quality of the data then more aggregate. >> so one of the studies it's not my study which is a study by microsoft and columbia researchers, they study pancreatic cancer and they used anonymous data over time the same users to make searches over many months, they said. >> they know who searching there just now looking at the actual name of the person? >> they link. then they said somebody probably has pancreatic cancer and they make a link of just diagnosed. if you get a diagnosis like that you probably turn to such a search engine because of such a big event in your like. then he said if your people who we know have pancreatic cancer this month and here some people never got diagnosed. and then this happens to users over time and they said what were they searching in the months leading up to the diagnosis? what symptoms are they search in. what symptoms predicted that you would have it. they found settled patterns that indigestible by abdominal pain is a risk factor. indigestion by itself is not a risk factor. and if you're anything like me you're g

and if they access the data of u.s. persons or legal permanent residents, they are required to put in certain protection in place. in addition, the request have to be particularized, targeted. there's limits under duration. there's a requirement of judicial review. i think where the critiques come in are with the specifics of what's required. there are suggestions that some of the language judicial review or oversight, not entirely clear what oversight means, it requires judicial review. there's other questions about the predicate factual standard. credible facts. there's some who think it should be higher than that. i personally think one thing that should be included any my final bill would be some explicit mechanism that protects the company. they have any questions about whether or not request meets those standards, it would protect them, allow them to kick it up to the department of justice and kick in the other mutual legal assistance treaty process. so there's clearly minor modifications that i think that can be m

microsoft refused to comply on the grounds that the data from the u.s. government was located on a server in maryland. had said it only territorial reach and could not reach data outside the united states. the government's position was that they can access it all the time, there is nothing extraterritorial about it. exercise territorial because it is being served on the authority but it can do everything the u.s. government would like it to do from the united states. the second circuit reversed it, they thought that it was microsoft and said at least according to the circuit, the only reach the data that is physically located within the united states. somehas been described by as a privacy victory. that for disagree with a moment. for the whole conversation about the robustness of the u.s. war authority, in this case the u.s. government accessed the data based on probable cause which is standardally higher than other places around the world. if the net consequence is the u.s. would like data located around the united states it needs to go to that foreign

with all the tools the government has that the companies give them, data backed up to the cloud, meta data, locational data, sometimes the government will have to do it the hard way. but in the greater good of security for everybody, that may be the right way. and that's what i would say congress ought to bear in mind when they look at this problem. thank you very much. john donvan: thank you michael chertoff. and that concludes round three of this intelligence squared u.s. debate. [applause] john donovan and now it's time : to learn which side you feel has argued the best. we want to ask you again to go to the key pads at your seat and vote for a second time. take a look at the motion. tech companies should be required to help law enforcement execute search warrants to access customer data. push number one if you agree with the motion, the motion -- the side argued by this team. push two if you disagree with the motion, this team. push number three if you became or remain undecided. ok, and one thing i want to explain about our voting rules -- we give victory to the team whose number

the ability to protect data targeted by others. john: what about the point that when there is a unique ability, that changes the standard? agenthere is only one that can help law enforcement, i think that is what he was implying, that it changes the formula somewhat. >> i don't think it changes the formula. i think ultimately it comes down to burnham suddenness -- bur densomeness. a person is ton do anything absolutely at all. eness in thensom sense it will be burdensome on the company. a master key essentially systems an operating that shuts down after you try to break it, it would compromise not just a phone, but all of the phones. therefore, if somebody got hold of that capability, it would not just be a single phone broken, it would be everyone's phone. that was the burden they were worried about. john: your response. challengethe need to the moderator as well as the other side, i apologize. both you and the other side suggested that no one is arguing that there is no obligation to help in these circumstances. in fact, when i wa

the ability to protect data targeted by others. john: what about the point that when there is a unique ability, that changes the standard? agenthere is only one that can help law enforcement, i think that is what he was implying, that it changes the formula somewhat. >> i don't think it changes the formula. i think ultimately it comes down to burnham suddenness -- bur densomeness. a person is ton do anything absolutely at all. eness in thensom sense it will be burdensome on the company. a master key essentially systems an operating that shuts down after you try to break it, it would compromise not just a phone, but all of the phones. therefore, if somebody got hold of that capability, it would not just be a single phone broken, it would be everyone's phone. that was the burden they were worried about. john: your response. challengethe need to the moderator as well as the other side, i apologize. both you and the other side suggested that no one is arguing that there is no obligation to help in these circumstances. in fact, when i wa

