we've already seen the ecb run up against its limits. you see the p is very different for different countries. alessandro: the ecb has been size and the economic the populace never country. this is a hard limit and it's very unlikely they will reflect this. distributed onbe this, and depending on availability. mark: giving an end date to the program, september 2018. are we hearing the whole of the ecb is behind that? or is that according some division? but september could well be the end date. alessandro: that's probably way too early to say. what's clear that from other reporting that there is some division within the firm end date for the program. when he gets to september, will there be some tapering? what will be sure is the ecb will keep rates unchanged for quite a long time. this is something that policymakers want. having a longer tapering already proves the rate increase or wetland 2019. into 2019. mark: alessandro speciale, thank you. richard, given the euro was earlier,anged, up .4% what does that tell us about the market reacti

so the ecb has to taper. something else in mario draghi's toolbox he can use to try and boost the inflation number, like forward guidance, or some other type of tool? has compared to other central banks, virtually unlimited powers in order to implement the necessary to hide its inflation objective. we take it as a given that for technical reasons, self-imposed constraints need to reduce government, that for example, there are many other things they could keep purchasing. one approach they could be adopting would be to increase the purchases of other assets. increase the purchases -- they could start purchasing bank debt for reasons that are not that easy to justify. they have excluded quantitative easing they could embark on quantitative easing with asset classes. they have a lot of ways to go if they wanted to seriously raise inflation for the primary mandate. about talk percent, is that a problem for mario draghi? >> this relates to a combination of fed an ecb policy. the currency implications for ecb and f

the ecb keeping rates unchanged. se program extending the bond by program at 30 billion a month from january through september 2018, keeping the option to increase the size or duration if needed. the ecb reiterated to reinvest maturing key assets. a better euro weakness coming through at 1.1785. , no bid for the euro. matt miller is outside in frankfurt. i feel like mario draghi did not even really need to show up for this. mr. market could have done this himself or herself. it is exactly in line with consensus. some people are saying maybe they will only go to 40 and stay a little dovish, and jpmorgan saying maybe they will go further to 20 and get a little bit hawkish. consensus was on 30 and that is what they did and consensus was also for nine months. consensus said they will not hike until thee end, until long after the qe program is done. mario draghi job owning the ning the- jawbo purchases of 30 billion a month and they are always willing to get the bazooka out again. they reserve to write -- the right to spen

up next, the ecb and that interview with novartis. ♪ manus: xi elevated. s what does it mean for the world's second-largest economy. italy's finance minister warns of disposal of italy's nonperforming loans. gettingst be careful in the speed right and timing right. if we do it too -- [no audio] the swift transition deal with the eu. the cabinet meets today to discuss what britain wants from a future trade pact. getting the speed right and timing♪ manus: you are welcome to "daybreak: europe." it is our flagship morning show in the city of london, i am manus cranny. anna: we are getting some numbers coming through. a little bit of an update. uma saying they are coming in -- puma saying their cells are coming in. they are talking about some part of their business, a partnership with selena gomez. is what wouldon the driver be here? the at leisure trend. [no audio] casual casual wear this at the jim, cafe -- at the gym, cafe -- [no audio] at the start of the trading day. manus: the big risk and that market was amazon, the possibility that might get involved in

does it influence the ecb at all? at the moment, it will not be a key focus for the ecb. the key focus will be on the economy and inflation and how they will pan out this tapering plan. between sizebate of tapering and the timeframe over which they will continue the next stage of quantitative easing. all things will be in the air. the markets will listen closely. jon: let's start with mario draghi and how he will navigate in the news conference. >> it is a local issue. if you look at spanish bond will look to that. if there is no disruption in markets, he will put that issue to one side. issue, thebecome an will get more interesting. it is remarkable how quiet the market has been about this issue. >> how important is it they signal there will not be a rate hike until 2019 and how does it affect how long extension goes for? chris: it is important they don't rush. as they pull that forward, it will concern markets. there is no sense that will happen. data has been softer than it was three or four months ago. this. not pushing hard on it is very gentle. they have been trying

