steven ricchiuto right now. let's get it out of the way. the recession call. where is it? even: we have a hard landing call. we are down 1.5%, negative gdp in the first quarter. we think second-quarter gdp is below 1.75%. we think gdp everywhere is below the cbo estimate. that is a growth recession. is it possible we get another quarter of negative gdp? the ask. we will not have a recession. there are not fundamental imbalances to give us a classical recession. tom: are we at a point where the fed should just raise rates? just come out and get it done now so we can move on, or do they stay on a meeting schedule? steven: they will stay on a meeting schedule. forward rates have moved dramatically. forward rates will reverse some of the titans and start to unfold -- some of the tightening and start to unfold back where they were. james bullard keeps pushing the envelope to the end of the year. the market is getting as close to 3% by the end of the year. that is discounted into the marketplace. you are seeing a ubiquitous impact in terms of the interest-rate sensitive sectors.