why is bad news for the economy so often good news on wall dollar downer why the stronger dollar spells pain for some smaller companies with made in . and strained relationship the growing backlash big business faces from some of its biggest defenders. all of that and more on "nightly business report" today, monday april 6th. >>> good evening, everyone. sue is off tonight. wall street returned from the holiday weekend and seemed to be in a buying mood. investors shrugged off friday's weak jobs report and gave the dow a triple-digit gain. the hope is the poor showing on the jobs front would be the reason for the federal reserve to delay raising interest rates until later in the year. sentiment also improved when a reading on the services sector came in in line with estimates, and still showed growth. and then new york fed president bill dudley said chill, when the fed does raise rates, he said it won't be that bad. >> the likely task of short-term interest rates after liftoff is as important as the timing of liftoff. i anticipate the path will be relatively shallow. the headwinds in the

it's just the dollar's up 46% and the euro's up 12%, the dollar's up against the euro. >> well in thest on reserves, how would you deal with that moving forward? >> phase it out, as long as the fed pays interest on reserves they lose all control of the nominal gdp and therefore lose all ability to do their basic job. get rid of it. >> excellent. lewis, i like your nice, short, easy to understand answers. it's a pleasure. thank you again. carl, back to you. >> rick santelli thanks so much. >>> a new episode of cnbc's "secret lives of the superrich," robert frank here to tell yus about major vip hotel guests. >> they're picked. by chauffeur, brought to the vip suites treated to spa services and given pedicures, we should say pawdicures they're all dogs. >> hollywood and new york luxury hotels send chauffeured super cars to pick up guests. we can only tell you first names, in the yellow lamborghini, baxster. inside the bentley gt lyle la. new york city, holding in a low key mercedes suv, dane. the superrich passengers aren't ceos or hollywood superstars. they are pampered pooches. on the

>> the dollar it's been one of the biggest moves we've seen in the dollar in decades. the top six if you look at the dollar index since the '80s. i'm wondering if there's a level in the dollar you think will ult patly trigger some kind of backlash in washington? if the dollar were to go up to, say, 1.10 or 1.15 on the dollar index, we'd see a material slowdown in industries that have exposure to trade. it's starting to filter through some of the negotiations. the tpp is becoming a little bit more questionable and a number of other trade negotiationing ings starting to get strained. i'd imagine there's a political ramification of that quick of a dollar rise. in that sense, maybe we have a dollar pause for a little while, and anyone we get something further down the road to kind of go down that -- >> how high is too high, mohamed, for the dollar index? >> david is absolutelyfact the dollar is the only currency willing and able to appreciate. everything else is worried about the currencies being too strong. what's interesting is we haven't triggered yet talk in washington

i mentioned the dollar. dn't say what they were going to do, but they didn't have that feeling that june is off the board in terms of a rate hike. that seems to be the consensus from the marketplace -- september is much more likely. look through the gdp numbers, through the weakness. the only thing that gave the dollar a better pick up was inflation getting back to 2%. that is optimism for you. but we have really seen april down for 3%. that is a nine-month rally finished. finished temporarily, or will it regain? that is what we want to know. yields in the u.s. treasury rose to 2.08%. what is happening? yields are higher, the dollar is lower. a little bit of a conundrum for the affects players. you would think that the dollar would left, but there was a bit of a backlash against that. kiwi another central bank another job owning day -- jawb oning day. down 1% at one juncture. rates remain unchanged, but the reserve bank of new zealand governor says that the currency is unjustifiably high, that the appreciatio

another fresh three week high for the u.s. dollar and the euro is down against the u.s. dollar. we're off by a third of 1%. this year the euro-dollar pair has fallen by 2.5%. at the start of the week we did see trading so that has played a major part here. in terms of cable, pound against the u.s. dollar down by 0.2% but what we did see yesterday was the spike in volatility and that has got to do with the he election in about 27 days. dollar-yen lower by 0.2%. oil prices once again under pressure. wti by 1.2%. brent crude off by .3%. brent and wti are on track for a 3% rise. it's hard to believe given every day we seem to be he seeing those declines and let's talk a little bit more about am. >> indeed. it's a big day. the apple watch is finally here. customers have been lining up to get a first glimpse of the new product. it's available to preorder today and potential customers can tryon the device at selected apple stores and some high end department shops around the world. the smart watch will only be available for actual purchase on the 24th of april. seema is in london. seema

