the u.s. economy since the turn of the year have been mixed. i want to bring you through the details. the negatives include manufacturing and net exports. they have been hit hard by slow global growth and the strong dollar. it's lackluster and hit by the collapse of and housing along with positive fiscal policy. she comes back into the far end economic weakness which is likely to be weaker than this year than previously expected. she does say that the decline of interest rates that came along with the market volatility possibly offset that along with oil prices. goes through inflation here and it's interesting and what she does here is dismiss the high inflation numbers or find reasons why not to believe them: but it's too early to tell if this faster pace will prove to be durable. there's signs that inflation expectations may have drifted down. now there is a possibility conditions could turn out to be more favorable than she expects and continue to expect labor market improvement and a return of inf

the u.s. economy is in good shape. they are adding lots of jobs. growth is good. that explains why we started raising interest rates in december. this is why our own projections are forecast. this shows us raising interest rates gradually this year. it's not because we are trying to raise interest rates just to raise interest rates. the economy is doing quite well and unemployment has come way down. inflation is moving back to our goal. i am not that worried. it's been a source of major disruption. it's in the context of a strong u.s. economy and an improving its the mostn boring monetary policy i think about. we are talking about small increments over time. it's not as dramatic or siding as the things we were doing after the financial crisis. my hope is it will go smoothly. will janet yellen echo that sentiment? will we hear a dove or a hawk russian mark i want to bring in an advisor to the fed. he joins us now from dartmouth college. thank you so much for being here. your take? think she is going to

economy. the real economy has been moving ahead steadily. n the latest gdp numbers shown at a macro level. we're seek it in car sales and household formation and in housing activity. we're certainly seeing it in employment with 14.5 million jobs. >> rose: after 2008 business was needed with confidence. they had money to spend but confidence do you see that on the part of business being willing to increase their inventory, to engage in expansion of facilities and that kind of thing. >> we're sitting here at the end of the first quarter of the year that's shown. >> rose: just announced the figures. >> a lot of nervous ness in the market. you look at the weak global demand. there's a lot of things you could worry about. when you look at the u.s. economy, i think we've shown that we've reached a level of strength that'sv; quite real and sustainable. the u.s. economy is 85% domestic and most of that is consumer driven. if you continue to have a strong consumer, you continue to have a strong u.s. economy. that's why i'm focusing on the global situa

first they oppose stimulated the economy. in fact, every single one of them in the house voted against the recovery act. they demanded budget cuts at exactly the time when economic theory says government should increase spending to boost demand. the report notes that the economy faces long-term structural challenges. first of all, the baby boomers are retiring. that alone will decrease labor force participation and slow the growth of gdp. we also face the devastating effects of off shoring of american jobs, and job losses due to automation and technical changes. these challenges are not a surprise. they have been on economists radars for years. so what should we do? i agree with your assessment that we need to rebuild the nation's crumbling infrastructure, invest in early childhood education, implement paid leave, achieve equal pay for equal work, and make college more affordable. i want to close by looking at economic inequality, one of the central issues of our time, and the focus of the first and fourth chapters of the econ

: i do not think it would be good for the global economy. is partially economic of tradeof the slow and economic relationships. it is partially geopolitical and strategic in terms of holding on to unity. in a world where one of the things that drives the economy is the uncertainty of geopolitical risk, it was interesting at the g-20 meeting, the risk of grexit was something people were talking about in a different way. is that something you can measure with an economic index, no. but is it clear that when you increase the level of unease it has an economic consequence, yes. i have seen all kinds of estimates on what it means for the european economy, europe has a hard time struggling to get to a sustainable growth anywhere near strong enough. unemployment, anything that would move that in the wrong direction would be bad for the economy and geopolitically destabilizing. breaking news on metlife. it looks like they have won their day in court, not being hyman has-- julie more on this. news foris is big metlife. it has been fighting this since

