every though from the dollar, look at the fed dollar index.t is no coincidence that the dollar goes high when the dollar is low, so the question of gold is do think the dollar is going up and you don't typically one gold and if you think the dollar is going down, he went gold. betty: people do not buy gold because they are making a better dollar. they are making a bet -- james: gold is up 22% this year but it is up more for currencies because those currencies are down. more thanally up others. not inold as money and terms of dollars but weight. the dollar price could be a lot higher, so you do have to look at it in terms of the currency if you are an investor. mark: how closely do you look at open interest? we have a chart here that shows open interest in gold and futures that have risen to the highest level in five years. are shows that traders expecting further increases. is that your way of looking at it? james: i think it is important data that i don't exactly describe. to me, it is the ratio of paper gold to physical gold because those fu

i showed the u.s. dollar, but the market is already being quite aggressive and presumption of what happens next on the pound. they are already moving. andrew: yeah, you are seeing pressure in the market. we saw the stock market on thursday down by about 2%. we will see what today brings. but basically, there is pressure on every front, from investor perspective in egypt. the government seems to be scrambling little bit to get ahead of the curve. just bad luck. the country cannot seem to get a break. manus: andrew barton, thank you very much. managing editor, joining us with the latest on the egyptian airplane. now, let us get to my next guest. he is an aviation consulting, mark barton, the ceo, on the phone from new delhi. thank you so much for joining us this morning on this story. main pieces that we in theen to understand last few hours, it is understood there are a number of warning signals, smoke in the cabin. and the second seems to be that the debris being found thus far, over a wide geography, and ver

now the dollar's going down. g to become more accommodative. >> i'm just saying, the markets, you are what the market says you are, like bill parcels. >> last week a calamity was said to be coming. this is my macro main man over here, tells me that central bankers have lost control. that calamity will probably come sooner than later. >> a legitimate question whether central bankers and policies have lost its efficacy. >> the markets have spoken, right? the markets have spoken on the ecb, the -- >> they have. they've gone up. >> no, the currency markets. i should clarify that. look at it. look at japan. >> don't talk about the u.s. >> but that's -- we can't just -- what do you mean? we're barely up for the year. come on, are you kidding me? we're talking like the market's up 20% for the year. we're barely flat for the year. >> we're barely flat in 18 months. >> exactly. look at what's gone on with the japanese, the nikkei, 225. these are all down. >> but don't you think there's been great opportunities for position

>> we were short against the canadian dollar and the u.s. dollar. at some point, we decided the move was strong enough and take our position what. and took that the canadian dollar given that oil prices are already quite high. and promote, being long u.s. versus the dollar. in our view, it can go towards certainty, even a bit below certainty, at high times. depending on how quickly the fed reacts, what is the low. but in principle here, around 71, 72, i think there's more downside for the aussie. >> we're not expecting further syste stimulus. it's more about bank lending. how does that play into your focus on the euro here? >> well, if they do something for bank lending, i still think there's a bit more room for carry trades and other things, and to still see some euro downside, as long as this is coming. on the other side, the euro strongly undervalued list as the u.s. dollar. if the median, in the longer term, we have to prepare for a situation that inflation is coming higher. and as inflation is coming higher, probably the ecb is not as convinced

the interesting thing will be the dollar. if we look back to 2014 -- francine: that has strengthened already a little bit. jane: exactly. if we look back to 2014, what the fed didn't anticipate was that huge move in the dollar in 2014. this year, we've had the treasury pushing back against currency wars, against dollar strength. but if we get the dollar beginning to correct higher into june and july as the market puts interest rate hikes back on the table, that could be something like a delay. francine: depending on how much they can stomach dollar strength. thank you so much, jane foley. we will be talking about yen next. coming up as g7 finance ministers and central bankers meet in japan. we will look at the danger that a stronger yen poses. stocks in emerging markets are down with the chances of a fan dyke increasing. -- of a fed hike increasing. and it is the world's largest luxury brand. we will bring you our exclusive interview with lvmh. ♪ francine: welcome back. let's get the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic.

i think people are looking at the weaker dollar. the oil, dollar, credit, bank trade is breaking down. it means that people are no longer seeing it falling apart. >> at these points, are they going to come back together again? has the underlying fundamentals changed? not at all. the oil suppliers roughly the same. we don't have any more demand. the u.s. economy and the global economy is not as strong as it was before. so you have to be concerned -- >> in fairness, it's not as weak as the most bearish people say it is. maybe you included, i don't know. >> i don't know about that. i think it's pretty weak. we're looking at a global recession, if you define it 3% global growth or below that. u.s. economy's running half a percent gdp. that's not very strong. we're not in recession yet. >> everybody thought johnny yellen had a hawkish slant. people thought that's what they took out of the last comments. you cannot find anything hawkish in the dollar's move from yellen's speech. >> look, the fed has really so much to do and so little they

