economy. not that the obama administration didn't want a stronger economy, they did. but they always wanted something else more. the other thing always one out. -- won out. we now have seen strong evidence that the arguments were valid. the first thing the trump administration did was to suspend regulations in the pipeline of various agencies. congress got into the act of repealing the regulations they were allowed to repeal that were particularly onerous to economic growth. the trump administration out with reforms of their own that we are seeing unfold. all of these in detail were important but what was really change inwas the sea the psychology of the economy. we see this in business confidence and consumer confidence, which has shot up as the psychology, the background psychology in our economy has changed. the economy is growing very robustly. it has showed up in the labor markets with a very low unemployment rate hovering around 4%. it ticks up and down depending on the month, but it is below what the congressional budget office would consider the long-term full

the day. he's economy is on to see. the bullets trying to save money and keep an eye on our finances defeatist is that i have to come up with a plan b. i don't know what i'm going to do. to the extent that. the exchange rate will soon return to a reasonable level and i do not worry good given yup that in the states has to understand that it won't get anything from tacky with pressure and with sanctions on the most it. out on social media or economic terrorism. goetic and just once we capture them we will impose unnecessary punishment. is treason and it. also coming up tonight can making it illegal make the controversy around it go away across europe governments are banning the muslim headscarf or burka in public in one german region lawmakers say the ban should not be limited to what adults wait. it's because this time only twelve minutes they say you have to believe you had scott i say no it's my choice you can't tell me what to do you know my parents you don't have custody of me and you can't make my decisions for me.

and now the economy has accelerated markedly. we grew at 4.2% in the second quarter, .irst half of the year there was some expectation that the economy was reporting to somewhat of a fiscal sugar buzz and it would slow down going forward but apparently not so. the atlanta fed is telling us they will expect the third quarter to keep coming in at 4.6 percent. if it keeps going this will become the great acceleration. this far along, you don't expect an acceleration but it isn't a surprise. we talked about the reasons for the great meandering for many years. the obamaabout how administration policies was a drag on the economy and if they would remind, the economy could pick up steam and we go about having regulatory debate in a stronger economy. not that the obama administration didn't want a stronger economy, they did. but they always wanted something else more. we now have seen strong evidence the arguments were valid. the first thing the trump administration did was to suspend regulations in the pipeline of various agencies. and a

at the moment and peter which specific sectors of the german economy seem to be making the most progress at least in the second quarter. trade it's all about trade really for germany in fact the figures that have just come out of showing that exports are at the center of the german economy we knew that already but the germany set to post the largest ever trade surplus for twenty eight hundred some two hundred ninety nine billion dollars in trade surplus made in germany is a stamp that sells around the world book it's putting so much of not of on trade isn't everybody's cup of tea in fact we've seen that upset donald trump it's also upset the european union seven point eight percent of germany's economy comes from exports now under the rules that are put in place to try and keep everything on an even keel by the e.u. you not supposed to exceed six percent so they've been getting it in the neck from the european union as well from brussels from the european commission as well as the criticism they've been hearing from donald trump over the atlantic but what we have seen in the sec

more aggressively to avoid the economy overheating? the other question is, if unemployment continues to fall and inflation doesn't continue to rise, why is the fed tightening as aggressively as it is because they don't need to? he said basically it is a matter of risk management, he said. . you want to steer down the middle and avoid the economy overheating, but avoid putting the brakes on, as well and therefore, he says the fed's gradual path of rate increases is pretty much what should be done. yvonne: still ahead as we review the week on "bloomberg best," jeff stallman explains how tax reform and tariffs are connected. plus, we are at jackson hole, speaking with four fed presidents about monetary policy and the economy. >> there is no reason to challenge the yield curve at this time. there is no reason. yvonne: next, more of the week's top business headlines. world leaders facing political pressure. australia's malcolm turnbull feels the heat in a leadership challenge. >> it has been an extraordinary period of political turmoil. yvon

reason why the us economy is doing so well. turn for the better when he was elected, a that is rarely mentioned, coming out of the white house at the moment. a big programme of quantitative easing, banks getting into shape after the financial crisis. a couple of things he has done, since then, with pay creation of cash back to the states. and tax reform. in terms of momentum, he has created is a momentum, he has created is a momentum, that some of that was already there as he went into power. we will have you back in a few minutes' time to talk through the newspapers. we are talking about which you think is the best airport and the worst airport in the world, think about that. rightio! we'll be delving behind the headlines this week. including venezuela's floundering economy and an historic day for the s&p with our very own andrew walker. you're with business live from bbc news. let's talk a little more about luton airport. it has been named as the worst in the uk for the third year ina row worst in the uk for the third year in

