why might the economy react that way? the reason i think that you could give is that with the election of donald trump, we had the promise now that hillary clinton's foot would not be replacing a rock obama's foot on the regulatory break. one thing president trump was able to do at the beginning of the administration is bring a strong stop to the regulatory outpourings that were underway under president obama. those regulatory outpourings had a distinct chilling effect on economic growth. we saw in the second quarter that the economy accelerated up to 3%. you don't want to make too much out of a single quarter but that's a promising figure. it's a strong and balanced representation of the economy. there is some hope that that will continue for a while. it will not go on indefinitely, however. ellen blinder, the former fed vice chair recently wrote an article in which he observed that economies and their expansions don't and it just because they get tired. they don't come to a conclusion just because you have run out of str

the economy is doing quite well. we're benefiting from a synchronized global expansion for the first time in many years, almost all of the major economic centers in the global economy are doing reasonably well. that means they're all supporting one another. we're all stronger if we're all stronger. it means real wages should be rising and what we have to do right now is make sure that this continues. if we want to see this increase in real wages we have to keep the rest of the economy going. that means avoiding unforced errors and policy like the debt limit and infrastructure, tax reform and trade to make sure that we give the economy the policy support it needs and if we do all of those things and congress passes a tax reform and on a timely basis and some time preferably this year. the economy should continue to do very well for a long time as allen blinder pointed out, expansions don't end just because they get tired. what we need to do is make sure there's enough energy in the economy and enough strength through g

consumer spending is 30% of the economy. gross output measure spending not just final output my students get it when they say topline bottom-line, they get it just like that the economists are slow. >> so what does that the supply side believe. they believe the key is innovation, entrepreneurship, shaving, i actually think ben franklin said it best, he's one of my favorite founding fathers. he says there's three virtues. if you have these virtues you can be successful in by personally as a family, as a business and as a nation, is a government. those three principles are industry, drift, pre-gallery. prudent behavior. if you work hard and are productive but you don't waste your money, your frugal, your thrifty and you live within your means and prudent with your investments. with your spending patterns you can help but be successful as an individual in business and family and destination. this is kinda like a ben franklin economics concept. unfortunately we've lost the supply side view of the world but now it's more consumer

normally as the expansion goes the economy -- slows a bit. instead, we may have an acceleration, and the reason for that is somewhat in this chart. before the election. we have the 6% increase. they call that the trump bump. whether president trump really gets the credit for that is up to future historians, but there is no doubt that that was -- coincides with the election of president trump. why might the economy react that way with an acceleration? the reason, i think one that you could give, is that with the election of donald trump, we had the promise that hillary clinton's foot would not be replacing barack obama's foot on the economy's regulatory brake. promised donald trump was a stop to the regulatory outpourings under president obama and those regulatory outpourings had a distinct chilling effect on economic growth. we saw in the second quarter the economy accelerated up to 3%. you don't want to make too much out of a single quarter from number, but that's a very promising figure and a strong and balanced representation of the economy

>> if they back off they're likely seeing something down the road for the economy. that will speak the markets for sure. that is really the risk. that would be from my perspective, only thing that gets them to slow down here. they're focusing on right areas, certainly balance sheet. one-half of the dual mandate, inflation, we spent four 1/2 trillion dollars trying to get some form of inflation. obviously didn't work. so let's walk away from that at this point. trish: i am glad you brought that up. heather, elaborate on that. 4.5 trillion is a lot of money. a quarter of the size of our annual economic output. that is a lot of money. it didn't really get us anything. if anything, heather it, contributed to the hourglass economy we find ourselves in, where those on top they benefited because if you have capital, you can make that go to work for you in and markets have been on fire. and those on the bottom, increasingly have seen government handouts. those in the middle, heather, they have been squeezed and i don't think the fed program has done one darn thing to help th

why might the economy react that way with an acceleration? the reason, i think one that you could give, is that with the election of donald trump, we had the promise that hillary clinton's foot would not be replacing barack obama's foot on the economy's regulatory brake. one thing donald trump promised was a stop to the regulatory outpourings under president obama and those regulatory outpourings had a distinct chilling effect on economic growth. we saw in the second quarter the economy accelerated up to 3%. you don't want to make too much out of a single quarter from number, but that's a very promising figure and a strong and balanced representation of the economy, so there is some hope that will continue for a while. it will not go on indefinitely, however. ellen blinder -- alan blinder, the former fed vice chair, recently wrote an article that expansions do not end just because they get tired. just because you have run out of spring. they can't because something's happened. that is what we will see again. sometimes there is bad luck -- a ma

