joined now and throughout the evening by newshour political editor christina bellantoni and stuart rothenberg of the "rothenberg political report" and "roll call." hello for the first time. stu, start with this question of exit polls. we're going to be looking at them all night. what are they though. >> exit poll is actually a series of polls, 25,000 of them to be exact, this year of people who have voted. the poll is conducted in two ways. one thousands of in-person surveys done as people are leaving the polls. they're handed a little card with many questions on them. they simply respond. then the cards are gathered up and the results tabulated but in addition to that, jeff, now there are thousands of telephone interviews on top of that. because, remember, somewhere around 30% or a third of all voters will have voted early. so you can't rely on people walking out of the polling place. you've got people who aren't even showing up at the polling place. edison research, which is the company that actual he'll conducts the exit polls for the consortium of media companies that buys into the polls

and stuart rothenberg of the rothenberg political report and roll call, my side-kick and our go-to analystt night during our election special. a very long special. welcome back, stuart. >> thanks. >> brown: hello to linda. stu, let mestart with you. on the one hand you end up with the status quo in congress, right. on the other hand, given where things started the democrats did quite well, especially in those tight senate races. so a at a later, what can we say? >> absolutely. you're right. things stayed the same bought they didn't. the taste in ourselves mouths at the end of this election was better for the democrats than republicans. in the senate, the democrats added two senate seats, really a remarkable outcome upon. if a year ago you asked me what would happen i would have told you republicans would pick up between three and six senate seats, and instead, insadhe democrats gained two. it was a dramatic event where the democrat won republican seats in maine, massachusetts, and indiana. but even more importantly, held seats in north dakota, ohio, montana, virginia, wisconsin. so it's a

they're here again: stuart rothenberg of the rothenberg political report and roll call, susan page, washingtonureau chief of "u.s.a today." and andrew kohut, president of the pew research center. andy, i'm going to start with you because you have exciting new poll numbers orish say poll numbers which finally end this poll madness. where have we ended up? >> at the end of theadnes we have 50%aying they're going to vote for obama, 47% for romney. that's a statistically significant lead given that the sample is 2800 likely voters. about a week ago it was tied 47 to 47. an important message from the polls i've been watching including ours is the mow ten item seems to be going to obama over the course of the past week. >> ifill: does this last-minute trending in the direction of one candidate or another does it traditionally mean something or can it flip back the other way between the time you get out of the field and the time votes are cast >> when people's attitudes are in transition, one of a number of things are possible. it could be like 1980 where we're underestimating the obama vote. i don't

i'm with, here with political editor christina bell and tony and stuart rothenberg, editor of the rothenberg political report. so if we start to look at the senate, they were talking about early for mitt romney on the presidential side. stu, that is not the case in this important senate race. >> we thought it might be when we first looked back months ago. >> brown: you mean months ago. richard murdoch ended up defeating richard lugar long-time senatorick lugar in a rathi bitter nasty republican, an ideological racea where murdoch attacked lugar for not only being too liberal on questions of guns and national security but also not hingn ang residence in the state, not living in the state. murdoch seem to be the clear favorite to win the seat to hold on the seat for the republicans but stumble after stumble he looked sometimes unwilling to compromise, angry, bitter. and i think itorked on voters. then more recently we had a o controversy on rape a abortion and whether it was a misstatement or misinterpreted, whatever you want to say. it has hurt him in the polls. joe donley is a credible candi

i'm with, here with political editor christina bell and tony and stuart rothenberg, editor of the rothenberg political report. so if we start to look at the senate, they were talking about indiana called early for mitt romney on the presidential side. stu, that is not the case in this important senate race. >> we thought it might be when we first looked back months ago. >> brown: you mean months ago. richard murdoch ended up defeating richard lugar long-time senator dick lugar in a rather bitter nasty republican, an ideological race where murdoch attacked lugar for not only being too liberal on questions of guns and national security but also not having a e, not living in the state. murdoch seem to be the clear favorite to win the seat to hold on the seat for the republicans but stumble after stumble he looked sometimes unwilling to compromise, angry, bitter. and i think it worked on voters. then more recently we had a controversy on rape and abortion and whether it was a misstatement or misinterpreted, whatever you want to say. it has hurt him in the polls. joe donley is a credible candidat

. >> brown: thank you, and with me is christina bellantoni and stuart rothenberg, editor of the rothen berg report to help sort through the senate races. let's start with florida, christina. >> none of the races that gwen and judy just mentioned called by the associated press were a big surprise but florida was an opportunity for the republicans. they thought this could end up being close. for a long time, senator nelson has been able to maintain his advantage there, even as the president and mitt romney are basically tied, in part pause he's as you been able to win the conservative democrats in the panhandle area of florida. but also this is just a state that has been so focused on for the presidential race, it hasn't gotten as much attention. >> brown: does it tell us much about the presidential race? >> i don't think so. if you talk to republicanned inners about connie mack's campaign, you get a load of criticism. he didn't raise money. he entered the race late. he didn't put together the kind of campaign that should have allowed him to win. bell nelson-- he is elected now to his th