taliban staged a deadly attack that killed at least 24 people. 90 were wounded. the taliban and had been gaining ground and increasing ground in territory across afghanistan. results from the election in -- china isow warning that any's there's any support for independence is against the law. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. in taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. tom: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. let's get right after -- right to it. a churn after the jobs report. 1.61% on the 10 year yield, oil gyrating but that is a reset going halfway through august, 44.82. better 12.46 showing than expected on equity markets. 0.80%, andr yield there is brent crude, 47.09. a picture ofs is the european stocks fluctuating a bit and i think we have some news in terms of asian stocks. ,hey were at a one-year high the dollar weakening a touch as prospects for u.s. interest hikes seem to be subdued. i am looking at brent, $47 and the pound, 1.33. bloomberg,go to the a major shout out to deutsche bank who said, this is what matters. moving the three-month average of hours worked, up it goes and it evaporates back to where was in about 2011. this is a very subtle tea leaf kind of index and nonetheless it is disappointing to see hours worked roll over in america. francine: sorry to say that that payroll report failed to sway traders either way. i have something from japan, a simple chart. the white is the japanese ours 30 year -- japanese 30 year yield and the yellow is the 10 year bond. they are inching up a touch. a lot of traders are trying to plot the return of the yield curve that has been driving the bond rout. we will have more on japan and the labor force in the u.s.. all of that coupled with brexit and send gdp figures out of the ,u pretty much as expected germany factory orders undershot forecast as the momentum seems to be cooling. watt.g us is ewen cameron he is with us for the first half hour. given what we have learned in the past couple of months, u.s. data on friday did not really give an indication of the market. the expectation of monetary policy still matters. we have dealt with a number of crises against the backdrop of expectations of the ecb extending, the bank of japan extending, the boe coming to the party, and the volatility has been exceptionally low but i think that comes back to monetary policy. francine: are we expecting volatility to be low a bit? the 21st of september is probably the trickiest day because we have the boj in the morning and the fed is 12 hours later. moment. have a big we have the u.s. presidential debates starting at the end of the month. you get through september with no voc tech and volatility, thus with no uptick in volatility, that will be quite an interesting outcome -- with no uptick in volatility, that will be quite an interesting outcome. the the booming economy of u.k., i want to give you congratulations for not -- ewen: the economy looked dicey in july and better in august and part of that is due to the preemptive action that governor carney took. i think it is too soon to tell but the predictions of an immediate crash in the wake of brexit proved wrong. it is a long drawn out process that i think we will see overtime. services are good, housing is looking a little bit supported. sterling is beginning to strengthen. i think ahead it is not necessarily smooth seas. indicate oncet again that currency trumps all with an open global economy? currency adjustment is front and center? you bet, and currency adjustment is a sign of monetary policy. if you supply more and more money relative to demand, the decline in sterling is a panic. i think it has partly been because the supply has picked up but at a time obviously when the ecb is going to continue to increase its game. francine: should the ecb also wait for what the fed is doing? we saw that from the central bank of australia. ewen: they have had to rate cuts in fairly quick order and i think we will wait until they have their over inflation report. i think the ecb has got the problem that it cannot pull back , it cannot give up at this stage. it has to widen the menu of what it does and that can be tricky in some cases. i would guess that it is going to be the normal mario draghi performance of war people up and drop it in after that. in after that?it it is not a done deal? ewen: it is not, and it is a question of what do they do. keys,y change capital widen the range of assets? i think what you will see is a lot of technical adjustments but what they are not going to do is give up on the program and neither is governor kuroda. tom: i did euro-sterling because i missed you yesterday, cable, and up we go with sterling weakness. the brexit announcement and up we go, a weaker euro-sterling. within that is the overlay of what mario draghi does. let me ask a blunt question -- is there a shortage of paper in europe? .wen: there is going to be as of today there is not because of seasonal reasons that the ecb was below the running race in august but there is going to be, particularly german paper unless they change the rules. "unlessike the phrase they change the rules." what do you expect from mr. draghi? is it thursday? ewen: yes, thursday. they try to donk it once on a wednesday and the market freak out. ewen: it is a two-day meeting. francine: the problem is everything is on a timeline so if you are the ecb and the fed does something, what is the central bank that has the most to lose if they misread the fed? what are they going to lose at this stage? it is credibility. it is completely about -- not completely about inflation, credibility is something. the market not because of what they are saying but because of what they are doing. , describe it as confiscation qe is buying products and you have this insane competition. that is one of the reasons why emerging-market debt is running as strongly over the past several months. francine: black rocks yuan rocks ewenblack cameron watt stays with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance tom: francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. airbus has one about six and a half billion dollars in orders from airlines in vietnam. expected to be one of the 10 fastest-growing aviation markets in the next two decades. british airways says it systems are back on my after computer problems caused widespread delays. passengers said it took two hours to check into flights and in some cases, employees were writing out boarding passes. the latest in a series of data signaling momentum and europe's largest economy. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. has sweetened its takeover bid for monsanto. they are in advanced talks to what would be the largest deal ever. ewen cameron watt is still here. this is a huge deal because monsanto is so valuable and one of the only assets left in this kind of consolidation that may be bayer is willing to overpay. sure andy, i'm not so when we had first written about this deal in may people were talking about $135 animals $150, and this seems to be an they are willing to go but people are asking could this go hostile? francine: where this go through if they were hostile? ruth: analysts are speculating there is only a 50% chance of the deal going through with the approval then he to get from lawmakers and antitrust officers. beng hostile is not going to easy but that seems to be an option on the table right now, that is the understanding we get. tom: is there somebody else out there? would like us to believe there is somebody else out there and they have been saying they have strategic alternatives and other approaches. a little while back we had monsanto wast looking at buying one of the bsf units but if you look at syngenta and cam china and dow they are already there. tom: monsanto is not a true multinational, is it? it is a smaller company then we perceive, right? yes, and because of falling crop prices are the following share christ -- share price, and it is not at the level that iris are saying they are willing to pay so what has been vulnerable for a take aim are -- a takeover. this is more than just the chemical industry, right? this is cheap cash and big companies coming together. ewen: the aggregate chemical industry is a great industry because you get very long product life. think of it like the ethical drug companies. the drug is therefore long period of time, the approval periods are shorter. life so at ale time when people need long cycle cash flows, monsanto is not a big gush as big a company as many people think but it is the only prize left in that space. francine: coming up, we have a willd show, robert hormats join us at 6:00 a.m. in new york. we will be talking about vladimir putin's game plan. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: new york city, it is september which means baseball is heating up. in the new york mets playing the nationals of washington and a good time was had by all. it was a three ice cream baseball game. francine: now you are talking my language. up until ice cream you were talking chinese. it is time for our morning must-read on baseball -- no, i'm kidding. formally the u.s. will -- formally ratified the climate agreement. this is what they say in the report. to combat climate change is rising. the risks are underappreciated yet could soon start to unfold. significant spending on sustainable infrastructure and government incentives are needed to meet emissions reduction target. it is largely, it is delivered somewhat but the talk about recession and the concerns in the economy meant that in certain cases climate change has taken a back door. ewen: let me put it this way. we have got this very powerful triangle forming of regulators being able to regulate more fsb taskhings like force is reporting at the end of the year. the board headed by mary schapiro and the sec has done its work and fiduciaries should -- regulation is going to increase in the cost of the technology to do this is coming down rapidly. battery storage technology. francine: but so is oil. alternative power generation is cheaper on a transmission basis at an auction scenario then other power. this is a risk that does not go away, it accumulates over time. there is an adaptation of being pressed by a regulator. tohink this is the potential be as big a disruption over the next five years essentially as shale was for the oil industry over the last five. francine: why our markets not seeing it? ewen: when did markets start to see the point of shale? francine: when it was too late. ewen: after six or seven years of explication. -- six or seven years of exploitation. growthsons to do with and with taxation an opportunity. be small cities rather than big national governments and the other thrust seems to be private enterprise ponying up the money and creating their own incentives. if we are going to get anywhere on this issue, can we go it alone versus big government, big institutional mandates? ewen: big institutional mandates are changing because people like the public in the united states are very much acknowledging, and the same as is true for europe. i think it is a question of how the profits develop over time that will ultimately change people's minds. if this disruption comes from technology or physical risk or regulation, that concentrates. tom: where does the u.n. fit in? ewen: it is the cheerleader, it is appearing in the bleachers if you want to keep with the baseball analogy. i see it very much as one of the enabling bodies and there are many of them. francine: what is the most critical? the problem is you are basically saying the markets are misunderstanding so if i were a market participant listening to you, what am i researching first of all? ewen: because i think profits will change people's minds, i guess it is the speed of