this is the dollar position. at the start of 2016. the market data suggest we are long, but we are no word near as long on this dollar run as at the start of 2015. , don't forgetions the 181. if you go by that theory, there is still the propensity for this dollar to move in syncopation with where the cash price is. about theeed to talk currency market, the dollar being one of the big stories. the yuan being another. let's talk a bit more about the dollar to emphasize the weakness we've seen overnight. cutting the bullish positions overnight. it's not normal and one .vernight trading session the fed grappling with uncertainties about what the trump policy will mean for the u.s. economy and the stress in the dollar as you mentioned. 35%, you've got to pay 35%. nobody wants to fight the possibility that the chinese are putting up the wall against the dollar yen. to the level we saw december 30. the question is, are they even prepared at seven? anna: how much effort is the chinese government putting into stopping the capital out lows, sto

dollar. theo many factors right now influencing the dollar, not to mention trump talking about the dollar, mnuchin talking about the dollar, border taxes, repatriation, corporate tax reform, trade tensions. all of this impacts currencies. what's the upshot? how do you forecast where the dollar goes next? >> it messes around until we get a clearer story. the rally in the dollar that started the day off to donald trump won the election last november is based on the idea that the u.s. is going to have more accommodative fiscal policy, stronger growth, more rate hikes, more monetary policy divergence with others. so far we heard an enormous amount about trade policy, about unraveling multilateral trade deals. we have not heard the stuff that would be encouraging for the dollar. so we're -- >> wait. can you clarify that? so, trade barriers and trade tensions, that's negative for the dollar? >> it's more negative for the people who suffer most. so trade barriers with mexico are worse for mexico than th

the dollar yen on the screen. moving around 0.5%. the dollar it self down 0.3%. k is available. here are the top stories. manus: it is all about china. we have been covering it for the first 30 minutes of the show. china factory pbi jumping the most -- 5.5%. beating the estimates for the fifth straight month. a shifting of the gears as far global reflation potential and propensity out there. that is a big issue. history shows that it is only a matter of time until we see consistent price increases in china and they show up on the doorsteps here in europe. we are already seeing the likes of that here in the uk. global reflation rate. anna: philip hammond's european tour. he has been dispatched to smooth the brexit process. berlin to attend with angela merkel and the european parliament president. manus: daybreak focuses on bw. the automaker top executives have been warned by lawyers not to leave germany. that as prosecutors prepare to charge more high level german-based executives in the emissions cheating case. the arrest of oliver schmidt in miami caught many exe

the dollar, you can look at the rates, there is a dollars squeeze, yuan squeeze going on. t great news for the emerging markets. are the emerging markets something to step away from in 2017? jonathan: if the dollar carries on being as strong as it was, that would be negative for emerging markets. gentle appreciation, they can live with that. what you know is tax cuts in the u.s., interest rate rises, you will have good gdp growth. those are all positive. is certainlyh positive. what we don't know about is whether they will be this protectionism and how strong the dollar will be. if it only goes up a little bit, that will not be a problem. i suspect there will not be that much protectionism, and so, that does not hinder emerging markets. i would stick with investments in emerging markets because you have stronger growth and lower multiples in terms of valuations. guy: great to see you this morning jonathan. ofathan bell, the cio stanhope capital. just as we were mentioning, this is probably the chart of the morning. this is the overnight deposit rate on the offshore in china

are bullish on the u.s. dollar the fiscal policy to be very stimulative. at the same time, monetary policy will turn more restrictive, and that is usually the combination for a strong currency. shery: you touched on my point there, that the u.s. dollar could actually be in for a have as ittracks -- for a dip tracks policies in the u.s. ande see a delay in reform fiscal stimulus and see the u.s. dollar dipping, should investors by that dip? bei would definitely recommending buying the u.s. dollar on dips. over the next 6-12 months, our view is for the u.s. dollar to make new cyclical highs, primarily because we expect that trump administration to implement their pro-growth inflationary fiscal policy that will force the fed to gnome allies interest rates faster ,han it is currently rejecting interest rate futures in the u.s., and it will underpin a higher u.s. dollar. far, emerging markets absorbing this higher u.s. dollar and higher in just rates in the u.s. pretty well. they are being pretty resilient. are there an

yousef: let us talk about the u.s. dollar. - up 8% having implications with the inauguration of donald trump around the corner and fiscal implications and monetary implications with the federal reserve continuing on its path in terms of hiking rates going forward. let us bring in the managing director of middle east and africa. great to have you back on the show. >> happy to be back. tradingthe u.s. dollar higher on that index. a strong start. how much further does this have to go? some bold calls from citigroup that are saying that we have not seen anything. >> there are many components but there is room for it to strengthen. but the more it strengthens, the more the risks pick up on a global level. very simplistically, it is really bad for u.s. exports that make up so much of the s&p 500. we have already seen the equity markets in the u.s. shift from a exporterfrom a global to a domestic company. the exporters in the u.s. will struggle with the strong dollar is hurting as here as well. we are really feeling it it is hurting o

