. >> reporter: economists put some of the blame for fourth quarter weakness on superstorm standy, which slammed into the northeast in late october. it's also possible that part of the weakness in the fourth quarter was payback for the third quarter's strong 3% growth rate. one of the most worrisome aspects of today's report is a sharp 22% drop in defense spending. >> we are in a declining defense spending environment. but we think the q4 decline of 22% overstates trend significantly. just to play an experiment: if we kept going at the pace, the defense budget would be at zero within five years. we think that's pretty unlikely. >> reporter: the concern for the economy now is even deeper government spending cuts, especially if the sequester takes effect. but for now, economists are confident growth will steadily improve through the year. >> we're looking for maybe 1.5% growth-- real growth-- in the first quarter. and then each quarter getting a little bit faster. so 2% in the second quarter, 2.5% in the third quarter, and by year-end 3% g.d.p. growth. >> reporter: and 3% g.d.p. growth, if