is the u.s. dollar reacting to a strong yen? look, i think the u.s. will be hampered by the fed outlook for some time. we do expect things will change in the months ahead. we expect them to recover on a month-to-month basis to 110 and above. it will require markets become serious about the prospect of a fed tightening. we are looking for two hikes this year, that is what the fomc said in the forecast. short-term, gdp, q1 was lousy. q2 will be better but not that great. until it becomes a real present danger that we will have a fed hike, the dollar will be slightly on the backslide against the low yielding currencies like the yen and the euro. angie: what is a good strategy when it comes to the u.s. dollar, and where are you calling it for the end of the year? >> look, against the euro, we are thinking 108. we do think it to recover after those two hikes. the dollar-yen may be 112 by year end. it we expected to gain against the aussie, perhaps canada and new zealand as well. we will see some pretty decent growth numbers from the u.s. over the next few

you say the dollar is in it. the dx: if you look at why, that's how a lot of people define the dollar, it's not back near 100 like it was earlier in the year. that comes down to some structural consideration. if you look at the spread of a 10 year treasury, that's what has blown out multi-decade wide. the euro has been tracking with that over the last 12 months. real dollaring strengthened dollar weakness. so goes the euro. we are seeing some similar patterns with dollar yen as well. get rate hikes this year. shery: it's all about currency. the way that they are moving and the s&p is moving. running it's been ticket for tech the dollar. you can get along the equity group with the current is weakening. emerging-market equities are different. you need the currency stronger. and u.s.opean equities equities, the three main develop markets are seeing a range of trading. get along those equities. it's a unique condition that i think is defined by the sort of collective currency in the process the emerging markets are un

we have a bit more of a gander at the aussie dollar. aussie reacted and reacted again after that it are than expected print when it comes to unemployment. we had a little spike after sitting lower all morning. you can see it has given it right back, down a quarter of a atcent, still trading point72 22. that note from franklin templeton due to expectations of an rba move cutting interest rates and downside in march, pressures from china, seeing the aussie following under 70. let's get a look at how the equity markets are reacting, because sydney has been sitting lower on morning, in fact extending losses, down six cents of 1% on the back of that better-than-expected jobs report out of australia. asian investors .ulling these fed minutes there seeing upside on nikkei 225, the yen the weakest in three weeks against the dollar, the dollar surging to a seven-week high. also, keep in mind japan, a lot of investors and analysts saying the yen has been overbought, shares oversold, so you're looking at a track evaluation's that could be picked u

that was a trading opportunity to buy the u.s. dollar. i think we could easily see a move over the next two month down to 105-107. if you are long on the dollar, the message is clear to stay long. the only copy arts are on -- the caveats would be on sterling. the short positions have now been closed off which is why we at onee sterling up point 47. long positions on sterling, profits are being taken. nejra: what about treasuries. the 10 year yield and 82.2%. how will the yield curve look? bob: the selloff in the u.s. treasuries market has been frustrated for more investors for a number of years. i do think that if we end up with a fed fund rate at the end of the year, we will inevitably see some selloff in the u.s. treasury market. i think it will be pain release slowntil we -- painfully until we get clear acceleration. a more substantial selloff will be delayed until 2017. 2017 could be quite a difficult year. if we see headline inflation 2.5%-3%towards 2.5-debt by the middle of 2017, that will put pressure on the fed to move away from th

this is the bloomer dollar -- the bloomberg dollar spot index. that is the six month chart. to a one year low, almost a week or so ago. since then, it has rebounded for five days out of seven. busy not only talking about the dollar. it has also talked about the price of gold, raising its forecast. but scaling back expectations of rate hikes over the next year, but it does remain bearish on the metal's prospects. it has increased its 3, 6 and 12 month forecast. $100050 to respective. appearhe upsides -- limited, we see a number of catalyst for gold prices to moderate, including a more ultimately u.s. policy rate diversions corresponding with gradual dollar appreciation over the next three to 12 months. that was when golden december fell to its lowest level since 2009. seena rebound we have since then. best quarter in the first quarter in 30 years. we have seen a surge of 20% this ,300, surging through $1 last week. moving on to a number of companies that are released earnings today. rlsbergroke -- ca reported sales up by 2%. just narrow below estimates arrowly below estimates

it is kicking the trend. dollarbe the the chinese story, or the saudi policy that affects the next move? china,on the subject of it is clear that there is some source of cyclical recovery underway in china. i think you still have the very severe structural headwinds, which may well impact the country for a number of years to come. but cyclically, china is recovering. the marketsting how always tends to focus on exports for china. they always say that is the best indicator of what is going on in china. rubbish. imports tell you how much demand there is within the domestic economy. the import growth a year ago was -20%. it is now getting close to zero. -- there yet,y or but we are getting close. it will continue and there are signs that it can continue. dealthat provides a great of order for the global economy. i am not sure enough to send oil prices that much higher. anna: where do you stand on the eurozone growth at the moment? germany factory orders in march. exports picked up. it seems there was a bit of a domesti

