the dollar's been headed in the other direction. have you noticed that? et. over the last three months dollar's down about 8% versus a basket of foreign currencies. is that a good sign for the economy here? weighing in, jordan kimmel, market strategist with national securities and my old friend ron insana thestreet.com's market movers portfolio manager and of course a cnbc contributor. ron, let me start with you. the dollar index is sitting near the lowest levels since october. is the weaker dollar actually a sign of strength for the u.s. economy? >> it certainly is a sign that fed policy's working, bob. the dollars that have been created by these numerous programs from the federal reserve, you know, are starting to circulate. and that's important. we've seen the money supply measured by m-2 grow about 8%. the broadest measure of money is up even more. but what hasn't happened yet, and the reason maybe the ballooning of the money supply hasn't gotten a lot of traction yet is the velocity or the turnover of money hasn't been all that fast. i think as the do

page 97, line 250, after the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $1,500,000. page 98, line 1, after the first and second dollar amounts, insert reduced by $56,285,000. page 100, line 8, after the dollar ament, insert, redeuced by $606,328,000. page 100, line 14, after the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $606,328,000. page 102, line 20, after the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $235 million. page 102, line 22, after the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $235 million. pa 104, line 20, after the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $100 million. page 104, line 21, after the dollar amount, insert, redeuced by $100 million. page 147, line one, 56 the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $200,000. page 147, line 24, after the first dollar amount, insert, reduced by $3,258,000. page 148, line 2, after the dollar amount, insert, reduced by $2508,000. the speaker pro tempore: the gentleman from massachusetts, do you reserve your-pound of order? mr. olver: i do not. the speaker pro tempore: the gentleman is recognized. mr. latham: i'm sorry about the delay here but -- mr.

the euro and is the dollar going to weaken against the euro. i think it's very difficult to know thee theoretically the dollar should weaken and not the least of rich which is the deficit outlook we face. it should have been weaker in recent months than it has been. so i.... >> rose: why hasn't it? theoretically it should have been weaker than it has been. >> a, the dollar is a safe haven currency in times of fare and real semi panic people move into the dollar. so it's had a safe haven halo around it. second, our current account deficit, the amount we borrow from abroad, actually is going to come down because of the this economic weakness. that's been something that's been putting downward pressure on the dollar and will put less down war pressure on the dollar. third, interest rates have come down around the world as low as ours. so usually on an overnight basis people put money into the currency which pays the highest short-term interest rates, now they're about the same in the advanced countries so there's no benefit to being out of dollar

they tend to use the dollar. indeed i only suggest to you that you go on my colleague's reading list and try to understand that the single unitive account is the one thing that happens when a gold standard happens. everybody wants gold. the world wants gold. there would be a single unit of account globally. >> just one tiny, tiny -- i promise two-sentence point. i think it's misleading to say, you know, the money is all privately produced. this is like a great private system. with the gigantic monopoly privilege of legal tender. people are going to accept this. the type of system we have now of fiat paper money being that was convertible into nothing has never in history emerged spontaneously as the result of people rationally observing the good consequences. it has always been imposed by violence and through monopoly force and through the police-prohibiting alternatives. why don't we let people, you know, other things let them use gold and silver and take the privileges off the dollar. >> i'd like to pose -- >>

hey, maybe that's why the dollar did better. with the goal of improving trade relations, here's what i want to know. do we think that the economic horsepower is there? are we going to see the world turn some better numbers? what do you think, tim? >> well, we know china' turning in better numbers, and the obama team is stressing to china, the u.s. isn't going to bail out the world. the chinese consumer, kudos to you for a stimulus plan that focuses not on experts but domestic consumption in china. >> i'm going to stop you here. >> paulson said what we need to do is turn china into a consumption economy and the u.s. into an export economy. is that really a good thing for the u.s. at this point? >> not a good thing for the u.s. economy if the u.s. consumer is saving more and deleveraging. we know that, talked about it on this show. but it's very good for investment in china and also very good for comforting. joe mentioned the chinese are in town, watch the rhetoric. well guess what? we're going to run, we're going to save more, run

the dollar has been in a down wards trend since the late '60s and only 11% decline in dollar index from an all-time record low. investors have to protect themselves in this environment over the next few years. >> paul, i want to get over to you now. of course you are the opposite on this one. peter just outlined very good reasons. there's a lot of concern that the u.s. government is not doing enough to really prop up the u.s. dollar and keep it strong. you don't think so. you think it's going to continu seeing or start to see upside? >> first of all, yes. the dollar saw, i don't want to say generational low, but major low in march '08. i think that low is going to hold many years to come. we all know the government is printing money. we have an academic problem. if that's the case and the market looks forward, why hasn't the dollar been absolutely decimated? i think it's because deflation remains a problem. we vaporize tens of trillions of dollars in credit, and the feds around the world have only replaced it -- i tell you only like it's so easy, but it's only down about $10 trillion.

