the improvement in the economy, once the economy gets back to a sustainable level of output, then the economy will grow at a lower, more sustainable pace beyond that. the recovery of revenues that one sees now, we will see those kinds of growth rate going forward every year. >> your projections do not account for a possibility of another deep recession coming up. is it fair to say the government has leslie way to simulate the economy due to its already high debt burden -- has less leeway to stimulate the economy due to its already high debt burden you are >> if that were to happen, there would be less ability to respond to economic challenges. that could be economic downturns, a natural crisis, international events. the more debt we have, the less ability congress has to do what it did in 2008 and 2009 and 2010, which was probably just to allow revenues to fall with the declining economy. but beyond that, to make specific changes in policy that cuts taxes a little further and raise spending to provide a short-term boost for goods and services. we started in 2007 with debt at 77% of gd

it is the overall measure of the health of an economy. do do that at a regional level, and we do do breakdowns by industry as well. we also do foreign trade statistics as well. so we are to the statistical system. there is a lot of data out there that we put into a consistent framework so he can be used in unison with one another so you can get a fuller picture of what is going on in the economy. is a publiclyte traded company based in florida. i work in washington. i have been a lifelong career journalist, most of that covering the financial economist and the economy. our mission is similar to what iian is describing. most of it has do with interest -- ther rates that are rate you might need to be on a bankrate,, you go to and we have been doing a for many years, and is why consumers and investors and borrowers come to our site as well as providing breaking news may be a little bit of a more long-term look at what some of these trends are and how they affect people, very much the kind of topics we are talking about here today. host: we a

at the lower end of the for example we see more of the diversified economy but in the middle, the economies that were more reliant on manufacturing including the automobile industry and we know again that is one of the areas significantly affected. >> host: let's look at the charge from the bea. chart from the bea. nevada the spending for the categories during what is known as the great recession. you can see in this chart the blue area of the timeframe that we are talking about the dark blue number here the drop was motor vehicle spending as you were just talking about gasoline and other energy to is this red line here furnishing and durable household equipment also dropping though not as sharply and food services and accommodations also dropping a bit but not as sharply. we specifically want to hear from the viewers this morning on your spending habits and how they changed during the recession and postrecession. postrecession. for minds are open to do that. we will go to joe calling from new jersey first on the line for him to pen this. good morning. turn down your tv and go ahead with yo

or does this leave the french economy? that signals that the president wants to maintain his economic policy. on -- offered a stability program. has beenh economy stagnant. there has been 0% growth. he is abandoning his deficit targets. the deficit of france will be higher than 4%. maintain his line. trouble as want any part of his government. this is a time when his popularity is at a record low. his popularity was at 17%. that is the lowest of any french president since world war ii. >> thank you very much. she is in from paris. hans nichols joins us now from berlin. he has more. what does this mean for the rest of europe? we would expect that merkel would welcome this coming down those. >> she is not changed her austerity position one bit. this is more of a german and italian story as much as it is a french story. what is germany's reaction going to be? are breaking their stability compacts. we will see with italy comes into. we saw over the weekend in jackson hole that mario draghi is hinting for more fiscal stimulus. t

we're becoming a bellwether for the economy. o see berkshire hathaway today, because of the companies that have been acquired -- >> it is quite vast. 80 companiesor under that umbrella. many of them are tied to the u.s. economy. good think of the rail raise. if people are buying more things, the railways will be shipping it. you have a lot of housing related businesses, a brick company, a paid company, you have real estate brokerage companies. when you look at berkshire in ty, it has a lot of leverage in the u.s. economy. >> there was a joke that warren the datacquired company just so he could have his own numbers. >> the one thing you keep hearing when i speak with berkshire investors is that this company has a lot of leverage on the u.s. economy. not just what happens in one quarter, because they tend to have long horizons. make is thatt they as the u.s. economy improves, business should improve as well. bottom-line is that warren buffett continues to add businesses. a year ago at this time they had just purchased half of heinz