the u.s. can access data held by u.s. companies, when that physically stored outside the united states, is issue. related that issue involves the modern the 1986ation of act.d communications which is working its way courts.y through the it's a case that was brought by microsoft and concerns data that held in ireland is currently be with the university supreme court. there are equities on all sides of these issues. to ensure that law enforcement can do its job consistent with the fourth amendment, how do protect the privacy of global users of a communications infrastructure. how to do right by private way that doesn't stifle innovation, lead to data localization and respect the faced by global communications companies that maybe caught between competing laws of different countries. sides to this issue. probably all the participants in this discussion agree that these various challenges exist and concerns that are expressed are legitimate. question then is what comes next in terms of how to address these issues. changes, if

what are the principles that we were ground in? first, only government data. to be thes have businesses' data so we used 70 sources out of 120 databases. beber two, you have to factual and unbiased. no forecast. no projections. i think that is very important. there are plenty of people who do forecast and that is where there is some since a bias that come into peoples' heads because nobody knows what it is. 10k has to be comprehensive and talk about the whole business in a reasonable and responsible way. 10k have to provide contests, historical and others. find in a things we lot of political debate is people will snatch one number out of the air and without context around at the number, it is hard to know if it is being or small. if you say to the average citizen, $5 million, that will say, whoa, huge number. if you say to the average governor, $5 million, they will say, well, important, but my budget is, blah, blah. it is important to provide the context. what would you want to talk about in a 10k for government? businesses are kind of simple, optimizing prof

and here we encounter the political of data. e lack the vocabulary to end a politics around her avapro algorithmic identities. in the field of computer science we express this power. if we think politically about how algorithmic gender and algorithmic class, touches on something unknowable and changes. we can't think about algorithm gender in the same way we think about gender. we can't think about race in the same way either but we can appreciate the changes that happen when definitions are reconfigured through an algorithmic logo. >> in this way i'm talking about gender without class, i'm talking about race, the victory of identity but i want to suggest that it's something more than just the big three, the normal ways of identity. here is this idea of the algorithmic citizen. this came up for me when in 2013 the snowden documents were released and in this prism, nsa documents, there was a very fascinating little thing that said in the washington post article that said in the documents, it set anybody in the nsa can surveillance

what are the principles that we were ground in? first, only government data. to be thes have businesses' data so we used 70 sources out of 120 databases. beber two, you have to factual and unbiased. no forecast. no projections. i think that is very important. there are plenty of people who do forecast and that is where there is some since a bias that come into peoples' heads because nobody knows what it is. 10k has to be comprehensive and talk about the whole business in a reasonable and responsible way. 10k have to provide contests, historical and others. find in a things we lot of political debate is people will snatch one number out of the air and without context around at the number, it is hard to know if it is being or small. if you say to the average citizen, $5 million, that will say, whoa, huge number. if you say to the average governor, $5 million, they will say, well, important, but my budget is, blah, blah. it is important to provide the context. what would you want to talk about in a 10k for government? businesses are kind of simple, optimizing prof

this will provide greater validation of the data. congress is made up to a billion dollars available over the next decade to support funding and implementing the program. as i said publicly before, we are out of time and we are out of excuses. the good news is we figured out a very feasible solution. we have extensions with private-sector technology experts and stakeholders to ensure the solution is easy for travelers and avoids adding yet another independent stovepipe process. it utilizes existing infrastructure and can be compatible with existing airline business practices. the biggest struggle to the solution is relying too much on finding a single piece of technology that was magically going to solve the problem for us. it took a classic look at reengineering the process behind how the data system functions so we figured out a way to better position the data to make this inspection process a lot more efficient. we moved photographs in advance of the flight we moved it out of the main database that contains about a billion photogra