anus: a personification of what happens next for the dollar and the trump trade. u haven't yen rising by 1%. bloomberg dollar index down by .05%. momentum in the dollar is beginning to end back. if you look on the far side of the screen, copper is up. tunnels in hisnd speech on friday. spending money as a commodity complex. gold is slightly better. european market opening, slightly more risk this morning in terms of momentum. $2 trillion has been added to the value of equities since donald trump won the election and november. how does this transport to the earnings season? what is goingn of on in terms of european stocks is the lowest in almost six years. newsll be the actual around the results of the likes of the main heartland of the income generators in europe that will move the stock price. not necessarily -- that correlation is the lowest in six years. this morning,ter you're seeing that run the curb. does it continue? those markets. everything in terms of stocks to watch. good morning. in all stocks to watch this morning. i picked three to focus on, a couple

prices, or has the money gone? dollarhouse prices in australia up by the most in seven years. what does that mean for the rba? let's see how bond markets are doing. yields are just dipping. herest had stephen gallo talking about what they expect from the fed. two rate hikes. german bond 1.9%. into 2017. the euro will break to parity in the first six months, it will break down 97 by the second half of the year and dollar will trade up at 139. japanese government bonds 0.5%. those are your markets. the first word news. statement chinese has said dollar drop is pandering to irresponsible attitudes. the president-elect accuses china of not stepping in in north korea's nuclear program. trump tweeted china won't help with north korea. korea's leader said his country was close to a ballistic missile. manufacturing rebounded. gdp rose 9.1% in the three months of december from its previous quarter. most double estimated by economists in a bloomberg survey. evaluations should be stable. that is according to china's state informatio

thinking the dollar was gonna a move higher -- we came into the year thinking the dollar was going to move higher. greg: we came on the back of the fed break -- rate hike. we got excited about tax policy changes and other things. , would say that ultimately almost any tax policy change the u.s. banks will be good for the dollar and it will move higher, but people were thinking that is going to happen in the first hundred days, and it is more like july we'll get that bill. let's switch gears and talk about the pound/dollar having a massive day. isolatelittle tricky to because they leaked sunday night as soon huge, hard brexit speech, and they cite the market into thinking there would be something new -- and they were quotes about how they thought the pound was going to take it it ended up surging about 3% -- one of the best days in years. it did not seem like theresa may said anything new here. would we go for the pound here? you know, i would be a seller on this little spike that we got here today could you are right to point out your dollar index was up, 1.5% -- today. you are right

the dollar is offered. it all comes back to last week donald trump talking in the wall street journal and overnight it treasuryews of the secretary nominee. from time to time an excessively strong dollar, may be negative for short-term implications. that is the dollar index. 0.9%. november 11 lows is where we are heading. we have fallen for four straight weeks. i like what stephen englander has said over at city. -- is losing using patience. donald trump moose the fx market to irrational fear -- from irrational fear to irrational exuberance. we are waiting for the supreme court ruling to come in. she is there. she is live outside the supreme court. it is anna edwards. good to see you this morning. this ruling. take me through what it means and the ramifications if the government loses. you very much. we will get to that during the program. we are here at the supreme court. the government will here today from this highest court in the country. rulingl remember that a in november said the government cannot tri

the lire weakens against the dollar. dict we could see double-digit inflation numbers over the next few months. the lire has depreciated 80% against the dollar in 2016. it is the second worst performer. let's talk about the u.s. dollar. it has quite a performance. that has major implications. then you have your monetary implications with the credit reserve continuing. let's take more meat to the conversation. you back on the show. >> the u.s. dollar trading higher. a strong start for the greenback. how much further does this have to go? you have not seen anything. >> there are so many components to it. the more it strengthens, the more the risk will start. it is bad for u.s. exporters. from a global exporter to a domestic company, the exporters are going to struggle. the strong dollar is hurting us here. we are feeling it. it is hurting emerging markets. the strength of the dollar has its risks. scarlet: i put up this chart -- yousef: i put up this chart. this is the magic number. all the way to the latest data point we h

. >> the dollar slipping as well. obal economic data to tell you about, china's services pmi number rising to 53.4, the highest reading in 17 months. the latest evidence of a stronger chinese economy. let's show you what happened overnight in asia. hang high comp did close higher by 0.2%. hong kong, very strong. up 1.5%. the nikkei lower by 0.4%. also watching the chinese currency, big story overnight and over the last 48 hours. the spot yuan, the spot chinese currency in the market closing up nearly 1% against the dollar. that is a very unusually large move. it's helped by gains by the offshore yuan. the real story under the hood is that china is moving and moving in a bigger way than we're used to to try to stem the currency's decline and try to stop the outflows from the country even in the face of what has been a stronger dollar, strengthening the yuan. what happens is that money rushes out of the country tshkc puts pressure on the currency. >> they're moving in a stronger way than people thought. the thought was w