marc: the ecb is very much about transparency. y, they tried to guide market expectations. what they want to do is avoid disruptions to the market by having small buying continuing well into next year. for me, that means the divergence continues. the balance sheet will shrink by 30 billion this quarter. it will shrink by about 150 billion the first half of next year. the ecb balance sheet will expand by 180 billion euros this quarter. at 30 in six months billion, that is 180 billion to expand by while the fed is shrinking. of: what do you make persistence of low-level political risk in europe? obviously we have the czech republic election. not a huge country on most people's radar, but then electing a eurosceptic populist, the issues in catalonia not going away, looks like it will be an explosive week potentially there. we have elections coming up early next year in which the five-star movement and the northerly appeared to be doing well. scarlet: do not forget brexit, too. joe: end the ongoing mess with brexit. the economy seems t

the ecb function on the bloomberg, the adjusted net flow as it stands right now. -- the ecb is buying more than is issued and more. the short bunds is a tough trade. kathleen: absolutely, but the rules have to change at some point because if there is a scarcity in bonds and at the same time you have unrest across europe, you still have italy and spain to deal with, they may not want to be driving yields that low. so i think they have to be careful there. i think asia is something we want to talk about, with china asserting itself and abe's election, they are looking at changing the constitution and a a military buildup happening in asia. that an investment will pull money away from the u.s. jonathan: interesting: and into -- interesting, and into where? kathleen: back home in japan. jack: can i jump in before you leave europe? wasone country you did not the u.k. jonathan: we will get there, don't worry. jack: we are not quite out of there yet. for us, the best place we had short duration has been in the u.k. it is a much more open economy. the lower pound has cont

who matters more, the ecb or the fed? >> when we talk about quantitative easing, the ecb matters more. the fed has already been clear by what a plan to do with that. lisa: how many hikes do you think we going to see from the fed next year? >> i think we are going to get a quarterly base going forward. growth backward -- even though inflation is below where they would like it to be, that is the norm. above 2% aboutly a quarter of a time -- a corner of the time. you still need to take some insurance out. if you wait until you see inflation, it is too late. particularly because everybody is piled into more risk. this is the problem, markets seem less liquid than they used to be a cousin of the lack of volatility. if the fed does something and goes hard, they're more likely to break the system. everyone is sticking with us. coming up, the auction block. walmart sells bonds to refinance debt as it battles against amazon. ♪ ♪ >> this is bloomberg real yield. this week the u.s. treasury sold nearly $190 billion in bonds. we will

central banks, we got the riksbank and ecb. some of the share prices and what is going on here. we are going to bring you the stocks to watch and talk about banks. central banks, banks, barclays and santander, all in focus. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: 54 minutes into the equity market sessions. let's get the details with nejra cehic. nejra: the focus on bank earnings. banks are not the worst performers, those are actually tech stocks. we are seeing a number of these banks trading lower from a barclays, and deutsche bank. the big story is over trading. jes staley said he would not panic after one bad trading quarter. he has had three. in thes posting a drop third quarter, trailing most wall street rivals the reported an average 22% decline. he did perform better on this front than deutsche bank. for barclays, detects profit also came in -- pretax profit also came in underestimates. europe's biggest investment bank keeps losing ground to its rivals. income more than doubled as the bank lowered costs and headcount and we are seeing

in europe, there was nothing new from the ecb. iedt his options open, to give the taper as dovish lee as possible, but the markets have gone, this is exciting. at a time when you have this narrative shift, it is not the time to worry about long-term fundamentals that have been driving -- drawing your dol lar higher. years, we haveo a proper correction in euro-dollar on our hands. bundswhere do you see the going? we are stuck in a range were even if we move down to four or up to 46, we still don't seem to be able to get out of it. what is going on with the incredibly low german bund? i'm going to disappoint you, matt. i'm not sure if we break out of that range soon either way. yields are just not going to go particularly far and , globally webunds have had a run-up and i think that might be coming to an end. whoever we get as fed chair, i think it is hard for 10 year yields to climb much further. yellen or powell, it will be seen as dovish. we have this premium priced in and that will come out. if we get taylor, it will be hawkish o

