that is the situation with the economy. it is true that the u.s. and world economy went down much faster last fall and winter than we and almost all forecasters expected. the revised g.d.p. statistic shows the actual decline in g.d.p. growth in the third and fourth quarters of last year was about twice as large as the preliminary estimates we had at a time indicated. and the rise in the unfloiment rate has been exceptionally large, even given the large fall in g.d.p. that we now know occurred. the fact that the economy deteriorated between january, when we were doing our forecast, and the end of march, simply reinforces how crucial it was that we took acks when we did. well, now having gotten that off my chest, let me return to the question. a little more than five months after the recovery act was passed, can we see the effects on the macro-economy? again, the answer is almost surely "yes." the reason i say, "almost churely" is because the recovery act has only been effect for about five months. that means we only have one quarter of data on econom

as we close the week, we learned the economy declined by 1% in the last kwaurquarter. still down, that's the best quarter in some time. the president says he deserves some credit. the president said, there should be little debate that the steps we took together helped stop our economic freefall. is that right, to give the president credit? >> i think it's right the stimulus has had some effect. what i worry more than anything about is the long-term effects because we are committing generational theft. we have put trillions of additional debt on the future americans, and there is no one that i know that sees a way out of it in the words of the congressional budget office, so i think it's pretty clear, if you pump trillions of dollars into the economy, you will see some recovery. but the long-term consequences, i think, are going to be unfortunately did he haevastatis we do something about it. >> so is it a success or a failure? >> i think you could say it's a short term improvement in the economy, and i'll be glad to give him credit for that, but the question that i thi

the economy will get worse. the fact that the stock market has rallied tells me the numbers that we do not want this. the market tells us that we do not want healthcare reform and we are feign as we are right now. brenda: what does in mean for the economy, eric? >> i think the economy is on one trajectory the stock market the other. the economy is telling us we are not that great and we probably can't afford this. we have new hampshire town hall meeting president obama gets a question from a 14-year-old daughter of a supporter. then we have montana where they end up giving him a standing ovation. versus what you see right now, the people standing up saying hey, slow down. let's fiend out what is in the pill. let's find out how much is the cost. what they are showing us is vastly different from what the american people want. by doing so, we are finding out more. >> i'm shocked and dismayed eric. brenda: politicians often stage these on both sides of the aisle, pat. does this mean something for the economy that pro

and that's going to be a very positive development for the economy. terms of the long-term fiscal picture, the news that just came out does argue for more restraint in the future. the government is going to have to curtail spending but now i don't think is the time to begin to implement that fiscal restraint because there is still much more recovery that needs to take place. and we need the jobs. we need the demand because the consumer is not playing his or her traditional role. businesses are still not coming on-line in the strong way with respect to investments. we're going to get some help from the international economy as trading partners start to recover. so we really need the government to continue to provide demand which is a fundamental driver for the economy. >> dean baker, what is this news about the deficit tell new. >> well, i wish we had more details on it. but what i worry is the main reason for this increase in the deficit projections is they are projecting worse economic growth. because the last set of projections, those look relativel

just over half say they made the economy worse. some optimism, 58% of americans believe economic conditions will be good one year from now, 40% say they will be poor. >>> the obama administration has said the economy is improving, but deutsche bank is predicting by trouble in the housing market. cnn's christine romans is here to explain. how does this affect everybody? >> we know in the economy, many people think the free fall is over. but this shows you the house is still a very big question mark. this report shows the number of homes that it expects will be under water, the number of homeowners under water on their mortgage by the time there is a recovery. right now they say there are

we're going to need to continue to take steps to stimulate the economy like the very successful cash for clunkers program so that we're keeping at, doing everything we can to push this economy forward. but we are in a very different situation. we have walked back from what we were facing six months ago, and that is because of the policies that were put in place. >> when do you think the economy starts growing again? >> i think if you look at the overall output statistics, the gdp, as economists call it, very great likelihood -- and this is what most professional forecasters say -- is that we'll see growth going forward in the second half of this year. why? inventories have been run down, and firms are going to have to build those inventories back. the evidence is that from a very, very low base housing production, automobile sales are likely to start to increase, and the recovery and reinvestment program is going to gather force over the next six months as people are able to spend more of the extraordinary tax favors they've received, as more and more of the 3,000 projects come online

