well max you brought up two important points one regarding the dollar we always quote the dollar price of gold and the banks and central banks are obviously concerned about the dollar price of gold because the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and when you mention though it going to new all time highs in dollar terms it's already at new all time highs in australian dollar terms very close to new all time highs in canadian dollar terms you look at the indian no rupee the iranian ryall you know you name it gold is doing exactly what it should be as the currency is devalued and be the dollars turn in the barrel again before too long and at that point you'll see gold in dollar terms go to new all time highs to your second point about the banks and corruption. over but since middle of december we're seeing gold rally forty or fifty dollars which is you know decent we'll take it hey that's three four percent however the same time period and we mention this alchemize gold this pretend gold that gets created on the comix alone there have been about one hundred and ten thousand one h

the aussie dollar, higher against the u.s. dollar. onsumer confidence down, falling the most since 2015 and that is on the back of the global uncertainty in the u.s. china trade relationship and with brexit deal. manus: thank you very much. ceo, he will their go at the end of this year. he is to retire by the end of the year. this is a company at the forefront of the challenges of the fast moving consumer goods industry last year. the board has initiated a process to name his successor. oor is to retire at the end of the year. there you go. in terms of the performance by rakesh kapoor. he has been there for just over seven years and in terms of -- he is 60 years of age, he has been there 7.3 years. he joined 2011. his peers delivered 10%. the search is on. let's get to desley humphrey. what have you got for us? theresa may's brexit deal has suffered the biggest defeat of any government in modern u.k. history. lawmakers voted by a majority of 221 against the eu withdrawal agreement with programs that conservatives uniting with anti-brex

let's talk about the dollar. rt showing the bloomberg dollar index is closing in on its 200 day moving average. we are stronger in today's session but the trend has been downward. will we continue to see dollar weakness in 2019 and what implications does that have for your investing landscape? >> we can see the dollar plateauing if there is no fed hike. that is a likely possibility. in terms of implication, back to the trade war dispute, having a dollar plateauing this year would mean that we will have to stabilize the u.s. trade balance and relieve some pressure in this u.s.-china trade talks. that dollar ine the trade deal, imo am looking at the russell 2000. i picked up some key benchmarks, there is this palpable sense of joining the dots, morgan stanley to call ais to early bottom. they want to see something from the dovish tone to dovish action . what would be a dovish action? >> it could be not to hike this year and give the market rights about pricing. nejra: thank you. for daybreak europe. bloomberg market

if you look at the long positions in dollar, there are positions in the market looking for long dollarsee germany, japan may be at risk for recession. china vying for more stimulus. is the long dollar play such a bad idea right now? there are multiple things plaguing the dollar right now. failing u.s.-term, growth exceptionalism and rising u.s. deficit is negative for the dollar. we are looking for a catalyst to be sure dollar. a think we have that in the form of a dovish fed. we are turning more bearish on the west dollar. we think softer u.s. yields should be on the dollar. what about the federal reserve? this will be key to read we still have an interest-rate differential taking place. it should be driving money into u.s. assets at least. we have the ecb or bank of japan in no danger of raising their base rates. you are right. i am still in favor of the dollar. markets work on a forward-looking basis. it is important to see, where do markets the interest going? that is where things are looking less constructive for the dollar. the fed is seen as shifting in its policy stance from fo

chief economist says the dollar. old bloomberg the central bank would be powerless to stop a move with the currency but eight negative lending rate could slow it down. the forecast for the end of this year is 108. the inflation rate remaining low in japan, the yen is a on course to strengthen further. currently it is 10 yen lower than indicated. there is a possibility it could go ¥10 higher. i don't think it will hit the 70's but the 80's is quite likely. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am selina wang, this is bloomberg. check with sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. the aussie market seems to be in positive territory. sophie: we have aussie shares ascending for a third day. the asx 200 gaining led by tech and research players. aussie yields rising ahead of isember home loan data which expected to show a decline in three months. quarterly data is on tap for postingminers, despite a 20% drop in sales revenue as product pricing fell due to soft market conditions in china. inc