disruption. generation energy and the lowering price of battery storage, it is a big story. it is happening so rapidly and we are seeing people paying up for access to this. i think this is something that is gradually going to grow. francine: thank you so much for joining us, ewen cameron watt of the blackrock investment unit. coming up we speak with francesco garzarelli at 5:30 in new york, 10:30 in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. let's get to our first word news. taylor: president obama is in laos where he is pledging $90 million to clean up unexploded bonds and other munitions from the vietnam war as well as those injured when the devices explode . he is the first sitting u.s. president to visit laos. he is therefore a summit. presidential candidate donald trump is committed to taking place in all three debates with hillary clinton. previously he had hedged whether he would participate because of the moderators. the first debate is september 26. hillary clinton says it appear that vladimir putin and his aides will get some benefits and made it clear that tolerant -- interference will not be tolerated. anrobe found a pilot of emirates plane tried to take off again after crashing. a head wind started to shift to tailwind and back again. all 300 people aboard the plane .anaged to escape in venezuela the opposition is looking to build on the momentum against the president. opponents are trying to force the government to agree to a recall election. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. .rancine: thank you so much we are just getting breaking news out of south africa. we have been talking a lot about south africa because the finance minister has been embroiled in scandals. we are getting some second-quarter gdp figures out of south africa, expanding an annualized 3.3% in the second quarter, better than economists had estimated. they were predicting 2.6%. the rand gaining a touch on the back of that. a lot of high-yielding i.e. the rand, rose earlier this morning on confidence that the central banks will go out of their way to avoid jolting financial so that coupled with better-than-expected gdp makes her a higher rand. it is a busy bank -- busy month for central banks. francesco garzarelli of goldman joins us with the very latest. great to speak with you. it is nice to get started for a september morning, the first tuesday of the month, it is going to be a busy month. what have we learned about central bank in action over the summer months. francesco: we have learned to have been discussing a lot where they are going to take rates eventually in the cycle. our debate has been a very central in jackson hole. we learned about the limit of implementing zero rate policies and collateral damage this particularly at the rallies at the long end of the curve, the damage to pension and insurance companies where low yields are created. francine: when does the yield start being normalized? the curve is basically nonexistent. ewen: we saw that turning a little bit -- francesco: we saw that turning a little bit in japan. i think that is a reflection mostly of how the central bank has spoken about its implementation of policy. the next big thing seems to be too stupid back the yield curve to make policy even more toective -- seems to be steepen back the yield curve to make the policy even more effective. the rates will be highly determined by what the central banks do. francine: what can the fed do to help or at least not hurt the rest of the world? francesco: i would say hike gradually. the ways this is going to go is they will hike again. he have higher chances of them moving already in september, mainly because we find it hard to see what they are going to come up with to say why they are not going. the unemployment rate was ok and we did not have a catastrophe two factors that refrained them from hiking in june. the narrative is straightforward for delivering a hike in september. the probability is not there but it would take a couple of speeches to lift it up. alongside with the hike, they could come out and say the trajectory is going to be lower, and that will be interpreted as a dovish normalization of policy. tom: it is a time for readjustment and i know you have done that with goldman sachs. this is the three major banks' assets. the white line is the u.s., the red line is japan, and down below is the tentativeness of the ecb. what is the new orthodoxy of economics that links into finance? what are you thinking about moving to october and into next year? francesco: i think the policy winds arehanging -- changing in a important direction. there are limits to lowering rates. lower-called effective bound is relatively shallow because of the institutional frictions that we live with. pushfore, there has been a towards expanding fiscal policy and allowing central banks to underwrite essentially bigger budget extensions through the qe plans. we are likely to see this in action in the u k the ecb will continue doing qe all throughout 2017 in our view and the boj has set the path. tom: is reflation possible? the idea that a bunch of policymakers can "reflate" and economy, is that even possible? francesco: i think so. i think we have been a bit unlucky as people would like to see inflation up because of what has happened to the energy markets, which was another normalization post crisis. the effect of that repricing of commodities is waning. in 2017 we should see a bigger contribution from energy and food. alongside that we are seeing economies that have received plenty of stimulus like the united states reducing inflation and services, which make up a lot of the cpi basket. tom: that is a very important point. tell me about the immense spread between fed watched inflation and service sector inflation in the united states at 3.2%. the is a remarkable divergence in our different price changes, isn't there? francesco: there is and in our experience and analytical work we find that service inflation tends to lead. it is more persistent. you have things like education, recreation. the prices generally have an asymmetric behavior. it is easy to see prices stay -- is ear to see prices stay stable or go up then to fall. inflation% service means that we are likely to stay there or go above. tom: francesco garzarelli with us. in the next hour we will drive forward the conversation, the dollar view, the ambiguity of the dollar view with stangl and -- with steven englander of citigroup. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." after labor day in america, september truly get started. francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. with us is francesco garzarelli. when a look at trade weighted and blended dollar dynamic, do we get a repeat of the stronger dollar? francesco: if the fed hikes as we think, i suppose so. i think the key to getting the dollar even stronger is seeing signs of inflation in europe and japan. they seem a bit convoluted but i think the problem here is despite all the policymakers, expectations of inflation have not increased in europe and japan and that has only led to higher real rates in comparison to those prevailing in the united states. that has kept the exchange rates stronger than warranted. as we go through the coming quarters and see more fiscal policies being delivered to these economies, europe and japan, and that starts working its way through prices, i think there is hope to see the dollar stronger again. also a stronger european and japanese domestic demand should relax the fed and get them more comfortable with the hiking cycle. tom: mervyn king calling it a level change, let's bring up the chart of the dxy. you can see the range bound action for two and half years and range bound recently as well . i believe within a currency war other nations want their currencies weaker so is brazil or the united kingdom, are they rooting for a stronger dollar? francesco: i think it is a cheap way of getting out of problems, which we have tried, countries have tried time and again. if you are small maybe you can get away with it, small in terms of your share in global trade. if you are the size of japan or the euro area you would hardly think that is going to last for long. i think what is missing in those places as we need a revival of domestic demand and that needs to be encouraged by furthers policymaking -- further policymaking. as i said before, i think there is a change in the political greater recognition that fiscal policy can play a role here. francine: going back, is that the end of the currency wars? we see the yuan a little bit marketsd it seems the are testing the app the site for the pboc. everybody wants a weaker currency. is at the end of the euro where it is a race to the bottom? francesco: i think so. it has been discussed at least twice this year in g-20 for a a.h for a -- for the experience of 2013 proves it, it is a one off but if that initial boost is not followed by other things happening mostly on the domestic side. you have the most to lose if they misunderstand what the fed is doing. the biggest experiment which is on the verge of possibly failing, is japan, is that fair? francesco: they have been where they are for 20 years so i think in the global equilibrium, particularly for markets, we talk a lot about japan because where the jgb's have yielded and they are at the forefront of these problems so we are all watching what they are going to next to learn something about what they can export. would not say japan is central in the way the european area is. europe is the underperformer in the cycle. tom: francesco garzarelli with us. later today on bloomberg radio, really looking forward to speaking with dennis garden. -- gartman. dennis gartman on the collapse of wheat. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is a picture of the city of london. this is i think millennial bridge. keene's all-time favorite landscape in london. tom keene is in new york, im francine lacqua in london. tom keene said we do not have a good landscape. the worstandscape is in london. what else do i need to say besides the walkie-talkie? francine: i quite like it. oneead of talking economics day we are going to two or all of the london monuments. let's get up to speed with corporate news. taylor: bayer has increased its bid for monsanto a second time to about $56 billion. the have been in advanced talks for what would be the biggest agriculture related takeover ever. evaluatingys it is the offer along with proposals from other parties. struggling. the company filed for receivership last week. needs money tone pay fuel bills and for port operators to unload cargo. apple unveils its newest iphone tomorrow. unlikely to have any breakthrough features that marked earlier models. iphones made up almost two thirds of apple's revenue and iphone sales have been falling. that is your bloomberg business flash. gene munster will join us to pick up the debris after the announcement on thursday. i will be buying one, francine. so idue for an upgrade will be buying one of the 12 that are sold. tell,ne: as far as i can a bigger screen and better camera but i'm not sure how it works. you can also listen to music without the line. i am looking forward to buying an iphone and discussing it on the air. that's turned to european politics. now that the u.k. has decided to leave the eu the next challenge is italy. we are with francesco garzarelli really -- and just googlers a really. when you look at -- francesco garzarelli. when you look at europe as a whole you were calling it the underperformer. politically it makes everyone less fragile yet we are growing a touch. this year itthink is just above 1% and next year it will be a little above that with some fiscal contribution. remains stuck at 1% and if you look at the forwards, it is going to be there forever which is