but if you look chart of the dollar, it's the huge story. in the last hour and a half, it's almost down a penny. and guess what? in another hour, we're going to make the dollar the feature, because of the month of july's big activity. tune in. we'll talk more about the foreign exchange side.e. back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. see you next hour. when we do make the dollar a feature. >>> in the meantime, mixed bag of earnings, chevron out with results. the oil giant missed profit estimates. mary thompson is on earnings central for us, listening in on chevron's conference call. what are you hearing? >> here are the headlines from the call. chevron raising its production forecast by 5% or 30,000 barrels a day. 2009 should be 2.66 million barrels per day, based on a $50 price for a barrel of oil. the higher forecast comes as new projects are running on or ahead of schedule. chevron also says the cost-cutting program to eliminate $2.5 billion in costs for the year is running ahead of schedule through the first half of 2009. an

a look at the currency markets? dollar/yen, 92.71. euro/dollar is on the low 1.39. sterling/dollar, 1.6272. euro/sterling, on the day low, .8544. sterling got a big boost yesterday when the bank of england decided not to follow through with extra quantitative easing. they're waiting until august. we're not sure whether it's a pause or whether that's the final stop. nevertheless, it damaged the guild market and boosted the price or the value of sterling, christine. >>> hey, ross. not a lot of people want to take part in the equity markets given the concerns about corporate earnings and the state of the global recovery. that is keeping markets sidelined. the nikkei 225 is down flat at the moment in time. kospi finishing off 0.1%. the shanghai composite down 0.3%. the hack sang is down 0.5%. the bombay sensex is flat. it's a lack lfter picture here in asia. in terms of oil, it seems to be holding steady, right now falling below the $60 mark, 73 cents lower at $59.68, continuing its downward fall. i stand corrected. brent is now trading down 73 cents, $60.60 a barrel. sc

it's the dollar/yen two-day chart. ust in the last hour, the dollar is really getting hurt against the yen, and the mantra on the floor is maybe the carry trades back. will that have something to do with commodities at these levels? let's wait and see. bill, back to you. >> thank you. we'll check back with you next hour. >>> there's a hearing on capitol hill right now looking into where the billions in stimulus money is being spent, even as there had been some rumblings that maybe there was a second stimulus package being talked about. our chief washington correspondent john harwood is at the white house following the money. what have we learned so far this morning, john? >> reporter: bill, it's an interesting point in the economic debate. even as congress is tackling health care and energy legislation, the second stimulus debate is heating up, and all of a sudden, republicans believe for the first time in a long while they've got democrats on the run. darryl isa in the meeting this morning said he thought at the econom

on the currency markets, the dollars take down their eight-week lows against the dollar -- sorry, dollargainst the euro, 1.4283 is where we stand. sterling is 1.65 over the dollar. >> asian markets are taking a breather after so many days of strong run-ups in japan, this market breaking a nine-day losing streak to end pretty much flat. kospi continuing its 11th consecutive run up 0.1%. the shanghai market gearing up for a big ipo tomorrow. the hang seng clearly a big winner today. investors piling into property plays. and the bombay sensitive index is trading 0.6% higher. bertha? >> thank you very much. today we will get a reading on the consumer. we will get housing numbers, the case-shiller index, consumer confidence from the conference board and hear from coach ahead of the open. looking at futures, they're modestly higher. kind of mixed. we have the dow about 15 points above fair value. nasdaq futures are just barely above fair value. s&p just a bit below. looking at the ten-year note, the market bracing for a record $42 billion offering of two-year notes today. yesterday's tip aucti

the u.s. dollar is basically safe, according to china for now. russia's president medvedev also coming out on the matter saying essentially that at some point in time it's going to be an issue, but that right now, there are no alternatives that are available on the table. also in focus, top question on traders' minds, the rest of the year, earning season, kicks off on wednesday withal coya coming out with their earnings. and rio tinto is selling for $1.2 billion. we know general motors getting the nod from bankruptcy judge approved to move forward with their plan. let's get over to brian shactman for more on the tech trade. >> rebecca, thank you. we are looking at a negative open. the story is the love triangle between data do nan netapp and emc, upping the offer to $33.50. trading above that right now. interesting they think it has room to run. netapp says it has full regulatory approval to go forward with the deal. keep an eye on those two names. a lot of stuff out of baron's. amazon and amcon, they are talking about jcom and middle beast. keep

