it is no coincidence that svb imploded days later. it had not one, but two problems and neither one were readily apparent until they smacked us in the face. first, the deposit base was way too concentrated in the portfolio companies. second, they took this money and made some very aggressive investments in longer term government bonds so they got extra interest, investments under water because the fed rate hikes crushed places. wait until maturity, get your principal back. big deal. but when the depositors seemed to demand their money overnight, this company was forced to sell its bond portfolio at huge losses. in the banking business you need both a steady source of capital. silicon valley bank had neither. a real bad mismatch somehow blessed by the regulars. svb needed capital badly, but they couldn't raise it as they were coming fast and furious. even being tweeted on like, hey, it is time to get out. the regulators see the bank closed. better late than never, i guess. so that's what happened here. when we talked about svb in early

matt: what about the hold and maturity portfolio, the thing that sunk svb? does that look at charles schwab? sally: they have always said it was never so extreme at charles schwab because they had ample liquidity, zero chance that they were needing to sell bonds at a loss to account for deposit withdrawals. they also never had this problem than manager depositors that svb had where they had more than 90% of depositors who were uninsured the bank was always able to tap federal hormone funding percent that was temporary -- home loan funding but said that that was temporary and limited. any deposit inking trends with debate. these results seem to show that. jon: in canada, td bank has i ownership stake in swab. -- has that ownership stake in swab. another we have a look at wall street performance after the last three months, we will have a busy few days. what will be some of the takeaways by the end of the week are in what is happening in finance this quarter? sally: we had jp morgan, citi, wells fargo on friday. goldman sachs tomorrow. takeaways pretty similar

there was one when it comes to svb. they can't have more bank issues, more substantial credit event that causes more consternation to them, for them. >> svb was blown out of proportion. we will not have a credit event. we may have it isolated because commercial real estate is on the balance sheet of regional banks. >> svb was a small snowball that became a joined snowball. >> that's where we disagree. >> what happens to first republic? where is that? >> it was in the same trade. who else was involved? >> if the fed didn't step in do you think everything would have been fine? >> i don't think it would have been a major credit report. if it was bank of america, that would have been a major credit event. it was isolated to early startups. you have to look at what the banks did for a living and the risk they took on. >> steve, the flight of deposits from many banks was a real issue. >> for the critical banks, the ones the fed said are critical banks, what happened to them? they benefited. the number of deposits, the sheer s

svb had to recognize the losses. having said that, if we have another sharp rise, that is where the stress comes from. we think high are fer for longe. the bad news is no news today and unknown news we need to worry about going forward. >> another majority of the holdings in the big banks. i want your take on the big banks. when it comes to the regional banks, what do you think of the valuation in that area of the financials? you mentioned the big banks are cheap right now. do you have the same thought with the regionals? >> the regional banks are also cheap. we think the credit concerns and lending concerns in particular the small and mid sized businesses and commercial real estate issues will be a bigger factor for many of the regional banks. in addition, they are seeing more pressure on the deposit side than the big banks which is a flight to safety for consumers who moved deposits there. we are less enthusiastic on the regional bank side. it will be some opportunities as we go through earnings season. it is not a

svb is a very good example of that. you look within the banking system, where do you identify the areas of vulnerabilities? it could be a small number of u.s. banks that fall below the threshold for supervision. it could be the intermediaries. >> the last two years have been interesting. the svb crisis and global crisis we saw means we have learned to be careful not with the loan portfolio which was a problem in the 2008 financial crisis and beyond, but much more on the fixed income portfolio. because of volatility and interest rate increases, there will would be a weak spot for financial institutions. the second lesson that i think is important that i have learned is credit suisse from last year. the fact our mechanisms are not resolutions for the stress. it is not proven effective. at the end of the day, in the presence of the relationship in europe and switzerland, the government has to come to the rescue for credit suisse. we will see this as a lender of last resort after all of this regulation moves forward. >> art

