the economic data on friday and this morning was poor. as you look at it, you might scratch your head and wonder what happened. for example, retail sales fell for the second straight month. producer prices were down for the first time in seven months. it sounds like the move toward growth is on life support. the markets turned around shortly after the open, because the market became oversold and bounced the most oversold sector, banks, are the ones that bounced the most. other sectors, semiconductors, materials, they performed better today. geopolitical jitters resurfaced last week after being dormant for a very long time. trade brought a lot of protection ahead of the three-day easter holiday. since nothing happened over the holiday, that trade was being unwound somewhat today. there's one final potential catalyst, tax day, ending tomorrow. the weeks leading into tax day have been down modestly for the market, with the modest rally in the weeks after that. that seems to be playing out as well. at least for today. >> comments from treasury

this is the difference, the gap between hard economic data in the u.s. versus soft economic data. economic data would be a news like sentiment surveys, small business optimism, and you need that the gap has really ride and -- widened since trump runs the election. that's won the election. i think this means a lot of people have pinned their hopes and dreams on the trump administration, and we've not seen those come to reality yet. tim: that is right. the survey data has been pretty constructive. optimism has carried over to the be part q1, and it will of april as well, q2. that has not lived up to the economic data. i think we saw the gdp tickers on friday for q1, and they were quite off. they were disappointing for the annual growth rate. seasonally, i think it could be factors at play there that do serve to depress that first-quarter figure and subsequently, you often see it bounce back in activity. i suspect that may also play out this year. that gap between sentiment and optimism and the hard data will start to narrow again and the economic, the real data will play some catch

i think what we're having is a return to reality, so all of the soft economic data which had been on tinued throughout q 1 and now seems to be moderating back in line with the hard economic data and everything is kind of back to consistent with where we were before the election where we're plodding along at a 2% pace and this is telling you there is no real trump impact in the data to this poin. i think market participants are very excited at the prospects of tax reform and infrastructure spending but as you highlighted earlier those expectations are watered down more and more and you see it reflected in the 10-year yield, in stocks, and in an array of indicators and now you see the surprise index moderating lower as well. >> kind of. now you're seeing futures higher, 10-year yield off the low of the session. is this the core daa in retail sales wasn't as bad as we thought situation? >> i'm not going to say the numbers are terrible but they are certainly not good numbers. so retail sales not only not good in march but february getting a big down ward revision as well. so it tells you

the economics. that should equal higher yields, shouldn't they western mark >> -- they? >> the u.s. is the laggard. and we really ironic have been the leader for such a long time. at some point, the economic data is going to have to drive deals. you still have incredible easing by draghi and ecb. the boj is still supported. even the fed is not hiking in an aggressive manner. inflation is still low. inflation is one of the keys. we have to see inflation go up before you can have real yields increase as well. i would mention something interesting in terms of what can happen with france if le pen wins. we are concerned about rights it. what happened during exit -- credit spreads blowout more than european. i think it's a function of the u.s. market, an easy way to express risk on an risk off. you consider the amount of easing that would have happened, the u.s. market isn't as affected by that is european markets. jonathan: you say the risk on rally could be more pronounced in the united states monday morning that it would be in europe? >> possibly. this is an inflation story at this point in time. this is where the u.s. is slightly ahead in terms of the reflation trade which has come under pressu

really key for the market is earnings season. frankly, all economic dataside and when earnings come up, we get excited because it tells us a lot. it can tell us a lot about whether we're seeing replays or growth change in the longer term. i think that is going to be key. mike: that is where the car sales are important. are we going to continue to see momentum on the consumer and ceo side? we have seen consumers carrying things, but maybe other getting a little tired? he spoke to several fed officials last week on the air thereid the same thing. was a lot of confidence after the election, people were hoping the business friendly administration and conference -- congress would do something boost confidence, but companies are not investing because they haven't seen proof that it is going to happen. that's what we're waiting for. scarlet: a waiting game. in the meantime, a waiting game for investors as we wait for more details on what the fed actually discussed at its last policy meeting. one question a lot of people was into the meeting with whether the fed w

it will resolve the issues on the economic reforms overall and certainly enough with some of the weaker economic datarading range is still the most likely, but towards the high end. ipos folks, this is it. been saying this for three months now, but they're finally going to pick up. seven ipos this week. the busiest week since mid september here. we'll have 18 ipos if they all go through this would be the second busiest april. and take a look at some of the big names here before we go back to carl china rapid finance is there. and emerald exposition is the biggest company in the u.s. cloudera, back to unicorn and a used car company coming as well. ipo, etf, up 12% so far this year. we're up right at the highs of the day. 213 points in the dow. carl, back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. let's get to the bond pits as well, check in with rick santelli. >> wow, lots of things going on. nobody should be surprised but maybe there are still surprises. i'm not talking about the second round of french elections. i'm talking about the goodwill in the marketplace. especially against the fixed income side. i