in the state of oklahoma" and the data comes back to you. i talked about civic education. one of the things i think is important is that there be more data collection and usage. particularly we look at state data, i think it would be great if there were some level of standardization in how people look at these things. i have been learning about the center for best practices as part of the national governors association. it sounds like a very interesting organization that receives private funding. believe me, we will dig into these things. when you look at what our visitors are interested in, you can see at the national level. at the local level i don't think we will surprise anyone, housing and homelessness is the top thing people are looking for information on, education, infrastructure, roads, bridges, etc. jobs and wages. this surprised me because i thought people would associate this issue at the national level. people were interested at the local level. family composition surprised me as well. people want to know what percentage of singl

government has those drawn attacks with the pattern set of data. that was the targets and forcibly under the of civilians have since died. data obliterated wedding party with that of your kid war breaking but it was and remains in distant lands prevent unintentional targeting of a wedding party that produces data with have permanent uncertainty of the geographic area. with the potential to be identified as if they were. some of this operation frames who we are in those terms to add that pattern analyzed so as the media scholar rates such logic like this signature strake is those back stories it is been conjured up the abandonment in favor of world the detail. even in such a of detail we are strategically fictionalized with the philosophy as is so low that world is the portrayal of the reality to find your way more easily in this role but deplorably the ada to tell the power of the stories for us so it did this story of discovery it is they said that drives the plot our species putting now more of the knowledge that it had said any and other time. in

data has failed to lift up the hard data, and the concern is the soft data may come down. es, we would be unwinding another element of the postelection environment. remember, we have already sitting -- already seen it yields come down. weakenedr has significantly. we have seen lots of unwinding of the postelection phenomenon and the question is, is the soft data the last -- the next shoe to drop? >> why do you think we have seen the majority of the reaction in the dollar? we've not seen a lot of dramatic moves in the bond market, for example. what is your understanding of that? >> we have seen some of dramatic moves if you have been looking at the differential between the u.s. and germany. it has moved in a huge way and consistent with what we've seen on the currency as people have repriced their expectations of the relative growth and relative central-bank policies. we have seen significant portfolio flows into europe. there are changes going on that underpin that. have not seen volatility because markets are confident central banks will continue to be willing and able to

that informs where we send them is there a bias in the reporting of that data if it is based on the crime data that is reported, is it all in there, no because it is reported. so is there a bias in how certain types of crimes are reported and some are underreported chronically so if you start running bees that extrapolate in propagating back, you can get to the binary outcomes, so it's about asking the questions behind the big data and realizing all these tools so if you call it an algorithm tha it doesn't becomey more inherently objective thann' sitting in a room in siliconwhev valley and so i think taking a step back and recognizing those truths behind the buzzwords. >> i'm not sure if we have a a>> microphone. if you have a question, please raise your hand and introduce yourself and please limit yourf question to the form of a question. right up here first please.you d >> you talked about education and jobs. of the leader keeps talking about bringing jobs back and mostly economic growth as we head into a financial crisis beyond imagination if we don't get the economy moving. you t

during the first part of the year, then somewhat healthier economic data the latter part of the year. and it has affected bond yields. maybe we are still in that pattern. going back to chair yellen, she is obviously concerned, she wants to see the rate of inflation moving toward 2%, but remember as she said they cannot wait until they get to 2% before they act. so they are acting in anticipation of somewhat stronger inflation data moving forward and i think that is still there plan. jonathan: at this point, they have been undershooting consistently for decades. you can look at the history of the fed and you have to go on the way back to greenspan to see the average inflation rate in around in their actual target. so yellen is failing. do they have a credibility problem? >> i think you are spot on. the goal of reaching 2% has been a loose goal. if you look back over the last few decades, there has been some time between 2004-2008 when the core pce has been consistently 2%, but barring that short amount of time we have not been able to achieve 2% on a consis

the we figured out data comparison is not always correct. we have people that change names because they got married. only by cross-checks have we been able to determine that they were duplicate voters in the system. those are other things that we have to figure out of the best way to handle to make sure that we don't have duplicates. >> i think that we would accomplish a lot if we could come to terms with why for 40 years, states and federal government have been doing all these things to try to make it easy for people involved and it has not happened. when nvra, when that passed, people did predict that it was not going to have anything to do with the turn-out. but those promoting it said, oh, no, this is once we get people on the list, they will come out and vote, they will come out and vote. well, what happened six years later? it was because of what the federal government did within nvra, people were not showing up to the polls and were being sent home because they were not on the list, and saying that we registered and then they said, we

