only became aware the irs had confirmed that tax data access to the past willing to the deer team and had been used to fraudulently file tax returns we activated our incident response practices. this involve coordination of resources together forensic data and gain a better understanding of the incident. we held daily meal meetings to facilitate between my office, federal student aid in the irs. we reported the incident to the office of inspector general into the united states readiness team at homeland security. while the department systems are involved, this was an scheme directed at retrieving tax data from the irs. there is no evidence the malicious actors were able to access personal information from the system. i'm confident the personal information the department has on borrowers, students, parents remains appropriately protected. i will describe several actions we've taken to further strengthen and enhance our cyber security program to protect sensitive data that is managed by the department. incident response is a priority. in 2015 we created a workgroup to address data breac

the tool. specifically, taxpayers' adjusted gross income data. you need that agi to awe then kate the identity for the irs and file tax returns so all hackers needed to do was go to the dark web by a cache of american taxpayer personally identifiable information, use that to get in to the fafsa.gov and the data retrieval tool and then they had everything that they needed to steal tax paying citizens' refunds. this is exactly the kind of hacking scheme that the federal agencies must be aware of when they make their services available online. if sensitive data can be accessed through an online application, it must be secured with strong authentication measures and appropriately encrypted. we need to call these events what they are. data breaches and major incidents. facing the truth is important not only because the incidents ultimately affect hundreds of thousands taxpayers and probably millions of students applying for student aid, but it also -- because without understanding the threats we face we can't protect ourselves. it took the internal rev

the second part of this is security of the data. sure that you're actually building the algorithms with security, the data sets with security, so somebody can't just break in? that has to be no longer an elective system, outside. it has to be part of the core training. once you have this component of that training, i think we're going to have a new set of people who have the vocabulary to talk about it. but that doesn't take into account the speed at which data is happening and taking place today. so what do we do there? number one, transparency. president obama signed an executive order that says by default all data the federal government, the us federal government, publishes must be open and machine readable, and what that allows people to do is be able to access the data, compare it, use it, and innovate with it. and that is the problem. how do we strike that balance? we need to know that an ai system is not biased, it's learned from a data set that is representative of all of us and its decisions are fair, but we also don't want

so you need the space to store the data. you need to build the services to retrieve the photos out of i dent or the data base, stage them and create that gallery per flight. then you have to procure the matchers, the algorithms from the the technology companies that build these. you have to implement that and build the protocol between the camera at the gate and getting into that gallery to match and have a response back. so, what we're working with -- while we're building that out, that will take us the rest of this calendar year really to build that out. once we build that, we're working with the airlines and the airports on their own modernization plans because they're looking at self boarding gates, facial recognition for boarding passes, self tagging checked bags. we want to combine with them. so it's not a gauntlet of cameras you walk through to board a plane. it's one single photograph that we'll be able to take care of several purposes at once including the biometric exit. all the same data runs in the background. the

they don't have the key to de-encrypt that data. it's only the department of education once it gets to their site that they will be able to de-encrypt the data. mr. hurd: ok. ms. garza: that applicant -- mr. hurd: so mr. gray, how are you responsible responsible for fafsa.gov? mr. gray: yes, sir. mr. hurd: how are you able to authenticate it to the end user? mr. gray: we are looking at several proactive measures. mr. hurd: we are looking portends you are doing something in the future. do you have a past tense verb that you can use on what you have done? mr. gray: for the department we follow defense in depth and we have a whole series of actions that we're taking to ensure we protect our systems. mr. hurd: and what are those series of actions? mr. gray: some of them i referenced in my opening statement regarding data lost prevention, web access firewalls. mr. hurd: how does data loss prevention help with authentication? mr. gray: it would not. for authentication for fafsa, is the balance between -- this is an application form where u

