has been frozen under the yoke of u.s. dollar germany and now it's breaking up we're going into and i have coined this phrase neo mercantilist you know i was the first to call those and he would just like i was the first to measure because in the twenty eleven i'm the first to mention the american dollars i'm in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen we're going back to nineteenth century global economies again so i want to say that this is the sort of neo con hubris stick sort of what is called patriotism by some after john mccain's that in all of the areas for him but some could say it's called imperialism from the outside they might see it as very aggressive a neo con like and and are we here in christ report have warned of this but this is c.n.n. b.b.c. saying it and we've never even put that into context of just how much of the world's economy is under sanctions by the u.s. because from a u.s. perspective each one of the economic entities is targeted for good reason be a human rights violations terrorism crime nuclear trade co

it's been frozen under the yoke of u.s. dollar germany and now it's breaking up we're going into and i have coined this phrase neo mercantilist you know i was the first to call this and he would just like i was the first to measure because in two thousand and eleven i'm the first to mention the american to listen in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen we're going back to nineteenth century global economies again so i want to say that this is the sort of neo con hubris stick sort of what is called patriotism by some after john mccain stephan all of the bits where he's for him but some could say it's called imperialism from the outside they might see it as very aggressive a neo con like and and our we here in kaiser report have warned of this but. this is c.n.n. b.b.c. saying it and we've never even put that into context of just how much of the world economy is under sanctions by the u.s. because from a u.s. perspective each one of the economic entities is targeted for good reason be it human rights violations terrorism crime nucle

in the world are three checking the dollar. do you think that the increasing deployment of sanctions embargoes and cutting off nations from swift were result in total rejection of the dollar and a new financial order alister well time i think yes because really you don't weaponize that currency and deploys in that fashion like if you do that basically you just read mistrust and we're seeing this with. the russians who. got rid of their fuel their treasury salut not quite a while but they've reduced it to a pretty low level i guess will it be buying instead of being buying goat i think that they've actually got the right side dish and i says i suspect as the dollar gets into trouble the russians if you like the raising folks for the russian economy is likely to improve quite significantly i think they know what they're doing it doesn't make sense i mean precisely as you say max the pay the money the surat is just that is just a paper is just currency. it does not retain it is value and death toll in the long run it's of no use i

the dollar we have been before. they have this backstop of capital slight in a weakening yuan environment. they certainly do not want to re-invite the scenario of 2016 when a rapidly weakening yuan, they had to draw down on fx reserves to protect against capital flight. simon french, panmure gordon chief economist stays with us. emerging-market stocks could drop a further 10 to 15% on global trade. is the turnaround still not incite? and the chairman and ceo of roubini macro associates joins us at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. ♪ nejra: breaking news just across the bloomberg from clary at. newceo proposed as the chairman of the board, one of the lines coming through. some shifts at the top here at clarion. also, about 9 billion swiss 2021., margin of 20% in let's get the bloomberg business flash. administration has named a category of high-tech products in the next round of tariffs imposed on chinese goods. that is as the u.s. government released the final decision about $200 billion worth of chinese products that will be ha

in the world are three checking the dollar. do you think that the increasing deployment of sanctions embargoes and cutting off nations from swift were result in total rejection of the dollar and if i had a lot or alister well time i think yes because really you don't weaponize that currency and deploys in that fashion like if you do that basically you just read mistrust and we're seeing this with. the russians who. got rid of their fuel their treasury salut not quite a while but they've reduced it to a pretty low level i guess will it be buying instead of being buying goat i think they've actually got the right idea and i says i suspect is the dollar gets into trouble the russian if you like the raising folks for the russian economy is likely to improve quite significantly i think they know what they're doing it doesn't make sense i mean precisely as you say max the pay the money the surat is just that is just a bear is just currency. it does not retain it is value and death toll in the long run it's of no use i mean people just

and so the us dollar. you know the solver and of the u.s. dollar gets to impose huge fines and sanctions and threaten all sorts of nations around the world and at first you know they came for the cubans and the european said nothing because they were not cuban and then they came for venezuela and then they came for iran and then they came for russia and then they started to impose sanctions on friendlier and friendlier countries europe said enough the u.s. is trying to control the european banking system remember they imposed the fact that so every single european bank had a report of every single customer every single transaction especially one through the u.s. dollars and the u.s. is opposed their u.s. dollar base has germany all over the world now european nation nations are saying no we're not going to be a part of this empire anymore because we need the box we need the money we're not we don't believe in your propaganda we don't think that your sanctions on iran have merit for any reason so we're just going to bypass them because we can