how much do you believe the data? you watch it year after year, how much do you believe this data? est: it comes off on the back of some results that we have seen in weeks. the equipment manufacturers both released profit alerts and we are ahead of strong expectations. albeit fbiis a real, driven. we can believe these numbers and it gives us some comfort, certainly given the fact we had chinese tightening, that growth has still come back strong. a china story, is it a global growth story driven by exports? this shows chinese industrial production in retail sales stabilizing as gdp seems to stabilize. behind the big driver white we are not worried about finance now as we were as the start of the year -- at the start of the year? guest: deleveraging is a big word at the moment that some people are concerned about. that shows there has been stabilization, so it's not been incrementally credit driven although there was an issue in the economy overall. what is interesting is that the stimulus has been happening to missing late in china. ,wo of the biggest policies number one deleveraging

we have not coded the data. but coding the bills, mixed in with -- one committee tends to report a series of things at one time. mixed in with the bills reported you will see someone from the east stand up and make a motion that the floor discharge the committee from this petition or this bill and table it without a vote. -- there is a lot of instances of that. we have been puzzled about this. we talk about this in the paper. it looks like the committee is asking to have this thing discharged and formally killed. if they have the option of just -- white of a just sit on it? in other cases they reported negatively. those seem like substitute for each other. we really don't have any good sense of what is going on in this different cases. >> what other questions do we have? >> michelle? >> thanks. three really interesting papers. i had a question about the petitioning paper. how to think about the causal roles of petitions, the interplay of petitions in elite maneuvering. an example of commerce and manufacturing bei

impressed with the data, the survey data that the census collects on a variety of subjects. , ii actually think that would underscore, given that we will have sometime in between, because folks have other jobs to attend to, that we get the document that was underscored. the other thing, i had the pleasure of serving on the committee that pushed the machines out, the dollars out for the machines. it was an extensive study. they looked at, it probably hasn't changed. what has changed is, the technology has rapidly changed and probably there's a need for us to, for states to be competitive, for a new injection of cash to buy these machines or update technology. but i would think that you could get a hold of the last study and get it to us. there is some pretty interesting reading, some boring stuff in there but some pretty interesting things. we don't have to reinvent the wheel. we have a baseline where we can start from. i think this is essentially an organization orientation meeting . i know this is a little shorter. , theld suggest that we third week or near the end of august or the secon

the u.s. production data from the ui a.nding upward, but if you look at the monthly data, it is trying to go down a little bit and yet the market is focused on weekly numbers. what you think that is? mario: long-term numbers are in the future, and futures did see a selloff, especially in puts. again, as a market analyst, what i see here is on the long-term, i see the market is pricing oil higher. if you don't focus just on the short-term, you see that by the selloff. we saw a big past five weeks of flat oil production. a slumpat jump, we saw on the long-term funds. -- in: crude oil gained mike come down to the fundamental data of supply and demand, that it might come down to the weakening u.s. dollar. how much would you allocated at? declaration last week did not help much. we could see that. yen. was a rally in that will obviously bring the price of crude up a little bit, too. tracy: one more question. we have been discussing oil obviously, but it is only one part of the commodities complex and we have seen some interestin

but have refused to turn over all the data requested by theommission. on number of states have actually refused entirely to provide data to the commission. we have on our website a list of all the states and how they responded. you can check that out. it is not true that 30 states have completely complied with the commission's request. this jonathan, earlier year you run a piece about why you have concerns that vice president mike pence was leading this mission. "the problem with pence an voter fraud." what some of the issues as you see them? guest: looking at his record in indiana, there was an effort to investigate voter registration drives that were done in that state. according to the people who organized the drives, they were targeted in an unfair way and make it look as if the attempted had somehow to facilitate a legal -- illegal voting when they had flagged the irregularities for the state. that mirrors a lot of other targeted investigations we have seen an indiana and other states. more broadly, the use of voter data as a tool could b