and we also like long dollar versus the canadian dollar. a broad spread, but we think now is a great opportunity to take it, given a lot of this positioning has come out. manus: you mentioned the canadian dollar. has shifted quite dramatically. when you talk about the peso -- but this is, of course -- the hedge funds are bullish again, in this big turnaround. how does that fit with you? >> this is interesting. as i said in my statement, let's broaden this out to equity markets, bond market, and currencies. i'd like to link the commodity book to equity markets, and this is quite interesting. our internal models at bnp, shorter-term, that tells us what is driving currencies at any given point. what it's telling us, screaming at us at the moment, particularly the australian dollar in new zealand dollar have a very high correlation to global equities. my point would be the dow seems to be struggling at these levels. if we do see more fed tightening coming in, if we do see equity markets come off, global equities particularly, the best way to pl

the dollar index reflecting the questioning of the trump trade, more so reflected in the dollar against the yen. the en increasing -- the yen increasing. lows: we are on a one-month , the dollar atmosphere is poor and there is a lack of policy detail. volatility rising two levels we've not seen since 2013. i want to get the war started, that was the line that provoked the mexican peso traders as well. we've got the s&p futures in here to show that health care was one of the sectors that was really on the move during the news conference yesterday. weakness expected for equity markets in the u.s.. a quick line on some breaking news, third-quarter sales from , saying itompany will be 5%. the estimate was 40 are sent. they talk about full your profits facing challenges. of 2.90 6estimate billion. strong numbers from the third quarter there. market,n to the luxury and let's go to first word news. trumpsident-elect donald 's picked for secretary of state has said china must be denied access to the artificial islands it's built in the south china sea. during his confirmation hearing, rex tille

yvonne: when it comes to the class, what will happen with the dollar, you have the fed wanting to raise donald trump with these policies that could continue dollar appreciation. then, he had a comment about the dollar being too strong. can he have both worlds here? should we start pricing in risk? mark: usually when government officials want a currency to do something, it does the opposite. the reason he is saying the dollar should not go up is because there are lots of reasons it should. make america great again, and a weak dollar, they do not go together. yvonne: how much of a low could we see in terms of u.s. markets? what will happen? will it be the first hundred days where you will see this inflation intact? mark: i don't think he will go play golf on monday. i think he will come out guns blazing. the big thing is the taxes. the market could be poised to take another like up -- leg up. i'm optimistic on both. yvonne: a stronger dollar, does this mean that news? we do see some stability with the e.m. front. growth, they don't have as much debt -- has e.m. moved on? mark: every coin

the australian and new zealand dollars are also stronger against the u.s. dollar. e yen the strongest since the dollar.gainst they turned bearish earlier this week. scotia bank says this could push the parent over -- push the pair lower. let's continue with this. , davidurplus numbers ingles is looking into these numbers. just to comment on what sophie mentioned, that is going to become a problem for the japanese economy. if these numbers behind the continue to stay in the red and the yen continues to strengthen -- we have seen a clear correlation between where they yen weakens and how much these numbers improve. let's have a look. a little bit lower than expectations. 1.4 trillion was the monthly surplus. if you look at the adjusted figure, it moves to 1.8. you look at the trade surplus, a little bit higher than expectations. more importantly, it is further evidence that the trend is improving. we always see a drop towards the year end. in the same way that whenever we see march, you see a spike. you look at this back to 2014, it has been on the way up. it has not

usually of the dollar, the u.s.nment tries to talk the dollar up just to keep confidence in it. it is a little unprecedented, but i think it fits with everything he has been saying in terms of wanting to boost the u.s. economy, potentially at the 'xpense of some of the u.s. trading partners. it is a reasonable deal. i do not think it is a big deal. i do not think it will necessarily change anything over the medium-term, but it reinforces the view that he is uncomfortable with the u.s.'s trade relationship with china. >> could he put a cap on where the dollar goes? is this just focus on china? >> i think it part of a package where he thinks the u.s. economy and u.s. manufacture have had a raw deal over the last 20 years or so. he is trying to change that through a mixture of domestic tax and regulatory policy group potentially trade policy, and the rhetoric. -- through rhetoric. i think you would like to limit the rise in the dollar. -- he would like to limit the rise in the dollar. a lot of his policies appear on th

will dry up if the dollar should do that. at the same time, he did maintained a strong dollar isicy of the u.s. -- he trying to play it both ways, one could argue. what is important to remember here is there was a question on onmp using public statements the u.s. dollar. he was asked, are you, as treasury secretary, going to use public statements to influence where the dollar goes? he said as treasury secretary i will maintain the position that a strong and dependable u.s. dollars is in our best interest while recognizing that at times, over the long-term, that mena not be the case. there is a great write up from showingnds here historical data. it shows that the best time of u.s. growth came in the dollar 125. was way above we are at about 100. there is evidence to back it up. julie: many analysts we have talked to say you cannot have the best of both worlds. they think in the short-term the dollar will continue to weekend, but further down the road, are they still expecting dollar strength? >> yes, and it comes from the the

the lafrentz. la france. dollarting squashed on those comments by admonition that you and matt were talking about. look at the swiss franc and the aussie dollar, we are just dolling just jumping off of those blows. far right hand side you see commodity compacts are dead. oil is up in terms of compliance. goldman sachs talks very specifically about an upturn on global activity. the impact of china's stimulus through the first half. a physical object across the globe. what is need for global growth for protectionism? is the end of capitalism? that is the question on daybreak. parliamentarians get more of a say. is it due to the great brexit debate, does it make a hard brexit? lowest ever since the 1980's on the pounds. bob said you're still going to see a slight probability of a higher pound in the very near-term versus the people who are saying we are nowhere near pricing it. here's a lovely one in terms of a long-term chart. this is euro-sterling. there is your crash on the far left. again, the market is trying to r