how worried should the economy be about this? if you look at the markets, it doesn't appear they're that worried about a banking system growing increasingly fragile agai again? >> i think we will be okay there. we are going through this cycle again and have banks fell and mega banks and the small business owner cannot get the financing they need continue to grow and have small community banks come back into the marketplace. i disagree with the comment those of banks failing. they shouldn't fail mainly the bigger issue is the consumer. if the consumer is scared and fearful they will not infuse capital back into the economy. >> you don't infuse capital in the economy by spending, we want to scare consumers out of reckless spending, they need to save money and don't want to encourage it. >> we're doing that now anyway. >> we don't want to do that. >> we would have a disaster on your hand. >> it shows you give out nobel prizes to anybody. >> we will leave it there. thank you for your time. thanks for joining us. next up on "cnbc repor

if iere the president, i would say my job, number one, is the economy, the economy, the economy. when you change message and you start to try to integrate melting care into this message, people get a little bit confused. and they haven't found the right language for it. chris: we were in a different recession period in the early 1990's. pennsylvania, being for health care was a way for saying you are solid with people with unemployment. >> that was presession and the fall of lehman brothers -- that was prerecession and the fall of lehman brothers. talking about the unsnoord -- chris: middle age people worried about their jobs and about portability, they won't have health care if they lose their job, that used to be a selling point for reform. >> right. chris: what happened? >> this isn't the argument they have been making. and it's actually the seam mistake that the clintons made. the obama administration has never made this argument about what's in it for the average person. chris: i don't understand y they're so slow on this. >> they've talked for months now about controlling co

ground, whether the recovery is gaining traction. my suspicion this is economyprobably could use a little bit more help, perhaps an extension of cash for clunkers program which is working marvelously well apparently, perhaps expansion to the housing tax credit because that's helping the housing market, to state governments so they don't cut their budget and help to state workers because unemployment is going to stay high and lots of people are going to be out of work a long period of time. i don't think we'll call it stimulus, i think it's difficult now given the political environment, i think we will find policymakers providing more help to the economy. >> a lot of focus this week is on the health care bill. from an economic point of view, what do you want to see and what do you hope is not in the final bill? >> well, three things have to happen to make this reform successful. first,most importantly, we have to insure most of the uninsured otherwise, it's not worth doing. second, we have to creditably pay for that. we have to make sure that the costs of insurin

that's what you're doing when you say we need more credit pumped into the economy. w we don't, we need the exact opposite of that, and what von mises example shows, and i know this is easy to take out of context and hostile people can interpret it the wrong way i am speaking to people of good will, not tax and propaganda when i say the recession period, the recession phase as painful as it can be is actually wind we are restored to health because look at the master builder it simple, when his era comes to light and he says wait a minute i am engaged in on sustainable project. i either have to scale back expectations or abandon this project and move to something else. that's a good thing because in fact the bad part was the boom when he was allocating resources when he was squandering them on projects the economy doesn't have the resources to finish that was bad and in porsche's us because a lot of these resources cannot be recovered so we are that much poor so the recession is when we say we have done a lot of stupid things we shouldn't have done and now we need to l

>> the economy. >> the economy. how is the obama administration doing on the economy. oh, that's the biggest news of the morning. an a plus. >> a teaser. >> no question, a "b." it's about the american people and the middle class and main street. and until they can recover. not just the banks, not just the corporations. it's middle class american. >> all right, a "b" and an incomplete. and you'll have a chance to grade the commander in chief. go online and do it yourself and stick around. "state of the union" will return after the break. to stay on top of my game after 50, i switched to a complete multivitamin with more. only one a day men's 50+ advantage... has gingko for memory and concentration. plus support for heart health. that's a great call. one a day men's. it's the chevy open house. and now, with the cash for clunkers program, a great deal gets even better. let us recycle your older vehicle, and you could qualify for an additional $3500 or $4500 cash back... on top of all other offers.. on a new, more fuel efficient chevy. your chevy dealer has more eligible mo

can we still think of the u.s. economy, the engine of growth is going to come from the consumer or has that changed through this financial crises? ken? >> i don't think it's going to be the same. i mean i don't think housing prices are going to come back. i don't think credit's going to be the same. i hope it's not going to be the same. i hope they're going to do some regulation. they are being very soft now but they have to reigning it in. we have to depend on exports and more on the government. i think eventually there will be another stimulus package, eventually there will be higher taxes. >> susie: mark? >> yes, i think we're at a point with respect to consumer spending. u.s. consumer power is growth. the global economy really for the past quarter century that's evident in the declining rate. and i think u.s. consumers will do their part and no more than that going forward. but the good news is we are seeing much stronger and will see much stronger growth from overseas in many emerging economies, india, china. those co

