the dollar surging. of the big stories we have been covering -- dollar strength has been a feature of the markets. the dollar is almost flat on the major dollar index. these are european markets. we are pretty flat on the cac 40. the ftse 100 down by around .10%. the dollar index fairly flat, approaching and eight-month high. turkishar against the lira -- we previously had seen a gain on the back of the move that was a surprise by the central bank in turkey. that reversed, and once again we see the dollar gaining against the turkish lira. top -- copper is a. coming up, the fed since the greenback story. our next guest says the trend is the sign of any rational market. stay with us for analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: this is bloomberg markets. 101.77.ar index is let's check in on the markets -- the first word news. france, one last chance to salvage his campaign for president. he faces former prime minister francoise -- in a nationally televised debate. on sunday, there will be a runoff election to d

the price. that's why i say euro/dollar is not the best price on that, because on the other side we have the dollar buying which is in full swing. >> why is populism so bad for the euro? in the u.s., we see a populous president, and that seems to be good for currency and growth. isn't it a chance that with the elections next week in france, italy, they could also be in favor of progrowth policies? >> that's the thing about the populous dollar story. investors are quite selective in what they pick. they like to focus on the growth positive fiscal stimulus promises that trump made on the campaign trail. they are ignoring the populous -- the more controversial aspects of his proposal, the proposal on migration, suspending free trade agreements and all that, which could be negative for the u.s. dollar growth from here on out. coming back to europe, the big concern is that, yes, many of those populists -- so that are -- that are anti-establishment vote in europe is on the rise, partly in reaction to the fiscal austerity we've been having. ultimately that could be a positive story for growth. it also com

the dollar. investments, the euro-dollar could be week going into the second half of next year. -- with respect to the itlar-yen, you will not see go to 115. if you look at dollar sterling, -- let's see what happens with the auto statement. and, maybe more fiscal spending. up growth, ite will help the sterling. in any case, we're seeing the dollar will continue. u.s. dollar and yen, i'm going into the bloomberg in bringing up that chart for everybody. you are seeing what has been happening in the past couple days. certainly, the past year where we are seeing u.s. dollar weigh on the yen, which is a good thing. but what about u.s. corporate? is this a strong u.s. dollar for u.s. corporate swimming goes corporate when it goes public? >> look at the u.s. as an economy. it is a very defensive economy, not that you have to sell to the rest of the world, the rest of the world sells to the u.s. todrug policies are able change the gdp growth. up iwill be more than made what we see in domestic growth. that

this is the bloomberg jpmorgan asia dollar index. we are at levels we have not seen since trump was elected president. 2.6%,uge has fallen by led by malaysia, south korea down by 3.8%. are prompting central banks in the region like india, malaysia and indonesia to intervene. many economists think it's likely to determine looser monetary policies and capital in the indian currency fell to a record low. fascinating chart. let's check in on bloomberg first word news. erik johnson has the details. isc: the european parliament looking at a crackdown on political opponents. tomakers called for a halt eu membership for turkey since an attempted to in july. thanalso dismissed more japan gets one more chance to salvage his campaign for president in a national televised debate. there will be a runoff election to decide who will be the republican party candidate. until last sunday, he was favorite to win the presidency but finished a distant second in the primary. mayeuropean parliament head be preparing to challenge angela merkel in next year s

you have the dollar strength story playing on the yen. forident-elect trump thanksgiving, a nice hamper perhaps. that is boosting exports, a 10th straight day of gains with tokyo. >> we picked up the equity rally yesterday in the middle east. if you want to know who is the best performing market of them globally. rocking at 1.75%. up nearly 3%. all but six members were higher. trade is up 5%. this is the strongest performing equity market. egypt is up another quarter of 1%. keep an eye on dubai. traded on shares tech. all of our middle eastern markets are having a nice total to them. there is a world beyond the markets called first word headlines. sources have told bloomberg 1/5 as much as $2 million to buy stakes in hedge funds. the bank capital partners unit is aiming for minority of states . owning part of a hedge fund let's banks profit from higher post financial crisis regulations determine just from using their own money to trade. a right healing service close to raising $300 million in a new round of funding. sources say the dubai-

gaining against the euro and the dollar. ro against the dollar, that is unchanged at one a six-point in. the bond market, auctions in italy today, five years and 10 years. yields generally coming down. german 10 year bond deals up three basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪ seeing is believing, and that's why we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick

em currencies gaining as well against the dollar. quickly to see what has happened in the equity space. equities rising from a or month low. asian stocks steadying after a two-day drop. yousef: fresh off yesterday's announcement that his company ford pay $4.5 billion graphics, the biggest acquisition, siemens ceo has been speaking to bloomberg in riyadh. well asoned the deal as how the election of donald trump and populist movements could impact global markets and siemens. impulse from the united states is spread all over the world. it matters what the president does because the whole world is looking at the united states in many ways. that is why i believe we should be very mindful about what he does and so we will see. way --me put it to this let me put it to you this way. >> we have been growing. dollars in revenue is enormous. what does a ceo of a company of your sides want the president to keep in mind as he considers the implications of free trade projected -- protections. we need to be mindful. me, i would tell him if this was

