president who is not remotely attractive don't know how to educate the wealthier registered voters of this district are very different look at the data look at the census data they were registered voters in this district are very different from what they were when tom price but if i may let me stop you right there are let me ask you though it went from plus ten now to plus five do you think that president historically low approvals and historically high bad press cut into just nothing on this and i think she would have won by a much bigger margin if she had emphasized her commitment to the trump agenda lower taxes repealing replacing obamacare more jobs instead of harping at the fact that she grew up in the district and went to elementary school in the district frankly a majority of voters didn't care about that because they didn't grow up in the district stay right there where politicking right after the break. about your sudden passing i phone lee just learned you were yourself in taking your last term . here at the time do you as we all knew it would i tell you i'm sorry. so i write. these last words in hopes to put to rest these

the markets know it because they're looking at the economic data. the economic data is all good. he economic data we're looking at today, if this was the obama administration, we wouldn't be talking about anything but the economic data. the number of people working since the beginning of the year up 400,000. 600,000 full-time jobs, lost 200,000 part-time jobs which is good. median household income increased more in the first four months of this year than the last seve years. liz: not even a tax and health reform agenda, it's rules. >> incentivizing businesses to build and grow. liz: look at the president responding to questions about james comey at a press conference today. >> james comey confirmed a lot of what i said and some of the things he said weren't true. no collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker. >> did he ask for a pledge of loyalty from you? that's another thing he said? . >> no, he did not. >> he said those things under oath, would you be willing to speak under oath to give your version? >> 100%. liz: 100% testify under oath. understanding that's going to happen? >>

kathleen: i think the challenge for the markets is if you look at the short-term data, it says we shouldake a pause. when you look at what rates are pricing in over the next two years, it is only two and a half hikes, which is not enough for the economy. it is tough to be a bond bear. the risk with rates so low is there's a lot of downside left on the table. bob: don't listen to me. listen to -- who laid out a clear and precise passport fed tightening. when i look at maker initial conditionshows, it st the fed has raised rates three times, and financial conditions have he's quite a bit. this suggests they are falling behind. they stopped qe because financial conditions had tightened. now that they are going the other way, they are more than off. kathleen: it is not tightening, it is just less accommodative. bob: they have miles to go. if i were the fed, go every other meeting until you get to 2%. wait there. jonathan: you said the signal is they are not going to do, look at to zen 30's, but you are saying maybe they are going to fast. michael: we are still short the project. they still h

the data is out there. the data is out there. there is a lot of data out there. is a matter of knowing where to look. ling, as an example, every month, 5 million people go to casinos in the u.s.. a lot o a lot of people. if you want to know do they have money to gamble with, it is literally spending. if i go to a casino, i know i am losing money. is a cap space economy. that gives insensitivity to what .s going on -- ging 400 pin people. we cannot make decisions based on a survey with 400 people, but you can make a reality check on what millions of people are doing. it has a salad the last few months. julia: you would look at credit creation i guess and how much that is driving retail spending or consumer behavior, but i guess also sentiment driven as well. to what extent is the noise we got, the politics in the u.s., driving that can sentiment of consumer behavior as well? we keep talking about, where is the wage growth? if at some point we get stronger wage growth, does that added element? andrew: it is going at 1.7% in our population is going at 1%. you will not get a lot of weight pressure with yo

the daybreak asia. really unfortunate gdp number out of japan, looking at more data points to paint a picture before thefading in thee background, but looking at machine orders out of japan for the month of april, there could be a slump in that month. we saw last months data -- month's data, companies tapping orders by 60%. -- camping orders by 60%. not all signs are pointing to weakness. we did see the first quarter corporate profits jumping, not enough to raise. we will see what happens. betty: we will see what happens. and we have an analyst joining us. he has called on the market the fed. we all think it will hike interest rates later this week. also says he likes banking shares. we will get more on his calls and where he sees the market. we saw a huge stumble in tech last friday. haidi: we will continue to follow the market follow from that calamitous u.k. election result. we are joined by the nomura fx strategist. he sees greater volatility ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> markets are assessing the fallout from the u.k. and tech selloff, turmoil the fed coming up this week. >> theresa may embraces

