we have been talking with steven roach about the consumer and the problems with the consumer.the sector in some of the stocks. >> we have been overweight, becky, for quite some time. 700 basis points. when you look at q1 earnings growth, probably somewhere in the 6% to 7% earnings growth coming out of that sector. it is on the back of the wealth affect, increase in housing price, certainly the equity market is doing better. and the consumer discretionary stocks have done a lot of hard work on the operating expense side. they have been able to kind of pull the efficiencies out of that sector maybe more so than any other sector. it's been a really good place to be the last 12 to 18 months. >> steven has made very valid points about troubles facing the consumer. some of the big issues out there the last five years, many have been struggling. and here in the united states we have zombie consumers walking around. how do you pair up what we see with some of the numbers coming in from the government economic numbers with what's going on with with some of these stocks. is it a dispari

this morning on "squawk box" steven roach was on and said one of the things that frustrated him aboutre all talking about the american consumer coming back. he said, they have not. the retail sales prove him out today. secondarily the fact that the cyprus situation is being reopened. as you look at gold and oil and copper and look at the yield on the ten year. there's a strong sense of deflation entering the game. you want to be careful about that. oil is is going to try to defend $15. this could be an interesting day. >> if there's one thing determined against it it's deflation. and therefore if the deflation risks are growing, the likelihood is that the fed is going to act stronger for longer, which appears by definition to mean that the equity marks will go higher. >> not necessarily. let us not forget what happened in japan. now they've suddenly roused themselves up again. but they've fought a deflationary pressure for ten years now and try to get things in order. yes, the fed is alert. we read what bernanke said. we know they're at the ready. they're going to try anything and eve