we saw a slightly weaker dollar in terms of the u.s. dollar index. u can see that again this morning. it's on the mix. definitely a weaker tone. we'll see if any of the trade talk or anything else seems to be influencing that. look at gold. this is not really the kind of environment where gold will tend to perform. under $1200 an ounce. adding to those modest losses. >> it's interesting that the dollar is continuing its weekly run of losses. >> yeah. >> feels like bonds are more in charge. bond yields tick higher. stocks follow suit. you did see the losers in yesterday's session were the utilities, consumer staples, telecom, rate-sensitive stocks. >> pro cyclical groups were up there. >>> president trump taking the first step towards building a wall along the mexican border. he signed two executive orders yesterday initiating a series of actions to curb illegal immigration and begin construction of the wall. and add more border patrol and i.c.e. agents. the orders will cut off federal money to so-called sanctuary cities. >> we will be in a form be rei

all of that meant that the dollar had a tough day. >> it was back to the weak dollar, low yields, f.a.n.gstocks back in vogue. apple sort of breaking out. is that going to be the trend? was it just a minor pullback to what has been a dominant trump rally? in asia overnight, china's central bank guiding the yuan stronger against the dollar again. fastest pace in a decade. the peoples bank of china has been trying to support the currency amid concerns of capital outflows. there's the chart of the chinese yuan this has people all over the world alarmed at the scale and scope of what must be happening in terms of the outflows and how china has moved so briskly and sharply to plug the hole of the capital outflows, and whether this is a stop-gap measure and signals something deeper is wrong, or whether this is just a correction of what we've seen over the past 12 months, a 7% decline in the currency. >> the highs were hit overnight. the reason we're seeing that chart, the dollar is stronger today and the yuan is weaker it has come off the lows or the highs it did see. 3% move in a space of thre

the dollar-yen is 150.96. give clues on trade or fiscal policy and the light question mark the pound at 121.56. what do they say about where the pound could go on a hard brexit scenario and what pricing? we will discuss that shortly. we are expected soon see weaker at the start of trade. a lot going on politically in the united states of be aware of that. let's get you caught up on the first word news create russia poses a danger to the u.s. and must be held accountable for its actions, that is what president-elect donald trump's nominee for secretary of state will tell senators at his confirmation hearing later today. rex tillerson's omar remarks are a sharp departure from comments from trump. trevor -- treasury yields will signal the end of the three decade long rally. in his webcast the ceo of double line capital said "if we take a bullin 2017 it is market, rest in peace." bill gross has a different threshold. he says in an investment outlook released earlier the treasury is above 6% and spells the end of th

the dollar paring earlier losses. said to meet with the ceos of detroit's big three automakers at 9:00 a.m. eastern today as he looks to persuade the manufacturers to keep production in the u.s. david: the president yesterday met with ceos and made it pretty clear that he intends to impose a border tax on any company that moves its jobs offshore. >> a company that wants to fire all of its people in the united states and build some factory someplace else and thinks that product will just blow across the border into the u.s., that is not going to happen. they will have a substantial border tax. -- we we are joined by will hear from the auto executives. what will they be talking about with respect to this border tax? >> president trump talked about the border tax yesterday. we can expect him to talk about the same tax today. he is trying to pressure u.s. automakers to keeping jobs in the unites states. this united states. we are expecting him to say the same thing. if they keep their jobs here in the u.s., they can expect

the brutal dollar move? i'm not sure about the brutal dollar move but there is an understanding from the policies that have been proposed could lead to a strengthening of the dollar and that may not necessarily be welcome. they have to work out exactly what they want to focus on and i think it is something that is going to be debated internally over the next few weeks. francine: what about labor participation. tom, while you were probably still sleeping, we had a conversation with randall. this is labor participation under different presidents, democrats and republicans. we brought it back to the 1950's. randall: we really started to participation take off 1960's and 1970's. that was largely from women entering the labor force. they came in the labor force during world war ii and then stepped out of the labor force and then the baby boom and then women came back into the labor force and then things flattened out in the 1990's where it flattened out. we have seen a significant decline from prime age males drop

here's a quote about the dollar. the strength of the u.s. llar, but coal being the single biggest factor. >> i think the bar was pretty high for what csx had to deliver in terms of where the stock is. if you look at the stocks way up on a high purge giving a lot of credit for a comeback to growth in 2017. so i do think you're going to see a lot of ceos not just point out 2016 has dollar head winds. going ahead from here. if the dollar gets much stronger it will be a continued issue. on a year over year basis it's not that dramatic. it depends what other currencies you're dealing in. >> also looking here a couple different ratios. operational ratio, merchandise piece of it. you know, the bottom line earnings that were being here to have the transports having a horrendous day. they had run up quite a lot. what signals do you take from this, if any? >> the biggest signal i take really is if you look at what happened, as was mentioned earlier when reagan came into office, and, granted, it was a different scenario, we were in a recession at that t