the dollar on dubai gold. -- the dollar or by gold. -- buy gold. billionaire says the best quarter from 1986 could be the start of something bigger. talking about greek gold, jpmorgan has a call there. the ceo talks about how greek stocks are about to erase their 2016 losses. the stocks in athens are not the best performing in western europe. the jpmorgan is saying it is teed up late to get into the greek stockmarket rally that we see. contrast, morgan stanley and the like, they had been recommending greek stocks or greek banks later on this year, had it all comes back to the finances meeting we saw in brussels on monday, where we saw for the first time ever plans for debt relief in greece being seriously put on the table. they are trying hard to keep the imf as part of the bailout talks. todoubt greece will continue be important as we head towards the summer months. manus: i will be back with you at 6:00 a.m. we have a feast on our show "countdown." rishaad: saudi aramco says it is looking to expand internationally due to rising demand for oil. le

all of that is giving them excuse to blame the dollar. >> kathy lien. l see what happens with numbers on friday. >> sell in may, come back in september. there's lots of summer sporting events, so you might as well sell. and when the final horse race, the end of summer sporting events you come bback come back. >>> today's top corporate story, halliburton and baker hughes scrap their deal. the merger would have combined the world's second and third largest oil services company and it raised concerns that it would result in higher prices and less innovation in the sector. last month, the justice department filed a suit to stop the deal. halliburton will now have to pay a $3.5 billion breakup fee. >>> deutsche bank has systemic failings in its controls against money laundering, terror and sanctions. it reports that a separate independent review has been ordered. there were concerns about the bank as governance. they are cooperating. and the shares are down 2.3% this morning. >>> quaker oats is being sued for $5 million over claims the company has been using

let's take a look at the dollar. seeing the bloomberg dollar index rising, hitting a two-month high. gold on the other hand falling for a fifth day in a row. that is its longest losing streak since november. this is the picture ahead of yellen speaking on friday. as we are getting more hawkish comments building up from various fed officials. the question is could we get a repeat of what we saw in markets after the rate hike in december with a strong dollar selloff in stocks? the picture in oil is very different. we are seeing a bit of a drop in wti ahead of u.s. government data that is forecast to show u.s. crude stockpiles declined whereas the trend really has been upward for much of this year. but, if you look at where oil is $47 enderle.s at 4 a barrel? . anna: saudi arabian stocks has plunged the most since january, compounding its sellof. f . manus has the chart of the hour. manus: it is basically telling you that volumes are gearing up for this quiet period. the drop of over 3%. 166 stocks declined. we have not

but if that changes, we could see volatility in the dollar. nus: one of the conversation we're having here in dubai this morning with our political at wargaming. governments are doing it, traders are doing it. if you had to bet money on a single fx option trade, if you had to buy some fx option trade that could cover this period of time, would you look at yen, euro, the emerging market? where do you think the prism of volatility will pop the most? you did not put sterling -- jane: that one is perhaps the closest, that is next month. and certainly, the options market, certainly the customers relating to euro sterling has been looking at that. there is al, i think long way to go in terms of political uncertainty with respect to brazil. i think you'd be fairly brave to get involved in that market. with respect to the yen, that is of course certainly a very significant liquid instrument. and i think the yen -- jane, just very briefly, looking at june as an option -- just a 12% option for a rate hike. jane: we have seen that morning from many fed me

that puts upward pressure on the dollar. hat into remission a few months ago after the december hike. and now, you know, the market sort of keeps looking for are they going to stay more dovish or start to backtrack on that? and so far they have stayed pretty dovish and odds of a june hike are like 10%. so far we're out of the woods. but this is an ongoing battle. >> we'll see tomorrow after the jobs report. jurrien. are we at the point where -- is weighing on economic activity? >> i wouldn't say it is weighing on economic activity? but i do think that when there is more uncertainty the market wants to be compensated through a higher risk premium and that means lower pe. all else equal, if earnings are the same. if a -- is too high at a time of uncertainty and the market thinks 15 pe is better then the markets will adjust downward. >> are you seeing that now? the picture from earnings, it hasn't been that bright. seeing some bottom line beets and some companies raising guidance but perhaps not enough given the uncertain enviro

alix: the dollar held on to gains for a second day after falling joe: to its lowest in almost a year. joe:and we are about three quarters of the way through earnings seasons. tesla and whole foods due to report earnings in this hour. alix: what does the u.s. economy look like in the shape of a trump presidency? guest have a very special joining us, all of her run it is our cohost for the hour. we are going to begin with the market minutes. another selloff for stocks. it was kind of across the board. allhad energy, financials, leading the way lower. s&p financial stocks, they were at a two week low. real leumi day and we had some eco-data that was bumpy and did not help to provide anything. joe: it was ugly overseas and asia-pacific was down. just once again, risk off, not that dramatic but not that great. oliver: it is a smooth ride up and once you get to 2100, things start to get shaky. a couple of sectors i think are interesting today -- you have the strength relative to the rest of the market -- these are three of the groups that help keep the market afloat year to date. thefact th

it sent the dollar little higher. , but yesterday when mr. ing repeating the same, line about the fed encore, u.s. yields started to tick lower. 50-50 attill a 10%, the end of the year. we haven't seen a shift that dial all that much, and in terms of fx price action we have seen some pretty big moves in the dollar, and this week has been a bit of the snap back. i don't see today's number really shifting that tylenol. -- that dial at all. guy: quasi--- how long will they -- aussie, how low will they go? >> we had, i think, after the rate decision on tuesday, we had august very much in play, and now i think we are moving that up so we could get a rate cut earlier than that, and further on down the curve. that isit's important the rba is looking at their inflation forecast, i think it's a big indicator. the aussie economy is very dependent on global trade, and what does it say about global trade if there inflation and growth forecasts are being slashed? guy: has the market take anything away from the elections in the u.k.? >> i don't think so. no