how do you play the dollar? so you take advantage of the strong dollar and prepare for the fact that it may turn again? josh: the market moves we have seen have been very powerful. we have seen treasury yields rise, risk asset yields rally. we understand that, but we are cautioning people that there may be a little bit of an under appreciation of some of these unknowns and risks and markets may be ahead of themselves. jonathan: great to have you with us. that wraps up some of the market action. let's get to the headlines. >> president-elect donald trump is trying to delay a trial over his trump university until he is president. his lawyers say he is too busy as he prepares for his inauguration. they are heading to court today to continue to put the matter on hold. the judge is the same one who trump attacked during the campaign for being biased against him because of his mexican-american heritage. he has urged both parties to settle. making sure heis is a force to be wrecking -- reckoned with for the next preside

we talked about the strong dollar. bout the upside and it comes to emerging markets and weakness in em currencies. we have the, overall index of msci emerging market currencies, coming down very obviously since the u.s. election. it points to some of the commodities going higher. that is interesting. we need to start to pick apart the emerging markets, don't we? those that are going to do well if commodity prices go higher, and those that do not. those that are reliant on global trade, those that are less so. it is a complex picture. steve: it is. firstly, we would look at the economies that are most dollarized, that use dollars in their economies. we saw turkey yesterday. it is quite a dollarized economy. it is a problem for those countries. with u.s. interest rates rising, with the dollar rising, a lot of those companies in those countries have borrowed quite heavily in dollars, and they will probably want to shed those dollars. we have already seen a lot of , in chinang happening as well, for instance. that is obviou

elections in the dollar rally ends. meanwhile, emerging-market stocks and currencies gaining for the first time in one week. of 8:30ail sales out a.m. eastern time as they prepare for another big day of fed speak, including vice chairman stanley fischer at brookings at 1:30 p.m. eastern time. we will bring you that live on bloomberg television. president-elect trump quickly trying to fill the cabinet, having appointed chief of staff and cheap strategist. chiefion i want -- strategist. attention is now on former stephen berdych and return to michael mckee and marty shankers. i love that title. marty joins us from washington. tell us about stephen. pick. unusual he is a foster. a fortunateilt goldman sachs and then went into the movie business and produced avatar, the highest grossing film of all time. last year, he stumbled across donald trump and according to a great piece, he decided maybe if i go to work and help raise him money, he should win, i could end up as treasury secretary. and that seems to be how it is playin

the best performer against the dollar in that time -- the new zealand dollar up by 36%. e risen by 28%. this is from the beginning of 2010. in commodities, gold of 53%. down 14%.hat period copper up 48%. look at the s&p 500. 164%. salont time period, altra cosmetics and fragrance, which runs a chain of beauty shops in the u.s., has risen 33,000 671%. the worst performer -- transo cean, offshore driller. but under obama, the s&p 500 is the asset class you should have invested in. g #btv 4812. vonnie: i love that chart. to maryave a request in dillon for a long time. here's hoping she saw your chart and will explain to us how she managed to do that. i am going to award the crown to the person who stared adversity in the face. joe weisenthal, you are the winner today. continue to watch "bloomberg markets," and thanks to our contenders. ♪ ,l noon in new york, 5 p.m. in london, i'm vonnie quinn. >> and i'm david gura. welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪ david: from our world headquarters in new york, straight from london to washington and hong kong in this hour, one day left unt

the u.s. dollar and bonds are falling as the market now prices in at 94% chance for rate hikes. this morninging with rising u.s. crude inventories and continued negotiations after a potential opec agreement. production will grow more than previously thought this decade and that is what you need to know. abigail, let's check in on movers. of the themes we are watching is the continuation of the selloff in global bonds. they lost $1.3 trillion in value last week. inare seeing a selloff again the u.s., japan, italy and portugal. prices despite higher in yields and represent that selloff. for the japanese 10 year yield, it is the second day higher positive territory since february 19. from a broader standpoint, just two or five years ago this sort of selloff would be a risk-lost signal but in negative rates, there is a smokescreen. movers, lots of movers in the consumer discretionary. target shares are soaring with beat earnings by 25% helped by a strong back-to-school season while the full-year raise is

remember the hong kong dollar is pegged to the u.s. dollar. g about currencies, the chinese yuan has again been cut, reflecting the dollar rally. the offshore you want falling to record lows after a brief pause in that weakness in the last session. the offshore's discount to the onshore has just risen to the widest gap in two weeks. that means that some analysts are saying we can see that trade in buying cheaper all sore yuan -- offshore you want which could push the domestic rate weaker. also a brief path with the dollar rally, but the dollar is again searching, still at the highs level in 13 years. so we are seeing some more momentum to the down time for other current sees including the yuan and also the japanese yen, falling .4% against the dollar. the yen has been weakening for the past four sessions and is now at the weakest level in eight months. this giving a boost to equity markets, especially exporters in japan. rishaad: let's get to the first word headlines. prices fellonsumer for an eighth straight month in october. the longest strea