the yen and the dollar are firmer. we'll talk about that. >>> we turn our attention to the currency markets. with equities weak yet again, we continue to see a reverse trade w yen and dollar firm. the dollar is firm against everything else. hilka is with us. thank you very much indeed for joining us. are we still feeling the fects fromhe employment report on thursday? it looks like the employment trade has been put on hold. >> we have seen a mixed bit of data from last week. so i think with the equity markets down this morning, with commodities weaker than last week, i think the market tends to buy further dollar. >> where does that leave us as we go through the summer? what sort of strategies? are we still working -- are currency plans still working out what the strategy plays are are going to be? >> i think were range bound, to be honest. i think as the data cannot convince either bulls nor bears, i think we are range bound and the market is focusing on other correlations. i think interest trades and interest spreads

because they are all pegged to the dollar. what about that? why aren't you getting on the currency speculators sean and blaming oil investment community? >> the currency -- the currency market can expand without regard to the fundamentals of like energy does. and walter's right. congress does need to reregulate these marks to provide some oversight like agricultural commodities, you can't overwhelm it. >> what kind of oversight do you want? how much can we have? maybe we're talking about a regulatory strong hand when you really do not need it, given the fact that we already have an amazing it amount of financial reform coming. >> all markets require visibility and a lot of the tradinging in these markets is not visible. the over the counter market is not regulated, possibly the majority of the market. that's part of what the reregulation of these markets needs to be. you can't have a single buyer that's going to buy the majority of the market like happened with amaranth and natural gas. >> first of all, the fact that the govern

think the dollar can rally here, rick, and you were a gold trader back in the day. u know, look at what gold did today, down $15 like that on a tepid dollar move at best. gold has trouble at 950, a few times now, continues to get sold off at that level. if the dollar continues to strengthen, which i happen to believe it will. >> couple of things. first of all the chinese are in town, they don't want the value of the dollar to weaken much more while they're sitting here. >> a little experience, they're hanging out in d.c. and the dollar hanging out above 79. >> absolutely. and i agree with guy on this one, if you look at the commitment of trade report, everybody's got the trade on, everyone's short the dollar. that means commodities, specifically energy, which is what karen spoke about last night, energy is going to be weak. because the dollar does not have continued weakness, you will see the commodity sector begin to roll over. >> are we at the point where all of the commodity trades turning out to be a dollar trade in disguise? >> no, i'd say no, in fact -- >> what

the dollar index. not only as it moves down close to two cents on the month but it is hovering at the lowest levels in ten months and we are making obviously-f it's a ten-month low, new low close for the year on a friday the last day of the month as technicals significant for the dollar.. and let's look at the last chart. this is a combination of 2s and 10s. why do i bring it up? because at the end of june saw the yield curve 10s minus 2s let's call it around 2.41, 2.42. here we are roughly 2.48, also virtually unchanged. maria, back to you. have a good weekend. >> rick, you have a great weekend. thanks so much. rick santelli in chicago. hot down here, hot inside with this rally continuing. joining us to talk more about the narkt, rich peterson director of markets, credit and risk k strategies at standard & poor's. and daniel greenhouse is a market analyst with miller tabak & company. what is driving this market? we know revenue growth is not there for the quarter. right? earnings because of cost cuttin

world trade expansion, some stability of the dollar? dines hear any grow, but you tell me. >> right. no. i thk they were, asthe  repoer mentioned, i think  there was some hope lastime  they met that the ney being  pumped in would pump up the world economy. the onecountrthat's pumped a lot more than just the stimulus, obviously, is the chinese, which have made now, i believe, over $1 trillion worth of bank loans. that's really the thing that's pumping in china and will probably get them to 8% growth. but it really calls into question this whole thing about the dollar, calls into question, really, when does the far east want to stop being export-focused and be domestically growth-focused? because that's the key. otherwise, this whole discussion about the dollar being a reserve currency is their own making. and as soon as they make this transition, the rest of the world will be on board, but that's the key question, and you're not going to see too much of it addressed. >> andy, larry loves king dollar. what do you think is th

that is undermining the dollar. but it's interesting here that we didn't get perhaps more out of those talks than were going on in washington earlier this week in which perhaps the chinese might have been trying to put pressure on the u.s. to try and talk the dollar up a little bit. and i think this is what some people might have been expecting at that meeting that we didn't really get. so i think there will be a lot of trading going on between the u.s. and china on this whole currency issue. especially it's difficult especially at a time when still both sides are gauging the strength of the global economic recovery. you know, how good is the u.s.? how strong is it? does the u.s. need to continue? we're in saens putting up with a weaker dollar because, hey, it's pretty good for the u.s. exporters and that's going to be one of the things that's going to help the u.s. economy. so, you know, it's a very difficult -- a lot of trading going on here. and i think the stuff that comes out from these meetings obviously it may

