the last decade or so. they are a smaller economy. china is only promising by 2030 to basically start curtailing, you know, carbon emission levels. but what level will they be at by then? >> surprise, surprise, they are cheating on the numbers. we knew they were cheating but not this much. why make a deal with somebody cheating on the numbers like this? >> listen. they are a big player. we need to continue to engage them and be diplomatic about this. we can't just walk away and not talk to them. it's important that we continue to engage them and go through diplomacy and continue to do that. >> mike, you think income redistribution is at the heart of this. for years the obama administration told us the ice is melting. there is actually more ice. they use it to increase regulation and taxes to funnel money to his friends who make solar panels and punish coal companies. >> a lot of deals have the idea of moving money from rich to poor countries. >> don't make the deals. let's chaer on china. here is a once desperately poor country that in

the economy is very well focus. they need to show american voters how they will grow the american economy. the stakes are high. we will get answers. joining me today with a preview is our all-star lineup. one-time front-runner herman came, karl rove and an all-star team from fox business. the economy again front and center. the issue on tomorrow's big debate. we have lou dobbs that has a special report tonight ahead of the big debate. we have maria bartiromo. the 7:00 p.m. event along with sandra smith. maria, given the news and jobs in the economy, what do you think that we will here? how do you think they will distinguish themselves? >> the biggest untapped secret is that the fox business network will stay on the issue. job creation, wages. job creation 40% of the american working age americans without a job. they have stopped looking. they have given up. trade issues. there are a number of economic issues that matter to the american public that we will get into. i suspect the candidates will be about more forthcom

there really is a disconnect between the market and the economy. i think, if you look at the market over the last, say, five years, this market has been one of the best bull markets of all time. i don't think you would say the same thing about the economy right now. that this is one of greatest economies of all time there is a massive disconnect because of the fed and the easy money out there that there aren't cops to put money into somewhere else. you don't have a place to put money other than the u.s. market. and that's the reason for the roaring stock market, not the underlying fundamentals of the. >> good point. lisa, we talk about big numbers. billions, trillions over the years. trillions and trillions and trillions. what does it really mean to me? your eyes can glaze over when you this see. to the average person out there, what does this debt deal mean to us? >> when your debt-to-gdp ratio gets too high, it slows down economic growth. what that can mean for middle-class families and families across the country are higher interest rates. if you

the u.s. economy is performing well in a new normal sense. this is on the u.s. economy precrisis years. that economy was ultimately unsustainable. is performing reasonably well. we see them growing in the high twos over our forecast horizon. that is one of the reasons we see our economy continuing to progress. i am quite confident they will make the right decision at the right time. i made a point in the press conference today. i think the fed has been as transparent as they can be about a decision they have not yet taken. >> does that feel familiar to you? >> it feels very familiar. the point i was trying to make earlier is it is familiar to all central bankers. >> janet yellen is not a bad girlfriend? [laughter] >> we are all reliable as we can be given that we have to do with events as they come forward. when i say i am confident they will take the decisions necessary, it is because i have a reasonable understanding of the reaction function, how they will adjust monetary policy. >> in terms of your timing, does that play a role? i know it is good to play the p

the u.s. economy is performing quite well. this is not the u.s. economy of pre-crisis years. is performing reasonably well. marks: it is one of the reasons why we see our economy continue to progress. i think i made a point in the -- a conference, i think better decision that they have not yet taken. it feels very familiar to me. i was trying to make earlier, it is familiar to all central bankers. [laughter] >> when we are all reliable as we can be. when i say i am confident that they would take the decision that is necessary, it is because i have a reasonable understanding of their so-called reaction. how they will adjust monetary policy. timing -- we your don't need to worry about what is happening in america. , it does raises rates, it should make a difference. mark: what matters most to our timing, the u.s. monetary policy adjusts. that economy is continuing to grow above trend. there is inflation in that economy and it is appropriate to do so. i frequently remind people of at thisl one can look past history since we became -- two of the five times the bank moved before t

