now the dollar's going down. g to become more accommodative. >> i'm just saying, the markets, you are what the market says you are, like bill parcels. >> last week a calamity was said to be coming. this is my macro main man over here, tells me that central bankers have lost control. that calamity will probably come sooner than later. >> a legitimate question whether central bankers and policies have lost its efficacy. >> the markets have spoken, right? the markets have spoken on the ecb, the -- >> they have. they've gone up. >> no, the currency markets. i should clarify that. look at it. look at japan. >> don't talk about the u.s. >> but that's -- we can't just -- what do you mean? we're barely up for the year. come on, are you kidding me? we're talking like the market's up 20% for the year. we're barely flat for the year. >> we're barely flat in 18 months. >> exactly. look at what's gone on with the japanese, the nikkei, 225. these are all down. >> but don't you think there's been great opportunities for position

i think people are looking at the weaker dollar. the oil, dollar, credit, bank trade is breaking down. it means that people are no longer seeing it falling apart. >> at these points, are they going to come back together again? has the underlying fundamentals changed? not at all. the oil suppliers roughly the same. we don't have any more demand. the u.s. economy and the global economy is not as strong as it was before. so you have to be concerned -- >> in fairness, it's not as weak as the most bearish people say it is. maybe you included, i don't know. >> i don't know about that. i think it's pretty weak. we're looking at a global recession, if you define it 3% global growth or below that. u.s. economy's running half a percent gdp. that's not very strong. we're not in recession yet. >> everybody thought johnny yellen had a hawkish slant. people thought that's what they took out of the last comments. you cannot find anything hawkish in the dollar's move from yellen's speech. >> look, the fed has really so much to do and so little they

. >> gold was higher even with the dollar strength today. >> yeah. i thought the price action today was horrible. if i was a bull, i would be very frightened. you had retail sales which were actually good. it beat expectations. broad economy very well. countered what happened to macy's and nordstrom's this week. so this should have been a goldilocks scenario. the whole thing just faded. so for me, when a market turns on good news, that's a very negative sign. >> i think people need to relax a little bit. i don't think that the market is entirely turned. oil, first of all, the dollar strength today should have knocked commodities on its tail. oil's proving everybody wrong. commodities are still around the 200 day. i actually think the resource sector has bottomed and that this is part of what you're going to see. i think there's actually inflation coming, at least in the form of commodities. the macro data we had this week was not very good. but the dollar should be responding and it should be weakening. >> yeah. >> if anything, you're getting at least

the dollar? ining of what the fed will do, almost a rolling moment to the next fed rate increase, whether it is june or september. the fed is stepping back, weaker dollar. fedfed is steps -- the steps back in and china destabilizes. the market vigilantes taken as a whole versus policymakers, -- don't know what it is when everything is said and done, policymakers will stand on their personal domestic agendas. that almost unimaginable they will raise rates so close to brexit. here is the issue, the timing. the next meeting is in the middle of june. if the polls are still tight and they think that is a concern, will they make a move after the referendum? tom: he is heated at the idea link economic policy to -- jon: you cannot find the transmission mechanism for the spill off politically to the financial market. you are better at this than i am. what is not happening in the markets is german rates driving lower. that is almost an elephant in the room. two-year, 10 year negative yields have been studie

is the u.s. dollar reacting to a strong yen? look, i think the u.s. will be hampered by the fed outlook for some time. we do expect things will change in the months ahead. we expect them to recover on a month-to-month basis to 110 and above. it will require markets become serious about the prospect of a fed tightening. we are looking for two hikes this year, that is what the fomc said in the forecast. short-term, gdp, q1 was lousy. q2 will be better but not that great. until it becomes a real present danger that we will have a fed hike, the dollar will be slightly on the backslide against the low yielding currencies like the yen and the euro. angie: what is a good strategy when it comes to the u.s. dollar, and where are you calling it for the end of the year? >> look, against the euro, we are thinking 108. we do think it to recover after those two hikes. the dollar-yen may be 112 by year end. it we expected to gain against the aussie, perhaps canada and new zealand as well. we will see some pretty decent growth numbers from the u.s. over the next few

that was a trading opportunity to buy the u.s. dollar. i think we could easily see a move over the next two month down to 105-107. if you are long on the dollar, the message is clear to stay long. the only copy arts are on -- the caveats would be on sterling. the short positions have now been closed off which is why we at onee sterling up point 47. long positions on sterling, profits are being taken. nejra: what about treasuries. the 10 year yield and 82.2%. how will the yield curve look? bob: the selloff in the u.s. treasuries market has been frustrated for more investors for a number of years. i do think that if we end up with a fed fund rate at the end of the year, we will inevitably see some selloff in the u.s. treasury market. i think it will be pain release slowntil we -- painfully until we get clear acceleration. a more substantial selloff will be delayed until 2017. 2017 could be quite a difficult year. if we see headline inflation 2.5%-3%towards 2.5-debt by the middle of 2017, that will put pressure on the fed to move away from th