and asia meant that the dollar/yen got stronger across the board. dollar/yen, 94.32. euro/dollar, 1.3902. sterling/dollar, just back over 1.61. so they're recovering earlier ground. but the yen, indeed, having an impact today. >> indeed in the japanese market. asian markets today, a really negative session. a lot of investors staying cautious. the talk of a second stimulus package from the u.s., keeping equity investors away from the markets. nikkei 225 down 2.4%, a six-week low. the kospi down .22%. the shanghai xotit down .3%. the hang shang down 0.8%. the bombay sensex continues to fall down 1.5%. a lot of questions about the speed of recovery, scott. >> yesterday was a steep slide is in the u.s., almost 2% across the board. there were concerns, as ross has been mentioning, of serious talk about a second stimulus package. we're on the brink of earnings today with alcoa after the bell. you see the futures have at least reversed from the dow perspective. but they're still ahead of fair value by 15 points. nasdaq and s&p ahead one of the top stories that's going to be

the dollar-yen is down to 92. 29. the euro-dollar fairly steady. pounds against the dollar slightly down. and the dollar-swiss franc down a little bit. >>> tony, we seem to be in this phase where the dollar and yen are stronger and vice versa. we're in the ranges though. what are we going to draw inspiration for from this week? >> not much happening this week. last week, the two hidden currencie currencies, dollar and yen and the yen performed better. there is all sorts of talk of intervention. but in times of volatility people go to the safe haven. we go to the reporting for this week to give us more direction. a lot of news starting from tomorrow. we've got cpi and the first of the major banks reporting. we've got employment stuff. all that will give us more direction. in the meantime, we stay within the ranges. we look to the end of the week to see what's out for bank of america and citi bank. >> how are you viewing those reports? >> the updates from goldman and jpmorgan have been well touted. with jpmorgan -- sorry, with citi bank and bank of a

as a result, the dollar is weaker against the euro and tpo. 1.6342 against the pound. dollar/yen is a little firmer. joining us for more, ian stanoff. ian, we're going to get into the earnings and the impact that's having on the dollar. i just want to get your view out on the unemployment data we just got out in the uk. pretty mixed. which number do you concentrate on and what do you do with sterling? >> yes. it is a bit of a mixed report. but i think it will take a little comfort from this number, given that it could have been n far worse. but i think the market does realize further down the road we are going to see further deterioration in the labor markets data. but in the time -- for the time being in this current environment, i would expect sterling to continue to remain quite well supported. so i would expect further gains over the coming days for serlg, particularly against the dollar. hi, ian. this is christine here. we have data showing foreign reserve topping 10.2 trillion. does that somehow put pressure on the chinese currency to appreciate? >> it's interesti

that would mean the economy was bankrupt the, the dollar had meaningless. how do you explain with those figures that the economy runs and is still going? >> of course the u.s. economy is a huge economy. it's the biggest in the world, and you have the reserve currency. a lot of people are almost fighting to have dollars in their central banks. so, as long as the rest of the world believes that the people who create this money, the federal reserve, believe there is trust in the dollar and you can have a trust between the dollars moving around in your economy and not get into a bankruptcy situation. when that trust falls to the ground you will have a problem and have a run on the dollar which will be diminishing value in the dollar enormously likened the pound in the 50's and 60's. >> geithner said the fed when he was a member of the new york fed didn't have any kind of the real power to do certain things that would have had averted the financial crisis and lately eliot spitzer has been saying the fed does have a lot of power but it didn't have the political wi

the tend to use the dollar. so indeed i only suggest to you then you go on my colleagues reading list and try to understand that the single unit of account is the one thing that happens when a gold standard happens. everybody wants gold. the world wants gold. [applause] >> one tiny, i promise a to sentence point. it's misleading to say the money is all privately produced. it is a great private system. yes with a gigantic privilege of legal tender so of course people are going to accept this. the type of system we have now, fiat paper money convertible into nothing has never in history emerged spontaneously as the result of people rationally observing the good consequences it has to the contrary it has always been imposed by violence and thermopylae force and the police prohibiting alternatives so why don't we let people instead of using other things let them use gold and silver and let them take the privileges of of the dollar. [applause] >> i would like to pose -- >> one of gold and silver. anyone can own it. yo