has been frozen under the yoke of u.s. dollar germany and now it's breaking up we're going into and i have coined this phrase neo mercantilist you know i was the first to call this and he would just like i was the first to measure because in the twenty eleven i'm the first to mention the american toll ism in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen we're going back to nineteenth century global economies again so i want to say that this is the sort of neo con hubris stick sort of what is called patriotism by some after john mccain stephan all the bits where he's for him but some could say it's called imperialism from the outside they might see it as very aggressive a neo con like and and are we here in christ report have warning to this. this is c.n.n. b.b.c. saying it and we've never even put that into context of just how much of the world economy is under sanctions by the u.s. because from a us perspective each one of the economic entities is targeted for good reason be it human rights violations terrorism crime nuclear trade corrup

especially what's with the u.s. dollar and the u.s. is closed their u.s. dollar base has germany all over the world now european nation nations are saying no we're not going to be a part of this empire anymore because we need the box we need the money we're not we don't believe in your propaganda we don't think that your sanctions on iran have merit for any reason so we're just going to bypass them because. the headlines on our chief international in a damning speech at the u.n. russia his foreign minister lambastes the political blackmail economic pressure and brute force he says western governments are using to preserve their global dominance. angry protests in barcelona with clashes between police and cut along separatists just two days before the first anniversary of the region's independence referendum . and after a fractious and emotionally charged committee hearing donald trump orders an f.b.i. investigation into claims of sexual assault against his supreme court nominee. you can find those stories in full over on our t.v. dot com my colleague you kn

end of the euro if they don't trade surpluses so the run of the play actually is going against the dollar and i suspect a little later on once these trade tariffs start to affect prices in america the fed's going to have a huge great problem because can it really raise race to do with a rising race a price. driven in part by tariffs and i think they've got a real problem coming up on this and it's like you should be destabilizing i think rather than how i'm saying in terms of the dollar i want to talk about trade a second but just picking on this dollar idea for a moment with a snake and shorts and shorting in the marketplace and our right what i would consider to be a fraud you have a situation where investors come to a fork in the road and they can choose to go down the path of buying dollars or they can choose to buy gold but they're at the gate of the gold road is a naked short gun pointed to their skull and right a blow their brains out this is not symmetric market making this is not price discovery this is ridiculous they're there they're not buying dollars because they're crazy the

the system. what happens when it does go wider? you will get dollarppreciation, more emerging-market paying. -- pain. dueol in the rate market is to go up. just a little it is starting to leave a mark. >> value stocks, tech stocks, and no interest rates. i think there might be more room to run and this could get the fed some cover. they had been adamant they will slowly increase rates over time. jonathan: joining me in new york is jeffrey rosenberg, krishna manager d portfolio noelle corum. let's begin with the quiet climb higher in treasury yields. deal expected to continue? noelle: you nailed it. is a quiet climb higher. think it is due to a couple of reasons. the drivers are exactly clear. tariffs nots that being as bad as people expected, maybe marginally. the trade war is not over by any means, but part of it is we have seen the idiosyncratic risk come off the table. turkey and russia are both hiking to alleviate concerns. imfntina, the deal with the looks like it will be better than expected. it is not any one driver. is multiple. krishna: cap t

the dollar against the yen, we are seeing a little bit more appetite for the yen not the dollar as was emerging markets little this morning. that is interesting in the context of where contagion goes. this year from juliette saly with the business flash. twitter ceo has been grow by congress on what republicans call the shadow banning of conservative voices. jack dorsey says it is dangerous to ask the platform to regulate opinions or be the arbiter of truth, adding he would rather be judged by impartiality then be criticized -- and the criticized. other conservatives have complained that social media is biased against right-wing opinions. >> i will survey making something very clear. we do not consider political forpoints, perspectives, party affiliation in any of our policies or decisions. period. impartiality is our getting risible. juliette: americans -- american express well after the fbi began investigating practices at the organization. the wall street journal says the inquiry began last month looking at whether consumers were misled thought to gain more businesses as amex . bloo