you can talk about svb, i would make an argument that's isolated. doesn't mean there aren't tensions, but the market itself, the s&p, is measured by the 200-day, holding, not trading through. this is a year and a half. and that gets back to the beginning of this cycle where we didn't know how aggressive the fed was going to be. >> if terms of the bond volatility that we've seen, because it has been extraordinary. tlt saw a record day on volume. >> yes. >> in terms of shares traded, which is extraordinary to think about. look at our chart of the day. think about the positioning here in the bond market in terms of the wall of issuance we are expecting. who is going to be that buyer? definitely not the fed. and it's not china, and this is -- this is a chart that has been going -- had been making the rounds today. basically said $300 billion in bonds have been sold since 2021, $4 billion just since april of this year by china, and they don't have additional dollars to recycle back into the bond market. and maybe politically if they did, maybe they would

economy. >> 200 days since svb and no recession so far has resulted from that.nks and lending. how do you think the tighter financial conditions have worked their way through the system, and do you expect any additional lag effects to come out from here? >> on the banks i think weathered the storm well so far. i think svb was a quirky bank and some of the other ones were quirky compared to most banks which are conservatively managed. i think also the largest bangs have not had trouble and even benefitted from some of the turmoil. we're going to get -- they're under some pressure. their fixed income portfolios have dropped in value and everyone understand that, but they're managing through that. i think it's steady as she goes on the banking side. on the long long and variable l sure, melton friedman talked about that years ago. but i think much more of the transition these days comes through here, through financial markets. and is faster than it would have been in those earlier eras. so, i think the story isn't quite the same today as it would have been in the '

matt: is the concern we see something break again like we did with svb and the other regional banks in march? mike: there is a concern, but it is something they are supposed to be concerned about. she said the banks are in better shape and they have looked at a lot of banks. ve made foion likeations they this where their assets decline in value she did not thin igoing to be a major problem and again she went back to svb saying it ws unique situation. matt: i'm looking at the whisper number on the terminal. for the nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow. how important is this? what you think, the survey is 170 and whisper is 188? mike: it is interesting because the numbers we got this week, adp numbers suggesting there might be weakness in the overall nonfarm payroll numbers. the market does not think so. the market is learning into a stronger economy.. daly was asked that and said she does not see any alarm bells ringing about the economy and that there has been a slow down but there's no cliff u.s. economy is going off in terms of hiring. she is not worry about it and things are proceeding

they were retaining the deposits from svb.ink as we move into q4 or in january, we should get a capital return as well. the kicker toward the end is the influclusion in the s&p. it still trades cheaply. >> it seems to be the case. john, we will leave it there. thank you for joining me today on the show as we look ahead toward other u.s. banks earnings. john haggerty, partner from redburn atlantic. we have our u.s. colleagues speaking to brian moynihan at 16:00 cet. >>> let's navigate to the session where the optimism has faded. all indices trading in the red. ftse 100 and cac 40 is d down .20%. rolls-royce is a name we are looking out for today at the top of the ftse 100. more generally, we are seeing a lot of weakness today in telecoms. ericsson is a name we are watching. pharmaceuticals as well after the deep reaction in the marketplace. sw >>> switching to fx with currencies. the pound is 121.50. we have started to see that private wages are beginning to moderate although real wages have moved positively. the trajectory is

after svb, look like there's going to be a big competition for deposits. they're going to go to big wall street banks. are they having to increase interest rates? david: they are. my point is it is still a big headwind. they did come in lower than what we were expecting. they are ramping of. they were up probably 30 basis points from last quarter. i think that it's going to wait in them -- weigh on them until the back half of next year. that is going to weigh on the group but it is getting slightly less onerous each quarter we move through. jon: i was speaking to another analyst earlier today. when it comes to some of the lingering uncertainties, earlier this year we saw with this interest rate environment date to silicon valley bank, i think people are so concerned about what is happening with commercial real estate, the idea if these banks could have been setting aside to borrow money for potentially bad loans, may be that would show prudence and if there is that out there, that could come back to bite some of the banks. how do you feel about some of the

