that will keep downward pressure on the dollar. if the fed cracks with two more hikes this year, it's ok, but it's not good for the dollar. manus: what is going to be the key driver? this is what we are looking at. we are looking at the first yearly loss since 2012. let's have a look. a dismal dollar is the title on this. where do you stand? i look at bloomberg estimates, 2% lower by 2018 is the median estimate. the most bearish is down 5.5% the fed isn't going to drive the dollar. how low can she go? a net inflowe get of capital into the u.s. in 2018? the answer is probably not. is economic -- of this tax package is ridiculous. then we look at repatriation fx, ambiguous. not just one way flows. the third, we don't underestimate u.s. fiscal --. what we saw in alabama could be a precursor in how tricky or type u.s. policy will be next year and the fourth and most its stasis as an investment currency, especially when you look at the bright spots in the rest of the world. investors are more likely to put money in these goldilocks grow

the dollar cannot get out of its own way. that's a sign that there's further downside in the u.s. ar >> peter, thank you very much for joining me >> thank you >> peter boockvar. that is it for "worldwide exchange." a quick check of futures, pointing higher. they slipped a bit over the course of the show the dow unp 63 points, was up 80 points "squawk box" comes up next >>> ready, set, hike the dow soars to an all-time high after the fed raises rates and signals more hikes to come ten-year at 2.40. >>> a deal in d.c., lawmakers reach an agreement on a sweeping tax overhaul plan. a live report from washington straight ahead. >>> and d day for disney the media giant expected to officially announce it will buy parts of 21st century fox. it's thursday, december 14, 2017 we're quickly approaching another type of d day for all of us that need to get the gifts ready. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps this is "squawk box. >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live in the nasdaq market site in times square why are we playing

are going down ultimately it was a big year about the dollar the dollar closed today 40 basis points, down 1.34 percent this week the fed just hiked, we just passed a fiscal bill we got all kinds of enthusiasm in the business community. it's quite shocking. and really, i think this is a bit of a head fake i don't think the dollar goes to 98 immediately in the new year, it may not but i do think the dollar is oversold here. >> so a bounce in the dollar, and what happens in u.s. stocks? >> u.s. stocks are going to bounce with the dollar or the global stocks. ultimately you'll get a major shot as a guy who has been investing globally for 20 years, the fundamentals around the world look extraordinary europe will grow in 2018 ultimately the euro will be stronger by the dollar by the end of the year. it's a great environment, valuation-wise it comes down to that, and eps growth europe and emerging look better. >> the dollar can cut both ways. obviously if you have a lot of international sales, if you have a weakening dollar, things can look better. we often tal

the yen up 1% against the dollar over the course of this week. rns, whether or not we will see u.s. tax reform push through. certainly a stronger yen pushing down japanese equities. weakness in the hong kong session, nearing toward the end of the morning session, down 0.9%. only a couple markets higher. new zealand closed out the session firmer by 0.33%. recovering after options expiring yesterday. we see aluminum in shanghai looking good, along with copper. gold is firmer, as well. wti up by 0.25%. china, the biggest lag when you look at percentage change on the index. down by almost 10% in hong kong after that $1 billion share placement. to the upside, i mentioned korean stocks rebounding. pretty much recovering what was lost yesterday. let's look at stocks we are watching the session today. particularly on the main china benchmark index. we have had news china unveiled a three-year plan to boost development in the artificial intelligence agency. you cai providers rising sharply. they are saying video surveillance and finance are among sectors i

the u.s. dollar we cpifrom this week is weak and they are focused on the inflation downgrade and the response on the inflation side in the u.s.. from the federal reserve, they expect positive growth from fiscal. i do not think that will translate into dollar strength. if you get a fed that will tie in more than two times or three times next year as a function of potential fiscal stimulus, it is not noteworthy at this point for the u.s. dollar to trade anymore on the fiscal theme. alix: it seems the u.s. dollar does like trading with trump's approval rating. this chart tracks that. the blue line is the bloomberg dollar index in the white line is the real clear politics. approval poll in theory, they tend to move with each other. lisa: fascinating. alix: what we see as the dollar index is holding up but the approval ranking. what do you make of the cap. -- gap? mark: part of it is a have a limited time series that we have about one years with the data. we would like to see a longer-term trend have a de