the u.s. economy is growing at a faster pace than expected. the second quarter gross domestic product rose by 4% on an annualized basis. that's better than economists had predicted. it's also a strong bounceback from the first quarter when the economy shrank by 2.4%. the gdp is the broadest measure of the size and strength of the economy. the marketed tumbled most of the week in part over concerns that the federal reserve would be raising interest rates faster than expected because the economy is strengthening. stacks had their worst day since april on thursday the dow falling more than 300 points dropping to a two-month low. stocks continued to fall on friday. earnings were mixed this week. u.p.s. beat expectations but they lowered it's outlook because they said they would be spending more on some of its infrastructure. american express came in ahead as did exxonmobil. twitter beat by a landslide. linked in and electric carmaker tesla came in ahead of expectations as well. >>> volatility returns to the market with a vengeance. the economy sees

those settle while the economy to redistribute that is the lifeblood of the economy is the essential role which is why all high functioning economies have governments which do that. here is one way to think that there are 205 countries on earth have a simultaneous experiment and 50 or 20 are working and you can name those countries. united states and canada and austria and germany and so forth they have high rates of progressive taxation and high amounts of regulation every place on earth where you don't have that you have a hell hole poverty-stricken because these are required for a capitalist economy. with redistribution is an important part of that. with respect to the book i of 500 pages into it and i've not finish but thomas has made the great achievement bridal believe it is economic or historical in the sense he has gathered the best set of data and the world has had about the accumulation of wealth and what he can show is a concentration of wealth is inevitable part of a market system. he misidentifies the causes which is the rate of return and the simple fact is the economy i

the economy may be doing better. don't tell that to the 18 million households that have trouble putting food on the table. we'll show you how busy food banks are in the country's biggest city. >>> americas's food industry employees many. the industry say they need hundreds of thousands of servers, bartenders, cooks and greeters. competition is growing. we have a report on why the shortage is growing and how some position themselves to increase earnings. >> reporter: when this restaurant needs more staff, they turn to this woman. in charge of getting graduates jobs. when they call you what do they say? >> "send me bodies, send me people." >> reporter: she is poised in one of the best job markets for managers, servers, greeters and cooks, in years. government figures show as of may 2014 there are 660,000 openings in the food service industry. that is more than 200,000 job increase over the same time last year. more than half of those openings are from line cooks and servers. >> tell me if you need gig. >> reporter: the

but americans should feel confident about the economy, he says. first, you have heard him four years on the radio. to know the full story about the diamond d in the rough who becae a is missed gem? tovis creditsts his history facing down any obstacles. this week, we go one-on-one with ronnie mervis to talk about how he makes his business shine. welcome to washington business report, thank you for joining us. you come from an iconic voice in the washington market. tell us by your family background. >> i family has been in the jewelry business in south africa since the early 1930's. as kids, we grew up in the business. knowing all about it. somehow, this was in our blood. there is one thing that every rvis child knows about and that is damaged. i think it comes out to the mother's milk candidates in their somehow. it is a natural sequiturs that somehow you will be in the tenantnt business. >> who stard the family business? >> the original was my father, who has passed on. he started it in 1975. father was in north -- an orphan. his parents had died w

the economy may be doing better. don't tell that to the 18 million households that have trouble putting food on the table. we'll show you how busy food banks are in the country's biggest city. >> an american tonight investigative report >> i never would have thought this would happen to us >> athletes going for the gold >> i've had a lot of people ask me... why didn't you scream?... why didn't you yell?...kick... why didn't you go tell your mom? >> betrayed by those they believed in the most >> there's bad people out there in youth sports >> could this happen to your child? >> my sole purpose in coming forward, is to help change the culture of sports >> an america tonight investigative report only on al jazeera america >>> americas's food industry employees many. the industry say they need hundreds of thousands of servers, bartenders, cooks and greeters. competition is growing. we have a report on why the shortage is growing and how some earnings. >> reporter: when this restaurant needs more staff, they turn to this w

we are not sure what the economy is going to do. that does spell problems for the chinese economy. ching thatms 7.5% growth target. the likely thing that is likely to happen after that is we will see more stimulus from the chinese government. >> david tweed joining us from hong kong. let's turn our attention to the unrest in the middle east. defense iron dome system has protected most of the residents living near the border with gaza. local companies don't seem to have stayed quite so safe. >> around 32 hundred rockets were fired out of the gaza strip over the past five weeks. with residents of southern israel often the attended targets. system mayme defense protect most people here, but the impact of this aerial assault is damaging for local business. >> it is not easy. >> and israeli-american father of three lives a 10 second rocket flight from the gaza strip in a village where his employer was founded. he had just returned to the main plant where his colleagues had been struggling to fulfill the daily quilt quota. >> you do 50 or 60. you don't work as quickly. five or six times a