the biggest borrowers were svb and first republic.l reported positive earnings. so what you have is some banks made bad bets and they should suffer the consequences, or as paul said, bail out the people that made mistakes and reward the people that did well. when you make a mistake, i don't think you should ask uncle sam to bail you out. >> the banks took the bait, if i can quote the former kansas city fed president. they are innocencentivized to b these. but paul, let me turn to you. some say that the banks had a bailout, because the fed is accepting a lot of this stuff at par. in the past, it would be forcing a discount. so respect they already being given a bit of a bailout here? >> well, kelly, if you look at what the banks are paying on this debt that they're taking out to meet their liquidity needs, you know, deposits flowing out of the bank for a variety of reasons, their need to continue to fund loans. against what they're earning on those assets, there's probably a 300 basis point difference between there. so they're essentia

in those terms at levels we have not seen since march when svb and other regional banks collapsed. 10d rising a headwind for equities know of 13 basis points to 4.95 seven, getting closer to the 5% level we went through monday. the bloomberg u.s. dollar index also a headwind rising now. 1276 is the level there. of another headwind from oil. crude rises dollar $.10 per barrel to 8484. those things are bad for stocks. as a result stocks continue to fall. jon: one of the other headwind has been the technology selloff. you have a tale of two tech earnings. the market continues to digest. all such a long we have seen weakness for google's parent company alphabet as the cloud component of the business seemed to be the worrisome part of the results last night. those shares are off 9%. at the other end of the nasdaq 100 performance, on a day seeing a lot of decliners, microsoft holding gains of about 2.5% now. investors felt pretty pleased with what the company had to report. we will talk more later about the story of technology stocks. there is more to come today earnings wise. in canada we

it's significantly underperformed the s&p and in fact it's at an svb low right now, if you look at where it's kind of moved back to. we talk about this all the time. however, the leadership that this market has gotten from the big megacaps is something that will continue to be that which determines. and apple traded great today. >> i thought the market traded horribly today. the s&p closed flat on the day, if you think about where the futures were last night based on the reaction to the news about the averted shutdown, but they gave it all back very quickly. yeah, they came back at the end of the day. they came back because of the flight to quality. it's into the magnificent seven. and this is what we've seen since the regional banking crisis in march or so. so, that trade continues to stay very concentrated. we are seeing some deceleration in the fundamentals of those companies. that's what was evident to me in the q-2 reports and q-3 guidance. why many of those stocks sold off at least 10% from their highs preearningsish or so. broke outtrends that have been in place since late last ye

would fire bad bank supervisors for the supervisory neglect that contributed to the epic failures of svb, and signature. he would not commit to doing anything. i would ask you in your role, as the active executive officer if you would take some action firing those responsible for missing what was clearly obvious, known to all of america certainly should have been obvious to the supervisors. i've said from the beginning that this has been a failure in three parts, svb signature, it was a failure of the bank executives in the action that we took 21 to 2 yesterday reinforces congress is willing to take the lead and hold bank executives accountable. second failure was the supervisory failure, and that requires the fed to hold folks accountable, just like congress did, and third, the biden inflationary economy that has drove prices really high and resulted in ten rate increases from you all. in the wake of silicon valley's bank's downfall, as the vice chair released his report on the failures, we heard directly from you that your role was to announce it, to get briefed on it, but not necessar

i speak highly of the company and dems about svb very importantly.mers, people have done a great job with this and they are being rewarded. ipos are going by i'm -- by all measures really well. jon: getting back to something you were referencing with netflix. a massive pool of advertisers you could be teaming up with. they are talking about title sponsors for individual shows. we have seen versions of this for years but they have a large library. this is open the door to have a bigger brand but also ace waller brand that is the title sponsor of a show? mark: that has been one of the challenges. do they have rights to show as on all their shows? the answer is no. so renegotiating those rights on all the shows to make sure they do have rights. for them to expand the number of advertisers, they have to focus on that. it takes more technology. they have to basically give rights on all their shows to show whatever ads make sense. it is really key. if you look at fang stocks -- i forget what they are called right now. matt: the divine 7 -- the magnificent