the aussie dollar, the kiwi dollar. another interesting move. t's have a look at the aussie dollar. that is not coming up. you are heading back towards parity on that. we will get back to the conversation. he says it is time to sell volatility in the over months. the new york fed governor saying get ready for a shallow liftoff in rates. dennis at atlanta says he is not ready to conclude the slowdown is underway. he says there is a possibility for a rate hike in july. any weakness in dollar that you see is an opportunity to consider getting back in. this is over the past 30 days. that will be the view from the most accurate forecaster on foreign exchange. any weakness you have seen is your opportunity to reenter a long position. that would probably translate more so on the euro-dollar. there is very much similar opinion which is you continue to see dollar strength, euro weakness. that will morph itself into a parity level by the middle of the year, according to ing. that will probably break parity down to $.95 by the end of the year. let's check i

which is the dollar. in the 1980's, the dollar rose by over 50%. in the 1990's it rose by 34%. in your report the dollar is only just beginning to -- up 18% since 2011. so is that the big momentum, that comes through for markets? >> i think we have a view of course that the dollar will continue to be -- to strengthen over the course of this year. but once the fed starts to raise rates, then, you know, a lot of this dollar strength will have been already factored in. and then what people will start focusing on is that the pace of tightening and the actual final point of tightening would be much lower. so we don't expect the final funds rate to be at 2%. which is much lower historically than we've had in previous tightening cycles. and once that happens, then people will maybe move away from this tightening scenario and look at other currencies. right now the dollar is going to be the dominant currency. but maybe as we progress over the course of the year and into next year, then this dollar strength story begins to dissipate a little bit. but in the meantime it's great for emerg

i don't have the dollars mount. we can get that to you. >> i want to ask a question, what is the highest amount of money that you have given out in terms of a grant >> a single grant? that would be the the san francisco opera. it is over 700 thousand >> 700 thousand and then the smallest amount is >> 5 thousand rkss and 5 thousand. i think that is quhie i'm bringing this up is because i'm talking about dollars here more so than just because even from a 5 thousand dollar grant say they turn in paperwork late there is a penalty of maybe 10 percent of that and that is a big deal to a smaller institution. probably not such a big deal to a larger institution where they have development team squz people that manage and track the money in a way that provide them the vehicle to maintain the grants versus a smaller institution who have-they don't have dwument teams to help manage this is my point >> your point is all taken and our practice around the penalties and something we can reexamine >> thank you. >> so, we have commit

talk about the dollar's impact on metals. ou're watching three barometer as a matter of fact on the health of the overall economy which we're all trying to figure out what's going on. >> look at -- let's take gold. gold has been -- it's been lack luster recently and one of the key reasons is that the macro data coming out of the u.s. has been modestly disappointing. one of the key factors driving that really has been the weather. when we look at more of the survey type data and forward looking data and i think particularly u.s. confidence, it shows that when we look out into the second half of next year, things are going to look better. when we think about gold prices we see them trading sideways over the course of the next several months, further out once which start to see the strength of the u.s. economy driven by consumer spending we have strong disposable income growth up over 5% and the tailwind created by what's going on with oil prices. once that starts to create evidence of a stronger macro environment we see gold pri

for the u.s. dollar with the manager director and strategist joining us from toronto. thank you for joining us bright and early. now if we take a look at cftc positioning in the dollar that seems to be coming down from the extreme levels we saw at the end of november and december. would that automatically mean we're seeing further weakening in the dollar? >> well certainly nothing in this market is automatic but what i think the cftc data means is we haven't been at a new high since last november and since then it's trickled lower. we have seen this overall general narrowing in terms of the u.s. dollar long positions and we have two currencies now held net long and they're short position against new zealand and swiss and what that data is telling us is there's a small shift in sentiment and it's highly reflective of the market. for the u.s. dollar it's much more of a range trade than at the beginning of the year when everything lined up for a strong, strong u.s. dollar. that's faded and now it's this env

the hong kong dollar is pegged to the u.s. dollar. meaning it will move with the u.s. dollar. w that a couple different times. this is the u.s. dplollar versu the hong kong dollar. strengthen the hong kong dollar, this line is moving down. that's the big recent run in the dollar that we've had. that has actually pushed the hong dong dollar stronger as well. so what does that mean for hong kong stocks and everybody else? here's this peg level. about 775. they will not let it go above that level. however, if there's enough pressure which the preconditions are there to have that pressure, you have the fed normalizing rates which is putting pressure on the dollar which is going to put pressure up on the hong kong dollar. and not only that, to buy all these hong kong stocks, what do you need? hong kong dollars. there's a lot of investment flows going in them. this is the type of thing where the pressure builds up. remember what happened to the swiss national bank. it just broke. some people bet you can have this break. how do you trade it? really the easiest way for a retail investo

