and what is happening with the s&p and dollar, breaking into the lows of the session, the dollar rollingr speaking at an interview, saying that being neutral would make sense. he says there is some evidence of global flowing and the fed has to factor in the global outlook. so, interesting comments coming up. warning of a global outlook, echoing fed chair powell's q&a on wednesday. a list of things that could go wrong in 2019. ♪ ♪ alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. you are looking at the hewlett-packard enterprise -- includes an interview with joe 11, ia ceo. joey levin. mexico's central bank raises key interest rates and gives a hawkish warning about rates ahead. could facekforce and pay cuts and more management changes. ,oining us from mexico city mexico's -- and amy stillman -- administration could cause another brain drain for pemex. walk us through the outlook next year and what will be the big hurdles for the company performing? : right, thank you. the next administration will take office on december 1, and what we've been seeing is that senior officials, all the way down to middle m

as of this week iran is now effectively shut out from the dollar dominated financial system u.s. sanctions on iran of snapped back into place and they're aimed right at the heart of the islamic republic's economy oil they also target shipping banks and financial entities that enable iran's oil trade the goal is to make iran curb its missile and nuclear program now if you're wondering why the oil market hasn't moved dramatically it's because eight countries got a six month waiver china taiwan india south korea greece italy japan and turkey iran's biggest customers so that helped keep a lid on any global oil price disruption for now iran's president has some rouhani has said this country doesn't need american waivers to sell oil al-jazeera same bus ravi reports from tehran. one of the reasons president donald trump gave to pull out of the twenty fifty nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on iran was the country's growing military influence in the middle east and their ballistic missiles program. so it was perhaps not a coincidence that iranians scheduled one of their largest militar

the u.s. dollar once it loses confidence by these other countries the u.s. dollar will crash and that will be something that the humpty dumpty won't be able to be put back together again because china and russia have been buying gold hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of tons of gold and raiding and they're preparing for a u.s. dollar collapse and loss of confidence in the u.s. dollar and the fed can't do anything about that and they can't do anything about ten year twenty or thirty year rates they're completely impotent when it comes to managing the long rates and if the cycle has turned and credit cycle is go. going to go negative there's absolutely nothing you can do it's like spitting into the ocean you can't stop the tonic plates of financial market mr market will always prevail mr market always prevails it could just be power whatever the fed chairman's name is robert powell her own pastoral powell you know he is he has nothing he can't stop it we have pointed out here in order at least many of our gas have is that one thing that will be different when

already now at its lowest level fourteen percent against the dollar this year four point two billion dollars worth of foreign debts have to be repaid next year and this political instability is having an effect foreign companies are withdrawing investment and tourism's taken a hit people have been scared off although really it's as safe to come to sri lanka now as it was a month ago people have been scared off this is peak season hotels have lost bookings that they will not get back over this dry winter period in sri lanka so a lot at play and a lot of impact on economy laura ok many thanks for the update. and national pressure is mounting for yemen's civil war to end the un britain and france the latest to call for sedation of hostilities take the around the port city of data the saudi ambassador coalition is trying to retake it from his the rebels local sources say at least one hundred fifty people have been killed since sunday. reports from djibouti just across the red sea from yemen. fierce fighting on one of the front lines on the fringes of the port city of her data this is one

looking at the u.s. dollarng against the yen and socgen saying you should use options to bet on gains for japan's currencies. we have the reserve been's quarterly monetary statement come through, close to give urgent between the data on its gradual rate hike and the rba continuing rates at record lows. you have seen aussie dollar lower today and we are watching the indian currency, in particularly rupee bonds, gaining with crude oil down for a fifth straight week. anna: juliette saly in singapore. let's get a first word news update with debra mao from hong kong. a: oil is set for its longest stretch of declines ever after entering a bear market with investors awaiting a weekend meeting of opec and allies. futures in new york are slipping for a 10th day, extending a dramatic plunge that had prices down over 20% in five weeks. has beenlump exacerbated by a u.s. decision to allow eight countries to continue or -- importing from iran. producer nations will be output when the meeting not to dobby sunday -- abu dhabi