what they are also doing is playing the australian dollar against the new zealand dollar. ollar has been under pressure because of domestic factors. there is no chance of an rba interest rate cut anytime soon. franklin templeton believes the new zealand dollar had been by thepummeled tightening bias changed to an easing bias and because of consumer confidence being underappreciated in new zealand. they believe the hurdles for new zealand rate, it is pretty high. shery: when it comes to emerging-market selloff, are we near the bottom yet? [no audio] haidi: are we near the bottom yet is what she was asking. andreea: new the bottom but not out of the woods yet. -- near the bottom but not out of the woods yet. the selloff has been pretty orderly. you haven't had a huge flight to safety. u.s. treasury yields as we have seen the last week over 3%. shery: thank you very across asset editor andrea poppa. papuc.reea must have you now. give us your view on emerging have seen. what you it seems franklin templeton says we are nearing the bottom. >> obviously a lot of uncertainty and vo

dollar store. -- story. commodities are getting a little relief on the weaker dollar. it does not hurt that the boe said that the budget deficit blowout in the last few months. that is a short-term good thing, long-term bad thing. david: the problem is sooner or later, you have to pay it back. they don't care until they do care. then it is a problem. now to bloomberg first take. we are being joined by carl riccadonna and gina martin adams. we want to turn to england and the pound getting some support. it is not just the ruble. mark carney has written an editorial where he says the bank of england thinks about what could go wrong and prepares our banks so they can keep doing our job in case it does. that is what we have been doing the past two years in preparation for brexit, some of you may disagree, but our job is to care for the worst, not hope for the best. if there is a hard brexit, they may well be raising interest rates more than markets expect. carl: colossal mistake. david: it would be. carl: this is a negative development for the economy. the premise is you wou

that is the rising u.s. dollar. is only when the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked. asia, seeing countries in all of whom rely on very high u.s. dollar funding. investors are starting to worry maybe the dollar rises you may not be able to pay back. they are taking capital out of those markets as the availability of capital starts to shrink. >> does this raise questions about what emerging markets start to do? we have seen all those activities by argentina. some of these countries playing by the imf rulebook. others less so. we see actions being taken. does it raise questions about what they can do on their own? if this is a u.s. strong dollar story? ingetting your own capital order is usually the best medicine you can take to bring back investor confidence. especially emerging markets, they need capital in order to grow. that's what countries need to do and that's what the imf is putting forward. the difficulty is it usually brings a strong dose of medicine to begin with. anna: what are you look

raymond: investments in the u.s.raymond: dollar space. o-year is very high right now. 10-year's 3.5%. you are not taking up too much. if you can get corporate bonds that trade at 150 basis points for the two-year, you can get investment-grade assets, which is not too bad. i like u.s. dollar corporate debt and high-grade. haidi: there was a surprisingly positive report with the macro .nvironment in australia the aussie dollar could actually outperform. we saw the s&p 500 change their trading. does that change your view? andond: it shows the aaa negative outlook went from negative to positive to reflect the better fiscal budget situation. the aussie 10-year rates are one of the best. people are already buying that debt. it hasn't changed a lot. the key thing to focus on as most of us are showing is inflation in the kiwi. you will see the reserve bank start to be more positive. haidi: is the u.s. going to stay despite the divergence of the u.s. and the rest of the world even if we see another step in the trade war? raymond: i think so. if it

we also have to talk about the dollar. more or less flat today and what's interesting is these next long positions really rallying over the course of the second half of the year but in the last few weeks they have been dropping we hit historic levels. we are seeing them come off and there's better sentiment. >> thank you, sebastian. let's get the first word news with juliette saly in singapore. >> in the u.s., brett kavanaugh's nomination to the supreme court is at risk after new sexual misconduct allegations emerge. "the new yorker" has reported that senate democrats are investigating an incident that allegedly took place during his college years at yale. that comes just as the senate judiciary committee prepares to hear testimony from a woman claiming he assaulted her in high school. he denied the allegations and the white house issued a statement saying it stands firmly behind the nominee. the u.k. opposition labor party is raising the pressure on prime minister theresa may, proposing the option of the national vote on b