it is kicking the trend. dollarbe the the chinese story, or the saudi policy that affects the next move? china,on the subject of it is clear that there is some source of cyclical recovery underway in china. i think you still have the very severe structural headwinds, which may well impact the country for a number of years to come. but cyclically, china is recovering. the marketsting how always tends to focus on exports for china. they always say that is the best indicator of what is going on in china. rubbish. imports tell you how much demand there is within the domestic economy. the import growth a year ago was -20%. it is now getting close to zero. -- there yet,y or but we are getting close. it will continue and there are signs that it can continue. dealthat provides a great of order for the global economy. i am not sure enough to send oil prices that much higher. anna: where do you stand on the eurozone growth at the moment? germany factory orders in march. exports picked up. it seems there was a bit of a domesti

the dollar on dubai gold. -- the dollar or by gold. -- buy gold. billionaire says the best quarter from 1986 could be the start of something bigger. talking about greek gold, jpmorgan has a call there. the ceo talks about how greek stocks are about to erase their 2016 losses. the stocks in athens are not the best performing in western europe. the jpmorgan is saying it is teed up late to get into the greek stockmarket rally that we see. contrast, morgan stanley and the like, they had been recommending greek stocks or greek banks later on this year, had it all comes back to the finances meeting we saw in brussels on monday, where we saw for the first time ever plans for debt relief in greece being seriously put on the table. they are trying hard to keep the imf as part of the bailout talks. todoubt greece will continue be important as we head towards the summer months. manus: i will be back with you at 6:00 a.m. we have a feast on our show "countdown." rishaad: saudi aramco says it is looking to expand internationally due to rising demand for oil. le

let's take a look at the dollar. seeing the bloomberg dollar index rising, hitting a two-month high. gold on the other hand falling for a fifth day in a row. that is its longest losing streak since november. this is the picture ahead of yellen speaking on friday. as we are getting more hawkish comments building up from various fed officials. the question is could we get a repeat of what we saw in markets after the rate hike in december with a strong dollar selloff in stocks? the picture in oil is very different. we are seeing a bit of a drop in wti ahead of u.s. government data that is forecast to show u.s. crude stockpiles declined whereas the trend really has been upward for much of this year. but, if you look at where oil is $47 enderle.s at 4 a barrel? . anna: saudi arabian stocks has plunged the most since january, compounding its sellof. f . manus has the chart of the hour. manus: it is basically telling you that volumes are gearing up for this quiet period. the drop of over 3%. 166 stocks declined. we have not

but if that changes, we could see volatility in the dollar. nus: one of the conversation we're having here in dubai this morning with our political at wargaming. governments are doing it, traders are doing it. if you had to bet money on a single fx option trade, if you had to buy some fx option trade that could cover this period of time, would you look at yen, euro, the emerging market? where do you think the prism of volatility will pop the most? you did not put sterling -- jane: that one is perhaps the closest, that is next month. and certainly, the options market, certainly the customers relating to euro sterling has been looking at that. there is al, i think long way to go in terms of political uncertainty with respect to brazil. i think you'd be fairly brave to get involved in that market. with respect to the yen, that is of course certainly a very significant liquid instrument. and i think the yen -- jane, just very briefly, looking at june as an option -- just a 12% option for a rate hike. jane: we have seen that morning from many fed me

every though from the dollar, look at the fed dollar index.t is no coincidence that the dollar goes high when the dollar is low, so the question of gold is do think the dollar is going up and you don't typically one gold and if you think the dollar is going down, he went gold. betty: people do not buy gold because they are making a better dollar. they are making a bet -- james: gold is up 22% this year but it is up more for currencies because those currencies are down. more thanally up others. not inold as money and terms of dollars but weight. the dollar price could be a lot higher, so you do have to look at it in terms of the currency if you are an investor. mark: how closely do you look at open interest? we have a chart here that shows open interest in gold and futures that have risen to the highest level in five years. are shows that traders expecting further increases. is that your way of looking at it? james: i think it is important data that i don't exactly describe. to me, it is the ratio of paper gold to physical gold because those fu

that puts upward pressure on the dollar. hat into remission a few months ago after the december hike. and now, you know, the market sort of keeps looking for are they going to stay more dovish or start to backtrack on that? and so far they have stayed pretty dovish and odds of a june hike are like 10%. so far we're out of the woods. but this is an ongoing battle. >> we'll see tomorrow after the jobs report. jurrien. are we at the point where -- is weighing on economic activity? >> i wouldn't say it is weighing on economic activity? but i do think that when there is more uncertainty the market wants to be compensated through a higher risk premium and that means lower pe. all else equal, if earnings are the same. if a -- is too high at a time of uncertainty and the market thinks 15 pe is better then the markets will adjust downward. >> are you seeing that now? the picture from earnings, it hasn't been that bright. seeing some bottom line beets and some companies raising guidance but perhaps not enough given the uncertain enviro

