be a super, super, you know, new year's present to get. so yeah, this economy looks like it has shifted out of the kind of low gear and moved into a mid

steve moore here yesterday. how about bush and, you know, how about bush and paul ryan? who knows.oo late, right? bill: good for us to talk about. martha: we like talking about it. bill: he suspended his campaign for the white house but who would herman cain support now? and who wins iowa two weeks from today? he's next in studio. [ male announcer ] in his eyes...a race needs no finish line. ♪ in her eyes... the world is never too big. in his...the weather should never keep you inside. ♪ because they see no limits, there's eukanuba nutrition designed to help their body go as far as their mind wants to. eukanuba. extraordinary nutrition for extraordinary beings. see the difference in 28 days or your money back. ♪ . martha: david bowie. that happens to be my favorite christmas song in the world. thank you for that in the control room and now we've got a great story for you because scores of u.s. troops are coming home for the holidays. the finest gift he could bring is one his kids may never forget. sergeant louie costa wasn't supposed to be home from afghanistan in six months. look

we're going to try to make sense of this with steve moore, senior economics writer for "the wall streeto you make sense of what we saw over the last 24 hours? >> you did a pretty good job of explaining what the fed did. it's very complicated, and the way i'll put it, jenna, for your audience is, essentially, it's like a sugar fix. you know, the fed lowered the rates that european banks can borrow money from u.s. banks for, and the markets went wild. but the problem as you know, jenna, with a sugar fix is you come down from that sugar fix. jenna: it's the worst. [laughter] >> that's what we're seeing right now with the market down a little bit today. i don't think these kinds of actions by the fed have a long lasting effect. we see with the rate cuts that have happened over the last couple years you get the immediate injection of steroids, and then it comes down. i wonder whether this is the right thing to do because in my opinion, jenna, the real problems in europe are not monetary. they are the problems with these huge, obese welfare states that they simply can't afford any longer. jen

steve moore, economics writer for "the wall street journal" he joins us now. make of these forecasts going on? >> a little christmas cheer here. jenna: why not? >> some good forecasts. the first half of this year the economy grew by less than 1% which is barely crawling. now the economists are saying maybe 3 1/2, maybe, as high as 4% growth. that's a good number but you know the bad news here --. jenna: here we go. didn't even have to ask. >> i'm an economist myself. we're not very good predicting these things. these are predict shuns. they're not actual result. >> we'll take that for what it is worth. we see the numbers and three reading on economic growth every time it is revised. that shifts a lot. based on what we're seeing do these reading show we might see job creation, some job growth? >> if we were to get 3 1/2 to 4% growth in the economy for the fourth quarter, that is the equivalent of 250,000 jobs a month. yeah, that would mean the unemployment rate is going to come down. the real question is this sustainable? what we've seen in the last 18 months,

steve moore is with the "wall street journal." >> good news on the unemployment numbers.ght see another dip in a month from now. let's keep our fingers crossed that the trend continues. we're out of the really severe jobs recession that we were in the summer, that is some good news. jenna: can we be confident by the way -- we are seeing fewer americans filing for unemployment. can we be confident that we are seeing people file for work, not just have people drop off not looking for work. >> we did see that on friday showing that the unemployment even came down but a lot of people dropped out of the labor force because they became discouraged workers, they are not even looking for work. we don't know for sure why the number dropped this week, but i think it's a little of both. jenna: take the good news until we are proven otherwise. that is a way to go into the end of the year, we want to see the trend improve. here we are with the payroll tax extension. when we have a trend in our favor for now what does that mean. >> at the end of this year this 2 percentage point reduct

we're going to talk about this with steve moore as we take in what looks like a santa claus rally onraldo is here to talk about new developments in iraq, and larry sabato has his crystal ball out today. he'll discuss the anti-incumbent election myth. that's all coming up top of the hour. bill: all right, we'll see you, jenna. watch out who you call old around here. jenna: what do you mean? bill: the fbi is saying the so-called geezer bandit may not be what he says. we'll explain. martha: well, you might say a little too much of the holiday cheer for one commuter across the pond. look at this. look at her. under she went. woman in britain should have been minding the gas as they say there when you get on the train. she took a tumble right off the platform. let's watch it again. there she goes. other passengers, though, quickly pulled her back to safety. that is the good end that story. over and over again. she only got bumps and scrapes, we're told. british police say they released the video to highlight the dangers of excessive holiday drinking, folks, and if that won't stay in your

