joining me is steven englander. i want to start with you. how nervous have you been?> not very nervous. frameworkey have the be any changes would reflected and it would stabilize the economy eventually. you help manage to billion over in russia. surely you know this. you are getting whacked and the volatility is high. what makes you confident? the efficiency is rising and prices have come down a lot. the long-term outlook remains positive and -- >> do you think the long-term outlook for russia is positive? have they got a grip on the situation? long-term -- even if it -- i agreeistance that most of what we are seeing is driven by the oil prices exacerbated by capital outflows. the question is important. if the oil price stabilizes and if the macro economic policy makers have a handle on things and are able to take the pain to keep capital within russia, it will stabilize. there are a lot of moving parts and it is not clear how it will evolve. high, whatstay this ?oes that mean for investments >> they are not leveraged and companies have been wary of taking note of tha

moving down rapidly, then financial markets try and readjust. >> still with us in washington is steven englanderl head of fx strategy at citi. steven, in terms of the decline in oil prices, what type of comments or reaction should we expect from the fed? there is a belief that the decline in oil prices are just for the consumer. but it's truly not good for inflation, which is still well below the fed's target of 2%. well, i think the fed is likely to -- excuse me, likely to distinguish between a temporary drop in inflation because of oil prices. stanley fischer characterized that as a supply shock. the reason they look at inflation is to gauge wh demand is adequate. i think they're going to look at the stronger economy, the improvements in labor markets which seems to be accelerating. and i think that's going the be the main focus. i expect they'll give some indication for a gradual normalization. i do have some swamp land in florida whose price i'd like them to support. they've said in the past they wouldn't raise rates despite a financial bubble except in a last resort. the oil decline is pain

. >> steven englander is the global head of strad strategy at citi. where would you be placing your betts for the next year? >> i would place them on the long dollar. in fact, i disagree with steve because i really think that the issue isn't whether europe is in deflation or not or what the interest rate is. the issue is the measures that the europeans are going to take to get themselves out of deflation. right now, the only policy tools they are is money printing. they disappointed the markets yesterday be being more tentative about the schedule. all of the indications are they are going to get. his focus was on hitting their mandate and the lower oil prices are going to do a lot of damage to the inflation numbers in the coming months. i would say that, you know, the strong dollar on the trade base just isn't that strong. we're up maybe 5%, 6% since the beginning of the year because we don't trade as much with japan as we do with china. and conversely, the euro isn't as weak when it seems when you look at the move against the dollar. the trading part

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