thoughing the notes out of the economy was a hit. t how it would work, those two effects seem how it would work, those two effects seem to have slowed the economy marketly. it. was expected to be over 6%. marketly. it. was expected to be over 696. let's talk about uber, a change of leadership. they‘ve had a difficult past, shall we say. they might have thought the new ceo would bea might have thought the new ceo would be a new chapter and beginning, but already they‘re having to talk about already they‘re having to talk about a bribery allegations. how is the company? well, it's too early to blame the new boss for that one t happened before him. this reminds me, when i was at school we did a history course on the age of expansion, conquering mexico and carving out an empire for spain that made individuals wealthy. if you think about internet companies that have done well they‘ve been like that. once it was conquered the spanish sent in lawyers and surveyors and governors and started running the economy properly and that seems to be wh

we have confidence in the outlook's for the real economy. if a are shops -- shocks, negative one were sufficient. we recognize that we might be unable to pursue objectives by cutting the federal funds rate prepared told be resume reinvestment. other tools we used in the financial crisis, for guidance would also be available -- forward guidance would also be available. the fed governor recently gave a speech in which trend inflation appeared to have moved lower by around .5 of a percentage point. do you agree? what would the fed need to do to boost inflation if it has fallen? you think the inflation softness to prove transitory. compared to three months ago, how firm is your current that?ation it will remain transitory what implications with that have for monetary policy if it is not? inflationm trend usually a variety of statistical techniques that can be used to extract a trend from a series. exactly what that means is a statistical thing. there are methodologies that we show the modest declines in recent years. after all, we have had a numb

the economy could overheat. inflation could rise more quickly. that is something that would occur with the lag, and that would force us later on to tighten policy more rapidly than would be ideal, and we could risk a recession if we did that. there are risks on both sides of our objectives, and most of my collins and i have concluded a gradual path of rate increases while constantly watching incoming data being open to revising our views on the outlook, and revising our expectations is the best way to manage that set of risks. reporter: thank you. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2017] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] ? >> c-span's washington journal, live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up monday morning, we will look at the weekend had in washington with reporter chelsea schnell and andy kearny. funding the children's health insurance program with paul howard. watch washington journal live at 7:0

have confidence in the outlook for the real economy. there are shocks. if the negative shock to the economy were sufficient, we recognize that we might be unable to pursue objectives purely by cutting the federal funds rate. that is why we say explicitly that we would be prepared in that event to resume and other tools that we used in the financial crisis for guidance. it would also be available to us. a chair yellen, there was speech recently that said inflation moved by about half a percentage point. do you agree? and what was the fed need to do anything, to boost inflation is it has fallen? that, you said you expect inflation softness this year to prove transitory. compared to three months ago, how firm is your current expect tatian that this will remain transitory? what implications with that have for monetary policy if it is not? chair yellen: the term trend inflation usually, there is a variety of statistical techniques that can be used to extract a trend from a series. is aly what that means statistical thing. there are methodolog

america, the dollar really is not what is driving the economy. tain, a lower sterling has a safety valve for demand. i'm sure the bank of england will think carefully about this. there is a lot of uncertainty around brexit. having a policy of weak sterling is probably not a bad idea. anna: you were calling on the japanese to be more american in their consumer habits earlier on. consumer strength continues to be there in some cases. the retail sales number was more than forecast. is not just around prices. it seems the consumer isironment in some places untouched by all the political concerns. these are relatively low expectations we have on consumers these days in terms of consumer spending. it'se u.s. -- in japan partly about consumers but it's also a lot to do with trade. think about starting at what it does to trade. in the u.s. or even in japan. you veryvid, thank much. stay with us, david kelly. majorer rueck, the second reinsurer to tell us they will miss the profit target. this goes back to both the hurricanes and the earthquake losses. tha