you look at the core of the u.s. economy. the real economy has been moving ahead steadily. e latest gdp numbers show it on a macro level. we see it in car sales, household formations. said thatt used to be what business needed was confidence. had plenty of money to spend but they were not spending it. that confidence, do you see that in terms of businesses being willing to increase inventory? we are sitting here at the end of the first quarter of the year that is shown. a lot of nervousness in the markets. look at the geopolitical situation, look at the week global demand. there are a lot of things that you can worry about. when you look at the u.s. a level we have shown of strength that is quite real and sustainable. u.s. economy is 85% domestic and most of that is consumer driven. if you continue to have a strong consumer, you have a strong u.s. economy. i think having a stronger global economy right now is where that confidence needs to come from. charlie: where do you see inflation over the year? jack: inflation, depending on which measure you look at, has been getting c

first of all, the u.s. economy has been very resilient in recent months in the face of shocks, and we highlighted that right at the beginning of our statement where we said that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months, and that is important that the u.s. economy continues to do well. second, i would say that while global developments do pose some downside risks, the risks are not all one-sided. a number of countries, including china, the euro area, the bank of japan, have taken measures to stimulate the economy, so there is also upside risk to the economic outlook, and in addition, oil prices have rebounded from their lows and that eases concerns about financial condition of some energy firms and the stresses facing some oil-producing economies, and at the same time, low oil prices continue to boost household purchasing power. so there are risks. we're attentive to them. we have not described them as unbalanced to the downside,

the real economy. i don't think that is happening to the extent they think is happening. what you sawat, and what i said five minutes ago in terms of pensions, it hampers long-term liability and makes them less credit worthy. scarlet: as we look to the man says thejohn hermi fed continues to disregard the remarks. tom: i love what chris said. the idea of a fed that is really moving away from messages from a number of [indiscernible] mike showed this earlier. what i want to know, bill gross, 2%.he blue band -- it's at richard earlier making clear that it is a diminished view versus where the fed is. when will the fed catch up with what you've written for janice capital are what we hear from professor clarida? bill: they are catching up. the dots are coming down closer to work. i think in a historical sense, based on the taylor rule, based on the phillips curve, the interest rates in a normalized fashion deserve in this market and in this economy 3% to 4%. they think that, if inflation gets up to 2% or ev

why is it also good for the broader economy? >> one of the challenges we face in our economy is a demographic challenge that where increasing aging society. one way to increase the growth of our labor forces to incorporate more men and women in the workforce. when you take steps like more flexible workplaces, more subsidies for child care, reducing the tax penalty on secondary earners and other measures along those line, paid leave, all of that helps bring more women into the workforce and helps us overcome some of the demographic challenges we have built into our structure. >> people understand that programs like heads guard and universal pre-k are are an effective tool for helping children succeed in life, what are the economic benefits for allowing all of our children to have this opportunity a pre-k. >> recently economic research has been taking advantage of studies that follow children over long period of time. after public policies. they found that high-quality preschool, for example raises future earnings substantially. it

so you could still provide some support to the economy. ings not tried others but prescriptive forward guidance where you promise to deliver an inflationary boom in the future, when interest rates are no longer zero. so you say once i get the power to do so, i'm going to produce an inflationary boom. and the idea is that households households in the distance is anticipating future good times spent more today because that is when economists say there will be good times in the future you start doing more today. so why didn't anybody use it? no academic paper says they do the right thg and no central bank tried in the world but it requires the sector to overextend itself today having faith that the party is going to happen in the future. and the central banks announced in their explanation for why they didn't do that the bank of england have all said we have lots of reasons to be dubious about this. for the fed, one reason is that the current fomc can't dictate future policy. we could have a chair turn over soon were the chair turnover with th

many factors that is affecting the economy. do in the big picture is that the european economy is picking up. there are weak results in that oil of the -- again, lower prices should actually have a positive effect on global economy. we don't see that for the time being which is a bit strange. but i think that confidence is important in oil markets, which is important that governments printn active part and your bidding to -- in contributing to infusing confidence in markets. francine: talk to me about norway. we started the interview with your saying you need to push reforms through. are there one or two reforms you want to nail down in the next 12 months? tom: ms. jensen ms. jensen: we launched a tax reform to parliament before christmas. hopefully it will be decided in parliament. francine: is there anything else in giving confidence? bout the psychology of the markets. if you look at economy and growth, we also talk on the psychology of consumers. do you feel like you have any power over that? ms. jensen: consumer confidence