big move against the dollar. we saw basically the turkish president snow been -- snubbing earlier on, and elsewhere, we are seeing dollar strength creeping back in. vonnie: we did see a nice little turnaround once again in the last few minutes. we were lower in the s&p 500 and now we are up .2, but earlier, we were well up over 1% for most major indices. a nice volatile day as traders are busy. the best performing the s&p 500's union pacific, having appointed a coo and pleasing investors, up about .9. the 10 year yield unchanged at 2.7 percent, still looking for direction, and given that trade is still on everybody's mind and will continue to be, in spite of political developments, which we will see later tonight how that they are holding on to the gains following the optimistic tone yesterday. guy: you are right. trade is the narrative right now, and that goes to kind of our question of the day, which asks, what do investors need from a trade view?what do they need to get out of this trade deal? the more positive

rging markets that is down to the dollar. nds like a very simple equation, if that is true , all we have to do is wait. convinced?kes you so >> on the trade deals? vonnie: on the emerging markets. >> announcing they will, but in theas a big factor asian emerging markets, but the high-yield markets, the ones that did terribly in 2018, argentina, the rest of latin america to a degree, are much more sensitive. they could do well this year. but it has the big thing of holding the emerging-market and there will always be a strong dollar. --a dollar does gently slide if a dollar does gently slide, i think the emerging markets will be an obvious way to make money. are veryof the markets --, there are strategy notes around and there is not a strong deal on anything this year, and anything that name make money -- that might make money would be the emerging markets. and the dollar does tend to reflect this and it tends to be slowed. really ready to commit, what is going on in the markets? noise, i can see that people are nervous, it's v

the dollar near the october lows. is that a dollar story or are they going for fiscal ease? nsbury's will play into that. china trade talks could have a material impact. that's the state of play on the markets. 79 days before britain leaves the eu. theresa may has her work cut out for her to get a deal through parliament. last night she was handed a defeat. the biggest impact could be to galvanize lawmakers when the biggest brexit vote happens next tuesday. petr krpata is chief fx and rates strategist at ing. it looks as if parliament is doing everything it can to stop a crashing out with no deal. if we look in the amendment put to the house and passed in terms of constricting theresa may and her ability to maneuver on tax going forward. >> you are right. trend of u.k. politics over the past few months and the quarter. whatever theresa may came up with, it was not good enough. thes it looks very like deal will be watered down. it is very important to know at this point, even the parliament is what it did yesterday, the default option is a hard brexit. from that perspective an

the question is, what will those dollars buy? the united since government pulled out every stop in 2008 to make sure that there were enough dollars. the other day, writing about general electric. going into the crisis, general electric was a aaa rated company. they had the greatest balance sheet of any industrial company. turns out that it didn't. it was funding itself with an imprudently-large volume of loans called sharp paper. no one was willing to roll those loans over for ge during the height of the crisis. brian: do they call the loan? james: they called the government. the fdic was one of the federal agencies that leapt to the rescue of the then-aaa rated ge. that is how extreme and extraordinary an intervention. people say, it won't happen next time. oh yeah, it will happen next time. i don't think the government will run out of dollars to pay. the fed will furnish the dollars. you have a series of milestones, 193 years to get to $1 trillion. this year, in this time of ostensibly bounding prosperity, we are expected to run

again, the dollar factor in the mix. vonnie: interestingly we started the day off a little slowly in the u.s., with mixed markets for a while, but now getting a by's bounce. up 8/10 of 1%. the tightening of financial conditions have may be the european session a little worried overnight, and not carried into the u.s. for the moment we are seeing the dow up 3/10 of 1% in the s&p 500 up 6/10 of 1%. pg&e is one stock i was going to point out. even of the s&p and higher, pg&e is the worst performer. the energy company obviously having the wildfire problem still. rumors about it being in consideration for bankruptcy. some analysts are saying this might be ship that might begins mentioned, -- mentioned this manship, games might be hokum, might be posturing. guy: european stocks slipping a little bit, but good news when it comes to growth this week. they've even got the american delegation coming through in china as well. the chief market strategist for jpmorgan joining us now. happy new year. is the bottom in? guest: maybe for