i showed the u.s. dollar, but the market is already being quite aggressive and presumption of what happens next on the pound. they are already moving. andrew: yeah, you are seeing pressure in the market. we saw the stock market on thursday down by about 2%. we will see what today brings. but basically, there is pressure on every front, from investor perspective in egypt. the government seems to be scrambling little bit to get ahead of the curve. just bad luck. the country cannot seem to get a break. manus: andrew barton, thank you very much. managing editor, joining us with the latest on the egyptian airplane. now, let us get to my next guest. he is an aviation consulting, mark barton, the ceo, on the phone from new delhi. thank you so much for joining us this morning on this story. main pieces that we in theen to understand last few hours, it is understood there are a number of warning signals, smoke in the cabin. and the second seems to be that the debris being found thus far, over a wide geography, and ver

the interesting thing will be the dollar. if we look back to 2014 -- francine: that has strengthened already a little bit. jane: exactly. if we look back to 2014, what the fed didn't anticipate was that huge move in the dollar in 2014. this year, we've had the treasury pushing back against currency wars, against dollar strength. but if we get the dollar beginning to correct higher into june and july as the market puts interest rate hikes back on the table, that could be something like a delay. francine: depending on how much they can stomach dollar strength. thank you so much, jane foley. we will be talking about yen next. coming up as g7 finance ministers and central bankers meet in japan. we will look at the danger that a stronger yen poses. stocks in emerging markets are down with the chances of a fan dyke increasing. -- of a fed hike increasing. and it is the world's largest luxury brand. we will bring you our exclusive interview with lvmh. ♪ francine: welcome back. let's get the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic.

alix: the dollar held on to gains for a second day after falling joe: to its lowest in almost a year. joe:and we are about three quarters of the way through earnings seasons. tesla and whole foods due to report earnings in this hour. alix: what does the u.s. economy look like in the shape of a trump presidency? guest have a very special joining us, all of her run it is our cohost for the hour. we are going to begin with the market minutes. another selloff for stocks. it was kind of across the board. allhad energy, financials, leading the way lower. s&p financial stocks, they were at a two week low. real leumi day and we had some eco-data that was bumpy and did not help to provide anything. joe: it was ugly overseas and asia-pacific was down. just once again, risk off, not that dramatic but not that great. oliver: it is a smooth ride up and once you get to 2100, things start to get shaky. a couple of sectors i think are interesting today -- you have the strength relative to the rest of the market -- these are three of the groups that help keep the market afloat year to date. thefact th

>> we were short against the canadian dollar and the u.s. dollar. at some point, we decided the move was strong enough and take our position what. and took that the canadian dollar given that oil prices are already quite high. and promote, being long u.s. versus the dollar. in our view, it can go towards certainty, even a bit below certainty, at high times. depending on how quickly the fed reacts, what is the low. but in principle here, around 71, 72, i think there's more downside for the aussie. >> we're not expecting further syste stimulus. it's more about bank lending. how does that play into your focus on the euro here? >> well, if they do something for bank lending, i still think there's a bit more room for carry trades and other things, and to still see some euro downside, as long as this is coming. on the other side, the euro strongly undervalued list as the u.s. dollar. if the median, in the longer term, we have to prepare for a situation that inflation is coming higher. and as inflation is coming higher, probably the ecb is not as convinced

the dollar, we can't underplay it enough yesterday, strong stock rally in the face of a strong dollar face of more talk of a rate hike. of course, previously, we've been having to rely on more easing talk for markets to rally. the euro, 1.1142, has some reprieve. gold prices recently, weaknesses by half a percent. >> dollar is strong, flip side, gold gets hit. >>> jim bullard said a june hike isn't set in stone. but in an interview with cnbc, bullard did argue that market data suggests it's time to pull the trigger. listen. >> obviously, we try to be data-dependent, i don't think there's any reason to prejudge the june meeting at this point. we can wait until we get to the meeting, see what the data say and try to make a good decision there. i think on the issue of press conferences we have made many moves over the years, without press conferences. so, i think we could make a move without a press conference in this circumstance. >> keep in mind, no press conference at the july meeting. yes, in june, opening up the suggestion as other regional fed presidents this week have for two to t

the u.s. dollarhow much of the rally, since february as you say can be predicated on more fed easing and the weaker dollar as we've seen and the fact that weaker dollar has allowed on oil prices and how much down in earnings. >> or the rebound in oil. >> the rebound in oil which i think is linked to the u.s. dollar move but i do think earning season has seen differentiation in oil prices. apple an example of that. they saw eight days of decline. the crammer interview allowed it to rally. i think earnings season has seen differentiation. >>> a bidding war brewing in the pfizer second, pfizer approaching medivation. to challenge a 9.3 billion offer when satapy went public. of course, this is all still on reports. and it's also after pfizer's deal was blocked for allergen, which would have changed its tax address to ireland when the treasury imposed new laws on inversions. this is a smaller deal but it shows that pfizer is still hungry. by the way, pfizer reported earnings, solid revenue growth, profit