is rallying the dollar is moving up that would suggest that there's still a flight into the dollar by some of these other economies that are suffering. bigger problems than the u.s. so on a net basis you've got the u.s. with trouble but ron relatives bit late speaking it's. less problematic with the most fingers in a sudden speak so it takes a take that into consideration for the mom it and the idea of inflation or hyperinflation never materialized because the credit market the bond market and these other economies is collapsing faster than the us is printing money and the net the net effect is deflation and we see that in arising dollar correct yeah look at what the fed did the friend bernanke he came they had his armageddon set a scenario you wouldn't trade you know demanded congress allow him to pay interest on banks max you know and i know that that was to bail out the banks so look at what he did so we got to pay interest and it's free money in the banks right and. he just hundreds of billions of dollars every year. meanwhile over in europe mary o. draggy does something completel

this is the dollar index. ave dropped by nearly half a percent wednesday and we are adding to that. is it that the fx traders smell the top? that is what deutsche bank is saying. they say that data dependence was -- that lipservice was paid to in the u.s. in the fed. now it is coming alive. deutsche bank saying we have approached the top. you have the dollar, indonesian repeat. a weaker dock -- indonesian rupiah. a weaker dollar and you see the strength in the rupiah. all of these emerging-market currencies are flickering around but indonesian rupiah is the vanguard this morning and the rupiah is looking -- morning. nejra: those were prepared comments from chairman powell. he talked about being a long way from neutral just a month ago. interesting if you look at the slight difference that happened in the equity market and bond market. s&p rallied the most since march, meanwhile the 10 year flattening a bit in today's session. the 10 year yield down five basis points. if we drop down below 3% it will be the firs

that is what moved the dollar today. we are off about 0.6% on the bloomberg dollar index. much does the fed way into this? vince: the fed does way into this. -- weigh into this. the neutral rate, nobody knows what that is. lovely nose with the neutral rate is, so when we talk about something we do not know what it is? it is ridiculous. the fed is on a rate hiking path they are hell-bent on, getting rates back to neutral in the event of a recession. if data weakens, they will pause. otherwise, they are going full steam ahead. scarlet: we mentioned david bloom with hsbc. he says the dollar is strengthening further, to $1.30 versus the euro. for him and others, this is about the euro weakening rather than the dollar strengthening -- the dollar being the beneficiary because of drivers pushing the euro down. vince: at the beginning of this year, i would say it is the dollar strengthening. this time of the year, because of the heightened trade issue, it is because of other currencies weakening. november 21, they have to deal with the italian budget, which did not give them any le

the result was a rally in the dollar. mberg dollar spot index, the white line, highest level so far this year. you said you are not crazy dollar bull. what do you make of the reaction yesterday? i think there are two elements. i say this with perfect 2020 hindsight. alix: of course. steven: there were people who were bargain hunters. there was no view in the market that the fed would be hawkish. they had no reason to see that. there was view that they would send a love letter to the markets expressing concern about ioer or volatility. there was a segment of the market that came in thinking maybe they could buy at a bargain. in a statement came out, perfectly flat, consistent with the previous one. they said, we want to sell bonds, we just have to go out and do it because the fed did not give us anything but we want to sell the bonds. they were thinking there was going to be a temporary bond rally if the fed gave them something and then they could sell, but then that passed. alix: what is the bigger story we are missing? st

and there is significant downside risk from the dollar point of view? >> absolutely. that's the view of the bank, that's the view of our fx strategy team. another key point is the fed and the hikes we're getting. our view is we could be getting close to a peak. so there may be the chance of one or two rate hikes next year. far less than the fed is saying if you see that come into the market the market is overowned as far as the dollar is concerned a surprise trend is for the dollar maybe to weaken again >> i wanted to touch on the chinese economy and how this factors into the outlook for the yuan the market is concerned if about a slowdown in china. the government has been trying to sure up the market and support the economy. how far can these measures actually go and have they run out of steam >> what our economists in china are saying on this, yes, the economy is slowing we see that as a trend we've been saying that for quite some time. the government is trying to stimulate, to compensate for that slowdown in the economy we think they'll struggle to fu

from the dollar and the japanese yen. look environment, it will do quite well. that will be very interesting. you look at the universe right now, if the market does not see what it likes, it sees negative growth in germany in the third quarter. -- we have seen ifo not look too pretty either in recent months. seen the bounce of growth in the first quarter. there is a view that what we're seeing in terms of slower growth ,ow is a response to the fact this is a normalization. the market is adjusting to the more negative data if we get populism, perhaps the parliamentary elections next year. that can be a negative scenario for the euro. franclikely the swiss could be finding support. pull the chartk: up, there are a lot of pound pessimism priced in. same thing price into the euro. both will end up sector -- suffering. what did you make of the comments yesterday, in a crash , he is belowrio parity. of the you make probability of that happening? >> quite extreme. it has to be recognized the forecast he is going through, he need