we are looking at a nearly 9% decline for the bloomberg dollar index, the worst ever for the dollar index and the worst sense ratess the fed is raising which should support a higher dollar but now not seeing that. interesting to see how it plays out. the last two times we saw a decline, with the exception of 2013, another decline and perhaps we will see more weakness in the dollar in 2018. one sector down today, second were sector is the banks, down all week. jpmorgan higher on the week actually but weakness. on the year, a different story, banks are higher. energy and telecom are lower but the banks up about 20% with investors wondering whether that trend will continue next year. is for ther financials in the overall market. shery: a lot of optimism over the tax reform. thank you, abigail doolittle. it was the year of record highs and rallies as investors finally got a much awaited tax bill near the end of the year. look at function g #btv 4223 with the s&p 500 on track for a 20% increase this year. theistory is an indicator, game today does not have to be tomorrow's pain. after calendar

the dollars year in meltdown has accelerated. 16 major currencies are in the kurds is headed for its steepest decline in more than a decade. let's go to singapore. mark, it's a simple trade is to come of this year. next year, dollar down, come -- come -- commodities up. that's exactly what going on is been going on for a few days. it will likely extend into the early part of next year. people are focusing on the fact of the u.s. has a large trade deficit. u.s. infants -- interest rates have been rising and are not helping the u.s. dollar go up. what can drive the dollars higher rates can do it? looking to next year, it's becoming a problem for the ecb to maintain this negative rate policy. they are where it will be too long until they have to start changing their language and telling people when they're going to move ahead and go back to some kind of normalization policy themselves. that's a very -- very big factor. right -- ratethe hiking also sells they will be joined by other central banks next year and it will be a negative f

the yen, the aussie, the new zealand dollar. the currencies expected to underperform the dollar. nejra: with the yield curve, janet yellen said don't fear the yield curve flattening. we have seen the bloomberg dollar index tracking it. moving lower along with it. is the yield curve going to steepen? >> it is a function of a couple of things. the shord end and the long end. we expect two more rate hikes from the fed and expect treasury yields to hit higher from here. not really significant dynamic. clients seem to think we'll be heading fla flatter from here. that has correlated with what has been happening with the dollar more broadly. it could be seen as one of the negatives for the dollar going forward. nejra: our guest stays with us on "surveillance." up next, dissent in japan. we talk monetary policy as a member of the b.o.j. board calls for more stimulus. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: bloomberg's "surveillance." that's what you're watching. i'm nejra cehic in london. in japan, calling for more stimulus has prompted the b.o.j. to flag risks for additional easing. according to pe

the kiwi dollar, not a great deal of change. productivity in new zealand and reduce inequality with programs put in place by the new government, contributing to lower forecasts in new zealand. let's take a look at how the markets are trading in reaction to this and other headlines. david ingles with a look at the open. a good starting point, let's get started with the kiwi dollar, an intraday chart. have a look at the today. the picture across currencies, a massive drop in the u.s. dollar against asian fx. this is a kiwi-greenback you are looking at. we are back above $.70 for the first time since october. it jumped above that level, right at that decision, when that came out. broader picture looking like this. somewhat more momentum coming through the equity markets. australia is up for a sixth straight day. software, industrials leading by 0.4%. japan, pressure because of the stronger japanese currency. today, but compared to this time yesterday, stronger levels on the japanese currency. one stock we are watching closely in ja

yet, the dollar still weekend. rest of the world playing catch-up with the u.s.. europe is looking much healthier. the ecb is still on track to normalize its policy stance. other central banks are looking to raise rates and tighten policy, so it is not a story of the u.s. just standing out anymore. it is around those relativity is, kind of nevenarrowing. betty where do you stand on tightening, peter? the market consensus as well for the three hikes in 2018? peter: yeah. at nomura, we have a rate hike this month, and then we have got three more from the fed next year and one final one in the early stages of 2019, so we still see a few more in the pipeline, but again, it is more the kind of impulse we are getting from other central banks. if you look back at even the dollar trend, it really started when the fed kind of had a toime shift and shifted tapering its asset purchases. not necessarily the rate hike. we are expecting that kind of dynamic to continue to come through in the euro and also even in sterling. we ha

we do have the dollar and the dollar index. what a showing is that since june, we've seen markets and somem the dollar saying it will be most beneficial for the em currencies. that trend is set to continue. that is currently the situation and the predictions for 2018 four emerging-market currencies. the trend is your friend. let's get the first word news with paul allen. china's most powerful figures meet in the new year to discuss the first amendment to the constitution since 2004. details -- no details on changes but saying the decision was made on wednesday. the constitution was first adopted in 1982 and has been revised four times since the commonest party central committee reviewed -- will review amendments later in january. hedge funds may be the big losers on some investment returns in china. it takes effect on january 1 and is part of a broader shift in the companies pay tax. the world's second -- in the world's second-biggest economy. chinese hedge funds are already under official scrutiny. neutral funds are partly exe