dollar start with the the dollar has been the story of 2018.you have seen over the last you have seen this decoupling from the nominal rate differentials. that is sort of a regime shift possibly underway, where other factors are coming into play. commodities have rallied over the last couple weeks. it could reinforce the divergence theme is over, and you could see a performance from emerging markets. haidi: one of the bullish factors has been one his going on with oil. we have this chart in our library, brent sitting close to a four-year high. that on the expectation it will push up inflation. how does that play into expectations for the fed? michael: it is a big factor. when oil collapsed a few years ago, janet yellen looked right through that. she saw that as a transitional factor. production started sliding heavily in the united states. there was a bit of a reassessment, as shale production had tripled, the broader u.s. economy was in a different place. a $26 oil price was not constructive to the hole u.s. inflation story. wtithe fed looks a

i think that if it pulls it off and the u.s. dollar starts to crumble in a lot of ways that the u.s. dollar is benefiting by the chaos in the emerging markets in argentina venezuela south africa and there's a flight to the dollar as a safety a safe haven currency but once that is trend as peaked then you're going to look at the broader geopolitical picture in terms of the currency market if you see russia and china get together and they are able to issue the dollar or ignore the dollar that's going to signal to the world and in particular i think in in the wildcard in all this as i've said before is germany because germany is assumed to be a u.s. ally but if you listen to the rhetoric coming out of berlin it seems as though germany is being kind of pushed into the russia china axis which is very interesting that means you've got russia china germany on one side of the geopolitical game board you've got the u.s. israel saudi arabia on another side and britain is left out now because of exiting the global commerce market they're going to

it is the 10-year yield versus the dollar spot index. is not playing on the equity market. >> this is a conundrum on the yield markets. the explanation i am hearing from foreign-exchange markets is this is risk off. get out of the dollar because em is stabilizing, and look forward to what is happening next year. people are done with the fed. they want to know the ecb is going to do. they are thinking this is as good as it gets in the u.s. economy. david: they are done with the fed? i have not heard that lately. steve: i don't know about done with the fed. the prevailing theory is the fed is going to go once a quarter from now until the end of time. we don't buy that. 2019, growth is going to continue to be fine, and inflation is going to surprise to the downside. the fed is going to pause. you can very well see the dollar weakened. you see a preview in the markets now. david: do anticipate the fed as seeing the end of the path? they are going to keep hiking, but not too much. this chart suggests it will go to 3% and then max out. lananh:

as the south american country has the most dollar cash holdings after the u.s. who petticoat paris is one of the most famous argentinians to have been hit by the financial crisis in two thousand and one. the former soccer player who was on the country's nine hundred ninety four world cup team to watch the state freeze all his accounts and convert dollars into pesos a tragedy for people like him who had been investing in dollars for decades. but the. country has then through fifteen crises since one thousand nine hundred seventy five and they said over and over again if you bet on the dollar you'll lose . only experience their piece is losing our value. go also said that many argentinians today are still afraid to leave their money in the bank after renewed fall in the peso in recent weeks their assets have lost another four percent in value up and. have learned long ago how to predict the crisis that's why they would carelessly stumble into the next one so quickly by leaving their money in the bank on. the u.s. federal reserve says argentina holds the largest am

destroyed by the dollar the current guy who's ever running venezuela is going to get destroyed by the dollar look turkey is to talking about. the wolf the wild wolves of america stop crying wolf grow grow a pair and a dog crypto hard money real hard body oh that's right you're all paul paul paul paul paul paul paul well whatever swiss bank account you have in the way just go there and shut up well. or maybe i made that up who cares it doesn't peanut who cares just go away shut up he is a member of turkey is a member of nato and of course this he's backed up by the talk coming from germany as well germany is always in the middle of whatever empire is falling apart and a new one rising so we'll see what happens in that it's just a signal these are signals and perhaps like the others before him they'll just be destroyed but the big wildcard of course what most geopolitics and geo economics of the last twenty years is really about is the rise of china and you could kind of see that in two thousand we as a nation gave up on our own people that's when you see all of the charts start to like