>> i think fisher understands the dollar better than anyone. we didn't get it so we're going to be on hold. >> fisher has been the guy sayingsay saying by year end. >> i think he realizes if the dollar spikes further you're going to get more companies having to do what ibm did. they're up a lot but i use that as an example of constant currency, they looked okay. if you use the actual dollar amount it looks like the business is going away. i don't want business of america to go away which is what's going to happen. the dollar is too strong. >> well it may stay there, although you believe perhaps it's not going to go that much higher. >> if the feds say listen like we're thinking about june september, about the fall i mean i think they should say listen, i'm not thinking until the super bowl. this is in san francisco. that's just reference to being able to say we're in san francisco. >> yeah, i turned around and realized. >> by the way, he got the no coat memo but the no tie. >> i couldn't be bothered. too much going on this morning. >> this is on

keep an eye on the dollar index. s not so much that the fed will do anything but it will affect the language in the intonation that comes through from the fed. it is coming down by 7/10 of 1% consumer confidence numbers weaker. april is a pretty terrible time for the dollar. a rough april for almost five years. gdp data is expected at 1% and analysts say 96.13, virtually flat. if you look at the month -- last month -- you can see it is down 1.19%. mark. mark: the top stories on bloomberg this hour -- saudi arabia's king named his nephew to be the first in line to his throne, and his son will take over the role of deputy crown prince. hethe longest-serving foreign minister will also be replaced by the current ambassador to the united states. this comes at a critical time when the world's biggest oil producer is dealing with falling oil prices and the bombing campaign in yemen. samsung expects earnings to recover in the second quarter as the s6 lewis back smartphone users. samsung predicted the revival of a 40% drop in

and 3m joins the chorus of companies blaming a stronger dollar when it missed earning estimates. 3m makes post its and coatings and ceramics lowered the forecast and sales dropped by more than 8%. p&g does two-thirds of the business outside of north america. cfo john foaler said it can change the product mix locally and work on efficienty. >> the good news these are things we should do in the normal course of business and we sharpen the focus and keep everything going. it is part of everybody's job. markets like russia the ukraine, argentina are selective where we are ting growth. and china are others are better off and that is where they are hoping to find growth. >> now to another global brand which late today issued a earnings beat. we're talking about microsoft. they reported a profit of 61 cents a share, ten cents better than estimates and revenue came in at $22 billion as sales of the hardware and cloud computing products offset a decline in the windows business. and investors liked what they saw with shares riding after that -- rising after that report. josh lipton has more on

it has dropped 11% against the u.s. dollarrst three months of the year as the east beeper appears to increase the newest. u.s. regulators are doing will allen over claims he helped to run a ponzi scheme. the sec is saying allen and his partner used it to fill a $7 million shortfall to sell to investors. angela ahrens instructing employees to the website to purchase the new smart watch which can be pre-ordered on friday. the u.s. earnings season is taking shape. if your money is in an energy company, you may want to prepare with pepto-bismol. that is according to gina martin adams. she adds that other sectors are expected to fare better. she adds by the second half only energy sectors are acted to read the -- to be in the doldrums. joining me is rick rieder. coming up we will feel of strains on the u.s. economy in the back half. what do you think? >> i think that is right. we will go back over the past five years. the second has spent 2.8%. the second and third quarter 280. we think it will see -- we will see this again this ye

page 22 line 20, after the dollar amount insert reduced by $355 million. exarmente the gentlelady from florida and a member opposed each will control five minutes. the chair recognizes the gentleman from florida. ms. castor: my amendment increases the energy efficiency and renewable account by $266 million. to simply restore it to last year's level with an offset from the fossil energy account. my amendment will boost energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives across america that have a proven return on investment for taxpayers. and this amendment is paid for by reducing, but not eliminating accounts that do not have the same return on investments for taxpayers. unless we adopt this amendment, america's commitment to energy efficiency will be slashed by $266 million below the 2015 enacted level and over $1 billion below the budget request. now, mr. chairman, i wish we could meet the budget request this year, but that doesn't appear possible, but we should at least restore money back to last year's level, which is still a modest investment in energy