-- offset that by the stronger dollar. stronger? put 5%. -- 25%. alix: why don't we get what we had under reagan? martin: other countries around the world got burned by having the wrong kinds of external debts before. they don't do that now. they will not be heavily indebted in dollars. those who made the mistake of being heavily indebted in dollars will be hurt by the stronger dollar. in general, we will not see those kinds of adverse effects. this would ramp up inflation and would reduce gdp growth. martin: that is because they don't get the dollar effect. they are just wrong. if you say, what is the effect of putting a tax on imports? it raises prices and pushes up inflation. at the same time, what is the effect of a stronger dollar? it lowers prices of imports and stops the inflation affect. it is a complicated impact. proposalnow any tax that has been as misunderstood as the border tax adjustment. martinmany thanks to feldstein. a two-day slump for the u.s. dollar, given oil prices a boost. there's a 22saying month lo

the dollar index down 1%. adp figures this morning a disappointing outlook to friday's jobs report. coming in less than forecast. it does not typically mirror the jobs report exactly. that is helping the euro. it is strengthening today by quite a bit, almost 1%. ,he yen is trading below 116 1.5% stronger thanks to the weakening u.s. dollar. 1%,s&p 500 down 3/10 of dragged down by retailers. we got some disappointing news from kohl's, macy's and other retailers including urban outfitters with a halo effect. that is tracking some major indices lower. crude accrued -- the surge. that is putting a little bit of a dent into the building prices for crude we saw a earlier today. brent crude at 56.17. , you mentioned the offshore and onshore yuan and the difference between them. that is 10 big figures. getting wider. how much of it is due to tightening liquidity conditions in hong kong. don't forget the mexican peso. that the 21.45. it will intervene all day long if necessary. let's check on the bloomberg first word n

it relates to the discussion we had on the dollar. eed other countries to get their act together. joe: i want to follow up on that point. when you look around the world and see countries that need to get their act together the what are you referring to? who needs to do what? potentialis way below . it is also over reliant on monetary policy. germanyiscal room in and it has need for structural reforms. second would be japan, third would be china. you said the u.s. economy no longer lives in a cyclical space. his medicaid is with all of these economies? including china which faces its own structural headwinds. >> absolutely. are no longerues limited to the developing world. they have become an issue for the developed world. we invested in the wrong growth model. we over relied on finance a decade ago and we have to figure out genuine engines of growth. joe: do you get the impression that policymakers are internalizing these things and prepared to do what it takes or is this just going to be more talk and back here with the same frustrati

what will be driving the dollar is loose fiscal, tight money, strong dollar and protectionism. >> the slow down its path of interest rate hikes, that could calm the dollar down. >> if the dollar is going to be strengthen excessively, the fed might hike rates slower than otherwise. if you have a fiscal stimulus that pushes the dollar much higher, that will lead to a situation which will be hurting manufacturing. the fed will have to go more slowly. but inflation may rise if it is seen as excessive and it will force the fed to tighten more than the markets are currently expecting. trade arguments aside what is your view on china? there's a feeling i think that this year compared to last year that asia is not an issue in 2017. u.s. markets are relaxedmarket. what do you think? >> if there's a slowdown of growth, they'll do what they have done the next few years, more bad assets, more bad debts, more leverage, so the chinese are talking about structural reform, but because of political strengths they're not doing it. that's good for the short run, but in the medium term it means a harder

you can look at it versus a basket, the trade weighted dollar, explain to us why the trade weighted dollar dollar. >> it is the whole ball of whacks. if you're looking at the point thanew of economics rather currency trading, which you care about is the buying power of the dollar with regard to other currencies, and not just one or two, but the entire group of currencies we do business in, so you want to include the chinese and then mexican peso, some of the smaller currencies in the feds brought index, but not in the major currency index. oliver: up next, how home and television beat cnn last year. plus, the alarming fallout from declining attendance at college football games. ♪ oliver: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek". i am oliver renick. companies and industries section, how hdtv is dominating cable to the ocean without news, a-list celebrities, or sports. we talked with jeffrey smith. formula theya stuck to since 1994. basically, an old house, they fix it up, and a happy couple walks in and that is their new , or they have shows like flip or flop. repetitions.about it is intere

also the japanese currency, the dollar against the yen, the dollar in retreat against yesterday's sessionjapan has now to 14 month run. goldman sachs talking about who has the most currency wise in terms of exposure to donald trump, south korea and the taiwanese dollar. fourth-quarter gdp came in ahead of what the market had expected. exuberanceional driven by financials and the oil and gas companies? that is the debate. weaker than estimated inflation data out of australia. president donald trump plans to unveil actions on national security today, including steps toward building a wall on the next in border and admitting refugees close to the u.s.. the mexican peso fell on the news. prospect formp theet director says national debt needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. he also said he would push trump to break his campaign promises and cut social security and medicare. in his confirmation hearing he told senators without doing something soon, the medicare and social security trust find could go bankrupt. more than $284 million in bonuses, stock holdings and other investment thro

