the economic data in europe looks hot, but inflation calls. begin with a big issue -- the payrolls report. >> it isn't bad. i wouldn't overreact to this report. >> growth in the jobs market is solid. >> disappointing in many ways. >> a .3% increase in wage growth. you have to look at the round the last 12 months and we could still be a path of up to 3% so that would be a sign of improvement in the job market. >> the job creation is fine. the wages was .3 with the revision down to .1 so a .2% per month. if we can get wages pulling, you can get inflation going, which is what the fed wants to get going. >> i do think you are seeing marketetty solid labor that's not necessarily extremely overheating, but it's a good thing for markets and equities. >> this is not a labor market humming along. it is certainly not consistent with needing to raise rates. and i think it pushes the fed possibility of raising back. this is a labor market that potentially looks like it's beginning to slow. >> the labor market is actually really hot, but the run rate for j

the entire market firmly believes that we are in a growth momentum phase. whatever the data is, we will look through that. jonathan: is that really the takeaway now? forget the economicrishna: don't pay that much attention to the economic data for the first half of the year. torss bad for pontificate like us, but it is a good situation for the markets. jonathan: we put you guys in your box and get quick final thoughts. we will go through a couple of questions. we begin. -- growth that should rich, inflation poor story, is that regime here to stay through 2018? michael: yes. krishna: yes. kathy: yes. jonathan: could the treasuries hit by year-end? zero michael: no. kathy: no. krishna: yes. jonathan: the reduced yield exposure to zero -- would you reduce high-yield exposure to zero, get out, or stay in? michael: keep some in. kathy: reduce but stay in. krishna: stay in. jonathan: my special thanks to all of you. thank you michael, kathy and , krishna. that does it for us this week as we kick off a brand-new year in 2018. happy new year to you. we will see you next friday at 12:30 p.m. new york, 5:30 in london. this was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ is th

numbers have been largely bogus china's admitted to it in the past and we know that the reliability of their economic data from various regions are just simply not quantifiable plain as that but in the big cities where you find luxury hotels coal is king there and that's driving much of the economic data we're saying today just look at how much mining for metals and coal account for local g.d.p. that is later transmitted to the overall national g.d.p. now the darker regions mining accounts for as much as forty percent of the market and those provinces and specifically the large portion that is inner mongolia. visuals they're admitted to over inflating their twenty six thousand mining numbers to look more favorable you can probably assume then that the same is true for their twenty fifteen numbers to the g.d.p. reported versus reality shows a steep spike up nearly twenty five percent from the year before that sort of swing is just not realistic but across the country coal remains steady almost kind of flat brant crude and steel looked almost inextricably tied to one another both taking dips in twenty fifte

number two story is the week ahead come all that economic data. meetingse, fed tomorrow and wednesday, janet yellen's last meeting come and the jobs numbers friday. what is the most important set of data you are looking at? >> i will be watching the state of the union. to see what happens. i think it will be the topic of conversation for everyone this week. on the numbers front, i think friday will be the most interesting of all. we have seen 2% so far. 2.3% would beove substantial for breakevens. we have been stuck between 2% and 2.2% on the upside. a point where breakeven accelerates beyond 2.3, that would be a huge signal , and also a signal that inflation forecasts are too light here it there has been no evidence of inflation pressure. to get there you have to have tremendous wage pressure in the labor data on friday. friday is an important day. if you get that pressure starting to show signs of life, we could be in a new regime. david: what happened? we are waiting for inflation, then all of a sudden there is inflation in the united states and

the entire market firmly believes that we are in a growth momentum phase. whatever the data, we will look through that. jonathan: that the take away? krishna: don't pay that much attention to the economicfor the first half of the year. for people like us, but it is a good situation for the markets. jonathan: we put you guys in your box and get quick final thoughts. poorrowth rich inflation story, is that regime here to stay through 2018? michael: yes. krishna: kathy: yes. kathy: yes. jonathan: could we had zero by your zen? michael: no. kathy: no. krishna: yes. jonathan: the reduced yield exposure to zero, get out or stay in? michael: keep some in. kathy: reduce but stay in. krishna: stay in. jonathan: thank you all. krishna.kathy and that does it for us this week as we kick off a brand-new year in 2018. happy new year to you. we will see you next friday at 12: 30 p.m. new york, 5:30 in london. this was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg etf iq." we focus on the assets, risks and rewards offered by etf. ♪ scarlet: is the tide turning for commodity with oil back at $60 and them trading at 11 month high. what are the best etf's for this recovery? we sit do