it was for markets briefly a big event, but if you look at the economic data, it it did not impact the economic data, so markets got back to their senses shortly afterwards. holger: now, having had that taper tantrum in the pass, we are forewarned. i do not expect massive negative market reactions to what is likely to be a very gradual pace of stimulus removal free economies in the western world that clearly cannot stand slightly less accommodative monetary policies. mark: say there. schmieding, valentin marinov. here is nejra cehic. nejra: nestle has reported first-quarter analyst growth that it exceeded estimates as it raised prices on nescafe in europe and asia and sales accelerated. they said sales rose 2.3% on and a granite basis. nestle's new ceo abandoned the sales and profit forecasts for the company had held onto for a decade and replace them with a goal to jumpstart revenue by 2020. unilever has reported quarterly sales growth that beat estimates. the maker of dubs nope -- dove saop said they rose in the quarter. first results since rebuffing a takeover approach from kraft he

. >> we will see what the economic data shows. there is a link between corporate confidence and more hiring. we'll see how much investment there is in the new cycle. we will start to get q-1 earnings. that's going to be the key to, see whether the fundamentals can perform beyond jobs and these confidence leadings, capital investments from companies. >> meanwhile, touchdown, amazon hitting all-time highs this morning. now, worth twice as much as walmart as the company signs that $50 million to stream the nfl's thursday night football games for the upcoming season. shares are up seven days in a row. henry, i know it is a stock you know pretty well. i wondered what you make of the valuation. look, it is certainly a leap of faith that they will continue to develop and invest in these great businesses going forward. i have owned the stock for a very long time. not unhappy to see it. as we set these new highs, that is a big future. they are making a big bet. i think it is smart. crime is becoming increasingly important video streaming se

in the economic data, you have the overall credit lending data in the united states. you have other larger pictures and stuff with potential for continued acquisitions. we are still well over 6000 individual banks in the united states. vonnie: what are we doing allocation wise? are we staring down the road of real brexit? are you changing any exposure geographically? >> on the margin, we are actually telling some of the winners we have had over the last couple of years and the winners are predominantly u.s. equities. we are starting to redeploy those outside of non-dollar assets. that includes european stocks and japanese stocks. more recently, that includes the broader array of the emerging markets. particularly the agent -- the asian, taiwan and korea etc.. vonnie: in the last week or two we have seen it several times. is this because they have been getting a little more unilateral when it comes to trade? there have been lots of bilateral deals. you would have solved that with a demise of these trade organizations, that that would not be good? >> the issues around t

but, in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months. the chancellor will return from his us trip at the weekend, back to an election battle where the promises the party makes to voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, the fewer, it would seem, the better. the health trust facing an investigation into the avoidable deaths of babies was told by regulators a decade ago that its maternity services needed to improve. the healthcare commission told the shrewsbury and telford trust that its monitoring of babies' heart rates during labour wasn't good enough, and that its training of staff was inadequate. 0ur social affairs correspondent michael buchanan reports. she was very dependent on me. my life went round a clock. i had to give her medication at certain times, make sure her feed was running 0k. i was more of a nurse and a carer than a mum. abbey everett was born in 2004 with brain injuries, including severe epilepsy and cerebral palsy. staff at the royal shrewsbury hospital failed to promptly deliver her, despite foetal hear

but in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months.revised up its forecast for britain's economy this year to 2%. the cancer will return from his us trip at the weekend, back to an election battle where the promises the parties make two voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, the fewer, it would seem, the better. kamal ahmed, bbc news, washington. let's speak to our deputy political editor, john pienaar, who's in westminster for us now. commitments in some areas by theresa may and also a lack of them in others. it's very early in the campaign. how risky is this for the prime minister? well, she is certainly risking upsetting a lot of the people who are most likely to turn out and vote on polling day, british pensioners. you could call it confidence, or economic necessity, if that promise is not in the conservative ma nifesto. is not in the conservative manifesto. the truth is it would probably be quite a lot of both. 0n overseas aid, she is confident enough to take on some in her party and in fleet street who believe tha

but in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months.sed up its forecast for britain's economy this year to 2%. the chancellor will return from his us trip at the weekend. back to an election battle where the promises the parties make to voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, the fewer it would seem the better. kamal ahmed, concerned, the fewer it would seem the better. kamalahmed, bbc concerned, the fewer it would seem the better. kamal ahmed, bbc news, washington. let's speak to our deputy political editorjohn pienaar, who's in westminster for us now. the end of the week which has seen political campaigning get underway from a standing start — what can people take out of what's been said so far? fiona, we're less than a week into this campaign and already the prime minister has made and may be preparing to make some very big calls. dropping the tories pensions promise risks upsetting a lot of the people who are always the most likely to make their way to the polling station on election day. is that about confidence, is

but, in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months.itain's economy this year to 2%. the chancellor will return from his us trip at the weekend, back to an election battle where the promises the party makes to voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, the fewer, it would seem, the better. an egyptian—american charity worker, who spent three years in a cairo jail, has been welcomed to the white house after being acquitted of human trafficking charges. it's understood that president trump helped to secure the release of aya hijazi, when he met the egyptian president earlier this month. barbara plett—usher reports. we are very happy to have aya back home. first of all, the trump administration will say this is a sign of the successes diplomacy on human rights. raising concerns in private that not publicly criticising the president is like the above organisation did. good job, right? a is like the above organisation did. goodjob, right? a wonderfuljob. but that probably wouldn't have worked if donald trump hadn't brought abdel