as the economy resumes in building gets underway, will likely bounce back. based on past experiences, these effects will unlikely alter the course of the economy beyond the next couple of quarters. of course for the families and communities that have been devastated by the storms, recovery will take time. on behalf of the federal reserve let me express her sympathy for those who have suffered losses. in the market job gains average 185,000 per month over the three months ending in august. a solid rate of growth that remained well above estimates of the pace necessary to absorb new entrants into the labor force. we know from timely indicators such as initial claims run employment insurance at the hurricane severely disrupted the labor market in the affected areas. payroll employment may be substantially affected in september. meanwhile, the unemployment rate has stayed loaded in recent months at 4.4% in august was modestly below the median and therefore participants of its longer run normal level. participation in the wake it has changed little both recently a

with that be problematic for the economy? >> look, that is something that is a matter for congress and the white house to decide. you know, i have put 40 field principles about fiscal policies that i would reiterate that one of the problems that the american economy suffers from along with many other economies around the globe is slow productivity growth and i think it would be very desirable if fiscal package had the potential in it to create incentives that would raise productivity growth. we do face in terms of longer-term deficit as the population ages in unsustainable debt path that will require, i believe, some adjustments to fiscal policy and i hope congress will keep that in mind, but beyond a few core principles it's really i don't want to weigh in on details. >> when you testified before congress last july, you said that you may be prepared to take enforcement actions against wells fargo if it proved to be appropriate or do you think it's appropriate and what actions could you take? >> so, let me say that i consider

as a whole and when they don't add anything to the economy they take money out of the economy this book explains how the financial sector and real estate fire sector takes money out of the economy instead of putting it in and why were the rich are getting so much richer without producing anything and without hiring more labor right so what are the alternative economic models out there to the junk ones that you're calling out in the book or is it just a matter of cleaning up what we have and stop stop using phony baloney language. well believe it or not the classical economics of adam smith john stuart mill. thorstein veblen all in the nineteenth century they had a very clear idea of how to run an economy you want to provide you want to manufacture more you want to protect the environment which they did discuss but you don't want people to get a free lunch but today's economy is all about getting a free lunch and it's about really making capital gains rich people don't make a profit that's leona helmsley principle only the poor people pay taxes rich people make capital gains trumps give

would that be problematic for the economy? r yellen: that is a matter for the congress and the white house to decide. i have put forward a few principles about fiscal policy that i would reiterate. one of the problems the american economy suffers from, along with many other economies around the globe's productivity growth. -- around the globe is productivity growth. it would be desirable if this package could create incentives that would raise productivity growth. we do face, in terms of longer-term deficits, as the population ages, and unsustainable debt pass that will -- unsustainable debt path that will require adjustments to fiscal policy. i hope congress can keep that in mind. i don't want to wait in on details -- weigh in on details. >> from "marketplace." -- mightthat might be be prepared to take enforcement actions against wells fargo if it proved to be appropriate. do you think it is appropriate and what actions would you take? chair yellen: i consider the behavior of wells fargo toward its customers to have been egreg

what is happening in the u.s. economy is the number of companies in the stock market is about 50% since 2007. 50% the number of shares has dropped 50%. so so-called stock market boom is a massive shrink, and i think that the -- a key problem is the lack of any global money that is increasing financialization of the economy. almost 30% of corporate profits are now in finance. from this massive $5.1 trillion a day of currency trading. >> host: how does one buy a car with a bitcoin? >> guest: one can buy a car by -- with a bitcoin. you -- i sure a lot of cars have been bought by bitcoin. i don't know which consider -- i think maybe you can buy a tesla with a bitcoin. some companies announced they'll sell them. you can convert your bitcoins which have been appreciating recently, to dollars. that might be a good thing to do, and purchase a car with it. >> host: could anyone buy a bitcoin if they had the resources. >> guest: anyone can buy bitcoin. >> host: how many dollars it would tike buy a bit coin today? >> guest: today, o

and the effect it would have on a the government and economyagineo those that are popping upoo the economy in the short period of time to scale down the troops and i would say it appears to have weathered the worst of it it hit bottom a year-and-a-half agoat a in the economy is beginning to rebalance to reflect the important thing is putting into place a national procurement law as the president is engaged in running the economy also he was very much involved to shape those assistance programs i would say there is little government capacity grew overwhelming the government and the country so there were a lot of parallel structures areng now the government has donei th to braying more assistance so with is a coordinated process i can say from my experience now we have been involved for more than 10 years the one thing it does not make it into the headlines is the capacity ofthad the government in the ministry of education so we are often told by the government, slowdown we're in charge did not ready to move to that district so we follow the government. in char this is much more aligned with