as far as the dollar, yes, the dollar is weaker today, but let's be fair. look at the year-to-date chart, it held at all the right prices, and hasn't been a huge, hey, i can peg the dollar move based on supply, but this is the last leg of all of the supply for the week. sue? >> and we will see how it turns out. despite yesterday's auction disappointment, we have a triple-digit advance, 142 points, and earnings are coming in fast and furious today. matt nesto is listening in on exxonmobil's conference call, one of the losers today. stock down a little less than 1% at this hour. matt, what are you hearing? >> yeah, sue, that call wrapped up a few minutes ago. it was interesting, it was being hosted by the head of investor relations, david rosenthal. red sox tillerson, the chairman and ceo, not taking questions. so the majority of the call was basically a re-read of the press release that was out there. so what we can tell you is that this is a company that is very aligned to the economy, and whether its good or bad, they try to, you know, maintain a steady ha

at the moment that start moving too much and the dollar goes down, they throwdown the value of their own reserves so i really don't think that china will make a sudden move out of the dollar. that would be totally self-defeating. >> what is going to happen to the dollar and how low will it go if it is going to? >> i'm not sure it will go down much more than it actually has. because if you look of the world economy basically there is one competitor and at this point in time and maybe the chinese will be of competitor but today wilmont. now, coming from europe and not so sure that people realize and what kind of situation with respect to the currency because we have one currency the 16 countries so which is the bernanke of the banking in europe has to close 16 secretaries of the treasury and a obviously were unnecessarily the voice of it mr. steinbeck of germany is worth more than a voice of the minister of finance of my own small humble country. so the guys at the ec meat are in an impossible situation and i am blame them for reacting much too late in the financ

the moment. sterling/dollar, we were over 1765 and we're bloef 1 of 64 at the moment. dollar/yen around that 94 mark, christine. >> here in asia, people are waiting for more corporate earnings before they jump back into the market. china, this particular market is tanking 5%. but bear in mind, this shanghai composite has been up about 70% for the year, so still a lot more room to go. we are watching for an ipo with this particular stock, china dade construction bank. the nikkei holding on to ground, 0.3%. this particular market bucked the nine-day winning streak yesterday. the kospi is down 0.1%. the hang seng is down 2.4%, dragging down the hang seng because of chinese stocks there and the bombay sensitive is down 1.8%. in terms of crude oil, seems to be holding steady. nymex light sweet crude, $65.80. brent is pulling back, as well. brent right now is trading at $68.64 a barrel. we are waiting for the weekly u.s. inventory report due out at 8:30 u.s. time. bertha, over to you. >> thanks, christine. i like that tapping effect to get the boards to come up more quickly.

the dollar is what 10% of its lows? >> a new low for the year. the dollar is headed lower? so what. >> only if ron paul is president do we get to declare it a bull market. otherwise, we're on the gold standard and all that other stuff -- >> one at a time, one at a time. >> gary boyer, finish your thoughts. >> the dow jones went up because profits improved, because american business is smart and cut their costs. that was in this midst of an extremely deep recession. now, off the baseline of the incredible inventory adjustment, we're likely to get positive gdp in the third and fourth quarter, the top lines go up. that is guaranteed for increased profits, not a boon but it's real. >> on the other side of the floor, we can trade to the higher end of the trading range but once these anti-growth policies coming through, what happens then? >> what happens when interest rates go up. >> congress is out for a month, very bullish. then we don't have time to read the bad legislation and time to stop them when they come back. >> all five of you think we see many of these social policies

on the dollar. third,interest rates have come down around theorld as low as ours. so usually an overnight bas people put money into t currency which pays th higst short-term interest rates, now they're out the same in the advanced countries s there's no benefit to being out of dollar from a sho-term return point of view. that's w the dollar has been stable in recent months. but the theories if you had red six nths ago or nine months ago would have hadt should get weak y >> rose: jap. ebb keeps talng about the japanese example what was tt? >> well, it's in acouple of pas. first of all, beginnin inhe mid-'80s, japan fell into what turned out to be a very long-lasting recession what they mean b the japanese example ishat theirheir recession re or less lasted a decade smup ten years, right. >> and the's aouple reasons why it did. one was unlike the ited states they had very difficult time facing up to the ndition of their banking system and taking all the losses and takinall the pain quickly. that reall

a tail wind from inflation so that some stocks will benefit as the dollar depreciates. there's a big head wind from the interest rates. >> john lekas, you're a sad, sad person in terms of the outcome of the economy. you're a very sober person -- not sad, sober. give us a specific place or two to put our money? >> the best out there is lccmx. i happen to run it. that's your best. if you don't want to do that, i would avoid equities. play them indirectly by buying convertible bonds. >> avoid equities, altogether? up 40% since march and you would avoid them, and would not avoid them because they're up 40% since march? >> that's a great reason to avoid them. that's because of the analysts underestimating them. convertible bonds are great, i like penske automotive group, as we talked about last time, they just acquired the saturn dealerships and pro logic convertibles as well. >> john browne, you want to give us a specific recommendation or two on where to put your money? >> it says hear you're buying here mays. >> a major erosion of the dollar if not a devaluation of the dol