are people with your skin colour the only ones in the data set, ami colour the only ones in the data i ignored? is thatan accident? but what about somebody with a handicap? what about a kid on a tricycle? it is not sufficient to say oops about the algorithm. we have to figure out a more robust process as these things are becoming more integrated into our society. and if we have learned anything from this week's facebook story, it is that tech companies are not the most transparent lunch. facebook has been around for more than a decade, and only now, by chance, have we got a glimpse of how its moderators decide what we see on its platform. so how do we make sure the ai built by the same tech companies are using our data responsibly? so the first, it comes down to how are you trained? in ourtraining comes down to how are you trained? in our training these days, we often have found that technologists are no longer trained in humanities. one of the most critical components of humanities is the notion of ethics, so humanities is the notion of ethics, so what we have called for is that ever

the data. so the applicant -- >> so mister gray, how do you respond? >> what are you doing to strengthen authentication. to authenticate to the end user? >> we are dealing with proactive measures. >> it portends to something in the future, and what you have done. >> and we protect these systems. >> >> i referenced them in my opening statement. >> how does that help with -- >> this is the balance, this is an application form. >> i get that. it is your responsibility to confirm entering the data is indeed the person who owns that data. >> i recognize that is a tough job. and the theft of 100,000 students, so the dart tool is lacking, my concern is everyone is doing this. and i want to hear that too. >> the authorities i have are very adequate. in terms of what we are doing, the acceptability of the tool which at this point is a web application where students and prospective borrowers, the level of authentication for that. disbursing the funds, and we are masking the data so that if an identity thi

citizen, we discard the data. but we have the -- we need to determine. >> manually or automatically? >> automatically with the facial recognition soft ware. we compare your photograph, your pass port photo we have with the department of state and if you match against that, we discard the data. so the plan for this year is to build out the back end services and build out the ability to take all of the manifests in, populate the galleries and build the data base space to store these and wer work on the infrastructure to match that. so you need the space to store the data, build the services to retrieve the photos. stage them and create that gallery per flight. then you've got to secure the matchers from the private sector and technology companies that build these and then you have to build the protocol between the camera that gate and getting into the gallery to match and have a response back. that will take thus rest of this fe fiscal calendar year to build that out. we're working with them on their own monitorizati

it seems the real damage is not so much patient data but the fa ct not so much patient data but the facta precaution, turn off their it systems to prevent the infection spreading. so they are resorting to pen and paper, asking patients not to turn up to accident and emergency wards. so the knock—on effects seem to be serious. you said there will be some pretty frantic people trying to get to grips with this, what will be the priority for the computer experts who have been drafted to ta ke experts who have been drafted to take a look at what is happening? priority number one will be to stop the malware spreading, which is why organisations have turned their computer systems. number two, will be to try to remove the malware. there are anti—virus companies that can actually obtain the encrypted signatures for this malware, well—known antivirus companies that offer a service to do that. so they will be bringing in the experts to try and remove this malicious softwa re try and remove this malicious software from their computer systems. some organisations might actually be tempted to pay the r

, big data, put it if the cloud, and is able to process that data and capitalize on it and ones ha use artificial intelligence. so the metric are not just financial metric or the normal, you know, trailing earnings-type metric. i think the metric are what are you going to see these companies innovating and doing in the future. >> it feels like they're operating totally away from washington, d.c. and everything going on right now, walter. but we are expecting the president to acknowledge a technology council potentially as soon as this week to be meeting with jared kushner, president trump, you know the drill. i wonder where the relationship is going to go, whether it will be friendly, whether they'll start talking about certain specific policies and making recommendations to president trump. what are you hearing about all that? >> i hate to say it, but it's been pretty irrelevant. i've sat on some of these councils before. nice talking around the roosevelt room. i don't see any major presidential policies. i think the type of policies you're seeing that are big are thing