you spoke of svb. the conversation in the u.s. is about 5% and more.ppens to banks and the bond portfolios sitting on their books? i am curious at how you are looking at the macro and micro risks, not having enough information about borrowers, -- i know the credit score system has improved considerably. but that still is large areas of gray. how do you deal with this? >> you would be surprised when we are looking at these companies, they have about 20-25 years of track record. there is enough information in the public domain through the banking records, through with a file with the ministry of corporate affairs, for a credit manager to go in. it is not that much of a black box. when you look at a lot of large corporate, you often have less transparency than when you look at a single business, you have information going back as many years as you want. it is not that much of a black box. >> you are indicating one way upward thoughts right now of growth, growth and more growth for private credit. >> yes but like every asset class, you have risks of excess

we were having a pretty optimistic conversation around crypto adoption even in spite of svb, sbf.stry feeling now in the world of fintech and putting money into these startups? >> fintech has been, as the entire second -- tech sector has been, fairly slow through the year. i will say the story of q2 was inflection point. round sizes is going up for the first time. also valuations have slowly ticked up. it might be that q1 could have been the bottom both her fintech but also for early-stage startup investing in general. i'm definitely seeing signs of optimism in both fintech and the broader tech ecosystem and environment. caroline: what do you think was the catalyst for that bottoming? is it that these companies have taken bitter pills and rectified how their revenue and burn rate's are or are we getting more broad ideas of optimism like exits in the ipo market? >> i think it's a combination of both. everybody is looking at the ipo market very carefully. the story of arm and clavio, the ai story is pretty clear. if you have an ai story, you will trade up in the public markets and a

that was one of the factors of the march regional banking crisis that consumed svb and first republican. higher borrowing costs impact the demand for loans. people are not taking out mortgages or corporate loans. they tend to increase the losses on loans. that is something we are looking out for here. there is a sdynamic that kbw thinks will reduce 18% in the third quarter for the banking industry. when you think about it, it will pressure not the jpmorgan chass of the world which is adept at the volatility management, but others like comerica and key bank will have the biggest hits to the bond holdings. >> hugh, a lot of short selling and the regionals. are we expected to see that continue in the higher for longer environment? >> reporter: i would say so, frank. as long as interest rates are elevated and that caught banks flat footed here means you will see that from short funds. there is higher short positions than the third quarter. conversely, i talked to a couple of analysts who said the set up for bank stocks is beaten down this year and in recent weeks. it is looking for a short

svb said there's 6,800 that need to raise money or exit by the end of 2024 if they don't cut their burnenormous backlog that can only be handled by existing dollars. so there will be a number of companies that will face a reckoning in the next 12 months. >> fresh new opportunities, is the ai theme dominating everything and, therefore, are the ai victims going to be a new theme as well? >> we see ai as individual ai companies and a lot ai-enabled companies. classic companies are getting powered by ai or incorporating ai in the model and consumer companies are doing the same thing, the travel assistance or waze telling you how to get home the quickest. if you're not saying how is ai going to affect my business over the next three years, you'll be left behind. >> rick, great to catch up with you. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina is standing by with that. >>> electric vehicles disappoint. stock action next. ♪ (captivating music) ♪ (♪♪) the first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. (♪♪) but it can be passed on

back on the show >> thank you happy to be here >> you joined us not too long after the collapse of svbe are with regional banks and why you felt the confidence to acquire a community bank >> i believe the banking industry is healthy overall despite the interest rates being up over the last year. our industry continues to be successful and continues to help consumers and communities out and small businesses out i think you are seeing a nice rebound with deposit growth this quarter. we were up 3% which was better than the market. we were pleased we continue to grow deposits in this challenging environment. >> give us a sense you actually saw growth when it came to net interest income. that is a metric for every bank for the audience's edification give us a sense of what gave you the ability to grow that >> i think it is the ability to grow deposits and use the deposits to grow commercial and mortgage loans if we continue to do that, we out performed our old expectations with the balabilito do that. how much does it cost us to acquire a new deposit? we were able to dissuccessfully that. >