we have a bit more of a gander at the aussie dollar. aussie reacted and reacted again after that it are than expected print when it comes to unemployment. we had a little spike after sitting lower all morning. you can see it has given it right back, down a quarter of a atcent, still trading point72 22. that note from franklin templeton due to expectations of an rba move cutting interest rates and downside in march, pressures from china, seeing the aussie following under 70. let's get a look at how the equity markets are reacting, because sydney has been sitting lower on morning, in fact extending losses, down six cents of 1% on the back of that better-than-expected jobs report out of australia. asian investors .ulling these fed minutes there seeing upside on nikkei 225, the yen the weakest in three weeks against the dollar, the dollar surging to a seven-week high. also, keep in mind japan, a lot of investors and analysts saying the yen has been overbought, shares oversold, so you're looking at a track evaluation's that could be picked u

you say the dollar is in it. the dx: if you look at why, that's how a lot of people define the dollar, it's not back near 100 like it was earlier in the year. that comes down to some structural consideration. if you look at the spread of a 10 year treasury, that's what has blown out multi-decade wide. the euro has been tracking with that over the last 12 months. real dollaring strengthened dollar weakness. so goes the euro. we are seeing some similar patterns with dollar yen as well. get rate hikes this year. shery: it's all about currency. the way that they are moving and the s&p is moving. running it's been ticket for tech the dollar. you can get along the equity group with the current is weakening. emerging-market equities are different. you need the currency stronger. and u.s.opean equities equities, the three main develop markets are seeing a range of trading. get along those equities. it's a unique condition that i think is defined by the sort of collective currency in the process the emerging markets are un

it is trading below 92 for the dollar index. not only the japanese yen but other emerging market currencies. just about every single stock on the way down. glass cutting its guidance and leading the decline there. we are waiting for guidance on the drop-off ratio. about 9%. if you don't have very good news on your stock you can expected to be on the way down today. let's flesh out what is happening in australia. we are down 1%. down 2.5%. let's have a look at what is happening. been thesespot has gold producers. goldman sachs we just a few dollars above 1300 and ounce. called $2000 back in 2011 .e are just 54% short of gold australia's biggest gold producer. last i checked it was quite a day. 85%. some markets are reacting to the good news that the firm has managed to reach a deal with its bankers on this existing syndicated facility agreement. more breathing space before we start celebrating put this into context. the stock is trading at $.55. the share price was above the six australian dollars. longer term it is still way down

the u.s. because today, king dollar it ain't. we are seeing some he currencies related to minors doing well today but give us a sense that the u.s. dollar really has been the out performer. suddenly janet yellen adding to the course that is a hike to come, is it june or july? >> it is the swiftness of the change in tone. if you took it how cautious they were highlighting risks about china and seemingly in a short period of time turning it around to the next several months you may have a hike. that is the most important thing we've always seen and have strengthen the u.s. economy to justify a hike. it is surprising how quickly that has changed. >> does the economy support this change as well as some of the vocalization that we are getting from the fed? that you got is on the one hand remaining the market that u.s. interest rates are going up and make a up sooner than you think but there is always a caveat -- the result is a caveat that if the data justifies it. which could be nonfarm payrolls are unemployment dropping. in the fed i

this is the bloomer dollar -- the bloomberg dollar spot index. that is the six month chart. to a one year low, almost a week or so ago. since then, it has rebounded for five days out of seven. busy not only talking about the dollar. it has also talked about the price of gold, raising its forecast. but scaling back expectations of rate hikes over the next year, but it does remain bearish on the metal's prospects. it has increased its 3, 6 and 12 month forecast. $100050 to respective. appearhe upsides -- limited, we see a number of catalyst for gold prices to moderate, including a more ultimately u.s. policy rate diversions corresponding with gradual dollar appreciation over the next three to 12 months. that was when golden december fell to its lowest level since 2009. seena rebound we have since then. best quarter in the first quarter in 30 years. we have seen a surge of 20% this ,300, surging through $1 last week. moving on to a number of companies that are released earnings today. rlsbergroke -- ca reported sales up by 2%. just narrow below estimates arrowly below estimates

up next, is the dollar do for a rebound? chs calls the bottom, saying expectations have fallen to four, too fast. - too f too fastar ♪ caroline: welcome back to a very sunny berlin. you are watching "on the move." the dax index is off by half a percentage point. down after we saw profit driving 30% on a technical issue. nevertheless, let's look at your day ahead. at midday u.k. time, we get a snapshot of the u.s. property market. brazil's lower, house of congress is scheduled to vote on the impeachment of president dilma rousseff. 15 minutes after george osborne will be questioned by the house of treasury select committee about a report of the permanent economic damage of brexit. you can watch that on life go. guy: let's talk about with happening in the currency markets. richard jones joins us. this is caught my eye and yours as well -- a piece of "the telegraph." a part of the speech carney gave in nottingham. carney tells amanda said down the u.k. base rates could go to 3.5%. i brought up a chart of u.k. base rates -- this