that is not the sense we have about the economy right now. so, absent any evidence that you want to the brakes, i don' t know why -- what the strong case would be for raising rates. i will tell you this, and this is something i don' t think is getting the degree of concern that it should. on average, about every seven years, we have had to cut interest rates by about 300 basis points to keep the economy stable. it has been seven years, that is sense this recovery began, we are entering the seventh year of recovery, so sooner or later that need will co me, and i' m gary: a candidate suggested that the fed was somehow working with the government to make certain that it was not going to be a recession until after the next president was in office. in fact, they were not doing anything in terms of interest rates and it was some sort of collusion. your thoughts on that are what? sec. summers: that is nonsense. it is not the first thing donald trump has said that was nonsense, it is not the last thing i suspect he will say fed is nonsense. the idea t

to grow the american economy? that is the most fundamental question we've got to answer. we're on the path to socialism right now. [ applause ] >> these are mutually exclusive. hour is late but not too late for america. under president obama, you asked about his economy, we've got record dependents, record number of americans on food stamps, record low participation rate in the workforce. this is a fundamental choice, sending a big republican government of d.c. is not enough to fix the problem. not enough just to beat hillary clinton. we've got to change the direction of our country. what that means is let's shrink the government not slow growth rate, but shrink the government to grow the american economy. that is the fundamental issue we should be debating here tonight. moderator: all right, governor jindal, thank you. governor christie, have you said that the democrats' message is one of, quote, free stuff. in contrast, republicans want to reduce spending. how do you win a national election when the democrats are

the economy the most important issue for americans deciding their vote according to the fox news pole. 38 percent i should say economy is the most important issue. which candidate fared best on money matters? political panel from the accountability project and columnist at city and state ny evans. thank you for joining us this morning. >> you have been here before. dÉjÀ vu. we have a lot more details this time in this debate. let's start with the winners and losers in terms of the economy. we said most important to viewers. who did that? >> as a democrat i have to say everybody on stage was pretty disas strouss from my perspective. there will be differences between democrats analysis and republican analysis. a shocker, i can't believe i am saying this, i think donald trump won on the economy. mostly because he's really standing for the middle class. he leads a progressive tax system. >> john kerry in 2004. >> maybe because he was hanging out with democrats for so long. >> even though he said he would not raise the minimum wage. to be fair i don't think anybody on stage beliefs in that

betty: let's talk about the economy. cently, the chinese government devalued the renminbi and the stock markets around the world reacted quite violently. is the president going to talk about the economy, and how would he describe the state of the chinese economy? mr. yang: during the course of the visit the two presidents will cover much ground. they will talk about the world economic situation, the regional economic developments, their respective economies and the economic policies. it is very important on the macro level that the two countries have more coordination of their policies. but let me point out that since the outbreak of the financial crisis seven years ago people have all worked very hard to revive the world economy. it is not as strong as people have expected, but that does not mean that we should not continue our good efforts, and china has done its part. we are no longer having double-digit growth rates. it's just like a high jumper, the higher you go, the more difficult to raise the level. on the other h

it's the economy, stupid. remember, that's the line made famous back in 1992. bill clinton's campaign used that line to make president george h bush seem out of touch on the everyday issues of everyday americans. today, it still seems true. it's the economy, stupid. our whotv iow6a state university poll found no other issue's more important to likely caucusgoers right now. but we wanted to dig deeper into the numbers. here's what we found. men seem more concerned about the economy than women. 28 percent of men picked the economy as their top issue about 18 percent of women did. something surprised us on the economy issue. that's when you look at people's views on it based on the amount of money they make. those making under 25,000...the poorest of the iowans sampled. they cited the economy as their top issue less than other income groups. 17 percent of iowans in that group picked the economy as their top issue. the income group that chose the economy the most...those are people who make between 25 and 50,000 do

the economy marked negative growth for a second quarter this year. the capital expenditure and household consumption seems really slow, really weak at the moment. growth marked in the household consumption is a little bit brighter spot for gdp numbers for this fiscal year. but i think that it is not fully recovered, fully retrieved, the negative growth mark, in second quarter of this year. i think the underlying trend of the domestic demand is still very weak. mainly caused by the weaker minimum wage growth. in terms of the corporate activities i think that the corporate sector's mindset have not recovered yet. and that's why the corporate sectors are still reluctant to spend their money into their corporate investment. >> so then what are you expecting going forward? we are already at the third quarter. what's next? >> what's next, i think that gdp numbers pick up into positive territories given the -- according to the data released recently. but i think that it's not enough to have the gdp numbers, full numbers of gdp, to pic up to the positive terr