>> i think the data is very good. are adding 180,000 jobs per month, twice what we need to bs sustainable level. unemployment should be going lower for the rest of the year. the economy is doing well, with good momentum. we have a way to go on inflation goals, but i am optimistic about the economy. we need to continue the process we started of getting interest rates back. haslinda: let's pick up on inflation. why aren't you that concerned about weaker inflation data? >> the inflation is influenced by a lot of different factors, and we have seen some transitory things push inflation down. but i look more broadly over the last couple years, i see inflation measures moving toward 2%. we are still a little bit below that, but with a strong economy growing at a good pace, i think that is going to give us a usft to inflation and move to i think 2% within a year or so. haslinda: if you continue to see inflation below 2%, when you have to rethink that you rate hike? >> well, i'm not saying what we will or won't do, but i thin

the data coming up next from new york. bloomberg. >> from new york city to our viewers worldwide, bloomberg daybreak. let's get you up to the speed on the market action. breaking economic data in the united states. onures up 45 on the dow, up the s&p 500, a holiday across much of europe. if you switch up the board, looking at the dollar-yen trade, up 2/10 of 1%. risk on. a weaker japanese yen story emerging. the brexit data comes in the united states. let's begin with year on year, loyd in line with month on month -- oyd in line personal income, a little bit softer than the estimate at 0.3. personal spending for the month of march comes in dead flat. the downside surprise at 0% for the month on march. the median estimate was 0.2. the bank in london, the personal income story, for suspending much softer. david: good news given the gdp numbers from friday. they have them fall off the table. jonathan: true story. and on the core as well, a lot of people are talking about the easter skew. the idea that we had a year on year fig

so the economic activities data is really the question mark.an do 2.5 to 3, i think the fed is a go, decent jobs report for the month of may as well in early june before the fed meeting. and wield e'll be watching the consumer data that would give the green light to hike again in june. >> steve, thank you. good stuff. >>> when we come back, awaiting comments from speaker ryan. we'll see if he weighs in on the house health reform bille and that latest cbo score. we're watching shares of amazon getting ever closer, 998 or so and change. s hey, the future, what's her problem? apparently, i kept her up all night. she said the future freaks her out. how come no one likes me, jim? intel does! just think of everything intel's doing right now with artificial intelligence. and pretty soon ai is going to help executives like her see trends to stay ahead of her competition. no more sleepless nights. - we're going to be friends! - i'm sorry about this. don't be embarrassed of me, jim. i'm getting excited about this! we know the future. we're going to be fr

where is the data ? we looking after your data. where is the data? rastructure for security reasons. how do i eat no my data is in good hands? we don't comment on that. -- how do i know. the wall street journal is reporting that ford is planning to cut about 10—per cent of its 200—hundred thousand strong global workforce. the firm had already announced plans to cut costs by 3—billion dollars — as car sales in the us have slowed. in a statement ford says it has not announced any new actions and it does not comment on speculation. we will update you as soon as we get more information. see you in a moment. a care home in cambridgeshire has been piloting an innovate set of asymmetrical exercises that have been used to help people with dementia, across japan. tim muffett has more. the hunters down care centre in cambridge and in the dementia unit a new chair based gymnastics programme seems to be making a difference. the programme is called love to move and its key feature is what is known as bilateral asymmetry. the movements on the left side of the body

up what we are looking for ahead of the data out of china. and a big week for the u.s. as well. facebook, jobs report, what to expect next from the singapore economist. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ we are counting your down to asia's first major market open. a bit of a light session given major markets like the u.s., japan, and china are closed for the holiday today. indeed, looks like they are pretty flat like on friday. this is daybreak asia. i am betty liu in new york. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. the latest jobs report, a piece of data the fed watches to determine policy. , and forecasts, 185,000 the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%. it is not just u.s. employment, japan also seeing the lowest jobless totals since 1994. let's look ahead. great to have you. we see the fed going to look at the we have seen for june, but we are seeing data in the second order, china and the u.s. going soft, money refusing to roll over. is it getting difficult to overlook the weakness in the data? thatrd: you are right, data has been solved. we have been telling people this is as go