/yen, the yen trading firmer against the dollar. >>> coming up, we'll drill down on the battles, lost, and those still too close to call following a dramatic night in washington >> we feel good. it's been a good night for the president up to this point obviously candidates that have embraced the president, embraced his policies and that he has gone in and campaigned for, we're seeing that pay off tonight. helped put a roof over the heads of hundreds of families, he's most proud of the one he's kept over his own. brand vo: get paid twice as fast with quickbooks smart invoicing. quickbooks. backing you. - anncr: as you grow older, -your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. health

the dollar is fairly flat. the pound is weaker.n the results of those talks of brussels -- in brussels and the deal done with the european commission. now they have get the heads of state on board and they leaders in europe on board. he says it will not get through parliament, but that seems to be a drop for the start of december. chief minister has been commenting and saying there are some in the eu who are also angered by the deal. we will see how smoothly things go down, what kind of response will spain, gibraltar, france get if the latter of those two start to raise concerns about the deal at this meeting over the weekend. we have also seen weakness in the euro, so that is another story to keep an eye on. the euro weaker. we have data out of germany that seems to disappoint that pmi data on services and manufacturing, coming in weaker. that goes a way to explain that. later this morning, we will be speaking to the ceo of the american retail giant macy's. that conversation will take place at 2:30 u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪

the dollar and trump's approval rating. ing to see the correlation between the two, given the strong dollar has been such as feature of trump so far. where would you see it in the second half? megan: i would say correlation is not causation, but the dollar will strengthen in the short-term, largely because of the moves we were discussing previously. in the medium to long-term, you look at the current account deficit in the u.s., that should put downward pressure on the dollar, as should the central banks withdrawing liquidities. that you put downward pressure on the dollar, too, but that won't kick in in the middle term. anna: you don't call line between fed policy and does strength/ megan: monetary policy divergence is a piece of it. fiscal stimulus is a piece of it. but in the last six months or so, the dollar has been driven by what the pboc has been doing. anna: so it's really the chinese story in the drivers seat. megan: i think so. anna: in terms of the strength of the u.s. economy, we saw wages a component in the jobs

if you look at the dollar call, this is only the big dollar bull. , morgan stanley, they are talking about the peaking dollar and growth slowing in the u.s. we are dollar bears going into next year. we would frame this in the context of multiple dollars. dollar, this is not just a commodity basket anymore. you also have reserve currency like euro-yen and the swiss. these different currency baskets will have different inflection points. this is what you highlighted. this story will have much more macro volatility. these different economies and the different capital flows, the growth dynamics are moving away from a purely bullish dollar stance this point. alix: how much more juice can you yield in the u.s.? has that stalled out? mark: that's a big element. there is a lot of discussion of that. the view we have had is the dollar divergence is through equity markets, through credit markets. qualityhort-term low capital flow. the dollar is benefiting. risk-adjusted returns have outperformed the rest of the world. it's not really a yield of play. if you lo

or helping that matter the dollar seems to keep rising at this point. what do you see trend-wise playing out there? is that strong dollar trend still intact >> this is ironic. yes, the dollar is stronger, but for idiosyncratic reasons. it's stronger against the euro because the euro is having problems with the uk and italy it's stronger against the pound because of problems with brexit. if you look at dollar/yen it is not strong it is trading on risk-off relationships. the dollar story is mixed. i'm not bullish universally across the board dollar. the dollar is strong for specific reasons against particularly wearrencies even against the commodity dollars, but all of those are actually rising against the dollar so it's not a universal story on the dollar >> all right boris schlossberg, thank you >>> sticking with the currency side of things, cryptocurrentries is getting crushed. bitcoin plunging below $6,000. it's down nearly 60% just since january. by the way, the overall market cap of bitcoin at one point this morning below 1$100 billion >>> in corpora