the dollar is continuing to lose value. he euro very close to session highs around 109. it was trading at 110 half an hour ago. let's get more on the story with tony he request ityequity strategist. before we talk about the fed we have to understand what's happening in the currency market. the dollar weakening against a basket of currencies. does that tell us investors are fearful of what the gdp report will tell us? >> i think so. clearly there's a lot of weak economic data. the downward revision and all the capital spending numbers. as a matter of fact if you look at the citigroup economic surprise index it's gone straight down over the course of the last few months and again it's because of the port strikes. it's because of the weather. we're going to have to figure this out over the next month and whether you see a rebound. so the currency market is reflecting a possibility that maybe it wasn't just bad weather. maybe there is something more sustainable and i don't think that. our view isn't that that's the case. that we

we've seen the drop in dollar rouble. rouble strengthening which is very important and we start to see inflation impulses. so i would start to get a little bit more optimistic on the growth outlook but again we need peace in eastern ukraine to sustain and keep that. >> i was going to say, another big head wind or on going risk for investors when looking at russia is the ceasefire deal was reached in february between ukraine forces and pro-russian separatists but that deal remains fragile and the relationships remain fragile. >> absolutely. it is fragile. it's a shame there's no international peace keeping force in place. some form of force in order to keep both sides apart. without that peace keeping force in place you're bound to have fighting continue in different areas. so let's see what happens on that front but definitely all sides see this is a lose lose situation if this were to escalate again and definitely if we'd see an escalation in eastern ukraine i wouldn't be surprised to see u.s. u.k. sanctions against russi

the dollar is soaring. gold prices are falling 50%, and last year the worst performing currency, if you can call it a currency, was it coin, that lost two thirds of its value. we live in a world when there is a lack of capacity. too much supply, not enough demand. labor market, high unemployment. lots of oil, energy commodities. we have these inflationary and deflationary demands in the world. erik: what will it take for the demand to revive? nouriel: i would say many things are required. first, structural reforms that increase potential growth. recently, i said between the age of population lower productivity growth, potential growth is falling. we need more aggregate demand. we need them right combination of monetary and fiscal policies. i think we emphasize too much the use of monetary policy, not enough of fiscal policy. with interest rates so low a mother are in for structure problem -- projects in the u.s., europe japan, in emerging markets, that would be highly productive. we have to produce aggregate

is weakening the euro, vis-a-vis the dollar, i'm in the camp the dollar really mattels for u.s. t. from that perspective it's actually hurting things so it's a double-edged sword if you l i hate to be the economist saying on one hand and the other hand but it is double-edge side. erik: great conversation, carl, thank you very much. chief economist here bloom intelligence. lisa and as a matter of fact, i wanted to tell everybody before we finished about retail sales. there's a big report coming out tomorrow. we are so focused on what's happening in the economy. retail sales for march. gina martin adams of wells fargo, great conversation. thank you very much. up next on "street smart," it's also a big bang -- big week for bank earners. j.p. and wells fargo kicking things off. how much of an impact will they have on the bottom line? erik: good afternoon. once again you're watching "street smart" on bloomberg television. here are some of the top stories we are watching after the closing bell. pimco is cutting way back. the government fund cut debt from 22% down to 35% in february. am

the u.s. dollarsentative the largest percentage of the six deal -- $6 trillion total of the reserve. that is the most since 2008. the year to date, the euro has fallen against all but two of its 16 major trading peers -- the brazilian and danish currencies. the best-performing currency is the swiss franc. the swiss national bank took the market by surprise and ended the euro franc cap. the eurozone features manufacturing numbers from several countries. in the u.s., watch out for manufacturing data and payrolls numbers from adp. there it is -- the euro down by 10.9%, worst first quarter on record. caroline: let's check in on the top stories this hour. google has unveiled two new chrome books reigniting the market for low-priced computers. the laptops that were available for preorder for $149 will feature all day battery life. google is promoting low and laptops as it looks to draw people into its chrome operating system. the germanwings copilot believed to have deliberately crashed the plane in the fr

all impact will be on the u.s. dollar. ast and time warner meeting with department of justice representatives on wednesday to keep their merger alive. >>> and target's website overwhelmed after offering a designer's line. >>> and the b.p. oil spill, five years on. >>> and if you are just tuning in thank so much for joining us here on "worldwide exchange." take a look at futures. of course, we did see a big sell-off on friday. the dow fell more than 300 points from its high on friday but get ready for earnings bonanza, more than a fifth this week: . remember technology generates more revenue overseas than any other sector when we talk about the dollar and erpgs, this is a sector you want to watch. right now, when looking at futures, the nasdaq the tech heavy index indicating a higher open by 25 points dow jones industrial opening up 125 points. last week european stocks fell about 4% due to greek default fears. at this point, it seems like investors are putting the greek concerns to the side focusing on equity movement right