risk,e of this downside to the u.s. dollar fed can deliver more rate hikes without tightening financial conditions as much. so this means most areas of u.s. financial markets looks susceptible to selling off, particularly for the balance sheet. matt: when you talk about dollar assets, i think about, for example, -- sorry, e.m. dollar-denominated debt. peter: with there being less upside to the dollar, it could start -- they could still be in an ok situation, but i'm thinking about investors who have been long the dollar and dollar assets. they will be looking for a substitute. i think they will be looking much more closely at european more., looking a bit one of the best ways to be long the dollar, if you have to be long the dollar, by japanese assets and swap them into dollars using a swap. then you get pickup using treasuries. that is one thing. another thing, if you are an international investor, the cost of hedging, say, european assets into yen, is far, far cheaper than the cost of hedging dollar assets into yen, so i wou

at the dollar index i think maybe somewhere in the 6% or 7% gain for the dollar in the year ahead. soave been much and you mentioned earlier about the treasury yields, and we have been surprised by the flattening of the yield curve, but we have seen it spike in the last few days. do you think in 2018 all these predictions or possibilities of the yield curve will invert, do you think those are just -- we are getting ahead of ourselves, perhaps there will not be that threat next year? sean: i do not think so. that, i think the trades are starting to be, the steepening trades are starting to be put on at the moment, really in inverted yield curve would be a surprise to us. we are pretty much agreeing with what is priced in as far as the short and. we have about 50 basis points priced in for the futures, we are looking for to hikes in june and december, so that is reasonable and i think the market has about everything right at the short end. on the longer and we would expect-- end we would yields higher and bonds selling off. yvonne: thank you so much for joining us, sean callow. betty

the dollar rallied 13% that year. ot saying it was all because of the repatriation of that money, but a good part of it was. with $1 trillion coming back, we think the dollar will be the number one major market currency for next year. 13%? will it rally bruce: 10% plus. erik: you see the dollar up 10% plus against the euro and yen. bruce: because of the money coming back which is not coming back in 2020 and 2021, coming back next year. erik: emerging-market currencies, you are active. emerging-market currencies will remain vibrant and not necessarily give up much versus the dollar. with emerging markets, number one, all 45 countries in the oecd this year are growing. .nd growing at a nice rate the last time we saw all 45 countries grow in the same year you have to go back over one dozen years and the trend continued for years. growth is good for emerging markets and commodities cycle has begun to turn out which is also very positive for emerging markets. emerging-market equities have been the top equity performer this

let's talk about the dollar. iggest weekly drop since the end of november as traders but the passage of the u.s. tax cut package in the rearview mirror. it has been dropping against all to theeers on its way worst year in more than a decade. let's get back to nandini ramakrishnan. earlier, you are saying you were generally positive on u.s. assets. does that mean you have faith in dollar strength for 2018? nandini: you do not need dollar faith to be positive on u.s. assets. one you think about where you are investing from. let's talk about the index performance itself to that is based on fundamentals. the s&p 500 will do well if earnings exceed or meet earnings expectations. for the dollar, it has not been a great year, but that is because other currencies have relatively outperformed. we see the yen strengthening, given some of the macro and bank of japan messaging. for that reason, the dollar has not had the same type of gains it had in 2015-2016. nejra: so you think it is down to relative performance by other cu

still the dollar does not seem to be reacting. day we have other news the surrounding michael flynn. even yesterday when we kept tearing this tax reform could happen -- hearing tax reform could happen the dollar kept falling. why? lisa: if i could expire the dollar this year, i would not be sitting at this table. it is been a big question mark for a lot of people. there are questions about the gop tax overhaul. the changes that are coming are fast and furious and potentially.bad we don't know the exact content . a survey of economists by the university of chicago showed only one of many economists surveyed believe that the tax plan would increase gdp materially over the next few years. it will likely increase the debt load of our country because likely the deficit will increase. that will make the dollar less worthwhile. i think this is what is factoring in here. on the flipside, and this does not square with what i'm saying, you have the fed and people saying the tax plan gets past, the fed will have to hike more next year. that s