the fed is saying that the economy is leveling out. is that the fed's way of saying things are okay now? >> yeah, well, there's been growing evidence that perhaps the recession that we've been in since the end of 2007 is over. and i think that that's probably true. when we look back, i think the official end date will probably be sometime here in the third quarter. and i think the -- very importantly they also continue to signal that even though activity is leveling out, they still expect to keep rates low for an extended period. so you can see that even though they are acknowledging some improvement had the economy, they still see some vulnerability and they do not want market participants translating the improvement in the economy into the prospect of the fed raising rates my time soon, that is still not on the radar kreen. >> susie: michael, do you agree with michelle? what's your take away of the fed's decision? >> i thought it was an expected decision, but all in all pretty good news. before they said that the economy was still con

the economy and health care reform. that question to our guest on both sides of the political spectrum. rich galin and bill press is a nationally syndicated radio talk show host. >> hi, heidi. >> thank you for being with us, bill. gentlemen, president obama's approval rating has been steadily sliding in recent weeks. let's start this out by looking at least one of the polls that we have here. his approval and disapproval. this is a cnn opinion research corporation poll. 56% of people approve of the job he's doing. 40% disapprove. bill, to you first, these numbers are down. what's going on? >> as a president moves in office, his numbers inevitably go down. i would like to point out that is more than double the approval rating that george bush had when he left office. >> it's about the same as george bush had at this time in his administration. so, they're almost equal. >> that's fine. bush was under 20 before he left office. i just think. >> he has 7 1/2 years to go. >> rich, i'd like to finish this sentence here, okay. i

now, the struggling economy is a key issue for voters. fresh data out of japan today show deflation continues to dog the world's second biggest economy and no relief for job seekers unemployment rate hitting a record high last month. still in japan, toyota says it will shut down a plant it has held in california for 25 years. the news comes a few days after toyota said it is shutting down a production line in japan. toyota and other carmakers have been scaling back capacity in recent weeks to match a slowdown in sales. >>> and elsewhere, another deal in the resource space today, china's baosteel plans to invest $240 million for a 15% stake in aquila resources. the deal would give baosteel the right toni vest and codevelop most of aquila projects. a kwu ila surged 8.75% in sydney 7.15. courtney. >> dell's second quarter profits fell 27% as the company is being squeezed by week corporate funding. but revenues did rise for the first quarter and dell sees demand stabilizing. the ceo says he's optimistic that customers will start buying new pc

what does it mean for the economy. eady heard fiscal bankruptcy will damage the credibility of fed policy. that is the other link in this evening's program, what's it all mean for investors? (announcer) we understand. you need to save money. ♪ well i was shopping for ♪ which one's me - a cool convertible or an suv? ♪ ♪ too bad i didn't know my credit was whack ♪ ♪ 'cause now i'm driving off the lot in a used sub-compact. ♪ ♪ f-r-e-e, that spells free credit report dot com, baby. ♪ ♪ saw their ads on my tv ♪ thought about going but was too lazy ♪ ♪ now instead of looking fly and rollin' phat ♪ ♪ my legs are sticking to the vinyl ♪ ♪ and my posse's getting laughed at. ♪ ♪ f-r-e-e, that spells free- credit report dot com, baby. ♪ >>> it looks like fiscal bankruptcy and washington just reached all new highs, look at the right hand corner of your screen, the national debt clock there. it goes and it is ticking 11.7 trillion. it keeps ticking even here while we're sitting here having our program. the white house says they exp

., uk and the euro zone. those economiesat various stages are recognizing the debts of their own misfortunes and follies. the euro zone notably late in reaction to all of that. on this particular playing field, you would spec'd them to move farther and faster in the western economies compared to those in the east on all else being equal, that would suggest in the end eastern currencies would rise compared to the western. but that is kind of where i would see the answer to that question. >> okay. >> paul, this is christine. just to follow up on what you said, what kind of recovery are you looking to see, will it be a u shaped, w shaped, l shape? are you running out of alphabets? >> i don't see any of the alphabet letters that suit what i see. i think we've seen probably the worst of the worst and we'll probably get a quarter or two of positive gdp growth. that's fine. the problem i see is that if you look out beyond two quarters, the fed is pulling the punch bowl, the obama stimulus plan i don't think is going to work. once t