day, the all-important day when we're hearing about the ecb's plans for tapering we have one other central bank that's come out with a report. not just the riksbank, but also the norges bank. i want to show you what's happening to the european markets. this is how we're looking. we're probably unchanged we can bring up the heat map there you go inching slightly to the upside dominated by earnings today. banks especially they're the biggest faller on the sector al basis let's show you how we're shaping up for the trading day these are the indices. we're pretty much all in the green, only with marginal increases to the upside. the ftse 100 up by 0.25% the xetra dax up by 0.2% still some caution ahead of that ecb meeting and no major positioning or risk taking in the markets. i mentioned the banks, they are underperforming. let's get to the biggest fallers when it comes to sector basis. banks, one of them to the down side on the upside, household goods and basic resources doing better. >>> back to the banking sector shares in deutsche bank are down

the ecb has spoken with the boe and the fed next week.e look at whether any of the central banks are in for a major surprise. where european equities are trading right now under 30 minutes before the end of the friday session. down by one point 5% today, we had the catalan parliament voting to implement an independent state. spain senate giving spain the power to take control over catalonia. the plot thickens, the imf down by 1.5%. the stoxx 600 is up for the six week in seven. the euro down for a second consecutive day, over two days since the ecb announced the whole roster news yesterday. the euro down almost 2%. the biggest today declines in september. we have the 10 year rising today. , weerday, with the reverse saw european bond yields declined on the back of the ecb news. i just want to get to ubs today, chief executive sergio ermotti reposting expectations for a share buyback. he talked to down the prospect of dividends increasing proportion of the profit. we saw shares lower by 1% and also subdued client activity in the fourth qua

more than 1% after the ecb decision. top of thisee the club.word news with jessica summers. jessica? hours.on jumped after chicken run groceries, turnout gadgets, and distilled cell strongly online. amazon sees more of the same in the coming months. it sees highs of $60 billion in september. the wheels maybe coming off of catalonia. separatist lawmakers are unhappy with the president pulling back from secession as authorities finalized lands to force them out. -- twosident says lawmakers quit his party. minister's business quit because efforts to find a solution failed. he had been the most vocal opponent of independence and set the cabinet. he is the first member of the cabinet to resign, saying attempts to spark a dialogue came to nothing. to talkleaders convene their next step. it's difficult to explain what they affected of this is on the spanish economy. we have started to make some estimates. it is too early. the recovery is very strong, very robust. if this has a negative impact, it will not be significant. >> the u.s. is stepping up tex

it is a crucial week for the ecb. rvey suggests the central bank is set to half monthly bond purchases next year. stanford university economist john taylor is a current front runner. kit, great to have you on the program. will get tothink the markets overall? is it just who is in charge of the fed next? >> i think it is probably tax policy and the fed governor is the big mover rather than anything else. francine: it is impossible to guess who comes next, but how whetherwe know about the fed governor will be picked on monetary policy or regulation? kit: donald trump does not only have one appointee to make at the fed. someone for monetary policy and then put other people in terms of regulation and freeing up on the banking system, but those in there. that is double guessing president trump's decision-making. tom: i want to go back to francine's chart. it is gorgeous. absolutely gorgeous. this is the relative strength index. was up 14 days in a row going back to 1961. are we seeing this around the world. are we seeing on

all about the ecb. day.s up by 2% ireland and italy, france and germany all rallying on the back of the news from the ecb. it has cut its bond buying program to 30 billion euros per month from january and will extend it through september. it cap its pledge to step up or .xtend buying further if needed the proceeds of maturing debt will be invested for an extended. netod after the end of its asset purchases and stressed lending to banks will be conducted at a fixed interest rate and with full allotment for as long as needed. these currencies falling against the dollar with the biggest decline in the euro today since december last -- look at declines in the bond market in europe today, spain third year by eight basis points and the italian 10 year down by six basis points. not just about the ecb today, lots of earnings to tell you about with barclays shares hammered, down by 8%. declining since the day after brexit and they posted a 34% drop in fixed income revenue in the third quarter. wall streets'averag

