tom: i want to fold that into what sam stovall just said. how much of our audience is folding in 7.2% inflation in six months? if you have oil here, can you get inflation down to that stovall level? jonathan: we know that people's ideas of future price growth is shaped by energy. we also know that when you go to pay your rent and you are negotiating what that looks like each year, that story is getting harder and harder for people to meet. that will be sticky, and that is the call into year-end. even if energy comes in, this fit has more work to do. lisa: it is not just rats, medical spence is -- expenses that people are seeing with inflation. i want to hear the communication from opec-plus as to why they made such a small move. is it because of a lack of demand or constrained supply? jonathan: it cannot be there targets. according to the team at bloomberg, we are not sure if we get a press conference from opec after the decision. it will be interesting to see what the white house has to say. we will catch up with isaac boltansky. ritika: ke

sam stovall, perfect timing, we thank you. perfect expertise.untdown." "kudlow" is next. sean: hello, everyone, welcome to a special edition of "kudlow," i'm sean duffy in for larry kudlow. president biden is speaking in wilkes-barre, pennsylvania, our producers are listening and we'll keep you updated if he says anything interesting. joining me brian kilmeade, host of "fox & friends," host of "one nation" with brian kilmeade. thank you for being here. talking about crime today. did he poll th

. >> sam stovall makes the point that in the past, 50% retracement cost and i know this because you are all over fibonacci levels, your favorite technical indicator, but we have often retested those. we have never made a new low, but we have retested lows, so what do you think closing above the 4231 level means for the markets? >> let's throw in another layer of fibonacci. when you come back to the 50% retracement, people who follow fibonacci sell between the 50 and the 618. that would probably line up with where jeff is looking at, the 200 day moving average being resistance in the overall market place, but i have a problem with that step. i don't really understand that step, to be frank. if you look back at the january high, forget right now that we are in august, if you look back, there are plenty of times we rallied off recent bottoms more than 50% only to make new lows because there was that june low. who says that the june low is the carved in stone that we are moving off the fibonacci is? that is the beauty of fibonacci's. you look back to see where you get that retracement. righ

this woman does not serve in the as of battalion early, as felt to nigel gold. stovall says, senior fellow for russia and you're a shabby international institute for strategic studies. he has rushes claims don't hold up under close examination. on the one hand, it, sir, if, if their version is to be believed, ah, then it represents the massive intelligence failure. it's not a small matter for some to be blown up in or around moscow, but secondly, and equally impulsively, it seems to me that they claim to have solved the case with unprecedented speed it typically, kate takes months or even years or often never for a political mergers to be sold and yet the f as b, the russia security. so as claims with don as a matter of ours. and i think everyone looking at the kind of details they're providing, are you come to the conclusion? there's nothing credible about the story that they have put together. it almost seems, in a bizarre way designed to be disbelieved. the ideal to a woman and her 12 year old daughter drove into russia in a mini cooper and then fled the scene. or having carried out thi

that would be stan stovall. we thank him this morning.orning, what's your lead theme given the volatility? sam: that we end up retesting the june 16 low, but right now our belief is we do not set a lower low. right now, increased volatility in september. but i think we will get through this ok. tom: the hallmark of your father's work and your work is corporate analysis. explain your confidence in margin resiliency in corporations until the end of the year and next year. sam: we are just beginning the final months of the third quarter, earnings estimates are affected to be about 4.3% this quarter, however six of the 11 sectors in the s&p are predicted to show declines. but when we look at the profit margins, they have held up exceptionally well in the second quarter. they were expected to be down by 5.3% and they were in line. so, we are expecting to see some continued whittling in profit margins, primarily as inflation remains sticky, as price hikes for inputs, etc., are felt by corporations. the question will be what kind of damage will

tend to be the start of a new bull market rather than a bear rally old market historians like sam stovall cfra, a lot of people were talking about this over the weekend and noting how far we have come with a variety of sectors that are more than 20% off their lows if you want to call that a bull market for that sector, go ahead, but it was rather diverse, and the bulls are right about this besides cathie wood's ark innovation, consumer discretionary, 27% off the mid-june low technology as a group, 22% off the low. semi-conductors even better than that the small caps, the russell 2000, 22% off their lows in june and the dow transports, this is not just obviously big cap tech stocks or cathie wood stocks this is a very diverse group of different companies, different sectors that are doing very well right now. so we also see things like banks that are 21% above their lows. utilities as well. so it's a pretty broad rally you can't just say it's technology stocks. that lends credence to the fact that we are definitely in an up trend. the thing that has happened that has caused consternation is