it has been six months since the collapse of svb pp. we had an interesting call on banks.re are we now? >> we like to think we bottomed in may. we are about 12% after first republic failed. it is hard to believe given how much more confidence and certainty we have in the environment today. if you have a longer term view, the environment group looks cheap. the problem is we are just now seeing some of the credit losses materialize. investors are very wary to step into the group. we will probably still be a bit choppy for the near term. >> i'll get to the names in a second. you are the second guest saying the bank regionals are cheap right now. is this time to rethink the banks? >> yes. at these levels, the european banks don't look like that. from an earnings perspective, we are trading to a different discount from the s&p. we need to know we're not going to have massive credit losses in any huge hiccups to the income side. i think once we get to that level, whether that is one or two quarters down the line, that will be highly attractive to investors. >> you mentioned the

that is back with the collapse of svb. you see the sharp tick to the upside here.cks rough session yesterday and what is shaping up to be a repeat this morning following fresh comments from fed chairman jay powell. likely his last words before the central bank's next policy decision near the end of the month. powell highlighting progress on fighting inflation, but promising the fmoc will be quote resolute in sticking to the 2% target when it comes to inflation. repeating the mantra of higher for longer. >> evidence of your eyes is the economy is handling higher rates at least for now without difficulty. so notion ally, that will tell you the neutral rate has risen or we have not had rates high enough for long enough. we have formulas for everything. as a practice toner, we have to how policy is looking and if it is too tight right now. >> joining me now is roger ferguson and former federal reserve vice chairman and cnbc contributor. roger, great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. nice to be with you. >> give us a sense. what was your take on the comments fro

it's back there about 1% from the lows from after svb. there are all kinds of name brand blue chip stocks that have already blown up this year. we talked about target last week as an example of that. disney is another example. we've got a lot of really big, important stock on their lows and don't look like there's complacency everywhere. maybe where there's the most is in the f.a.a.n.g. names, even today, and that's probably true. i would agree with him on that. there's a lot of damage and destruction over all this market, but it's being masked by mega cap names that have held up well. >> joe, this week we'll mark what some suggest is the bottom and others say we might go back, that this is still just a prolonged bear market bounce for stocks, not the start of a new bull market. we still have major issues. earnings are not going to come anywhere close to what the most optimistic projections suggest they could. higher for longer. all still hanging out there. how do you factor that in. >> i think the biggest risk is for earnings disappoint

evaluations are quite low as a result of svb, greater regulatory intrusion, technology cost, adjustingates, commercial real estate, you go through it, i think the regional banks, the specialist banks are going to be a better investment over time how much they miss the incredible service that came from spv and first republic small businesses in particular. i think one of the great strengths of our financial industry in the country is the diversity and having community banks and specialist banks and regional banks not just the top four or five institutions, the very large megabanks. it is a real positive, were looking at the sector very closely it needs private capital to be invested and were keeping a close eye i agree with cityview. elizabeth: you helms barclays bank during the financial crisis all what not having enough capital on a balance sheet havoc that it can wreak, you say is not so much that the bank should be sitting there piling up their own in the private investment is going to be very helpful in these cases. >> i think we will see consolidation if you looking for, for a hal