gdp and the ecb decision. s around the table, michael collins, bob michele and marilyn watson over in london. guys, fed chair janet yellen said to be back at the white house, returning just a day after her interview with the president of united states. that's according to a person familiar with the matter. some choppy market action off the back of that. this fed race is very difficult to interpret. as an investor and market practitioner, how do you view the headline risk around all of this? mike: it looked to me like somebody assumed she was there for a follow-up interview. that she is the front runner. i don't think that is the case. i think she is told she will not be the fed chair and will be allowed a chance to step down. i lookn: bob michael, if at that situation, 24 hours later, this will get replayed. we could all sound really, really stupid. why shouldn't he give her the job? bob: i think mike pointed out there is the whole regulatory issue. you want somebody in there that will be a bit more balanced. i

the fed is determined to normalize. ecbid he don't care what the data is, we are very set to keep on supporting's economy. that is why the euro-dollar will remain under pressure. the data has less importance in the immediate term. it will need to be a change in trend to get traders excited. guy: as well as your colleagues this morning. story comethe s&p through friday. was the selloff in china just a blip? not been a good enough explanation as to why it is happening. the thing about markets is post .onference, got carried away that is the standard sales expectation. it does what we seem to have had here. overall i'm not too concerned for chinese equities are doing ok. yes bond yields are going higher but that is partially because the chinese government has emphasized they're willing to keep the pressure on growth. guy: thank you for much indeed. mark cudmore joining us on the team. the politics could be just as important. guys and their fantastic coverage, that is the blog on your bloomberg. they into periphery, he is marke

in europe, there is the ecb meeting and the crisis in catalonia.ning us is david kelly from jpmorgan bonds to help us navigate that. dow, we record for the see the s&p and nasdaq push higher. it has to do with the earnings. caterpillar hit a record. they are showing growth, not just beating estimates. how encouraging is that western mark -- that? summerwe see an indian in terms of the economy and earnings. going into next year, earnings growth looks good. exterior,ond half of you will see rising wage costs and interest rates. economic growth will slow down. investors need to maintain their discipline. people need to be cautious. julie: we can trot out all of our winter is coming references. i want to take a look at the bloomberg. up,of the things you bring it's the idea of valuations being stretched. the yellow line here is the average. we have an above average or quite some time. that doesn't mean we are going to come back down. david: that's right. a terrible timing tool. they are good at telling you about long-term returns. this is about 13% abo

germany -- the ecb is buying more than it issued and more. s have to change at some point because if there is a scarcity and bonds and at the same time you have unrest across europe, you still have italy and spain to deal to bethey may not want driving yields that low. they have to be careful. i think asia is something we want to talk about, with china asserting itself and abe's election, they are looking at changing the constitution and a military buildup happening in asia. that an investment will pull money away from the u.s. back home in japan. jack: can i jump in before you leave europe. the one country you did not mention was the u.k. jonathan: we will get there, don't worry. place we us the best had short duration has been in the u.k. it is a much more open economy. the lower pound contributed to some inflation even of the growth has not been great. that has been a better way to play the short developed market. jonathan: i got a question from a bloomberg user. inflation the- is only answer for the german long end? jack: i think it is. i

the ecb could do more than consensus. that is been the call from jpmorgan. -- that has been the call from jpmorgan. [no audio] that is been the call from jpmorgan. i think the whole narrative about carney doing one and done maybe valid but it is not at the moment. if they hike rates exley, it will be a real positive for the currency. i am long-term worried about sterling. where in this period where it could be very positive for sterling. if they hike rates of week, it is not only sending a message of great support saying, we are into giving this higher rate does. even if it turns into one and done, he will send that message next week. it is a message of economic resilience to remind the investors that u.k.'s growth performances sluggish but it is not recession. there's a story love disappointing growth that post-brexit, we thought it was the end of the world. we have had terrible brexit negotiations but still growth has held up better than expected. remind investors that economy can code with the rate hike desk ope with ra