accurate from the data analytics, they didn't have a place to go. amie parnes: clinton was furious about that. and made it known, sounding the alarm that when he was campaigning that was getting a different feel on the ground and he was questioning why he was being sent to a number of places when he should have been sent to what he thought were the opposite in fact. , so he was really kind of bothered by it. soledad: how its feels versus how it is reading on paper. jonathan allen: the data analytics were used as a decider, as one of the sources told us in the book, used a decider not a tool, they used that to determine all kinds of things including where to send , candidates. one of the things they lost out on, or one of the things they were driven toward because they were so focused on the data was to turn out clinton supporters instead of persuading people. president clinton wanted to go out and talk to people who weren't with her and try to make the case for her. data analytics folks told him it was a waste of time. soledad: jonathan allen and ami

our data is the numbers are reported and the soft data is numbers based. e line has gone up and up and come down a little bit there. it has stayed pretty steady. does the federal reserve put less weight on hard data and soft data because of this divergence? tol: i think they're trying reconcile the two and in some regards, they are writing off the weakness in the hard data of the first quarter due to other factors and the seasonality that seems to be impacting gdp year in and year out. forecasts are now rising above 3%. 4%.cast is running over because of the unusual noise which janet yellen referred to, they are stepping back and looking at a longer-term trend. and when they do that, they see the animal spirit of the soft data saying that there can be some improvement over that 2% underlying pace in the economy. tom: our thanks to ira jersey and -- scarlet: our thanks to ira jersey and carl riccadonna. michael mckee is in washington at the federal reserve. thank you so much. tom, give us a data check. commodities,es, quiet meeting and quiet data check. that

caroline: at the moment, that is data meeting with health. olutely, but also, we are paying a lot for health care. are we getting enough for it? what are the things we can do to increase the efficiency of understanding diseases and what is happening in our health care delivery system? understanding how we pay for things. these are fundamental questions that are going to transcend any of the immediate political or payer shifts we are seeing. caroline: you're talking about seven or 10-year bets. we were just talking about valuations, and ge ventures feels that valuations are coming down. do you think they are, and what about the exit areas? krishna: i think it depends on the different areas. we are very active as a venture fund, so we are still seeing a lot of very robust valuations in parts of the market. i would agree that there are parts where the froth is cooling off. caroline: which parts? krishna: i think some of the areas where we have seen some social media, things like that, where you have seen the stories play out. caroline: with snap

i think if this gets mired down in congress, the hard data in the soft data may go down together. have to be watching and expanded funnel of doubt. inen the plans that the ministration has. jonathan: the looking at two faces -- those statements yesterday. one is on the balance sheet. tom keene caught up with ben bernanke yesterday. this is what he had to say. ofthe fed has released a lot projections of what they think it will do and it depends where they decide to end up. i think the best guess is something like four or five years after they begin the process of unwinding, to give back to some kind of sustainable level. jonathan: that language, is there going to be an ultimate goal? the optimal size of a balance sheet? now that is not in the cards. i think the desire is to get going with the process, knowing it is going to take a while wherever they are going to. this is something that we have been wondering about. jonathan: just very quickly, when this balance sheet process normalization, whatever they are going to call it, does the bond market remain calm? do we get a 2013 scena

down side as opposed to the hard data following the survey data to the upside.acts at hand suggest that's happening. >> on the issue of the harder data, yesterday charles evans said that for an inflation targeting central bank they should at some point in the cycle try to hit their inflation target. does that speak to you to suggest that these expectations, whether 80% slipping now to 70% for a june rate hike look too optimistic? >> i would say if you look at historical record, even if we're at 7 %. the market is still priced 70% by the time of the meeting, the fed will go. that is enough of a probability that they would raise rates, then it's a question as to, you know, what's the forward guidance for anything else for the balance of the year. i think that we won't find out until the transcripts come out why the fed is raising interest rates now. they may have their own reasons to do it. it can't be core inflation. strip out tobacco prices, core was flat again for the second month in a row. that usually happens when you're in a recession or coming out of one. i