safety is going to be the dollar, treasuries in the u.s..n the tape today basically saying that the fed on to prepare themselves for a rerun. that tells you have policymakers are thinking. today, everything looks hunky-dory in the u.s. and we will probably glow -- grow at a rapid clip. but a year from today if the thatrio plays out, tightened six times in 2019 expecting u.s. growth to continue at this level is preposterous. it just cannot sustain itself. inverted, andd be the other correction everywhere. and if we have a, that's an environment where treasury rates rally and rally in a meaningful way. >> right, two more times this year. i don't agree with the -- policymakers also say that the long-term average rate should be about 3%. another six times would take us a little bit about that. for the restroblem of the world, but the u.s. can certainly continue to grow. >> we are in the camp that the ses once or twice this year and then we go into a weession in 99 -- 2020 -- are calling for a meaningful slowdown in the second half of next year i

the dollar is news stream. in a war it's a been weaponized and weaponized and the empire that is the us is expanded and controlled through the world's dependence on dollars to survive and that's to post world war two order that's the the legacy of the bretton woods agreement and this is what countries are now fighting to to get out of this constraint out of this choke hold of the dollar but it's a classic set up a first they came for the communist and i didn't say anything because blah blah blah so here they first they came for cuba and i didn't say anything because i wasn't communist are our country wasn't communist then they came for venezuela then they came for iran and then they are starting to use that weapon that power that hubris the emperor the empire gets less and less happy that you might betray them in any way so this is what we're at the point now where you know the u.s. has decided again to impose sanctions on iran and europe you better abide or we're going to sanction you like you know those big ic

indices.ome the canadian dollar and the australian dollar and the australian dollar both weaker becausestronger. we do not know whether we will get another $200 billion locked out of china this week. bonds selling off around the world. it is risk ond, and on the other, it is risk off. coordinate: it has been a warning of anger and protest on capitol hill. societally -- unsuccessfully god hearings on --nt kavanaugh onuccessfully got hearings broad kavanaugh -- brett kavanaugh to close. the white house is preparing to roll out tariffs on $200 billion on chinese goods. retaliate. to strongest typhoon to hit japan made landfall in western japan with window over 100 miles an hour. it is expected to pick ups read as it takes same add one of the country's most populated area. hundreds of flights have been canceled. everything from egyptian mummies to dems are replicas were burned in one of america's -- one of south's national treasures. reports say several fire hydrants and extinguishers were not working properly. have been speaking with austria's finance minister. of a expect the commission i

we saw yields pushing higher, but the dollar driving lower. wonder what you think that dynamic at the moment. is that a tension, or does it make sense to you? noelle: i would agree with krishna. we see inflation going into year-end softening around 1.9%. these drivers, the risk stories are coming off slightly. again, the trade war is not over. this is just the beginning. but we are seeing that come off slightly. that is allowing fundamentals to take over and people remember the u.s. economy is actually growing fairly well. that is not going anywhere because fiscal policy is supportive and that consumer is confident. krishna: i think the driver of the dollar, the rate differential is clearly a big driver, but equally important is the u.s. fiscal deficit, and the ensuing u.s. trade deficit, which are very related. effectively, the u.s. fiscal deficit gets financed by the trade deficit. if you think of it that way, the strength of the dollar story because of rate differential starts to fade. this was our expectation and how things were playing out

. >> i want to pick up on that comment on the u.s. dollar reading between the lines you're still bullish on the greenback here we have spoken to several analysts turning a bit less hawkish about the prospects of the dollar given that most people are saying we're past peak cycle we have things to contend with like big deficits out of the u.s. coming as well as the fact that every single step by the fed is telegraphed at this point. what still makes you so bullish on the u.s. dollar here? >> i think it's fair to say we've been an outlier for most of the year. we returned our forecast for euro/dollar down in march. if anything the market has gone more rapidly than our forecast we have been an outlier and bullish on the dollar than most. for me it's the emerging market story, which was a trigger for turning that forecast in the first place and remains center stage for the dollar now a lot of flows coming out of em are going to the dollar, they are not going to the franc or the yen. those are the predom innocent sa predominant ones interest rate