the same trip costs three dollars on the mini buses to subsidize city buses full to capacity. i feel very free not a single problem we just boarded the bus and paying three dollars has come to an end it's a thing of the past. that got to go but it is that we are happy with what the government's done and we wish for it to continue the commuter taxis should be put off the road because now we can afford to buy some food and pay rent and we're very happy and you know not know florida is not i think. this was back in mid january when the government more than doubled fuel prices. police and security forces were called out to crush massive protests and public looting. now the government has intervened to calm the situation but not everyone's happy. with a government only subsidized fuel for the buses and they should do the same for all small commuter taxi. i don't think if you and if you wanted to look good on the phone but what about what the government is least large buses from private companies because the state fleet has shrunk due to years of mismanagement and corruption critics

financial grid and i think in twenty one thousand we're going to see the repercussions of that the u.s. dollar germany. facilitating swift which is the global interbank payment system and as you point out they can do platform people to comply sanctions to people and if you have a market like oil or any commodity in the world it trades in dollars and to participate in those markets you need to buy dollars first and those dollars go centrally through new york and they go through swift and so to apply sanctions to a country that's thought stepping in law and with you. you know they can simply do platform them faster than you can say you know join a song and that's not going to be the story going forward as germany and other countries in europe and elsewhere decided no we're going to create a competitor and we're going to open this market up i don't know why you're talking like that through the east. what i'm going to say is that i think you're going to see an excel aeration of d. platforming you're going to see an acceleration of d. platforming of voices in the political space on twitter you're g

and gold and silver have been moving inversely to the dollar how high can the dollar go it's on the you know on that dollar index as almost often quoted where he's right on the charts we're in the mid range of the dollar over the last thirty years it can go a lot higher what kind of problems that bring for other countries or trade or whatever happened in one thousand know what problem is as a pariah it crushes all the other currencies and that causes tremendous inflationary pressure what is the trend for russia and china accumulating more gold going to continue it will for the last seven years the three of them have been buying more gold than anyone in the world but they still don't have as much as a number of very unusual countries like france and of course the united states let me ask you this if i see a plane a fly on a flew and said the flight of the flay let's fly and then the fly sort of the flay and they both flew through the flu what would you say i would say she was one who when would find a flea or a fly flowed in her lemonade would continue to drink and swallow. thank you

tree is the last remaining dollar store where every piece of merchandise costs the same amount of money there's reason that everybody else has transitioned to the different model. at the very least they should get a pilot program to see how multishared pricing would work still, starboard's ideas for what to do with family dollar they're a different story. as they see it, dollar tree has failed to integrate the family dollar brand and at this point the best thing they could do, well, it would be to give up and just sell this part of the business company bought family dollar for $8.5 billion in 2015 the market is currently valuing it at $1 billion to $3 billion and in their view, a stand alone dollar tree would get a much better valuation it's best of breed and their stores are great they have such fabulous merchandise, look at this one. it's a hat i always love places that tell you what the merchandise is. questionable what it was it's a hat now, starboard does believe family dollar can be turned around but they think this is the kind o

dollar,sachs is the credit suisse says get ready for a dimmer dollar. exibility in the fed is the word. what is that mean on the balance sheets? the yuan is stronger this morning. is that going to continue as the chinese go after another rrr cut? will there be more policy response on that side, rather than the monetary side? let's roll it over and have a look at the oil markets. goldman sachs is everywhere, but they are calling their brent price down for this next year, just over $60 per barrel, they are talking about supply being the dominant force. over the past two days we have rallied in goldman is resetting the agenda on crude entomology -- crude and commodities. happy new year. manus.goldmanear, is targeting 93 on the dollar index , and it hasn't been below that level since may. we saw all three benchmarks gain more than 3% on friday. it wasn't quite as good as the post-christmas rally, but still one of the best of the bull markets. what drove that was largely the comments from fed chair jay powell, and the blowout jobs report. looks like we could