we saw the retail sales data story and the inflation data friday as well. joining us now for perspective cranfield -- mark cranfield. what are you guys thinking about, the story surrounding the dollar? the positioning getting a bit stretched. you can understand way considering the backdrop. nevertheless, when we have been at the level before, we have seen the dollar start to turn around a little bit. has the pendulum swung too far? mark: possibly. but it could swing even further. it is not as stretched as it has been. there have been even more concerned cases than this before the dollar showed a rebound. we are getting into territory where people might be thinking it is a for now, but you can hardly blame them. janet yellen was trying to tell people, "do not worry, this inflation is something we should look past. these low numbers will not go on for much longer." here we were on friday with yet another inflation. people are getting skeptical about whether inflation is going to come back in the united date. the numbers keep pointing in the same direction, so

the inventory numbers coming as expected here's the data. missing by a tick core cpi up just 0.1 and think about these numbers being higher than the gauge that the fed looks at from 0.3% to 0.5% these numbers not getting there. retail sales defying expectations and very interesting given that consumer centiment is still pretty high. let's look at some of the details. first the cpi details. prescription drugs an outlier, up 1%. new vehicle prices down. airline fares down and gasoline station sales down big, 2.8% now we'll look at the retail details and you can see some of the deflation in the sales numbers there. sporting goods down 0.6% department stores down 0.7% and gas station sales down 1.3%. all of this combining, guys, to lower the probability of the fed rate hike. the third rate hike coming in. down to 38%. one of the lowest probabilities we've seen this contract had traded above with -- above 50% at one time and now has steadily come down given the data that's happened, the comments by yellen and the fed governor brainard. the third

okay, here's what the data suggests. that people are asymmetrical updaters in the sense that good news has a much bigger impact than bad news. if people estimate that they are a six on the scale and then some credible outsider says you are actually an eight, they say i'm a seven or eight, i've learned. if they say they're a six and a credible outsider says i'm a four, they say that's not true, i'm a six. people believe the good news, not the bad news. if this is true for many personal things with respect to the risk of having diabetes, insomnia, infertility, being vandalized, being trapped in an elevator, having a mouse or rat in your house, that sounds a little like doctor seuss, apologies for that. the information processing regularity is good news people will update more reliably with then bad news. bad news, they will say that's noise. good news they will say oh, okay. so we know there is an asymmetry and it turns out to have neurological foundations. there's an identifiable part of the brain that blocks updating with

and basically it's a project about data and about the functionality of data. ores to phases of the moon is fed into the algorithm which creates the poems. each verse is a sequence of template lines which are triggered and shaped depending on what is happening right now. whether it's how late a bus is or if a performance is scheduled at the theatre. throughout the city the team wanted to display live poems which are constantly changing. 0ur four boards can make a request to the api in the cloud. the api in turn makes a request to one of about 130 different data points. the api makes an assessment on what the data means. in terms of understanding whether or not something is busy, something is turned on, street lights on and off, that kind of thing, compiles the poem, makes sure it is formatted correctly so it is a readable powerbomb, and passes it back to the sign. the three of these go together. each of these dots you can see here is very, very delicate and turns over. what happens is then the text is rendered as a. display. they also make the best noise ever, s

without looking at the data, no one has really noticed this. in terms of the title ii regulation. there's a similar argument here, that it was justified on the grounds of monopoly power this was justified despite the fact that the title ii regulations were imposed on both fixed and mobile broadband. it was justified despite the fact that fcc's own data showed that a of 201490% of census blocks had two or more broadband providers providing a minimum of 10 megabits per second download speed and 10 megabits per second upload speed. once we have enough competition then the concerns related to net neutrality disappear which might have also suggested that they weren't there to begin with. i also want to focus on block prioritization. within the title ii regulations, which i think is the most harmful of those other than the general content conduct stand d standard. this rule was imposed despite the fact that content service providers might be creating congestion. this rule was imposed, despite the fact that content service providers might find it profitable to pay for pay prioritization

the data in the u.s.as been softer which means the fed is not viewed as threatening, and when we look at dataflow across the rest of the globe it is clear that the earlier weakness we saw around the turn of the year, there has been stabilization since then. it presents a fairly positive picture for risk appetite and i think that will be the trend over the course of the summer. briefly, we are getting some breaking from one of the larger firms on the dubai exchange. this is a contract from the abu dhabi national media comes, a company that has come under massive rusher over the last few months over concerns of a long-term rose prospects. two out of three executives in the role left in a year. if you take a look at the total return of the stock, it's down 45.3% so far this year compared to the benchmark real estate construction index. company,news for the we will break that down later what i want to get back to what we were talking about in terms of the u.s. dollar and the other majors as well. of euro stre