the dollar store it is a big part of the ibm story.evenue has follow the year on year for the past 12 quarts consecutively. this time they are blaming ford currency at exchange and the strong dollar. saint out of the 12% decline, the dollar alone is responsible for a percent. -- saying out of the 12% decline the dollar alone is responsible for a percentage. there are delivered at a slightly better profit than last year. the sales are basically flat. the jury is still out on ibm. all of the other companies we have this week. jonathan: ryan chilcote, thank you. lucy macdonald is still with us. lucy, a big week for u.s. earnings in this week. is it we find that the damage that the strong dollar? lucy macdonald: really beating expectations by now, the steward of the dollar. you can be ensured it is in there. the other thing will be looking at is also deflation. companies moving more toward the cloud what is happening to their prices. and the fed is looking to see how upfront investment is affected in the profits. if they take a lot through

this is, of course, the taiwanese dollar up. a look at the longer-term chart, because it is quite spectacular. what you're seeing is a huge flow of money in taiwan, the biggest inflows since 2007. that is the one week chart. these are the biggest inflows since 2007. korean stocks are up. a move in the taiwan dollar, also a move in the korean won and again bounding along. stocks are up for the 15th straight day, so there is a big movement in both of those currencies. back to you. mark: the china central bank is considering unconventional policy including direct purchases of local government bonds, according to a market news report. the japanese prime minister shinzo abe is in the united states today. he will be discussing investment and trade when he meets president obama. he is also set to unveil new details of a defense agreement and that they are willing to play a bigger role in asia. and expected to report that earnings are up by 20% when posting results for the second fiscal quarter today come with strong sales in china expe

we're seeing the dollar some what lower although the euro dollar has fallen off it's highs. rrently changing hands at 10728. still weighed down by the greek uncertainty but safe haven flows into the yen and that's pushing the yen higher against the u.s. dollar. the aussie dollar is benefitting from the fact that the chinese pmis were better but we're seeing that turn around as well. let's have a look at oil prices as we still don't have a deal between iran and six world powers. wti crude off by 1.16%. brent crude off by .54%. in the asian trading session the shanghai puckbucking the trend. it's worst than expected data points in the form of the mixed pmi we got and that bolsters more coming from it. down by .029%. >> go daddy go. they priced the ipo at $20 a share above it's indicated range. at that price it would raise $460 million and value the company at around $4.5 billion. this is a big mover. julia takes a look at how go daddy has become ripe for listing. >> transformed from a company that just registers domain names to a web services company for small and media size bu

the singapore dollar interestingly rose against the u.s. dollar as the monetary authority in singapore kept its policy steady yesterday. it also added gdp was on tract to go 2 to 4% this year. >> and looking at bond markets, yields also seem to be effected by the retail sales data. what can you tell us there. >> all the way from the two-year note to the ten-year note bond news slipped on retail sales. and that also saw the differential for bonds tighten a bit in the euro zone. u.s. bonds came a little closer to your zone 10-year bonds. >> and earns season in the u.s. is coming into the full swing. how will that effect the markets here? >> a lot of corporate news coming out. intel shares higher even though it sees growth as flat for this year. but provided a positive outlook actually for it gains in the data sector of its business. so we'll watch out for other related sectors which dominate in that sector of the business. so we might see some focus there as well. also china gdp, we're going to be covering that in depth this morning. but i'll

the dollar is rallying today. it continues. ie deangelis at the nymex with the futures now crew. jackie? >> good afternoon to you. that's right five straight days of gains for the dollar. the dollar index over 99. scott nations, do you think that new highs are ahead for the dollar? when are we going to see 100? >> that's a great question. we're almost there as you mentioned the dollar index, we're almost below 106 in the euro currency and the dollar index the interesting thing it bounced really hard off the 50-day moving average and the chart shows higher highs and higher lows. looks like we're going to get above 100 and the target the recent high of 100.78.5. >> brian we're going to get a lot of earnings next week and the question is how the dollar is impacting companies. how do you think companies are managing this and what do you think we're going to hear? >> well, i think ge actually gave a little insight an how companies should be managing it going forward. ge clearly saying hey the dollar strength is hurting our balance ch