the fed is trying to keep the economy going at a decent pace. if the fed were to raise rates sharply prematurely in an effort to get rates up, it would slow the economy up. the only way to get rates up in a sustainable way is to get the economy moving forward. eventually it will happen, i think. right now, the u.s. economy is growing pretty well. the rest of the world is slowing down. since we do trade and interact with the rest of the world, it has been a bit of a hit to us. gary: you said seven years ago that interest rates were going to be low for the next seven years. you would have expected commodities to be higher. you would think that the fed would be fighting massive inflation. why is that not happening? ben: we knew there was no risk of inflation. the fed is able to tighten monetary policy, raise interest rates at the appropriate time, and it will be the market completely believe that. the fact that the u.s. government can borrow for 30 years at 3% is basically saying that investors believe that inflation is going to be low for a long ti

the fundamentals are the u.s. economy uniquely. there is no new normal for the u.s. economy. the yield environment would have likely expected the financial prices even earlier than that. there is nothing to see here. that is unique to the u.s. muchlower price rates and lower yields. guy: the u.s. could be back in recession within two years. >> of course it could be. guy: when we look at what is happening with the fed, the let'sof the rates now -- assume december is a done deal. maybe we need to start lessening regarding theons rate hike and the gaps. what should our expectations be? >> we have do a to december to find out what they will do. the feeling is, the rate will be low in the u.s.. demographic effects are still pushing down. the u.s. has more leverage than it did in the precrisis decade. market istually, the a little bit too low. rates will go up eventually. >> on the showed side, the do it.ot they may go under that. 2-3they do that, the next years are up. you are creating and other financial market potential crisis down the line. it is very similar to the one that hap

they want to get that money out to the real economy. k in terms of the actual euro/dollar currency, what is going to be important is to accompany it with more q.e. jonathan: richard jones and manus cranny. francine lacqua on "the pulse," the e.c.b. will do what it must to raise inflation quickly. they are worried about it for a long period of low inflation. will it become embedded? a concern. a big question for the markets. this morning, weaker euro the story of the market. down by half of 1%. the bond market, if you're looking at bonds rs largely unmoved. the dax pretty much flat. so much to discuss in this market of monetary policies as we enter a key month for global markets. if you want to talk markets, i'm on twitter at ferro tv. best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪ francine: whatever it takes. mario draghi says he will do what is necessary to raise inflation as quickly. the euro falls on his comments. manus: abn amro raises 3.3 billion euros and it returns to private ownership. shares are trading above the ipo prices. francine:

the united states economy is a big part of the global economy. also runs a big trade deficit which means we're kind of a consumer of last resort for a lot of the global economy. so if you've got the rest of the industrialized world, especially europe and japan, growing slower than they'd like, i think you want to be really sure we're not shutting off one source of demand growth for those countries as well. so i think that's surely got to be on the minds of fed policy makers too. >> bricklin dwyer who is with bnp paribas. josh bivens with the economic policy institute. thank you both tonight. appreciate it. >> thank you. >>> stocks ended the day little changed after that strong jobs report. gains in financials offset a big drop in utilities which is an interest rate-sensitive sector. the dow jones industrial average rose 46 points to 17,910. the nasdaq was 19 points higher. the s&p 500 was off a fraction of a point. for the week the dow and the nasdaq were more than 1% higher. the s&p up nearly 1%. the yield on the benchmark ten-year bond rose tod

