stu varney of the fox business network is here now with analysis. stu, what does this mean? >> okay. megyn, jpmorgan is saying that we've got a 40% chance of going into recession. now, follow this through a little bit. it doesn't just mean we're going to have high unemployment living with us for a long time to come, it also means -- dig deeply here -- it also means that our debt and deficit situation will get a whole lot worse. the government is assuming that we're going to grow 3, maybe 4%, and that would, indeed, shrink the deficit a little. jpmorgan saying hardly any growth at all. that would mean that the deficit would get even bigger than it is now. because less money comes into the treasury, more money goes out in social services. now, if deficit gets bigger, that means we're in an even worse position with s&p and the ratings agencies because they downgraded because of our rotten debt situation. it also means that the president's jobs plan and that supercommittee have a lot more work to do to get the deficit down. a shrinking economy or a static economy means a much wo

someone who will be watching it closely, stu varney of fox business network. what does this drop mean? >> reporter: well, the word "recession" is back on the table. that is now on the radar screens. as you said, shannon, we're worried about this bad jobs report. it's likely to be bad first thing tomorrow morning, and all the indicators recently have pointed south for the economy. investors do not like the word "recession," and when it surfaces like it has recently, there is a big selloff. right now we're down 280 points on the dow meaning that we have dropped more than a thousand points just since may of this year. but, shannon, i want to bring something else to your attention. there's something else on the table here, and that is a policy vacuum. what can president obama do about this? what policy options are available as the economy maybe teeters on the brink of recession? answer, he's got very few policy options available. congress is in recess, not much going to come out of congress. so in a policy vacuum investors ask, what are we going to do about this?

. >> i'm glad you mentioned what needs to be done right now because stu varney is sitting next to usxactly what needs to be done. i hope. welcome back from vacation. >> the president has promised action, stuart. >> the president has promised action and he'll come up with a plan after labor day, ok? now that's about a month away. and then he's going to present it to congress. he wants congress to pass it so we're many, many months away from any action taken to get this economy turned around. so you ask the question, what should be done? >> right. >> well, here's what should not be done. >> ok. >> if the president comes up with another plan, a big infrastructure bank. >> $45 billion. >> stimulus plan number two, that's not going to work. >> didn't you get the hint that's where he's going to be going and he's going to put the blame on congress if he doesn't pass it. >> yes, i think that's exactly where he's going. one hope for the president and his re-election in my opinion would be tax reform. real tax reform. where you get more money coming into the federal treasury because you lower

shannon: stu varney joining us from the fox business network. u, i mean, the numbers could have been worse. should we be celebrating? >> reporter: now, that is a very good question. the question that everybody's asking is, are we on the brink of another recession? what is the real health and the state of america's economy? this jobs report was supposed to give us some indication. and when it came out at 8:30 eastern time this morning, there was some relief. yes, the unemployment rate went down to 9.1% and, yes, we created 117,000 new jobs in that month. but then you start the dig a little deeper into the numbers, and it emerges: 193,000 people just dropped out of the work force, no longer counted. weren't even looking for a job. that's why the unemployment rate came down. now dig even deeper, and you find that if you add all of these discouraged workers along with part-time workers that don't want part-time work, add them all together, and you've really got an unemployment rate of 16%. now go a little further. if you wanted to bring the unemploym

look at the unemployment numbers and why they are not expected to get much better anytime soon, stu varney us from the fox business network. you heard ed henry saying they are not good, and there is no way of arguing they are great. but could they be a lot worse? >> yes, they could. the numbers on which this forecast are based are based on july numbers, early july numbers. they made a projection of the future of the economy of, the few tiewrvet unemployment rate on the bay basis of numbers in early july. since then the numbers have gotten much worse. late jump and into august, the indicators pointed due south. that means if you did a projection based on the latest numbers, would i come up with a much worse unemployment rate and a much worse deficit looking down the road. this report really looks down that road and suggests that it's going to be a different look and feel to the american economy. high unemployment, low growth. that's the exact opposite of what america mass enjoyed for the past generation. megyn: when i look at this number, let's say the is 8.5% in 2012, it was hovering aroun