." ♪ haidi: cap the data and concerns about north korea. missile launch seen as a direct challenge to washington and south korea. china lays the foundations for a new east-west trade route. rishaad: the weekend hackers may strike again on monday. at apple's market capitalization in excess of $800 billion. if you add them up, you have a #8527,d capitalization, we are at roughly $3 trillion. quite something. that is what we have at the moment. some people saying these five have too much clout when it comes to soft power and real power with the amount of data they have at their disposal. the tech names pushing higher with the rest of the market treading water. on the asian agenda, some china expected, retail sales come industrial production, some of that expected to have ease, particularly industrial activity , painting the picture q1 was week. i want to touch on the credit data over the weekend and on friday. , credit expansion continues to push forward despite the deleveraging campaign from beijing that has shaken the markets. we did see the

is coding that in the data system as a hate crime. so it's an actual crime that the police have been involved in. we know that some states are better than others in reporting. we are getting better at that. we're training every year about 1,400 new police departments locally. expecting about 1,400 more trainings -- agencies trained this year. so those are actual cases. when you look at the bureau of justice statistics, that's done by a polling methodology. senator feinstein: can i interrupt you? how many cities don't report at all? mr. treene: there are some states that don't report at all and there are some -- a number of cities. i don't have the exact number. senator feinstein: see, that might be a good thing to take a look at because if i'm right and the local leader makes a difference in all of this, staying quiet and doing nothing isn't helpful. mr. treene: yes, senator. one thing we did last year in the summer, and we expect to do again is to reach out to our 94 u.s. attorneys to -- and giving them -- we gave them a list of who -

if it's about the hard data here and if the soft data gets softer and the hard data is going to do whateverhe hard data's going to do, maybe the fed can get back to its core mission here and go into some sort of gradual replacement from the extraordinary measures it's had. david: what about this? is the fed backed in a corner? it's not -- they said we are not going look at the trump trade in our decisions and that hasn't changed. >> indeed. it is the case. we're still expecting two rate hikes this year in june and september. however, one thing that may change and that is the real risk for them. the timing of those hikes in a sense that any tightening in the financial conditions in the u.s. on the back of what's happening in washington, d.c. may indeed force their hands and make them have to wait before they want to have any ongoing tightening in he financial conditions. they are not necessarily that bad. it's one of the best performing economies of the world. from that point of view the fundamental support for the dollar should be there. but at the moment, the key risk here is that any pote

location of the person whose data is being sought. is, after all, the person that has rights and the person whose interests are devalued when data is obtained without proper process. accordingly, i propose legislation called the international communications privacy act, or icpa, that sets clear rules for when and how u.s. law enforcement can access electronic data based on the location and nationality of the person whose data is being sought. i intend to introduce an updated version of this legislation in the future. here's what the updated legislation will say. if a person is a u.s. national or located in the united states, then law enforcement may compel disclosure, no matter where the data is stored, provided the data is accessible from a u.s. computer and law enforcement uses proper criminal process. if a person is not a u.s. national, however, and is not located in the united states, then different rules apply. these rules are founded on three principles: respect, comity, and reciprocity. first, respect. if u.s. law enforcement w

i can provide you the data after the session.t's a very small percentage that we can provide that information after the hearing. >> and small as a guess less than 1%, less than 5%? any sense of how small is small? >> don't have that but i will provided. >> thank you. let me close by saying i did leave the most effective way to end the meth crisis in a state like montana and allow the healing process to begin is going to be by cutting off meth at its source. yes, we have to work on our demand issues, but we can work together here on source. we will need the collaboration between the usps, cbp and our foreign posts stakeholders. and if our foreign post stakeholders decide not to cooperate, i do think we need to take stronger action and do put america first in this equation. thank you, mr. chairman. >> thank you, mr. daines. senator heitkamp. >> thank you so much, mr. chairman, for taking on this issue. it's critically important. i remember a conversation with last congress on dea was in the room and when i suggested that they may w