some small benefit to offset the fact of overall economy. he debt limit, people may not understand that the debt limit is not about constraining government spending, it's about paying the bills for spending that occurred. not spending bill is a dead-beat thing to do. and i was very clear about that. i spoke about that quite often, of course, i let the treasury take the lead because that's their role, but the fed was engaged in that pretty consistently. >> was the -- okay. let me go on a different place. only one of the things that happened that was concern to some of us at least in the country, i think maybe house in senate is the increasingly consolidation of a small number of large financial institutions. i believe 15 years ago, something like that the largest sixth financial institutions made up about 18% of gdp. by 2010 and large part because of what happened with sixth largest institutions, by 2010 almost 60% gdp hasn't changed much then. most of the consolidation was leading up not as a result of frank. bloomberg calculated that they ha

the economy has picked up. no obvious signs of slowdown in the last thing is markets responding. on the other side of it is the dollar. the fed has to expect and will expect some tightening of the dollar is markets start pricing in the greater chance of the december rate hike. what we are seeing is the dollar rise about 1.5% higher than it was in september. that's within the order of magnitude that fed officials would find acceptable. if you see it moving back toward the 5% rise that clearly is something that depresses the outlook for inflation. seeing level, when were the movement against all currencies in this direction. anna: an official as saying that three people were killed at the start of this saint denis police operation. one woman blew herself up with explosives. this is the latest from this ongoing operation. >> that was maybe the trigger point for the operation but now , weseeing its continuing understand that a number of people are still hold up within an apartment that is surrounded by numerous pol

it's the economy, stupid. our whotv iow6a state university poll found no other issue's more important to likely caucusgoers right now. but we wanted to dig deeper into the numbers. here's what we found. men seem more concerned about the economy than women. 28 percent of men picked the economy as their top issue about 18 percent of women did. something surprised us on the economy issue. that's when you look at people's views on it based on the amount of money they make. those making under 25,000...the poorest of the iowans sampled. they cited the economy as their top issue less than other income groups. 17 percent of iowans in that group picked the economy as their top issue. the income group that chose the economy the most...those are people who make between 25 and 50,000 dollars. that is the income level where the a republican who's gaining ground in several polls will be here this weekend. ted cruz is making a three day swing through the state. the schedule of his first day shows him campaigning for ten hours

it is the second biggest economy in the world. these processes are never perceived smoothly. -- we'll have to deal with it. >> janet yellen says there is a possibility that the fed will raise rates. guess up when they will raise rates? >> the fed will do what is necessary to achieve -- >> that is very brave. you may have some basic scenario? >> in the end, the way we look at it, they will pursue a path of interest rate adjustments that are consistent with keeping with price stability. the u.s. economy is performing quite well. this is not the economy of precrisis years. that economy was of the table. it is performing well. we see it growing in the high twos. that is material for demand for the u.k. and one of the reasons why we see our economy continue to progress. i in quite confident that they will make the right decision at the right time. i am quite confident that they will make the right decision at the right time. familiar tofeel you? it is familiar to all central -- we are all as reliable as we can be. when i say i am confi

none of the rest of you are. we had a great economynder dwightiz dwight eisenhower. >> we had a 90% tax rate, didn't we? >> at the top which would only apply to you, neil. we want a balanced budget at least in sight. >> we had a great economy under john kennedy, by the way, who cut taxes. >> after his death. >> related to simplifying the tax road. we have an irs that's dangerous. it's been wielded as a political weapon. if you simplify the tax code and reduce it from the tens of thousands of pages that it is, you basically take the power away from the irs. >> i understand but is it unrealistic for carly fiorina to say to reduce it to three pages. is that realistic? >> i mean, every -- they all make that promise. the thing we haven't hit on is the spending. we have seen talk about revenue to the government. if they get 4 trillion they spend 5 trillion. that's what we have to deal with. >> i would have liked to have heard more of the other side. >> from a political messaging standpoint i think they fell down. maybe julie can help us with

the debate comes a week after learning the economy created an impressive 271,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 5%. we learnt that wages grew last month at the fastest year over year pace since 2009. tonight's debate comes two weeks after republicans gathered in colorado for a debate, which was an excuse to attack moderators from cnbs, with less than a year before the election, it's time to get serious. that is what i'll do in the next 30 minutes. even though the economic recovery is starting to look good. for many middle class americans, it doesn't feel real. mean feeling pain work for fast food outlets where they earn the minimum wage or above it. today, hundreds walked off the job, supporting protesters calls for, double the $7.25 an hour. organizers planned rallies, including the g.o.p. debate. the workers from demanding union representation. most republican candidates oppose the minimum federal wage. many say it will hurt low-wage workers, because businesses will be forced to cut jobs. as patricia sabga reports, the full implications are not cut. >> reporter: workers around th