stu varney is with us from the fox business network. >> reporter: how can you add $7 trillion to the national debt -- and that what this deal would do -- how can you ad $7 trillion, call it a cut in the debt and retain your triple aaa rating? how can you do that? let me go a bit further. this deal does not meet the criteria laid down by standard and poor's. they said to avoid a downgrade you must cut $4 trillion. this deal does not do that. secondly the rating agencies have said unless you get a handle on entitlement programs you will be downgraded. this does not get a handle on entitlement programs. they are in fact barely touched. how can you do all of this. add to the debt, fail to cut $4 trillion, fail to do anything about entitlement program and still retain a triple a rating. odds are you are going to lose that rating. alisyn: any idea how the markets will feel about this? >> reporter: the market will go up at at opening bell 20 minutes from now. it's basically a relief rally. how long it lasts is anybodi' guess. the economy is on the verge of recession and friday we'll probabl

stu varney joins us live to break it all down. bus tour through potential swing states. is it a campaign event or not? either way you the taxpayer are footing the bill. we'll debate that. a young man buried alive. he thought it was over but lived to tell the story and he will join us live. we'll keep you updated as the search continues on the campus of virginia tech from reports of a gunman there. we'll see you at the top of the hour. jenna: a lot of good stories ahead. we heard this right. eat right, exercise, don't smoke or drink too much, keys to a long, long life, right? maybe not. a new study finds many people age 95 and older are poster children for bad behavior. a leader researching good genes are really responsible for longevity, not necessarily your diet. but of course a word of caution before we go off the deep end here. a doctor of the university maryland school of medicine is joining us. >> that's fine. >> these folks tested according to these researchers, 95 and olders, smoke, drank and had poor diets, lack of exercis

steve forbes and stu varney react.ghting over a tax hike again, except now the republicans want it, the democrats do not. say what? michael ray began on hell freezing over. and he was caught by one of nbc's "to catch a predator" sings, but he just got acquitted with apologies from the judge. now he's threatening to sue nbc. we'll show you why you might not be calling this guy a victim anytime soon. see you top of the hour. jenna: welcome back, everyone. congressman mike be rogers is back with us, chairman of the house intelligence committee. and, congressman, we were talking about specifically what the united states' strategy should be once the regime falls and libya starts to try to form a government. what should our strategy be to make sure that the weapon stockpiles there in libya are secure? can you be specific about that? >> well, i'll be as specific as i can, jenna, but i would use the nato structure. we're going to have a surge of diplomacy, as we should, to help them transition through this. by the way, that sh

stu varney of the fox business network joins me now to put things in perspective. stu, let's start with the credit downgrade as we await the president. he has yet to speak to this although it happened friday night. to what extent has his silence impacted what we're seeing on the markets today? >> reporter: it has not helped the markets, that's for sure, because many people were expecting some kind of leadership position to be established by the president following that friday night downgrade. over the weekend we heard nothing from the president. he put out his surrogate, the treasury secretary, his senior adviser, to attack standard & poor's for making that downgrade, an attack of the tea party and other republicans for the debt mess and the talks thereon. however, the president until now has said nothing directly, and that has not done the markets very much good. megyn, there are three tumultuous headlines in today's news on money. the first is the downgrade, the second is the reaction on the stock market which, as you point out, has been, indeed, tumultuous. the d

. >>> steve forbes, stu varney and more, next hour, to help us with what this means for you, your family, and this economy. >>> another alert, the news is also breaking in new york city, where we are awaiting a news conference from prosecutors, a judge an hour ago dismissing the criminal sexual assault case against former international monetary fund chief dominic strauss-kahn, prosecutors say they could not prove these charges beyond a reasonable doubt because they say a string of lies told by the accuser in the case, the "new york post" says the 33-year-old hotel maid fell to the floor in a tantrum yesterday after prosecutors told her of their plans to stop pursuing the case. reportedly crying, quote, "i wasn't under oath". julie banderas is live at the new york supreme court in manhattan, that's the trial court level here in new york and julie, that judge has just thrown the case out essentially. >> reporter: yeah, essentially he has, after months of he said, she said, inconclusive dna, and holes as you mentioned in the maid's story of the judge accepting the prosecutor's request to di