the dollar is weakening. l be covering those stories and many others, with the rest of bloomberg markets asia. what have we got. >> huge news out of the u.s. they opted out of the transpacific trade deal. years in the making. we will be discussing the winners and losers out of the u.s.. will trump replace the tpp with er trade deals. also, the u.k. supreme court rules on whether triggering brexit needs parliamentary approval. 11 judges ares 11 giving out their verdict on that. and what that means for theresa may as she moves forward with her plans for brexit. what is the likelihood of the amendment if it does have to go through parliament? also, we will discuss european stocks because according to goldman sachs, they performed well over u.s. stocks. we will be discussing that. all of that, coming up on n "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪ >> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." donald john trump was sworn in as the 45th president of the united states to date. an estimated 800,000 people gathere

the dollar could get to strong but we are not there yet. the great recession we saw a weak dollar. this helps drive the external sector. this is an important pillar of growth. now the important pillar of growth is the consumer. a strong dollar is beneficial to the consumer because it helps increase their buying power. write out with where the dollar is it is not too strong. if it went up significantly higher could be a concern but you're not going to follow through with strong growth without having a strong dollar. >> insofar as the market is reacting to comments like the and the dollarng is high, the fear in the market is that instead of having a ,oherent plan, a fiscal plan you are going to have no physical plant but you are spending time poking at china or mexico and complaining that the dollar is high in their cheating. at the end of the day you do not end up with anything. specificallytalk about china as if there is not a third, fourth, or fifth lower cost producer out there that would take china's place, the more markets are worried th

you'll see the dollar run. ybe see yields react to it and the s&p should move higher. >> i like guy's call talking about the inauguration. everyone's set up to sell it. everyone is set up to sell the inauguration. i think everyone sat on their hands today. it was a very boring day other than we're waiting and waiting and everything on mnuchin. so we're sitting there and you look at the dollar. it was boring then all of a sudden everything was hitting the fan at the same time. guys were selling financials. buying energy. for me i think you really have to pace yourself and next week you could see pep start to get their ducks in a row and start to say, now we got to go back to work. the market won't break. i think still the market moves higher. >> this is just in from ken's show, our friend, the past five inaugurations of a new president are not historically good days. the dow is down an average of 1.3%. tratding negatively 80% of the time. and a week after the inauguration the market's tend to rebound so it's a on

the aussie dollar is getting a nice boost from the chinese pmi numbers. >>> the dollar strength a continuing story here kicking off the new year by making its biggest one-day gain in two weeks that continues the 2016 momentum that saw the dollar post a fourth year rise in a row for the first time in over 30 years. let's get back to germany stretch from cibc. you think the dollar bull run is coming to an end. but when? >> i think we're pretty fully valued. i think markets have become excited about the prospect of additional fed tightening after that fed decision in december. we have the fiscal expansion that's expected in the trump presidency as well. there may well be a case of fiscal expansion not quite as robust or dynamic as people hope or expect and maybe the fed being more circumspect than markets are hoping. it's a case of probably in the first half of this year we'll see dollars up and the trend running out of momentum. >> when you trade the dollar, what are you looking out for in terms of donald trump's stimulus plan. there's the tax side and the infrastructure boost which he pledged

the dollar took off, oil is lower at the moment. i need get to phil flynn, our oil guy. put on your dollar hat, too. we're looking at headwinds at the moment, interesting. >> we are, janet yellen saying the economy is big enough to put the big boy pants on, start raising rates. people view this as political. under the obama administration, they did nothing but cut rates, cut rates, and, of course, donald trump has been very critical of janet yellen. one must wonder if there's a little political element to her statements. listen, i agree with her, i think the economy is well timed. we need to start raising interest rates but donald trump has trouble with the rising dollar. >> but donald trump also has feld that they were out of emergency state and needed to see rates rise. he was happy with janet yellen not raising rates, now saying the runway is clear, let's go, and completely unintended effect on the dollar because yesterday the dollar hit a six week low when he said it was too strong. >> he may be saying be careful what you ask for janet yellen, i'm going to give you th

the currency board, the dollar is falling and the euro up against the dollar as is the pound.ier sterling fell below -- earlier sterling fell. i will leave you with the bond board. an appetite for risk today, yields rising in the u.k., germany, and italy. the close is four minutes away. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, this is the european close. stocks finishing up this tuesday session, basic resources leading , travel andr falls leisure also up with utilities -- down today. a week ago the stoxx 600 entered the bull market territory, it has not been plain sailing since then. this is these that of the day which i'm excited about because i love stats, 11 days in a row, the game that the ftse -- gain that the ftse has enjoyed and nine days of records which is a record in itself. i will not say anything else because we will talk about it later. , thethat time, the 11 days ftse is up by 3.4%, helped in no small part by the weaker -- let's talk about william morrison, one of the biggest supermarkets, shares of 3.8% profitraising its forecast after posting its growth -- best c