i don't think the government will run out of dollars to pay. the fed will furnish the dollars. you have a series of milestones, 193 years to get to $1 trillion. ofs year, in this time ostensibly bounding prosperity, we are expected to run a deficit in excess of $1 trillion, and the tab on the public debt will be well in excess of $1 trillion. what is so significant about $1 trilliontive increment to the gross debt this year is that it got no air time during the midterm elections of 2018. nobody said a word. it was the cold button issue of the election. i find that significant. we have become very complacent with this debt and our tolerance for what creditors are doing. brian: you hear constantly than members of congress are short-term fingers in the senate and the house, and they'll be gone by the time the problems, and they can spend this money and not worry about it. we ared in your article, sending out more money than we are taking in. 75% of the americans get government -- money from the government in some form of che ck. ises: part of the problem people don't much care abo

we have seen the yen it do very well against the u.s. dollar. ee that continuing yak >> i think we will see this ongoing yen strength, particularly if we are at the end of the fed hiking cycle. for thebe difficult u.s. dollar to gain much traction against the currency like the yen the. if it is a risk on world, the euro does well. but the german and japanese economy compete in a lot of areas. where do you see that going from 2019? it will be an interesting way of seeing how the global economy will develop. >> in 2017, we saw a bigger european equity story. suppose today you have a few interesting dynamics. japanese yields are actually higher. the yen less attractive than the euro. between a difference japan and the euro areas. have any major structural issues that europe does. japan has a very high government debt level. is not as imminent as the other regions. japan is a lot more attractive. >> thank you. next, we will bring you are stocks on the move so far, including ryanair. .hat's a stock is falling foreboding omens. this is bloomberg. ♪ thi

. >> i'm interested in where goes the dollar. if your pricing in a hawkish fed and the trade deal, dollar rattle the to emerging markets that much pushing higher today. where do you see the dollar going? how does that impact the rest of the asset classes? >> obviously a crowded long trade through 2018. as people got more dovish, the rally stalled. the key is that even if we assume we get a trade deal and may be get a hike this year, not a crazy, hawkish fed, but not as not asto no rate cuts, dovish as some had hoped. i think the fact that the dollar islds and the fed position tighter than the ecb or boj means on a relative basis regardless of what the fed does, the dollar will not go down that much. ,ven if it is a more dovish fed the fed is still more hawkish than the ecb or boj, and the real rate of interest rates in the u.s. is so much higher that i think it will be difficult to see the dollar really fall a lot. i think you would have to see a recession scenario in the u.s. where people felt the u.s. was catching up to economic

the dollar.gainst the yen, it accurately predicted what would happen. this is not an abnormal move as the dollar moved down, the euro kicked in on that the proactive hot gun here was the dollar/yen relationship that spilled into the euro, but the euro's time will come. the point of this is is that fx markets, particularly the dollar, if they get above last year's closing high around 9750 and change, it will be a big potential upside because these central banks are caught right now in a lot of cross currents around the globe, whether it's trade, whether it's brexit, whether it's economic horsepower in general, china, germany, all the data points, so the stock market's giving it back, that's affecting the dollar, but the point is is that the comprehensive list of other central banks outside the u.s. really demonstrates, in my opinion, a lack of will to normalize bad timing they shoul have begun earlier, even small bites demonstrate to the market that the party can't go on forever, but yet, it seems

the yen surged nearly 4% against the dollar in a span of minutes. largest swing since the 2016 u.s. presidential election. let's welcome daniel, head of fx strategy for north america. great to have you with us. but mr. with this question. how much of the crash was because of just acting during thin liquidity times and how much was it because of real people actually really wanting to? >> you never know exactly but i would say the dollar-yen characteristically over time has things like this. it is not atypical. you go before the days of machines and things like that and it is an unbalanced exchange rate. investors are big holders of overseas assets, the creditor economy. if they get nervous or consent of the financial conditions and start to reduce their fx exposure, the engine strengthen really fast. it's happened before many times. >> japanese investors have pretty strong demand for foreign assets in 2018 p will that provide respite for the yen in 2019? there is a risk that appetite for foreign assets and foreign bonds in particular is less robust ne