structural reforms to the economy that's something that. could have been doing for years but he hasn't done and. what we saw on friday we saw today as well start markets around the world taking a hit because of what's happening in turkey but the real losses were in the stock markets of emerging economies and thinking about brazil south africa is that where the real contagion danger is turkey as you said was seen as one of the shiny examples of an emerging economy moving forward and now we're in a rushing backwards right a substantial part of the contagion risk lies with an emerging economies because we've seen that model before one one currency of the emerging market struggles investors tend to take their money out of other markets as well we've seen the south african rand tumble today ten percent down on last week we saw the mexican peso down today the indian rupee hit an all time low so yes there is the contagion risk there because investors feel their money is safely put elsewhere another risk is of course the exposure of european banks t

the economy is good. as accelerated since the election here's what i will offer home sales and the housing market is under pressure in the last six months. i will speculate that perhaps the consumer now, because of higher interest rates, is not buying the house anymore not buying the big ticket item, but juicing regular consumer goods. if the target ceo believes this is as good as it gets i wonder how much better could it get i see us printing a 3 handle on gdp. i can't see the economy accelerating from here there are too many headwinds coming down the pike after some of this sugar high from the tax cuts begin to wear off maybe in mid '19. certainly the my is not close to recessing right now. i think that comes maybe 12, 24 months from now. >> what we're talking about, the two views you two just expressed is what's probably playing out in the market now. mark talking about how he doesn't think it's a sugar high. paul saying he thinks it might be peter, how do you weigh in >> the economy is good the third q

i think powell is signaling he sees the economy pretty much the way the fed has seen the economy for the last year or so. and so, the market should basically take it as a given that what they are expecting will happen. , our marketd kohl participants overly concerned about a yield curve inverting? um, well, they may need to hike it. but there is some over concern. when you have the inversion, it have some time until we the negative effect on the economy, so it takes a year's time. is it really the right time when we are close before the inversion already priced in? and position yourself in a risky environment. the goal for the treasury yields selling equities. this is a bit too cautious in this respect because it takes much more time until you have the yield curve conversion and really see the negative effects on the economy. it takes about a year. they may be too early to worry. >> gina, talk to me about the economic expansion. i feel like the statement seems very bullish on the economy. but it doesn't seem to address some of the late cycles -- the late cycle concerns. gina: that is

looking ahead, another big week for the economy. retail sales, consumer sentiments, industrial production due out this week. each one of those an important gauge of the strength of the economy under president trump. we saw friday morning unexpected global events like currency crisis, a currency crisis in turkey can jult the u.s. markets as well. let me bring in chief economist and managing director at chase, anthony chan. give me your take on what's taking place on turkey. friday we had a lot of volatility because of the turkish lira plunging. do you expect that to have an impact on other markets and the u.s.? >> well so far it's contained. but obviously if it gets out of control, then it could spill over through other emerging markets. but so far there are a lot of emerging markets doing quite well. we're seeing in fact the emerging markets in asia still doing quite well in general. we see some possibility that brazil is going to recover. so i don't think at this stage we can really complain or worry too much about it but certainly

is expanding the chinese economy is cooling and the directi of the world's second largestld economy impact investor across thegl e. eunice jung is in beijing ♪ ♪ >> chinese authorities said that the economy remains steady in july, but the numbers did missc exions and also indicated a further slowdown in the economy. now looking at numbers, year to date, china fixed thero investmenth drop by more than expected to 5.5% and industrial output remains steady at 6% and retail sales posted growth o 8.8% and this is down from 9% in june. the weaker data is alreadypt prg authorities to indicate that they favoro- prowth policies and to express infrastructure stment and to pick up in the second half and this is part oft the governm overall policies to support the economy and china faces serious, complex, eternal ask domestic environment and china needs to assess the impact with its trade frikds with the united states. even with the cflict there's en a debate as to whether or not china will wanto continue with what we've been seeing and the clampdown on interest rates and the reversal in policy