yet the economy is so much bigger. where did all the money go? class? now, here's where -- did somebody just accuse the top one percent -- this is the tricky bit. this is where people get a little bit nervous because if you start talking about where the money went, then you can be accused, as i have been, of being a class warrior. now, i am not a class warrior. i'm a class worrier. there is a subtle difference between warrior and worrier, and here's what wire about. i worry, number one, the economy really can't function unless you have a large and growing middle class, and unless the poor can aspire and get into the middle class, because you don't have enough purchasing power in the economy to keep the economy going. if all the money is going to the top, people at the top north going to spend very much. they save and it their savings go around the world to wherever they get the best return. so you need just aggregate demand, all the purchasing power to keep the economy going and that's one reason this economy has been, and this recovery has been fairly

>> well, the economy is moving in slow motion. and, yes, these numbers were above expectations, but the previous two months were far below expectations. even though the employment rate continues -- the unemployment rate continues to fall, the truth is we have record numbers of people who are not working. we have record numbers of people who have just quit looking for work. we have wages that have been stagnant for 40 years. this economy is in slow motion, we're not creating enough jobs and we have too many people out of work. >> you talked a lot about regulation and how it is really holding back businesses from creating jobs. that's one of the levers to pull, i guess, for job creation. what is the secret sauce to getting more jobs in this economy today? >> well, i think we have to begin by recognizing where jobs come from. it is mostly, not all, but small and family owned and community-based businesses create two-thirds of the new jobs. we're destroying more of them than we're creating now. for first time in u.s. history. that's wh

growing the economy is about more than just tax reform. you want to hear about kind of returning the country to strong growth? >> on behalf of the young people on this purdue campus and everywhere in the country, i do hope this becomes the centerpiece not just of tonight, but of the entirety of the rest of the campaign. if we don't get this right and remain stuck at the pathetic 2% level growth rate, we've got long-term problems, not just for the american economy, but for the confidence in our democracy. so, yes, taxes is a big part of it, the incredible burden of regulation, which has been piled on and enormous quantities over the last few years, the handicapping of the best thing we have going right now, which is our energy sector, you will a -- all of these things ought to be in the mix and the conversation tonight and continuously until next november centers on it. dagen: what about this enormous -- i said this on "coast to coast" with neil cavuto. people are coming out of college and can't get jobs. if you want to work in the tech ind

if you have 70% of the u.s. economy doing well, and the average personal consumption over the last five quarters has been the strongest since 2005. so there is clear evidence that the domestic side of the economy, certainly the consumer side, is doing well. the problem is that there has been, the data has been mixed because of what is happening in the oil. this is new for the u.s. the fact that we had this collapse in investment in the mining sector. that has muddied the manufacturing data, along with a strong dollar which has impacted the data as well. but if you strip out the 15% that is manufacturing, the economy is looking pretty good. francine: where do you see euro -dollar? driven by q.e. or by the fed? derek: i think it is more driven by the fed. if you look at a chart over the last month, the big drop was on the 22nd draghi when we had the announcement from. -- when we had the announcement from draghi. if you look at the rates market, i would argue that the short-term yields in europe is more position for anothe

francine: the global economy, right? neil: it is but trade elacticity has been slowing for quite some time. in the 1990's, trade would grow two times faster than global production and now growing one for one. again, i just come back to the u.s., it all comes back to the u.s. labor market and the big debate really for the fed was whether the phillip curve was still useful or not. i think the governor went into the meeting and made her case. i think yellen and fisher made theirs. and i think it's pretty clear who won. tom: you go to the heart of the matter which is the elacticity or responsibleness of the global economy. there was a book "globalization and its discontent." how discontented are the emerging markets? we have o.c.d. coming out this hour and katherine man in the next hour. are they discontented with the u.s. or note the u.s. is the engine along with the united kingdom that will keep them going? neil: the unfortunate reality is the u.s. is a pretty weaken begin for global growth. tom: it's all we got, right? nei