the u.s. dollarhow much of the rally, since february as you say can be predicated on more fed easing and the weaker dollar as we've seen and the fact that weaker dollar has allowed on oil prices and how much down in earnings. >> or the rebound in oil. >> the rebound in oil which i think is linked to the u.s. dollar move but i do think earning season has seen differentiation in oil prices. apple an example of that. they saw eight days of decline. the crammer interview allowed it to rally. i think earnings season has seen differentiation. >>> a bidding war brewing in the pfizer second, pfizer approaching medivation. to challenge a 9.3 billion offer when satapy went public. of course, this is all still on reports. and it's also after pfizer's deal was blocked for allergen, which would have changed its tax address to ireland when the treasury imposed new laws on inversions. this is a smaller deal but it shows that pfizer is still hungry. by the way, pfizer reported earnings, solid revenue growth, profit

the strengthening dollar is striking up -- is the steadynga -- rate against the dollar combined with depreciation against other major currencies. our guest is the international investment strategist at devere group. when you look at china, the problem is that everything goes back to the fed. there is believe policy diversions, we may see the beginning of the dolly riley -- the dollar rally. summit,is why the g-7 japan came under a lot of pressure from the americans to go easy on your monetary weakening. is the ofr tfor that american saying that we want the dollar weak. china to make chinese exports more attractive because the last time china tried to do a devaluation against the dollar, last summer, it dropped the percent, -- dropped 3%, markets got shook up. i subscribed to some say a conspiracy theory, that is there a tacit agreement whereby china will devalue by the dollar devaluing. that helps the two biggest economies in the world. francine: what you are pointing out is the shanghai accord, whereby the fed and u.s. authorities decide to hold off normalizing policy so as not to pu

where do you see the dollar going? >> well longer term we do re --. there is uncertainty about the more near term outlook. we do believe that on the back of sustained improvement in the u.s. data from here, activity data joining the constructive labor market outlook from here, all that helping the fed hike rates. for june there are some risks for the next rate hike by the fed but we do believe the policy divergence rate will reinstate itse itself. >> yesterday we got disappointment with the adp private perayrolls. what are you expecting from non pharms? >> i think payrolls will be sufficiently strong to keep expectations of future rate hikes on the table. the way we see the dollar at the moment is too many negatives in the price at the moment. the market is pricing in less than 20% chance of a rate hike in june. which i think is a bit of a extreme view really as it stands. so presumably the dollar will be responding much more strongly to positive surprises. and by positive surprise i'd like to highlight potential indications that wage growth has picked

let's get back to the dollar index. at 9328. the third day that the dollar is on the way up. everything else falling especially these oil related currencies. we saw a big tumble in the ruble. a big tumble in the lenny. a fairly big trade deficit for canada. all helping push money back into the u.s. currency. one other currency want to mention. watch out for the vietnamese currency. a fairly big move, the biggest move in about six or seven months. they just adjusted it. that is something to keep in mind. the cash market and about an hours time and very quickly, the aussie dollar. that says a lot about where we are as far as the majors right now. basically flat ahead of key data tomorrow in the united states. authorities ordering takata to replace airbags. it was already the biggest recall in american history. they found the root cause of these airbag failures. >> moisture is of a factor that these have exploded with so much force. this is another big blow in the crisis that takata has failed to contain. honda released a statement in the last half hour or so but in this latest

the important part of it, and they tont roll unless the dollar is strong. if they roll, the whole market rolls, and we will test the back lows again, because you are will get the growth scare again as to where are things going, but you need more macro data at that. >> that is what i was suggesting at the top that the bulls in the market got exactly what they wanted today if you are getting a weaker than expected jobs report, and the fed pushed back a little bit fur the than expected though, i don't know what is expected anymore when it comes to raising the rates. >> and the only thing that is 50-50, judge, is 2017. i mean, when you are looking at the actual numbers, the only, based on what is trading as far as real dollars instead of the best guess, it is out to 2017 with a 50-50 bet on the moves. >> and by the way, after brexit, and the elections, and we will see what happens with the elections, because you could have the fed on hold again. >> and this dollar trade that we think is ultra important of where the stocks are going to go from here, and you would

the dollar, we can't underplay it enough yesterday, strong stock rally in the face of a strong dollar face of more talk of a rate hike. of course, previously, we've been having to rely on more easing talk for markets to rally. the euro, 1.1142, has some reprieve. gold prices recently, weaknesses by half a percent. >> dollar is strong, flip side, gold gets hit. >>> jim bullard said a june hike isn't set in stone. but in an interview with cnbc, bullard did argue that market data suggests it's time to pull the trigger. listen. >> obviously, we try to be data-dependent, i don't think there's any reason to prejudge the june meeting at this point. we can wait until we get to the meeting, see what the data say and try to make a good decision there. i think on the issue of press conferences we have made many moves over the years, without press conferences. so, i think we could make a move without a press conference in this circumstance. >> keep in mind, no press conference at the july meeting. yes, in june, opening up the suggestion as other regional fed presidents this week have for two to t