the economies around the world are in good shape. for the first time in over 10 years we have synchronized growth around the world where all the major economies except for the u.k. are growing. they are not overheating, they are just growing. so what do we see out of washington? we seed gridlock. but it's an interesting other side of the coin. we used to sit in business and think well unfortunately what's going to come out of washington will penalize business in this country. now we are hopeful what comes out of washington will help it and that will help the economy. everybody likes to think we are in this year 7 or 8 of this recovery, and i think they mistakenly think economic recoveries die of old age. what they die of is overheating. but we are not overheating. with good policy moves out of washington we can sustain this for a long time. maria: you see a tax policy lifting more boats fit materializes. glenn youngkin: we are right after the elect there was the so-called trump bump. and the markets ran in expectation of stronger cor

the economy grows. with more money in their pockets, people make the decisions to pie a car, to buy a house, to buy the new washing machine, to spend money on things that they had been afraid to spend money on, because of the stagnant economy over the past eight years. we'll unleash growth like we haven't seen since the 1980's. when in response to the reagan tax cuts, we had 5% and 6% after that tax cut. in fact, tax cuts stimulate the economy, which lifts all boats and increases receive news. so, mr. speaker, we have to tackle this challenge. now we know there are a lot of special interests there, because when you simplify the tax code, what happens? all the lobbyists come knocking on our doors and theyanto maintain their little piece of this tax code andhe tax code runs through thousands of thousands of pages. you know, very knowledgeable people can't even fill out their tax returns anymore because they are so complicated. mr. speaker, the best thing or the worst thing, the funniest thing that i hear i

with gdp but as th is the bigget sector of the economy? we hear all the time consumer spending because it represents 7% gdp so the consumer drives the economy. consumer spending is the fact. its capital investment, it's the supply chain. the gl is kind of a supply-side. we have our own statistic as a supply sider. the gdp is more on-demand as the consumer government demand and business demand. but the supply chain it turns out that business spending as a return of gross output is 60% of the economy. so, i argue based on the structure production business spending is the elephant in the room. gross output measures all spending activity not just final output. what is the supply-side? for >> the >> the key to prosperity is innovation, on-chip viewership, savings, drift. i think ben franklin said best. one of my favorite founding father said there's three virtues you can be successful in my first as a business and a nation those principles are industry, thrift and frugality and prudence, prudent behavior. you can't help but be successful this is

you build the economy by investoring in the middle class and build the economy outward. so doctor, offer suggestions for other ways we safeguard against corporate tax reform that overwhelmingly helps corporate america at the expense of american workers. >> sure. i think you want to look through the lens of if you're doing business tax reforms and business tax cuts, do they encourage more investment here? because that's the one channel that's going to primarily -- that will have significant benefit for workers. and you want to de-emphasize the cuts that are going to accrue to shareholders and not provide that competitive advantage. i think the other is you want to think about other aspects, you know, beyond the business tax code. there's been a lot of discussion about expanding the eitc, the earned income tax credit. things like that that could provide support and encouragement to a broader array of workers, boost take home pay. make them more attractive to employers. and i think that's very worthy to consider as part of an overall tax reform package. >> thank you. thank y

sachs chairmann lloyd blankfein talking about the economy transformation. now go away. s bloomberg. ♪ ♪ yousef: welcome back to the best of bloomberg markets middle east. more now from the global is this forum in new york. the ambitions for reform in the middle east are bringing new opportunities for global investors. eurasia group founder hosted this discussion with some ceos including the goldman sachs ceo. , we are goingours to effectively takes capital out of the country and invested outside the region, because that is where the growth was and that is where the demand for capital was. i would say one of the big changes, some of the things vision 2030, and obviously other countries around the region, is that there is a lot of growth and investment the in done in country. ,art of that is in the energy and opportunities presented by the population. some of it is compelled by how to put the population to work and how to take account of the demographics factor. there are so many people, , so a lot ofobs the countries in the region wants to invest in their own countries an