really the disappointing feature. francine: do you worry about italy? you are in italian and there is the referendum does not get through and renzi has to step down and something uglier will pop up. with that play on the market that the ecb is there? francesco: let's talk about the referendum in a line, it is not a brexit winery event. event.e trying -- binary they are trying to make the constitution more stable and effective. they tried 10 years ago and ofled so it is a repeat something the italians have been trying to deliver since the 1980's. why does it matter now? there is this sense that italy needs to change in order to improve in its growth performance. that thed be a signal direction is still the same. italy has a, problem with its banks. the banks need to be, some of them recapitalized. there is plenty of nonperforming loans, so having a government failing on this referendum and therefore would be weaker could create some problems for the ecb. tom: let's look at the italian struggle you just mentioned. a four yearian gdp, moving average, a stunning chart taking the four year moving average back to 2002 and 2003. just a stunning failure. from a distance, what is the level of screen? we saw a merkel defeat over the weekend. what is the primal scream of the people? how loud will it be? francesco: i think they are really screaming from what i read. if you add up the five-star which tends to be more on the anti-establishment side of the political spectrum, political projections give them 40% of the national vote which is high in the context of the bigger european country. if the elections were to be run today in the lower house, you would most likely have one of these populist movements taking power. the problem is on the upper house there is a. a proportional electoral law in t pur --ity proportional electoral law in place. i think italy cannot afford it. tom: what does goldman sachs think about eastern europe? it has been quiet recently but i do not buy it. francesco: there is always stuff brewing. i think is to your is in general enjoying this growth in the core countries with very low rates. there is some vulnerability initiate -- originating from the low rate environment should policy change course. it is not a focal area. i think the focal areas are politicalthere is brewing in spain as well. francine: you said it would take a couple of speeches from fed officials to reprice markets, right? the fed would never move if the markets were not fully priced in september? francesco: why do liver a shock whyt now, it is strange -- deliver a shock right now, it is strange. , thee emphasis were to be haslative data up until now been sufficient for us to deliver this other hike we are going to do it but then something about the path being lower, i think that will fit the bill. from alook at this distance and the vote against merkel on immigration this weekend, i just think sets the tone for the autumn in europe. that is stunning. francine: it is a stunning statement. for the first time there is a real combination of the u.s. politics. you have an election with donald trump running and they are running on the same fears, be it brexit or the movement in italy. that is what is worrying it's global. tom: francesco garzarelli with goldman sachs. robert hormats will join us of kissinger associates, steven englander of citigroup as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: the summer ends, the fall begins. in this hour, janet yellen adjusts to america's great europe, japan,h china, and britain. in this hour, robert hormats on -- the philippines, in a pivot to a new level of indecency. prepare for aump september 26 debate. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. it is tuesday, september 6. any number of ways, francine, to reset? i would be set on the politics of europe, the defeat of chancellor merkel in germany. francine: especially when you look at factory orders in germany pointing to slower momentum, to brexit, and then we need to look further east to the emerging markets. they are gaining. tom: robert hormats will join us in a bit. right now, "first word news" with taylor riggs. presidentilippines rodrigo duterte -- the white house canceled a meeting with him after an expletive-filled tirade at the u.s. president. on monday, duterte warned against the u.s. interfering in the war on drugs. today he says that he regrets his comments came across as a personal attack. the u.k. secretary of state pre-brexit has made his -- he says there is no turning back. at the end of the process, britain will be out of the european union. >> the prime minister has made clear there will be no attempt to stay in the eu by the back door, no attempt to delay, frustrate do will of the british people. no attempt to engineer a second referendum. because some people did not like the first answer. several parliamentary committees say they will investigate various aspects of brexit. kabul, afghanistan, the talibanadly attack. two explosions outside the afghan defense ministry killed at least 24 people. 90 were wounded. the taliban has been gaining ground and increasing its hold in territories across afghanistan. results from the election in hong kong show a strong performance by younger, more radical lawmakers. china is warning that any support for independence is against the law. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more i am taylorntries, riggs. this is bloomberg. francine, tom? tom: let's get to the data right now. ambiguity over the next six minutes -- futures up three, the euro has done nothing. -- x crude post jobs, the vix, great equity markets. francine? francine: what do you mean ambiguity? markets today are on fire, at least a little bit. they were flat in europe. high-yielding currencies rising on the back of the fed. the pound, 1.3338. tom: let me go over to the bloomberg right now. joe from deutsche bank, thank you so much for saying, he