we are now more washed out, though, last week and this week, than we were during the svb crisis when the rsi and the spx got to about as low as 33. are we in worse condition economically now than when we thought there was going to be a mass bank failure? it seems so overdone. so the fuel is there for a bounce if we get what i hope we get. >> the problem, kari, you have people like btig's jonathan krinsky saying it will not be the low. people expect it to hold and you get a nice rally into the rest of the fourth quarter, but he says it may not be the chris. another says yesterday's rally hardly gives you the all clear. you didn't even get 2 to 1 advancers to decliners, the internals are week. barclays, we believe we have substantial room to reprise lower before bonds stabilize. that's where the narrative is. everybody is getting negative, so maybe that's a positive. >> i think what you're hearing are the people are raising their voices and the people who have been bullish are very quiet right now because the last couple of weeks are not playing into anything that's optimistic. i think

gone like really, really way down and the other thing that is happening is pause like there is a post-svbg on. remember that bank failed. people are pulling their money out of banks too. sew the banks are not lending money. people are not leaving money in the banks because interest rates and bonds are high enough they might as well buy a treasury as opposed to leave it in deposit. there is a lot of financial distress out there. larry: yeah, what you got in sum you got a lot of unhappy campers. that is what you got. that is what the polls are showing. polls don't vote but it is a snapshot for a lot of unhappy people for all the reasons you mentioned. we'll leave it there. the great kevin hassett. appreciate it very much. >> good to talk to you. larry: coming up, vivek ramaswamy has got a way, he is pro-growth, he is pro-capitalism, novembers how to communicate it so well. that is why he has done so well in the debates. we'll hear from vivek in just a moment. we have mollie hemingway and gregg jarrett. we'll talk legal stuff about these scandals. mark levin is right, don't let up on the imp

banks are doing banking to the stablecoins unzipping lit out and we saw what happened with circle and svbin that context. so the risk migrated from the context of the private banking system into the stablecoins system. so one big question is how well stablecoins assets be held? sure that the access to the master the mr. katko is the question we decided we discussing today. what can of licensing regime would enable that potential happen so we can guarantee these assets are exactly where they are supposed to be and are exactly in the quantity they're supposed to be at and there's verifiable and that he available to ensure that's the case. the other thing we also need to think about at least in our context is federalists, the federalism were dealing with the state versus federal. what is a balance of regulatory oath refill existed in terms of licensing the stablecoins, federal supervision. what is about us that we are going to aim for and what we're seeing today is a lot of activity in the state realm with respect to stablecoins regulation. new york, wyoming and others have done a lot to try

svb i understand --neal: i understand you understand this. i was at rhett and link's studio yesterday and is -- it is amazing what they built. it is this hotbed of creativity, both of them are incredibly creative people but they are enormously successful business entrepreneurs as well and that is what they do. they do the new variety show, the new talkshow and if you are a young person in particular, how to think about any differently, better or worse? that is what you know to consume. i would take any creator's content. one creator's boxing documentary, put up any piece -- put it up against any piece of content, why should it not win emmys? that is where the industry needs to go. lucas: we have one audience question that i have to get to the key topic which is his youtube doubling down on e-sports and competing with trip -- which --twitch. >> you can continue watching that conversation on live go on your bloomberg terminal. this is a countdown to the close and i am scarlet let's get a check on with markets. we take a look at the equity marke

before svb, credit dynamics, commercial mortgage exposure, some of the dynamics in terms of their cost nothing here that says, i think you need to buy these banks, and again, if i'm doing a would you rather in the banking sector, i'm staying in money center banks, the balance sheet are fine, there's quality to them, not away from them, even though, less, it appears schwab has stemmed the tide of outflow for now. >> let's stick with the banks for a moment, as bank of america and goldman sachs report before the bell tomorrow, morgan stanley, host of the regionals are out on wednesday. this is going to be a huge week for the financials, what is your trade on goldman? >> you know, i would still probably be a better buyer if i have to pick between buying and selling. i don't want to short in front of this name, but you know, the deal flow, that really concerns me. time and time again, goldman have improved themselves experts at creating trading revenue, i'd be a better buyer. >> anybody have a quick thoughts there? >> goldman doesn't get rewarded for fixed income commodities, typically does