that is good for the global economy. the whole economy is about exports. in england, the bank of england officials are split on the interest rate increases. i would also argue that is wrong, given there are several members of the board of governors. on airplanes today. michael mckee is on an airplane today. jackson hole -- they will argue about all of that there. >> it looks like not a lot will change out of jackson hole, but everybody is talking about the future of monetary policy. we get the weekly mortgage numbers. up down, up down, up down. the fed releases minutes from the june meeting. >> several. some. [laughter] >> words, syllables. we will try to glean what they are going to do. >> we suggest it. >> we suggest. [laughter] it will be an intellectual exercise for all of us. fed watchers. of any come out? -- have any come out? >> $5.2 billion for the second girders -- quarter. the other one that has just come out is lowe's. the second-biggest home-improvement retailer. profit beat analyst estimates. forecast isr sales up 4.5% versus the consensus of 5

the economy has seen no growth yet this year. some socialist politicians are blaming austerity measures demanded by the eu and championed by germany for making the situation worse. any economies argue france has dug itself into an economical. >> that is what economists say. we got this report from the frankfurt stock exchange. >> france is the most serious problem in the eurozone. that is the concern here. france has to become more competitive and productive and cut back the part the state lays in the nation's economy. whether a new government will be able to do that anytime soon while people are quite pessimistic on the frankfurt floor that that will happen. still, the share prices in frankfurt went up quite clearly. they hope the european central bank will act to prop up the european economy. remarks by mario draghi are being interpreted to that respect. >> in frankfurt, we can stay there for a closer look at the numbers. the dax finished the day up as did the euro stoxx, gaining more than 2%. in new york, traders are still on t

we will also talk about the spanish economy. el is delivering a press conference from spain, from the north of spain. that is due this morning. some further analysis of the jackson hole conference. michael o'sullivan will be joining us to talk about assets in the wake of that conference. you can follow me on twitter. ♪ >> con acquits. the french government resigns after a rift over economic policy. we are live in paris. a second aid mission. another convoy of trucks is going to ukraine this week. you're looking at live pictures. taking the temperature of germany's economy. good morning to our viewers in europe. welcome to those just waking up in the unist

the british economy is growing faster than its continental neighbours. germany, the biggest economy in europe, has been the engine of growth. many wonder if the u.k. will one day overshadow it. >> reporter: it's gone from lagered to leader. the u.k.'s economy is growing has it european neighbours stall. the g.d.p. was 3.2% higher in the second quarter compared to a year ago. that was the best performance in more than six years. unemployment rates have dropped to 6.4% from a high of 8.4%. but the u.k.'s recovering has been slower than germany and trans. the financial crisis took a heavy toll, shringing by 7%. >> we didn't see growth until two years ago. since then the u.k. grew rapidly. it's beyond germany in terms of growth since the start of the financial crisis. >> among the factors credited for fuelling growth in the u.k. are cheap money, a booming housing market and a weaker currency that helps u.k. exports stay competitive. growth is weak, and a slowdown poses a threat to the u.k., since it exports goods to the eurozone. growth is expected to continu

the puzzle of a strong economy and weak inflation is at the heart of it.e hadn't seen that before. with the u.s. lending picking up, the economy picking up, the u.s. will be the first to go. yellen is in charge, she is dovish, this is a 2015 story. >> is she in charge? you hear the likes of fisher, making a lot of noise. is his community starting to yellen, at theet core of the dovish camp and the one holding it together right now? is seven to in the u.k., i don't know the score in the u.s., but it is close to the middle. i think our interpretation is rates are on hold. "ifs," and "butts," he compares it to going out verge shooting, but you have to shoot at the front of the flight path get your target. are they going to go to early. -- early? a risk.is always i would say the underlying economy looks strong enough. ist she is talking about wage inflation. she is keen to see signs of wage inflation. or the population earning some decent money in real terms. a 2015 why it seems like story for hiking rates. sees as bad in the u.s., she must really feel bad. su