but in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months. revised up its forecast for britain's economy this year to 2%. the chancellor will return from his us trip at the weekend, that to an election battle where the promises the parties makes the voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, if you are it would seem the better. —— if fewer it would seem. len mccluskey has been re—elected the general secretary of the uk's biggest trade union, unite. mr mccluskey beat his nearest rival gerard coyne by just over 5,500 votes. but only 12% of unite's million plus members voted. following the result, mr coyne, who was suspended from his position in the union yesterday, said he was considering a legal challenge. campaigning in france has ended ahead of the first round of voting in the presidential election. the final day was overshadowed by the attack in paris yesterday. the paris prosecutor, francois molins, has confirmed that a note found near the gunman's body contained messages sympathetic to the so—called islamic state group. from p

of course, if the economic data is decent enough, getting jobs on friday. t's decent enough to support that, it may well mean the s&p continues to consolidate, and the real excitement is other equity markets and asset classes. >> like which other equity markets? >> emrnerging market equities, you're seeing the same velocity of flows into emerging market equities that you saw into the u.s. best house on the block back after the election there. simply based, if you take the view that global synchronized growth is not just a blip but something that may have legs, there's no question that on a relative value basis that's where you need to be, assuming the dollar and the macro stories for the various markets hold. >> when president trump first won the election last fall, there was a consensus view that it would be bad for emerging markets. that some trade tensions including most notably with china would hurt the region and slow growth. has that completely disappeared ahead of this big meeting tomorrow with president xi? >> it's in the backgrounds of everyone's mi

james: i think so because i think the economic data will , and that is a great thing for emerging marketsie: thank you, james barrineau. julie: coming up, tensions the russia and the u.s. -- between russia and the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. julie: i am julie hyman. this is "bloomberg markets." it is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. a federal judge has found -- has find a latin america jar store to $59. it pled guilty last december, saying it engaged in a massive bribery plot dating back to 2001. almost 800 million dollars in bribes. -- ident trump expected that is according to a person familiar with the election process. currently a managing director at the private equity firm, he has years of experience. we will dig more into that story in about 20 minutes from now. soundtrack to become the biggest ever. the it installment of the fast and the furious franchise took in millions of dollars this weekend. if the number holds up, it could : the forcewars awakens." that is your business flash. time now

weaker economic data in a little bit of the optimism that is coming within the market because of the pro- growth plan that could have added to gdp. were taxes are being pushed off. the expectations are coming down that they could actually do that. >> i would say i get that you do very weak retail sales number. there is also a bunch of great data that look much better here it's up $150 here. what do you think is either tamping down this chance or eliminated entirely. i think that if you look ahead to the end of this month year to get first quarter growth numbers i find it very difficult for the fed to raise rates consistently with sub 2% growth. we can see some one and half percent. the numbers are not supportive of growth. you can hang it on the december hike. it tells you it is not a slamdunk. suddenly we are jumping and yet bold is now the traditional safe haven is moving higher. were really seen the markets take off in the final hour. , what do you think it really happens here. what decision will they make come june if we still see the strong stock market. >> i know there are some

. >> what do you think of the economic data at the moment? >> encouraging on the whole. particularly in the eurozone. the recovery is becoming more entrenched. as draghi said yesterday, there's downside risks. we wouldn't take that much notice of the survey data. they seem to be running ahead of the official data, but encouraging nonetheless. uk-wise, we had the q1 gdp number this morning. slightly disappointing. but the main point, yes, we are going through a slowdown. that is leakly to be because of the slowdown in consumer spending growth because of the rise in inflation. >> some are saying we're two years behind the recovery seen in the u.s. is it that bad? >> in the "eurozone it could be more than that. if the uk, not as bad. if that's the case, what do we do with investment strategy? >> you still want to be overweight growth. it feels like if you look at the marginal flow coming in, you have a position in the u.s., that's the driver ahead. probably a bit more focus will be on eurozone, maybe emerging markets and europe in particular. big markets are underpositioned

the markets ignored them. hard economic data is visible from retail sales to the producer price index. economic data has been weaker than anticipated. the odds for a june rate hike are down to 45% from close to obviou 60% over a week ago. other risks, brexit, and particularly north korea, all background stories until the last few weeks. this weaker data and the steeper political risk have put downward pressure on bond yields, that's another problem. finally, earnings risks. stocks are expensive, the risk is to the downside, leaving stocks vulnerable to a selloff. look what happened to goldman sachs yesterday. look what happened to ibm today. the worry is that the first quarter might represent the peak for earnings growth, which is now about 10% for the first quarter. there's no panic yet. this could all change if we get stronger second quarter gdp data. and the fed does indeed raise in june. that would almost certainly push bond yields higher, and a lot of these issues would go away. but for right now, it's a tricky moment for t