lag to it.a i do think we have seen the best of the acceleration of the u.s. economy. i do think we are moderating from where we were because of what you said. up. want to tie that what is at me for the treasury? there was an argument at the fed meeting that the federal reserve was going to run things hot and allow inflation to rubber shoe. >> i think your statement is 100% right. the fed made a decision that will let inflation run hotter, let unemployment run hotter. you have so many tools at your disposal to break them and you have tools to break a deflationary cycle. end?about the back the backend of the yield curve is very dynamic. are seeing inflation expectations that are trending higher, as they should. however, you take japanese long rates,tes -- long-term 10 year treasury at 2% is a steel compared to negative rates. we don't think you will see a depreciation. in terms of being around these levels, it could trend a bit lower given that demand function. signals they used to send is over? >> you say -- you see a lot of economic data. that is not relevant because w

, services and dransicing the economy. growth is slowing. the government assist is saying the government is saying more than 7% growth is gone. they'll aim to 6.5 and 7%. per not talking about growth. >> you talked about foreiinfoxchange - about foreign exchange. there was talk about imposing tariffs from china, taxes on goods. if china does not deal with the currency, increase the value of their currency. talk about that for me. >> some of the policy rhetoric, and what ultimately see the light of day. there's a big difference. that. china is doing a lot of things that the west and america has been pushing for it to do. moving to a fleshible ploeting exchange rate. that is causing concern that it is strengthening. you can't have is both ways they are not quite there yet. and not have moves reflecting fundamentals, you can make a good argument that if you let it become more flexible, it wouldn't be a surprise if it started to weaken. that's what it's doing. that's what it's supposed to do. >> standard and poor's commit, that

the people. that way it creates a real market-based economy. rishaad: that is one of the reasons that the debt trajectory was downgraded by moody's four. ,he other was capital outflows the drawdown in foreign reserves. how much of that is setting off alarm bells? thinkingt know the the between party decisions, because a lot of the decisions are inconsistent. if you are not going to reform, you have to stop the money from leaving. otherwise you will have exposures. why do you want money to flow out when you're not doing things to revive confidence in the economy? these things are not consistent. the government really has to think through, they have to stop the hemorrhaging first. they have to shut the doors. they can think about how we can make the economy sustainable. that is a long process. in the short-term, stop the hemorrhage, stop the money from leaving. up rightmore coming after this break. ♪ rishaad: you are back with "trending business". we have just been talking about china. that is the host country for the g-20. a communiquÉ suggesting

the deficit has come down as the economy has improved. and byress raised taxes accident a lot of spending restraint thanks to the sequester. the deficit is not getting much bigger in the near term but it does get bigger toward the end of the decade. a nation that has a humongous federal debt and is proposing to increase it. out the rest of the world is still willing to lend us a lot of money at low interest rates. trent -- 10yield on year treasuries remains below 2%. fiscal policy automatically adjusts to recessions. the dark blue on this chart shows you the extent to which automatic stabilizers kicked in during the great recession. how much of the deficit was due to them. these automatic stabilizers do not include the big american recovery act. just things that took place without any action from congress. a substantial fraction of the deficit. we just gave a list of all the things that congress did in addition to the automatic stabilizers. while the tarp cost $600 billion the ultimate cost was only about $40 billion. congress did quite a

correct in terms of the overall scale of the u.s. economy. a sense, anything that happens in europe is very diluted. because of the internal focus of the u.s. economy and it's clear scale. if europe did something really silly from a policy point of view, or from a similar banking failure in europe, if you had a big recession in europe, say a minus 3% economy, the impact would only be about half a percent. anna: even if we saw the banking sector in london getting himself into hot water with high borrowing cost of a which some examples could be short-term impact of brexit, that would be so diluted to not be that important. jim: on the u.s. for that is correct. remember, the u.s. is huge domestic economy. also very global in its trade. one of the other reasons i am pretty structurally positive about the u.s. is that what the u.s. does is in great demand worldwide. just think about what it is. aerospace, software, pharmaceuticals, entertainment content. all of those things are not very price-sensitive. the people want them regardless. the chinese