there are signs that the economy is picking up. new-car registrations rose 2.4% in july, the first rise in 15 months. house prices rose by 1.1%. unemployment is still rising. the economy is probably still shrinking. this quantitative easing is a tricky business and there could be too much money in the economy in a year or so or there might be too little. by the time the bank of england knows for sure, it will probably be too late. it is not turning off the tap yet. >> one main headline for you, the united states seeking to hold somalia together has publicly warned eritrea to stop armed islamic militants. an unexpected consequence of h1n1 swine flu is affecting egypt. organic waste has been piling up. the rat population is now booming. christian frasier reports. >> since the age of eight, he has recycled waste. 14 hours a day for 30 years and life just got even tougher. 85% of the rubbish that they retrieve is sorted, recycled, and resold. it is a fraud trial existence in which the pig plays a crucial role. each month, the day the mo

let's strengthen the economy. pressure off the deficit and then let's go after health care. now it's easy for me to say, but i think if obama had another chance, perhaps he would do it that way. there is still time for him, incidentally, to have a plan. i wouldn't give up on the public option. if the house says they're going to do it, they'll dot it, they've got the numbers to do it. they may be able to shape it and contour it in a way that it's not as offensive as it appears to be to some people. his biggest problem, i think, and if anybody can solve it, he can, because he has got this magnificent mind and the he w l willeloquence. when you say pup public option, the other side says -- you have to ease that myth. you have to remind people that medicare is socialized medicine. medicaid is socialized medicine. the road that eisenhower we built our socialized roads, public schools are socialized. the ships that are taking us to the moon are not by boeing, they are by the government, so they are socialized. because th

will he withdraw money from the economy on the right timing. l.a., you first. your reaction. >> well, that's half right. it is true that the chairman didn't recognize the signs of -- whether it was the housing bubble or the financial meltdown. i personally can't criticize him for that, because i was in the same position as he did, and i didn't see that coming. in terms of how he's reacted, i think it's absolutely wrong to say that he overreacted. he reacted appropriately, aggressively as was necessary. now, whether it's overstretched the limits here, you know, i think that he certainly went to the edge with his use of the fed powers, but i think stayed within it. in terms of whether or not -- >> susie: the exit strategy. >> -- whether he can make exit at the appropriate time, i think that's true, but i think it's the wrong question. everybody's focused on exit. as we look back on this situation two years from now, the question we'll really be asking, not whether the fed exited at the appropriate time, but perhaps why the fed wasn't more stim lative today in goi

i think those hurt the economy. higher interest ralts, and we pay for a lot of that that we're talking about. i think all economists agree interest rates are as low as they go. the third is higher inflation. they dampen the normal recovery process. >> you think we're looking a bit better than we are now and maybe a year? >> normally we have 5% or 6% growth out of a recession. i think we're looking at 2%. >> your biggest concern is the five years out. you think we're not going to be a whole lot better off? >> look, when you're talking about $10 trillion of new borrows, that's like putting a milestone around the neck of the economy. >> i think we'll be berlt off in six months and a year. it's not until then that it will get easier to look for a job than now. the unemployment is still going to be very tough. i worry about the longer term, because coming out of this, the credit bubbles collapse, taxes seem like they have to go up aloy. how are we going to react to that? we're going to live in a very different world going

we are not going to get 7% growth in the economy today. od thing is we have two billion new consumers throughout the world than we had in the '80ss, because of china, brazil, et cetera. bernanke is the right guy. let's not confuse the two decades because we are a different world today. >> he was able to cut interest rates just because ronald reagan was cutting taxes? is that the difference here? >> he had evidence that inflation's back had been broken that the recession drained the expectation. he could take 2 1* 1% interest rate -- take the 11% interest rates and bring them down to 7. there was a 10% savings rate with the consumer ready to explode. two, we were underleveraged as an economy. we now have a zero percent savings rate. we have $1.20 debt for every dollar and baby boomers were 30 years younger then. we were about to have babies, spend money. >> don't remind us. >> now, we are on the other side of that. biggish. >> pat, are we going to see any kind of recovery as we did then under regan? >> we goin are going to see a recovery. it