what does this say about the state of the china economy here? actually saying things are not about to collapse at all, but at the same time, they are not going to have any big bang stimulus. and this has created a lending spree that is still going on to this day. this is what the central bank is noting in this latest report. does this compare with previous statements by the pboc? not as strong.is for example, this past november, the pboc had a report that there will be a long-term deleveraging of the chinese economy. do that, not really and we have not seen that phrase since then. even though they are talking about the risks from credit growth, that they are not going to have any the stimulus, they are not quite ready yet to see the economy deleverage. >> so what are the biggest risks that you say would be a challenge to the china economy and the financial system? wouldt people you talk to say that real estate is the biggest risk in china's economy right now. you are already seeing some parts of its slow down. price increases are slowing or falli

going back to the maker of the economy we've created together i can't echo in view of what director reiskinaid we're creating a model around infrastructure and how to connect with the diverse populations back which murray's and honestly setting a model that other cities are looking to reenergize allergies and aspire inspire folks that a construction job as well as a expire to work and accurate things in tim buck too that brought folks from chinatown and will have direct access for their workers to get to work that we are remilking for the next generation to be a maker at sf we're proud to be on on the forefront i want to credit mayor ed lee and the folks of san francisco mayor ed lee is an official maker mayor, we saw for the first time the white house hosting a maker fair. so the spotlight is on us we have the national alliance and san francisco is a co-founder of that organization so let's show the rest of the country what is the possible by modeling here in san francisco keep up the great work (clapping.) thank you very much kate. congratulations to you on the success of san francisco th

our topic, the economy improving. u may want to add your perspective into the numbers that best represent our view on the social media channels. you were the president on the topic of the economy. the republican response was delivered by the congressional committee chairman. he talked about the economy and issues of it during the weekly republican address. [video clip] the governments spends rather than saves and believes that change comes from a desk in washington, not itching towners like this one. republicans have looked to do things differently. we have looked to rein in big government. the house has passed over 40 jobs bills, but the president and his party refuse to give them a hearing. especially when the economy leaves people behind, a debt bigger than the size of the economy, a humanitarian crisis on the southern border, the irs targeting americans for their political blue -- political beliefs, and rolling disaster of obamacare. the president is disengaged when he should be leading. thempting to manage bureauc

>> i think we have taken up a lot of slack in the economy. ou look at surveys, their average response on the issue are the highest they have had in the history of their survey. market,ook at the labor unemployment has come down from 8.5% to around 6.5%. if it keeps going at that rate, in 18 months time we will have close to the lowest level of unemployment since the 1970's. to mpc is paid anticipate conditions. it is important they anticipate because we are starting at such a low level of interest rates. if they don't anticipate, they will have to push rates up more sharply than the what would be ideal. >> are you worried we are dealing with a legacy from 2008 4 we have a substantial amount u.k.eople in the that people are on a floating mortgage and they will not be able to be able to absorb a 50 basis point hike? >> people have had five or six years to adjust their finances. up economy is not just made of borrowers. it is made up of savers. savers have put up with low rates for that time. if we run the economy based on a small subset of the p

this is one of the strengths of the german economy. a discussion with the politics and society because this is a special kind of production and too many people think services could help better. we are convinced industry is quite a strong factor for the german economy. >> an industry-based, not a service-based economy. >> yes. the success of the german economy at the moment in comparison to other nations. >> give me a sense of how -- you said there is concern here. try to quantify that for me. there is a great deal of enthusiasm say in 2013. what is it like now? >> we had the euphoria last year and the first quarter of this year and now there is uncertainty about the future. there is the international situation, but there is also the decisions the national government in berlin took concerning also the enterprises. this is the right to have -- get a pension at the age of 63 for the people instead of 65. >> you want to see them work until 65? >> yeah. we have the situation where people need specialists in the companies and we have 100,000