the canada. canadian dollar ripped and then reversed. you saw that in the euro, in australian dollar. take note of that. maybe we'll get strong there are again but something to keep on your screen. >> we give the fed way too much credit. they might control the front end of the curve but completely lost control of everything else. my opinion. if the economy was as strong as the market suggests rates should be higher than they are and they are not. so we juxtapose one another. >> take a look at tim's final trade on wednesday. >> hong kong and chinese stocks have been on fire. i think this trade continues on fxi. >> our next guest think china equities has room to run. let's bring in jpmorgan's strategist. great to see you here in new york. in terms of equities do you think the economy is still rocky but that the equity market can still go higher. why is that? >> the economy is very poor and i think the analogy you should use is japan 25 years ago. remember that the equity markets have been doing very badly for a protracted period of time. you got that situation where you had the adjustmen

to the u.s. dollardrag on the economy, he is saying that there is nearly a 50% inflation of the exchange value of the dollar in 2014, that is a significant shock. dudley added that this would reduce gdp growth by about 6/10 of 1% this year, and this is echoing a lot of what economist are same. lisa? lisa: they looked at high-yield companies in particular and they actually have less exposure to the dollar, and they, too had some of their profits reduced, like 2% reduction in year-over-year in the first quarter of profits. this is at a point when overall it economy is not that strong and it can create a big dent, and that saying -- that being said, it can be making companies find themselves -- it can make companies find themselves in a better position. carl: you are now below trend, you are now growing at these speeds that are going to be sufficient to generate the inflation pressure that the feds are looking for. in short, president dudley is saying it watching financial conditions. if something else sta

you have the u.s. dollar against the russian rouble and the euro dollar right around 106. by .6% now. commodities, we have been seeing the price of oil stabilizing as of late. but over here you have wti crude pulling up a bit. you have brent off by .4% now. spot gold we're seeing slight gains around 1195. and spot silver higher by .6% seema. >> let's get everyone a run down of what to watch this trading day. it's another huge day for earnings. dow components travellers united tech and verizon before the opening bell. also baker hughes fifth third, harley davidson lockheed under armour. and yahoo! and chipotle. another big day for earnings. >> it's only like ten meters. but i know and we have heels and things alligator around the floor. >> it's a good workout. >> a great workout. you kind of have to walk around. listen dave einhorn is saying stocks are too high if earnings have peaked. in a letter to investors the head of the hedge fund green light capitolal says he's adding more shorts. it fell by 7% in the first quarter. einhorn notes that the impact of falling oil prices

here in asia stocks rallied on the dollar's rebound. t also i want to keep track of the tech sector. samsung electronic also came out and said it did not use qualcomm chips in its latest smartphone. so we'll watch out for that sector as well. that's all for me. back to you. >> okay ramin. thanks a lot for that update. well, officials at the japan business federation or keidanren, have compiled a proposal to be presented to the government for its discussions on energy mix. they are proposing that the ratio of nuclear power reliance in 2030 should be more than 25% of the country's energy needs. >> translator: keeping a certain level of nuclear power plants is necessary for japan's energy policy and for global measures to fight climate change. >> keidanren officials say the ratio of renewable energy sources such as solar power should be about 15% and thermal power should cover the remaining 60% or so. they say their proposal is for a stable supply of power at economically efficient prices. officials also say that in addition to restarting n

the dollar index is virtually flat. s of the language tomorrow evening around 7:30. we had an eight-week low in the dollar. the dollar is supposed to be the most sought after currency. 96.78 is where we are. he said this is the loosest tightening ever. we have a poll of 59 economists we surveyed. 73% say september will be the month for the rate hike. the yen is virtually anemic as the week goes on. retail sales down. >> french oil producer hotel beat estimates. the company's profit came in at 2.6 billion, add of the 2.2 billion estimate. bps first quarter adjusted the profit. dividends matched estimates. the dutch company reported its fourth consecutive quarterly loss. this comes in the same month that fedex announced plans to take over the company. >> a little later we get the latest u.k. gdp figures. it is set to expand four times faster than the rest of the economy. let's find out what is behind the surge. thank you for joining us today. we were just looking at the markets today. you have now moved around 3 billion po

we're watching the u.s. dollar carefully in the wake of the jobs reaction. eaker it was sharply weaker on friday. this is a big focus on earnings season. costing u.s. companies $18.7 billion last quarter. that could be a preview for next earnings season. our next guest said that isn't even here here.yet. you have an interesting perspective because you work with companies these big corporations fortune 500 to hedge their exposure. explain about what you do. >> yeah we do at fireapps help companies with technology understand their exposure. the issue about currency it's complex. you have lots of currencies. a typical company is over 200 currency pairs all over their balance sheet and their income statement. and understanding that is where it starts. while everybody focuses on what strategies there are, what derivative products one should use, the more fundamental aspect is what are the exposure. you look to go into the earnings season. euro will have a significant impact. more even so than before. so corporations want to understand their exposures. what is comi