it is the dollar world today. e dust items of kit jukes is he gives you an opportunity to think. -- wherethe currency can i get gain now? i needed now. -- need it now. kit: we are in an opportunity to take advantage of the next bank to send more hawkish. the swedish crime or has been a heartbreaking currency for traders. finally finding its mojo as the bank ranks whether it is going to raise rates and sounds comfortable about the world. it looks like something that has got lakes now -- legs now. the rising bond yields are going to give opportunities to get short of the australian dollar and new zealand dollar and anything else that is a proxy for the chinese u.n. because those tensions are going to come back 30 seconds after the meetings in rio dinero. that is not today. tom: that is not today's trade. for francine, may be next tuesday. with us to looking what he does always, bloomberg will have complete coverage. we complete coverage on a that special. this is an interesting lineup. the last meeting with no press

we are talking about what the dollar has been doing over the course of the last few weeks. that to me as a sign of very light stage dollar rally. think the signaling from the fed chair and everybody else has been pretty clear. indication oft the dollar starts to turn. i think there could be a sustained weakness in the dollar. guy: why do you think we have claimed more clarity on the fed? i would say we have gained less clarity. the fed has given itself optionality to a greater range of outcomes. that it about the fact is close to neutral. the channel for neutral is potentially between one and five rate hikes. simon: i would say the change in the wording itself told you. tomoved substantially away where we are now. that difference in the wording suggesting a change of thinking at the fence. what it -- at the fed. what it suggested was a fed still sensitive to markets. fed isnal under the new they are as sensitive as they always were -- the suggests caution going into 2019. it should have suggested caution at the start of 2016, they were starting the hiking cycle. there were s

so to me, it's all about the dollar. now, that being said, i don't necessarily believe the brexit talks that are coming up. a couple weeks ago, we saw positive talks coming out, dollar got hit, market rally. now we are kind of seeing the opposite. if anyone says the dollar is rallying based off of what we are seeing coming out of brexit, wh and what we are seeing with the euro and the pound, i don't buy that. that's really what's spooking the market, this big move on the upside in the dollar. liz: that is it. that's what we're seeing from a lot of the fast money out there. phil flynn, you give me your assessment here. i find it very interesting that earlier, the oil numbers were higher, the oil prices were higher. they could not hold on to any of the green in light of the fact that we did see the stronger dollar, oil is denominated in dollars, it becomes more expensive. >> yeah. i mean, initially, it looked like oil was going to try to shake it off. they were going to try to focus on the fact that opec was moving toward -

if we have escalation, the dollar is going to gain further. this is the key to trading the dollar. t is important to watch this news flow and we can xi/trump meeting happens. expectations have gotten bearish. a deal would be a big market moving event. francine: thank you so much. jens j. nordvig. in the meantime, we're getting breaking news of opec seeing demands from declining faster than expected in 2019. this is because of a slowing global economy hurting demands but they are saying there is rival supplies surging. i think they are talking about shell gas. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance, your font of wisdom. should you go to cash or load the proverbial correction vote? , john and in london, michael purves. how discrete is this equity drawdown, michael to the technology group or are we missing something? michael: if you are referring to yesterday's violence, largely apple many did, -- emanated, there is a note -- near-term tactical thing you have to consider with apple. apple relative to the overall market starts getting above that level, the risk to the upside i

so call now. >>> the dollar up 5% year to date, outpacing the euro, the canadian dollar and other majorarted to worry that the dollar's rise could hurt multinationals. will the greenback's rally continue and how can you play it joining us now is kathy lee, managing director of fx strategy at bk asset management and a cnbc contributor kathy, great to see you. >> thank you >> part of the equation on where the dollar goes is what the fed does with interest rates so if december is a foregone conclusion, does that necessarily mean the dollar is destined to rise through the end of the year? >> well, i think the dollar is probably destined to rise into year end but if we look to 2019 i think the federal reserve is really going to use the december meeting as an opportunity to tone down some of their guidance this week we got a couple pieces of economic data that could reinforce the slower momentum we are beginning to see in the u.s. economy. that's really the case they're going to have to acknowledge that and start to talk about maybe some sort of balance between rate hikes and keeping policy u

i think the u.s. dollarundamentally is overvalued and i would be a buyer if you could do it in the chinese currency and certainly in the yen >> thank you very much we will talk more in a bit after the break. jim mellon stays with us >>> many average investors were left with a case of whiplash after october's market swings, but what about high-profile hedge funds? we're seeing performance numbers from some of those leslie picker joins us with a look at how david einhorn did last month good morning >> good morning. david einhorn's green light capital posting a small gain, i said gain in october amid the big declines in the stock market that's according to what an investor told reuters late yesterday. a spokesman for the fund declined to comment, but green light says its fund rose 1% last month but it's still nursing a big loss for the year, down about 25%. green light is typically one of the first hedge funs to notify investors about monthly performance. reuters says einhorn did not provide details on what mad