we saw equities rise, the dollar rise. financial financials in particular leading the charge, the best sector out there. that's typical since the trump election victory. there were some tweaks of that. telecoms did well and techs did well. today we expect the market to open down. the dow called lower by 2 2 points. yesterday the dow was the laggard, up just around 0.2%. the s&p 500 was up a half percent. the nasdaq up 0.7%. lower in the futures market this morning. let's look at the ten-year treasury note. it continued its march higher in terms of yield yesterday. doing the same again today. the ten-year yield, 2.326. the two-year note hit its highest level since early january yesterday. those yields keep ticking up. slightly interesting yesterday that the markets did react to janet yellen confirming that december was a possibility. that was pretty much priced in. >> i thought we knew that. >> we kind of knew t but still got a market reaction. >> strong wording saying it could be dangerous if they wait too long. let's look

the u.s. dollarouching it strongest level in almost a year in irvine by expectations president-elect donald trump across the pond, the euro suffering its longest losing streak on record. recall volkswagen will 30,000 jobs globally in a n agreement to come back from the omissions -- the emissions cheating scandal and invest in electric vehicles. three key appointments including jeff sessions for attorney general. all of the updates, who is coming and going from trump tower. mark: 30 minutes until the end of the session. stocks are falling today. up for the second week, best run in almost a month. sterling was the outlier last week among the major currencies. it rose against the dollar and is down against the euro. 10 days of decline against the dollar, the longest losing run since the euro's inception of january 1999. sovereign bonds and commodities, let's talk about the world's biggest cement maker raising dividends lying back shares to reward investors following its merger more than a year ago. 2018

you are bringing us the euro dollar against the u.s. dollar. is it just because of donald trump? >> i chose the euro dollar as we are talking about the dollar's strength over the last two weeks. i think it was very interesting with the dollar going into the election, it was interesting if trump was going to win. this is actually the dollar -- this is the most competitive thing for the dollar over a long-term basis. back in 2014, this is a very long-term chart. that big collapse in 2014 reached a huge top. since march 2015 we have had a sideways range. and if you look at this, we are above the 2015 highs, so we do think the dollar value will continue over the long-term. we are in a durable market and we have a lot further to go. if you look at the euro dollar, you're right there lowering the reigns. i think the euro dollar will see a setback now as we see a bounce in the dollar, something to move the foreign trade, but i think any bounce that we sell off to we'll see a break. this is a significantly durable market. what we are seeing with the euro is the euro trading on its own and

let's go to new zealand where we see the aussie dollar getting crushed by the stronger dollar story and0 u.s. cents for the kiwi. the aussie has been down 3% in the last four sessions and oil did rise on friday ahead of this opec meeting. flat. pretty much it's the comeback of 2016. yen bears as well, partying like 1988 come with the dollar sing the biggest two-week drop against the yen. let's see how things are looking up in the region. the early start seems slightly mex. how was i going to play out for wall street? betty: futures will start trading in about an hour and we frombe taking a big lead where europe will be trading in that few hours, so we will keep our eye on how the futures open. we closed a little lower on friday. but let's discuss the aipac meeting. yvonne: the meeting is ramping up after a move that saw china trying to take the global lead with the president saying he global commerce and cooperation. let's go live now to president obama. it is probably his last international press conference. let's listen in. president obama: like everyone else, we will have to wait and

the dollar-yen at 113. nejra: here is what you need to know at this hour here on "bloomberg daybreak: americas." drug use dilemma. the ecb to my not make a call on its bond buying program until early next year. a central bank governor tells bloomberg it is too early to discuss. takeover tactics. johnson & johnson is set to approach tactfully for a giant looks to expand its pharma lineup. trimming its second weekly game as opec focuses negotiated terms on iran and russia after iraq's signals they will agree to a production cuts. the next meeting is november 30 and that is what you need to know at this hour. jonathan: the ecb is facing the decision to extend a 1.8 chilean dollars dennis program. -- 1.8 chilean dollars stimulus -- $1.8 trillion stimulus program. we were in athens earlier to weigh in on the subject. >> bond yields and bond prices have changed. we are entering perhaps a new .ra the numbers show that our policy works. inflation is on the rise as i said before. we look at this data on the eighth of

that seems to have fed through to the dollar. ain, before the election, we were pricing in the probability of a rate hike. it was reasonably high. now we're here, almost at 100% and we have the inflation feeding into the story >> i would say primarily driven by the interest rate story. a currency becomes appealing if it generates higher interest rates. from that perspective it is getting the support that it needs. guy: matt, what is the first question for mr. bullard later on? matt: one of the things i want the dot -- plot is going to look. we have continued to see the mid range come down further and further throughout the last year. i wonder if that is going to turn around and if we're going to see an expectation for more than two interest rate increases next year after this in december. what do you expect? >> yeah, the recent data from the u.s. as janet yellen mentioned in her speech yesterday showed there is compelling evidence to raise interest rates so she keeps talking and has been saying this for many months. we need more d