the oil story and the dollar story. do you think the u.s. is going to be able to get more out of its relationship when it comes to oil in russia? russia and china seems to be teaming up a lot more than people expected recently. they're doing a deal in terms of oil. and certainly when president medvedev spoke to us he mentioned china very favorably a number of times. >> yeah, think theirect mplementaryties between russia and chien r. are cerinly more immediat the mont. it's difficu to convince the russians that with a fungible commity like oil they're bett f selling to the americans than anybody else. their deal with china resovld around a $25 billion loan that beijing floated to russia for pipeline construction and other investment. that's a kind of concrete synergy the russians are very interested in. it's going to be difficult to make the case that the same obtains across the pacific. >> let me ask you about the dollar here because president medvedev says a lot and he said it in our interview and i'm sure it came up again with president ob

is that going to impact the dollar today? >> difficult to see whether the consumer confidence numbers will have too much effect. i think as i was just saying to ross, i think people are start to go take a much longer term view of data and something like a quarterly gdp figure or something with a moving average which is moving in the right direction may well have a strong effect. but i think these individual spikes and troughs are developing into a lot of range trading and is we're seeing that in a lot of currency pairs. sterling/u.s. dollar is generally heading higher. but it is capped to sort of the 1.6660 level and finding it difficult to make headway above that. i'm not sure it will come on the back of a relatively minor piece of data like today's figures. >> hey, david. the imf considered the chinese yuan, the chinese currency to be substantially undervalued. do you think the chinese central bank is going to allow that to happen? >> i'm not really sure how they're looking to play this, to be fair. i think we regularly hear

the counter to that is a weak dollar is negative from the opposite, if we're seeing money come into theted states that can be a little more difficult. a strong dollar, on the other hand, that creates the opposite scenario where you're going to have outside goods coming in more. the balance between the two is a little difficult to translate into a situation like this but the best scenario now, we're in a weak dollar scenario, good for multinationals, we'll see a lot more exports, our trade deficit will narrow and that can actually be beneficial to u.s. companies if those are in your portfolio it can give you a little edge. >> have you thought about teaching? >> i have a little bit before. >> get back in there. professor of economics. the best dollar explains i've ever heard. >>> here's megan. >> thank you. we're moving as you know -- well, moving, as you know, always frustrating. if you weigh 600 pounds? how is it done? >>> if you're going to a long way on your trip with your kids you may want to look into buying satellite tv for your car. we'll explain. >>> but first, here's a look at t

brian, what kind of impact has this had had on the dollar, the u.s. dollar. >> we saw the sharp downturn of the dollar last month. since then we have recovered significantly at first and then backed off that level. not because things are great here at home, but because they perceive to be better here than they are abroad. that gives us levity in the dollar. based on the stuff that, you know, we've seen now and are hearing, we're probably going to face more dollar pressures as we move forward which is a positive thing when you look at exports. >> it's done a wonderful thing for exports and corn exports, right. >> yes. we will see some of that support on the export side of things from the weaker dollar. >> which way is the dollar going next, vince? >> it's going to fluctuate, that's for sure. on the one hand, i would say that the dollar is probably the best amongst a lot of bad currencies. at the same time, i wouldn't be surprised to see some efforts toward a competitive deevaluation where countries try to shrink the value of the currencies, including th

and the dollar has weakened. i still think the trade is to get out of the u.s., get out of cash, get out of bonds. i think bonds are a huge disaster, and i still think u.s. stocks are not going to deliver real inflation-adjusted positive returns for another five or ten years. if the stocks go up in value, there will be so much inflation that i think the rise in the price of stock will rise behind the price of other goods, and i think if you price u.s. stocks in gold, it's going to be a disaster. >> joe, if you had the best year you've had in years as a stockbroker, congratulations, too. the question i have now is you have a bare opinion of the market right now, so you've obviously done a great job managing the position. you're telling me the doom is still going to be with us. i'm with you on that. at a certain point, though, where do i stand on believing in you with the political angle you may be working on up in connecticut? >> the reason my accounts are doing well is because i'm long. i'm not short stock, i'm lo