i don't think the dollar breaks higher when are in a whis kerr of 18 month mys on the dollar. emerging markets priced in enormous pain. china will stimulate china was caught off guard by the trade deal they were contracting for two years in the credit markets. and i think there is enormous pain priced into the trade. >> if his trade works it's working on the back of something getting done at the end of the month with trump and xi. if that happens. >> yes. >> he will get lucky. >> you're going to see em move. >> it's a binary event are we look at a binary with g20. >> here is my point. i haven't been saying buy em all the way down this was a decision i felt based upon the result of the elections we are seeing china fiscal come through. therefore i think this is a trade. it's easy to mark the bottom look at the bottom of the range on this it's simple to follow the channel where it fails every time. >> china has been easing the whole way down look what they have done with the current. >> they cut triple r i would argue. >> you you are the one saying he we shouldn't talk about em

>> probably more the dollar, actually. with the renminbi is that they don't want it to go crashing. not just because it would irritate trump, but also because it could cause some epic outflows from china. i think the better indication is the aussie dollar. letting athey are not crash, but they are not doing much to stop the slowdown. >> to have some things that they are doing to stop the flow -- stop the crashes. but they are not fully in control. the size of the moves we saw the moves we saw this year was much bigger than many expected. is if there is escalation, where does it go? next year,t is tariffs across the board, we're .ooking at .75 renminbi we will see where that market takes it and then we'll find out what the capital controls, whether they are as effective as people believe. francine: ok, both of you will stay with us. be the next will attorney general in the u.s. now that jeff sessions is out? sources say former new jersey governor chris christie is on the short list. bloomberg sources say former new jersey go

as we move into 2019, you will see the dollar weakened. by the second half, you will see cannotly week because we be an island forever. we have been an island economy for a long period of time. willme point in time, we not to have the stimulus of the tax cuts that will help our economy continued to grow so we will have to come down to the rest of the economy is out in the world or they will have to come up. either way, the dollar will go down because of that. joe: did you see policy easing elsewhere? it's not like we eased today but there might have been a subtle shift in language. do you see central bankers are policymakers elsewhere in the world helping to close the gap by boosting their economy echo shawn: tickets hard -- economy echo shawn: it gets hard --economy? shawn: it gets hard. europe talked about how they will start scaling back and purchasing assets. they will have to follow through that -- on purchasing assets. they will have to follow through with that. the rest of the world would get easier rates. scarlet: so you see lots of

the will have an effect on u.s. dollarnd you are seeing that play out today, especially in asian currencies. anna: we see asian currencies, appetite for those. the bloomberg dollar index down .2% right now. i was going to ask about why the --nd had fallen further the with the scenarios we saw from the treasury and the effect of a no deal brexit. perhaps this is more in a dollar story. perhaps the market has decided it doesn't expect a no deal. case of thetreme bank of england, which is not many peoples base case. many people assume some kind of a deal. it is becoming a little contagious, the idea that everyone can find a compromise. there is a chance trump and president xi will find agreement on trade, italians and europe, the u.k. and european union have reached a compromise on the brexit deal. all it needs is the british parliament to reach a compromise and everyone will be happy. it is the season of people finding common ground and so there is no reason why that can't happen in the u k, as well. if there is a complete f

as of this week iran is now effectively shut out from the dollar dominated financial system u.s. sanctions on iran have snapped back into place and then aimed right at the heart of the islamic republic's economy oil they also target shipping banks and financial entity's that enable iran's oil trade the goal is to make iran curb its missile and nuclear program now if you're wondering why the oil market hasn't moved dramatically it's because eight countries got a six month waiver china taiwan india south korea greece italy japan and turkey iran's biggest customers so that helped keep a lid on any global oil price disruption for now iran's president has some rouhani has said this country doesn't need american waivers to sell oil al-jazeera same bus ravi reports from tehran one of the reasons president donald trump gave to pull out of the twenty fifty nuclear deal and really impose sanctions on iran was the country's growing military influence in the middle east and their ballistic missiles program. so it was perhaps not a coincidence that iranians scheduled one of their largest milit