the week. tomorrow in fact. aussi dollar down by more than 1%. we saw the rba cutting interest rates to buy 25 basis points, surprising some and the market, at least before exchange market. apps apprised some, but some factored in that moved by the rba, given what we have seen with the negative cpi. let's get to the bloomberg first wilderness. juliette: the yen's biggest rally. governor, heoj has once again reiterated that policy makers want hesitate to expand monetary stimulus in order to achieve the 2% inflation target. the chief investment officer of one of america's biggest pension funds has joined warren buffett and scolding money managers who charge 2% fees on assets under management and retain 20% of the gains. billionat the $187 california state teachers retirement system called the practice "broken." >> as an investor of b negotiate hard. capital, weestor of negotiate hard. the model is broken and we are negotiating much lower management fees and incentive fees. the englishey won premier league. they could only manage a draw. leicester ci

one of the drivers is the dollar. if we see it move higher we will see commodity prices soften a little bit. that is going to be a continued burden. the question is whether the fed in my view overreacts to that or just realizes i need to get on with normalizing and move forward anyway. that is where the u.s. data takes on increasing importance. scarlet: great to have your perspective. coming up, how much or how little should market see listing two fed speak? of ross stores falling in trading. ♪ authorities are trying to determine if wreckage found off the coast of greece is from the egyptair flight that appeared from paris to cairo with 56 people on board. authorities say debris found close to where and egyptair flight is presumed to have gone down does not originate from aircraft. reports are conflicting. for more details, let's get to carolyn. good evening. this is going to be not very good news for the families of the victims. president of the greek committee of aviation security saying the debris may not belong to

it is trading below 92 for the dollar index. not only the japanese yen but other emerging market currencies. just about every single stock on the way down. glass cutting its guidance and leading the decline there. we are waiting for guidance on the drop-off ratio. about 9%. if you don't have very good news on your stock you can expected to be on the way down today. let's flesh out what is happening in australia. we are down 1%. down 2.5%. let's have a look at what is happening. been thesespot has gold producers. goldman sachs we just a few dollars above 1300 and ounce. called $2000 back in 2011 .e are just 54% short of gold australia's biggest gold producer. last i checked it was quite a day. 85%. some markets are reacting to the good news that the firm has managed to reach a deal with its bankers on this existing syndicated facility agreement. more breathing space before we start celebrating put this into context. the stock is trading at $.55. the share price was above the six australian dollars. longer term it is still way down

a rebound in gold has come cropper as the dollar strengthens. u.b.s. d could a take a tumble. the federal reserve opts for two rate increases before the end of the year. and according to ubf, some people will get caught on the wrong side, goal will roll over and fall back to 1,150 and be ready for more weakness in the short term. really quickly, after the g.d.p. data, .4% in the last quarter. i want to look at pound dollar, implied volatility telling you the expectations for volatility for swings in this exchange rate in the month period. and as you can see today, we've seen a massive move upwards. 5%age points from 11 to 16. that's a 50% jump almost which is the most since 1998. that's interesting because it comes as the pound itself rises to the highest level since january. it's up 6% since reaching its 2009 low on february 26. and it comes, francine, after further good news for michael ashcroft in a poll that says almost 65% of voters believe it will remain in the u but concern still remains, under a month to go before the referendum. volatility. loo

united states, the dollar is very strong. e tourists coming to the united states -- the number of tourists have dropped but when they come to the united states, they're not spending as much because the dollars have made these items more expensive. >> thank you for joining us, jaronne martis. >>> i want to bring you breaking news we're getting of an earthquake in ecuador. the magnitude 6.7 earthquake has struck in western ecuador and reportedly has a depth of 28. a magnitude 6.7 earthquake striking western akwbou ecuador. >>> shares in fiat are driving higher, in fact, at the top of the stoxx 600 at the early trade. and it's climbing back to the losses we saw from yesterday's session. but today, investors focusing on news of the potential tieup with g.a.s. reports that g.a.s. could be looking at an interest in stoxx. so investors digesting this report from the italian newspaper. again, we'll be watching developments on that throughout the morning. >>> meanwhile taking a look at mitsubishi, the president needs to step down amids

is janet yellen the keeper of the dollar now? neil: she is not the keeper of the dollar. here has been a big change. the fed as markov's end of the impact of the dollar on inflation. that put significant downward pressure on core inflation and the fed obviously has to lean against that to some degree. i do think a lot of this is overdone and the fact that the dollar has now come down a little bit is going to put some upper pressure on poor import prices. plaza did not work so they did move -- louvre. as you say we have really had quite a move. neil: we have, no question, and i think the fed -- people are talking about the second plaza. i do not think of it that way. i think it was more sort of a mutual coming of the mines with respect to the inflow of china on the global economy. tom: we could not have a plaza accord. francine: i think it is a mona lisa economy. tom: how can you have a martini if the oak bar is closed? on foreign exchange in the plaza, neil dutta, in our next hour jeffrey rosenberg will join us. chief investment strategist for blackrock. we will talk parti