that for the dollar from the rest of the world. -- forl kind of managed the dollar from the rest ofld. that all managed to vanish in the overnight trading, and some of the effects are interesting as well. the euro was pushing higher against the dollar, against all less, abovemore or the dollar today. a pronounced move in some of the german government bond yields, and that is because the flipside of that dollar trade meant that u.s. investors were coming in to europe and they were able to get ondsd of the safest b in europe. they were able to turn into a positive yield for u.s. investors. the ecb has stopped buying bonds for the holiday season. it has been a big selloff as a result. that is really interesting to talk about, the impacts of the dollar funding squeeze in the fx and the fixed income space. if you look at equities, we were treading water when it came to europe's slight rise to the upside. we are seeing the stoxx 600 close lower today. why could that be? paul: there is a lot of year end stuff going on here. you have to think about where we will be in the big picture. can w

the brazilian -- the australian dollar up by .60%. ed the investment kick unity to suspect higher interesting -- suspect higher interest rates. manus: the markets are hopeful. therisk reversals there, possibility for a deal is still there. i've been banging on about this. this is your chart. btv 79. the distance between financials and tact is the widest in 17 years but will that gap begin to close? the scale is beginning to close. the bank index is the highest since 2007. it's been running higher on deregulation and federal reserve interest hikes. joining that chorus, you have vanguard saying, global volatility may hurt equity but they still have u.s. equities rising by 3.5%. jpmorgan saying there is further upside in the equity markets. i'm not telling you it's 1999 or 2000. i'm just saying the mind the gap. we will discuss this little later on. let's get your first word news with juliette saly. the supreme court has allowed donald trump's travel ban to take full effect while challenges go forward. it hands him a major victory and sug

is going to have a very bad year next year i think this is the first year the dollar's been down in quite some time but i think it's the beginning of the next major leg down in what has been a long term dollar bear market ok you piqued my interest with several things there so first of all about the holiday time the end of the year when people are optimistic you're saying peter is part of that do we see part of the price of gold seen in the purchase of jewelry or is that just a minor part. i think that's a minor part of it you know last year it was the optimism over truck right trumpet just got elected and everybody thought oh this is going to be great he's going to make america great again we're going to get rid of you know we're going to shrink government we're going to cut regulations we're going to lower taxes and so early in the year it turned out that that wasn't the case and you know now all the sudden we're getting excited again because we're talking about tax cuts but we're not talking about shrinking government and as long as government gets more expensive we have to pay for

the u.s. dollar 31% say it never will be but 38% say, hey, one day it could be or will be an alternative to the u.s. dollar but there are big differences in the public sort of a digital divide when it comes to the cryptocurrency. those who are younger are much more likely to be positive on the outlook for bitcoin and uses older folks, those 65 and old, just 20% are democrats, more so than republicans. wealthy folks much more so than those in the lower income. 34% say it has a future for the bitcoin currency so if it seems like the nation is crazy on bitcoin, it's because they are there still seems to be a way to go to have the kind of standing to be a real currency. >> that was cnbc's steve lease mran liesman doing some sleuthing for us. >>> coming up, a major development on tax reform. we're live in washington with those details when "worldwide chge" reexanturns. and respond 60 times faster. it lets you know where your data lives, down to the very server. it keeps your insights from prying eyes, so

let's talk about the dollar. have stocks at highs on the back of tax reform and the economy improving. why hasn't the dollar moved with it >> the dollar has been in a downwards trend since the end of last year. so december 2016 is when we believed there was a peak in the u.s. dollar's long-term cycle. the reason why the dollar has been weakening, it's not been more a reflection of what's happening in the u.s., it's more of what's going on outside the u.s. global growth picking up, other central banks starting to move towards normal or more normal monetary policy settings, that helped to boost foreign currencies as foreign currencies strengthen, that will weigh on the u.s. dollar. >> somebody tweeted in, it's been eight years, the dollar has not done anything. it's where it was eight, nine years ago in terms of the actual value or purchasing power. whether or not that's the case, it doesn't change the fact that the story is not as much about the dollar as it is about the international markets. where are the hot sp

