and that's where we want to start and welcome in chairman stuart miller to "the exchange."nks for joining us. >> good afternoon. >> we want to know about this guidance issue you said you had some preliminary guidance on sales for q1 and part of the year but what is so uncertain in your mind what are the biggest risk factors going into 2019? >> look, first of all, let me say it's nice to see our stock going up again it's been a long ride down for some time for the builders since we started reporting some softness back in q2, q3. but, you know, this is the toughest time of the year to get a read on the market this is the seasonally slow time of the year. we're starting to get a little bit of a read. i noted in our conference call that in december, as interest rates started backing off, we started to see a little more traffic. but november, december, even into january, are the seasonally slowest time of the year and we really don't get a good read until we enter the more robust selling season starting in february, march and april >> but i know you rely heavily on technology in

. >> stuart miller coming up on "the exchange. it's a cnbc exclusive interview there. mr.ler at 1:30 >>> the crude rally is raging on today. oil on pace for eight straight days of gains. seema moody with more on that. >> crude up 12% just in the past week let's get to brian stutland. what's the major catalyst driving oil higher today >> we're getting news out of saudi arabia that they've probably made some cuts here their exports have been down about 6% or 7% think about it if they cut production by 6% or 7% and we get oil like you mention up 12%, that's a win for them so i think those cuts probably stabilize, stay in place this is a good range for oil to be for them. but the bottom line here is, u.s. shale producers, russia are still putting the pedal to the max here whether we can get through $54 a barrel, that will be remain to be seen. i see us being in a consolidated range, 50 or 54. but i think we're in a pause, wait and see mode here now that we've had this tremendous bounce off the lows >> anthony, what levels are you looking at >> i've got $53.19 is the 50-day mov

. >> but you need to see what stuart miller who was the chairman of lennar say continue which is thathe last couple days have been good. housing is getting more affordable because mortgage rates fell and because new home prices are coming down you need to see that it's really hard to understand an environment what fooled jeff, the employment numbers. what fooled the fed? the employment numbers it's an amazon economy when it comes to amazon we'll worry about a divorce. can we stay focused, please? >> yeah. i think the other message from macy's is that there's not a ton of inflation they can't pass on higher prices to the consumer. >> right >> athleisure is not dead not if you look at the nike numbers this is stonington, maine, a town where almost half the population is self-employed. lobster fisherman is the lifeblood of this town. by 2030, half of america may take after stonington, self-employed and without employer benefits. we haven't had any sort of benefit plans and we're trying to figure that out now. if i had had a little advice back then, i'd be in a different boat today, for s

next morning, there was a participant that he was going to be the president of elect, steven miller. stuartforgive me if i jump in moment in the presidential campaign in election night when winner knows he has become the next president and was there a moment with trump? >> yes. when they called pennsylvania -- we were sitting town stairses in a large group of people, and they called pennsylvania and vice president elect pence grabbed his arm, and the president elect turns to look at me says we should go upstairs we wept up to apartment with a smaller group of people, we got up to the apartment steven miller, who was president speech writer he said i need your help he said i have a craft ared confession speech but i have only bullet points not a victory speech we need to write a victory speech. so myself, steven miller, ivanka trump, jared kushner and vice president pence sat around trump dining room table put tailgate a draft for that speech or for the president. >> you were there standing right there pretty amazing night. >> people are right on. amazing night two quick stories now i want y