the question is what will those dollars buy. the united states government pulled out every stop in 2008 to make sure there were enough dollars. i was reviewing some of this the other day. we were writing about general electric. general electric, going into the crisis was a a.a.a. rated company. it was the greatest -- had the greatest balance sheet of any industrial company except it turns out it didn't. it was funding itself with an imprudently large volume of short dated loans called commercial paper which you had to roll over every 90 days or so but it turned out no one was willing to roll those loans over for g.e. during the height of the crisis. so -- brian: what do they do, they call the loan? james: no, they call the government. the fdic of all in congressional institutions was one of the federalagencies that leapt to the rescue of the then a.a.a. rated g.e. that is how extreme and extraordinary an intervention. people say, it won't happen next time. oh yeah, it will happen next time. i don't think the banks will not have d

the u.s. dollar is rolled reserve currency including swift which is this bank to bank transfer you know ledger that's kept amongst the big banks of the world and by cutting iran off you have forced the country to adapt to adopt and to come up with some new ideas and to make new alliances which is net detrimental. all to the dollar as wald reserve currency and you know the thing about kites is that they fly against the wind you know that's how things rise that's what evolution is the arc of progress is against difficulty so you give iran the difficulty like this and they will rise above it you put sanctions on russia and their g.d.p. now is ready to eclipse the united kingdom ok so you have to be careful who you're fighting with because if unless you can absolutely beat them year opening up possible losses so what she worries about is not iran like she says their economy is small and that's not the point the point is the experience and the success and the learning process that will happen to europe an

it's the dollar. know what we keep underestimating the strength of the green back here, the weakness of nearly every other currency under the sun number one they had to cut the estimates this season. and when the fed stops tightening it means that the dollar can go down and at last which is what happened today how much does this matter? yesterday when i got a chance to interview tim cook about the latest quarter i was struck by how we strong when the dollar hurts sales. comes with the territory our ears are like i'm not listening. like the goal of -- in lord of the rings. but a strong dollar is bad news for american companies trying to compete with foreign rivals especially when we're talking about profits with a high price point like iphones what's driving this? we have much more higher interest rates than others and foreign investors want to buy our bonds and they need to buy dollars. while the economy is decelerating, it's still growing faster than europe our inflation relatively tame. employment, t

-- the dollar positioning on top and euro-dollar below. >> we have not had new data becausethe government shutdown. what happenedink to euro-dollar at the start of the year, a little bit short of the euro, we have had a little bit of correction. it has been very difficult for euro-dollar to break higher. that is because the markets are taking on board the weakness in german data. the german economy in the second half of last year and the clear implications of that for ecb policy. the ecb have indicated they could be hiking interest rates. interest rate could be going up in september. the market is worried that may not happen. worsenedoutlook has since the start of the year. let's talk about real rates. i've a chart that shows they are not in japan and europe. is this one of the reasons you are more positive on u.s. equities? there must be other reasons other than real rates. yes, slightly above zero, but in general, rates are very low. they are not going up in a hurry. that cannot be positive for stocks. equity market outlook should be supported by very low interest rate env

the dollar as well as the yen giving relative risk aversion today.-confidence on theresa may at 7:00 p.m. local time in london, about 3:00 a.m. thursday morning if you're still up for us in hong kong. i think markets think she is going to survive this confidence vote, but the next question is, what is next? are we closer to a no deal brexit or a second referendum? rishaad: or maybe no brexit? it looks like everything is in the cards at the moment and we will have a currency whipsawed all over the place as a consequence of what we have been hearing out of the u.k. we have a lot of commentary on the subject. we are talking to many people about it today. >> i think they have to defer, the have to delay. i think the prospects of a second referendum are rising. i think the prospects of no brexit at all are rising. >> they need to do -- to be really realistic. there's not much time left. virtually now is between no deal or revoking article 50. these are some of the difficult processes theresa may another politicians have to deal with. so this is all going