up against the dollar. trade weighted chart. it shows there were negative we reallyrade -- struggled to see how that will reverse. tom: within the idea of trade , howt and blended indexes cohesive do you see the dollar system in the globe right now? julia: the trade weighted dollar is the right way to look at it. i think the dollar is the dominant courtesy. that always gives us offsetting forces on the dollar, not just the traditional open economy forces the u.k. faces. the path through into inflation that causes these purchasing power shots to the consumer, we don't see that in the u.s. we don't have very much pass through and our consumer is benefiting from that kind of reserve currency status there gives a stability. nejra: we heard from george that he is expecting more dollar weakness. it's not been a great year for the dollar in 2017. will we get further weakness in 2017? julia: that depends on whether the eurozone strength continues to run hot relative to the u.s. economy, which is fine. not accelerati

rate advantage but more a game changer for the dollar the dollar could do well against currencies that particularly insensitive. we have treasury yields and we identify the japanese yen, the swiss frank as the most vulnerable plus obviously some other currencies in the space like the australian dollar that have historically proven to be quite sensitive. so growing rate advantage will translate into more against those currencies at the same time we think the euro, the pound remain and good volume and think those can actually even out perform the dollar heading into the new year. >> not necessarily global strength, very specific currencies. >> selective being regional, if you wish, is smart. i think asia in particular could be the one region that could do particularly badly against the dollar in the case of the swiss frank we're dealing with a fairly over valued currency but an attractive funding currency. if you want to benefit from a pickup in treasury yields as could be the case going forward, you could fund that trade by selling really swiss or in dpn. >> i have to ask you, theresa m

we're seeing a nice spike against the u.s. dollar on the back of better than expected uk manufacturing pmi. it's the best month since 2013 so the manufacturing pmi came in at 58.2, versus a revised october figure this is the highest print since 201 2013 >> i want do mormon-end analysis there's been so much focus on cryptocurrencies in the past month, let's look at bitcoin for november, up 56% for the month of november. clearly a lot of volatility there. i wonder what the ratio on that one looks like a lot of focus on bitcoin. let's look at how oil has done a lot of focus on that going into the opec meeting. we have the results of the opec meeting. for the month, brent is up a bit, but only up 3% relative to the expectations that were built in to the meeting and the fact they did end up extending for the full-year of 2018. surprising brent is not up more. foreign exchange for the month, euro/dollar up 2.2%. we hit through the 118 and 119 level, almost back to the 120 level, which if you remember a couple meetings ago for the ecb made

the cost as little as 70 u.s. dollars. e. the issue is the government says it is unaware that the devices are illegal. they say there's nothing unlawful about using them. >> i don't know anything about it. i don't want you to. --watch youtube. when you look at the world economic forum it is ranked very highly in terms of protecting intellectual property rights. so it is a property -- so it is surprising. >> you are right. singapore ranks fourth for protecting ip rights. the government says it has strong ip regime which protects innovations comprehensively. some of the numbers are staggering. digital research estimates online tv and movie piracy will cost the industry $32 billion in global revenue this year. by 2020 expect the amount to rise to $52 billion. , theer sobering nugget asia pac region will become the largest for online piracy next year. >> thank you. life for us out of singapore. we are heading back to freezing token -- tokyo with a reopened is next. nothing happened across equity markets. ♪ democrat on the senat

we believe the market is very short on the dollar. we going -- as we go into 2018, we think there may be short covering of that. our buyers will be for an increase response to the cyclical uptick. mark: avenue breaking news -- i bring you breaking news. theresa may has the poland. the u.k. has announced corporation with poland. prime minister may heading to poland. it is going through issues of its own, damien green was forced to resign yesterday. theresa may heading to poland and the first big announcement is the u.k. announcing security with the european nation. steven saywell and steven barrow staying with us. plenty coming up today including an exclusive conversation with bank of american chief executive, brian moynihan. his take on brexit. we are going to get a big guest call for 2018. defies on his call for the euro. we have further arguments between the two stevens. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: economic, finance, politics. i am mark barton in london. the issue of brexit and what shape it will ultimately take continues to loom ove

that's why the dollar's down. e fed is right. and so far, they aren't buying into it. maria: well, we had a little bit of a creeping back. left two weeks of the dollar. do you think it's sustainable? >> it was really oversold. the month of august, the dollar had a year to date return that was the most negative of the last 20 years of any of them. that basically suggests that it was very oversold. and you have gone from the highest conviction trade was long the dollar to tremendous speculative positioning against the dollar in august. so a counter trend was due. we actually are participating in that in some of our funds where we decided we would repair back on our dollar holdings. i think it will go to 96. the dollar index is dxy. it's having trouble breaking above 94. we think maybe gets to 96. but the longer trend is dash i'm more inclined to believe market-based abilities than i am ph.d. economists fed probabilities because i've seen the market be right an awful lot more than wrong on this. which means that the f