if you look at the back drop fo the ecb, you look at sweden where the economy is growing 70%, they are still doing qe >> is the riksbank able to say they don't have bubbles? >> i'm based in new york where we have lots of construction but nowhere near as much as here, so i would say there's evidence of low interest rates causing bubbles in the construction sector. >> dangerous bubbles bubbles in the market? in real estate >> i would say bubbles in markets. stock markets are at all-time highs all the time you cited another one -- 46r7b8 >> 43 on the dow, 40 on the s&p. >> the economy sets a new record high every quarter as well we have strong economic growth in many parts of the world >> why not ask for 6%, they might get 3% or 4%, what have you. that is real inflation and engrained inflation into the system, good news for workers but is that bad news for central banks? >> i wouldn't say bad news most central banks want to get out of this and normalize policy, but it lacks the inflation catalyst to do it. it's the us economies who beat out the central bank so if you have inflation 25at 2

i want to start with the ecb. e we did get news overnight giving more details about what , their tapering plan might look like next year as they tear back their monthly purchases. i'm struck by the fact that the market rallied. people bought bonds on the idea of them buying fewer bonds. can you explain this? >> sure, the consensus going in to the last night was that the ecb would probably finish tapering around the second half of next year. what's been talked about now is a little bit beyond that. i think that is why you saw the rally. we are not surprised by that. we came into the year feeling constructive on the eu. we actually went along the air -- the year and felt it was underpriced. and now we have seen them recover quite well. the growth has been pretty good, inflation is ok. still not on target. but at this point, we actually think growth is going to decelerate a little bit. we don't think is going to reach the eu's forecast. we think growth could be even less than 1.5%. as a result of that, we think the ec

how do you get a compromise between the hawks on the ecb and the doves on the ecb? such a thing as a compromise? maxime: i think it is possible and if you look at their statement, no one is against tapering. no one is for a rate hike so they are pretty much on the same line. i think the six month 40 billion option is the most compromise because if you look at the 40 billion, it is gradual and .llows to phaseout qe the open ended will please the doves but will not bring it closer to six months. xime, in the u.s. we have our dots which one could argue could -- have depriest and them -- decreased in importance. how important is the forward guidance? maxime: i think it is much more important than the tapering. the forward guidance promises to keep interest rates at a low level well past -- is very important. we think it is very important as draghi said. he will probably stay firm on the guidance and if you look at 2019, has mandate in october 2019, he probably will leave the ecb without ever hiking rates. julie: when you look at that as his legacy, perhaps, what kind of

we think that as the fed's balance sheet unwinds and ecb tapers, it will go away. nathan: concentration. you touched on it. i will allow you to elaborate. how much of a problem there may well be in the coming years? oksana: concentration is a really significant problem when you look at the concentration of interest rate risk and portfolios generally and how , that concentration is achieved. because in the retail market, for example -- not only in the retail market, you do achieve it through ecs. they are meant to be liquid, but in the case of fixed income it's tied to an inherently illiquid instruments, a bond. when you look at the largest etf's across all the sectors, the general aggregate, corporate, high yield, you have etf's with 1000 different holders. when you look at the top 10, they control 30% to 50% of each one of those etf's. that should give everyone a pause when you consider the top five corporate bond etf's , for example account for more , than double the inventory the street is currently carrying. how is that going to work in terms of the dynamics aro

jonathan: the ecb is meeting next week. to unveil potentially -- what they are going to do with the qe program. do they cut it for an extended period or extended for a longer period? michael: they telegraph what they will do a little bit last week. their staff came out with a report that looks like they will cut the purchases from $60 billion a month to something less, presumably $30 billion a month and extend that. it is supposed to expire at the end of this calendar year. extend that through september of next year. jonathan: this is just remarkable from deutsche bank. seven times net issuance. that is the ecb's activity in this market. how significant is that going to be? bob: is going to be pretty significant, but they will still be buying 3.5 times the net issuance. they will still be distorting the markets. i think it is not the next nine months where they will cut the purchases in half. it is the nine months after that. you really have to get about a year from now to figure out how the markets are going to revalue. jo