but the economy itself? it's a slow-going economy, that's all we've got. but the profit decline i do think is temporary. it's about the dollar, it's about oil. they reversed. i think you'll see a big reversal in profits by the end of this year. >> jack, so do you think that we are going to see a fairly decent market year given the recovery that we've seen, even if there is some pain out there? >> well, i think we have maintained our defensive position -- >> david, let me pick up with you as we try to restore our signal with jack. as we move into this first quarter profit reporting seen which will happen about three weeks from now what do you expect to see? is it likely to be unsetting or encouraging? >> no, i think it should be basically encouraging. the key thing is to separate out the dollar effect, which still -- the dollar will still be up year over year and that's hurting, particularly the oil effect. i think people get used to looking past those. i think things will look better. and also, we'll get an employment report which should look pretty good. s

you improve growth do you cut the economy or do you invest? you invest and put money in the pockets of the middle class and create the opportunities to grow. approachs we are in an that i'm confident is going to give us the better growth that will create more of government revenue and get us through this phase. that was canada past prime minister speaking exclusively on bloomberg television. the deficit, to there are numbers like 32 billion canadian floating around. is that realistic? guest: if anything, we have learned he's not going to spend like a drunken sailor. that has a high contribution to growth and government spending. you might have to think about having to dial the down a little. most shovel ready projects are maintenance projects. they don't require you to hire as many workers so the multiplier effect is lower. tracy: he did suggest that they are thinking of helping bombard ea -- helping bombardier. what are they thinking? guest: it could be some kind of equity stake or some kind of loan with conditional repayment, but it is inter

more things are impacting the u.s. economyoday, not domestic factors, mostly global factors and the fed has to respond to that via the way they talk about financial conditions. so it becomes very, very opaque and nobody knows exactly -- that become a challenge. >> well, we're going to try to delve into the opaqueness this afternoon. thank you so much. >>> we're seeing a big move higher here in oil. look at this trade here. wti is up about 4% and the ten-year yield, this is where the action could be, once the fed issues its decision. it is sitting just below 2% ahead of that decision. stick with us. "power lunch" will be right back. our cosmetics line was a hit. the orders were rushing in. i could feel our deadlines racing towards us. we didn't need a loan. we needed short-term funding fast. building 18 homes in 4 ½ months? that was a leap. but i knew i could rely on american express to help me buy those building materials. amex helped me buy the inventory i needed. our amex helped us fill the orders. just like that. another st

youetary lew: i don't think will be good for the u.s. economy or the global economy. charlie: what is the impact? secretary lew: partially economic in terms of trade and economic relations and partially geostrategic in terms of holding onto unity and in a world where one of the things that drives the economy is the uncertainty of geopolitical risk, it was interesting at the g-20 minting the risk of the brexit is something that people were talking about -- charlie: talking about it in china when i was there over the weekend. secretary lew: is that something you can measure with the economic index? no. but the unease and economic consequence? yes. i see all caps customs about what it means for the british economy and european economy. -- all kinds of estimates about what it means for the british economy and european economy. charlie: and youth unemployment. secretary lew: huge youth unemployment. anything in the wrong direction would be destabilizing. catch the entire interview tonight on bloomberg television at 7:00 p.m. eastern time in the u.s. here on bloomberg televi