driving up the dollar. e point where the dollar is overvalued, and the banking system has too many dollars creating bubble risks. there is no real desire for a higher dollar. francine: right, but when you look -- how can you even talk about plaza accord unless you sold in china? and china -- if you don't have china, it's no courted all. tom: you hang out at the grand hyatt. francine: is there any appetite from beijing to get involved? >> china has been pushing aggressively just to join the ba sket. china clearly has aspirations to become a major global reserve currency, and they are just about to open their cabinet. nobody has gotten any exposure you. i think the technicals are strongly in favor -- tom: we have got to go. a bonus "surveillance" round -- euro parity, will euro break parity? >> no. >> no, i don't think so. tom: it's a boring moment. we're rooting for parity. it's exciting. francine: post-truth. thank you. love post-truth, because it talks about trump and brexit. this is the picture. this is th

. >> the dollar particularly strong on wednesday. just pulled back a bit over the last couple sessions for the dollar. the u.s. equity market, a record close for the dow. intraday, we didn't hit a day, the nasdaq pulled back a fraction. european trade today is a bit soft. well, basically flat now. germany, france, italy eking out gains. ftse 100 and spain just behind. asian trade was decent. we had some data out of japan showing improvement in cpi, despite the fact it was still a deflation headline print. the nikkei is, in fact, off the highs today. just showing hong kong and shanghai up. some yen strength has meant it pulled off the highs of the day. >>> oil prices this morning, let's look ahead of the key event risk next week. on wednesday is that opec meeting. wti down to 47.63. it's off by 0.7%. brent 48.58. gasoline under pressure as well. the dollar has been the story. running up yesterday in european trade to a 14-year high. the euro is firmly below 106. 105.95. it's getting stronger, so that dollar strength is taking a pause

the pound is moving. i would say it's u.s. dollar related and not really linked to the developments on brexit over the weekend. we'll look at asian trade which also is rallying in light of the developments over the weekend from the u.s. election side. the nikkei up 1.6% because we have seen the dollar rally across all currencies seeing the yen fall as well. and hong kong nicely up 0.7%. >>> as for the broader market picture right now, we'll look at the ten-year treasury note yield. after what we saw, another jobs report that showed steady jobs growth, 161 jobs add in the month of october, slightly below forecasts, but the unemployment rate goes down. and wages rise by the most that they have since 2009. the ten-year yield higher, 1.81. so selling of treasuries, the risk rally is back on buying stocks selling treasuries. the yields go up. we'll see if the trade continues over the next 24 hours. as for oil, it's also getting a boost today after a tough week last week. i mentioned more than 9% slide for wti. more than 8% slide for brent

but the dollar is significantly higher. gold prices are rounding off the markets, gold has been soft since the election victory. it's bouncing back a bit today. >>> it could be a holiday shortened week, but that doesn't mean it's a shorter week in terms of the data we're getting. it's all packed into two days before thanksgiving. tomorrow we get october existing home sales and on wednesday weekly jobless claims of durable goods, new home sales and the final read on consumer sentiment and the minutes from last month's fed meeting. the markets open for a half day on friday. >>> just a handful of earnings reports from campbell's soup and hewlett packward. >>> and back to the oil prices that gained 5% last week. we are joined now by helena croft. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me on. >> opec-related people are believing we are going to get something -- >> it's back and forth at opec. there was so much skepticism and people were fighting and couldn't work out a cut. but iran came out over the weekend to say we'

the stronger u.s. dollarfor pure this on the back of donald trump's spending plans and the potential spur for inflation. upy with us, richard claret -- richard clarida is here. great to have you as always, richard. over the last couple of years, the dsy punching up and then coming back down again. what's to say that it will punch through again and stay there? --n: -- charles: richard: richard: that's a good question. a big move like that tends to concern the fed. especially for reasons outside the u.s. as it lowers inflation. part of the reason we have not sustained the move above 100 is that the fed then starts to pull back on the pace of rate hike expectations. it might be different. i know those are dangerous and words,- dangerous because the move is more about optimism for fiscal policy and stimulus. in that case there would be less of a reason for the fed to pull back on the pace of rate hikes. we will learn a lot at that december fed meeting with the press conference from chair yellen. only indicating p