early this morning, for the flip side of the dollar, trade is gold hurt by the reassertive dollar overst few weeks. gold is strong today up .80 about $10. >>> it's interesting to see the dollar move on friday after the back of the retail sales better than expected. it was a strong move straight after the numbers. as the day went on, people said, this is going to change the likelihood of the rate hike in june. we won't get one and that eased off toward the end of friday's session. >> it's all about the fed and getting the expectations right. if it's going to be june, july, september, the market's not pricing in june right now but a lot of fed officials have been speaking and saying june is on the table. and if we continue to get strong numbers like we did in retail sales, which suggests that the economy is really rebounding from no growth in the first quarter, will that change the fed's mind? consumer prices are coming out this week. cpi, that will be key. >> that will be key but june 1 is ahead of brexit, i just cannot see that happening. the question really is, how many more do we get

the euro dollar 1.14. we were looking at a much lower euro dollar. we have a guest in a half hour's time so we can get more into what's going on notice currencies at that point. >>> let's move on with the pmi data. japan's final raidirating shows industrial sector contracting with the earthquakes hitting manufacturing output. and in china, the official pmi fell slightly short of expectations. here in europe, our european equity markets mixed again. that's why you're looking at a gray spot on the actual map. but the xetra dax a little higher and the ftse lower. the nikkei off by a further 3.5%. air france having appointed a replacement for ceo. the replacement is familiar with the new firm after sitting on the board of directors of air france during the late 1980s. shares in the airline are off by more than 11% so far this year. >>> looking at another story, a report is says the state is looking to put its positions in some of the largest firms up for sale in order to pay for an aid package. >>> and the u.k.'s financial watchdog has now accused deutsch

the dollar may have bottomed and that may have factored. energy financial materials were weak today. you know what the market leaders are. energy financials and materials this quarter and a very specific reap. those are cyclical stocks. very specific reasons why cyclicals have done well this quarter. let me show you the q2 trade, the trade everybody is doing. you have the weaker dollar and combine it with a stable china and you combine that with oil bottom and you put up the next full screen and have an accommodative fed and what you got is buy cyclicals, energies and industrials and that's exactly what everybody has been doing. today, things are just a little bit under strain with this whole thesis. first off, everybody has been buying the cyclicals like crazy so they are overbought. 21, 22 times forward. that's a problem. second problem, china's data has been choppy. overnight we saw the manufacturing data weak. it's been very hard to read and then you throw in the dollar reversings, and you've got a little reversal of trend. here's the bi

the u.s. because today, king dollar it ain't. we are seeing some he currencies related to minors doing well today but give us a sense that the u.s. dollar really has been the out performer. suddenly janet yellen adding to the course that is a hike to come, is it june or july? >> it is the swiftness of the change in tone. if you took it how cautious they were highlighting risks about china and seemingly in a short period of time turning it around to the next several months you may have a hike. that is the most important thing we've always seen and have strengthen the u.s. economy to justify a hike. it is surprising how quickly that has changed. >> does the economy support this change as well as some of the vocalization that we are getting from the fed? that you got is on the one hand remaining the market that u.s. interest rates are going up and make a up sooner than you think but there is always a caveat -- the result is a caveat that if the data justifies it. which could be nonfarm payrolls are unemployment dropping. in the fed i

up next, is the dollar do for a rebound? chs calls the bottom, saying expectations have fallen to four, too fast. - too f too fastar ♪ caroline: welcome back to a very sunny berlin. you are watching "on the move." the dax index is off by half a percentage point. down after we saw profit driving 30% on a technical issue. nevertheless, let's look at your day ahead. at midday u.k. time, we get a snapshot of the u.s. property market. brazil's lower, house of congress is scheduled to vote on the impeachment of president dilma rousseff. 15 minutes after george osborne will be questioned by the house of treasury select committee about a report of the permanent economic damage of brexit. you can watch that on life go. guy: let's talk about with happening in the currency markets. richard jones joins us. this is caught my eye and yours as well -- a piece of "the telegraph." a part of the speech carney gave in nottingham. carney tells amanda said down the u.k. base rates could go to 3.5%. i brought up a chart of u.k. base rates -- this

we've had five days of gains for the u.s. dollaranother move strength against the yen, following comments from the japanese finance minister? >> i think honestly, it's the concern or hope that we won't have any more rate increases as far as the federal reserve is concerned. i think that's silly. we're going to get perhaps one, perhaps two. right now, there's hope that the rate structure will go sideways. i'm almost amused at the attempts by so many people to draw correlation with crude oil and stock prices as if they move in tandem with one another. they move that way hour by hour. but i had a chart on yesterday showing how the course of the last several years how diametrically opposes they are. stockings going up, they move in contravention with one another, not in convention with one another. >> that's in part because crude collapsed over the last year or two years. how do we break this near term cycle answd get back to a near healthy place as you're suggesting? >> sara, i wish i knew. it will happen when it happens. i'm relativel