so i think it's right to say the economy is improving, and most groups are saying benefits. that said, we know that inequality has been rising in the united states over many years, not just the last several but going back to the mid '80s. there has been downward pressure on real wage groups, on real wage gains for groups, particularly those that are less skilled and educated, and those longer-term trends that may be associated with a number of factors come technological change and globalization, have been a concern for many, many years and that may be part of what we are seeing expressed. >> chair yellen, there seems to be some growing sentiment that even if the direct economic ties between the u.s. and other economies is still relatively modest, that the impact through financial markets and exchange rates has become more robust. and because of that it's becoming more difficult or will become more difficult for the fed to diverge the other major central banks with its benchmark interest rate. would you generally agree with that sentiment? why or why not? and very briefly the

reflectssion partly the implications for the u.s. economy of the global economic and financial developments i just mentioned. in addition, preceding cautiously in removing policy willmodation at this time allow us to verify that the labor market is continuing to strengthen, despite the risks from abroad. such caution is appropriate given the short-term interest rates are still near zero, which means that monetary policy has toater spoke to respond upside than to downside changes in the outlook. as we indicated in our statement, the committee expects the economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradually increases in the federal funds rate. federal funds rate is likely to remain for sometime below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. this expectation is consistent with the view that the neutral rate would bel neither expansionary nor contractionary if the economy was operating near potential. this currently low by historical standards is likely to rise gradually over time. the low level of the neutr

we had a measure where we break out the old economy and the new economy and the old economy would be road traffic area it's: iron ore and stuff like that in the new economy is truck shipping which will go to retail. it's interesting. mark: good to see you. we will see you long-term in london in not too long. coming up on bloomberg markets, moreore got desert jumped than 18%, the biggest one-day gain ever. how long will this last? we will look at that after the break. ♪ vonnie: two commodities, the bounce in oil prices has reached 2.5% today. another commodities rally is going on in metal with iron ore soaring the most in ice tingled day. -- in a single day. one analyst in china says the market is gone berserk. copper is up more than $.60 this year following three straight weeks of gains. will this continue? you had signaled this in your notes last month saying this desert there was possibly a bottom for the moment. let's talk about china. have we seen the current state of demand? has the state of demand been clarified in china? >> i don't think it has and that's what's interesting abo

the ecb is less likely to cut further into economy. you're concerned about negative interest rates, the impact on the banks and what is going on in the bond market, this is a normalizing signal which we should welcome over the medium term. >> all right. >> silence. tumble weed. >> speaking of the strong dollar, that has had an impact on hewlett-packard enterprises. shares xceeded estimates on the top and bottom line. ceo meg whitman, who was the republican candidate for governor of california in 2010, i would remind everybody, joins me now. we will talk about your statements from sunday, ms. whitman. first to the quarter itself. as i said, the first report since the split. does this quarter in a way justify. many things you spoke about the virtues of splitting, including the focus of it no longer being a part of the larger organization? >> i think the strength of the quarter does underlie the premise of the split, which is two different businesses with more focus from senior leaders, more focus on customers. it's the first proof point

the main thing for us is the economy. ave seen -- the last data points that were really interesting work the core cpe the in the u.s. that showed effects of oil prices may be transitory, which has indications on how we -- what we think of interest rates for the rest of the year. alix: i'm glad you brought up oil. take a look at the bloomberg. i'm looking at the s&p versus oil. i want to get a sense of your correlation, the historical spread. correlation has picked up as oil has gone up over all. the last few days have been different. oil has gotten how did -- pounded hard. are we recovering from that? >> it would be nice to think so. i think the really sinister thing with regards to oil that we have seen over the last year and a half in particular is the link between oil and long-term inflation expectations. as monetary policy has been so anchored to the sponsor rate, every time the oil goes lower annexes haitians though lower, you let out the scat remaining remaining error. more broadly, in a sense, they should be less co

people said, consumers will drive the economy. hat will support economic growth in the first half of the year. that has backslid in light of the latest retail numbers, but nevertheless, we have confidence from the jobs data to know that the income growth is there, so the consumer will ultimately be there. let's bring up the gdp chart. i stumbled on this one. 30 years back. we were at 3.7% real gdp. we have come down to a run rate of 1.6%. if you take the regression, the trend of all that noise of real gdp data, richard, this speaks to the political turmoil, which is the back drop of the supreme court announcement today, and frankly, this fed meeting. absolutely, we have had a slowdown in income growth and productivity growth. as a result, wages have stagnated, so you create a political tension. economist talk about gdp growth, the s&p at a near high, but millions of american, they have not seen a wage increase in 20 years, so you are right. slow growth creates those tensions and we are in a period of global slowdown and productivit