we are not talking any real disaster for the economy. l us anything about the strength of the you want? -- of the yuan? also, what it tells us about the pboc tolerance for other currencies. we have had an astonishing month from -- for the yuan on so many levels. despite on what is happening just over the border in north korea, investors have been piling in. it might start to hurt in the export story. perhaps a stronger currency is hurting a little bit at the .argins in terms of the exports at the same time, policymakers are probably ok with this level right now after we get past the congress. -- right now. after they get past the congress, that may change. the currency's performance has been quite remarkable that from our google. it is a perception of being a haven of sorts. anna: thank you very much. let's speak to thanos vamvakidis and get his thoughts. at bankad of strategy of america merrill lynch. what you make of the recent ascent of the chinese currency, the strength of the you want? -- the strength of the yuan? thanos: there are n

the u.k. economythe headwinds from brexit? if the world is performing well, that could play to the u.k. strengths. guest: it might paper over some of the cracks. while the rest of the world is accelerating, the u.k. is not. -- a lot ofer people will say the manufacturing sector is doing well because sterling is devalued. we would put it differently. u.k. exports have not been particularly price elastic. it is quite minimal and a low relative to others in the world. that suggests it is not so much to do with sterling's evaluation but increasing health and robust health of eu. anna: speaking of that relationship, to be get to parity? that would be a nice touch for the eu. guest: that would be quite interesting. for us, looking at sterling on a medium-term perspective, in all but the very worst scenarios, but tactically it is hard to call direction. anna: william, thank you very much. he stays with us. you should be aware we will be joined on the surveillance program by the chairman of our bx. that's fro

but what happened as a result, the economy soared in the mid to late '60s, as did the stock market. so, jfk proves when we cut taxes, we incentivize people and put money in their pockets and empower them. great things happen and prosperity is lifted for all. particularly the middle class. liz: let's not forget at that reagan was irish and handsome, too. >> the evidence is there in the chart, but i will say this in response to steve, that, of course, you were cutting from a much higher level of taxation than we have today and even as we consider it high taxation at 39% for an individual. people would say, my god, that was 70%. so that's a big difference. but, here is the thing. the package that's on the table right now, does it put money in the middle class, man and woman's pocket? and i think that's the problem democrats are going to have. everyone on this panel will say democrats always say, this is going to benefit the rich. but actually, this package does benefit the rich and i think that democrats are going to have to push against president trump and say, you've got to do less f

but to get the economy and the growth rate back above 3% people did not think we could get that for a while but we are at 3.one. can we go higher? that means $3 trillion. net more than pays for tax cuts. >> if you cannot guarantee doesn't that contradict the premise of this plan?. >> our plan is aimed to make sure we have middle-class americans a tax cut. that is what we're spending all over time and doing and we have a lot of tools at our disposal. >> as i said this morning and i will say again i said it this morning and will say again i cannot guarantee that. you could find me someone in the country remember we have 50 states all different types of structures i guarantee you to find someone. >> walk us through the time line with the confidence for what is happening so far this year i on capitol hill. i am very confident so if you look at chairman brady right now and then to start working and they continue efforts -- every day. that they will get through the tax plan as quickly as they can. and hope to be in the senate in november. why am i here? just for this reason. to rewrite the

yousef: the economy is not moving as fast as people would've hoped yet. this up on the bloomberg, as well, to show what has been happening. shows you what has been happening with qatar and oman relative to the emerging markets index. stands, isn't that going to hurt consumer confidence? isn't that going to cut out quite a bit from the bottom line? guest: i think it has already been expected for a very long time. countries with lower gdp per capita in the cases of oman hassaudi arabia, i think it a bigger impact than the countries like qatar, uae, and kuwait where the gdp is some of the highest in the world. i think it will vary from one country to another. with regards to the stock market, one thing to note is for the gcc equities, it is very heavy on financials and real estate. in the case of the uae, it was clear that it would probably implemented on real estate transactions that it would not be of limited on real estate transactions -- it's would not be implemented on real estate transactions. plays?how about consumer that: the only countries are releva