we have to be cognizant of the new data. looking at world interest rate probability to see what expectations are being priced in for september change, september rate hike, and what is notable is the blue line shows how ability of no hike has jumped up to 80%, 80.3%. and the other hike has come down. 16%. it cuts has been slow, 0.6%. tom: we will go to the press conference in one minute. the former president of minneapolis fed, this man of maybehe bank, and you, this chart summarizes. if this is the new dots , and the yellow is lower, maybe it is the market catching up , below 3%, they .on't get up to 3% it is like 2019 but not really there. fedr. kaplan of the dallas really emphasized to me each of those dots is discreet. they are not a committee. these are each discrete opinions , and they are very opinionated. there is a reset here into this press conference. scarlet: everything needs to be looked at with the idea we had data, inflation -- janet yellen has approached the lectern. we would like to thank our guests. let's listen

the data they looked at is from the greater boston region, but it should hold true here in the bay area as well. the worst times to travel are today from 2:00 until 4:00, tomorrow, sunday and monday, from 11:00 a.m. until 1:00 p.m., and 3:00 until 5:00 p.m. on tuesday, the fourth of july. so, the best thing to do if you plan on being out on the roads during those peak travel times, stay safe and enjoy the ride. live in castro valley, tiffany wilson, abc7 news. >> thank you, tiffany. >>> new developments this morning regarding a sexual harassment claim filed against a former commander at the san francisco fire department. the city has now agreed to pay $375,000 to settle that claim. sf fire department analyst jessica kennedy charged that she was sexually harassed by former assistant deputy chief kenneth lombardi after she was hired four years ago. details of the alleged harassment have not been released. lombardi resigned in october. >>> happening today, planned parenthood is closing three clinics in the bay area. the locations are in richmond, vacaville, and pittsburg. the closures are

the united states of america. you're looking at a live shot of the empire state building. it is a lighter day in terms of data. we are building up to the jobs report tomorrow. let's get the business flash from sophie who is standing by. america's two biggest banks have said second-quarter trading revenue is on pace to drop at least 10%. investorsfo told and conference at market revenue was down about 15% from a year earlier. at a separate event, the bank of america ceo said the revenue fund business will be 10%-12% lower but first half results should be stronger. and selling nonperforming loans, according to two people would knowledge of the matter, the cell was in line with the netbook value of the assets and has no significant impact on the italian banks capital ratio. mitsubishi motors may have to abandon one of its best-known models as it tries to recover from a fuel economy scandal. beginning exclusively to bloomberg, the ceo said he plans to increase spending on r&d while considering whether to keep making the likes of the pajero suv. >> whether we continue with the model depends on whether there is a m

the fact that he is looking more like a hawk, in the second half of the year, he is inclined to tighten rates. made that quite contingent on big things. one is the wage datap, which looks, it is not impossible but it looks a little doubtful. and also the brexit runs smoothly and those are big contingencies that perhaps temper his move from dovish and it to hawkishness. it was a surprise. yields are higher now than they were after the election. waterk there is a lot of to go under the bridge before you actually get the majority of rate hike.ote for a a two year yield and i showed that move earlier. you want to show it over the past 10 days basically since the election. 0.2%. and what we talked about, contingencies. is the market getting ahead of itself? only slightly better than the coin toss in 2017. it is not as if the market completely changed its mind. it is more likely, not nailed on but more likely than it was it what is interesting is the reaction of the pound, much more muted than in the rates market and the pound is more impacted by politics. a lot of the uncertainty hanging over the u.k. political scene right now means the pound since the electio

the corals, especially with such events as coral bleaching. we looked at coral, measured the corals. we looked at coral recruits and we also looked at macroinvertebrates. the idea is to use this data to look at effects on different activities on coral reefs, to look at diseases, at pollution in coral reefs, most specific to protected areas, but also outside protected areas. mapping the reef, you can see the changes. we have this very long period of time where the temperature is really high and the corals cannot recover. so this has a huge impact on your marine resource on coral reefs. we have started a coral reef restoration project looking at other ways to try and restore coral reefs using the corals that are more resilient and growing these corals and putting them back on the reef. sims: snpa is one of our main key partners not only because they are the organization responsible currently for managing and enforcing marine protected areas, but they also have several monitoring programs which arintegral in providing data to us. when it comes to future protected areas, ty will bthe key people for us to discuss with how well would we manage these areas and what is the best approach.