the kiwi dollar, the spike we saw, resuming its charge, up .25%.verall an interesting picture developing ahead of key events. to some of over their asset classes as we warm up and prepare for these meetings. gold up. 10 year paper steady at 2.38%. note on cable. that is holding on to lows. .hat is the lows of the month a lot of the energy from the weekend dissipated quite a bit. the one we complied volatility is the highest in two years. looking ahead to the anc conference on sunday. a quick note on crude oil, big moves. it is because of damage to a north to see pipeline. the highest since 2015. the pipeline was shot after a , 400,000 discovered barrels a day. repairs are likely to take two weeks. data rent of the contract and helps to set half of the world's physical oil prices. fors crossover to debra mao a check on first word headlines. pipe bomberpected has injured himself in three people in a blast in times square. the 27-year-old man was seriously burned in what they call an attempted terror attack. he came to the u.s. from bangladesh six yea

the dollar-yen sticking at 115.42 for a third day of strength. we are seeing some action when it comes to the jgb's, a seven white -- japanese futures are pointing to continued losses in tokyo. elsewhere, a mixed picture, but they are dragging downward 1% so far. dragging on the regional benchmark has samsung ways on the cospi. are leading the rally in jakarta, the rupee is at a two-week high and indonesian bonds are up. although dbh sees caps. large caps have swung to gains, gaining about half a percent while the yuan is pairing its advance after climbing to a three-month high. the focus will be the open of japanese markets. volumes are light even that trading is winding down before christmas. rishaad: thank you. sony chiefng in the chief of list -- holdings. what do you make of the boj's pronouncement and what will you be listening for when we have the governor talking? basically, today's decision will not change the policy, the heeresting thing is that dissented again, adding the boj time,ething more and this one of the newest issues is that it

let me hit the dollar here for a second because it's kind of an interesting flip side of the coin dollarg higher again today. it was down half a point down 9% this year. on pace for its worst year since 2003 that, to me, is an incredible stat, mike >> it was a totally confounding of the consensus trade this year i mean, a year ago we were saying can the markets handle this ongoing rally in the dollar everybody assumed policy was going to be pointing in the direction of having the dollar outperform i think it's really more of a symptom of the fact it's been a globally balanced growth story, other parts of the world outperformed relative to the u.s. >> if you told people we'd have four rate hike totals, four rate hikes after having just one a year president trump in the office. stock market on a rally. repatriation looming on the horizon. typical year-end scrambles into the dollar he said all of that was going to happen and the dollar would be having its worst year since 2003, what do you make of it >> well, i can remember three years ago being in europe to promote the offshore version of

the dollar hits the five-week high. sustained u.s. dollar weakness. t snap that long winning on the count of what was seen as a dovish hike from the federal reserve. in terms of some of the other movers, it is a pretty lackluster section. let us bring up the function in terms of movements on the bloomberg. what you see perhaps surprisingly is not the goldilocks reaction, but we did get one dovish hike. the idea is that growth looks sunny, but it is still all sluggish enough to keep from movement to click the pleaded -- movement to quickly. we are seeing a pretty mixed session here in australia. asia, rather. but when itg gains, comes to materials as well as energy, and especially gold prices, we are seeing strong gains. in fact, the top gain is resolute mining. you touched about the japan nuclear story. keep in mind, we have a resurgence again. that is weighing on sentiment in tokyo. i want to bring up one of the movers here, which is 9507. this is she in cocoa electric. shinkoku electric. this blocks the start of nuclear reactors for this company in j

well against the u.s. dollart the euro, or will something else standout? jens: one of the last as one of the things that has moved is the korean won. one thing that has shifted there is that they used to intervene in the currency. always kind of like leaning against the wind, and they have stopped doing that. the currency is where the central banks are stepping away, and those currencies could have much bigger moves. that is the trend that can take the korean won into territory we have not seen for a while. julie: i nine bitcoin related south korea talk today. thanks, jens nordvig. he's going to stay with us. next, we'll look at the global geopolitical scene. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ to first word news this afternoon. the white house says president trump has been briefed on the islamic state attack on a shiite cultural center in kabul, afghanistan. to president is continuing monitor the situation with chief of staff john kelly providing updates. the attack killed more than 40 people and wounded dozens