the result millions of 20 somethings, and during the economy immediately cash strapped after graduation, unable to spend money on much else, other are than student loans. hilton smith calls it a debt for diploma system. >> the students who are paying $300 or $500 towards reducing debt is $300 to $500 that they could spend on a down-payment of a house or a new car or other things that would recirculate in the economy. >> the rules made it difficult to forgive student debt. when it defaults, it set off a vicious cycle. savings. >> this person saw going into default first hand. after earning a bachelors in journalism and a masters in international relations, she red. >> i ignored it. it was a big mistake. >> when she decided to face reality she was faced with an ugly truth. >> i signed into my account and it was 92,000. >> it caused upheaval. she got a job. how do i get the 7 to a 6. it was a game. >> she is carrying a 20,000 debt, but at the expense of not doing anything else. storeys likes this weigh heavily on the high school seniors. >> i'm scared for my father. i hardly see him now. t

but the fact is the economy is doing okay. but it isn't doing fantastic. >> host: is there a specific effort by the whitehouse you can point to that would lead to the current economics improving? >> guest: the president should get credit for attempting. and the fed was an ally. they had a republican chairman appointed by bush and here he is making the democratic case and the republicans said look at the debt and the deficit and he would say the deficit might be a problem in the long term butt in the short term don't cut spending too quickly because you will ruin the economy i'm trying to help out. so as a republican, he gets the credit for the push back. if the democrats are that dissatisfied where is the political rallying cry and the activism and the effort to win the senate in the midterm. >> host: joe in north carolina. independent line. >> caller: i was wondering. i listen to you and you said we have added ten million new jobs. put when the crisis hit you lost 12 million so you are still 2 million behind. as far as the gov

that's creating opportunity across the economy. the government said today employment and leisure and hospitality headed 375,000 jobs so far this year, primarily in food services and drinking places. and here in maryland, the state is cashing in on casino jobs. the number of workers is expected to triple to just over 9,000 jobs in the next two years. mgm resort is building a billion-dollar casino southeast of washington dc. the doors won't open for two years, but they are already recruiting to field nearly 4,000 jobs. >> i think it's honestly an opportunity of a lifetime to open a brand-new facility that will be beautiful. mostly i'm here to find out exactly what they are looking for and the opportunities they have. >> reporter: at the white house, president obama called it good news. >> so the good news is the economy is clearly getting stronger. things are getting better. our engines are revving a little bit louder, and the decisions we make right now can sustain and keep that growth and momentum going. >> reporter: the steady jobs

the economy is in good shape. you're right, the market now is going to kind of take out the timing of the fed moving sooner. but we get a stronger employment report next month. then it changes again. >> you said the fed's offside, you agree with fisher, it should be raising rates faster than -- >> yeah. the monetary policy is miscalibrated. they've taken the responsibility away from the fiscal sector by keeping rates low. you can't get structurally unemployed people back into the workforce by putting policy low. i'm a minority voice. richard fisher is a minority fisher. if inflation continues to rise, even yellen will be forced to do something. >> why not take the numbers for what it is? they does it have to be about what the fed is going to do next? >> it doesn't have to be. you hit the nail on the head in the prior segment when you talked about going forward. the train's left the station when it comes to u.s. economic growth and job growth. we have to worry about six and 12 months down the line. not today, not to

we know the technology economy is the new economy. that is what i saw yesterday that come my eye. >> you wonder if the economy is showing signs of leveling out. we had manufacturing growth pace slow in july. that was according to manufacturing data. industrial production rose less than estimates. weekrong pound, by eurozone, it seems as if we are leveling out. >> we will know later. >> we get the forecast for growth and inflation -- >> and stock. stay with bloomberg because we will be discussing this throughout our programming in terms of carney's quarterly inflation report. he starts speaking at 10:30 london time and we will bring you that purport live. >> tipping point trains. tensions in eastern europe showing no signs of abating. willl geopolitics -- how geopolitics play out on the market? ♪ today's company news. alibaba is selling a small business, a company that already controls alipay. the moves show the company separating itself from its last financial units ahead of an ipo. that is expected next month. king digital lunch as m