i think the dollar is the key. if the dollar goes down, that will ultimately help em establish a base. in goodyou see examples quality assets or currencies of healthy countries being sold off simply because there are people saying i do not want exposure to em anymore, and thus creating dislocations that are not justified by the fundamentals? geoff: i think that is absolutely right. i think you are seeing that in a number of countries. you see deterioration of fundamentals in brazil. i think the selloff of the ruble is overdone, also the asian currencies are overdone, but it is not that serious. in india, oil prices are up. the fundamentals warned a selloff. you see it in the rupee as well. don't forget, this was a big focus of the market in late may and it is june -- and in june. isdon't really believe there a need for fundamental weakness of the chinese currency. it's very much reflecting the strength of the dollar. the chinese economy is slowing down. they are doing policy changes trying to deport the chinese eco

as japanese yen on the move, is the u.s. dollar. assets in general, foreign exchange markets, in particular the aussie dollar up 0.5%. the copper price, featuring on the other part of this, the commodities. copper up. once again asking questions, why such resilience in asian equities? is it because the underlying picture for the chinese economy is not so bad, or we think the pboc and others will protect the chinese economy? let's get the bloomberg first word update. does the humphrey has that in dubai. desley: the trump administration will impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of chinese goods next week, more than doubling that in 2019. it deepens what is shaping up to be a prolonged trade war between the world's two biggest economies. the president said if beijing retaliates against american farmers and industries, as it has previously vowed, the u.s. will immediately pursue further tariffs on $267 billion of chinese imports. u.s. supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh and the woman who accused him of decades-old sexual assault will t

britain's currency bounced back against the dollar monday after the used top negotiator michelle obama indicated a divorce deal could be reached within a matter of weeks here's what bernie had to say about being realistic. realistic we are able to reach an agreement. on the first stage of the which is the brics it treaty. it was in. six or eight weeks the treaty is clear we have two years to reach an agreement before they leave two years after in march ninety that means that the ticking clock and the time necessary for the ratification process of commons and one side to europe and parliament in concert in their side we need that we must reach an agreement. before the beginning of november i think it's possible siobhan is speaking about the downward pressure on the us a time pestle as weakened somewhat over the past week but many argentinians are still chasing the dollar as south american country has the most dark cash holdings off of the us who petticoat pears is one of the most famous argentinians to have been hit by the financial crisis in two thousand and one. the former soccer play

that led to the strengthening of the dollar as well as higher treasury yields. easury yields are at 3% now, and bond yields are still stuck at 40 basis points. gershon: in the short-term the story is the relative difference in economic outlooks. the u.s. is really strong. we might have a problem with the dollar rallying to the point where it's problematic for global growth, but that is not the main concern of the fed at the moment. the main concern is we are at full employment and inflation is starting to creep up. if you look at the longer term, you look at deficits that continue to be a problem in the u.s., something we probably do not talk enough about, and running very loose fiscal policy, at some point that's going to -- the chickens are going to come home to roost on that, and the dollar might actually suffer as a result of that. and europe, we can argue about the exact timing, but you have to expect rates to go up in the long run. that's also unsustainable. 45 basis points on 10-year bund yields is not sustainable. jonathan: you touched on something ray da

what about the euro-dollar? e context of this chart, we have to see some degree of harder assumptions in terms of the direction. i think trevor has outlined the potential options very well. we need to see a resolution which provides a degree of certainty that we are going towards one of those scenarios. that will be the range rate. the question is which of those parameters are we likely to see? at the moment, is seemingly that pragmatism will win out and we could see some resolution that will avert the worst case scenario. that will probably encourage risk to drift lower and move toward the lower end of the range. provide a better circumstance for the u.k. environment. >> i worry that the cliff edge becomes another cliff edge. if we end up fudging things and leave the european union with no destination, the so-called line brexit, political words, everyone backtracks from, this will be going on. we will have this conversation of the trump and grexit show for the next five years. francine: if you look at the worst-

india is also not fairing too well right now the rupee has lost ten percent against the dollar since march this year but argentina's been the worst hit so far austerity measures have unleashed wave upon wave of anti-government demonstrations the unions take to the streets of corners ariz on an almost daily basis argentina's peyser has lost eighty six percent in value against the dollar over the last six months. immediate casualty of that very crisis is argentina's construction sector it is said to cut some forty thousand jobs in the coming months as high interest rates financing and the government's scales back infrastructure projects to the massive budget deficit the government has announced a raft of a sterile measures this week as it seeks to slash the deficit and restore confidence in the past so which has lost more than half of its value as we've seen so far but those measures won't come quick enough for those working in construction. it's large public infrastructure projects like this railway line in that will take the biggest hit argentina's central bank is holding interest rat