the data accurately. is that fair? >> part of it when you looknure, the question the bureau of labor statistics asks is how many years -- they ask people with wage and salary jobs how years have you been with your current employer. as for .2 years as the overall median, higher than it used to be. the lower that was a couple years ago. for middle-aged man, it's actually declined since the 80's or 90's, which changed, women are staying in the labor force longer and especially women after having children are much more likely to stay in their jobs than was the case in the 70's or 80's or early 90's. oliver: it seems like there's a lot of different inputs here to the overall number and hard to figure out which one is contributing what. >> that's definitely true. any of these things, you dig deeper into the data and he gets more confusing. still, there does seem to be something real going on, especially since about 2000, where people who have jobs are sticking with them and that's not necessarily all positive. maybe people are sticking with their jobs

there is this credibility issue for the ecb, do they have to reflect on the better data that we're seeing from the eurozone? if you look data coming out of the eurozone in the last three months, it is very difficult to find any evidence of weakness in the eurozone. when you look at pmi, consumption data, industrial production, exports, the eurozone has clearly accelerated inond consensus expectations 2017. what does that mean in terms of quantifying that? probably means that eurozone growth in totality for 2017 will of 1.7% butonsensus close to 2%. for the first quarter we had annualized growth in germany of 2.4% and its spain, still north of 3%. i find it difficult to see anything which is going to , thate that over movement acceleration in eurozone growth. that has to be reflected in the ecb statement today. bill -- ist acrylic it a credibility issue versus downside? bob: there isn't any downside. the wordtart to use downside, no one will believe them, because there is it any. i think they have to use the word balance. i think they are concerned. in had a clear message recent months that yes, they are comfortable tha

the fact. a littleill always be bit behind because they are looking at the data coming in and adjusting their ownorecast. at some point, they will either make a mistake and that might -- mistake might be that they don't hike fast enough and some people are worried about that. some people have been worried for a decade that the federal reserve was behind the curve and the fact that they have a $4.5 trillion balance sheet means we will have runaway inflation at some point but we are seeing the opposite. the federal reserve does not need to sell treasuries or reduce their balance sheet. desta moneymand demand is not so aggressive that you're getting any kind of inflation pressure. tom: we will continue with your expert sees -- you with your expertise. there are two ideas of interest rolldynamics with how you off the balance sheet in the coming quarters and the coming year or maybe the coming decade. scarlet: i think it has to do with tightening. tom: we are learning about this. the phd's at the fed are learning this as well. scarlet: still ahead, the former economic adviser to president under a trum

this is not conclusive, but the people selling presumably have a better look at the data then we on the and to the extent that they are not holding really any stock in the company, that also makes us think that they could have more doubts about the data than the public or investors understand. julia: why now? this is your first farm a short -- pharma short. why now for you on this? >> sure. we have previously internally, we did not go public with it, we previously successfully shorted retro fan for a while -- a krelie rally -- sh thesis. we were being to a punch -- beaten to the punch on another medication by a science-based activist. biotech has been very interesting to us for a few ,ears because of the valuation and arguably, at times, it has been in a bubble. we can find something where it is not an argument about the molecule, such as a different , and we the data think that is something worthwhile discussing his activist. -- as activists. julia: to be a short seller, you said you had to have a thick skin. presidentrom this this week who says this field icky and un-american. are you

the tech bubble in 1999. just -- >> oh, thanks, mel >> these are averages. >> sad trombone. >> anyway, kensho likes tech overall. dom chu is also looking the datahield to look inside the tech sector to see which names are likely to be the leaders you're finding a lot of ex-f.a.n.g. names. not f.a.n.g., in other words >> exactly, not f.a.n.g. names by the way, melissa, i'm very glad you put up that little clarification, because like you said, averages can be skewed by one observation, sometimes but let's take a look at this overall, because over the last 20 years, technology has been the single best performing sector in the s&p 500, on average, for the second half of the year that performance is up nearly 5% for just those six months and it's a pod traz three quarters of the time in that time span for 20 years so maybe that technology gain for the first half continues now, we know it's f.a.n.g. week, but i wanted to take a look at some of these stocks like you said, outside of the f.a.n.g. world, that have been doing great and could be doing better over the next six months, if history holds true. check out some of these names. because skyworks s