once again, stu varney is here with the good news. >> no, it sounds great to see you to break this down. a lot of people had said that looming in the background of this whole debt deal crisis was the fact that the economy still stinks. >> look, we just had two nasty shocks to the economic system. as you point out, gdp, the economy is barely growing. then along comes manufacturing. barely growing. supposed to be robust. not happening. and you've got another shock coming on friday with this jobs report where we're going to see the unemployment rate well above 9% all over again. what i'm saying is a recession is now on the tanl. it's on the horizon. it's on the radar screen. it's looming out there in the future. it could happen. >> sure. >> and the -- look, the problem for me is what policy options do the obama administration have available? are they going to come up with a big, new stimulus plan? out of the question. not going to happen. house wouldn't let it happen. >> and is he going to roll back obama care? roll back financial reform? roll back e.p.a. regulations? he cannot do that. th

stu varney is here with the insight. a robber steals a woman's purse and then brings it right back.py birthday to neil armstrong, first man to walk on the moon turns 81 today. happy birthday. ♪ [ female announcer ] erybody loves that cushiony feeling. uh oh. i gotta go. [ female announcer ] and with charmin ultra soft, you can get that same cushiony feeling you love while still using less. charmin ultra ft has extra cushions that are soft and more absorbent. so you can use four times less versus the leading value brand. ah. [ femalennouncer ] using less never felt so good. we all go... why not enjoy the go with charmin ultra soft. what if we designed an electric motorcycle? what if we turned trash into surfboards? whatever your what if is, the new sprint biz 360 has custom solutions to make it happen, including mobile payment processing, instant hot spots, and 4g devices like the motorola photon. so let's all keep asking the big what ifs. sprint business specialists can help you find the answers. sprint. america's favorite 4g network. trouble hearing on the phone? visit sprintrelay.

varney & company on the fox business network. >> with a little help from our "fox & friends." >> that's right, buddy. starts at 9:20 a.m. thanks, stu you. >> next on the rundown, a shocking report. drugs to treat ptsd, post traumatic stress disorder do better than a placebo, really? >> and the department of education giving kids free books about spongebob. seems like a good idea, right? well, some parents don't think so. they say the books are being used to push an over-the-top green agenda regarding global warming. >> but first, happy birthday to tom brady, the new england patriots quarterback is 34 years old today. happy birthday, tommy. >> tommy? ♪ [ female announcer ] erybody loves that cushiony feeling. uh oh. i gotta go. [ female announcer ] and with charmin ultra soft, you can get that same cushiony feeling you love while still using less. charmin ultra ft has extra cushions that are soft and more absorbent. so you can use four times less versus the leading value brand. ah. [ femalennouncer ] using less never felt so good. we all go... why not enjoy the go with charmin ultra soft. aflac! oh, i've just got major medical... ma

varney office does. >> blame me, steve. go ahead. >> stuart, your show is when and where? >> 9:15 eastern this morning and 8:00 p.m. eastern this evening. >> stuart is in the dock. thanks, stul right, straight ahead, the nascar driver who just lost his license to drive. >> that's kind of a problem. we'll tell you who it is and will he be able to race? >> how does that work out? >> i don't know. >> when the former vice president releases his new book, it may cause a second earthquake in washington, d.c. why dick cheney says it will make heads explode? but first, happy birthday to billy ray cyrus, the country music singer turns a young 56. >> got an achy breaky cake for him here. ♪ [ female announcer ] erybody loves that cushiony feeling. uh oh. i gotta go. [ female announcer ] and with charmin ultra soft, you can get that same cushiony feeling you love while still using less. charmin ultra ft has extra cushions that are soft and more absorbent. so you can use four times less versus the leading value brand. ah. [ femalennouncer ] using less never felt so good. we all go... why not enjoy the go with charmin ultra soft. aflac! oh, i've just got major medical... major medical. .