i don't look at the structure of the u.k. economyand see something in the eurozone that i want to be involved in. i think the eurozone will be looking at the structural reality of a poorly constructed monetary union. tom: we will continue. kallum pickering and james athey. first word news in london, sebastian salek. >> president trump about is that he will not make concessions to turkey to win the release of the detained american pastor. erdoganthat president wrote an agreement that would have led to the pastor's release. it will be day four in the trial of paul manafort. jurors are considering 18 counts of fraud and tax aversion. secretaryh foreign will call on the eu to impose new sanctions on russia. jeremy hunt is in washington, where he plans to draw attention to the poisoning. the u.s. has already imposed its own sanctions in the matter. the self-proclaimed will hold wall street has agreed to start repaying victims of this boiler room fraud. pay out $28rd will million for the sequel to his willful wall street book that was turn

going to hurt the soaring economy. resident miscalculated on this one? >> i think actually trump is winning on this trade war with china. i think you are seeing china starting to show signs of real panic. your general point is right that if this escalates, it's bad for the economy. there's no doubt about this. if trump wins and gets real concessions and capitulation from china, which i predict is going to happen before the end of the year, then i think the economy is even stronger. yes, this is a risky strategy. it's a high-stakes game of poker trump is playing. i think he will win. >> can you help me understand why? you are saying this. my guest last hour who is a businessowner, supportive of the tariffs about to testify before congress tomorrow said this. you are predicting. can you point me to one piece of evidence that shows you that xi is bending? >> well, look at what's happened to the chinese stock market. it's down 20% this year. you are seeing a lot of disinvestment in china. the growth rate has been cut in hal

will not overheat nor will the economy slow at this particular neutral rate the economy can just humalong it's a very idealistic notion it is the ultimate target of all central bankers worldwide for them to find that perfect not too hot not too cold rate palettes of what they stated that he would prefer that that neutral rate be closer to three percent which implies at least another four more rate hikes in the current tightening cycle clearly some of the more devilish people on the federal open market committee and others that would prefer interest rates to stay low or would rather that neutral rate be a lot closer to two percent and president trump is made it pretty clear that he thinks rates should stay low but you know that comes from his perspective right the president comes from a real estate and business and so of course he likes lower rates we'd all like to buy things that cheaper rates but what are the reasons the monetary policy reasons danielle not to raise rates. well there are reasons not to raise rates if you if you fear that the economy is slowing and powell brought tha

this year and the effects can be felt nationwide it's a catastrophe for turkey's population and the economy the already high inflation rate is getting even worse imported goods are getting more expensive by the day if they're even to be found new stock at last for pharmacy on a bill and to move to peru relief among staff is palpable the labor is lost in value against the dollar has made some products like this medication to fight high blood pressure hard to come by. the first sign that something was wrong was that we were no longer getting discounts on large orders. right now there are around one hundred types of medication that you can't get. the lira is plunging practically by the minute leaving the people of turkey to watch in despair as their currency nosedives president rich have aired on holds the united states responsible for his talk is a trade war albeit one he says turkey will win. that the mood on the streets though is less defiant. should listen the typical good of the less i don't know that i need to finance my child's education i don't know how i'm supposed to manage my pensio

south africa's president cyril ramaphosa is staking his reputation on trying to revive the economy ahead of next year's national elections but last week's plan to overhaul how land is owned in the country has alarmed some investors although apartheid ended almost twenty five years ago south african society remains one of the most unequal in the world and has made matters like land rights a burning issue for me to miller has more from stellenbosch. slivers of light shines through the simply furnished home of. she's been living on this land illegally for three weeks there are dozens more roughly built homes dotted across this hill in still and bosh near cape town an area known for its affluent vineyards and estates. it's because of our government that we are here we have us for lent before but they have not helped us we have to make a lot of norris and fight to get this land here the court has ordered that no more can be built and those that are on occupied be destroyed but as night falls people scurry to bring in more building material. is the believe this is our land that was taken from

the german economy grew by zero point five percent in the second quarter. unexpectedly strong despite international trade conflicts. experts see the strong domestic economy which is supported by both private and state consumer spending as the driving force. investments have also increased. the italian government blames the motorway operator out just about a petty tahlia for the bridge collapse with at least thirty nine dead in genoa and wants to revoke their license interior minister south vini criticised that the company had collected billions of euros in tolls but did not use the money as planned the government is considering fines of up to one hundred fifty million euros. vienna has replaced melbourne as the most livable city in the world at least according to a survey in the british magazine the economist each year it compiles a ranking of one hundred forty cities assessment criteria our standard of living safety traffic and stability this is the first time a european city has led the list. modern robot technology here it's not used to produce devices b