the dollar has been driving it so the strong dollar for a period of time on the back of the fed which they were doing which weakened the yen. the u.s. economy probably looks like it is not primed for any rate rises right now and the yen is the other way. these are things that are very hard for someone to control. >> why did everybody, almost everybody at least get it wrong on thursday? >> i think the way everyone looks at the trade is there is a stablizing force and this is good for the japanese economy, good for the marx, good for abe. i think there's kind of more of a want than really the trade that was put on. the want was to weakten from 108 to 110 back to 120. a huge move. this move has started four years, three years ago at 75. there is going to be some replacements along the line. it puts a lot of pressure on abe right now. >> everybody is off that bet now. now the directional call is it is going to strengthen past 90 and possibly beyond a hundred. that's the thing. what could intervene here? could it be the bank of japan? could it be the government? >> look, i think the one th

of course, is the dip in the dollar really over? at we should perhaps recover in the second half of the year. the reasons behind that, next. ♪ rishaad: goldman sachs says the dollar slump is over, after the rally from last year's all-time low. the seven months show expectations for growth and a rate hike went too far into fast. it is asians the dollar for a rebound. goldman sachs estimates a chance of 50%, as it normalizes. usy are expecting -- joining is christopher brankin from ameritrade asia. thank you for joining us. give us your base case as to what happens and what needs to happen for the dollar to appreciate. the way the market is going, it is being mispriced. christopher: i think so. i am in the camp that we will more rate hikes for the remainder of 2016. so the feds stick to the 1% mandate or goal for the year, in terms of where the rates are being held. along with the fact that the u.s. is going to be tightening everything from the ecb, jcb, australia looking to ease its policy, those things in tandem will appreciate the u

the dollar yen at 110.36. lds, but the shift in sentiment over what the federal reserve may do. 10.86%. this is bloomberg "." time for an international battle of the charts. julie hyman taking on mark barton. what have you got? julie: i want to look at something that federal bank of new york measures. it is a measure of the 10 year term premium. the perceived riskiness of data security versus shorter data security. going back to the 60's that is because the gap is the smallest since 1962. not only the smallest, but it is negative. -0.3 percentage point. that means that you are not seeing a perception of riskiness of longer data securities in this environment, even as the fed says june and july could be live and rates are going higher because we are seeing competitiveness of the u.s. treasury market. that is one of the things that has been driving the buying of treasuries or has put a floor under u.s. treasuries. there are some bond market professionals that say the level below zero, going negative, it's is

we started the day off with a firmer dollar across the board. firmer dollar against the japanese yen as well. that was constructed for japanese equities. and maybe there was an element of profit-taking here because we saw the paradigm reverse. there's also the market questioning the durability of the profitability numbers and the forecasts that are coming out, a lot of them are bleak because of the yen functions that corporate japan has made. so relatively stable at the close, but we were higher earlier on in the session up by more than 1%. so really not a great deal of conviction. it remains to be seen where the growth expectations are. we have more than one eye on what is happening in the u.s. with the earnings season, with the dollar, with treasury yields and ultimately what the fed does as well. ladies, back to you now. >> thank you for that, sri. as you mentioned the dollar is still holding on to the gains after the yen and the strong retail sales on friday. >>> we'll get back to data points out of china. this as chinese regulators ordered b

the just breaking through that against the dollar. the bank of japan governor said that policymakers will not hesitate to expand monetary stimulus to achieve that target. >> one of america's biggest pension funds has joined warren buffett in scolding money managers who retain point percent of the gains. retirement teaches systems and calls the practice broken. >> as an investor of capital, we negotiate hard. i have said clearly that the two and 20 model is broken. for large investors it is off the table and we are negotiating much lower sets. >> and u.k. risk is losing 250 billion pounds per year in trade if it leaves the european union. alistair darling says is estimated to be between's -- that much higher than without eu membership. described thee claims as absurd. lake --english premier came close to relegation from the premier league a year ago. 5000 -- when the season began in august. if you are a bloomberg terminal user, find our top stories on top . less that after game was a bit late for me but i heard the cheers. let's che

issue is what level will the dollar be and will the fed participate to lower the dollar. would determine how long i would in the u.s. market. anthony: the market is overvalued. what do you think the catalyst will be to bring the market down. >> one, we enter all of s. recession. we only grew a half percent in the first quarter. the ray consumer and retail stocks are trading, it's getting worse, not better. china, they have to recap their banks. the question is when do they do it? i think they fear donald trump and too big a change for their own global reasons. the third is the risk of donald trump actually winning. it's feared more by foreigners than actual americans. anthony: do you fear it? >> i don't. i think the discounting of a potential trump win is something you need to hedge yourself against. it's been radically changing. i think there is a good chance he will win. i think if he did, i think he would do the infrastructure spending. i do not think he would be any more hawkish in terms of monetary policy. i think he might replace yellen. but he would want to be as l