we'll look at the dollar board, the mexican peso enjoys a slight bounce be back. it will continue weaken that broader dollar strength that continues, particularly with the 1% yen. gold prices quickly to roabreak four-week win streak. >> you would think the uncertainty that the trump administration brings to markets would result in more people seeking shelter in a safehaven asset like gold, but that didn't happen like other factors near the dollar. >> the first two or three hours we saw the planned trades, the risk-off tape, but this happens quickly in the bond yields. at the moment the bond yield moving higher benefited the u.s. dollar. the fact that you'll have a yield and pick up in inflation might come higher. however, if you spend more and real quickly it could lead to a strong dollar. it will continue, but we have a long ways to go to see the policies affected. >> and now the focus on who he brings as part of his cabinet. speaking of that, a trump administration just said that reince priebus is now the new chief of staff. trump releasing a statement saying, st

the dollar-yen, this is the real benchmark of risk off. money is coming out of the dollar. see there below the 50 day moving average. the yen is depreciating against all major currencies. we are breaking that $1300 level for the sixth day in a row. what happens next with the fed is important. oil managed to rebound from the longest losing streak in two months, even though u.s. crude supply rose to 14 million barrels, the most since 1982. but the import but of the equation jumped the most in 20 years, which is what i call it equidistant risk off personify. anna: we can see more appetites for fixed incomes and sovereign debt. people are nervous about the u.s. election. seeing an bund, also little bit of weakness in the yield there. we had numbers from the insurance sector at the start of this hour as well. the u.k's number from the nine-month net premium, 4.8 billion pounds. premiums yearn to date, up 6%. we will talk about the comments they have to make about brexit. brexit offered an attractive tailwind, according to rsa. what are the broader impacts of brexit on that busine

we saw the move in the dollar index and the 10 year. all kinds of assets are on the move as the result of a short speech. >> he touched on the buzzword in the speech and that was enough to send markets humming. i think this is a little bit overdone. infrastructure spending is not something you just turn on today and you feel the impact tomorrow. te still need to get it approved by a conservative congress. so, we do not actually know how big this project will be. we do not know when it will be coming online. the u.s. economy is not in a position to absorbed this infrastructure spending. people have been thrown back to the 1930's for a comparison, saying we need old-school stimulus to get the economy going again. back then we had double-digit unemployment. we are now running with unemployment close to 5%, close to full employment. if you want to build bridges and roads, and cities, you need to have somebody to pick up a shovel and put it in the ground. fews: that might include a immigrants into the united states of america. looking at thi

bond yields, this could undermine the run-up in the dollar-yen. shaad: the big story at the moment has been this constant weakening by the people's bank of china of the renminbi. we saw a weaker fixed today, 10th straight weaker fixed. the thing is that strengthened a little bit, but what is the read through on this? >> i think the read through is that the chinese central bank is ,oing what it said it would do follow the fixing mechanism and keeping the chinese currency on -- on a stable basket basis. the fixing is a reflection of the dollar strength we are seeing, and i think in terms of the impact on the region, the authorities are probably quite happy it has been contained in terms of chinese currency -- so far, so good. about aet is cautious possible acceleration of the chinese currency depreciation, but so far i think they are keeping to their word and our best case remains for a gradual depreciation of the chinese currency. say in your research that currently markets are all in on the positives or the potential positives of a donald trump pre

as far as the dollar and oil relationship, the opec news flow will trump the u.s. trump dollar. asian equities are rising. for the iisx is set longest rally since 2011. the news this morning is iran and iraq will signal a deal could be on the way. putin says there is a great chance of an opec deal. i am going to but copper in there. i love this phrase, it has gone parabolic. if you do not understand the parabolic means, it is up 20% within one month. hedges are up 19%. that is the largest holding by the hedge fund community+++ 2006. the analysts are trying to keep up with us. morgan stanley says the dollar will rip higher. the bank of america merrill lynch says the dollar will fall. so, those are the markets. we're focusing in on oil. haidi lun is with us. haidi: hey, manus. donald trump has interviewed top investments executives for the role of treasury secretary. people attended meetings at the trump national golf club in new jersey over the weekend. ofmet with the global head real estate at blackstone group. meanwhile, president barack obama says he intends to give donald trum

the dollar down, 1.7%. very small moves for the currency. the euro up, 0.3%. and, sara, if we compare that to the move we saw on brexit day, 8%. >> there's the move that. is the mexican peso. it's down 9.5%. so the peso is more acting like the pound after brexit in terms of the sharp fall bearing the brunlts of the pain and the political uncertainty of the trump presidency. that makes sense. also the japanese yen, out of the peso, out of mexican assetses. is it an overreaction or is this going to be a sustained drop. that's going to be the question. >> the dollar move against the mexican peso, it's stronger against others. the dollar index itself overall is almost bang on flat and that's an extraordinary position to be in compared to brexit. the dollar almost flat. >> for more on this market reaction, let's get straight to nan deany rah ma krishen in london and in studio michael purv purvis, chief global strategist. if you look at that reaction, clearly markets were not positioned before a trum press temperaturecy and there's been an bit of recovery, where do

