at the university of strathclyde in the u. k. thank you very much. for speaking to us professor what's your understandingng of. why it is that a deal wasn't struck this evening. well i think my understanding is that therere are two issues the firs. is that the base all the treaty thought the technicical nenegotiations i in brussels oft yet resesult. is to do with the administration off the i. t. givenn the north at all and is going to o be parkedd in the custom u. k. customs union on jan.n. still part of the new custstom you're in so that's one issue in bruruels still too resolvlve. but i i thinknk beyoe obvious you're not resolve the prime minister bryce johnson is hoping to work out. whether or not what's now seems to be on the table for brussels is capable of being called through the house of commons. so far crucially the democratic unionist ours nororthern on units.s. i have not indicated that are necessary bring to block the job a lot of soul but they have concerns still. about the fob that the proposals are likely to mean the hostage customs bo

joining us now is john curtice, professor of politics, university of strathclyde and one of the uk'ss. at this point, the starting gun bandeen standard -- sounded. it deal expect there will be any change by the end of this process? john: perhaps there will be at the moment given the conservatives are ahead in the polls. the chances of boris johnson getting a majority are relatively good. but by no means guaranteed. in order to get a majority, the conservatives need to retain because they are expected to lose seats to the scottish national party and the liberal who are revived. the conservatives have to make some gains in labour. , heif the polls are correct should get a majority. one important thing, boris johnson does have to win this election if he is going to keep the keys to 10 downing street. if he has anything less than a majority, he is probably out because on brexit the conservatives no longer have any friends and have fallen out with the democrats in northern ireland. could be expected to create an understanding with the scottish national party, the nationalists, the greens

earlier my colleague huw edwards spoke to sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclydee government was under no obligation to call a general election at this time. given particularly the government couldn't persuade the house of commons to back holding an early election using the procedure that has been laid down in law, we are now going to bypass that through what is going through today. of course there is no obligation. the government could have decided to use the extension time that is available between now and the 31st of january to progress its bill. the concern it has is in so far as it wasn't there when we had a programme motion through and therefore the house of commons might have a relatively leisurely look at the government's bill, i think the government concern is that this increases the risk that the bill would be amended in such a way that the coalition of people who gave it the majority of 30 would fall apart. for example if it were to be the case the house of commons were to say the united kingdom should try to remain inside the customs union in the next

professor of politics at strathclyde university, and hejoins me from our studio in glasgow. about where voters stand now, have they changed their mind? they have been asked so many times, especially in the last year or so, when those negotiations continued to be protracted and difficult. looking at the latest polling, have many voters changed their minds? no, the honest truth is that not very many voters have changed their minds. typically, when voters are asked how they would vote in another referendum, we get between 85% and 90% of those people who voted in the 26 to referendum saying they would do the same thing again. that said, it is true that the polls do tend to show, rather than the narrow lead for leave which there was in the referendum, a narrow lead for remain, but that arises essentially not so much because of people who'd changed their minds, but those people who didn't vote three years ago, according to the polls, are rather more likely to say they would vote remain rather than leave. so in truth this is not the most politically interesting poll, for the most p

good to have you with us once strathclyde. good to have you with us once again. good evening.inister and leader of the opposition both of whom are saying they really want this election, can we know one thing straightaway, it is still open to the government, only one still open to the government to put its religious legislation through the house, there is no obligation on the government at all to go after an election at this stage. not at all. given particularly the government couldn't persuade the house of commons to back holding an early election using the procedure that has been laid down in law, we are now going to bypass that through what is going through today. of course there is no obligation. the government could have decided to use the extension time that is available on the 31st of january to progress its time that is available on the 31st ofjanuary to progress its bill. the concern it has is in so far as it wasn't there when we had a programme motion through and therefore the house of commons might have a relatively leisurely look at the government's bill, i think th

let's discuss this more with sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at strathclyde university.you as the potential routes for boris johnson? firstly, we must realise that christmas is coming. and if we make the assumption that the latest possible date that everybody might agree is reasonable to hold an election is 12 december, then frankly, and bear in mind the following, if the government forced through a vote of no—confidence, it takes seven weeks before you can call the election. that effectively means if the —— we are going to have an election by 12 december, it needs to happen tomorrow, and i don't think it will. so that mechanism is now ruled out. it is still open to the opposition parties to put down a vote of no—confidence in the belief they can replace the government an alternative one. but getting an election decided christmas, we will have run out of rubber. the one line bill could be done — if it's either that, or simply as a two thirds of mps, that would be five weeks notice. we have the first thursday in novemberfor that notice. we have the first thursday in novem