we've had five days of gains for the u.s. dollaranother move strength against the yen, following comments from the japanese finance minister? >> i think honestly, it's the concern or hope that we won't have any more rate increases as far as the federal reserve is concerned. i think that's silly. we're going to get perhaps one, perhaps two. right now, there's hope that the rate structure will go sideways. i'm almost amused at the attempts by so many people to draw correlation with crude oil and stock prices as if they move in tandem with one another. they move that way hour by hour. but i had a chart on yesterday showing how the course of the last several years how diametrically opposes they are. stockings going up, they move in contravention with one another, not in convention with one another. >> that's in part because crude collapsed over the last year or two years. how do we break this near term cycle answd get back to a near healthy place as you're suggesting? >> sara, i wish i knew. it will happen when it happens. i'm relativel

one of the drivers is the dollar. if we see it move higher we will see commodity prices soften a little bit. that is going to be a continued burden. the question is whether the fed in my view overreacts to that or just realizes i need to get on with normalizing and move forward anyway. that is where the u.s. data takes on increasing importance. scarlet: great to have your perspective. coming up, how much or how little should market see listing two fed speak? of ross stores falling in trading. ♪ authorities are trying to determine if wreckage found off the coast of greece is from the egyptair flight that appeared from paris to cairo with 56 people on board. authorities say debris found close to where and egyptair flight is presumed to have gone down does not originate from aircraft. reports are conflicting. for more details, let's get to carolyn. good evening. this is going to be not very good news for the families of the victims. president of the greek committee of aviation security saying the debris may not belong to

we will talk a lot about the dollar today. geetha ranganathan breaks down disney's disappointing earnings. how the yen is affecting toyota's bottom line. guy johnson has goldman is latest call on the dollar. ahead to theooks vote on dilma rousseff. plummetingisney premarket. it posted second-quarter results that missed analyst estimates. ,e welcome geetha ranganathan live from princeton. let's talk about the shortfall and reaction here. obviously, they missed both topline and bottom-line. most of their media peers had reported better results. what happened there, we saw some mixed results. at thestrong growth studio division. the shortfall was on the tv side. issuesan any fundamental , it was a lot of noise, affected by some timing issues. the timing of certain college football playoff games that happened last quarter as opposed to this quarter. that curtailed tv ratings and address. -- and add growth. there's been a lot of hyperfocus on that segment, which caused the stock to fall. amanda: espn was hit hard by that shipping sa

all of that is giving them excuse to blame the dollar. >> kathy lien. l see what happens with numbers on friday. >> sell in may, come back in september. there's lots of summer sporting events, so you might as well sell. and when the final horse race, the end of summer sporting events you come bback come back. >>> today's top corporate story, halliburton and baker hughes scrap their deal. the merger would have combined the world's second and third largest oil services company and it raised concerns that it would result in higher prices and less innovation in the sector. last month, the justice department filed a suit to stop the deal. halliburton will now have to pay a $3.5 billion breakup fee. >>> deutsche bank has systemic failings in its controls against money laundering, terror and sanctions. it reports that a separate independent review has been ordered. there were concerns about the bank as governance. they are cooperating. and the shares are down 2.3% this morning. >>> quaker oats is being sued for $5 million over claims the company has been using

united states, the dollar is very strong. e tourists coming to the united states -- the number of tourists have dropped but when they come to the united states, they're not spending as much because the dollars have made these items more expensive. >> thank you for joining us, jaronne martis. >>> i want to bring you breaking news we're getting of an earthquake in ecuador. the magnitude 6.7 earthquake has struck in western ecuador and reportedly has a depth of 28. a magnitude 6.7 earthquake striking western akwbou ecuador. >>> shares in fiat are driving higher, in fact, at the top of the stoxx 600 at the early trade. and it's climbing back to the losses we saw from yesterday's session. but today, investors focusing on news of the potential tieup with g.a.s. reports that g.a.s. could be looking at an interest in stoxx. so investors digesting this report from the italian newspaper. again, we'll be watching developments on that throughout the morning. >>> meanwhile taking a look at mitsubishi, the president needs to step down amids

the just breaking through that against the dollar. the bank of japan governor said that policymakers will not hesitate to expand monetary stimulus to achieve that target. >> one of america's biggest pension funds has joined warren buffett in scolding money managers who retain point percent of the gains. retirement teaches systems and calls the practice broken. >> as an investor of capital, we negotiate hard. i have said clearly that the two and 20 model is broken. for large investors it is off the table and we are negotiating much lower sets. >> and u.k. risk is losing 250 billion pounds per year in trade if it leaves the european union. alistair darling says is estimated to be between's -- that much higher than without eu membership. described thee claims as absurd. lake --english premier came close to relegation from the premier league a year ago. 5000 -- when the season began in august. if you are a bloomberg terminal user, find our top stories on top . less that after game was a bit late for me but i heard the cheers. let's che

the dollar has depreciated. the fed looks at whether to hike or not, it looks at the famous equation ben bernanke set out in 2010. it is about benefits, costs, and risks. you have to take all three into consideration. i think they will hike at least once and could twice this year. mark: you wrote the fed is happy to validate market expectations it has helped manage in what has become a strangely intimate, codependent relationship. as we know, not all codependent relationships are healthy. does this relationship have the possibility of becoming unhealthy? >> i think it has. if you look at what has happened in japan, it is a clear signal central banks are getting closer to that line that separates effective monetary policy from not just ineffective policy but counterproductive monetary policy. i think japan signals a warning to other central banks to be careful not to overdo it in terms of unconventional policies. vonnie: do you see the fed moving in september before a u.s. election or would that create uncertaint