keeping the french economy moving. manuel macron‘s government lay out its first budget, but will it bring prosperity to all? you can waffle on twitter. the mo—characters rule has been relaxed, but will this help the flagging social media giant make a profit? welcome to world business report, i'm sally bundock. we will have more in the programme, including twitter expanding the number of characters, but i am still at 140, number of characters, but i am still at m0, i number of characters, but i am still at140, ican number of characters, but i am still at mo, i can hear you breathing a sigh of relief. reforming the spluttering french economy was one of the most important pillars of emmanuel macron‘s election campaign. today his government gets the chance to flesh out some of those changes, with its first budget since he took charge of the world's sixth—biggest economy, and macron has a big task on his hands. france has a stubbornly high unemployment rate of 9.5%. that is double the rate of the other big european economies

i think when you say the economy to the president, he thinks the government economy. when he says it to me, i want it to be a private sector market economy, because i think that's the only way to build sustained growth. they need to be growing at 6% to 8% per year. they won't do that without the private sector, so everybody should focus on the private sector solutions. and if you want to have progress with the taliban, you need to talk about economic diplomacy, and jobs. that's not going to happen unless there's a private sector to hire people, and to train farmers not to grow poppy. >> i'll just end and say, certainly the objective of the government and the donors is the right objective. private sector-led growth. and targeting high value exports into the region. the real question is, is the strategy right and are the implementing mechanisms the right ones to achieve that? and that's obviously something that needs to be analyzed and discussed further. >> i would say, at the end of the day, there's no question that economic issues are ultimately what will determine th

there was a lot of uncertainty in the economy because of actions the president obama was taking so long progressive lines as opposed to conservative economic lines which the business community would have preferred so with respect to tax, energy and regulation there was great uncertainty in the business community about where the government was going and what kind of obstacle it would become. we tried to convey the message that if the government would provide positive certainty, that we get we could rise out of the recession, that we were still in the recession until june 2009 so we were out of it technically but i don't think people for years that we were out of it really. if youwant the kind of dynamic economic growth you're expecting rising out of a recession, you have to do positive things and give the committee business community certainty you are not going to hurt them. >> what are some of the measurements that go into the effect ? >> the one that we focus on work tax reform, energy policy, regulatory reform and reduced government spending. this was the only trunk agenda item we did

the. economy of. free about the big you know green by me to defend it because it will says. the boy. was the same. according to census the research institute in italy national funding to the regions linked to social policies was reduced by approximately eighty percent from two thousand and seven to two thousand and fourteen. and. you're a member of the matter of the bones if we got it right it is the austerity that decides how many pounds should be placed in a room of four hundred dogs. is the. total. listen i want to say. that. it's. ten. to. ten. minute. don't. you know i get it going to. normal. trying to set some limits so it is not all just saw him into inclusion of the audience. and it's only going to be used as a check or. daily to stay here to live you found your answer kind of to herself. some want to be one of them on his old son mean to knit gentlemens into n.z. you need to punish and continue to want an enormous. damage control chunk you will fall out of this. shell somebody. into studies on. what we have learned is that if you are in a situation of low growth even the re

it depends on what the local economy can provide. and the policy direction that it can facilitate.g more on our domestic growth, on how the changing.conomy is our domestic economy was the largest -- we have received more than $30 billion. , we havetor funds stress testing. we take into account volatility. it is not going to affect the stability of our numbers. >> you have taken into account a possible and expected stronger u.s. dollar, especially as the fed moves to normalize. how do you expect that is going to play out in the domestic space? >> we don't expect much. we have extra reserves in terms sentiment or appetite of investors. we have buffers. our concern is always to keep this stability. our foreigning exchange flows. a look at whate it is going to communicate is that going to change or help you tweak your policies? >> our current account has strong by 21%. reduced. deficit was they doubled 200%. we have a large economy, the largest market in the middle east and north africa region. it is mostly young people. gdp growth has become export driven. we are reliant to strengthen

they are the engine of the economy. >> they pay 17% to 19%. e devil is in the details. >> i thought i won with the asterisk but you had real numbers. you won. >> you get the last word, alyson. >> he loves the magic wall. >> a.c.! >> who are the winners of the president's tax plan? our panel will debate all of that next. kevin, meet your father. kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin trusted advice for life. kevin, how's your mom? life well planned. see what a raymond james financial advisor can do for you. whoamike and jen doyle?than i thought. yeah. time for medicare, huh. i have no idea how we're going to get through this. follow me. choosing a plan can be super-complicated. but it doesn't have to be. unitedhealthcare can guide you through the confusion, with helpful people, tools and plans. including the only plans with the aarp name. i i. that's how we like it. aarp medicare plans, from unitedhealthcare. >>> president trump hails his tax plan as a big win for the middle class. that was the promise. critics say not so fa