up in the commodities. >> it's definitely related to the dollar. i don't think it's as contrived as the china story, but i believe we are on our best behavior. but i think absolutely the dollar is continuing, of course, because people are taking more risk. a gradual devaluation of the dollar is happening. we talked about this on the show last night. the guest was right, but i didn't agree with the levels. we are seeing a transfer of wealth that is happening and it will continue. right here this is risk taking. these are people going into higher yielding assets and selling dollars and buying brazil and buying indian rupels and russian rupees. >> we saw gold go higher. >> i messed oil up for you folks. when it was down four bucks, i thought it was a real tell. but what i missed gas was only down a nickel. yesterday it goes up four bucks, gas was up 13 cents. that's my bad. i should have picked up on it. i didn't. gas led this time.. >> there is a clear tell going forward here as we move towards the end of the year. here's the trade. if we are going to

on the currency markets, the yen got a little strength. dollar the/yen is down to 93.67. euro/dollar is being pulled off the highs at 1.4075. sterling/dollar is back below 1.63 at the moment. christine. >> hey, ross. here in asia, most of the markets rose with the exception of jakarta. we are watching two explosions ripping through two hotels there and that is weighing on the jakarta composite as you can see there. elsewhere, the markets seem to be bothered by earnings. the kospi is up 0.6%. the shanghai market ended up 0.2%. the hang seng is up 2.5%, clearly a big winner there on corporate earnings, as well. in terms of crude, political uncertainty is weighing on the price of crude. brent is also trading lower just a touch, 46 cents, $63.29 a barrel. scott, over to you. >> all right, good morning, christine. thanks so much. in the u.s., let's take a look at how futures are shaping up on what can be categorized as judgment day here with bank of america, citi, general electric, three behemoths reporting today. take a look at the markets here. a positive day yesterday led by

the dollar does well. usually it's a stage when indicators pick up when the numbers will be strong this friday. this should be dollar territory. this should be good for the dollar. history has been turned on its head. this has been seen as negative for the dollar. as the equity markets rally, so the dollar falls. >> david, is it because the trady in currencies is divorced from fundamentals right now and it's more about risk? >> i think you were absolutely right. it's all about this idea of we get in the morning and it's either risk on or risk off. those are the big exceptions used by traders used in the morning. they put on a trade and it goes wrong. so it's all about risk. you're absolutely right. i think last year was about liquidity squeeze. now f. it's about if you like risk, get it elsewhere. >> where does this leave the japanese yen though? >> i think it leaves it on the sideline. they're more interested in the brazils, chinas and turkeys of this world and they're leaving japan and the yen behind. i s

that means the yen is walker against the dollar. the euro-dollar over 1.42. .55 on sterling. christine? >> in asia, nice gains across the board. highest level since the lehman brothers collapse. that was ten months ago. japan and indonesia closed for public hollywoiday. kospi up 2.7%. the hang seng, a ten-month high. the bombay index rising. similar gains are seen across in the oil market as well. nymex live crude putting on gains of more than 3%. $63.50 a barrel. brent is trading at $66.33 barrel, up 95 cents. bertha, over to you. >> thanks, christine. joining us for market strategy is richard cookson, global head of asset allocation at hsbc. still with us this hour is our guest host, emily sanders. she's the ceo of sanders financial management. she's joining us in london. richard, good morning to you. we'd like to start with you. you know, 40 years ago today, we put a couple of guys on the mon. what's it going to take to launch the markets out of their trading range? >> trading volumes are thin, even by the standards of summer months. it's been so damnably h

if we do see the dollar weaken against the euro, pound, yen, the second half that could be a nice tailwindfor corporate america's earnings at a time when investors are expecting a big boost in profits. a weak dollar could help us get a strong -- >> perhaps. but what about the idea that the international economies are perhaps weaker than the u.s.? >> well, the great thing about the dollar trade is you don't't have to sell more product. so if the economies in europe and canada-f they remain weak in the second half and bite same weak amount of gooz they're falling now if the dollar falls against those currencies you still have more earnings for the same amount of sales. that's the beauty. >> and daniel, do you believe as nouriel roubini was saying today that emerging markets are going to perform better than more established ones like the u.s.? >> eventually, they absolutely are. but right at beginning i think they're going to have -- i just heard the most profitable 13-word sequence in the english language over the last couple of months. it is first the fed's lowering rates and it isn't worki

sterling has rallied back to over 1.6520 against the dollar. ll, by strongly expected retail sales 20 minutes ago. for more, we're joined by adam bobroth. adam, the mpc came out yesterday and the minutes weren't quite as pessimistic as people thought they were going to be. retail sales were stronger than expected. . how much more can sterling benefit? >> i think pretty limited. there's retail figures if you look into them. discount, of course, causing people to hit the higher rates. in terms of the bank of england side of thing, again, as you said, qe, no further announcements on that. now we're looking forward to the next meeting where really they should be looking at that extra bit of qe needed. >> why would you cap the upside of sterling against the dollar? and euro/sterling doesn't seem to be moving anywhere at all. >> yeah. euro/sterling, very range bound at the moment and cable is also range bound, looking at the top end at 65.5 marker. and that's going to be the range for the short to medium term. >> adam, as far as the dollar is creating