as the dollar still in the cross hairs? it is a lazy proxy trade for china to be frank. : feeling lazy friday clearly. [laughter] themain justification is australian dollar is commodities and china. i am sorry but that is not play well. trade?what is the smart ken: it is just picking your moments. realistically, i think being cautious of what the commodity bubble is doing and you have to acknowledge the vast majority of the commodities in the last couple of months is purely speculative rather than fundamentals. if you're willing to say that that is probably not a bad idea. manus: you might say a rally in crude? marcus: you might. you. good to see director and cio at acumen management. manus: a bloomberg business flash. julia is with us. happy friday. juliette: boeing has won an order for 205 planes from indian budget airlines spice jet. jetseal includes 100 building on an existing order for 65. they have the option to buy 50 more including white bodies. the order is worth $22 billion. nintendo shares fell in tokyo trading after announcing details of its new gaming console

the bloomberg dollar index. dline before election strengthening of the dollar index and the weakening of a lot of other currencies. we are back to the trendline. many strategists saying if you think this the end of the reflation trade, think again. others in saying this was an overcrowded trade. the strong dollar will continue because yields will continue higher. particularly when the market begins to concentrate on the actual policies. -- can see that chart mark: if ever there was a time to do that chart, that was it. pete of the time. that's beautifully timed. you know tradition, kevin. first-timers get the victory. , i will be tough -- next time, i will be tough. i love your chart and i love lead . big news just breaking. mexico's president saying he will not attend next week's meeting with donald trump. donald trump yesterday saying he will build a border wall. the dollar rising against the mexican peso today. we will continue to focus on this story on bloomberg.com." -- on "bloomberg markets." this is bl

the u.s. and having a strengthening u.s. dollar consistent with that message, if we look at it currency. that has moved dramatically in the last few weeks and terms of dollar-yen has provided exports competitive advantage for the japanese economy which is the opposite to the message he would like to proceed, that will be the interesting juxtaposition of the policy agreement that his policies theoretically could be implying a stronger dollar but that makes it more difficult to translate that into his policy platform. the i like how you go to strong dollar, extraordinary interviews to start the year with abby joseph cohen wing, nouriel roubini, none has been more interesting, lawrence summers, the fourth u.s. treasury secretary, the professor at harvard, larry summers was scathing yesterday on bloomberg "surveillance." here he is on the president-elect and uncertainty. >> a moment of a extraordinary thertainty to extend markets not to appreciate, there are prospects that things could work out well at least for some but there are enor

context,chin put saying this is a long-term view about the u.s. dollar. fortunes of 1%, this is the move you should be focusing on. capitalsupported by the inflows, tracy. tracy: yes, you think about the strong dollar. actually the dollar is basically flat for the year. it's down a little bit. absolutely. definitely concern about the sustainability of this rally if you look at the dollar index and how it has performed. the rally has been incredible, but the likes of citigroup still think you have not seen anything yet. there's still plenty more to come. all right, this will be a theme in our show. let's check in on the first word headlines. donald trump has attempted to bury the hatchet with the u.s. intelligence community. he assured cia staff of his strong support on saturday and said he would unleash them to defeat isis. he rejected the notion he had been in a feud with the cia over its investigation of the russian government hacking of the presidential campaign. yousef: british prime minister theresa may will be the first foreign leader to meet preside

what are the indications for euro-dollar? w days led by china unusually is an awful lot of consensus trades. there seem very material correction from conditioning. that correction may run for a few days or weeks. led by china. when we look back in a month or the corrections we're seeing in the last two or three days will be seen as exactly that, and ongoing trend. the outperformance of the dollar is a thing we will come back to. led by the ongoing theme of policy diversions. manus: three months -- is there of a shortage of dollars outside the united states? is that going to be exacerbated if you see a home line to the latteram: question, very much so. having just gone through year and, liberty changes quickly read -- but on your letter budget, the market is under pressing as it did in 2005 when we had a very similar tax holiday for u.s. overseas earnings. the tendency to dismiss this as an impact on the dollar area think that is one of the policies that is underpricing of the moment. reducing the material impact during oversea

companies. >> the tradition in the united states has been that nobody talks about the dollar except theecretary of treasury, and he's allowed to say one thing, we support a strong dollar. now those words probably won't be used by the secretary of treasury as much as previous secretaries have said that. steve mnuchin is someone i do know. he's done a good job in the private sector. a good partner at goldman sachs, i expect he will impress a number of senators. >> what about the comments from wilbur ross yesterday, upping the ante in competition with china. >> i don't expected there will be a long trade war or anything like that. that's not something that we should unduly worry about. >> what is the upshot for you and your business and dealmaking for 2017. sounds like you're pretty optimistic. >> the u.s. economy is in reasonably good shape. we have good signs ahead of us. some change, is that the president will make will probably be helpful with the business. business is optimistic about dealmaking and other things that we hope to do. >> top sector picks? >> energy will rebound. energy s

is thator the the dollar is too high. s that are talked about may materialize, it may be a stronger dollar. francine: what is your prognosis for the rand at the moment? in a way, the way in which we look at the influx of a stimulus,.s. fiscal the channel that we look that were very similar to those of the normalization of u.s. monetary policy and that it would lead to an appreciating dollar, which would lead to a realignment and exchange rates. side, a policy perspective of what we would then be watching is whether the depreciation of the currency fits itself into a domestic press formulation. the situation got complicated by the recent agreement by opec because that meant the oil price also began to rise. a combination of higher oil prices and an appreciating dollar leads to the depreciation of emerging market currencies. food prices now, which are rebounding from their historic lows, a combination of those leads to a challenging environment for monetary policy. francine: give me a level. what is the level of the rand-dol