people move towards treasury the big spike, the vix spike the gold spike, that combination is what we could find ourselves in, if the data, the economic data continues to be, you know what i mean? we have a situation where corporate managements are not guiding a real confident manner. then i think you have a sell-off in may. >> what do you think? >> i think it evolved over the trump rally. at first i thought it was only due to policy, tax policy, things like. that then i really started to think this was something to an animal spirits. i believe the environment has changed. people are more, ceos are more optimistic about less regulation. however, the likelihood of the tax part of the agenda, getting done is lower now. >> lowered be i the day. we talked about two months ago, he said we have a phenomenal tax plan in three weeks. that's ridiculous. now with health care having failed, the administration kind of stumbling. >> right. >> so it seems less likely, which makes me less optimistic about the rally continuing. >> right. >> do you think we will see volatility even higher. >> it's great t. optimism numbers. to guy's point, though we h

>> i think perhaps not that different in terms that if the reflationary trade continues the economic data goes -- does come through and we see that reflected in interest rates, moving up again. which will probably put some downward pressure on some of those property sectors but of companiesp the mining , the oil and gas companies. mark: you are looking at anglo american, for instance. they are all in the triple digits in last january. >> they always have at the same time started to compare the balance sheet. it is a big problem in that sector. some of that moves and is a reflection of balance sheets and perhaps in time some of that , whether that be the right or the wrong thing to do, they might start to see some of that cash coming back to us as shareholders. mark: bhp and elliott, of course. the pressure is on. thanks for joining us. helen driver, head of global equities. vonnie: mark, let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. courtney donohoe is here with more. >> president trump wants to repeal obamacare before taking on tax reform. thatresident told business a republican healt

. >> the french election jitters calming down, we have better economic data. ose two points helping equities move higher what about the rise in geopolitical tensions, why are investors willing to overlook north korea anderecent provocations. >> i think through the summer months geopolitical conversations will be at the top of conversation. we advise investors to take profit right now almost harvesting some of your gains in the spring instead of the traditional harvest in the fall. you're moving into a seasonally weak period of time in the markets. we just think there's an opportunity here, given some of the economic data has been soft, we'll see q1 data later this week, the first quarter of the year and the winter months were soft for the economy. >> which sector is most right for profit taking? >> i would certainly say technology. up 13% year to date right now. and then we would still fade a lot of the defensive names. so we think the utilities, the telecom, and in particular energy. we still think oil prices have a ways to go down. we've seen them weaken over

is it the economic data coming in that says the u.k. is holding up better than we thought? what changed? >> one, certainly the state of the economy. it is an economy doing a lot better than people thought it would in front of the referendum. the economy is pretty resilient. in 2020 when the election was time for. second is the polling numbers. the 20 point lead over the opposition, labour party for the first time in a decade. 55% of respondents saying yesterday that theresa may is handling the brexit talks well. the numbers look very strong for her. when you look across the clinical environment, you see struggle to lead the labour party. you look at the ukip party having their own problems. for theresa may, the numbers seem to add up, and indicate that the election is worth having a crack at. david: thank you both. -- for more now is on this now is david own and simon smiles. david, let's start with you. how does this affect the timeline to get a job done with the eu? o.: at the moment, it makes her job a little bit easier. the problem, is that she has members of her own pa

trump hase from what or has not done, what do you see the economic data outside the u.s. doing? >> most importantly, china, the world's second biggest economy, trade, isrginal driving the big change. with its growth accelerating, that is good for commodities. what we saw yesterday was a comprehensive set up of data on china. strong investment. strong credit. strong gdp in the first quarter and industrial production. strong retail sales. betterector is doing than expected. and looking strong at the moment. manus: the iron ore chart that you put up this morning, market and i applaud your optimism. it is already at $60 and change. what is driving the iron ore misery? supply? lack of belief in the china recovery story? the numbers were not that bad for the first quarter. questionit is a great because iron ore is a big exception or anomaly in my positive outlook that i got it this week. everything else is looking positive but iron ore it suggests doubt on the chinese growth story and chinese data. what is important to know for iron ore is that it continues to come found analysts on t

but in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months.for britain's economy this year to 2%. the cancer will return from his us trip at the weekend, back to an election battle where the promises the parties make two voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, the fewer, it would seem, the better. kamal ahmed, bbc news, washington. well earlier i spoke to our political correspondent, ruby begin to jack blanchard and tim shipman at 8:30pm here on bbc news. len mccluskey — leader of britain's biggest trade union — unite — has been re—elected as its general secretary following a ballot of members. he thought of a child from his moderate rival gerard coyne who was suspended from his post yesterday pending an investigation. 0nly12% of unite‘s million—plus members voted. ian watson, mr coyne isn't happy. he comments after the result that the junior machine had been favouring the incumbent, he talked about being bullied during the course of the campaign, but now he is considering going one step further. i'm told by his supporters that