the other way. >> patient have looked at the data this morning and said this is really dovish. >> we can talk as muchs we want about the taylor rule and phillips curve and all that, but this has proved that all of those are things of the past. >> we should be seeing the gradual upgrade inflation inflation that we saw for a while -- in inflation that we saw for a while and then stopped, which i think she did too. >> i think of them as being violent and a plane that are in ag to soft -- pilots plane that are trying to soft land the plane. >> joining me today from blackrock's rick rider, alongside him jeffrey rosenberg, and have local bird -- pablo goldberg. thank you for having me in your house. thank you for having us. let's begin with the federal reserve. hawkish bias from the chairman. was: i think it definitely hawkish. i think it was the best press conference from chair yellen. she was directed, committed, unwavering. there were questions that were distracting. she laid out the plan. this is our plan and we're sticking to it. quite frankly, some of the short-term data, she rightfully ignored o. sh

the consumer. burrito. they analyzed this data. the more you engage with one of their products, they look at the data and how much you increase your s. whole foods is an amazon property. are you going to be buying more online? they're looking at all of these touch points. if you use three products verses four, what is the difference on how you consume on amazon. emily: there was another big deal announcement. walmart is buying a high-end men's retailer. they initially offered through jet.com they but most jock, shoe by -- moosejaw, shoebuy, what do you make of it? >> not a coincidence. we know amazon well. these things are strategic. it would be surprising if they timed this announcement to shortcut walmart. walmart is catching up. there are a lot of brands and apparel categories where it is weak, particularly in its online category. mark of jet.com has been on a mission to fill some of these holes. emily: can walmart catch up? >> it will be tough to catch up to amazon. is there room for a number two or number three player in the u.s.? sure. that will be to offset what we likely see as a decline in traditional retail space. >> diff

here is why the buyers like it this is the sticking point. >>> we will take a short break up after that break, fresh data on the uk jobs market. i'm looking for the average earnings compared with yesterday's cpr. we'll come back on "street signs" and look at that data and see where the jobless rate in the be, if it remains around 4.6%. we'll be right back on "street signs. unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. >>> a warm welcome to "street signs. i'm steve sedgwick european stocks trading cautiously higher as i investors look for answers on whether the fed will provide details of the great unwind of its huge balance sheet. the euro slipping from session highs as ecb board members say the central bank may come under political pressure to keep monetary policy loose. >>> hexagon shares hitting a record high in stockholm after reporting the i.t. company may be sold to rivals for 20 billion u.s. dollars >>> and

mark, what does the data look like? mark: we are low today, quite a losing run for the stoxx euro 600. we saw a big selloff in technology shares in the u.s. on friday. sterling, not as big a decline as we saw on friday in the wake of the inconclusive election result on friday, which sent sterling down 2.5%. at the end of the day, sterling is down by 1.6% roughly. investors are looking ahead, mean for short-term versus long-term volatility? u.k. 10 year field has barely changed today. it fell three basis points on friday. investors weighing up what the election means, weighing up against data. we had weak consumer data today. the boe this week, wage data. and gold also falling for the first week in five last week, marginally higher. the fed expected to raise rates this week against political uncertainty. thank you, makr. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. reporter: in france, president is on course for a landslide victory after the first round of voting for the national assembly. his one-year-old republic on the

in a new filing, the ridesharing ofpany says it was unaware data theft prior to the lawsuit. bloomberg is lookingfute -- uber is looking to refute the claim. we are joined by bloomberg's legal reporter. you think uber's assertion that they did not know these files were stolen was extremely important. why? >> this was the first time they were able to say if these 14,000 files that are at the center of the lawsuit, we did not know anything about this until the complaint was filed. it is a big change in the direction of the lawsuit. a kind of reveals something of the strategy. uber being to seeing kicked around in the courtroom. the judge believes that -- stole the files. they have already been on the receiving end. you can feel it in the courtroom. the change the tide little bit. emily: david kirkpatrick is still with us. it is amazing that bloomberg is going through this. what do you make of this sideline courtroom battle? david: it is hard to believe anything that bloomberg says these days. it could very well be that they did not now this guy they hired was a dishonest thief even though they paid