we have the strong economy. what's not being reported by the media is the chinese economy is in big trouble. their stock market is down 20%. you're seeing disinvestment in china. this could plunge china into a recession. >> in terms of plunging into a recession there are other concerns but i want to speak to those in a second. but first i want to get your take on this. we hear stephen touting how strong the economy is, we're basically at full employment. you said in you didn't think the economy is booming under obama, you don't get to say it's booming under trump. >> if you look at the overall trend -- and what matter is not any one month but the overall trend -- we've been adding 200,000 jobs a month for the first 19 months of trump's presidency. we added about 200,000 jobs a month for the last 19 months of obama's presidency. on average it's the same economy. it's a steady improvement so the level at which we are today is higher than it was at the end of obama's presidency but the rate of improvement is roughly

is the one g7. economy did actually is slowing gdp growth. everyone else is accelerating. >> you have to take this in the context. it's the rate that would be just --ht if your actual capacity if you are at full capacity. there's not a lot of spare capacity in the u.k. economy right now. we have had a recovery that's almost as long as the u.s. have had a slowdown since the brexit vote causing uncertainty. it could be that there isn't an enormous amount left for the u.k. economy. they do have to start moving back even if they have the brexit uncertainty and even as they are reducing the potential growth rate. alix: the bank of england raises rates 25 basis points. the long-term neutral rate on the high-end is going to be 3%. on the next three years the neutral rate coming in at one point 1%. when i try and gauge the frequency of rate hikes with that neutral rate short-term and long-term, are we at a one and done? are we at a gradual? they haven't pushed back from the market pricing which has one rate hike a year. very different from what we are

the u.s. economy'sansion is already the second longest on record and the commodity and labor cover thes are risinraand the fedel reserve is poised to raise rates for the eighth time in three years. add to this the facug thatt and september are historically two of the weakest mon stocks especially in midterm election years and perhaps it makes sense that they might pause or pull back a bithis month. seasonal factors could drive large market moves on their own and the forecast for corporate profit his continued to move higher in recent weeks which should be reflective in stocks and the market has managed to absorb plenty of political noi and trade frictions while keeping the upturn trends intact. even if august brings a late wall storm warning to street, it's too soon to say the short for theg full market itself. for the nightly business report i'm mike santoli. >> it is time to look at some of the upgrades and downgrades. electronic arts were upgraded to buy from hold at argus research. the analyst cites

well, i think the main issue is that the economy in turkey has been running too hot. een growing too fast, as you said. inflation has been very high. the current account deficit and external financing required in taking is too large for the current environment —— in turkey. so i think the idea of this new economic model is the right one. turkey needs to grow more slowly in order to grow sustainably. the question is whether, as you implied, whether the president of turkey is really on board with this idea. and why would he not be? where would that be a clash between what he believes and what the economy needs? well, i think there has been a long track record where president erdogan has been in power in one way oi’ erdogan has been in power in one way or anotherfor almost two erdogan has been in power in one way or another for almost two decades. it started very well, in what has happened over time, as he has accrued more and more power to himself, is that he has insisted on running the economy very hot, and also insisted on a rather unconventional view of how things wor

the economy is clearly not working the way we think it should. soledad: and is it a mystery that could be solved when you say, well, the people who are running the companies are keeping the wealth in the company, or keeping it with shareholders, and not -- it's as simple as "they're not putting the money into wages." nell: i think it is that simple. this is something that has been a product of about 40 years of policy that has benefited largely shareholders, large corporations, ceo's, at the expense of workers and small businesses. but we could do things differently. it's a choice. these aren't the inevitable results of natural laws. soledad: often when we talk about the economy, or we talk about jobs, everyone refers back to coal miners, when i was reading a statistic that said there are more people who work at arby's than are coal miners in the united states. why do we often focus on that relatively small number of workers, versus retail workers who's, a much bigger population, spread across the nation -- and they are really struggling? nell: i