the dollar takes a pause. 's been since donald trump was elected after fed minutes signaled uncertainty over where the economy is headed under the new administration. the chinese offshore yuan posted its biggest two-day gains on record as the central bank moved to curtail outflows and the overnight lending rate soared. is there more yet to come? the grinch steals macy's christmas. macy's reported disappointed holiday sales cutting an additional 2200 employees from the payroll, confirming it will be closing 100 stores nationwide. but mine competitors continue to thrive. that is what you need to know at this hour, jonathan. china,n: beginning with we want to talk about that specifically with the offshore yuan. this is the offshore overnight deposit rates. there are two big spikes. one of them from last year and another overnight, flying high, squeezing the currency and pushing the overnight rate. is it going to change anything? >> i think that those authorities are trying to get a handle on what's going on, but a

the dollar just sinking. guess the trump comments during the inauguration, perhaps the speculations about trade wise. >> it has been a strong rally for stocks, up for the s&p and the question now is we need see some specifics, policy behind the actual action. a lot of money has move under to stocks and there's a lot of optimism. we heard from policy makers on the economic front. now we need to figure out how it's all going to work. quickly, let's show you gold because it has been on a stronger run. it has boosted gold for four weeks in a row. >>> president trump's first 100 days in office kicking off. he will have talks soon with leaders of canada and mexico and begin renegotiating the nafta trade pact. that was a central promise of president trump's campaign and he's scheduled to meet with teresa may this friday and disdecusa potential trade pact. >>> 4:30 p.m. eastern time the senate foreign relations will send a vote on president trump's pick to lead the state department. rex tillerson to the senate flor. j

the dollar is in the driver seat.s bloomberg. ♪ david: this is bloomberg. one of the biggest names in is weighing again on brexit while the former ceo deutsche bank has a new job. erik schatzker has talked to him. erik: it has been an awfully journey 18 months ago and it is clear with this job that as president at cantor fitzgerald that he has wanted to stay in the game. lots of guys have wanted to stay in the game. bob dimon wanted to stay in the game. they chose a different path. they chose to do something on their own. has gone perhaps to one of the small number of firms where he could still have a career at a wall street firm. the reason for that is that there is no regulator on the planet -- and i'm sure you'll agree on this that would have jain work for a global sify. there is no way because he bears all if not some of the responsibility of $10 billion in fines that deutsche bank paid for selling toxic some private mortgage debt. -- subprime mortgage debt. david: president is a great title, but it also says he i

weaken the dollar? l, i think for all trump policy to work, you do need a weaker dollar, but the drive high in the u.s. dollar has not been about trump. since 2014, it has been the cost of capital, the cost of the marginal u.s. dollar, the cost of the dollar you need for funding in the u.s. has been on an ever steady rise in terms of cost. it today, we have negative liquidity in dollar terms, in terms of dollar funding, and that is what has been dictating the dollar moved higher, not the policies of trump. technically, we are on the fifth wave and we could see another tick higher, but it is essentially, for the reason that needs a weaker-- dollar to substantiate the large increase we have seen but also note that j&j yesterday was coming out against pointing to the fact that their earnings were actually seeing huge headwinds from the dollar, translation risk into the u.s., so it is clearly an issue even with the federal reserve which mentioned that one of the downside risks to this scenario was a stronger

so the dollar absolutely front and center, impacting commodity markets. equities negative yesterday. a positive start could the on the cards today. here is juliette saly. juliette: thank you. china's exports remained subdued last month as weak level demand weighed on sales. overseas shipments in december fell 6.1% in dollar terms while imports rose more than 3% to leave a $41 billion trade surplus. the world's largest exporter faces more challenge this year as it braces for potential trade friction with the u.s. haspeople's bank of china asked some banks to stop processing cross-border yuan balance until they inflows and outflows. according to people familiar with the matter, the directions require the lenders to show that the amount of outgoing yuan matches the sum that comes in. that comes as authorities step up a campaign to curb a record amount of money leaving the nation. fiat chrysler closed more than 10% lower in u.s. trading after it was accused of cheating on diesel emissions. the u.s. environmental protection agency says software was put in certa

this is when it comes to the dollar. what we have seen in the aftermath is a rally in the dollar. now we are starting to see a little bit of sideways trading at a little bit of that positioning being unwound. it does speak to what we were talking in the previous set, the long-term versus the short-term time horizons for investors. we have seen and unwind of that dollar on short treasury trades. vonnie: can i come back to you, tenet? aluminumlking about prices, they are rising even though china is putting out plenty. what is the thinking behind the price of aluminum prices? tina: there could he and inflow of infrastructure spending. there is concern about section is him. we saw a recently court case go into the wto asking for more protection to get dumping by china. that follows a lot of the court cases that have not on. you see a much more protectionist standpoint. underst recent thing came the obama administration but nobody expects that to be curtailed by the new administration. vonnie: i want to play a sound bite that