bear market rs associated with the stock market sensing a recession hitting all the economic data looks fine. china's getting stronger, u.s. economic growth is accident. second cause would be u fork price iing in the market. i think the market is fully valued. i don't think it's euphorically priced in any way. we have a fed that is moving very, very slowly. they are afraid to raise rates and the tok market is -- the conditions for a big decline are not present and so the line of least resistance is probably still up i would say at a very gradual slope. very grad yaual slope. >> what gets you more bullish? is it going to be earnings, which i said at the top, beginning tomorrow, expectations are that you're going to have the strongest quarter since 2011. >> you say gets to be more bullish, i'd have to want to bet on euphoria. my theme rightly or wrongly, is we're heading back to normalization. we've been in a very ab normal environment. op the political side, president obama successfully portrayed romney's wealth as a liability and during this recent election cycle, president trump got up

you pointed this morning's pmi's, broadly, the economic data has been picking up quite nicely since the appetite to borrow -- lending story is a much shallower trajectory at the moment, but it is moving in the right direction. bond markets will -- assuming we get up and i now come in the french election. interest rates across the curve will help a little bit more. it is a long story, this. we have had sort of easy gains, because they were way undervalued last year. value and youver have to see the economy start to improve, i think. matt: i'm wondering about the interest rate question, william. i have a chart showing european banks in white trailing their u.s. peers in blue. is this mostly due to the ecb and the interest rate situation? i mean, as john cryan would say, that is one of their biggest problems. william: yeah, i mean, negative to positive rates are not helpful. last year, what you have is a situation where many in the market just did not know whether -- where it was in terms of interest rates. people were talking about -4% negative to positive rates. how is a bank supposed to

pop we have had may be about french elections, but it's all about earnings and the fact that the economic datan better than people realize. it's showing up in the top line, it's pervasive, it's showing up in cyclical groups. >> investors have been taeen va investigating over a tax rate cut. today, if we do get an announcement that the tax rate is being reduced from 35% to 15%, but no indication as to whether it will be revenue neutral, will that be seen as more of a negative than a positive for financial markets? i think that we are obsessing much more about this tax thing, and the market is focusing on this earnings story. we're going into year nine of a recovery cycle. the market is doing great. wages are going up. i don't see this obsession with leading this late cycle boost when the fed is trying to calm the markets or calm the economy down and slow things down by raising rates. it's not that i don't -- i want a more rational tax plan, it's not that the market won't celebrate it, but i think you won't get a plan that has a huge drop in tax revenues, that will have a hard time getting throu

the economic data is actually very good. we're seeing good numbers from overseas. ad good trade numbers. europe, lowest unemployment in the last eight years. these are all good things that can help earnings. >> i hear you and we like to hear it, but who are the buyers? where's this money coming? is it overseas? just the retail investor getting back into the action? where's it coming from? >> karen, then tim can follow up, if you like. >> i'm sorry -- >> karen that was -- >> okay, sorry. >> let's try this again. i love live television. karen, first to you, and then we'll call on you, tim. karen, first to you. thank you. >> well, i think it's a lot of people that have been pulling back over the last months, just because they are worried about all these geopolitics and they're worried about whether the trump rally is going to continue, whether we're going to see some policy changes. yeah, we are going to see some policy changes. but in the meantime, they realize that the economic data is better and they don't want to miss out. it's like leaving before you get the main

surprising to the upside, more .ositive than negative u.s. economic data in blue. nd of lower a little bit than it has been going -- it has been going higher. the flipside the u.s. dollar, bloomberg dollar index which is also trending lower, below its 200 day moving average. continue to watch, particularly u.s. data on inflation is the reflation trade -- i want to talk about turkey. there was a referendum in turkey yesterday which successfully awarded more power to president patil on. he said debate over the referendum is now over. he won it by slender margin. reaction has been positive, dollar falling by a percent versus the lira. increasedout confidence in turkey now that there is a some -- some level of certain uncertainty and stability now that he is when the scope. talkednd i earlier today to a head of emerging markets that the traders who said, that that in this market has been undervalued as of the concerns. if you look at the 10 year note in turkey, the yield over the past year has been rising, price has been falling. there is been selling of turkish that. i

the u.s. economic data will keep getting worse in the second and third quarters and bond yields will move down. for the moment, the market seems to be saying none of these prospects are very likely. for "nightly business report," bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >>> and has bob mentioned, house republicans may be getting closer to a deal on health care. kayla tausche has the details. >> reporter: nearly a month after the house pulled an 11-hour vote on the american health care act, broad amendments to the bill have been agreed to. to appease conservative freedom caucus, there are waivers that let states abandon once-mandatory benefits like maternity and mental health. a freedom caucus source said those changes would turn 18 to 20 votes for yesterday. the moderate tuesday group could not be reached but its leader expressed support for the changes on facebook. the changes, plus comments overseas by speaker ryan that they were putting the, quote, finishing touches on health care, sent expectations into overdrive. the white house reportedly wants a vote on wednesday. senior gop aides cau