and you see you have no goal of moving away from the dollar it's the dollar that's moving away from us. those making such decisions are not shooting themselves in the foot but somewhere more delicate further up the body because this instability when it comes to doing business with the dollar gives rise to a desire and it's happening all around the world to find alternative reserve currencies and create a financial system independent from the dollar. so what else is there to do but create new trade systems that work away from the u.s. currency and. that's exactly what russia has decided to facilitate with its trade partners commencing at the tenth annual russia calling investment for an initiative in moscow putin has confirmed that russia along with some partners is working on payment systems independent of swift now if you all thinking russia is acting like a rebel without legitimate cause then understand that this is actually not a revolutionary idea a similar one was floated by german foreign minister in august when he called for a european alternative to swift that came all americ

and the kiwi dollar as well. ecently because there has been a reassessment of the economic growth in both countries. report ina market terms of trade and rate expectations have adjusted higher. this has helped support both of those currencies. there was quite a divergence atween the australian dollar the end of october. ist we have seen recently the australian dollar have come back to where it direction -- thee it direction is, and quarter just confirmed that. the australian dollar and new zealand dollar were oversold a little bit. with regards to the correlation of china's currency, this is the big risk were 2019 as china's currency depreciate. will that drag the aussie in kiwi down at a time we believe the u.s. dollar will behave? talkedwe have basically about it being untradable given the wild flowchart about what would happen. that has limited a little bit now. that would you see a struggle from outside even if we do get what would be can through -- construed as positive results? >> we think volatility will re

the dollar up, bad dollar down, good. simple as that. >> and then it goes back to what is that dollar doing for emerging market economies be currencies, the notion our economy as decoupled. >> and what about earnings >> apple talked about this the $2 billion hit based upon that. >> i think that's an important point. a lot of sectors are in the u.s. market are in correction bear markets some of the economically sensitive ones there is churning going on i know we are talking about the meg megacaps because though are the. >> the maga caps. >> maga. >> we will talk about the maga gaps and megacaps. >> we are dictate how 2019 goes. kwies one we minder one year the fwu the stock market was down. there could be a red year in the s&p in the off zbroog there is a lot of focus whether the bull run is over whether or not the bull market is over. but for investors the question is it easier harder in the next six months to a year to make money? is it easier or harder than the prior six to 12 months what do you think the answer is? >>

more delicate further up the body because this instability when it comes to doing business with the dollar gives rise to a desire and it's happening all around the world to find alternative reserve currencies and create a financial system independent from the dollar. action and consequence traumas mantra of america first is now embedded in our minds and economically there was always bound to be a backlash as president of the united states i will always put america first we put on a terrorist or two hundred fifty billion dollars worth of goods and we have another two hundred sixty seven billion to go if we want to draw about from a very simple it's america first which partners hasn't he ruffled up china europe but surely it's time for an alternative and one of the innovations has been the leading nations to find independence from the dollar so what else is there to do but create new trade systems that work away from the u.s. currency and that's exactly what russia has decided to facilitate with its trade partners commencing at the tenth annual russia calling investment for initiative in mos

dollar? : i think the markets will have to look at the dollar peaking at some stage. are clear at the moment. i still think there are a few things we need to get out of the way before we see the dollar peak. the bid to be some resolution on china and the u.s. i don't think that happened in the next few weeks. the third issue is clearly what happens with other central banks. and looks like that is going to be delayed even further. lastly, emerging markets, can they come back or not? at this stage, it is hard for them to rally when there is so much concern about the yuan and euro.peak dollar will occur , but it is probably still a few months or few quarters away. francine: what happens after that? mansoor: we think the dollar will begin. if it does fall, you would expect the euro to make the highs we saw last year. they are still a long way from where we are now. the trick is to get the timing right and it is still not clear the dollar is about to start falling. francine: i know you love your bloomberg terminal. what their try to figure out is what is the best asset to

is the dollar the haven currency? >> we are making new highs in the u.s. e when everyone is worried are europe and yes, when everyone is worried about political issues in europe, the bollard -- dollar tends to do better. if you look at the sensitivity to the dollar against global risk, the dollar is not the best safe haven. 2019, with people being more concerned about political gridlock and the twin deficits, it is hard to make the case the u.s. dollar will be the best safe haven if you have a global risk off. >> what does this mean for the e.m. side? you are looking more positive when it comes to e.m. and you are seeing room for surprises. what are you looking at? critical issue for e.m. markets will be the meeting between president xi jinping and if you see a-- cease-fire, that is all p.m. investors want. they don't want a trade deal tomorrow, they just want the headline risk to go away. rishaad: stop hitting us. adarsh: that's right. if we get a cease-fire before year's end, tariffs don't go up, there is a case e.m. investors are underinvested and if you