a 13.68 and the dow at 19,000, the dollar, the dollar, the dollar. we will do a lot on the u.s. ifications to em. dxy out at new high levels. francine: if you have dollar strength, is it do a tightening for the fed? wirp, 100% probability of a rate hike. you can see stoxx europe flat. pound, dollar, significant euro-dollar, talk about parity for a while, will it happen? will goause of time we to the guest but i love what you did with the fed ramifications, almost certitude. francine: when we were speaking earlier -- 10 days ago, they set of donald trump wins, no fat hike. -- fed hike. victory triggered a selloff in global bonds and emerging-market assets while the dollar rose and we are seeing some of those postelection moves back as investors assess whether they are overreacting to the victory. please to welcome the former first minister of scotland. let me start with you here what is a donald trump victory mean to you? the end of austerity? inequality? how can you explain it, if you can come it means he has a clear mandate to do what? >> nobody knows, the campaign rhetoric empl

day where you go the the dollar index and oil prices going higher at the same time. in. we could focus dollar is bad for the oil prices and you can certainly have times where this reasserts itself. >> thank you very much. abouthear a little bit the banking sector and third-quarter earnings beating program. on the what are they saying about the earnings release this morning? positive setairly and aults getting cheered certain goal of speaking to bloomberg brother in on the phone. he says that the investment bank performed best among the there is the annual costs with the global thatrint and he also says the return on equity target andins a medium-term goal market share it is freeze.planning any pay they started the restructuring through 2011 and he has saved about 40,000 jobs. he says there will be a modest and iap -- headcount drop asked about brexit and the united kingdom exiting will not have a big impact. you have to have a certain global presence for that to be the case. the results could be better than expected and cost cutting is something they are doing successfull

the philippine dollar, for the first time in eight years.asia swung to profit in the revenuearter, with growth. net income was $79 million with factor at 87%. a six-point jump from the same period last year. biggest budget carrier also benefited from a 22% fueltion in its average costs and it made more from its sideline of leasing out its aircraft. at least 74 workers were killed when a power plant collapsed in eastern china. part of a tower crumbled. all but three of the people working on the plant died. two were injured. is missing.on china suffered several fatal recently, accidents blamed on corruption and pressure to boost production, and the slowing economy. seven buildings in welington after the recent earthquake, the city will pull down three properties it owns while the privately owned office block, and an apartment are also unsafe. the 7.8 magnitude quake in new onland's south island november 14 has been followed by aftershocks. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomb

the euro-dollar wi ll fall. lar-yen will that is what the market is shifting to price in, and leslie get a surprise. jon: what do you make of that break down, then? in a risk off environment over the last nine days before yesterday, we still had the market pricing in the probability of a hike around 80% for the month of december. what do you make of that short-term disconnect over the last 10 days? >> i think the theme is just tha t, it is a disconnect. we had extremely strong signals from janet yellen and the fed that they are very close to hiking. and without a surprise, i think we get that in december. remember, we were thinking that fed had an opportunity to go in during the summer. so, the fact they hadn't gone then with this pent up demand in the u.s. economy, growth is strong. it is very much a done deal for december. we have seen probabilities spike as much as 75% for a rate hike in december. the market is super confident the fed is likely to hike in december, unless there is a big surprise. what will be

then you go on to the rubin dollar and you see the recent dollar strength. ng partner index. the arrow in the middle is weakness,re than the pulling the arrow over to the right. you can see that the percentage moves so far at dollar strength -- i would say we are really getting out there from the 1990's. are looking at dxy, i am looking at the bloomberg dollar index. the blue line is the bloomberg spot index, the rate increase in december. just so you know, the red line is the brexit vote, the three-month low on dollar is the circle. and then we go on to the u.s. election. there is a clear correlation, but there is probability priced in now with a possible hike in december. this forfrey yu does ubs, a strategist, particularly making things with foreign exchange as well. thrilled to have you here on a day of the dollar rally. it is a -- is it a brutal dollar move yet? ffrey: can you ever in the context of u.s. inflation president-elect trump saved we do not want a strong dollar? that is just unfathomable for his personality, the evidence that has presented at

the u-s dollar taking out the december 2015 high this week. that strength acting as a wet blanket on ag commodities, weighing heavily on prices this week. our partners are profarmer break it down. grete says the strength of the dollar poses the largest risk on the wheat market, and then corn and cotton. dow jones inudstrial hitting a new high this week, after seven straight days of gains. the rally started after trump secured the victory last consoidation following such a sharp and unexpected rally . federal reserve chair janet yelling saying this week an interest rate hike could come , quote relatively soon. many analysts expecting that rate hike to hit in december, however, some investors now backing away, speculating hte possinility of anot

