what is the take at tcw? laird: i think unless we get more financial calamities, the fed is not going to be done. it rests on the equation outlook. this morning's number you have to discount highly because it is made up of two extremely volatile series that must economists don't put much weight into, at least in the short term. the inflation picture, i think there is a good chance that they will pause at this meeting. hate to be in consensus, but it sounds like i am. we do think the employment number tomorrow probably kicks in slightly on the strong side based on the diffusion indexes that came out today and some other data points. our expectation is that absent more banks failing, or problems in the economy, unemployment rising, you will see the fed continue to ratchet up rates. it's the paradox of fixed income, the higher they take rates, the more calamitous the end will be. but they are not going to stop until they see rates -- until they see those calamities right in front of them. that's usually the stor

we think tips represent compelling value at tcw. katie: what does the j.p. morgan asset management view? they haven't really done super well in this inflationary environment. do you think they make sense or other better inflation hedges? oksana: i is that from the standpoint of a return investor, someone different from a more benchmark aware investor. my new 2.4 risk is essentially quiddity. -- liquidity -- i sense is a risk is essentially liquidity. tips do not really represent tremendous opportunity in our opinion because the duration and they tend to be longer duration and will dominate the risk. we the fed will continue to be on that pause or even hike further. at least it will not be immune to the interest rate risk. as much debt or in combining or having dry powder in your portfolio. and then attacking opportunities as they arise which we have seen some in credit related markets, not as much that will come our way over the next 12 to 18 months as the consumer turns over which we have not, commercial real estate issues come to pass. they are going to be

i tcw we are value oriented investors.n create tremendous opportunity to identify those dislocations and lean in on behalf of our clients. >> in this environment that comes with a certain amount of risk. katie: from an asset class perspective, i want to talk about private credit. it gives me a chance to make a new headline. when they interviewed me about private credit and the headline they picked up his big accidents ahead. it was amusing because my head of distribution was there and we had just done 40 lp meetings and you said you know we are trying to raise capital? this is my second chance for my bloomberg headline. romaine: i hope everyone is ready. katie: private credit, enormous opportunity. i eventually did get that message out. it will be an opportunity because whenever capital withdraws there is an opportunity for outside returns and we think that is the next decade. manager selection matters is two quick things to say. 96% of private credit at borders started post global crisis at a low 20 rate environment and w

it was an interesting view that came through from tcw group ceo, you heard so much about office real the office has not eventuated. perhaps hybrid work is the new norm across different sectors. commercial real estate really suffering in particular. katie kirsch saying -- katie koch saying it will have a shakedown similar to brick-and-mortar retail stores. it comes down to her assessment of the outlook for the u.s. economy, in particular she is seeing of risk of a hard landing. >> we are at the precipice of the economic landscape changing and people wondering whether we are going to have a recession and what type of landing we will have. i think until we get more certainty around that, we should expect that to be the continued backdrop for investing. shery: the malaysian ringgit declined as they signaled a higher chance of an extended rate pause. any further rate hikes will depend on how inflation hates. >> i think if you look at all of the economies, they are roughly the same. we have the crisis and measures, rapid inflation because of the supply, and subsequently demand. there are a

coming up tcw group codirector will be joining us on bloomberg at 1 p.m. new york time. i think we have done a superb job. all of us, we have to bridge it, but there is nothing that can replace personal interaction. so we are working to get more people back into the office. it will be good for society and the overall industry and for deutsche bank. and most importantly people need to interact. guy: that was the deutsche bank ceo speaking exclusively to me yesterday about the companies return to office policy. in the united states, they've taken a more clear line that you have to come back into the office. citi is one of a more relaxed banks on wall street and it is making it very clear during the process and the stuff we are about to go through that come back has an impact. with pay and positions and if you do not come back into the office that may have a reverse impact as well. joining us is sonali basak. certainly they have taken a more benign approach than others. why is that now changing? i read this worry on the terminal. it struck me as a straightforward one come b

coming up, tcw group codirector joining us at 1:00 p.m. new york time.omberg. >> forecasting has been difficult in an area with such big things going on. there's a war, we've had the pandemic. we need to understand how we can best respond to those shocks. i would say within this, and terms of inflation, we have raised interest rates by nearly 5% in two months so we take this function. guy: andrew bailey, the government of the bank of england yesterday as they surprise markets with a 50 base point height. i'm not sure there were that many people who were surprised. the papers this morning absolutely brutal in their assessments of the job the governor and bank is doing right now. bumbling called the daily mail to the bank availing -- bank of england, the bumbling governor is badly failing britain. the telegraph or we hurt by the chest thumping blunder and for no good reason, the credibility is on the line. let's see if we get a nice line at a few, asset management founder and cio. nice to see you. >> really today the si capitalist. guy: i was going to mayb

also tcw will be speaking.i think this is interesting because of the backed up to the pricing out of rate cuts is a banking crisis that's over. that seems to be the theme suffer 30 p.m. when we get that balance sheet as well as discount lending can we count the bank crisis is over as the fed's balance sheet is back to where it was? tom: glad we did this this is the heart of the matter. they are looking at qt is the tipping point were we go in the third quarter. jonathan: if they want to tighten many policy they better do that. chief market strategist for our audience this might sound like a little bit of a dire workout regime but it's not it's about markets. you said light and tight, walk me through what you want no? >> don't blame us for everything. light and tight basically means keep a little extra cash and be a little bit more on the defensive side. i've been hopefully every clear -- very clear every time we've been on. economically i sobered expect of recession. ultimately there is three stages of a market

. >> tcw you wonder what the risk is at some point, right? returns are very good right now >> returns are very strong right now. >> everybody's jumping in. >> the risks are that, yeah, companies like wolfspeed don't make it. >> don't make good >> but you can see right now it's having a positive impact on that company stock price as well finally, on the m&a front, in the public markets, i did want to mention amadesus, terminates a deal it had to be acquired by option care. unh is coming in to do it. that was not unexpected. we told you when we first heard about the unh bid of $101 cash to stock that that was likely. now the question becomes, is option care health potentially for sale as well that's pure speculation on the part of some shareholders who would like it to be the case, but did want to bring that up to date optum has entered a definitive agreement, terminated their previous agreement, paid the break fee, and they're on their way. >> had a lot of m&a today. >> i really did. unexpected >> action-packed summer monday the only thing i w

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