the news. >>> strong dollar no more. the u.s. dollar dropping today on the back of comments from atlanta fed president dennis lockhart that the fed's interest rate plans were being complicated by outside factors. today the move on the dxy not a big one but for the week it's down 1.8%. >> i thought it was a really big move. the way assets are responding to the dollar is exactly how they were not before so the correlations with the dollar have been broken and if you look at the things that are working here, emerging markets have outperformed the s&p by 10% over the last 20 days. this is a breakout that you haven't seen, a sustainable breakout that's getting to a place where you can make a call that after four-plus years of underperformance, em is finally doing something. they were holding serve which means doing okay when the dollar was rallying. i think the miners and resource plays are exactly where you want to play because they are the ones that also i take the view that commodities are bottoming or have bottomed. therefore, a lo

the u.s. dollarally should resume. that is going to weigh on asia. they have benefited from qe. you could see capital outflow from asia. so we are cautious despite the monetary loosening. angie: we are going to leave it there. thank you for joining us from singapore. ocof wealth management for bc. will report on the pros and cons of asian companies exporting workers. ♪ angie: welcome back to first up. millions of people from this part of the world travel abroad to earn a living. politically, there are calls to bring them back. feway earn governments a points, but reality bites, and local economies cannot afford to keep them at home. david inglis takes a look. they keep their head down and worked in the foreign lands they call home, that migrant workers make things tick. playing a vital role to the economies of the world that adopted them and the world daily behind. look at the philippines. they have done well, beneath world beating stock market rallies, there is a problem. citizens see better prospec

the impact of cheap oil. alex: i think dollartrong dollar's effect on inflation which has been yellen's key point when looking at when they will raise these rates. matt: i just had to look at the economic surprise index. olivia: it is very impressive. why don't you show the camera. ? matt: it would require a lot of movement. i want to bring in david miller no relation. the author of the dollar track which explores how the greenback has tightened its grip on global finance. your bullish on stocks as long as they are immune to the stronger dollar? is the stronger dollar going to hurt corporate profits and bring down the u.s. stock market? david: it all depends how much the dollar strengthens and which companies you're talking about. if they are cutting exports, the strong dollar hurts them. they are importing, to benefit. matt: we already expect three quarters of declining profits. that is not good news. the most correct forecaster of the dollar strength says the dollar will continue rising and strength. that does not seem to bode

the dollar-yen level is 119.49. he july 2007 low was reached on march 10 when dollar-yen was one to 2.03 -- 122.03. at the start of the year, the strategists were saying that the dollar should be 2% up against the yen. chairman furman: i would have been in that --simon: i would have been in that group as well. mark: what went wrong? simon: no more than the fact that we underestimated how many of the currencies that would come along an act is currently for the currency trade. the swiss franc, the danish krone, the euro came along. in that circumstance the yen did not have quite the same interest. that said, i still think that the yen has got further troubles ahead. i think you had your member with dollar-yen -- you have to remember with dollar-yen, it figures in a matter of 6-8 weeks. i suspect that i would actually probably be a little more aggressive on the downside and think we could see something like 130 by the india. my argument is simple. -- by the end of the agreement my argument is simple. there is no inflati

as earnings get into full swing tomorrow, the strong dollar could be a major wildcard. b.k., you have been all over the currency story and the impact on earnings. >> i was surprised to see the dollar being stronger and the u.s. stock market until this afternoon did pretty well. so to me earlier today i thought maybe people are shrugging this off thinking that the dollar isn't going to get stronger. i happen to think it is going to get stronger throughout the year and it's going to be an issue. i think this afternoon when we saw the market rollover, that was the realization, this dollar may not be going sideways forever. you might want to shake off one quarter's worth of earnings but what if you have to shake off the next quarter's worth of earnings? at the very least the u.s. stock market has to relate on thrate . >> companies have had a couple quarters now to deal with the strengthening dollar. a lot of these companies probably hedge at the zenith of the dollar, the bottom of the euro so they have themselves all twisted around. the currency moves this year, it's last ye