and the weaker dollar today or at least the pause in the dollar, of course, the one-month high in termsfood prices, copper rose, natural gas rose, so it was materials and commodity driven. if that continues, sure, we can actually continue to see new highs. financials took a pause, but i don't think that is anything more than a pause. and i think if those two sectors continue to lead, i don't think you can go higher. >> because tim, to bring you in here, it is interesting that oil did so well, especially with the dollar. and if it's a little bit pinned on the opec meeting, it doesn't give all that confidence longer term. but maybe it is what stephanie is saying, the broader complex of commodities and picking up on the growth prospects. >> yeah, we have 15-month highs in copper and a lot of the miners have lagged. and if doctor copper is the show of cyclical economy, then we have to catch up. if you want to add some emphasis on why this trade is working, it's a value trade over growth. and you have economic momentum that has been carrying you. remember opec in 2014, this was the opec meet

the story is really the dollar. we will work our way through the day and see if the trade is going to turn out, or whether it turns out to be more sticky. in the meantime let's catch up on what we need to know with the first word news. juliette: guy, thank you. opec's and parking on a last-ditch diplomatic push to reach a production cut. ministers are flying to russia for talks in saudi arabia for the first time, suggesting the organization doesn't necessarily need to curb output. they are due to meet and began on wednesday as they attempt to finalize the terms of the first production decrease in eight years. resident elect donald trump has claimed, without evidence, that the u.s. elections saw fraudulent voting. the populare won vote if millions who voted illegally for hillary clinton are removed. meanwhile, clinton's campaign has joined a push for recounts and four battleground states. trump says that is also fraudulent and called his critics crybabies. china plans to implement sweeping curves on overseas dealmakin

elsa: the canadian dollar. g-term deal remains there are greater opportunities to trade on short-term views. from rbca lignos we break downs -- the fed with steven ricchiuto, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg daybreak." it is 7:30 a.m. on wall street. inching closer, opec ministers and say a deal to cut supply by 1.4 million barrels is closed. with meetings right now underway in vienna. iraq saying opec ministers are unanimous in favor of a cut as the group works to resolve differences among its three biggest producers saudi arabia, iran and iraq. in november to remember commit the trump rally dominated the month. the u.s. dollar at a 13 year high while treasuries had their worst month since 2009. with a rally continue into december? said donald trump plans to nominate him as the next u.s. treasury secretary. wilbur ross confirms he will be trump's pick for commerce secretary. dow jones futures up by .2%. s&p futures around the highs of the session. up, led by energy shares. in other asset cla

sterling is the best performing ther currency against dollar. n data which showed a slight slowdown in inflation. the selloff we have witnessed in the global fixed income 's come to an end, how long will it last? the closes next. -- the close is next. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, this is the european close, i am mark barton with vonnie quinn, the end of the tuesday session, the stoxx 600 up by one third of 1%. that game during the time is 1.3% since the election and oil and gas rising over hope they will be a deal among opec and non-opec members this month to freeze or cut production. estate, utilities gaining today, they have been falling since the election and basic resources, health care, banks rising and they are hauling today. -- falling today. start with german gdp, it rose by a less than forecast .2% in the third quarter, improved by .4% in the fourth quarter, the weakest pace in the year, a reminder of the fragility of the economy in a time of rising uncertainty. the mystic expression drove that .2% increase as both government a

the dollar-yen is going nowhere fast area the dollar is up by 1% against the yen.s crude. it's now off by 3%. david: we start with that story, which is crude. opec is what. they are far apart on an agreement to cut reduction. washington says they would attend the meeting. i ran to examine. iraq says they will be optimistic about a deal coming out of these talks. the dollar rally is stirring up those emerging markets bears. filling comes cabinet, donald trump announced he will nominate tom price for health and human services secretary. david trias is reportedly being considered for secretary of state. there is open in fighting over who should have the post. the general met with the president-elect yesterday. that's what you need to know it is our. alix: oil is off by 3%. joins us from london. what happened? you had oil off by 1.5%. now it is double that. what happened? bill: not a huge amount. i expect traders are waking up to the fact that there has been very little progress. iran,in parties are iraq, saudi arabia. you guys can't take a deal with greenleaf. we are

the u.s. dollartrongest level in almost a year in irvine by expectations president-elect donald trump across the pond, the euro suffering its longest losing streak on record. recall volkswagen will 30,000 jobs globally in a n agreement to come back from the omissions -- the emissions cheating scandal and invest in electric vehicles. three key appointments including jeff sessions for attorney general. all of the updates, who is

do the charts suggest the dollar run is done? we've got a bunch of charts. >> it's a random question. imagine how that works. >> just right over here, magically. so here's the setup. now, it's -- you know, it's fairly well-donned how you work into -- you can call it whatever you want, a triangle, a wedge. it represents the end of a debate. typically, whether it's a stock or currency commodity, you almost starting to quiet and then people bet one way or the other. well, that's what happened. an overshoot, checkback. now what's the next reference point once you come out of that? well, it's the prior tops. all right, so here's the next chart. we are right at the prior tops. now, while some might call it a breakout, the real setup is not just to move aggressively through. you want to back and fill and coil at the high. that gives you the tension for a breakout. so we've returned to a fairly difficult level. i'm thinking it is a bit overdone. and the trade is going to be on the uup. so the uup is not quite at the level -- i think it's