and the euro making gains against the dollar, so the dollar effectively has lost out.'s look quickly at where we sit with the volume to get a sense of confirming or not confirming that volume. i think we are pretty much right on, smack on the averages the last 30 days. actually a little more positive in some ways to what we have seen in terms of levels, generally giving back little ground but it did not feel like the market had a particular sense of direction, and that is the european market close. a littlehe dollar is softer following greenspan's comments and economic data, down a strongerr 1% with euro. nymex crude oil has bounced back about 2%, following 12 sessions of declines, still at $56.77. we see the dollar 1.2% weaker with a stronger ruble as congress looks to weaken those sanctions potentially on russia. that has a russian ruble --lying a little, and for the peg has been weekend. let's look at some of the other asset classes. you can see across europe, you have equity indices pretty much lower across the board. today,entine is stronger the british pound has

we are seeing a bit of the retreat when it comes to the aussie dollar and the kiwi dollar. me support in the turnaround that we saw in trade. that has taken a little bit of a beating. we are seeing a little bit of downside when it comes to the aussie dollar and kiwi dollar. watching daybreak australia. a new trading week starts, weighing trading tensions. let's assess the mood with jpmorgan market strategist carry craig. we have all the headlines over trade tension, but it seemed to be more about earnings and concerns over earnings growth. we are headed towards black friday. will this change the equation? >> good morning. i think it has wrapped up. numbersook at the paper , we saw a earnings beat most measures. case when those revenues came through. those companies were punished a lot more. the companies could actually predict margins in the future. they are still pretty resilient. as we look ahead into 2019, i think the big story will be about convergence and earnings across different regions in the world. looking towards more 10% growth. it offers more potential globally.

more delicate further up the body because this instability when it comes to doing business with the dollar gives rise to a desire and it's happening all around the world to find alternative reserve currencies and create a financial system independent from the dollar. should put in has confirmed that russia along with some partners is working on payment systems independent of swift now if you're thinking russia is acting like a rebel without legitimate cause then understand that this is actually not a revolutionary idea thomas mantra of america first america first is now imbedded in our minds and economically there was always bound to be a backlash one of the innovations has been the leading nations to find independence from the dollar e.u. member state will set up a legal entity to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with iran and this will allow european companies to continue to trade with iran in accordance with european union low and could be open to other partners in the world that came after american pressure on its business with iran threatening sanctions in place and to add

what is the key level for euro-dollar? itiation of the euro way over decade ago, 112. what is the level below that which has chris turner's attention? chris: i think we are talking big figures now. probably a 110 figure. a small technical level just below 112 or so. certainly, that is the direction of travel for the time being. that is the thing. may be brexit news. we have seen occasionally brexit and sterling drug the euro with it. brexit is a problem, not just for the u.k., but europe as a whole. patrick: we are long dollars still, but we have been reducing it month on month. the dollar has interest-rate differentials and much stronger economic growth. with democrats taking the house, you might have political issues in the u.s. if the mueller investigation or of democrats want to investigate the white dollarwe are still long because the economy is still not accelerating. i think political risk may start to balance out in the coming year. francine: if you had to get one call right, i guess it is or dollar call because it

but, again, the dollar is on the way up. 10 companies due earnings today. >> oil price falling 73, when it rupee.o just one basis point. go in after how things the holiday. >> 5% back up. open is a little bit later on. is in sydney with an update. >> the justice department is selling millions of residential mortgage-backed securities, by, quote, knowing repeatedly making fraudulent statements about the loans. they underwrote, managed or offered. the bank says the suit is not supported by the facts or the law. stocksatching asian after the washington post u.s. f.d.a. is impose strict -- they're worried about the people numbers of young trying vaping and e-cigarettes, although overall, smoking rates lowest on record. the bank of australia has given thepbeat assessment of economy, helping to spare inflation. quarterly statement reiterated that the higher interest rates are higher to be itropriate at some point but says there's no strong case for a move at the moment. the bank also warned of risks the worsening trade war and a w