as karen was talking about, you have a fed that might be worried about the economic data. the economic data is strong. nobody can say that that is not correct. here's the problem -- expectations are too lofty so you have the disconnect of a fed that appears to want to be more aggressive on the data anened an investor that's been too high in expectations on the sentime sentiment. so as they equal out you'll get this volatility. this will be the greatest opportunity for professional active managers because you're going to get to buy -- i like to call them wooshes. you're going get this whoa, what was that that's from a market that's active. >> a 1.57 decline on the s&p 500. is that the woosh you buy? >> no, it's not. let's do what most strategists won't do i will give youparameters to what qualifies as a woosh. i will take the percentage of stocks above their ten-day moving average dropping down 10%. >> from where is it now. >> i didn't check it at the end of the day probably somewhere in the 20s to 30 the vix at 20 not at 14 as karen pointed out. you need a higher vix so may

the economic data in europe looks hot, but inflation calls. a big issue -- the payrolls report. >> it isn't bad. i wouldn't overreact to this report. >> growth in the jobs market is solid. >>

but that's still the base case. >> reporter: it seems as long as the economic data and the earnings are strong, the market will remain untroubled by those rate hike clouds on the horizon. for "nightly business" i'm steve liesman. >>> and now to those bank earnings we mentioned a bit earlier. jpmorgan's resul were stronger than expected. the biggest u.s. bank by assets reported decent loan growth and got help from higher interest rates. that sent shares of the dow component higher. >>> blackrock also topped analysts estimates. it now has a record, sit down for this, $6 trillion in assets under management, as investors flock to low cost funds. the company raked in the equivalent of a billion dollars of new client money every day last year. on the flip side is wells fargo, which saw total loans decline and was not able to benefit from rising interest rates, at least not so far. in trading today, shares did what you might expect them to do. blackrock went up. wells fargo wt the other way. >>> here to dig a little bit deeper into today's earnings and what we might expect to see from other ba

if the economic data continues to surprise, the fed may get more aggressive. but that's a story for later in the year. the bears argue the market is expensive. it true, but when you have an economic expansion like this, with a rise in earnings, the multiples can be higher than normal. the final bear argument, a terrorist at or a serious conflict with north korea ma ma concern, but the markets have learned not to price in these events unless they're imminent. for "nightly business r" bob pisani at the new york stocexchange. >>> so which stocks played a major role in taking the dow to its new high? our dominic chu takes a look at that one. >> reporter: it took les a year for the dow to march from 20,000 to 25,000. let's take a look some of the names that really powered that big 5,000-point move, because we all know the dow jones indu is a price weighted index. the stocks with the highest share prices move the index the most. that being said, check out that move. 5,000 points in a little under a year. the biggest contributor to the dow during that span, boeing, th

the economic data in europe looks hot, but inflation cools. g issue -- the payrolls report. >> it isn't bad. i wouldn't overreact to this report. >> growth in the jobs market is solid. >> disappointing in many ways.

. >> toipt go bai want to go back point, if the economic data keeps advancing, beating expectations like this, could we go to the point now where good news becomes bad news because we're actually concerned the fed may be much more aggressive in their rate hikes >> as i said in the interview that i did for you, the year end, i would watch not so much the economy perking up, but does inflation follow suit? if inflation remains dodormant, the fed will not be that active. >> gentlemen >> thank you, guys see you later. see bob at the close arthur, as always, tip of the hat from the man see you later. >>> now to washington where president trump earlier today weighed on this historic milestone for the dow. cnbc's eamon javers has that story from the white house right now. eamon? >> reporter: you know, bill, here at the white house they wear those red make america great again hats, not the blue dow 25,000 hats art cashin was featuring. they're no less enthusiastic about the milestone. we saw the president earlier cheering on dow 25,000 and offering us a prediction of just how high he thinks the