>> well, i mean we're talking about the economy but in a horrible scenario with north korea that increased defense spending might get decided for us i certainly hope that's not the case. >> neil: well that's right. with everything going on in the u.n. in town next week but i think you touched on it as well i think charlie you did this notion that we always talk a good game on getting spending under control but we don't. and so the government will continue to grow and grow and i don't know if that's a good longer term for the economy. >> well to ben's point listen we have a dell and it dated military. >> neil: it's posting at $600 billion a year. we spend a lot. >> neil: not enough, neil. >> it's horrific. >> neil: we're misusing our funds. >> adam brings up north korea and the reason it's so realistic what could we do to them honestly when you think about it we barely have enough ships out there to patrol the waters of the world but having said that though, you still and i think ge rri is right leadership had seven or eight years to have all of this prepared. we knew the american public wa

too kashkari talking about far, too fast could be harmful to the economy. olutely. 14 days to go until that fed decision, no change expected now. was september being penciled in a couple of months ago. this is chart 6833, nearly the open upon us in shanghai. onshore chinese stocks have come to life, demand surging. subdued for were much of this year. now they are getting into the groove, you could argue. foreign demand in september, foreign investors purchasing 15.5 billion yuan of mainland shares to the stock link row graham. ons is showing what is going as we show the premium of a-shares over h-shares getting broader and broader, widening with these mainland stocks. amongst it all, surging turnover as well. looking forward to a negative day in hong kong. japan and south korea trading for a bit now come and this is what we have at the moment. it is a listless session. losses .3% with minor for the dollar against the yen. up next, treasuries getting a boost after fed speak. ♪ rishaad: there we go. hong kong: 9:20 nine a yang nearly the start of the session.

the amount of impact we could have on the u.s. economy, changing the forward outlook of the united states, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and i would never miss that. reporter: does that mean that when you're done with tax reform, you will no longer be at the white house? mr. cohn: there are many more once-in-a-lifetime opportunities at the white house. reporter: and the child tax credit, which we have heard ivanka trump talk about. can you give us any kind of description on what that would look like? what is the goal? mr. cohn: i think we said in our outline yesterday, the existing childcare credit is refundable and will stay refundable. the additional money we will put into the credit will be nonrefundable. we want to encourage people to work. the size of it, we are still working it out with the outer range in mind. we are working on delivering a large middle income tax-cut to american workers that they rightfully deserve. reporter: one department says the plan will add $2.2 trillion to the deficit. mr. cohn: we think they are

at least a year yet a lot of the economy. the only and the most likely to blow up if he's going to talk to me. was that daniel could have. to do the same. then you do and he's welcome by the people. to see what you are doing a choice. he did before the kilometers i mean. the school pretty clearly going to me about they. don't mean it can be beautiful be going. down when . i want to be. but is it true that the national debt is a problem is. probably. too early imagine that the good woman is that we need to invest in things that you don't have it was only you know yeah yeah they were and. the. problem. that they solved. with the would go i mean. put a sovereign currency is a currency that is under the control of its issuer so there is an important relation. shift that exists in any sovereign country that has a sovereign currency the relationship is that the government collects taxes in that currency spends in that currency and has a monopoly over the ability to create that currency so in canada and in the us in australia and bri

inflation was a bad thing for the u.s. economy in the 1960's and 1970's, and i have no doubt, no problem believing that the conquest of an -- the conquest of inflation was necessary to the revitalization of the u.s. economy. bob has done a great service and telling us about this episode in a uniform and persuasive way. that iconclude by saying agree completely with bob when he writes that the lessons learnt from the conquest of inflation should not be forgotten he writes that the lesson from the great inflation is that inflation should be nipped in the but. i hope that this lesson will be remembered if the time, in the not distant future when we have to slay the dragon of inflation. thank you. [applause] thank you for these observations and for asking for more evidence. before i give bob the opportunity to respond, i would like to open it up. we have 25 minutes before we moved to the book shop for .igning and refreshments please start with introducing yourself into the microphone. manager and the prospects group. i used to be exec