banking crisis particularly after svb. banks were in trouble but they went back down.ort of same thing. fomc higher for longer. we start rallying higher. september fomc, we start rallying higher. you get the point. every time the fed opens their mouth the market moves. even about they don't take action the yields go much, much higher. the question can anything be done to stop this, right? because you've got other things, you've got other drivers that are happening besides what is happening at the fed. one is competition. remember we talked about a few months ago, japan ditching being that 10-year yield curve. this is what happened. they were at this level, artificial level for their 10 year-year-old for a long time. look where they are now, 0.9 from 0.2. that is giving our yields a lot of competition. why is this important? they are number one foreign holder of our treasurys, $1.3 trillion. this is because china has sold off hundreds of billions. so here's the question, with that in mind, where should the real, you know, the real yield be? where should we expect long-t

after a failure of svb. what do you take away from that conversation, bramo? .l risk premium you have to start thinking about. for people like columbia threadneedle, we talked about gene tannuzzo who for years set it is fine problem, but now it resonates with people in fixed income. lisa a: which raises the issue of windows washington start to look at the treasury market? there was a survey where they increase just from it in july, the increased expectation for the deficit in the u.s. is $100 billion simply by the move in yields by 2025. jonathan: how close are we to politicians waking up in d.c. with a tar and 10-year yield after the moves we have? lisa a: they should be. tom: they will. jonathan: congressman french hill is. lisa a: maybe others will join. jonathan: coming up shortly, a really sensible and sober voice for the natural stress earlier this weekend here. chris merrimack. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with j

six months ago, seven months ago was svb and big-time bank concerns. that is not the case anymore. gap between all that is going on , which you led to in the prelude between the three view chatting, and the actual reality underneath. so you can be very scared and very worried if you just read the headlines, but if you look beneath the surface, things are actually, i would argue, getting better. tom: the single paragraph in your note, that you are simply out of the bond market, is confirmed by the bloomberg total return index. it is on the precipice of making new laws on a price basis. we are back to a 2016 bond market. what happens to the stock market if we get christ -- pirce down higher yields on that aggregate index? jay: that is really the big pension right now between assets. 60-40 worked like a charm over the 2010-2020 period. massive bond market for a decade, now we are having the reserve. we heard about the coming bond market several years ago. we have been out of treasuries for the last two years in our mobile multi-asset portfolio, even though our benchmark is 40% fixed i

lisa: the oversight to the svb situation. we are at a moment where it goes beyond the banks.t what point is rate, at these levels, unsustainable for an economy built under a low rate regime. i think that is what everyone is grappling with including fed officials. tom: annmarie hordern and joe mathieu with their important conversation last night of the congressman from florida matt gaetz. you are at the capital. kent matt gaetz get a drink at the capital grille? what is the reaction of washington to what he has wrought? annmarie: if you want to know, where matt gaetz hangs out is the old trump hotel. it is no longer owned by the chung family business -- trump family business but this individual is not a like amounts's conference at the moment and your hearing voices say they would like to expel congressman matt gaetz come of the driving force behind the motion to vacate. there is a lot of buyer and fury within the -- fire and fure within the republican party and your hearing this will not be wrapped up. they think this will be a long drawn out process. the battle lines are dra

is there another svb in the offing? i never want to close the door on things like that. you always have got to be looking over your shoulder for some episode of risk you were not contemplating. even if you don't get an accident, the supply of credit is going to go down because these folks are in situations. let's use cre as the front and center one. that is ready supply of credit is damaged most quickly in 224. jonathan: sit in the front end and wait? dean: two year note, five percent, it is going to grow strong if the cycle gets upended. jonathan: this is awesome. thank you so much. cash is a beautiful thing. tom: cash is a beautiful thing. what is interesting about this is the motion or lack thereof out there. i have in the bloomberg total return index a 2% down in price gets us to new lows for bonds. what is that going to look like on people's statements where people are what about fact 18.5 month cd? lisa: yields will go down, there will be this financial accident. i know this feels like one step too far in game theory, but if people believe it is not sustainable, yi