oksana: how difficult will it be for the ecb to take a step back? l react to the economic picture on the ground. that continues to strengthen in europe and specifically, spain. spain has been one of the stronger areas. so if the fed continues on their trajectory, that will give the ecb some cover. they have made comments that are very clear that they are headed in that direction. jonathan: luke, what options are on the table for the european bank as they change their quantitive easing policies? there seems to be two options they are debating. one is you can drop qe by $20 billion and extend for a shorter duration of time. or you can drop by a lot more and extend duration by a lot more. so qe can run longer that a smaller rate, or run at a bigger rate and have qe run shorter. given the politics, do you think the weight of interest from the governing council might be to extend it as long as possible? luke: yeah, it's got to be, doesn't it? i would say we have italy coming up and we have austria still bubbling away. we have not even got a fully formed g

of the rules for asset changes from the ecb. trillion. already have 1.8 trillion in the central bank balance sheets. so the meaning is the potential for additional asset is today limited. we can say from that perspective that much of the moving is behind us now. to some extent, we can say there is a drive for the issue for the european central bank and the cycle being very positive nowadays. vonnie: yes. eric: we can trust there will be an additional need after this move. mark: why so dovish? if it was slightly on the board oversight given the data, which is showing the economy has gained traction, why did draghi feel the need to fear on the board oversight -- veer on the more dovish side today? eric: there is a major challenge, which is to keep the level of interest rates across the curve under control. we have to recognize that there is a need to get out of the negative interest rates that still are the rule on the very short end of the curve, but also, not long-term yields to whatase too fast and avoid has been the situation in the u.s

it will be what happens to the ecb and boj. as been the gravitational pull that has been holding down those treasury yields. until you get the sigrid nice move up globally, it is very difficult to break that bull market. we would say that you should watch out and do not get too excited about the breakdown of that 30 year trend. thethose investors making moves that peter was talking about, out of the bond etf's and into equity etf's. alix: moore issuance from the treasury, and the fed pulling back from their investment program, there is an investment here which could affect yields. >> the problem is that as soon as you get the dollar picking up , then you start to get downward pressure on prices. the lack of pricing power -- you have to get the inflation coming through. you have to get the wage numbers motoring more aggressively. you need unemployment down to about 3.5% before driving up the inflation rate which will motivate the higher bond yields. a willingnesse from policymakers to let things go much more aggressively than wha

could the ecb let qe die ever? councilmembers have yet to discuss the options. pokesman declined to comment. it is a great skip by bloomberg -- it is a great scoop by bloomberg. it's hard to believe mario draghi would allow deep cuts and only extend qe for nine months. what are your expectations? >> i think you have to put it in the context of all the messaging we received previously. if there is one message the ecb has sent us, when they do taper, it will be slow. it will be cautious and spread out over a long time. it is not so much the monthly if they're going to cut the buying and have, you're much more likely to see them carry on for the next year. rather than stop after six or nine months. getof the comments we center on the concept that they question the sustainability of inflation. that is clearly the driving factor. skills seem like a good -- it does seem like a good scoop. length theys the will be tapering rather than the amount. what about inflation. it seems not just a problem for the ecb. the fed and the u.s. also doesn't seem to be able to hit an in

again, it is the power of artificial price setting by the ecb. s requested that the man is coming from. jonathan: a difficult will be for the ecb to pull out? but for can we do not have ecb qe? the kind of move could we have seen? how difficult to take a step back? oksana: for the ecb to take a step back? they will react to the economic picture on the ground. spain has been one of the stronger areas. if the fed continues on their trajectory it will give the ecb some cover. they have made comments that they are headed in that direction. jonathan: options are on the table for the european central bank has a change their quantitative easing policies. they seem to be two options they are debating. one is you can drop qe by 20 billion and extend for a shorter duration of time. for you can drop by a lot more and extend duration by a lot more. qe can run longer that a smaller rate, for running bigger right and have qe run shorter. do you think the weight of interest from the governing council might be to extend it as long as possible? be.: yeah, it has g