in the dollar. and they would like to have some sort of alternative. but i really don't think that's going to happen for a long time. i think the dollar will remain the currency of choice, at least for the foreseeable future. >> because they own so much of our debt, wouldn't that undermine sort of their own investments? >> yes, they'd be hurting themselves if they took a dramatic shift away from the dollar. this is something that could happen gradually over time but i wouldn't expect anything soon. >> brian, thank you. >> it's been a pleasure. >>> by the way, for more on the g-8 and the issues at this summit, you can read a commentary by "worldfocus" blogger nina hachigian at worldfocus.org/pivotalpower. >>> the top communist leaders of china said today that maintaining order in western xinjiang province is the top priority. after days of ethnic rioting that left more than 150 people dead. to underscore the point, thousands of chinese troops marched through the provincial capital today in a show of

the dollar index, bob mentioned the bounce in the dollar across the board in the commodity complex, and it had an effect across the board, in the metals arena as well with a lot of loans liquidating their positions in the gold market in particular. natural gas, another interesting story there, we're going to have that storage report on natural gas supplies tomorrow, but we just got word that the u.s. natural gas fund, the natural gas etf is now reducing its natural gas positions on ice, on the intercontinental exchange. so as those hearings continue in washington with the cftc on position limits, we're hearing right now that the ung, natural gas etf is going to reduce its positions in natural gas futures on ice. back to you. >> sharon epperson, thanks so much. taking a look at today's business headlines, the latest federal reserve beige book report shows signs of stabilization in some regions of the country. four areas, new york, cleveland, kansas city, and san francisco are seeing some stability, while chicago and st. louis are reporting the economic pace of contraction is moderating.

back to the economic concerns, trish, back to the questions of the dollar, the dollar at two-week highs, as well as far as its index is concerned. but those stocks, alcoa, the first in earnings season comes out wednesday. but across the board, they are all weaker today and that is in part because the underlying commodities are weaker and the question is, do you believe in the economic story that there are real green shoots out there? >> that's the question. are there any bright spots? >> with commodities down, some of the consumer staples names are going to benefit as far as their margins are concerned from commodities being weaker and you also see those benefits from this idea that perhaps this is the place where you put your money in the stock market at a time where things are uncertain. >> rebecca jarvis, thanks so much. we appreciate it. >>> and we're going to head right back over to larry. >> thanks, trish. >>> we're awaiting president obama's press conference with russian president medvedev. on the agenda, reducing nuclear stockpiles and improving trade relations. cnbc chief washi

the dollar index and the dollar versus the euro falling to the lowest levels we've seen since june. watch that new homes sale data, perhaps we will get another indication of where the dollar is going from there. the weakness in the dollar and commodities across the board. copper a real standout to look at there. there's a belief with the strength that we've seen in equities, particularly in asia demand is coming back, demand will be strong in china forco copper. you are anyonewoinwood cliffs. >> at 11:00 eastern we're going to have an announcement of how many one-month bills we're going to auction tomorrow. $63 billion will be auctioned at 11:30 and 1:00, 20-year $6 billion tips. protected securities not long ago. just to be kind of oddball. they didn't have great liqu liquidity. not a lot of depth. you can tell why everybody is talking about the dollar index. we are one thin dime away from trading dollar index levels you haven't seen all year. and interest rates, hey, over 3 3/4 on the ten-year. so we want to continue to watch how supplier, debt, weak dollar strong commodities affe

dollars an saudi arabia in the middle east and how insane it is. with cap and trade, what we're doing with them with our dollar and oil and what they dollar and oil and what they do that dollar that we give@@@ the next generation of brink's home security. call now. glenn: back with "wall street journal" senior economic writer stephen moore. steve. you're a reasonable guy. you're a smart guy. you're a cautious guy. if i hear one more person say, oh, this talk about one world currency is crazy, it's not going to happen and our dollar is fine, if i hear one more person say that to me, i think i'm going to go nuts. we're hearing it from everybody. talk to me a little bit about china and japan and brazil. what are they doing right now? >> well, here's what's going on, glenn. it is actually a very simple economic picture to describe. we're not producing much in america, because we have such high tax and regulation, made worse by the way by cap and trade, so we're importing all these goods and services from abroad, from china and japan and so on, so we'r