very first thing on his st is the epidemic of prescription drug abuse the data is incredibly trubling, what -- the data we've been lookingt recently. we have a 400% increasein drug overdose deaths. >400% increase? >> 400% increase. 60% prescription drug abuse deaths. 500% increase in treatment admissions in this country. we have reportedly more than 2 million prescription drug abuse addicts in this countr one piece of data thas troubling is that 1 out of 20 people in the country over the age of 12 report usg prescription drugs without medical need. >> so you're talking about a lot of kid >> we're talking about kids as well. >> easy access. >> it's true. unfortunately because i's a prescription, because doctors prescribe it and pharmacies dispense it, people -- including kids -- have the sense it's not dangerous. it is incrediblydangerous. we need people to understand that. that was one of the big reasons to hve the summit. >> want to talk about we run out ofime about something that the doctor and our earlier sment talked about this o.d. kit. >> the attorney general of the united states, eric holder and president obama a

the banks, but there is huge debt. if we look at the real figures, we can move in one place. i don't even bother looking at the official datan make long-run strategic decision and say if china is going to have capital markets property -- properly, if you are prepared to put your money in as a foreign investor and take a loss for some time while china restructures, but your impressive entry means you bought a tries of's -- slice of china's growth in the future. we had a regulator, and say, let's vigorously resist privatization are attempts to reduce so easy. what do you gain by taking a loss in the cycle? nothing. haidi: i want to put up this chart. it is number 74 on your terminal. 50 day falling below the 200 day. the last time this happened, we had a 20% plunge in the benchmark. is there any point in looking at technicals or fundamentals given how wildly dream -- retail driven the market is? rishaad: it has the golden cross in the middle as well. 's retail isn't paying attention, then it isn't worth paying attention to. i don't know what china retail is looking at. if you consider fundamentals that the one year corporate

the future hold for hong kong and china? indeed, talking china, breaking news, manufacturing pmi and nonmanufacturing data from a slight move to the upside, 51.7, looking for 51. what is your instant take? >> it is a surprise. i thought sentiment is weaker. you have a cooling off for the

the ridesharing company says it was unaware of waymo data theft prior to the lawsuit. uber is lookingfute the claim. more we are joined by , bloomberg's legal reporter. you have been inside the courtroom. you think uber's assertion that they did not know these files were stolen was extremely important. why? >> this was the first time they were able to stand up and say, if these 14,000 files that are at the center of the lawsuit, we nothing about them until the complaint was filed. it was a big change in the direction of the lawsuit. it reveals something about uber's strategy, going forward. emily: does this tip the scales in favor of uber? >> know, but we are used to seeing uber being kicked around in the courtroom. because the judge believes anthony levandowski stole the files and uber is maybe responsible somehow. they have already been on the receiving end of the judge's ire. you can feel it in the courtroom, it has changed the tide a little bit. emily: david kirkpatrick is still with us. it is amazing that uber is going through this. the ceo leaving the company. what do you make o

is everyone serving long sentences there for violence, the data looked at half of all people in prison in 2003, 75%, were still in prison, 3%, and index violent crime, rape, aggravated assault, and index violent crime and lesser assault. and they are serving short term, a majority of prisons, if we don't change how we punish people, and one is on the right, and nearly as devastating to look elsewhere, the first is counting what the war on drugs is, people there for drug crimes, what about the person who killed someone in a drug deal gone bad, that is a violent crime, not a drug crime, does that go to the war on drugs? what about the person who stole from a store to fund their drug habit? that is a property crime, not a drug crime, should i count them as well? yes. so first there is a lot of evidence now, not so much the prohibition causes violence and prohibition causes drugs you go where the violence already is. this book, talking about other books, mind first and read hers. she points out, anthropological evidence showing anywhere in the world or any time in the world you take younge

dollar would rise >> certainly, but over 2016 we saw the dollar strengthening, so this has been the data that we lookt as 2016 for the whole. >> let's look at some of the other big trends we're seeing public pension funds make up a big, big part of some of the institutions that you're looking at. where are public pension funds investing? are they riding the equity rally? >> from 750 institutions that we track, 493 are public pension funds. most of those are in the u.s. and are increasing holdings in equities this is a big reason why they increase their assets a lot over 2016 as you mentioned, overall the assets rose by 1.4%. pension funds rose by 3.2% they did substantially better than sovereign funds they have the flexibility to invest in the type of assets that other public investors might be constrained to invest in >> how fickle are public pension funds when it comes to reallocating between different asset classes. last year they were heavy when it came to investments into u.s. equities we saw that rally stall somewhat i don't know if you have data for 2017 is there a sense that outflows from u.s