it is about distributing the data in the ledger. guy: time beats us.ning us this morning. sorry, matt? matt: i was going to say, very interesting stuff. thank you. up next, have european political risks past or is it merely dormant? take.t james' there is a lot going on. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ guy: welcome back. we continue to monitor coverage as it comes out of manchester and the political reaction in london and around the country. ning, thery in mour world in shock. we are likely to hear from the president of the united states. the british prime minister will have a cobra emergency meeting later on as well this morning. 22 dead. over 50 injured at a concert last night that was wrapping up at the manchester arena. bloomberg will have continuing coverage of the event and bring you any breaking headlines as they happen. get eurozone manufacturing and services pmi in about 10 minutes time. following up on solid manufacturing numbers that came out of germany. were 59.4, above a forecast of 58. we got a 58 out of france as well as i believe. strong pmi num

is it looking at the prioritization of data. upgrades with foreign shippers and under the current method you are using to try to address this situation how long do you the think it would take to get foreign countries to utilize aed at higher rates? do you plan to have those discussions, i guess? maybe we could start with mr. perez. >> through the pilot program we have, senator, with the u.s. portfolio service where currently getting advance electronic data from several different countries, specifically the pilot in jfk has to do with both china and france, and so we're going to continue to focus on,000 and work alongside our portfolio service partners to see what else we can do to make sure that we're being able to not only utilize and get that advanced tropg data but then focus our efforts to expand not only the stlool we're able apply but again, the quality itself so we can make better and more informed decisions on where it is we need to focus our efforts. >> mr. centron. >> yes. i can clarify. the point earlier is for us with

perez. >> i can provide you the data after the session.t the very small amount but i can provide it. >> small is less than 1%? less than 5%? >> i don't have that but i will provide it. >> thank you. i'd like to close by saying i do believe the most effective way to end this crisis in a state like montana and allow this healing process to begin will be by cutting it off at the source. yes we have to work on our demand issues, but we can work together on source and we will need the collaboration between the usps, cbp and are formed post take holders, and of our foreign post stakeholders decide not to cooperate, i do think we need to take stronger action and put america firstst in this equation. >> thank you. >> thank you so much for taking on this issue. it's critically important. i remember our conversation from last congress. dea was in the room and when i suggested they may want to use drug dogs to detect fentanyl packages, the dea told me that would not be wise given that if they could smell it they would die. mov were dealing with an in

. ♪ up, the u.s.ing payroll reports leaves the data on pace for a yield hike in june. ding the le pen risk. french fonds stabilize ahead of the final round of the french election. we begin with a solid jobs report for the fed in june. >> job creation remains solid. >> the number is a good number. >> the labor market is continuing to heal. >> there is room to maneuver. we are a long way from full employment. wage growth is a long way away from where we should be. >> there is something in there for everybody. that suggests the fed continues on their course. >> it is consistent with the fed hiking but not with economic takeoff. jonathan: joining me today is global management, hickmore, andke priscilla hancock. luke, welcome to new york city. let's begin. the consensus view is june there will be a move. luke: and i guess when the next one is. june is baked in. markets are adjusted for. if we get september, that takes us to three next year. that means we will talk about the number of rates next year. jonathan: this feels sequential, every other meeting with a news conference

i could provide you the data after the session. it is a very small percentage, but we can provide that information after the hearing. >> and small is less than 1%, less than 5%? >> we don't have that, but i will provide that. >> tjhank you. let me close by saying, i do believe the most effective way to end the meth crisis in a state like montana will be cutting off meth at its source. yes, we'll got to work on our demand issues, but we can work together here on source. we need a collaboration between bp, and our foreign post stakeholders. and if our foreign post stakeholders decide not to cooperate, i think we need to take stronger action and put america first in this equation. thank you, mr. chairman. >> thank you, mr. daines. >> thank you, mr. chairman for taking on this issue. it is critically important. i remember a conversation we had last congress. the dea was in the room and when i suggested that they may want to use drug dogs to detect fentanyl packages, the dea told me that would not be wise given that if they could smell