the economy is slowing down. pressures are on. either you have discounts or you go for the renting option which is cheaper. if you don't want to pay but still want to dazzle on the big night, you can always rent. a new company is targeting china's huge passion for fashion. with higherstartup missions. i went to meet the cofounders. >> a celebrated model, unlikelyt banker, an trio to forge a business focusing on the fashion conscious. yet opposites attract. this fashion show is strutting its stuff. it is designed on a u.s. model. instead of spending the big bucks, you can hire the latest and best brands at a fraction of the price. flex tnt is the first of its kind in asia. the focus is china. while luxury sales are falling, the passion for fashion is not. that is the gap in the market. it is all down to social media. >> we have to leverage the social media. i get in touch with my friends and they are out and about using luxtnt. people are aware. we bring a lot of customer awareness through social media. media is a very large part of

and later, why the new post recession american economy doesn't feel like the old precrisis economy. look at the new normal and it means tonight. ah, got it. these wifi hotspots we get with our xfinity internet service are all over the place. hey you can stop looking. i found one. see? what do you think a wifi hotspot smells like? i'm thinking roast beef. want to get lunch? get the fastest wifi hotspots and more coverage on the go than any other provider. xfinity, the future of awesome. could help your business didavoid hours of delaynd test caused by slow internet from the phone company? that's enough time to record a memo. idea for sales giveaway. return a call. sign a contract. pick a tie. take a break with mr. duck. practice up for the business trip. fly to florida. win an award. close a deal. hire an intern. and still have time to spare. go to comcastbusiness.com/ checkyourspeed if we can't offer faster speeds - or save you money - we'll give you $150. comcast business. built for business. >>> okay. i want to continue the discussion on today's u.s./africa summit. nearly 50 africa

the state of the nation's economy, not people's personal finances, but the state of the nation's economy does play a fundamental role. if he did not know anything else and he had the bed which party was hard to win a presidential election in the united states and you could know the change in the growth rate in the six months prior to the election he could do pretty well at predicting. he would be like 75 percent of the time. i fully admit that a monkey flipping a coin could be right 50 percent of the time. the we're going to do better than that. we will be right 75 percent of the time. the economy is always important problem. in 2008 challengers who are not responsible for global financial crises will do very well. it does not always happen. there are some cases where the people who are not predicted to win, round and win the elections. but those elections are always very, very close, the closest and our nation's history. and that is actually quite hard to do. romney had his work cut out for him from the start. >> host: how do we view our president when we go into the booth? >> guest: ok

. >> and subprime trouble, is a bubble brewing in one of the hottest segments of the economy? we'll have that and more tonight for wednesday, august 20th. >>> good evening, everyone, and welcome. thanks for joining us. great rate debate intensified today. some of the most powerful people in monetary policy gathered in the small and beautiful town of jackson hole, wyoming. this afternoon, the minutes of the federal reserve's last meeting were released in washington showing that some officials think the economy is getting better quicker, so much so that the central bank will need to hike rates sooner than planned. the initial reaction in the stock market was one of concern, and stocks shed some of the gains for a short time before they resumed their august asent. in the meantime, a cnbc survey shows wall street thinks the next round of interest rate hikes, wherever they begin will be so gradual and so prolonged they won't end until the next president is in the oval office for nearly a year. steve liesman is in jackson hole where federal reserve chair janet yellen will speak on fr

only two ways to organize the economy. private enterprise or the government or some combination in between what the economists were given, an institution that we rely on, list of millions of people every day in the entire array of goods and services that are not provided by the government and are beyond the profit motive. we call this the social comment on the civil society. involved in education, health care services, assisted living for the elderly, day care centers and the economists don't pay much attention to this sector, but it is a huge sector 2 trillion in revenue in 40 countries surveyed. it is growing faster than the private marketplace. and then the u.s., canada, and the u.k., already over five and a half% of the gdp. it is growing while the traditional private enterprise market is shriveling. it is quite interesting. what i think we are seeing is the emergence of a collaborative , and in the social economy. the trigger for that is as zero marginal cost infrastructure because it is like a soul mate. this is desig

this project is critically important to the future of transportation therefore the future of our economy and city and making great progress we've completed the tuning $255 million contract the project got done ahead of schedule and created jobs behind us the mucus station which will connect to the muscone conference center that will be expanding but most critically making the corrections this central subway for the light rail the first phase in completed in 2007 that resorted san francisco after a 50 year hiatus the central subway will be 50 blocks south of here connecting southeast of the city to the most illegally populated neighborhoods in the united states the day the subway opens for obispo that will be a busy day with the right planning and the right leadership what we can make investments that help our cities and our economy but in the meantime, we're going to put people to work that will inspire fire chief generation i want to acknowledge my board they make the budget and contracts we've got a great chairman tom nolan and others that have joined us they're working hard everyday e