issue is what level will the dollar be and will the fed participate to lower the dollar. would determine how long i would in the u.s. market. anthony: the market is overvalued. what do you think the catalyst will be to bring the market down. >> one, we enter all of s. recession. we only grew a half percent in the first quarter. the ray consumer and retail stocks are trading, it's getting worse, not better. china, they have to recap their banks. the question is when do they do it? i think they fear donald trump and too big a change for their own global reasons. the third is the risk of donald trump actually winning. it's feared more by foreigners than actual americans. anthony: do you fear it? >> i don't. i think the discounting of a potential trump win is something you need to hedge yourself against. it's been radically changing. i think there is a good chance he will win. i think if he did, i think he would do the infrastructure spending. i do not think he would be any more hawkish in terms of monetary policy. i think he might replace yellen. but he would want to be as l

is janet yellen the keeper of the dollar now? neil: she is not the keeper of the dollar. here has been a big change. the fed as markov's end of the impact of the dollar on inflation. that put significant downward pressure on core inflation and the fed obviously has to lean against that to some degree. i do think a lot of this is overdone and the fact that the dollar has now come down a little bit is going to put some upper pressure on poor import prices. plaza did not work so they did move -- louvre. as you say we have really had quite a move. neil: we have, no question, and i think the fed -- people are talking about the second plaza. i do not think of it that way. i think it was more sort of a mutual coming of the mines with respect to the inflow of china on the global economy. tom: we could not have a plaza accord. francine: i think it is a mona lisa economy. tom: how can you have a martini if the oak bar is closed? on foreign exchange in the plaza, neil dutta, in our next hour jeffrey rosenberg will join us. chief investment strategist for blackrock. we will talk parti

it sent the dollar little higher. , but yesterday when mr. ing repeating the same, line about the fed encore, u.s. yields started to tick lower. 50-50 attill a 10%, the end of the year. we haven't seen a shift that dial all that much, and in terms of fx price action we have seen some pretty big moves in the dollar, and this week has been a bit of the snap back. i don't see today's number really shifting that tylenol. -- that dial at all. guy: quasi--- how long will they -- aussie, how low will they go? >> we had, i think, after the rate decision on tuesday, we had august very much in play, and now i think we are moving that up so we could get a rate cut earlier than that, and further on down the curve. that isit's important the rba is looking at their inflation forecast, i think it's a big indicator. the aussie economy is very dependent on global trade, and what does it say about global trade if there inflation and growth forecasts are being slashed? guy: has the market take anything away from the elections in the u.k.? >> i don't think so. no

the dollar may have bottomed and that may have factored. energy financial materials were weak today. you know what the market leaders are. energy financials and materials this quarter and a very specific reap. those are cyclical stocks. very specific reasons why cyclicals have done well this quarter. let me show you the q2 trade, the trade everybody is doing. you have the weaker dollar and combine it with a stable china and you combine that with oil bottom and you put up the next full screen and have an accommodative fed and what you got is buy cyclicals, energies and industrials and that's exactly what everybody has been doing. today, things are just a little bit under strain with this whole thesis. first off, everybody has been buying the cyclicals like crazy so they are overbought. 21, 22 times forward. that's a problem. second problem, china's data has been choppy. overnight we saw the manufacturing data weak. it's been very hard to read and then you throw in the dollar reversings, and you've got a little reversal of trend. here's the bi

side and on the dollar side. to thoughts also on what happened with the bank of japan. a lot of people were expecting a surprise. they came out with nothing. they are waiting to see how the negative interest rates playing out. what is that due for the set of expectations next go around with the boj? steven: the first and most immediate impact was that it told the market was the next meeting was not for another six weeks, so they could do whatever they wanted with the dollar yen and the boj would not react. theythe boj viewpoint, were in a tough position because there were a lot of moving parts to any policy ease. right now, think the market is skeptical that they can go deeper into negative rates and i think that would be one of the major hurdles that they would have to surpass to get an effective stimulus climb put in place. alix: road quick, talking about the yen and the stimulus plan. what currencies are going to rally the most against the dollar as it continues to fall? steven: what we have been seeing right

after the dollar amount insert increased by $7 million. the chair: the gentleman from texas and a member opposed each will control five minutes. the chair recognizes the gentleman from texas. mr. weber: i rise to offer a commonsense amendment to the appropriations bill that i would think all members would support. i thank the chairman for his work on this legislation and continuing to prioritize the harbors waterways. one of the most important responsibilities is to conduct oversight under this committee's jurisdiction. this includes the d.o.e. loan program office. our commitment to oversight has led us to request that this fice provide us with the d.o.e. has determined to existing or potential challenges that may impact repayment or be at risk at default. . . the d.o.e. loan guarantee program has a track record of failed loans. in march, reports surfaced that a solar-powered -- solar power company with a $1.6 billion, with bambings, in taxpayer again to -- with a b, in taxpayer loan guarantees could fail to meet its obligations and be shut