chart,dollar, today right at $.77, the reaction to the pmi data. have a lookthe dollar backrend, the unwind going to when donald trump was elected, back to september levels now. this has to do with the 10-to spreads, here we go, all the way down. there,e a spike right the move up and yields overnight, and very quickly, valuations why. the u.s. does look expensive. #585, asia 14.2 forward pe there, not bad. going back to one of our top stories, hong kong marking 20 years of chinese rule, and president xi jinping on his first visit to the territory since taking office. we are at the hong kong garrison where he is there to inspect troops. what has been happening today so far? yes, definitely a show of force, about 6000 pla army, navy, air force personnel based in hong kong. invisible,een mostly and out of sight kind of force, igh profilee h since the handover. beijing saying the force will be more visible in hong kong because to be blunt in the last 20 years we have not seen the troops on the streets, and for good reason as well. to engender goodwill with the peo

the data. i don't think we are at that point yet. hawkish.unded more >> we are back to looking at the fed.you can watch us online or interact with us rectory -- directly. this is bloomberg. >> munden strong. the city gets back to work and on the polls and not on terror. $1.28.nd just days away from the election. a big spread west of its wing between various polls. an unpredictable on thursday. >> it will be a very exciting three days. in the meantime, ray dalio of bridgewater is out. on the one hand he is concerned with pcs as consistently moving towards conflict rather than cooperation. here for review of where the trump administration stands are now is marty shanker. he is bloomberg's senior editor. thanks for being here. what about this moving to conflict president cooperation that ray dalio is concerned about? is that a fair summary of all we are seeing so far? >> i think it is. when you look at the withdrawal from the paris accord, there was a whole coalition of scientists, ceos and others who pointed out that since it was voluntarily -- voluntary it had no impact anyway, and it would

at the hardware and the data and looking at the threats, the commanders, the u.s. forces in korea, in addition to both members of congress on both sides of the aisle giving the highly classified briefings, and in terms of moving the radar where it needs to go, we are watching what north korea is doing so yes, we don't want to be caught by surprise, but as we begin to move we can get radar where it needs to be in order to get the systems ready to go to intercept an icbm. even if you believe what rebecca just said or the commanders who she quoted, you have to understand in the 18 tests it's failed 15% of the time. it has a 50% failure rate. why do you put the defense of the united states in those hands. : >> you are making a great argument for increasing our architecture. those of us who are evidence-based analysts, you are looking at what the system is currently able to do. we have made progress. we're not satisfied with where does that. we would like to expand inventory and capability. we need more radar. that has not been contested. we need the lrd are a

the approach to online data security and privacy must be very forward-looking. the internet continues to evolve, we must evolve with it. we recently establish an office of technology and research investigation. withologists work investigators and prosecutors in bringing cases involving newer technologies. researcherscourage to take projects and consumer protection law, including many projects that involve online issues. researchave an active agenda on security and privacy. we explored new types of harms related to identity theft and we encouraged stakeholders to conduct new research to deal with these problems. next month we are hosting a workshop with the national highway transportation safety agency, where we will discuss technology, and privacy -- and privacy security issues. the fcc is conducting an encouraging new research in the economics of privacy. notice this is the current data security and privacy research agenda. it is not carved in stone. our agenda response to changes in technology and the marketplace, including online privacy and data security. con

the data. manus: stephen gallo is very data dependent. when you lookreserve, when you look at the propensity for their ability to do more rate hikes, we started the show talking about balance sheet reduction. which do you think will be the most important thing for the market, balance sheet reduction, or a hike? stephen: i don't think the -- affirm discussion of balance sheet reduction would be a big dollar positive. our house view is that it will not start to really appear concretely until later this year, around september. what the market from our point of view is mostly going to be looking at today is the tone of yellen in the press conference, which we think will be kind of and the dots on the funds rate the next year and core inflation. anna: the function you need is. . three officials directed fewer than three hikes this year. the talk seems to be that of others shoot it down in projections published this week, we get that movement from the fed, they could have the market affecting if are going to see another move. i think from the fx market p