growth rich inflation, the economic data in europe looks hot, but inflation cools. the payrolls report. >> it isn't bad. i wouldn't overreact to this report. >> growth in the jobs market is solid. >> disappointing in m

economicwhile data is one thing to consider, the earnings data that catches the economic data sometimes- detaches the economic it is sometimes. with respect to the 500 companies in the s&p 500, their pace of earnings growth is somewhat determined by economic growth but not entirely. alix: you will be sticking with us. coming up, oil continuing is retrieved from a three-year high, what it means for big oil earnings of the end of the week. ♪ alix: you are looking at a live shot of a super, blood moon over los angeles. it is close to earth and really full and will be a total lunar eclipse. we have not seen it in 35 years. the thing i am most excited about today. oil,e markets, a look at the latest inventory numbers from u.s. today. stewart wallace is joining us. and gina martin adams of bloomberg intelligence is here. talk about the rise in oil. , it hase equity market had a magnificent change in equity market performance. that is because it took everyone by surprise. if you go back three months, four months, everyone thought oil prices would be contained. maybe below $55 for the better pa

the time. let us talk about the data. here's something really compelling. when you look at the real world, things look pretty good from an economicstandpoint. i put two lines on this chart. it is can a messy. the teal one is the manufacturing index. soaring to its highest level in a long time. and we have an update to the atlanta fed's gdt tracking index as one of the regional ideas that tracks every data point to try to get a sense of where the economy is headed. that is that ever 4.1% right now. as you see, it is noisy. in the last quarter, i want when it fell. the bottom line is things are looking pretty good. we will see what the last quarter revises to ultimately. julia: you were warning with your chart. joe: why bother to say -- in th is market? scarlet: you wonder how the fed will put this together on wednesday when they come up with their inflation and their outlook for the economy. the market close is next. we have the major indexes pulling back just a hair. the dow off by 100 basis points. good for 0.5% decline. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ julia: what'd you miss? stocks under a bit of pressure at the beginning of a busy week

yousef: i was trying to get your insight on the economic data we got overnight from the kingdom, showingals. on the one hand, we had the recovery coming through in terms of point of sales transactions. what does that tell us about the strength or weakness of saudi consumers? >> the weakness of consumption was expected. the other side, even the borrowing and the growth and earning, because of the spike of interest rates, the declining of borrowing will have to return to 1%. we are expecting that the new to 978, pluspike the investment of 83 billion reality, that might motivate and push investment in borrowing in the private sector. 2017, there were so many debts being paid out, almost 8% to 10% of the government spending has been paid in pew -- in q4. i can't consider it as a benchmark, the number. we have to watch and monitor q1. how is the private sector going to react? we have to watch and monitor the private sector in 2018. yousef: you are saying, we should wait a little bit, see the key data. we don't understand exactly what settlement was reached, but he is out and the anticorruptio

academics find interesting is something that will be a little bit of a story as they go through the economic data david: that was part of my interview with kevin hassett, chairman of the white house council of economic advisers. shery: you can catch all our interviews, including the interview right there. the function is tv . also our interview with vicente fox. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: it's 2:00 p.m. in new york, 11:00 in san fransisco, and 7:00 p.m. in london. julie: and i'm julie hyman, in for julia chatterley. welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ scarlet: we are live in bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. here are the top stories we are covering on the bloomberg and from around the world. it is time to get specific. private equity tighten jim coulter of tpg explains why he is moving away from general-purpose funds. and the company considering going public again, years after going private. and farmer in focus. health-care stocks touching a record after this drugmaker jaw-dropping forecast. reports from the industry. u.s. take the pulse with markets right now. abiga

the point that chinese data started to slow down. political risk, per se, it is the combination with economic data we have to focus on. d: i'm glad you brought up north korea. the lines are open, that is the news going into this morning. tensionslook at compared to where they were a week back, they are arguably lower at this point. the point is, does it lower the risk profile of north korea in 2018? callum: certainly good news that the lines are opening and a dialogue is being soft between the north and the south korea, although the rationale for that remains unclear and it could be an attempt by north korea to south the u.s. from korea. also, don't forget we have had escalated rhetoric already from north korea and the u.s. in terms of nuclear buttons and the size of those nuclear buttons. the risk for that certainly has not gone away by any means. let's have a look at currencies right now. we are seeing a broad, sustained move out of the u.s. dollar. the dollar -- dollar index around 92. don't you get the feeling it is a bit overdone? callum: certainly i would agree with that in the short term for a couple of reasons.