the u.s. economywing we're not in recession and the markets pricing out what they priced in in the beginning of the year, which was overly pessimistic. >> that's a great point. you mentioned a data light week ahead of us. that's good because it allows investors to take a step back and realize the economy is doing well here. we had an update to the atlanta fed's gdp now tracking model on friday. it is showing us that the economy is growing at a 2.2% pa pace. meanwhile stocks are down this year. to your point, that's right. markets have overreacted to the down side. we're seeing a melt up which makes sense. >> which sectors have overreacted the most? where is there opportunity given this strength in the labor market you're seeing, albeit lower inflation but things have sold off at times this year? >> it's clearly the cyclicals. that's presenting another opportunity. as a firm we'd be playing the industrials on this melt up here. you mentioned transports, they've been punished. that presents a good valua

think about how huge the economy is. about the really talk european economy yet as just one big economy. if you look at strong growth in germany and france, you have problems in spain and italy. look at the you european union, you talk about 28 unemployment rate. the unemployment rate in germany is more positive than that. jon: i was told something a number of years ago. when you are told this time is different, get nervous, but maybe this time is different and we should not debate it. the run of the dollar, dollar-yet, climbing for a seventh straight day. euro-dollar down for a seventh straight day. of thethis on the back fed saying there is the possibility of a rate hike in a goal -- in april that should be put back on the table. we will find out tomorrow is janet yellen validates that stance. matt: there were more dovish statements, recently john williams out saying that we have to take into account what is going on in china and brazil. those economies weigh heavily on the u.s. the fed has a dual mandate here. they hav

and other areas of weakness in the global economy. alked in the last hour about the links we have seen between stocks and energy markets. that was true when stocks are falling and stocks have rebounded since the middle of february and as we've seen these oil prices go higher let's check in where we are. we're off our highs earlier on in the session. on nymex.here we are ist to check in on the pound a great deal of focus as we head -- 1.4197 is where we are on the pound verse the dollar. >> yes, chinese regulators are said to be planning to impose new rules to end the practice of taking out loans to cover down payments. small loan companies and peer-to-peer networks. as occurring to people familiar with the matter. >> hong kong residential home sales plunged 70% to 25 year low. property prices have now declined by 10% from their september high. increasesnterest rate planned by the government to boost housing supply in the next five years. this iranian billionaire has been sentenced to death after being found guilty and a fraud case invo

in the economy.t is ecb day, and we have people focused even more so on that scene. let us check in on the radar. one central banker decided not to give further stimulus to markets, it was the south korean central bank. the south korean currency is increasing after the bank of korea gave no change to its interest rates, against all 31 major peers this morning. at this in on oil prices, at 38.21 on nymex. but that was after some real strength yesterday, the wdi up by 4.9% in yesterday's session in new york. and because of the ecb data, let us check out what is happening with the euro as well. you just had it on your screen. if we can bring back the currency just a show you what is happening with the euro, a little bit more volatility in that currency. thewe are at 1.0978 against dollar. it city bloomberg first word news. priceschina's consumer jumped in february, driven higher by food costs over the new year. pricese 2.3% as food surged by 7.3%. the producer price index fell almost 5%, extending decli

then the export side of the u.s. economy and energy and manufacturing that are really struggling to get the strength of the u.s. dollar. >> what about those two sectors, because some people look at the whip saw we're seeing in oil and the down draft we're seeing in other areas as recessionary. or deflationary. do either of those two terms fit with your scenario for the economy? >> i don't think those apply to the u.s. economy. in the u.s. we're looking to real gdp growth of 2% in 2016 or maybe a little better. the unemployment rate will probably continue to move, edge lower over the course of the year, maybe reach 4.7% by the end of the year. that's pretty good by u.s. standards. for low oil prices obviously it's negative for oil producers, but it's like a tax cut for american consumers. and it should boost consumer spending power. and that will mean more spending on other goods and services in the u.s. economy. >> are you happy with wage growth? because we're starting to see a little bit of -- not wage inflation necessarily