. >> back in 2009 there was a lot of uncertainty in the economy because that action obama was taking which i think that business community would have preferred. there was uncertainty in the business community with the government was going so we tried to convey the message to rise out of the recession so we were out of it technically but i don't think people thought it was part of the reality. so we have to do some positive things to give the business community some certainty. >> those that we focus on one of our energy policy and reduce government spending. the only agenda item we did not hit was health care reform we did not know what the negative impact of the economy but we covered against energy policies. >> can you give an example you like to see as a former or corporate ceo?. >> was said california at the time so we could talk about one-tenth of the problems encountered but on the federal side to put in place new requirements to unionize with the blacklisting legislation and regulations to require attorneys to disclose those discussions with their employer clients during the att

the domestic economy remains lackluster. rising given that inflation is in the mid-30% range and interest rates are very high. >> let's talk about that inflation. how harmful has that been to domestic demand? >> that is the factor holding back stronger growth. once you start to see inflation start to dip lower, that will come later this year. you will see the potential for rates to come lower. for the time being, it is the domestic side of the economy holding things back. i think that inflation factor is a critical factor. yousef: i want to dig back in the pmi figures. signaling the sharpest improvement of business conditions since 2015. there are some downsides. more importantly, what seems to be happening, this squeeze on margins. tim: input costs have been rising, but as prices have not been able to rise by as much, profit margins are getting squeezed and that accounts for companies and firms being cautious about things such as planning, employment and the outlook in terms of trying to manage those costs. output has been m

in houston which is a $500 billion economy and how it affects the greater economy over 20% of the nation's refinery ability has been shutdown. the colonial pipeline that goes from houston to new jersey that carries most of the gasoline is not even able to run at times because there's not enough fuel coming from lake charles into houston. that will affect goline prices andilrices. the iediate lossn houston is going to be more o a regional event as far as job loss and as far as economic destruction. overall though once you start seeing fed's step in, the state step in and insurance step in, you will start seeing this slowly recover. what happened in new orleans is a bit different because you had people leave and didn't come back. it's not apples-to-apples comparison because in houston you have a much greater diversity when you talk about the river oaks and post oaks districts, this place is going to recover at that point and will start to see a bit of an economic boost. >> we have seen an economic impact from florida to indiana up into the northeast by gasoline prices going up nationwide up

that is the level that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on se it appears to be quite low on historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise much further to get to a neutral policy stance, but because we also expect the neutral level of federal funds rate to rise somewhat over time, additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion. even so, the committee continues to anticipate that the longer run neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades this view is consistent with participants' projections of appropriate monetary policy. the median projection for the federal funds rate is 1.4% at the end of this year 2.1% at the end of next year and 2.7% at the end of 2019 and 2.9% in 2020 compared with the projections made in june, the median path for the federal funds rate is essentially unchanged, although the median estimate of the longer run normal value edged down to 2.8% as always, the economic outlo

the u.s. economyls over to the point where the ecb is getting to the point where it is having to do with the fed is doing now. i wonder whether the gap year is too big. that is going to have a big effect further down the road. bhanu: i would not say all central banks because for instance, canada -- guy: and the bank of england -- and the bank of england is moving quite quickly. that's right. inre is no sign of inflation europe either. there has been a stellar economic recovery. exactly right. therefore, there is much more to go. i think if you look at the unemployment rate, there has been much greater movement within the ecb -- within the eurozone recently, but the levels are different. that matters in terms of inflation generation. what is completely wrong as the backend of europe. that is where the ecb's actions, including taper, are going to have a substantial impact, because the ecb is a larger part market and the eurozone treasury market. you can have a much larger impact if the ecb begins to tap

and the global economy. but i would like to see more evidence again, if bob is going to push this line, that it was the conquest of inflation that brought about globalization and all of the good and not so good things that went with it. and by the same token, i would low-inflation,me and the prosperity that bob says followed from it, for the troubles that are now upon us. bob writes that the prolonged prosperity, the continuous economic growth that went through to mild recessions, helps despond a cup -- complacency and carelessness about the consequences of increased complexity of international finance. culminating in the present turmoil. here again, my view is that we are prone to showing consistency and carelessness about financial markets every few years regardless of the chain of , events that preceded it. yes, in this case it was maybe the prosperity that made us complacent, but i am sure that if you look through the history of financial panic and financial crises you will see that there were just as man