find really interesting, is something that will be a little bit of a story as we go through the economic dataover the last few months. there is a famous paper by austan goolsbee, for example, who show that around tax changes, people tend to locate their bonuses on the right side of the tax rate change. if the tax rate is going down, as it is here, people delay their bonus from last year to january. if you look at the income side, it appears there was some of ist activity going on, which really good news for the most nerdy viewers, which means that there are interesting moments in the statistical discrepancy in the next few quarters as well. david: let's return to the durable goods you raised. 2.6%, compared to .8%. at the same time, if you look below the numbers, if you take the x defense from a negative number, .3%. is that right? kevin: you are right about airplanes being a big deal and being volatile. the part of their mobile goods orders that i have looked at and alan greenspan taught me to do this when i was at the fed more than 20 years ago, is to look at the nondefense capital goods, i

a lot of attention also focused on the economic data ahead, including the focus on cpi, inflation and. su: cpi very much a data point that will be focused on. a survey by bloomberg, i believe what we will see, a moderating of the price increases. they believe that the december oil prices, for instance, slowly had gained and that will see a moderate cpi number. there's also going to be a big focus on the retail sales data. it's expected to gain for the fourth straight month. again, retail sales have been strong in the holiday season, you're looking at packages going , it's expected to pump up the number, a shot in the arm for a lot of retailers. in terms of market direction, let's go to the bloomberg one more time, 2851. pullback,0 lack of days without if 5% drawdown, where approaching a record we haven't seen since the 1990's, 292 days straight without a major pullback. .gain, that is unprecedented the longest streak of this measure since the 1920's was in the 1960's, that was 386 trading days. a lot of chart watchers believe the short form -- short-term on.iment will be risk this is

really been driven by higher earnings and as long as earnings continue to grow and a long as the economic data that we've got continues to look very good and it has been very good in the u.s. i think that the winds behind equities will remain and i think that hiccups that come from concern about higher rates whether based on good reasons are bad reasons, the economy can grow into higher rates as long as there is actual growth momentum. i would be looking more towards what would derail that growth momentum. inflation if it does occur could do that. that would require the fed to start raising rates beyond where maybe the market would be supportive of the market. vonnie: you're not a little concerned that the idea that an official said this might be theng talked about has sent 10 year up to 2.58% and has widened the curve to 60 basis points? not a massiveis moves but given the moves we have been seeing it is. >> it takes place within the context of rising rates. people are thinking in that direction and along comes the story which has caused jitters for some time. i have been having conversations

and the justification for that is that we have had some very strong economic data. ht the ism we had out from the u.s. earlier this week and the pmi data from the eurozone. and if you look, for example, at at aerman data, we are record high. across the board, america coming europe, and asia data -- everything is looking very strong indeed. and the perception that central banks are behind the curve, rightly or run. and the expectations of the fed are in the process of changing. there is a consensus among investors that bond yields look unattractive and you are seeing a further push into asset allocation at the beginning of the year into equity markets. ignore is one cannot the expectation of high growth in the u.s. based on the tax reform bill. guy: let me pull up this chart. the gap between the u.s. and the rest of the world is expanding. a -- youfore, you left have to look at 2018 and say -- and i in the u.s. or not in the u.s.? am i in the u.s. or not in the u.s.? the u.s. is where the growth is coming from. we are late cycle there. seeing late cycle euphoria. bob:

if the economic data continues to surprise, the fed may get more aggressive with rate hikes, but that's for later in the year the bears also argue the market is expensive, and it is, but when you have an economic expansion with rise in earnings multiples can be higher than normal and the final argument that if there's a terrorist attack or a conflict with north korea, that could drop the markets, and that's a concern, and the market has learned not to drop the market unless things are imminent so far, things are not imminent. >>> the white house issued a statement on the dow crossing the 25,000 the president was quick to celebrate the stock market move and suggested there is still more to come >> we did, in fact, break 25,000, substantially break it, easily so i guess our new number is 30,000 what it means is that every time you see that number go up on wall street, it means jobs, it means success, it means 401(k)s flourishing. >> joining us to discuss these record highs in u.s. equities amongst other equities is nick davidson, senior equities portfolio manager from alliance bernstein.