the majority of their on-board sales are in dollars. a lot of their guests are international getzs, so the purchasing power has been reduced on board. as a result they spent less. they had a revenue pick. that's the very simple way of spending. now, they said 36 cents is what the impact is going to be also a bit because of the higher fuel prices, but the lower guidance is what is moving that stop to the down side. the ceo of royal caribbean listen on shortly >>> let's talk about china marks. on friday they banned -- and over-the-counter stocks we did see shanghai and hang seng on the 24th it was 20%, with two steps, they lowered it. this is the second time they have cut these reserve requirements. it's going to make more funds available -- more funds held by the banks to be available for lending. obviously people think it's going to be significant. other things they're talking about is a cut in interest rates. again, the cut in interest rates is what stimulated the storm. on november 21st they cut interest rates from 6% for 5.6% and cut

the same mode. hence you see a firmer euro versus dollar. it still is in a range we continued to monitor the 110.5 level in terms of a closing price that could reverse that range mentality. back to you. >> rick santelli in chicago keeping our eye on oil prices as well. jackie's at the nymex. >> we are seeing oil prices make a little bit of a comeback here. we had traders digesting a lot of news over the weekend, really taking into account the potential for a deal with iran and saying yes, iranian oil could come back on the market but analysts are saying it may not be until 2016 so really no reason to panic to the downside right now. you also have saudi arabia raising prices to asia. this is the second month that they've done it. what that signals is that they're seeing stronger demand. they've been saying that demand is picking up for quite some time. meantime, we're also watching the dollar which is weaker today. what's also interesting is the spread. notice the spread between wti and brent is tightening here. now only around $6. really show

you don't want to be buying the dollar. ocks. >> versus small caps? >> well i still think the small caps is where you get your beta. i think you stay with the iwm above 121. that's going to give you more bang for your buck. >> bang for your buck. get it it was a question of the dollar. >> well played. >> not where he was going. >> i was going to say kensho is a bright guy. it might be a bright woman. >> anyway got a question out there for kensho you'd like to us answer, tweet us @cnbc @cnbcfastmoney. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. it's more than the cloud. it's multi-layered security and flexibi

a lot of different ways to evaluate the dollar. i digress. as they are now, what does hot mean? it means they're talking about normalizati normalization, raising rates, whatever path they take whether you believe it's happening sooner or later the market picks up on this. what happens is, all roads lead to the fed. if you trade equities, it becomes part of the what used to be the greenspan put, which became the bernanke put, now the yellen put. ult malgtsly, why does it become such a dollar relationship? meaning when the dollar goes down, stocks go up, when the fed's hot? well, makes perfect sense because everything is somewhat managed. we could use the word manipulate. it's got a negative connotation. today we had lewis woodhill on, smart guy, he doesn't believe normalization should include higher rates. the fed should target the crb. i understand why, substitute one form of control for another may not be the easy answer. if you are trading equities it looks to me like right now, we're not necessarily very hot. so we're in a range, 105 to 110

of course, at the end of the day the dollar started descending. it will probably be a different story tomorrow. how important is the notion that the dollar just doesn't go up every day anymore? let's map out some positives. it's almost earnings season. we don't want to hear endless number cuts that include the need to reflect the dollar's continual rise. most analysts haven't even cut numbers. probably about 70% of the analysts have not cut numbers yet because of the international companies because of the strong dollar. that's insane. it might call in question the upper trajectory going forward. it eases the commentary about the weak competitive position of the united states, which otherwise is about to be severe or lead to a slew of downgrades. you get the change in direction as subtle as it is. it allows companies to lenl and an lests to breathe and be less dire in their forecasts. it's known as constant currency. that's the wording for how a company would have done if the dollar weren't so strong by making their excuses sound less outrageous. me

let's talk about the dollar. what happened to the strong dollar trade? the losses are accelerating this afternoon. the euro strengthens. that is the plus side to this trend. europe's economy is improving while u.s. growth is slowing down. let's take a look at oil. second biggest monthly gain since may of 2009. inventories are also declining. that is having an effect on oil prices approaching $60 a barrel. nevertheless, we are seeing pressure on energy stocks, down .6% of 1% -- down .6%. alix: what is going on in the markets? the year's most popular trades are unraveling. we have the euro climbing against the dollar, which is facing its first monthly decline since june, even though europe is still limping along. we have european stocks selling off. we have the german 10-year bund seeing its worst loss since 2011. have the 10-year over 2% even though the fed is still dovish. lisa: you are the one who brought this to my attention this morning. you took a big picture of the markets. what is the deal? lisa: that is what everyone is asking. some of this probabl