the federal reserve delivers an upbeat assessment of the u.s. economy. >>> escape plan. a pennsylvania shoplifter gives a store employee an eye full of mace. >>> and president obama ards the nation's highest civilian honor to 16 distinguished the nation's highest civilian honor to 16 distinguished recipients. captions paid for by nbc-universal television >>> hello and good morning. i'm christina brownment today we begin with leveling out. those were the welcomed words that spoke volumes to both wall street and main street wednesday when federal reserve chairman ben bernanke declared the u.s. economy is finally on the mend. nbc's michelle franzen has the story. >> reporter: the federal reserve left interest rates unchanged wednesday. a sign that central bank believes the u.s. economic activity is leveling out. key factors the recession may have hit bottom include median home prices up 4% last quarter, a surge in the stock market, and growing stability in the financial sectors. the committee says it expects inflation will remain subdued, but the optimism is guarded. the fed

the economy has been improving. w much credit because there is talk about what the president inherited in terms of issues economically, how much credit can this administration take and how much should it take for the recovery we've seen thus far? susan i'll start with you. >> the political reality is administrations wear the economy bad or good. whether they have all that much to do with it, you know, sometimes obviously private business has an awful lot to do with it, too. the economy needs to get moving again. i think some of the stimulus bill is starting to get in there and start to work. the point is i think a lot of people are looking at it and saying there was a lot more money in that stimulus bill that could have been better spent on infrastructure or jobs or given back to the taxpayer. he can take credit but not too much because bills are due before the next midterm election. >> donna, how much credit can the president take? >> it is too early for anyone to take a victory lap because too many americans are hu

very interestedn what you d to say abo the economy. thk you so much. >>hank you. >> susie: my est night robert mcteer of the nional nter for policy analys and former president of t federal rerve bank of llas. >> paul: the fed chief's optism combined with good news on houng to send stocks to their highest lels this year. but as erika millereports, onomic optimism isn't the on reasonany on wall street are in a buying mood. >> reporter: wilprints... brig orange... and plaids. inresting clothing picks are obably what come to mind when you hear the term "sho interest it's also a widely wched measure market psychology. overhe past few weeks, short interest has decned sharply, suggesting more bears e being scared ay. that's just one of many asons stratest mike ryan thinks stocks wilhead higher. obviously, the more short interest the is, the more cash there is on the sideline the more support for the mart the is. as the mket continues to grind higher, you coinue to se shorts getting squzed out. >> reporter: t market has surged more than0% since the march 9 lows

the german economy. eeing is huge capacity at this stage, so even if exports are performing somewhat better, we don't see a big investment coming up, you know, in the near future, so it's going to be a long process until this recovery is going to be sustained. and that's what we're trying to caution everybody not to believe too early that we're already on a sustained -- >> axle, thanks so much for joining us. axle weber, president of the bank. thank you. >> that is it for "the call" today. >> mandy, it's been a pleasure this week. i'm on vacation next week, so i'll see everyone in a week's time. i'm trish regan. "power lunch" is up next. >> have a good time, trish. some people buy a car based on the deal they get. others by the car of their dreams. during the lexus golden opportunity sales event, you can do both. special lease offers now available on the 2009 is 250. but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes place

you talked about the global economy. east of the middle east where 72% of the world's population sits, the markets are still vibrant. they still grow. the gdps are growing in almost all of those markets except japan which is still about flat. but 72% of the world's population, the markets are still growing. in latin america, mexico and south, the markets are still vibrant. so you've got a large portion of the world where the markets are still growing. and with the growth of those markets, our business is doing exceedingly well. so, you know, south america, east of the middle east, i feel very, very bullish about. let's now talk about western europe, eastern europe, and north america, which is the bloc that's facing the most amount of slow-down. i think those are the economies we have to watch very carefully to see what's going to trigger gdp growth to come back to positive territory. in spite of gdp growth being negative people still have to eat and drink. more importantly, people are cutting back, eating out in restauran

they want to see the economy recover first. chris: if he gets something small, by the end of the year, line a commitment for young people your age to join health care is that a commitment. is that a real principled change in our policy? >> absolutely. absolutely. that is a good thing, because it shows he was able to get something done when -- previous attempts have been made. chris: i think we agree on that one. do we agree something down the milingts middle that is not dramatic. >> absolutely. he needs to put his marker down. if he doesn't get the whole loaf, he needs to say i'm going after it and after it. chris: i know your a fan of pat moynihan. >> i remember him talking about how the clintons are crazy for not taking a step forward on health care. progress is the way we go toward goals we desire. and take that step forward and build on it. i think obama is smart enough to know that's the right thing to do if that's all he could get on health care by the end of the year. >> i think he needs to step up and say this is what i