so this is a problem that the economy has to slow. is at a size where it would slow naturally anyway. unfortunately, investors will pick up the headline and sell the market. said, 90 percent of capital accounts in chinese stock markets are retail. so this home and services is a bit of it had during the -- a bit of a red herring. got a two-step economy, a two sector economy. you have an economy that is doing quite poorly in this excess capacity that needs to just be shut down and removed. then you have the new economy that is doing fine actually. if you look at the eye is some numbers, the pmi numbers that come out of china -- the psi pmi numbers that come out of china, i think the economy is fine. we hardly speak about the chinese bond market. equity markets are just sentiment-driven. have a natural rhythm. apart from china, look at what around the world where we have had a three-week rally. everything seems fine at the moment. information onal the fundamental economic front, this rally, i think, is going to turn around and reverse. r

how can it affect the rest of the economy? i think what we've learned over the past eight, nine years his interconnections matter and in particular in the case of housing, it wasn't just the actual act of building housing, but the fact people owned assets that were involved in housing warehouse says and that assets were derived or derivatives have their value on the basis. the case of greece, lots of private individuals had asset there issued by the greek government or by a greece private individuals. and so, those holdings lose value as you think they are less able to pay. there is a big ramification for people's portfolios over substance of that wealth. that is one instance. in the case of greece, there was another set of concerns, one of which is that the hero was built on the concept that no government could default. every government was going to embark on the path of sustainable finances. the very fact a country was in your area would get into trouble and none would have to be valid out, which is again -- that is put out o

what this means for the global economy? , the rate has been beneficial. >> it is like the industry association backing the industry represents. this is the central bank, the overarching central-bank. they have done an objective study that looks at how these negative rates, which we see in places like japan and switzerland, are impacting the economy. that ity have found is is not as dire as the banks would like you to believe. europe,re falling in i'm concerned that it will impact profitability, and there is a clear link here between the two. a study shows negative policy toes are not transmitted money market rates, in the same way as positive rates, and that means the market does not necessarily interpret it friendly, at least for the time being. this is something they think will continue to work, and is a matter of how low you can go, really. the key variable is how long this goes. for prolonged amount of time, this could have a profound impact. >> get the latest on japan's reopening, after the break. >> you're watching "as

. >> it's the economy, how the raucous tone of the presidential campaign impacts a key issue this election cycle. >>> checking in. a major chinese company is making a big push into u.s. real estate and it's hungry for american hotels. >>> at a crossroad. two companies and two ceos returning from medical leave and lots of big hurdles ahead. all of that and more on "nightly business report" for monday, march 14th. >>> good evening, everyone. welcome. a new survey tonight shows that the chaotic presidential campaign trail is changing the way people feel about the economy and not for the better. according to cnbc, the current climate is impacting the outlook for the american economy, which includes everything from taxes to jobs to foreign trade. and these forecasts are something investors are watching closely since the economy only grew at 1% in the final three months of last year. steve liesman breaks down the results of the survey. >> interesting results from the cnbc fed survey. we asked a bunch of political questions and what you see is of our 42 respondents, 56% say the campaign is negati

they are part of the core economy. e big story we are here to talk about is essentially what i call the new mainstream economy. that gets to this issue -- charlie: you started the latino donor collaborative? guest: it was started by henry and i to look at what was happening, the conversation about latinos in the country, intended to be negative, intended to be a lot of things that, if you are a parent of a young latino, you would say, i do not want to see that on tv. what we did was we decided we would form a nonpartisan group solely focused on what i call the brand. also, dealing with facts and data that might be relevant for people to understand what latinos in the united states really are. a population that is younger than the average. therefore, household formations yet to come. therefore, homeownership, consumer purchases, $1.5 trillion worth of spending in the economy. part of our function in being here is to, at this moment in american life, when so many myths are perpetuated related to latinos, to tell the truth