does the soft data, the confidence boost from consumers and at the boardroom level show up in earnings? or do earnings correlate more with the hard economicthere's a lot of things that the companies can do to make their nurjs -- numbers, they can cut costs and raise the numbers. more importantly you want to see that ceo confidence show up in investment. we haven't quite seen that yet. there's a little firming in the capital spending there. but we want to see it surge along with the confidence data we are getting from the ceos. >> yeah. one more reason to pay attention closely to earnings this week as we go -- >> good point. >> steve, thanks so much. >>> when we come back a lot more on klaus kleinfeld stepping down as ceo of arconic. >>> also ahead, jeff greene with the dow up 75. the dow up 75. hey. pass please. i'm here to fix the elevator. nothing's wrong with the elevator. right. but you want to fix it. right. so who sent you? new guy. what new guy? watson. my analysis of sensor and maintenance data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. there you go. you still need a pass. ♪ >>> good monday morning. welcome back to "squawk o

wasn't.o, i really if you look at the economic data over the last several months, you have had some positiveationally. weak.s. has been notably in the first quarter. if you look at what is happening europe, and in the u.s., when you look at the so-called soft data, the confidence figures, consumer confidence, business confidence, there are lots of reasons you of great to update -- the data. that is exactly what we saw. wascan see the imf predicting -- we had a recession 2007-2009 globally. there was an expectation that we would have a sharp snap back. that did not happen. you recall, we have had 2% growth ever since then. we have had fairly sluggish growth code locally. there have been a series of reasons why the imf has been optimistic, and therefore, private. forecasters have been optimistic. you have had one disappointment after another. you remember greece and the european debt prices. commodity prices collapsed. that affected a lot of emerging markets and the oil dependent markets. you had brexit. that caused a softening their as well as throughout europe. one kind of bad thing after an

it is indisputably reacting to the tone of the economic data that we have seen. e is up initially -- a positioning aspect as well. if you look at the data on interest rate futures, the market has been short bonds, short interest rates in record levels. for the first part of the year. , particularlyeen after we broke out of that range is positions being vacated and shorts buying back the short run. joe: speaking of bonds, you are a strategist. anchorage everyone with a terminal 2 reacher stuff. markets live every day. you set out this chart, which amused me. i'm looking at it on my bloomberg. it is 10 year yield versus the weather in sydney, australia. i know we say correlation does wouldual causality, but i trade on it. zoom in and people will see. >> you are stilling my thunder. joe: sorry. >> it was a slow day yesterday. i sent this out saying, i have discovered this great indicator for 10-year gilts. the white line appears to lead the turquoise line, which is the 10 year yield. it is sort of in the spirit of what we were talking about. you have to be careful, l

that is an issue with the economic data being a little bit unreliable. surprised if we saw a major sustained move down in bond yields. the fed is still in hiking mode and if you look at some of the other stuff that drives the yields like inflation, none of bet suggests yields should breaking significantly. it is the basis increase after this big move up in the fall lester, that is being put back bit. the direction should still be on the hold to the upside. , that hold that thought is one view on the bond market. let's ring another voice into the conversation. we had president trump yield with -- meet with cabinet members. we caught up with the man seated on the presidents left. expect a plan from the white house on tax reform. >> i expected a much more deliberate, logical approach than trying to pass health care and 17 days. that is not going to happen. in the tax year which is good for everyone. i also think there will be a circle back on health care. manus: the ceo speaking to bloomberg. i listened to a little bit more of it. not tax cuts. the argument

all the economic data looks fine. china is getting stronger, europe is picking up, u.s. economic growth is decent, unemployment is relatively low. >> so look, he says what he's been saying. the market looks fairly or fully -- close to fully valued. it's still positive, though. >> why is everybody trying to run away from the united states. >> that's the point i'm trying to make. we should not have a discussion of the u.s. versus the rest of the world. you're supposed to have an asset allocation that includes both. and when you're doing that, if we're going to have a discussion whether to overweight relative to a strategic target, you have to have a discussion about the dollar. josh, you pointed out relative returns over the last few years, europe in particular versus the u.s. you can't ignore the dollar's effect on that. in local currencies, those markets have done a lot better. the problem is, is most of us and our listeners are dollar investors and the dollar returns are what matter. so you have to have an opinion about the dollar. >> currency is a source of risk. and be

but in terms of the economic data, it has been remarkably resilient over the last nine months.sed up its forecast for britain's economy this year to 2%. the chancellor will return from his us trip at the weekend, back to an election battle where the promises the parties make two voters will be key. as far as mr hammond is concerned, the fewer, it would seem, the better. kamal ahmed, bbc news, washington. len mccluskey, leader of britain's biggest trade union, unite, has been re—elected as its general secretary following a ballot of members. mr mccluskey fought off a challenge from his more moderate rival, gerard coyne, who was suspended from his post yesterday pending an investigation. but only 12% of unite's million plus members voted. let's go to westminster and speak to oui’ let's go to westminster and speak to our political correspondent. what's the significance then of len mccluskey holding onto hisjob?” suppose it's significant for those million—plus members that you mentioned in unite. a wider political significance too. it was a really derisory turnout, 12%, lower than