is the difference between the boe and the ecb. hike. the emergency cut last august? dan: i think there was signal. the market is pricing three hikes in their forecast to rise in. it we think they will signal that is not enough to bring inflation back to target. think they will point to more hikes coming. whether they deliver the house is another question. we think economic data will sell next year. they won't be able to deliver those hikes. francine: thank you for joining us today. let's get back to our new york studio. david goldman and stephen roach are still with us. have you look at brexit? exactly how negotiations will unfold. if you're in the u.s., to you just look at the fundamentals of the economy or do you try to follow this u.k. versus brussels thing blow-by-blow? stephen: i think for people in the united states market, keep -- key aspects are beyond us in the negotiations. from the german commotion elections, the catalonian independence and so forth, that there is a chill wind blowing in europe against brussels overreach and t

i am here for the ecb meeting as well. little later on to talk about what we expect from draghi today. getting some breaking news from the german software company sap. an internal probe in its south african business has found instances of misconduct in businesses related to the group the family and it has started disciplinary procedures against three employees. they have become entangled allegations around the group the family who are friends of the president. they have been accused of using their connections to win lucrative state contracts. sap shares are up today about a third of 1%. barclays shares falling. we will be speaking to the bank's chief executive. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: you're watching "bloomberg surveillance." sebastian: the barclays ceo said he wouldn't panic after one that turning quarter but notice at three in a row. it trailed most wall street rivals and posted an average 20% decline. we want to see a better performance than. it really hasn't impacted our market share. we've held and active given w

the ecb said these aren't connected to the stokes incident. bits can now be made until the end of november. the committee said birmingham's application wasn't fully compliant. they say they are seeking clarification and there will be talks with the federation over the next few weeks. i think they are annoyed and surprised over how this has been handled. but i think realistically the games will end up going to birmingham in 2022 for the first time. simply because even though this has happened today and the deadline has been extended until the end of november, it's not certain that any other cities will bid, and if they do, they won't be able to match birmingham's. there is "an increasing political risk that qatar may not host the world cup in 2022", according to a confidential report obtained by the bbc. the study looks at the impact of the current diplomatic crisis between qatar and its neighbours — the authors claim that tournament insiders and regional experts have told them it is far from certain doha will actually host the tournament. howe

and on an eye on spain the ecb. trump's decision for the next fed chair. you with the currency board. you can see the euro down against the dollar by about 0.8%. the close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. and newve from london york, this is the european close. stocks up for the third day. the best run since march, 2015. technology, resources, utilities, leaving the advance. let's start with the euro, following -- falling for a second day. catalan separatists planning their next move after rajoy announced unprecedented measures to stop -- stamp his authority on the region. stretching of the program's remaining capacity as it wades thro

the ecb is winding -- committed to winding the taper down. we go forward in the meeting. it seems like they want to announce a reversal of qe, a tapering of it, then get into rate hikes. jonathan: investors are saying short buns, a picture in the german press that says "go long and stay long." it was the german finance ministry celebrating the tenure of wolfgang schaeuble and they do it by dressing in black and standing in 80 -- zero. [laughter] not know if you can look at a picture and make a definition. jonathan: culturally, this is where things will stay, balance budgets in germany. >> there has been tremendous improvement in germany and you have to recognize that. it has been reflected in assets, particular risk assets in the eurozone. there is still work to be done. >> this was to say goodbye. that is the big change coming. there is anus -- >> article in the german press how much this coalition will spend, adding up the promises, 100, 150 billion euros. i am pretty sure we will get looser fiscal policy in germany in the next few years. d