they demanded ransom to unlock the data. t provided a patch they have gone all the way back -- oftware and >> there is brad smith making some headlines and he is talking about exploit leaked into the domain. with seems to be a story that is going to run. is next story focused in on it is a victory and humiliating to fate destined feet for the democrats before merkel seeks a fourth term. defeats a humiliating before merkel faces the l's fourth term. >> they want to keep the size of the cap the same despite suggestion of deeper cuts and you have the energy ministers who have details of a new agreement finalized and we will have a lot more comments between now and then and they will all curry favor from the markets. >> it has made an impact here. >> over in germany, let's turn itthe german elections and is the industrial heartland. >> another setback for populism berlin.s get to this is a bit of a punch for you look at the head-to-head of the autumn elections. andhey are very important this is particularly important. is a massiv

the quality of the data has improved the justice department revised the report to collect data against arab or mome mormon or jehovah's witness or orthodox christian individuals. twenty-six requested the change but we can and must do better many still don't report hate crimes to the fbi wide atypically before between five and 10,000 he crimes, the true number may approach 300,000 which is 30 times the estimation. i just introduced of bill to update the arson bill with the intention of making a religious property. if somebody goes to another church to right threatening graffiti it has an impact on a wide range of people in has to be taken very seriously. money'' holocaust survivor and nobel laureate. sometimes in human lives are in danger and dignity is in jeopardy the become irrelevant. whenever they are persecuted because of race or religion or political view that must become the center of the universe. seventy-four working with us. >> i will not introduce our first witness, a special counsel for religious discrimination in the civil rights division of the department of justice i reco

the hard data is not bearing that out. sales data we saw a couple hours ago is pointing to that saying it is going to need to be drunk or than that if rognosis will' p come true. i think the fed is on course to do another two rate hikes this year. if it is going to be more than that i think they will need to see the data pick up more than it has up to now. vonnie: exactly and what channel would that come through? are we going to see -- need to see wage growth or will the market price it in and the rate will follow? richard: i think you hit it on the head. this exists for the federal reserve and the be ooe -- and the boe. i think you are right to highlight wage growth and i think the other thing they are watching that is important for the u.k. and the u.s. is retail sales because the consumer is important to both economies and the data we have seen so far this year has not been all that encouraging. mark: x comment on the french election. two basis has risen points this year -- this week. what would bring the spread narrow?

earlier we got the gdp data for the first quarter, revised data that came in higher than initially estimatedthat.

the bloomberg. we look at pmi data, which is a relief. e space index shows me something i should be a little more worried about. monitors 6000 places of industry in china. is it all good news in terms of manufacturing numbers today? in asia havegues an activity index. loss in thesear figures. there has been concern that china was slowing. they are seeing some encouraging signs coming back, but inflation is a very live topic. that will make the job of central banks globally more difficult to get inflation back toward target. what stephen was saying they set the input is in negative territory. last year we were talking about deflation. are, we have not capitulated again, but we're worried about the propensity to reflate the globe. david: absolutely. obviously china was a major cause of deflation globally but we had very strong, service-based inflation in europe and also in the u.s. situation not just in terms of manufacturing but also services. this is an interesting reading. the other piece that bloomberg intelligence did this morning, the

here's what the data suggests. the people areasymmetrical updaters in the sense that good news has a bigger impact than bad news. if people estimate that they are a six on the scale and an outsider says i'm an eight, i've learned. if they say i'm a six and an outsider says they are a4, then that isn't true. people believe the good news, not the bad news. if this is true for many personal things, with respect to the risk of having diabetes, insomnia, infertility, being vandalized, being trapped in an elevator, having a mouse or rat in your house, that sounds a little more like dr. seuss. apologies for that. then the information processing regularity is the news. people will update much more reliably with that than bad news. with bad news, they will say that his noise. good news they would say okay. so, we know that there is a asymmetry in and it turns out they have neurological foundations. it is an identifiable part of the brain that blocks updating with respect to that is. and if you zap it, then the good news and