it isn't restricted to the supplies we have a vibrant economy and these are the needs of the marketplace. we have a stagnant economy. you don't create it, so it is very, very basic. when people lose sight of that, when you end up with what we had in 71 from one crisis to another we had a terrible decade of the 70s. we got it right in the 70s and 90s and we moved ahead. but in the last decade, we went backwards and a starting in this partisan thing it started under the bush administration and the treasury department, federal reserve started to weaken the dollar to stimulate exports and that's how we got the housing bubble. anytime you undermine the integrity of the dollar, the dollar, people go onto the hard assets. from the mid-1980s to the last decade the price of a barrel of oil was a little over $21 million a barrel. what is it a? eighty, 90, 100? the middle east crisis may not get up to 110. back in the 70s -- none of you are old enough to get under the 70s. [laughter] it's called pandering. [laughter] tried it in politics. didn't work which is why i am peddling books right now. [lau

as you noted, if the economy is weaker than interest rates may stay low for a longer both because the federal reserve may react by holding rates lower but also because financial market would seat with a weaker economy less demand for laonable funds. for a time. that reduction of interest rates by itself would be good news for the budget because the federal government is a large debtor and makes substantial interest payments. effect of therect weaker economy on tax receipts are likely that way than the effect on lower interest rates but it would depend on just how interest rates responded to other changes in the economy so it's hard to give a clear and specific answer. in our february outlook, we offered rules of thumb for changes in key economic variables and their effects on the budget. in that report, we looked at the effect of lower growth in different interest rates separately. we did that separately because it is hard to know how much interest rates would go down in response to weak economic news and it would depend crucially on how market participants judged the weakness in the

the money economy is the symbol economy, symbol of products and services. keynes reversed that and said money is the real driver of the economy and it is the production of products and services that respond to the moon. so we reverse it, put the cart before the horse. so they got up with the idea that if you print of money that can stimulate the economy. it will certainly stimulate activity but all it does is go into activities that normally would not happen, like the oil boom we've had in the last 10 years. the oil from the had in the '70s. a housing bubble that we had. we had a housing surge in the '70s. that the catastrophism because the government wasn't quite as involved in it. but it's like putting the virus in the computer. you get activity but it's false activity. in the 1980s you had energy go through a depression, agriculture went through depression, commercial real estate went through a huge hit. we grew in the '80s but a lot of activities that thrive under false in funny money had to be liquidated in the '80s. you saw it in housing today. and who

if you look at the u.s. economy almost the perfect position where jobs can continue to grow but the unemployment rate has not picked up. janet yellen, the chair of the federal reserve, she's going to mid-2015 whilel there are strong jobs growth in the u.s. this picture is very supportive of the equities. >> when you see the likes of might, their rates of rise faster and in market is behind. do you dismiss that as moist coming out of the fed? >> we have a lot of concern around their earlier last week and that cost the selloff. the payrolls we saw on friday sure really assay those fears. the participation rate picked up. unemployment increase. it is supportive of janet as the economy recover, people will start to rejoin the labor force. said members are talking about it. >> kiran, let's talk about overweight credit. we are talking by u.s. high-yield and stocks. last week, that is where the softness was. beennet yellen has questioning some of the valuations in the high-yield space. do you continue to hold that view? >>

the u.s. economy grew. it rose by 4% and also a strong bounce back for the first quarter when the economy shrank. the gdp is the broadest measure ft osize and strength of the economy. the markets tumbled at least in part. the dow falling more than 300 points dropping to a two-month low. stocks continue to fall on friday. earnings were mixed this week. ups beat expectations but the company lowered outlook because it said it would be spending more on some infrastructure. american express came in ahead of predictions. twitter beat by a landslide. linked in and tesla came in ahead of expectations. >>> volatility returns to the markets with avengeance. what does it mean for your money. joining us dan greenhaus and heidi moore, finance and editor at "the guardian". it was stunning to watch what happened at the jobs report and the market's immediate reaction to it because people had been gloomy and doomy. this number came in below expectations. >> it says something about how far we have come that a 210,000 jobs rep