. >> alisyn: we shall see what repercussions it has, steve moore from the "wall street journal," thanks of them yet. >> dave: thanks for paying attention, steve, appreciate it. what gift do you get the guy who seems to have everything? we'll see what made our list. next! ♪ my name is robin. i'm a wife, i'm a mom... and chantix worked for me. it's a medication i could take and still smoke, while it built up in my system. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantiis proven to help people quit smoking. it reduthe urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking orood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these, stop taking chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of depression or other mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reactioto it. if you develop these, stop taking chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. if you have a histo

as senator john mccain, woody harrelson as mccain adviser, and "hardball" regular steve schmidt and the great julien moore take a look. >> we desperately need a game changing pick, and none of these middle-aged white guys are game changers. >> so find me a woman. >> sarah, sarah! >> i will be honored to accept your nomination for vice president of the united states. >> that's irresistible. the movie's going to debut in march. i can't wait. that's on the script, and i mean it, i can't wait. we'll be right back. uyjl6ns'4m4oxl,f3+ >>> we're back. now something we've done in the past couple of years. the tables get turned right now and i'm going to be grilled, well, somewhat, by, and i mean it, the great kathleen matthews, who anchored the news here in washington for a while, and then became, as she is now, a top executive for marriott international, and has travelled the world. i sit at home at night and she tells me about china and what's happening in the amazon and what's happening in the new st. petersburg in russia. and i'm here, you know, in washington, d.c., covering local politics nationally here, an

as senator john mccain, woody harrelson as mccain adviser, and "hardball" regular steve schmidt and the great julien mooreerately need a game changing pick, and none of these middle-aged white guys are game changers. >> so find me a woman. >> sarah, sarah! >> i will be honored to accept your nomination for vice president of the united states. >> that's irresistible. the movie's going to debut in march. i can't wait. that's on the script, and i mean it, i can't wait. we'll be right back. ♪ you, you ain't alone ♪ and just let me be [ male announcer ] this is your moment. ♪ your ticket home ♪ [ male announcer ] this is zales, the diamond store. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. premier of the packed bag. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the

senator john mccain, woody harrelson as mccain adviser, and "hardball" regular steve schmidt and the great julieann mooreneed a game changing pick, and none of these middle-aged white guys are game changers. >> so find me a woman. >> sarah, sarah! >> i will be honored to accept your nomination for vice president of the united states. >> that's irresistible. the movie's going to debut in march. i can't wait. that's on the script, and i mean it, i can't wait. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] imagine facing the day with less chronic low back pain. imagine living your life with less chronic osteoarthritis pain. imagine you, with less pain. cymbalta can help. cymbalta is a non-narcotic treatment that's fda-approved to manage chronic musculoskeletal pain. one pill a day, every day, can help reduce this pain. tell your doctor right away if your mood worsens, you have unusual changes in mood or behavior or thoughts of suicide. antidepressants can increase these in children, teens, and young adults. cymbalta is not approved for children under 18. people taking maois or thioridazine or with uncontrolled gla

steve jobs number one on her ten most fascinating people of 2011 list. >>> and finally, it's the burning social question of our era. how quickly should a divorced woman change her twitter handle? demi moore, who is still using the name @mrs. kutcher said, sorry it bothers so many of you. should i not tweet until i do? does it not matter? >> i'm on her side. >> agreed. >>> and this comes to us from los angeles, california, where the world's third smallest baby since records have been kept is alive and well after beating seemingly insurmountable odds. melissa came into the world weighing less than a soda can. born four months early she tipped the scales at a little over half a pound. >> wow. >> unbelievable. now she weighs more than four pounds. she's thriving. her amazing survival story is about to begin a new chapter when doctors allow her to leave for her family's home on new year's day. >>> i'm lynn berry and this is "early today," just your first stop of the day today on your nbc station. >> live, local, late-breaking, this is wbal-tv 11 news today. >> good morning. we're off to a mild start of this a thursday morning. it is dry. 46 at the airport. 43 in parkton. about 10 degrees warm