it is hurting the american economy. [applause] and let me, add one other thing on this, be very aware now. what hillary clinton is talking about doing, if she is president of the united states is to make sure that the government gets even more involved in the economy, even more involved in making choices for everybody. you do not want that to happen. you need someone who will stand up on the stage and prosecute the case against her and prosecute it strong. that's what i'll do. [applause] moderator: senator santorum, do you agree with governor christie. you also said that the fed should be audited but many worry that given the congressional challenges that they face, by having congressional oversight of the fed, which has been historically an independent body, you would be making the fed much more political. how would you navigate that risk? >> i agree with governor christie. i don't think you can make it anymore political than it's been. they are proteching a president that is overtaxing and overregulating, shutting down

tonight is all about the economy. hear from candidates about how the obama economy is not working. america's top money man says the economy is quote quite convincingly positive. >> we had confident consumers. we had unemployment coming down. strong jobs growth. auto sales. we will see some months with good numbers and some with disappointing numbers. the direction has been quite convincingly positive. we could still be doing better. if we didn't have headwinds from a weaker global economy than we would have hoped for, we would have seen stronger growth. >> the u.s. economy performing well compared to the rest of the world. john berman, this is what the obama economy looks likes. 9 million jobs created. here is how it compares. interesting. think about it. population growth is different. it makes the reagan and clinton years better. >> fascinating chart. >> ammunition for the republicans. we have done things better. >> under reagan, 12.1 million. >> the democrats say there are structure things happening. we are not cre

so, what then we see after 1950's diversification of the economy. you see in the timber industry, japan, post-war emerges as one of the biggest exporters of pacific northwest logs. that most starts to change the economy of the region because the region's politicians and business leaders start to realize, we might actually need to diversify things a little bit because the timber industry is declining. there is a lot of sales of logs internally and also externally to the japanese. so, you have players like boeing in western washington. they just completed a big sale with china. this has been ongoing for the last four years. that becomes a big thing. in the 1980's, you have nintendo of america. the headquarters were in redmond, washington. you have the rise of silicon forest. in the suburbs of portland. intel has a big base out there. nike becomes a big global player. these are much more, kind of -- more modern industries that we think of as opposed to the farming, more agricultural industries which were dominant in the early -- earlier, before the 1950

we've got the u.s. economy and the fed on one hand. on the other hand, there's china , with president xi jinping saying the economy faces considerable downward pressure. let's look at how the markets in europe are reacting. just opening here and it looks like it could be red across the board. ftse 100 down. dax down over 0.5%. , almost byweaker too 0.7%. let's take a look at the dollar. this is going to be the currency in focus today. looking pretty flat, but it is at a seven-month high against the euro. look at the dollar index. the bloomberg dollar index tracks the dollar against a basket of 10 major currencies. that is at a record high. that is the dollar. i'll keep you up-to-date on equities. we've got to look at the commodity markets as well. gold coming in pretty flat. this is trading near a five-year low. expectations increase for that fed rate rise. coming off its worst stretch of losses since 1950. silver acts both as a precious metal and industrial metal. it is facing downward pressure from both sides. almosting a little, up

are we willing to cut the government economy to save the private economy? that' ve got to answer. >> nobody who is poor wants to be. that is a nonsense statement, harder. they are working as hard as they they get punished. d previously appeared in the undercard debate were not invited tonight because of their low polling senator lindsey graham and former governor george pataki. shelley: the next debate is coming up soon. the democrats debate this weekend. hillary clinton, bernie sanders, and martin o' malley will meet saturday night in iowa in a debate that will air on cbs. republicans are next scheduled to debate on december 15 in nevada. you' ll see that on cnn. the campaign trail will bring four republican candidates to new hampshire tomorrow. ted cruz, lindsey graham, rick santorum, and donald trump all have events planned in the granite state. democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders will also be campaigning here. you can find details in the candidate tracker in the politics section of wmur.com. tom: tonight democrat hillary clinton finished her