>> defragilize the economy and definancialize it. io finance lower and lower the debt. >> sure. don't i definancialize the economy by creating rules on people on wall street to make money by investing? in other words, if i make money by speculating with your money and i keep the winnings and you take the losses that is the awesome game to play who is the richest and i can get richer that way but it's a delts mental to the economy. whereas, if i use wall street to drive the money of this country into our businesses that would seem to be beneficial to the economy. i feel like we've lost that. >> well, you just said that so well. the tricky part is how do you reorient your -- your question is how do you reorient wall street what it seemed to used to be versus the big casino it seems to be right now where they can lever up and take the gains and we take the losses. the problem is, i think, when government starts to make rules, generally, they make rules that unintended consequences are worse. one thing that -- i think a step in that direc

if the economy is slowly improving, spend a lot of money. i'm trying to figure out where there is a time in the history of our nation, recessions, depressions, boom times, bad times where nancy wouldn't say spend billions of dollars. it sounds like anytime is a good time. >> the bush tax cuts came whether we had good times or bad and we had a huge deficit. this is for fiscal restraint down the road. >> what fiscal restraint? he has the biggest deficit in the history of mankind, for crying out loud. >> he saved this country from a crisis like the depression. >> which we have done. >> let's separate the acts that were taken in september and october, which i think his history will show kept us from melting down and then we had a tarp plan, which led to the point of not letting the stock market break down. my problem is that the free market now has a chance to take a hold and we're hitting the bottom of the housing market because free market people are going into to buy. all the obama plans didn't work. >> look at cash for clunkers alone. >> we'r

>> we'll talk about the economy. ayors of new york and newark, bloomberg and booker, to talk about the economy's impact on some of the major cities around america, from what they're seeing and the overall obama agenda. we'll talk about foreign policy. for the first time the national security adviser general james jones talking about the backstory, how these two journalists, euna lee and laura ling got freed from north korea, the bill clinton diplomacy and where the administration goes next with the north korea. >> so many big stories in the past week. we look forward to watching you wrap them up. see you sunday. david gregory in washington. join david on "meet the press." check your local times for listings. >>> the employment report about to be released. we'll get the numbers live from the labor department in about -- becky? >> seven minute. >> seven minutes. very good. kkkkcccc 123450. >>> check out shares of aig called higher once again. well above estimate of $1.67. the stock's already jumped about 75% over the

the postal service matters to our economy. it is the essential to a $900 billion milling industry that employs 9 million americans. what we are talking about a fax from more than just the employees who are working at the local post office or distribution center. it affects 9 million americans working in fields as diverse as paper manufacturing, printing, publishing, direct mail, and financial services. indicative of that is one of our witnesses today, the chairman of a paper company that has a large plant in maine. @@@@@@@@@ @ @ @ @ h@ @ @ @ @ @ are links to the postal service. the postal service work to resort to excessive rate hikes or decrease delivery service, it has ramifications for all of these companies. they may have to respond with layoffs, increased prices to consumers, or reduced services. any of these adjustments would contribute to an even more perilous condition for the postal service. why? because when businesses cut their costs, they reduce mailing costs, and that leads to a further erosion of the postal servic

and i think what we're seeing in the economy now is the inherent resilience of the american economy and the american people and while those -- while those numbers are encouraging, what we ought to be doing is pursuing the broad-based prescription for recovery and stimulating this economy which has always worked, which is fiscal discipline in washington, d.c. and tax relief for working families, small businesses and family farms. >> let's look at the stimulus bill which you voted against. the democratic national committee, as you know, is running a radio ad in indiana in which they note that the stimulus package is funding public works projects across the state and in your home district. let's listen. >> these projects are creating and saving jobs and boosting our economy. so when you see that sign that says this project funded by the american recovery and reinvestment act, you can say no thanks to mike pence. >> congressman, no thanks to mike pence. >> well, let me say indiana's lost 20,000 jobs since the so-called stimulus bill was passed. >> but nobody -- excuse me. nobody said that t