the conversant business they had just acquired saw its sales decline by 9%. alliance dataed to suggest that this division would start to ramp in the near future when the company reported in january of last year, but then it got hit with a whole host of new problems. while the conversant business that they paid so much for did improve, growing at a 6% clip, that's a nice term, the company's other two divisions, private label credit cards and loyalty programs saw some softness versus the previous quarter. it was kind of a one step forward, two steps back moment. even worse, alliance data said it expected more credit losses going forward. management told us that their ka canadian business was struggling. in response, the stock plummeted 19% in a single session, falling from $247 down to $199, a bloodbath. and it kept tumbling over the next couple of weeks. no floor. the key tenant of the bear thesis is that alliant data systems turned out to have a lot more risk. we thought it was a credit card company and a rewards company. the majority of its business comes from issuing the

the third was the ism data. l do suggest that the economy should see a rebound in growth in the second quarter of the year. i think something at 2.5% seems reasonable. if we get a bounce back in inventories, then it could be closer to 3. it would leave growth in the first half of the year at 2% or a bit better, but not much stronger than that heading into the second half of the year. >> that 2% trend line really is basically becoming familiar. it's already relatively friendly for markets. i wonder if you see that changing at all, because of where we are in the economic cycle. do you see certain late-cycle indicators popping up, whether it is labor tightness or some fraying around the edges on consumer credit, auto sales rolling over, things like that. >> there's a variety of measures when we look at the labor market data across the board, we look at estimates of the output gap, the bank lending data, on the cni lending and consumer loans. all of that suggests a fairly mature cycle. we think there's a significant

the focus on the data and not so much the politics. >> the data has been getting better the last sixo nine months and the pressure now on the ecb talk more about that and not to be silent on the politics. it is a very delicate balance that draghi is trying to walk and recognizing the data is getting better and relieved the thatical stuff jonathan: the talk more about the data and less about france and they want to talk about italy as well. they cannot disregard the political nature of europe, can they? torsten slok: a number of political things on the horizon. what they would like to talk about is the data. they have been recognizing the data is getting better and that is what he is trying to say, we are looking at the data and things are getting bader full-time he is -- getting better and he is defending the policies. part is so compelling they have to change their guidance and direction of where they are in qe? summary for: in europe, most data is great except inflation. inflation has to be 2. they are hanging there hat -- their hat on this indicator that it is not the speed we wha

before they walk through the door. >> a.b., when i hear the term data analytics, i fall asleep. this is fascinating. if you dive into what jared kushner was able to accomplish during the election, he was instrumental in helping president trump win. he figured out through, i guess, social media, and sales of donald trump merchandise, the make america great caps, there was a vulnerable in the great blue wall and it could crumble and sent trump to michigan and as we know, it worked. so explain how it is possible there was a nexus with the russian data program and they may have piggybacked on what jared kushner was doing? >> i think jared and the team lucked into a way to use that data to realize that wisconsin and michigan instead of becoming automatically becoming a blue state on november 8th, were fertile ground for donald trump by selling hats and t-shirts. this is a place to target resources and social media campaign. in the end, it was helpful, obviously on the ground to the campaign in addition to just being a savvy operation. where it comes into con

the economic data are certainly getting better. we are seeing that and the soft and the hard data. e inflation data which keeps the ecb on the sidelines for now, inflation meaning well importantly more inflation expectations very subdued. the ecb will be on hold for a while. guy: they presented him with a tulip. just to make the point the bubbles can be blown. is there a danger that the ecb is focusing too much on inflation? j.: i think they have made huge policy mistakes. we're beginning to come to the conclusion that unconventional monetary policy has not achieved to achieve. out i think the united states federal reserve is now beginning to do the right thing. i think in raising interest rates, economies will begin to normalize because the one thing, the one feature of western economies, all advanced economies which remains a huge problem, is a lack of productivity growth. the lack of productivity growth is at the core of the remaining problems we have. there is a challenge to companies coming through in the u.k. there is a challenge to the american economy coming through from hig