pascale, the sense is to pick up on the basic economic data with impressive growth and record levels of employment. the country is pretty much on autopilot, and there is no problem. yes, butat the moment, no decisions can be made, not on the european level, no policy decicisions for germany. but it's true that this is happening on the betting of economic wealth. unemployment is low. state is well-off. and this is great luck. it is happening with an economic crisis with uncertainties and fears, then it will be quite dangerous. not too much time. anchor: ok, but this week has been talked about as a decision week, derek? what is being decided this weekend? what makes it so crucial or not? derek: at the risk of the boy who cried wolf, the journalist keeps saying "breakthrough. breakthrough." the cure for cancer. theal democrats have -- leaders of the party have come up with a preliminary plan. they are going to put that to 600 party delegates this weekend. y yes, theyeyes say go into formal coalition talks. at the end of that procecess, or 400,000 social democrats and voters, the rank and

that how much higher can this market go, you know, the question really is no one knows however the economic data, the earnings, the tax reform, just the global pressure we're seeing, positive pressure, is continuing to move this market positive. >> we've been talking here on the desk that this is going to be a very, very interesting year it's now not the prospect of tax reform we have tax reform and we have companies that are performing very, very well gentlemen, thank you very much we appreciate it. >> thank you >> thank you. >>> weekly rig counts just out jackie deangelis at the commodity desk with the numbers. >> u.s. drillers added ten new oil rigs this week taking the total up to 752, that's up 230 from a year ago this according to baker hughes. this is the first week in five that oil rigs were added, which is interesting because oil has found new support over $60 a barrel as prices have been on the rise u.s. drillers seem to remain a little conservative, cautious it's possible this number means the tide is turning but maybe too early to make that call. we did start the session negative in

argue that the market is acting very rationally than what's happening in the bond market and in the economic data. utilities are now down 11.4% from their peak. that is the biggest drawdown they have had in quite some time they are back at march 2017 lows look at reits getting slammed today. down almost 2%, a big move for that asset class in a single day. hold on, let me finish. >> which probably has something to do with rates. >> on the flip side take a look at the regional banks, a 2% one-day move they are busting out they are breaking out of ten-year highs breaking above them, and when you look at the charts individually, they look incredible i'm old enough to remember 18 months ago people saying sell them because of oil exposure and now oil exposure is a good thing so things change very fast before you're ready for them, and i think a diversified portfolio makes more sense than to say get out of all your bonds, buy all your stocks because we could have a very short sharp drawdown that's 10% for the s&p where bonds make it so that you only really had a .5 -- you know, a 5% draw dawn so you've

have been making announcements from time to time, but this time it is different, at least from the economic datast few months. you can see the chinese growing more confident and economic growth, so that basically gives them more power and room to .eally do it i think that is the difference. before you did not have that much power to really do something right, and now is time. haidi: ok. assuming we get a good gdp read this week, and assuming that to puteijing a buffer through greater reforms and regulations, what should we be expecting for the rest of this year? i think we will see more and more this time of new regulations. what we have seen so far his they are doing all different areas, not only shadow banking, but corporate governance and other areas for the financial industry. also, i think we will get a better idea in march after the national people's congress, then we will see more and more, because this time it looks like they are more determined. , and: more determined maybe more of a window. he has fed mandate after last year's party congress. thank you so much for that. has selected mo