it stabilize versus the dollar. d against the japanese yen and other trading partners, but against the dollar, it stabilize. going to hike is most people predicted will, the yuan outflows could accelerate. confidenceundermine and basically make it more expensive for chinese corporate's under pressure to repay their dollar debt. we could have more default, and that is a worry. rishaad: some of the other stories we are following, china stock exchange introducing new rules to restrict trading halts and increased chances of msci inclusion. early this year, msci said inclusion would depend on trading changes being implemented so this could not happen again. terex ending talks, saying it disagrees with the offered price. the decision clearing the way for a rival which had offered to buy the unit for $1.3 billion. the finnish company says it will go ahead with the deal as planned. al india missing estimates. it produced a record amount during the quarter, but did cut back on output and liberties -- deliveries last month. sh

around a 0.4% move against the dollar. against the yen and against the euro. the euro standing at 1.1271. gold prices this morning, a quick look at them, we're seeing them move down by 3.5%. and oil prices remain resilient. we're off been one-third of 1%. the big take away for markets in may, as i mentioned earlier is that decoupling of software which is the traditional relationship. may, both are up strongly. the broader index up 2%. crude is up 4.6%. does that mean that one of those two factors is going to break down quite soon, will it be oil? >> and the answer might be we're in this strange world where better economic data is considered a bad thing for stocks because the market is more worried about the federal reserve raising interest rates than celebrating a better economic picture. the economy barely grew in the first quarter. and it looks like second quarter is a lot better. housing starts are up. construction is coming back. even core consumer prices are starting to rise. something that has been nipping throughout

the strengthening dollar is striking up -- is the steadynga -- rate against the dollar combined with depreciation against other major currencies. our guest is the international investment strategist at devere group. when you look at china, the problem is that everything goes back to the fed. there is believe policy diversions, we may see the beginning of the dolly riley -- the dollar rally. summit,is why the g-7 japan came under a lot of pressure from the americans to go easy on your monetary weakening. is the ofr tfor that american saying that we want the dollar weak. china to make chinese exports more attractive because the last time china tried to do a devaluation against the dollar, last summer, it dropped the percent, -- dropped 3%, markets got shook up. i subscribed to some say a conspiracy theory, that is there a tacit agreement whereby china will devalue by the dollar devaluing. that helps the two biggest economies in the world. francine: what you are pointing out is the shanghai accord, whereby the fed and u.s. authorities decide to hold off normalizing policy so as not to pu

where do you see the dollar going? >> well longer term we do re --. there is uncertainty about the more near term outlook. we do believe that on the back of sustained improvement in the u.s. data from here, activity data joining the constructive labor market outlook from here, all that helping the fed hike rates. for june there are some risks for the next rate hike by the fed but we do believe the policy divergence rate will reinstate itse itself. >> yesterday we got disappointment with the adp private perayrolls. what are you expecting from non pharms? >> i think payrolls will be sufficiently strong to keep expectations of future rate hikes on the table. the way we see the dollar at the moment is too many negatives in the price at the moment. the market is pricing in less than 20% chance of a rate hike in june. which i think is a bit of a extreme view really as it stands. so presumably the dollar will be responding much more strongly to positive surprises. and by positive surprise i'd like to highlight potential indications that wage growth has picked

well, the dollar continues to show strength. we've got the euro dollar up slightly.did hit 116, didn't we? significantly up there. and higher in dollar/yen, a gain, touching that 11.05 level. has this dollar got some legs is the question. >> in the meantime, let's talk about the brazilian group lawsuit. they filed a claim against iron miners and the owners demanding damages over the deadly collapse of the dam last november. while they settled a separate suit in march this is the result of a claim into the disaster which led to the pollution of major rivers. bhp billiton up by 0.5% today. >>> glencore is looking for a way to reduce its debt burden. the mine based in kazakhstan reportedly worth $2 billion. >>> gold prices retreat for a second straight day after hitting 15-month highs earlier this week, this as hawkish comments and the dollar, the coordinator at fx precious metal strategy joins us from amsterdam. good morning, georgette. great to have you on the show. speaking of a rally that is looking like it's running out of steam. what are your thoughts on gold here

let's get back to the dollar index. at 9328. the third day that the dollar is on the way up. everything else falling especially these oil related currencies. we saw a big tumble in the ruble. a big tumble in the lenny. a fairly big trade deficit for canada. all helping push money back into the u.s. currency. one other currency want to mention. watch out for the vietnamese currency. a fairly big move, the biggest move in about six or seven months. they just adjusted it. that is something to keep in mind. the cash market and about an hours time and very quickly, the aussie dollar. that says a lot about where we are as far as the majors right now. basically flat ahead of key data tomorrow in the united states. authorities ordering takata to replace airbags. it was already the biggest recall in american history. they found the root cause of these airbag failures. >> moisture is of a factor that these have exploded with so much force. this is another big blow in the crisis that takata has failed to contain. honda released a statement in the last half hour or so but in this latest