the dollar index as well well below 93. e market does not like this development. >> this week has seen equities trade quite well on hopes of this tax-cut bill being passed. instead, we are confronted with smoking guns for the first time, linking the president with the russians. instead of the good news we were hoping for, we have bad news and i agree with charlie that markets should first and ask questions later with these headlines. we have already seen half the loss we first had. vonnie: i do not know, the 10 year -- >> more referring to s&p futures . we complain about the lack of volatility with nothing going on and when something happens, the market reacts or overreacts and we complain, what are people doing? mark: we have been asking for weeks and months what will be the trigger, if there is one, that ends this record-breaking rally we have seen in u.s. stocks. political events could well do it. we do not how -- we do not know how this love old. worth considering, isn't it? >> on the surface, you have seen some nascent

like to point out to our clients and our investors is short-term fed moves are not what drives the dollar it correlates much more to what the bond market thinks vis-a-vis the fed say 18 months forward so if you actually rook at the bond market pricing for 2019 now, there's a pretty big discrepancy between the bond market and the fed, so that's going to be really interesting in driving the dollar, and this time i think the bond market is going to be right. >> i want to dive a whole bunch deeper on the fed in a little bit, but if i asked you are you more surprised that rates remained as low as they did throughout this entire year or that stocks remained as powerful as they did throughout this entire year, what would you say? >> a little bit of both. i thought that the -- we were together in march of this year, and the ten-year treasury was at 2.60 at the time and i said it's going below $2.25 and not below 2. i was dead right and made it all the way to 2.02, also made me a dishonest person and did hold the line i really thought we'd take another look above 2.60 this year, and that didn't ha

the aussie dollar is interesting. the market continues, the mliv guys believe the aussie is gaining speed. what is the aussie dollar doing? let's talk about what else we have on deck. the story continues to be when we should watch out for. copper up a 1%. we continue to see commodities in focus but he relates back to the china story. gold is rising and the calmer -- bloomberg commodity index -- branch was negative and brent is trading up by .3 of 1%. here is sophie kamaruddin. production rose last month. expanding to 3.7% as a whole. toppingales growth forecasts. in the u.s. the rs has [indiscernible] they pay17 return if the bills before the end of the year and only if the taxes were assessed before 2018 homeowners in states with the highest property taxes have been peppering officials with questions about how to prepay the levees to take advantage of a tax break. the eu's lead negotiator has [indiscernible] former chief official in a breach of protocol that was provided as evidence of [indiscernible] isis's secretary

versus the u.s. dollarabout inflation. maybe in till next year, 2019, and one guest said 2020 before the rba has to hike rate. there we go with the aussie sitting pretty. that will be a contentious meeting. we got a surprise last time. any chance we get another surprise? >> i might take that bet. the consensus is clearly in line keeping the key rate steady. growth has rebounded. , 30 a look at this chart 816. you can see this big deceleration and growth in india. demonetization, the gst tax, and a stronger than forecast rebound in third-quarter gdp to 6.3% last week, so that is one reason not to worry about the things they might worry about. what should they worry about and think of cutting rates? in the nearsing term, but people looking for reasons why this could be temporary. oil prices may push it higher. modi's keyndra economic advisers in an interview with bloomberg news been misguideds on its outlook on inflation and they should be cutting rates. i want to look at another chart. this is 1506. now you

the dollar has recovered its initial spike on the downside. s it -- dollar and undoing the shock. by the time we have the european markets open it will be a past history newsflash. that's get your business flash. initex remodeled shops and boosted store efficiency. he said operating profit rose to 3 billion euros in the nine months through october matching analyst estimates. revenue advanced or 2% exclude -- excluding currency. western digital and it a spat that turn to derail the sale of toshiba's flash memory business and cut the u.s. company off from their future suppliers. western digital is dropping claims that were aimed at stopping the sale to a consortium. the japanese company will end its legal claims against western digital. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: another corporate story. walt disney may announce the acquisition of a large piece of $.20 -- 20th century fox. it would mark a significant point in the career of rupert murdoch. to more on this let's speak you. fast rupert murdoch has been building his media empire for

the dollar index continues to hurt, a brutal year per dollar index. d and the curve is slightly steeper today but flatter has been the theme and crude up by .3. david: let's find out what is outside the business world. emma chandra has first word news. recordn pennsylvania, breaking snowfall has enveloped the city in ice. single-digit temperatures could stick around for at least another week. president trump chimed in on twitter, saying the u.s. could "use a little bit of that good old global warming that our country and other countries were going to pay trillions of dollars. to protect against he has" expressed skepticism about climate change science. south africa's top court's essay nation's parliaments failed to hold president zuma accountable for misusing funds. he had spent $17 million in taxpayer money to upgrade his private home. while he apologized and pay back some of the money, the court ruled parliament unlawfully shielded him from liability. they called on them to drop rules on circumstances on which zuma can be removed from office. accordi