. >> gold was higher even with the dollar strength today. >> yeah. i thought the price action today was horrible. if i was a bull, i would be very frightened. you had retail sales which were actually good. it beat expectations. broad economy very well. countered what happened to macy's and nordstrom's this week. so this should have been a goldilocks scenario. the whole thing just faded. so for me, when a market turns on good news, that's a very negative sign. >> i think people need to relax a little bit. i don't think that the market is entirely turned. oil, first of all, the dollar strength today should have knocked commodities on its tail. oil's proving everybody wrong. commodities are still around the 200 day. i actually think the resource sector has bottomed and that this is part of what you're going to see. i think there's actually inflation coming, at least in the form of commodities. the macro data we had this week was not very good. but the dollar should be responding and it should be weakening. >> yeah. >> if anything, you're getting at least

the dollar? ining of what the fed will do, almost a rolling moment to the next fed rate increase, whether it is june or september. the fed is stepping back, weaker dollar. fedfed is steps -- the steps back in and china destabilizes. the market vigilantes taken as a whole versus policymakers, -- don't know what it is when everything is said and done, policymakers will stand on their personal domestic agendas. that almost unimaginable they will raise rates so close to brexit. here is the issue, the timing. the next meeting is in the middle of june. if the polls are still tight and they think that is a concern, will they make a move after the referendum? tom: he is heated at the idea link economic policy to -- jon: you cannot find the transmission mechanism for the spill off politically to the financial market. you are better at this than i am. what is not happening in the markets is german rates driving lower. that is almost an elephant in the room. two-year, 10 year negative yields have been studie

q2 and q3 will give some sense of the dollar. the vicious dollar moves we've seen in the last two or three years is now behind us. if you look at the problems china has had committee issues -- a further rally in the dollar will not be good. is this why you see a bottom in the commodities bear market? caroline: i think -- david: i think we are in the process of seeing a very volatile bottom in the commodity complex. that does not mean there couldn't be a bad month in the coming year. that doesn't mean all commodities are going to bounce. are the onescopper we are most concerned about. we are at the beginning at the end of that. that has enormous applications for asset allocation across commodities. that should put a floor under inflation and allow equity earnings to bounce back in the second half of this year. influences. it is a different era. investing in a narrow falling commodity prices for five years. that is about to change. caroline: our second biggest thing we want to talk about, usually housing, now it is how much outside

the dollar is up slightly. the fact they are going in the same direction has not been that common lately. they have been diverging. vonnie: the dollar has been baffling. companies, they held on to their direction. julie: yes, company specific news has been steady. companies have been rising consistently, hurt and elmer beating estimates, activision blizzard, that videogame company, and a mixed report but analysts say because it is increasing its hiring, the company has a better outlook. has beenwnside, endo the big loser, cutting its forecast and plunging 41%. as i mentioned, many of the other drugmakers along with it. fluor also coming in below estimates. vonnie: we will check back in a little bit. , morek of the headlines from our newsroom. police in montgomery county, maryland have a suspect in custody in a series of shootings in the area. as auspect is identified 62 old who was captured in the aspen hill area. the first shooting occurred thursday at a high school. the second was that a mall parking lot and t

side and on the dollar side. to thoughts also on what happened with the bank of japan. a lot of people were expecting a surprise. they came out with nothing. they are waiting to see how the negative interest rates playing out. what is that due for the set of expectations next go around with the boj? steven: the first and most immediate impact was that it told the market was the next meeting was not for another six weeks, so they could do whatever they wanted with the dollar yen and the boj would not react. theythe boj viewpoint, were in a tough position because there were a lot of moving parts to any policy ease. right now, think the market is skeptical that they can go deeper into negative rates and i think that would be one of the major hurdles that they would have to surpass to get an effective stimulus climb put in place. alix: road quick, talking about the yen and the stimulus plan. what currencies are going to rally the most against the dollar as it continues to fall? steven: what we have been seeing right

and it definitely the u.s. dollar. angie: the u.s. llar has been perhapstability a floor for chinese stability, even. >> yes. our view is that the banks have been reading the dollar -- rigging the delicate what has been happening is that banks have been pushing the dollar down for some time, currencies down for some time, and they want to push the dollar back up again. before, it was short on the dollar because, how can you have negative interest rates and putting into a currency? at the end of the day, if you are not getting return on the currency, why be in it? it does not make sense. my view would be that there is plan that is going on that we are not reading about yet. angie: where are you calling the yen? >> we think it will continue to strengthen, which it has done since 1973. it is important to keep perspective. the foreign currencies tend to go down. you may recall in 1973, the yen was at 400 yen to the dollar. we feel like, we will not give you a number, but we feel that the yen will continue to strengthen, because now with no

issue is what level will the dollar be and will the fed participate to lower the dollar. would determine how long i would in the u.s. market. anthony: the market is overvalued. what do you think the catalyst will be to bring the market down. >> one, we enter all of s. recession. we only grew a half percent in the first quarter. the ray consumer and retail stocks are trading, it's getting worse, not better. china, they have to recap their banks. the question is when do they do it? i think they fear donald trump and too big a change for their own global reasons. the third is the risk of donald trump actually winning. it's feared more by foreigners than actual americans. anthony: do you fear it? >> i don't. i think the discounting of a potential trump win is something you need to hedge yourself against. it's been radically changing. i think there is a good chance he will win. i think if he did, i think he would do the infrastructure spending. i do not think he would be any more hawkish in terms of monetary policy. i think he might replace yellen. but he would want to be as l