the government adp adds to a running series of economic surprises seeing goldman sachs economic surprise, index surge to new levels. bottom line, the street keeps underestimating the strength of the economic datahe market rides those surprises higher all of that adds up to overall economic growth that for three straight quarters looks to be running well ahead of potential. second and third quarters of the year offering the first consecutive quarters of 3% plus growth since 2013 and the cnbc wrap it up for the fourth quarter, still healthy at 2.7% growth those kinds of numbers come along with good corporate profit growth, ultimately the fuel of stock market gains all of this the result of policies from the president, you may ask? certainly he's taking credit for it more than likely a combination of forces put in place before he took office. some effects from the better business confidence, his election ushered in as well as wealth effects by the stock market debate for a long time i would be, feel more comfortable judging the economic effects of the trump presidency after another year or so because that first quarter he's just in office, but definitely a confidence effect and whether or not tha

we have seen this run for stocks, the latest fuel, the economic data we have had.catalyst are you looking for? do you think we will continue to see this momentum? >> i think we are likely to continue seeing this momentum. we will keep watching economic news keep looking at the fed, i think a lot of this is fueled by the tax cut. it is a case of rumor and news. --ie: when are the others one of the other events we're looking ahead to has to do with the imposition of the tariffs on imported solar modules. that could happen at the end of the month. it has helped one stock in particular, solar. your trade has to do with that stock. what to your attention beyond the news to a trade on first solar? when i set of traits, i like the perfect storm. a combination of a technical and fundamental set up. what to my attention was the stock because of the story of the potential tariffs, it could be up to 35% if all goes the way first solar hopes. we also see support at $71 a share. more support down at about $67.5, if you look at a chart, once it has gone above these support level

a slowdown in china will not have the same impact on global commodities that we thought, might not be a bad place to be. overnight, china reported some key economic datahat showed gdp grew at 6.9%, the fastest since 2010. this is a chart that shows the white line is gdp growth. the blue line is credit and credit growth. can they afford to cut back on the credit? stephanie: this has been throughout the whole lot's of years we have wanted china to reform, that they constantly worry abouthey growth and the broader public consequences of that. what we have seen and one of the upside surprises over the last year or so is they have managed to have a process combining fiscal support with the supply side reforms that china tackled a little bit of deleveraging and overhang in some of the steel industry and elsewhere. it is sort of paying off. i do not expect -- think we should not expect the slowdown. i do not think it will have the consequences we think. alix: does this make donald trump angry? marty: i do not think so, but another number we should look at is their holdings in u.s. treasuries. advisers to the chinese government had suggested perhaps that they

run ok we'll talk about that in just a moment but of the senses just to pick up on the the the basic economic data with impressive growth and record levels of employment the country is pretty much on autopilot and there is no problem. at the moment yes but no decisions can be made not on the european level new policy decisions for germany but it's true that this is happening on the on the bedding of of economic wealth unemployment is low the starts ghassan them in the eighty's is where a lot of office the office the state is well off and this is a great luck i mean if it was happening in economic crises and uncertainties and fears then it would be quite dangerous we still have a little bit of time not too much ok but this week is being talked about is a decision week there it won't what is being decided this week and what makes it so crucial all knots in your view are all of us need to understand that the risk of the boy who cried wolf i mean we can call as a journalist keep saying breakthrough breakthrough it's like the cure for cancer at this stage what we have is the social democrats have the l

the constraining factor. and as -- and this week, as you point out there is is some , economic data. he jobs numbers, but the average hourly earnings numbers, which we like to look at. that peaked 2.8% earlier in the year, which was a post crisis high, and is now trending down, closer to 2.5%. and so that is in the real mystery why the lower unemployment rate has not translated higher wages. but this low level of inflation, which is very sluggish to move higher, that's a real conundrum. janet yellen referred to that as a mystery, and we think that will be the ultimate constraining factor for the fed as they go forward. there is only so long they can ignore it. i think at the last meeting in december, you actually had two dissenters. so you had a bit of momentum , that may beginning to build that may be beginning to build and pushing back against the idea the fed can continue to hike rates with inflation as low as it is. julie: all right. it is time for the rapid fire round. i will start with kathleen and go around the horn. kathleen does the yield curve , invert in 2018? kathleen: yes