data tomorrow. wednesday, housing starts, job list claims on thursday, it is not the biggest week of data, especially after we saw a huge amount last week in retail sales and cpi. there's a wrap up of market action state side as inflation and retail sales are in the spotlight. >>> record closes for the dow and s&p 500 friday with each gaining the most for the week since may 26th the nasdaq saw its best week of the year prospect is dim for a rate hike. u.s. consumer prices barely ticked higher in june, retail sales fella second month both came in below expectations. labor department says the consumer price index which does not include food and energy costs increased 0.1% separate report by commerce department showed retail sales declining .2% last month s&p 500 gained 4.7% friday, the dow was up 3.9%. nasdaq gained 2.59% for the week real estate was the best performing sector, and financials lagged after several disappointing sets of bank earnings leslie picker, cnbc business news. >>> moving to european corporates, look at one or two big stories of the day, dame carolin mccaul, outgoing ceo of easy j

more so than what the u.s. data is telling us. jonathan: was on the curve -- what is on the curve?uest: perspective really matters a lot here. people talk about the yield curve flattening in the u.s. and certainly are have been historical. if you look at the last hand part of the screen in 2004, where the fed was tightening policy to slow down the economy and kill inflation. today, the yield curve has been flattening since 2011. aside from a small blip we have had from 2013, we have been in a flattening trend since 2011. i do not think the fed, which has been flatlined, the fed is not trying to tighten policy. they are trying to remove access -- access a commendation. ccomodation. jonathan: we have a change in the way the curve is flattening. last year it was a long duration, now we have a bear flat. how does that shape, do you think? guest: the front and is pending to the point where it follows where the fed will tell it and it's going to follow the data. the back end is for you to move more is on expectation. depending on where those inflation expectations though, so far we have

let's get back to the jobs data. his friday out of the united states, a fairly mixed picture that will continue to puzzle policymakers. non pharm payrolls, beating 170,000 estimate. wage growth came in below the forecasts. this could make a future rate hike more risky. >> the risk of course, is they are cementing inflation expectations below target. inflation expectations, whether you look at surveys or market-based measures, like breakeven inflation rates, they are very low. they have moved down recently and are below target. the risk is the fed, in their attempt to look at financial stability, that they cemented inflation expectations below target and that could come back to haunt them once we get the next downturn. guy: yeah, interesting maybe that the fed started to change gears a little bit on what it cares about. janet yellen delivering her semiannual monetary policy report to congress last wednesday. something to think about. donald trump's eldest son met with a russian woman who promised to provide damaging in

the u.s. but we have plenty of events and data to assess. we just had the latest manufacturing data. wednesday, we get the june fomc minutes. friday, nonfarm payroll reports. joining us now is a former u.k. economist and he is part of economists for brexit. we will get to that and a minute, but first i want to ask you about u.s. rates. we had a big move last week, a pivot by major central banks around the world, in the opinion of strategists. do you see a change in central bank thinking, and if so, work for the 10-year yield treasury end up? >> you are right to draw attention to this because it is a theme for investors. last week, the ecb central banking for him was very much interested, this could be an inflection point in terms of monetary policy going forward. bankw the european central hinting that it may well retreat from its qe program. strategists are talking about that. qe program may come to an end at the end of next year, may start to see further tapering as soon as october. we also saw an interesting u-turn from the bank of england where the governor mark carney rateslking

they were going to build the premium data center business in the world.t happened that you were able to get that business for what i now see, at least the stock says, a very good price? >> as you probably remember, i think this was five or six years ago, verizon bought taramark, one of the early cloud providers. and this was a big teleco buying a cloud company. censure link bought a cloud provider called savvis and both of them have sold those assets we acquired 29 assets that they were trying to sell at verizon and century link sold to a private equity firm. so the teleco firms are focused on 5-g and mobile. and it became less important to their core business. part of the relationship with verizon is we have a deep relationship globally with verizon. so we picked up a lot of new customers across the americas, and it was a great deal, as you said >> last question for those still trying to figure out, wait a second, jim is really enthusiastic about equinix let's take the customer burger king people might say what does burger king need with a data center >>