let's look at the picture. dollarshing lower and that is giving a lift to commodity prices. look at chinese markets and the rest of the benchmarks. southeast asia, the philippines is the only one down. it has been a good week and we showed you the two-year pushing lower following comments out of the fed. rishaad: busy week ahead. china trade balance, inflation numbers will be key reading for the rmb and what they do. all food for thought on monday. thursday -- wednesday, a vote expected. yvonne: have a great weekend. ♪ ♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, xiaomi tumbles. china's number two smartphone maker losing billions of dollars in market value. has the global smartphone slowdown come for them? plus bitcoin strong start the year and taking a turn for the worse. the cryptocurrency dropped the indicative for the rest of the year. and the bridge builder? elon musk is no stranger to brash talks, so why does beijing

it rose 5% against the dollar. ws exports may have fallen in december, oh that would be for a second straight month -- and that would be for a second straight month. the commerce ministry will release the first monday. ramy: let's do a preview of the markets open in japan and south korea. sophie kamaruddin, we are already seeing positivity in australia. could we expect more? sophie: it looks set to continue when we see trading open in korea and japan. the kospi could extend for a fifth straight day gains. the nikkei has been out -- underperforming the topix. the boj could cut back buying. panasonic,toyota and the companies are planning a joint venture on ev batteries -- ev batteries. indicate news is reporting suzuki has developed a new plan to boost capacity by double digits. and look at sunday motor, which is -- hyundai motor, which is upping investments in various places. we are watching companies like oci on china's review of antidumping measures of poly silicon imported from the u.s. and korea. ramy: we are cou

the case for dollar weakness against the majors is less clear. i understand your dollar weakness call and i know you want to play that against the euro. what makes you think the eurozone growth can't get any worse in the second half of 2018? guest: that's a good question. the way i look at european growth, we've had a terrible second half of last year. europe was almost in recession. but there's enough underlying drivers which could lead to european strength this year. one is oil prices have fallen on average, the past six or seven months. also, you have to remember europe has had an austere fiscal policy. we are seeing lots of signs europeans are loosening the fiscal strings, whether italy, now germany talking about cutting taxes. macron reversing taxes. -- reversing tax hikes. those could see positive turnarounds. nejra: some of your notes, actually too late to be bearish. good to have you in this morning. he will be continuing the conversation with us on bloomberg radio at 7:30 a.m. u.k. time. as earnings season kicks in, groupthink is spreadi

moves if the dollar rises all prices will go up but if the dollar goes down nothing goes back down. consumers are holding onto their money no one knows how much longer the crisis will last owners of cafes and restaurants are being hit hard many customers have been staying home. it's a time of survival nothing else. just survive the mantra of most people in argentina today people here hope that the situation will calm down after all the inflation rate is expected to go down by half this year to around twenty three percent. gasoline in zimbabwe takes days to get and it's now the most expensive in the world costing three dollars and thirty three cents per liter this for a nation where the majority lives in poverty inflation and shortages have returned to zimbabwe and with them anger at the government. who would do that just to get those who are good is good look. i do not is not it's a grim outlook for president emerson ganga whose rise following the thirty seven year rule of robert mugabe suggested better times were ahead or at least more stable ones markets reacted positively fo

in peril no the japanese stone i mean the chinese don't either the chinese are convinced that the dollar is going to remain strong because it can simply get all the money at once from europe and from its satellites so it can drain the satellites for a while so you've got a chance modification of the global economy and you've got a strong dollar that's a fair summary of your predictions for twenty one thousand for the time being yes very good well that's going to do it for michael hudson now let's go over to michael ten to see what he thinks about twenty nineteen might call past. him to for addiction that have come fast and furious year after year is that china will be collapsing this year twenty nineteen going to finally be the year that their debt collapses yeah i think so and i have been predicting the collapse of china each and every year just that their rate of growth the second derivative would be slowing profusely i think china from all indications that i can tell is probably in a recession right now and they cannot comp the stimulus that they put on in two thousand and sixteen aga