dollar in the u.s. economy, you have to think about the devaluation of five, six, seven, ten or 20 times for the price of the goods and services in the economy. the salaries are calculated structured based on that fiction. inflation is high and people can't afford with the current salary what they need to survive. you need more than 7 minimum wages to pay for the basic goods that a family needs and then, if you make the adjustment in the dollar and in the prices that you need to do, 3,000 percent in dollar terms, then what's going to happen with the salaries. you have to some way match wages to that increase in prices and that's going to create a spiral of inflation. people can't afford to pay whatever they could later find if you made the adjustment. venezuelians are in desperate need for a transition and that requires understanding dialogue of all of the political forces and the productive forces in the country and that is one of the more difficult scenarios that you can think about in venezuela these days. >

yesterday, president obama discussed the u.s. economy and his record on job creation. 242,000 jobsdded last month. the president's remarks from the white house are five minutes. is everybody all set? tohought it might be useful take a small break from the spectacle of the political focus on something that really matters to the american people. that is how is the economy doing and how is it affecting the lives? we learned this morning that the u.s. economy had created 242,000 jobs last month. that's two months in a row the employment rate is below 5%. over the past three month come our workforce is grown by 1.5 million people. that is progress. overall, american business has for 72ated new jobs straight months, six straight years of job creation. 14.3 million new jobs. our businesses equated jobs every single months since i signed that job killing obama care bill. think about this -- if somebody had told the seven years ago that we would get to this point at a time when we were losing 800,000 jobs a month, and the unemployment rate hit 10

. >>> ceos say the economy has room to improve. a survey released by the business round table, a group of business leaders from some of the country's biggest companies, finds that ceo expectations on the economy remain mixed. mary thompson joins us with more on that. what did the survey tell us, mary? >> first of all, their outlook improved from the fourth quarter. the index itself remained well below its long-term average. the ceos are expecting to see an increase in sales. that's good news. and they are also expecting to increase their capital expenditures, good news for the economy. to the down side, though, they are all planning to dial back on hiring. >> so they are more optimistic than they were but they are hardly optimistic? >> yes. they still feel that there are things that need to happen to make the economy run at full steam. >> let's talk about trade, which has been a controversial topic on the campaign trail. where do these ceos stand on where trade is a job creator or job killer? >> there was a specific question about t

are low oil prices good or bad for the economy? >> they're good for the economy. i mean, if oil cost nothing, it would be wonderful for companies that imported oil and terrible for companies that exported. you import, you want the price to go down, anything you export, you want the price to go up and we're producing more oil than we used to, but we're a big oil importer. it's good for the united states overrule, but the part that's good, which means that you pay a little less at the pump the next time you fill your tank, that bleeds in very slowry and in very small amounts of people. when oil goes from $100 to $30, all kinds of bankrolls go bad, so the bad effects to the people that are in the production business get instantly felt, and they spread through the economy very quickly and the beneficial effects just kind of gradually lose in. phenomenon? >> well, i'm very surprised. i mean, my partner, charlie, says never underestimate a man that overestimate himself. and i think you see a lot of that in business. politics, too. surprised. obviously, he appeals to a b

do you cut the economy or invest in the economy?ink you put money in the class and spend money to grow. that means we are in an approach that i am confident is going to give us the better growth that will create more government revenue and get us through this. >> you have the benefit system and have looked at tax credits for children. the question of old age security? prime minister trudeau: there is a nice aryl here. my predecessor went to davos and announce in a bloomberg -- the reviews are mixed in canada on how wise this was, announcing he is going to raise the age one receives old age security. we think that's a mistake and i've campaigned against it. i'm happy to confirm here in a bloomberg interview that next week's budget, we will confirm we are keeping the old retirement age at 65 because how we care for our most vulnerable in society is important. graduallyople are pushing out the age at which people can take pensions. you are running against what most economists would push for. prime minister trudeau: just tweaking the ag