some in the camp said the economy will grow and always grows. along the lines i saw as the kicker of brian westbury's book there, capitalism will rebound and take over if the government gets out of the way. on the other hand, all those who agree with mort zuckerman saying it could be until 2011 that the federal reserve remains near zero on interest rates. the other camp saying spring might be early but second half of 2010 might be a time for the fed to reverse course. what's clear from everybody by the time the economy turns around, it's too late for the fed to reverse course. >> right. >> a lot of talk the strategy has to be ready, the fed has to have its finger just above the button to push on excess reserves and raise interest rates. even before we're anywhere near full employment. >> is that going to be tough? will the fed take the punch bowl away when we still have bad employment numbers. >> congress already front page story of the "new york times" says they don't like ben bernanke as it is. >> it would be a real tragedy, in my judgment, if

about the prospects of the economy going forward. so the markets are looking for signs, whether the recovery is going to be as anemic as we think it's going to be or it's going to be stronger. from that viewpoint, this report is extremely important. >> what's your thought on that, maxwell? >> well, i mean, i feel like i should take less and less stock in the unemployment rate right now because i think the biggest catalyst for upward pressure in the unemployment rate are people re-entering the workforce. even as we see job declines desemester rating, we're going to continue to see the unemployment rate push higher. even if, for example, we saw the off chance that we have actually positive gains this year, at least in one month, i still think we could see the unemployment rate pushing heighter even into year-end. and i don't necessarily see that as a pullish sign, but if it's stemming mostly from the fact of people re-entering the workforce, that's not necessarily a bad thing. throughout this -- throughout all these the declines, for mu

but is that really what it will take to get the economy moving? you know, i think, quite frankly, most americans know the way to get the economy back on its feet is for us to put or fiscal house in order here in washington, d.c., and to give working families and small businesses more of their money to spend. >> chris: where do you think your party is right now in the battle for public opinion versus president obama and the democrats? >> well, i think republicans are starting to earn back the confidence of the american people. that we squandered, really in the last ten years. i mean, let's be honest, we didn't just lose our majorities in 2006, we lost our way. i mean, the american people saw a republican party that walked away from its commitment to fiscal discipline, limited government, and reform. and, the american people walked away from us. we saw in the last republican administration you know, increased at the federal department of education, the medicare prescription drug entitlement and administration that ended up taking $700 billion in bad

entrepreneurs like these are the most powerful force in the economy. they drive change and they'll relentless push their businesses to innovate and connect. ase look to the future, they'll be there ahead of us, lights on, showing us the way forward. this is just the beginning of the reinvention of business. and while we're sure we don't know all the answers, we do know one thing for certain, we want to help. come see what the beginning looks like at openforum.com >>> next here on msnbc saturday, it's a big shot in the arm for the health care overhaul. where's the reform movement headed? >>> it's a big jump in the road for the cash for clunkers program. how could a billion dollars in cash go so quickly? >>> also ahead, faith and a father's fatal decision. a dad sent to the slammer for relying on the power of prayer. >>> and it's a homecoming celebration in the works for michael vick. could the ex-con still be a hometown hero? >>> a very good morning, everyone. i'm alex wit. 11:00 eastern, 8:00 a.m. pacific time, here's what's happening on msnbc saturday.

...forbusiness.com (laughter) >>> a snapshot on the economy. last hour, those new jobless figures we shared with you showed that employers are pulling back on layoffs a bit. but could this really mean the recession is finally winding down? can you make that leap. joining us to discuss more on this, u.s. labor secretary hi a hildasoliz. unemployment at 9.4%, a loss of 247,000 jobs in july. i feel like when we say that these reports are coming out, they kind of dread it because they just don't know what to expect, and they know the situation is not good. what is your reaction to these numbers? >> well, i think you're absolutely right. this is a very high number of people that are still unemployed, but you also have to recall when we inherited this recession, we came in with well over 700,000 people who had lost their jobs, now it's been almost cut in half, but that's still not good enough. the president and i are not satisfied with seeing one job lost. >> 19 consecutive months of job losses, in fact, 14.5 million people now out of work. for all o

one is where are we in the economy? as i said we are out of intensive care, things are getting better but they are not good and they are not going to be good for a long time. the history of recessions caused by financial crises are that the recovery is very painful and slow and despite the recent euphoria i see no reason why this one will be different. where beyond ben bernanke? this term is up in january 2010 and my bet is that the prison had to make a decision he would reappoint him. changing drivers when the road is still bumpy is risky, putting its own and would inevitably spard sculation in concern among our people linda's money from the rest of the world, the peop on whom we are depennt that obama was putting in his own person in order to have easier money, more inflation and weaker dollar. i don think the president's appointees would likely do that but people would thinkhat he was than that will cost him something and finally when all these decisions are made it is compared to hum? i think the president probably c