speaking of that uncertainty, the other big debate happening right now is between the hard economic data soft survey-based data. what side do you fault on? more importantly, which do you think the fed is giving more weight to? >> i think the moment, the fed path dependent a p line. they are not waiting to see if that is energy push inflation. they are saying, if we don't do this now, we probably won't get a chance. let's have three to four cuts, and wait for the hard data to catch up with the soft data. i think the hard data matters over the long-term, over the next year. we have changed definitely, with donald trump as president, but we need to get infrastructure or tax reforms in the next three months, real concrete evidence of that. >> i mentioned oil. we did see a little bit of a spike in brent off of the back of what happened in syria, but it kind of petered out. the overarching theme in oil markets has to be the tension between the opec production cuts and u.s. oil rigs, which have been rising for weeks. how will that play out? >> the runways are back up and operational. the key is

the other big debate happening is between the hard economic data and the soft survey-based data.de do you fall on, and which do you think the fed is giving more weight to? >> the fed is following a path-dependent line. we are seeing inflation coming through here they are not waiting to see if that is energy-push inflation. now,save we don't do this we probably won't get a chance. let's have three or four cuts and see how it goes. i think the hard data is what matters in a long-term. we have change, definitely, with donald trump as president. we need infrastructure or tax reform in the next three months, real, concrete evidence. saw aentioned oil and we spike in brent over what happened in syria on friday, but it peter doubt. the overarching steam has to be and oil rigs, the tension has been rising for weeks. the runways are back up and operational. do we see a massive de-escalation of the geopolitics? i don't think so. i don't think the markets think so. what matters is the tension between opec cuts and rigs coming on. they will stabilize the oil market in terms of u.s. oil produ

and so i think they are taking off some of the protection today, number two, and even though the economic dataoversold recently. that was a factor. we had a little bit of a late day rally. steve mnuchin made comments with the take away, don't worry so much about definites. if we get significant growth, that overcomes everything. what's that they said in the 80s. growth that matters. >> bob, thank you very much. impressive rally as we prepare for earnings. united airlines and netflix and one investor says gm should get rid of the dividend coming up on "closing bell" with kelly evans. see you tomorrow, kelly. >>> thank, bill, welcome to the closing bell. i'm kelly evans. dow up 184 points on the bell, 2 20637 there is the level. remember we topped out for all the averages, more comments from secretary that cricketed to that, and s&p up, and nasdaq up nine tenths a percent, 5856, russell at 1361. yield, dollar, movers here. earnings season in high gear, though, starting right now. julia is standing by covering netflix's results this hour. susan lee with the earnings from united. thank you, guys,

the other big debate happening right now is between the hard economic data and the soft survey-basedt side you fall on? which do think the fed is giving more weight to it the moment? >> the fed is following a very path dependent line. we are there or thereabouts in terms of unemployment. we seeing inflation coming through. we don'tust saying if do this now, we probably won't get the chance. let's just make three to four cups and see how it goes and wait for the hard data to catch up with the soft data. i think this is what matters in the long term over the next year. we have change with donald trump as president. we need to see the hard dj come through does the hard data come through. are going to stay with us and we are going to be talking about a lot more coming up. including the outlook for oil and the saudi arabian economy. we did have the price of crude rising for another week off the back of the tensions in syria. let's find out whether or not that is going to keep going. this is bloomberg. ♪ tracy: you are watching bloomberg markets: middle east. live from dubai, i'm tracy all

while the weak economic data may be good news with respect to the fed, not hiking rates, from my perspectivemagine financials were strongest performers in this session. also technology stocks, they act great after the close netflix, you can see turning around, it was initially down after the results, the stock is trading higher, good news that s&p 500, every sector were in the green. bad news is it came on very light volume. now tomorrow, president trump will visit, snap on tools in milwaukee, wisconsin, highlighting this is an all american business. i think this is a great sign for investors, wondering what american stocks to add? this is one of my favorite names in the group, i would be a big buyer, it is extremely oversold, i think it could double. i have details on wstreet.com. joining me, let's talk about this. trump rally, starting to struggle a little bit. first 5 weeks we set all kinds of records, post-election, now since inauguration, starting to stumble a little bit, a lot of people are pointing to the failed health carro health care, roll out. >> means tax reform, that is what mar

want the government saying prices should be low, but if you look at it with more of the nuances side of economics and dataould suggest, you recognize that that comes with a significant cost, and the cost is that you limit competition and investment in the long term and consumers end up bearing the brunt of that lost opportunity. and so regardless of the marketplace we're talking about, that's pretty much the way i look at things, is the marketplace -- what are the facts in the market place? do our rules match the needs of the marketplace, and if not, how do we appropriately repeal them or revise them to benefit consumers and competition. >> just returning to privacy for a moment, there were some groups that specifically asked the fcc to at least issue new guidance on how it would enforce privacy protections and republicans on the hill are urging you to enforce privacy. do you foresee even in the interim period issuing some form of guidance on what that looks like? >> that's one of the things we're looking at. we received not long ago the letter from the hill and i did see that letter as well has been subm