they want to make sure the u.s. economyand the rest of the global economy can also bear any brunt. if there is not any movement in december, it will be because they don't think the time is right from the standpoint of the whole package. >so, i don't think it will affect mario draghi. i think he knows what he wants to do and his focus is on the european economy. the issue be faces is the other two components of policy, fiscal and structural, need to be in place for his policy to have traction. he made that very clear at the center of the speech he gave in june in portugal that he says, why i talking about structural policy, i'm a banker? he cannot get to a central target unless the economies adjust and it is about structural. rishaad: up next, a special style hasre gangnam a whole new meaning. ♪ executive andrew mackenzie is due in brazil today to see the damage when two dams broke triggering deadly mudslides. three people are confirmed dead and at least 15 are still missing. the bank could cost $1 billion and an investor ma

we will also get his thoughts on the u.k. economy, the global economy. l chime in on what we heard from the governor of the bank of england as well around interest rates in the u.k. a wide-ranging conversation. michael rake joins us after this short break. here's a live picture of london. ♪ >> what i rather have the majority of the british people thinking rates could go up next year? yes i would, because that is reasonably proven behavior given a likely path of the economy. anna: ready for a rate rise? in an exclusive interview, mark carney says britain should prepare an 2016. usa, will jobs figures and strengthen the need for moves by the feds? ast metal cuts its estimates third-quarter profit fell. ♪ welcome to the program, you are watching "countdown." it is just got 8:00 and germany, and let's get to some data coming out of germany. live industry output falling by 1.1%, the estimate here was for an increase. let's turn briefly to jane foley back in the studio. it seems like yesterday we got some numbers from the german economy that was declining. jane

has the fed done good job stabilizing the economy, preventing crises? here's the great depression, recession. happened on the feds watch. some defenders of the fed will go further -- okay, if you throw out the great depression, if you throw out the great depression -- i love golf. >> thank you. [laughter] >> someone got the joke. if you look at postworld war ii volatility, just on that focus, people will say gnp or gdp was more stabilized but actually there's a 2012-page paper, economists, including cristina romer has said a lot of the criticism of 1913 era is based on faulty statistics. they were looking at commodities series more generally as if you look output as a whole even focusing on the world war ii period on the u.s. economy has been less stable than it was -- >> thereone-minute warning. this is your one-minute warning. >> they teach that in law school. >> they do. >> just looking at statistics here, statistics published like cristina say that there's a plausible case that it has been stable than before the federal reserve. in terms of two major

we see the chinese economy slowing to about 6%. china is at the center of this but this is not just a china story. >> when you say best estimate, you said before about china's numbers being murky. you said the prospect of banks -- how much do you worry about how much bad stuff there is on the balance sheets of chinese banks? >> i think anytime you have had a sharp increase in credit growth as you have in china and non-japan asia, one can expect there will be an uptick in nonperforming loans. we have not yet seen that. the increase in private credit, the increase in aggregate credit in china has doubled to more than two times gdp over five years. as the economy slows and is normal growth slows in china, to put a figure on that, chinese nominal growth was about 20% in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. it has slowed to about 6% at present. the debt dynamics get more difficult. one would expect there would be an increase in nonperforming loans and banks would have to adjust to that. >> do you think they are measuring it correctly?

but we do envision gradual recovery in the economy in the housing sector.let me come back to the point that i made earlier, which is the committee anticipates a very gradual increase in interest rates. we are not envisioning that when we begin to raise rates we are going to be looking at a very steep path of interest rates that would cause the kind of harm you are worried about to the housing sector. that whole path matters. that is gradual. >> the time of the gentleman has expired. the chair recognizes the gentleman from missouri. >> thank you, mr. chairman. it's interesting to listen to the gentleman from california. he's an interesting guy but i have never heard god's plan for the seasons correlated with the fed's plan to raise interest rates. i enjoyed the discussion this morning, gentlemen. welcome, chair yellen. i want to talk about the designation of insurers. they have become rubber stamped with the board. it's my understanding they made the designation for globals, without ex-ten sieve a nal sis from companies other than what was publicly available