black is the dollar index, here's the scale of course the dollar index is going down, scaling is goinge's 90. the trade deficit, going down, the trade deficit gets more negative, which is not exactly what we want but what i find fascinating is before the credit crisis it makes sense how it worked because as the trade deficit became smaller, the dollar is getting stronger that makes sense you can buy more of all the products that are coming into the country with the stronger dollar of course the dollar gets weaker, the trade deficit should get bigger right around the credit crisis things got a little crazy. then something weird happened. the dollar index really skyrocketed right around june of 2014 what happened in june of 2014? i'll tell you what happened. first of all, a lot of this became skewed because of central banks. we can debate whether they overstayed their welcome and created distortions which is what i think as you see all the distance on the inverse relationship but june 2014 is when the ecb introduced negative rates. and that's when the dollar popped and the euro went down

it was down more than that against the aussie dollar. down 0.5% -- excuse me up 0.5% to the u.s. llar reacting perhaps to allister cook's century this morning. >>> it's been a fairly good year for the transportation sector. the dow transport index is up 18% so far in 2017, but what to do over the next 12 months here's morgan brennan's playbook for that sector for 2018 >> in 2018, a growing economy will propel freight volumes to new records. spurring more mergers and more infrastructure spending as transports try to keep up. first a tech-tonic shift electric vehicles, automation, drones, even bloc chain for trucks all in the works but new federal regulations will have the biggest impact. coming into the new year, commercial trucks must be electronically tracked and railroads will have to install new safety tech. many won't be ready. second, e-commerce escalation. there will be more planes to move more packages more mergers focused on logistics in the last mile of delivery and more big stuff. literally as companies like xpo logistics deliver other large items that can clog fedex and

sterling against the dollar, increasing on that news. etter time from carney to hammond after inflation overshoots. the u.k. opposition labor party will not rule out a second brexit referendum if it wins the next election. mcdonald said nothing should be off the table as talks move on to trade. >> we have got to reach, we think a traditional british compromise where you bring both sides together. compromise, which means we try to get the best we possibly can in terms of protecting jobs and the economy. and that means the benefits of the single market and the customs union, but overcoming some of the perceived dis- benefits. anna: opposition is devolving then, since the last vote. is there an opportunity to remain within a single market? >> it is as close to the single market as we can get. anna: could you rethink the policy, though? >> the problem with staying in, is that that will reflect the views from the referendum. there were issues around the thedom of movement and single market that have to be addressed. i think those issues will b

weighing on the dollar during friday's session. s not added up to a very positive session. you might be expected to see that with those kind of features in the united states, we would get a more positive session in asia. are really flat on the overall msci asia-pacific. not helping to boost the japanese exporter stocks. story is really where we focus. there are many other stories and narratives we can look at. the twitter goings-on. and the deadline of december 8. do we end up talking about shutdown once again? manus: let's talk about how this all translates to the bond markets. they call him macro man. 315 words. expect more planners. expectpect morel -- more flatteners. just below here is where you are seeing a support level. the range and yelled we had our last guess -- range --a 2.22 2.5% 2.2% to 2.5% range. of these, boysd and girls, in other words, the american bond market relative to g7 cures is 1.4%. you'll differential draws money into the u.s. bond market. support theers will bond market. that is the view for macro man thi

even though the dollar is higher -- typically you don't see that. interesting to see all of this at work. with the bitcoin down so much, crypto-related companies are taking a big leg lower. lots of microcap companies are getting into the crypto space. overstock.com, e-commerce retailer. they also have a crypto segment. riot blockchain come along thin, and long island i've been iced tea, which at one on is thatp 290% they are changing the name to long blockchain. some are saying that the bear market rule for the other asset classes not apply to bitcoin. when you do that sometimes from you have to wonder o whether or not that will work out. g #btv 2360, to look at the air markets for bitcoin. the 50-day moving average, 100-day moving average, that represents medium-term support, but a lot of the dips down to my previous bear markets this year. look at the bear market we have going on this week, much more than the previous dips. movinghe 100-day average. past trading action would suggest we are likely to dip to the 50-day moving average. the 100-day mov