it has driven inflation on the dollar. the political story into what you are thinking with the sterling? >> it is slipping from being too political. the euro, the anticipation is that politics will get much more traction. dollar has become a middle ground in the transition globally towards politics being so dominant in fx. it david: talk about the politics of the euro and angela merkel. for the a real desire german people to have a stronger currency. merkelissue for angela is one for continuity. benefited frome having a weaker currency instead of being in a deutsche market environment. angela merkel by saying she would stay for a fourth term has benefited. that reduces the probability of the euro-dollar going to parity. alix: we have been talking about the dollar. this is the u.s. trade weighted dollar during different presidencies. that big red area is reagan. we saw a big rally as he unleashed his massive stimulus. when bush released his stimulus, it did not have as much of an impact. >> this will be more of the reagan as

let's get to what has been going se, the dollar on a tear. e highest level more than a decade down to the rate hike being a done deal next month. asian currencies bearing the brunt of it, dropping to seven-year lows. our chief economist is with us now, what do you make of this? normally it is better to travel than arrive. are we overshooting? >> the only reason we might overshoot is if you think the dollar has to price in some risk premium because trump might be more erratic in government than the markets are pricing, but if we are reasonably confident that trump will deliver on fiscal promises, applying a large i think thelus, dollars responses reasonable and the response of the interest rate market is reasonable. rishaad: where do we go? >> dollar-yen goes higher, asian currencies have depreciation. the tricky one is across the atlantic. a political risk priced into it. that is going up. rishaad: you're saying people are underestimating those political risks and they're not being priced in at the moment. >> look, there is a scenario under wh

you have the dollar around the lows of the day. rally in about six weeks. that story is about the potential of a trump presidency. gold up $10, bleeding into gold miners, including barrett, newmont, and goldcorp. you have the stronger gold moving filtering through two stocks. of theless, the theme day is still going to be about the safe haven trade, david, as we are just days away from the election. david: indeed. we will turn back to the earnings -- alibaba sales came out today, beating estimates as cloud revenue more than doubled for china's biggest operator of online shopping malls. profits also topped estimates, just a week before singles day -- a big event where they sell a lot of stuff on alibaba. we now go to bloomberg's global tech reporter, selina wang. welcome. they did a bead on global revenue and earnings per share, but it looked like they did better on the earnings and the revenue. selina: they did. they did not report growth merchandise, however. they decided they want this to be an annual metric because i think a big

what does it do to the dollar? what does trump do for the dollar. >> what if trump wins? e first thing we expect is the dollar at position. that depends on how the economy reacts to trump basically. -- theesses it up enough first -- the first instance -- you are right that the dollar is strong but frankly it can be stronger. look at gdp data. the u.s. economy today is probably the highest in terms of value. -- ofey are becoming a sectors if you have then you can have strong exchange rate. [indiscernible] >> when you look at what is happening in emerging markets, right now, it is risk off people are just nervous -- >> but that is a different story meeting the dollar can be very strong. your thatis risk off is a will only make the dollar stronger. we know that. and at some point that will be too much and the markets will react to that but we are not there yet. we're not there yet. >> well, stay with us. we're going to discuss more about as you said globalization under attack. let's check in offers world headlines. g wall investors await the next interest rate hikes policy ha

investors are piling into the dollar. it is strengthening against trading partners like the yuan, the mexican peso and bigger developed currencies like the euro and japanese yen. good morning, derrick. >> good morning. >> why is the dollar strengthening so much. we get the mexican peso and some of the rhetoric from donald trump, but against other big currencies, too. >> i think, you know, first off, the markets have taken a view in terms of the directions of trump policy and perhaps the early days of his administration. there's two clear avenues, one is the fiscal stimulus and domestic spending, the other is the more divisive and less growth positive avenue of trade protection, policies to tackle immigration. i think for now the markets have gone down the first avenue and are focusing on the domestic demand boost to the economy from the tax policies. that really is the story in terms of yields and of course in terms of the dollar. >> it's dominic here. one thing we've been observing in the stock market in the u.s. is the m

the other story has to do with the u.s. dollar and the 10 year yield continues to crop -- continues to climb. still on track now, u.s. treasuries, for their worst month going back to 2009. we have a chart on the bloomberg that shows that. here's the monthly move on the bloomberg barclays treasury index. drop in thisother month as a result of this bond rout. a lot of movement, that's for sure. time now to check in on the bloomberg first word news with courtney donohoe in the newsroom. donaldy: president-elect trump says he will leave his business in total to focus running the country. he will hold a news conference with his children on december 15 to discuss the details. he says he's not legally obligated to hand off his businesses but that it is important to have no conflicts of interest. meanwhile, trump has chosen steve mnuchin to be secretary of treasury. he's a well-known hollywood financier and was bankrolling hits like "avatar." he spoke earlier at trump tower. >> we need to make sure our infrastructure is built for that whe