the top level. if you want to look at what the basic debate was that mattered in terms of the strategy and field operations and datanalytics and the mechanics of campaigning, look the campaign data. including president clinton who believed hillary should be out there persuading people who do not agree with her. the data said it was more extensive, less efficient to try to get people to disagree with her to vote for her then to get people to growth or to show up which is true. anybody will tell you that is true. typically they don't abandon persuasion efforts entirely. this campaign increasingly abandoned that. . . trying to reach out to the voters she is having trouble with ask they become alienated. you see the process particularly in the rust belt. now would -- no way to know what would happen if they had done things differently but the motif of this book there is was a big battle over the level of reliance on data versus, say, bill clinton from the field and saying these guys aren't buying our message. we need to spend more time with them and frame it this way. he'll come in and they'd say, that's quaint, you're

the data. the data does not look great. further slowing is very likely. till of the view that rates do not go up until mid-2019. jonathan: stick with us. i want to bring in jim carren. does the portfolio have any gilts in it? jim: it does. confusing.me very i think we have to introduce the brexit criteria. it is an unknown. the recent election creates more uncertainty. hasnder if maybe this vote a little to do with some of the political machinations going on behind the scenes that might be altering some of the calculus behind some of the governors to make this decision. david: to what extent does this split reflect the dilemma that the entire u.k. finds itself in? mohamed el-erian was saying he is really concerned about stagflation. jim: in one sense, you have a sterling that has gotten significantly weaker. in theory, that should give you inflation pressures down the road and that should prop them up 9-14 months out. are we in that position right now where inflation may be at a low for now and then starting to move a lot going forward? that could explain

the api data. now we have the eia data it doesn't make pretty reading look at the price of brent and light sweet crude. they've been as low as 0.6%, 0.7% lower as we've seen time and time again, watch the u.s. open, when u.s. traders get in there, see if they will pressure it crude trading at some of the lowest levels in months. this is despite the fact that opec has renewed that strategy what happened in this latest bit of data? i thought it was damming because, correct me if i'm wrong, we had memorial day that was the end of may. that's supposed to be when the driving season starts. the demand is not there at the moment that's why with the lackluster demand, the refiners, the crack spreads they make between the crude and processed product they are feeling the pinch. there are big inventories left, right and center gasoline stocks are rising crude inventories are falling less than expected very disappointing demand side and added to that, the ei is saying this shale rally, it's happening. it's happening with some force it's going to put more oil on the market in 2017 and 2018. talking of oil issues,

the data looked at have all the people admitted to prison in 2003, how many still in prison 11 years later, 75%, 3% of those admitted in 2003 were still in prison 11 years later. of the 3% three-quarters had been convicted over index on a crime, murder, manslaughter, rate, i could assault or robbery. 83% some violent crime or separate kind of less a crime like assault. long serving people are there for violence but most people who are there for violence are still serving short terms based on a majority prisoners. if we don't change and we punish people convicted of violence will not cut our prison population. there are rebuttals that come up one for the left one for the right completely valid questions are raised both are not nearly as devastated by the pills for argument is people raising often. the first is maybe i'm undercutting what the war on drugs is. i'm counting people do for drug crimes. what about the person councilmae in a drug deal gone bad? that's a not a final time, drug crime. as they go to the war on drugs? maybe. what about the person who stole from a store to fund t

the weakening data? >> i think claims have been important. you can always lookl claims and say it is still coming down. if they began to reinforce each other in the wrong direction, or if some of the survey data that everyone keeps pointing to that remains fairly strong, if that turns around, then the fed would be more worried that this kind of tightening was maybe two aggressive. you are sticking with us. we will discuss fx next route from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ joe: "what'd you miss?" stored in theff optimism following president trump selection, but what is still riding. , basically showing a bunch of lines going up after november, 10 year yields, dollar-yen, bank stocks, the 2002 thehe russell russell 3000, the copper gold ratio, some still going up, some going down. you are looking at all different asset classes, not just fx, so where do you see the postelection optimism most intact? what trends do you see strongest? >> where investors see a story they can understand and extrapolate is the equity market. until now, it has been robust because the view