the charge right now? >> dollarading the charge. if mc sentiment communicated very hard that the fed wants to move in june. all of that has been corroborated not just by the minutes bus that they want to move towards normalization in june. the shift in the dollar has been pretty significant. it's going to have fallout effects in my opinion. >> boris, why hasn't been more fallout effect information europe? or is it responding to data? >> you know, it's interesting, the euro has gotten weaker in the currency market division but there's a response the euro below 112 as we speak. so there has been an impact there. as far as equities they're celebrating because going to make them more competitive because the re-evaluation of the dollar is going to make the european stocks more valuable. >> to me, it doesn't seem that stocks can make up their mind do they want a strong dollar because it means the u.s. economy is recovering and things are better and the fed is hiking rest rates as they should in a recovery? or is it bad be

a the yen has sunk to one-month low against the dollar. retail sales growth stalled in april, increasing the likelihood of a delay. european trust makers, including volvo, will face the biggest fine in auto history. the penalty could be imposed within weeks and could top the 1.4 billion euro record. this relates to price-fixing and collusion. the chinese billionaire is offering $4.4 billion to buy out and privatize the hong kong listed property in its. -- property units. the deals aim to relocate listings have been under the spotlight after the chinese stock regulator voiced concerns that this could flood the market. the markets are closed in the u.s. and the u.k. today for the memorial day and the spring holiday, respectively. we have got european stock markets just coming online. the euro 600 adding to those very strong gains we have seen in the month of may. we are seeing more gains come through on germany's index, ahead of the german consumer prices. they are expected to fall into a slower pace in may. 40 is france, the cac down by .1%.

up by the dollar last year. d of see that rubber band bounce back yesterday. and that play for earnings. and the expectation is that we're not getting the interest rate hikes, but this year, i'm not even in the two camp. i think we might get one this year, interest rate hike. playing into corporate earnings, especially global for the dollar looks pretty good. >> yesterday was a strong rally for u.s. stocks. i think some were caught off guard. in the past few days we've seen moves in the markets up and down. 1% gains. energy sector rally. >> on the back of strong oil prices what does that tell you? >> well, it tells me that people are still in many ways positioned for a much more pessimistic stance than maybe is warranted. we saw in zwrjanuary when the market sold off. everybody thought that the financial world was nut necessarily coming to an end but sliding towards a reinvest. as people were thinking, as they should, investing is more of a long-term endeavor that we're starting to see some of that come to realit

the dollar has been weaker. the weak dollar continues. euro dollar making the 1.16 level. arging higher. and dollar yen, those are the two pairs that we're seeing new technical levels being breached. despite the fact that those central banks are easing way more than the central bank. >> it's at a 15-month low for the broader dollar index. extraordinary moves. momentum line those trades even against the fundamentals being against them the momentum is very strong indeed. >> we'll keep an eye on oil which usually moves in the opposite direction, as the dollar, both are moving higher. gold is high as well. charged higher as the dollar has weakened. that's inverse correlation standing up 0.3 percent. >>> this just breaking, eu trims its growth forecast from 8.1% to 8.9%. the eu inflation forecasts have also been cut. >>> let's get on to corporate news today. apple shares are on their longest losing streak in 18 years. found yesterday for an eighth consecutive session. this comes after the tech giant reported its first ever quarterly decline in sales last week. but in an intervie

that does not mean it will be enough to support the u.s. dollar. at is the story right now for dollar-yen. let's have a look at new york crude. this was pushed higher because of the weakness in japanese yen. an outputhope of freeze. 4545 is the level right now. that move is a 28% move in the price of new york crude. this is the june contract. you will look at the july contract. the june contract close on friday. is the level, substantially lower than three years ago. one other thing to watch, gold. a lot of this comes down to what energy prices do next. this is related to risk appetite in the markets. manus: thank you very much. to black gold and oil. may and other producers still consider a deal to freeze output. i spoke with mark mobius, and he told us there is no need. mobius is betting prices will rise. >> i do not think you need a freeze. the market will handle it. you must remember that demand for oil continues to rise. it is not going down. the account globally has gone down precipitously. suppliersmeans that have to diminish, despite what is

the dollar stronger, gold weaker. logy trying to drag the market to their collective trying toand draghi drag the market to their collective areas. caroline hyde from london.

q2 and q3 will give some sense of the dollar. the vicious dollar moves we've seen in the last two or three years is now behind us. if you look at the problems china has had committee issues -- a further rally in the dollar will not be good. is this why you see a bottom in the commodities bear market? caroline: i think -- david: i think we are in the process of seeing a very volatile bottom in the commodity complex. that does not mean there couldn't be a bad month in the coming year. that doesn't mean all commodities are going to bounce. are the onescopper we are most concerned about. we are at the beginning at the end of that. that has enormous applications for asset allocation across commodities. that should put a floor under inflation and allow equity earnings to bounce back in the second half of this year. influences. it is a different era. investing in a narrow falling commodity prices for five years. that is about to change. caroline: our second biggest thing we want to talk about, usually housing, now it is how much outside