the pound against the dollar is pretty flat this hour. also discussing immigration over there. are expected to be fairly flat at the start of the equity trading day. the start of equity trading for this thursday morning is getting underway. we picked up this drifting inure of trade all -- over china. we will shortly talk about emerging markets to discuss. this is the picture on the european equity markets. we were discussing 3% treasury yields. we will discuss that with our guest. tentativeo a fairly holding pattern on this european equity session. att: take a look at the bloomberg european 500 index on the imap. this shows a breakdown industrially. you see consumer discretionary stocks getting hit, also health care and industrials. financials and energy are doing well. energy is leading the sector right now. the biggest losers are industrials and telecoms. we are seeing a good sign. long on european stocks, you want financials to lead the rally. anna: let's look at the oil price. it is going higher. take a look at the mrr function. on to

the dollars and the smooth will be lower. markets increase their fed rate hike expectations. , buy the rumor, sell the news. the stock popped. investors focus on how much these iphones can sell for. chessce, a deadly game of , hurricane florence could be the worst storm to hit north carolina in 60 years. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." president trump tweeted about the hurricane, "we got a plus is on our work in florida and puerto rico." that is what the president just tweeted about hurricane florence. go togory four that could a category 5. come the next narrative to forward is that it will be sitting there for a while. rain,slow moving, lots of lots of flooding in packing port,ries, solar, insurance, everywhere you look. david: it is always the rain. it could be the worst and 64 years. the president is focused on it. break down the implications through the next couple of hours. up twoures higher today, points. -dollar weaker. the ecb could tweak their forecast lower because of trading global demand. in the u.s., yesterday

with the peso equals one dollar back in. two thousand and one then the case though was. float and so the pesos was about two point five cents eighteen years later this is argentina does it you know it would constitute defaults in its own currency through that way at the same time you know you can't do that with foreign currency but they're constantly new investors out there that say said he'll buy these argentine bonds and they make this possible to the neighbors in this and you know they're not listening to me they're not. realizing that you know the sponsor going to get defaulted on yeah ok but argentina is an occupied country it's occupied by corrupt wall street bankers has been for almost forty years and the us media likes to say oh it's socialism the skin is killing argentina and the but they because they need a cover story to cover the facts that argentina is one of those countries that is part of the american empire building that's used by passing bad debt and getting countries into bad debt situations this is how amer

the dollar is on the defense today. euro-dollar rising. down .1%. economic data out of europe. particularly warm and exports. -- german exports. david: let's get an update on what is making headline from outside the business world with taylor riggs with the first word news. trump will announce tariffs on $200 billion of chinese products. a public comment time ended yesterday and some of america's tech companies and retailers have asked the president to reverse course. they could be heard if the u.s. imposes the tariffs and china retaliates. unlikely there will be a deal on nafta this week according to a canadian government official who says the talks with the u.s. in washington have seemed upbeat. paul krugman spoke to bloomberg about the negotiations. if thear, it looks as the status basically quo. my original prediction was that we would get cosmetic changes to nafta, enough so donald trump could say i won and business would go on. that is mostly the way it is looking. the leading candidate in the brazilian presidential race is in stable condition

safety is going to be the dollar , and treasuries in the u.s. mr.emani: janet yellen said the fed should prepare themselves for a rerun of zero rates. that tells you all the policymakers are thinking. today, because of fiscal stimulus, everything looks hunky-dory in the u.s. and will probably grow at a rapid clip. a year from today, two years from today, if that scenario plays out and the fed tightens six times in 2019, expecting u.s. growth to continue at this level is preposterous. it cannot sustain itself on the curve would be totally inverted and the dollar would be meaningfully stronger and you have a correction everywhere. in that environment where treasury rallies and rally in a meaningful way. mr. distenfeld: two more times this year. four times next year. i don't agree with that. policymakers also say the long-term average rate should be about 3%. another six times will take us to a little bit above that. that is not necessarily unsustainable. it might be a problem for the rest of the world, but the u.s. could continue to grow even if that