that was part on the ecb. when do you expect to see the political risk their being priced in if at all? >> already you see the spread over bunds and the german market. have a political unrest. it is not entirely priced into the spanish market. over time you would expect the situation in barcelona and madrid does get further resolved. you would see that matching up with the market. you have to be avoiding these idiosyncratic risks in a region that does have a lot of potential. matt: thank you. there's a lot of news here for a friday. let's get some of that in the bloomberg business flash. >> nissan has been conducting its inspection process. according to a person familiar with the situation, the finding will be part of a report of external investigations. the report will be submitted ahead of the company's results scheduled for november 8. amazon has reported third-quarter sales and profit that tops analysts estimates. the results insured investors they can not disrupt their e-commerce with whole foods. the comp

the big week in terms of the ecb story. what are we going to hear in terms of bond buying? he bond story in europe. what the ecb is going to do, are we going to see them/their monthly bond purchasing -- going to flash their monthly bond purchasing? manus: will be referred -- will he prefer interest rates not remain low? will that be the trigger for the penultimate dish for the benevolent -- for the benevolent bank? >> the spanish leader announced measures to step his authority on the region. is set to bemont is set to be ousted within days. [no audio] iran.anctions on he is wanting that countries doing business with tehran do so at their own risk. fostering a new reliance -- a new alliance. tillerson said saudi arabian leaders would rebuff his request to in the isolation of qatar. the opposition leader party eclipse the small victory cheap brought home from a summit of european leaders. theresa may's fragility was on the line yesterday when she was issued an ultimatum, expect major changes or risk defeat. in the u.k., lack of clarity around brexit is undermining confidence a

when you are in this part of the cycle, it is delicate. ecbvement and the , going to be analogous to that. today's meeting, what is the pace of -- we know the direction . if we move further along, you know the direction. you know the direction in japan, a little bit slower. , there ision in china going to be more of a tightening of credit. the complexion of the world we are in is changing in a profound way. asry decade, practically, defined in characteristics. the 1960's was a. here -- the 1960's was a period of strong growth. a very lively conversation. dalio.ray coming up on the show, twitter showings signs of life in its third-quarter report, and the positive news is giving the social media company a needed jolt. rd underlying numbers all they are made out to be? ♪ vonnie: welcome back -- buffalo wild wings soaring today, making it our stock of the hour. shares are up 20%. it is the result of an improved outlook outlined in their latest earnings report. emma chandra is here. to be concise, boneless chicken wings are back. they've done bette

they concern in the banking sector, they are and -- dependent on ecb funding which requires the banksbe within the eu. one reason the banks will have to relocate. the spread between spain and italy has been -- spain is still trading and spain to germany still remains pretty tight. there is constructive options around the eurozone and the ecb still has backing in the system and buying bonds perhaps through next year. not a reason for the ecb to not taper that quickly and 2018 -- in 2018. vonnie: this chart has to do with catalonia, if you do not mind. catalonia job creation versus spain job creation. we have a comparison, you see catalonia accounts for most of the region's export outside of spain. is that -- if all of the separatist movements do not create some economic havoc in general? david: we will have to look at the data over the next three to four months, the eurozone, more .essimism about spain growing optimism about the italian recovery. and also with france. much more optimism there. spain is an issue. it will remain an issue. it will keep rumbling on. it will not go away. if

don't fight the ecb. does that still show the same thing? >> it does the real message, look at the power. when you look at fixed income, you have today's returns are stunning one of the reasons for that is just the power of influence. when you look at central banks locally, that will be at least until this time next year. the fed is reducing the ties >> what does it mean for your investment strategy then i guess you want to steer clear of any government bonds. we've heard that for a long, long time sings the start of the year essentially isn't it surely the slow week slim pickings outside of the bond space aren't valuations being driven up that we can go into a bund or a treasury right now >> when you look at fixed income, the lesson from this year is that there was life in the old bond market. look at bonds that benefit from growth two obvious sources there. the first actually is local emerging market bonds and then the second is corporate bonds. corporate bonds are a high yield. >> what about converging market bonds. that sounds all well a