the u.s. census data with the u.s. economics census and you can see the rise in the hispanic population in those industries. >> host: were these jobs going untended? >> guest: so, one of the things that got me interested in this project was this discourse about they take jobs nobody wants. i am remembering even the then president fox of mexico in 2005 was praising immigrants for their diligence and hard work during jobs and he said that not even jobs blacks wanted to do. when i look at the poultry industry in the 1980s for example, in those states, most of the workers were african-american. people would say things like they took them out of the cotton fields and put them into the poultry industry or the cotton belt is now the broiler belt. it used to be cotton is king and now it is poultry is king. so the jobs were filled with people who were doing work. african-americans mostly. there is lots of anecdotal evidence about, for example, the hamlet fire was a poultry fire that went a blaze and there were 25-30 people who died. ther

the euro is down about 1over th 12 months. >>> still ahead, we'll look at economic data and the french we'll be joined. we'll be joined. bp uses flir cameras - we'll be joined. a new thermal imagining technology - to inspect difficult-to-reach pipelines, so we can detect leaks before humans can see them. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better. >>> welcome bax to "worldwide exchange." u.s. equities painting a better picture. s&p up a fraction of the a point. nasdaq got hit the hardest last week. with us it peter boockvar ahead of the lindsey group. what will you be watching this week? >> well, the interview you just did, i assumed that macron was probably going to win and i think the markets assumed that but i think as we get closer with all of these different candidates, maybe it is. maybe that's why the cac is down. i assumed le pen had no chance. and the other far left candidate came out of nowhere. signing geopolitics, usually, the effect is fleeting. we get worried about it, people then shift back their focus to economy and earnings. i still think

. >> look at all the disappointing economic data we've had talking about gdp, autosales, look at what, you know, so to me, the jobs data today, there's a lot of things that actually could go very wrong for the banks a couple things that could go right but the biggest issue is, if he decides to do deregulation by executive order i think that betrays a lot of that pop list message that was in the campaign and i'm not sure he's going to let a couple goldman-sachs guys do that. >> 50% of the slf is going to report and to me, when i look at option prices they're relatively cheap here. if you have some big gains in some of these names and you want to hold on to them, you think we could see some volatility to me i think it makes sense to look @xlf as a hedging product or use options to make a defined risk. so to me, today when the xlf was trading 23.60, you could look at april expiration, buy the 23.5, paying 27 cents, it's a little bit more than 1% of the underlying stock price now i know that it's just for two weeks but when you think about all those events, everything that we're talking a

the economic data is very solid. n a little down taken inflation -- a downtick in inflation. it's not what we've seen in the last couple of months. as we get close to that date, the likelihood is that it is going to happen. julie: we have seen the faltering of the reflation trade postelection. that includes for the s&p 500 also. it sounds like your optimism within financials would maybe spread to the entire market as well. is that correct? randy: we have also seen a little bit of a softening on tech that didn't take off as quickly as some of the other sectors did. part of it has to do with many of the tech leaders being located in california and not necessarily trumps based supporters, if you will. when the logic came to the market and we have seen a little bit of softening. i believe we have been this way since the election that whenever we get a bit of a pullback, we are only 2% off of the march 1 ties. -- highs. not only in financials but tech and others as well. julie: and let's get to the options part of it. beca

stock prices do just fine, so stock markets are taking it as confirmation that the good news in the economic datan europe, , profits growing, i think he would see interest rates higher as a confirmation that was happening. not expecting too much change in the short-term. jonathan: banks are the epicenter of the squeeze. to get behind the banks, they need higher rates? >> it is part of it. we think europe is getting towards the end of that. higher rates will help. u.s.,siness models in the first quarter earnings pretty strong. it is a number of different things, but step one is removing , reducing the level of political risks. the hikes and how mario draghi has reverse some of them. he steps down 2019. the real issue is whether or not we can believe these economic earnings numbers we are seeing. if we can, a little more cannot make that much difference. alix: who has the power in the central bank world? is it really mario draghi? is that what it will take to get money coming out of the u.s. into europe? >> he is still one of the most powerful men in europe. policydes whether ecb and where it is he

but that's against the backdrop where most of hard economic data has been weak. kind of mixed signals. >> it good enough to keep this trading above historic recommendation and your horde ryes going up? >> i think we will be higher at the end of the year and now. but i think it may be rocky between now and then. >> what causes that, was it because of a burst of geopolitical tensions? we've had negative after negative, including house speaker paul ryan saying don't expect tax reform anytime soon. and yet the market as pulled up? >> it is, the market has remarkably resilresilient. it's not priced for bad news. it's priced for pretty good news. so, i think the issue over the next couple months is what sort of pro-growth policies do we get. i think at least part of that reality we've had, partly driven by the good earnings of the fundamentals is based on expectations and more aggressive policies which we get some policies that end up being kind of a nothing burger, where you get maybe a neutral tax cut. or you get other things which are not really major fiscal policy