over the weekend, the economy minister gave some strong comments saying that what the president was doingas rating .he economy erie they are forming a new government. it is a way to get rid of the economy minister. >> he played a big spoiler role in the general electric purchase. him isquestion about good cop bad cop. did they get a better deal from ge when they bought the energy assets? they got a good deal. they got job guarantees for 2000 people. they got a good deal from ge. counterbid.sed this they extracted concessions from ge. ge got a lot of good out of this. irony is that was exactly what mario draghi said europe should be doing. is that how difficult it is to do that? >> as long as merkel sticks with of structural rules, you are in a bind. i will give you another analogy. in 2010, obama is calling for more stimulus. republicans are say no more spending. and everybody else in europe including mario draghi says you need to stimulate aggregate the manned. you need to get german consumers to spend more. maybe she had a change of heart because the gdp figure was so bad last week. may

when we look at the u.s. economyn though there is some volatility in the data, we are seeing fundamentally for several months is a recovery that is beginning to look increasingly sustainable. it is coming through on housing. there is a housing recovery coming through. less fiscal austerity which is a big lift. also, most importantly, we are beginning to see signs of improvement in business investment. i think that is the driving point. show us wepposed to are seeing an investment cycle getting underway. >> of that is our belief. we see evidence when we look at the survey data so that is beginning to come through. that is one of the coins the continues to falter in many of the euro area economy's. interestinge debates was the wages and the number of central bankers. where is the visible hand? one of thethis is new ideas that is coming up. governorasically that corona told us that after a very prolonged. inflation that people do not get wage gains anymore. is suggested this to say that wage formation needs to be invisi

you know, i could give you countless examples of how this resonates through the economy. another example is entreprene entrepreneursh entrepreneurship. small businesses created 60% of jobs. at what point to families close the pocket books. >> that's hard to say. they need the diploma. the nation needs it. if the united states is going to be competitive in the global economy, we need a well-educated workforce. maybe it's not when do families get tired of it, but we as a society realise that this is a problem that impacts all of us. >> patricia, marie, philip - thank you all very much. terrific conversation. >> thank you. >> thank up. >> my pleasure. >> that brings us to the end of this edition of "inside story". thanks for being with us. in washington, i'm ray suarez. next? with ebola on the move across new borders, what are countries, including the u.s., doing to stop it from spreading? at points of entry, and more porous borders, how can this deadly virus be contained? also tonight, paying the piper, and it's not enough. the privatization of probation aims to get more com

but the focus right now is very much what's happening in the u.s. economy. and unfortunately, it's been very uneven. of course, we did see a much better second quarter gdp. raising that up 0.2 to 2.4%. but that comes against the backdrop of a very steep decline at the start of the year. so investors right now are trying to figure out which one really tells the story, the health of the labor market and the economy in general. now, going forward, we've already seen that declining trend in consumption carries forward into the third quarter. and so i think a lot of investors are really trying to glean exactly where the improvement is going to come from if we do continue to gain ground in the second half. >> let me ask you this, paul. you probably heard president obama late this afternoon talking about the whole situation in russia. he was asked a question about whether he was going to take any more actions in terms of sanctions against russia. and he didn't really answer that question. but let's say come september that there is a step up in u.s. sanction against

now karl the u.s. economy shrank at a pace of two point nine percent in q one and i've asked a lot of our guests about this because it's a shot in the margin number for an expansion in what do you think is going on in new york in the u.s. economy. well i don't believe a lot of the numbers that i see so there is this seasonal adjustment factors that get put into some of the government reports are utterly comical so i tend to work off the unadjusted numbers because a lot harder edged them although even there you have to wonder whether the data collection is any good. i frankly was not terribly surprised to see that kind of a contraction but it does mean that the money printing games that have gone on and the credit pumping that has happened within both the u.s. congress and the federal reserve and let's not get this backwards either the fed is the puppet of the government not the other way around. what this is shown is that these policies have an end point where they stop working and we've reached that so now yo