kathleen: the minutes basically said the ecb is looking at the economic data getting stronger, linkingto a possible shift in forward guidance. a low inflation target not as important as growth so much. bill dudley, president of the new york fed, speaking in new york area, talked about an overheating risk. if you get a tax cut, it saturates fiscal policy come on top of growth already looking above trend to him. if the fed waits to raise rates, it could be quicker. he talked about overheating in inflation, inflation could exceed the 2% target. you do not want the fed to have to raise rates rapidly. he sees the case for three rate hikes in 2018. let's look at one more chart. the next thing we are watching is the consumer price report that comes out friday morning in u.s. time. this is the cpi year over year, 1.7%. that is the forecast for december, as well. far from the 2% target. the main gauge, only at 1.5%. another way where the bears and bulls can still have a lot to debate. we will see what happens. it is early 2018. this could be the year, we shall see. betty: in the next segment we

there up 1.8% the shanghai composite up 0.8% south korea seeing gains of a similar amount the key economic data in asia will be china's gdp print on thursday the dax up 0.7%. interestingly enough, european stocks yesterday moved lower on the back of the outperformance in the euro. today stocks in europe are rebounding >>> checking in on commodities oil had a great week last week up 0.7% on friday. up 0.4% for the week as a whole. this morning 64.4. nat gas was up sharply last week with the cold weather. also this morning giving up 3% >>> gold prices, just to round things off, up about a percent last week, broadly flat today. 1334 the price >>> a key market of the global rally is the foreign exchange markets with a weaker dollar three-year low, that's where the dollar was trading at yesterday. a bit of a different story today. the euro 1.22. the u.s. dollar higher against the yen by 0.15% the pound yesterday at 1.38 against the green back the last time had traded at that level was june of 2016 around the eu referendum. bitcoin is moving the opposite direction of stocks, sliding as much as 10% in

my view looking at the euro going forward and can pairing comparing the market economic data, 13 yearighs on pmi data. wherere so full behind the fed started raising rates, and the ecb move towards an interest rate path normalization, i think the euro plus,ccelerate to 1.30 and we are holding that view solidly through 2018. yousef: your thoughts on what is happening with the yen? concern that policy makers will start intervening more? where does it go from here? >> that was the reaction this morning. we heard jawboning out of boj short traits to be pulled out of the market. for theominant view is market to sell dollars, and i would be surprised to not see dollar-yen trading lower. in the back of traders mind, the boj will move off this. i think that tends to be filtering into the market. some fading of this move as we move through the day today. yousef: stephen, you are sticking around. we still have plenty to get through. let's get you a preview. why m&a momentum is likely to continue in 2018. at the, the yuan strongest level in years. china has the market guessing. this is bloomberg

despite the tepid economic data, despite uncertainty when it comes to the outcome of the brexit negotiationsecause of the dollar weakness, is continuing to rise. is there upside from here or are we near the peak? bob: i was going to ask you have a trade negotiations are going to go, that is a big factor. euro and a sterling is higher, sterling is weaker against the euro. and it tends to not move as much versus the dollar, so i would guess we will see it down in the low 1.30 by the year end. i do not think we will see a big move in sterling per se. and i think if you said a range for the year, a reasonable range, i would guess between 1.30-1.37 for the pound come i think will be fairly muted. talks andon the trade outlooks of the negotiations, from where you are sitting it is always good to hear an outsider's view. how do you think it will unfold? bob: slowly. you know, i think that what the u.k. has going for it is the u.k. is the second-largest export destination for eu countries. if you look at eu exports, first is the u.s., second is the u.k. and i think when the real negotiations start w

the u.s. economic surprise data at the highest level this millennium. strong economic data would drive demand for assets in that country. that divergence is quite interesting to look at. the dollar rand, the south african rand skyrocketing to its best level in more than two years. we saw the election of the ruling african national congress, seeing optimism about the countries outlook. analysts are saying don't get too excited, perhaps the market is getting ahead of itself but right now the run is that the two-year high. oil and gold rally continues its care. oil at $62 a barrel at one point today, and gold continuing its gains modestly. still about $13 -- $1300 an ounce. let's bring in mike reagan. we keep talking about how equity indexes are at record highs. it feels like we are obscuring the dow, which has been a strong index. >> it really has. it's interesting to see what has been driving it. aeing has contributed thousand points to the dow since president trump's election. probably because the way the dow is rated. -- is weighted. united health care