we'rejoined now from glasgow by sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at university of strathclyde. from number ten, what is the picture as you see it with a5 minutes before the prime minister gets to his feet? the picture so far on four against a deal is as you have just described it, basically all depend on how many labour mps it, basically all depend on how many labourmps are it, basically all depend on how many labour mps are likely to vote with the government. estimates vary between nine and 12, f and gets towards 12 are slightly more the government will probably be there, effort falls away from nine the government, we will not get the but we have to remember that as a crucial amendment put down by oliver littman in favour of the deal who is also poised to no deal and the effect of the amendment will be that the house of commons will not say yes or no to this deal, it will be less look at the bill we will have to pass before we can leave the eu and it will make a decision about whether or not in the end we can give approval to this once we have the legislation through. because

let us talk now to professorjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.ters, those who voted leave and remain in the referendum, where they are at with the deal, what do they make of it? they make of it somewhat differently from the way they reacted to mrs may's deal, that was unpopular among remain and believe voters. borisjohnson‘s deal, still not very popular among women voters, according to the first polling evidence this morning —— among remaining voters. 0nly i9% approve. among the the figure stands at two thirds. still means there is at two thirds. still means there is a third of leave voters to be persuaded. but insofar as boris johnson faces the risk tomorrow of not getting the deal through and in the wake of that finds himself going to the country, that will give him some comfort that the battle he would then face in such a contest, effectively to persuade leave voters that despite the fact for the third time ina that despite the fact for the third time in a row the government will have failed to deliver brexit, they should still be voting for h

sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at strathclyde university, has been speaking to martha kearneyto deliver on his "do or die" pledge to leave the eu on october 31st could end up benefiting the brexit party. inevitably, the answer to that question, martha, is perhaps. i can certainly find you polling out there. indeed, some of it was released again yesterday, that asked people, if we haven't left by the end of october, how will you vote? and the conservative vote as reported in those circumstances goes down and the brexit party vote goes up. but of course, the way in which borisjohnson has been playing this has been very much in such a way as to try to avoid the blame for not leaving at the end of october. it of course starts with saying it's all to do with parliament and the benn act. it's to do with the reluctance of parliament to actually pass the programme motion. it's the fact that he didn't sign the letter asking for the extension. and now he is saying, "i am still willing to get the bill through, but by the way, i want an election once it has come through". all of this is d

the week ahead in more detail, joing me from glasgow is sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at strathclydebout the screen speech?” first of all, what struck you most about the screen speech? i think what struck me most was that the idea that brexit is coming to be done and dusted if there prime minister emerges from brussels later this week with abo, frankly it's something of a misunderstanding. there are no less than seven of the 25 specific pieces of legislation that their government has put into the queens beach. of course there is the queens beach. of course there is the veil which would have to be passed to reflect the treaty currently being negotiated but then the major legislation about immigration and agriculture and fishing and trade. a very substantial amount is still going to be taken up with brexit even though supposedly we would have got to the major business done at the end of october, there's a lot more to come. i would say that so far as the domestic side is confirmed, there we re domestic side is confirmed, there were one or two important bills, quite substantial and the u

but as sirjohn curtice, the great psephologists from strathclyde university, says, where other seatsp and down behind us, buses, the day—to—day things. austerity has meant bus route cuts and higher fa res meant bus route cuts and higher fares on rail. it is the housing crisis. on those issues, jeremy corbyn had a strong song the last time round. have the tories got more than one message? if it is only brexit, attention wanders. voters' mines go on to, what about my life? that was in evidence in premises questions, withjeremy corbyn pushing on the nhs. is that how labour are going to play this? labour are going to play this? labour are going to play this? labour are going to work on two things. one is, don't trust that man. and then they will go straight to bed in butter, housing, nhs and link that back to trust, going, are you negotiating secret deals with the americans to sell chlorinated chicken to us? this is not going to bea chicken to us? this is not going to be a nice election. there are character issues on both sides. boris and corbyn have character issues. he is not trusted b