it will have an impact on the economy. it already is. seeing it in the data and i'm concerned about the direction of the trade policy of the administration. they can do some things to get deals done, so the outlook is a mixed one. we are happy about regulatory and institutional reform but we are not happy about tariffs on the american economy. david: thank you so much for joining us. that is u.s. chamber of commerce myronive vice president brilliant. more sanctions on russia and retaliation for the nerve attack . live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ david: the united states announced a new round of sanctions to take place august 25, more retaliation for the nerve attack in england earlier this year. what are these sanctions? .ill: these are really limited they really target things that barely exist. foreign aid to russia, limited sales in arms and military parts. it will not be the kind of sanctions that has a big impact and we are seeing there has been very little market reaction so far. david: what is coming next, because there is

so fundamentals in the economy are very strong. corporate side, it is even more strength. we saw corporate earnings upwards of 20% year-over-year. that was the second quarter in a row. not only did we see that, we saw strong sales growth. costsu know, you can cut and may profit that make money, but you can also sell more. and that is a very bullish indicator that we are far from a downturn in either the economy or the market. david: remarkable earnings season, no question. if you look at the slope on growth, it is coming down. let's put a chart up. i am not say it is going to go negative and starts drinking, but -- and start shrinking, but how concerned should we be about the change in the slope of corporate earnings growth? nela: we think this market still has a lot of gas in the tank, right? there will still be growth, it is just not going to be the kind of growth we have seen in the past. it will be slower growth, slower returns. that is why this is an opportunity to look at your portfolio, position it in a way from something you

the russian economy really struggles. likes of the russian economy to be enormous when you look at the size of the country and the power it has got, but in terms of financial power, the russian economy is similar size to the likes of italy. when you look at what vladimir putin is doing, he's almost cosying up to the turkish politicians and saying, well, look, you're having similar issues with the us as we are, we can help you. but the stark reality is, there's no way russia can have the financial power to help turkey as much as the us can but both have these sanctions and the sanctions are causing issues in russia. what the story is saying, and it's really hitting vladimir putin's popularity in russia. has there ever been a time when politics and economics have been more intertwined? normally the markets ignore anything political, but at the moment... they can't. donald trump in the white house, vladimir putin, with everything that's going on, this is the most politically driven market i've ever experienced in my career.

is it all about the economy? >> it will be a major component. ut it easily, it is results versus resistance. when you look at what the president is doing on the economy, more americans are working now than ever before. their paychecks are going up. we can also look around the world where, just yesterday, ae president signed contract on rebuilding. see and time again, we can the president made promises on the campaign trail and he is delivering on them. david: how well do you expect to present a playoff the elections? he serves some distractions from the economic message. there are other things he wants to tweet about or talk about that cause more baster than the economy does. >> he will play a major role, as will the vice president. i was with the vice president, campaigning in new jersey. the president and the vice president are bringing people out. they are getting them excited about the message that republicans have, in some cases helping to raise money, which they will need to carry that message forward in november. but also getting the base

how do you wait the u.s. economynk it can withstand further rate hikes, we have seen seven already. christopher: the fed will continue on the path it started 18 months ago. the minutes last night i take the view that they are not trying to give away too much or too far forward but they have been very transparent. they are trying to go back to a neutral level of interest rate, not only short-term but long-term rates. interest rates are still historically low and the economic data supporting the economy is very robust. , showing aumbers robust employment picture. one of the consequences of the tariffs will be to increase inflation, not decrease it. i am of the view that interest rates could go up further and stay higher for longer than what is being priced in. chart.et's if this -- look at this chart. more uncertainty as we go into 2019. is to bee extent that expected. do you think the fed will hike too much and will kill the rally in stocks, kill the growth in the u.s.? to moderatey want a, the idea is to have balance

the economy was number three. how does the incentive about the health care affect the economy -- uncertainty about health care affect the economy? guest: in terms of afternoon shift -- entrepreneurship, we were hearing, i was listening to it isnversation earlier, imposing a new costs on businesses, telling businesses that if you have employees employed for so many hours, you have to provide health care, that for businesses, a lot of large firm -- the real impact is on the smaller businesses who are looking to expand beyond the threshold. cost.a huge on the other hand, there are people benefiting from the affordable care act, people are getting subsidized health care. there are pros and cons of the affordable care act. if you look at it from a business perspective, from a small business perspective, it is imposing new costs on businesses that could impact start operates. host: mark? guest: i do not see that happening. the affordable health care act was a big improvement, got millions of people health insurance. you

will not overheat nor will the economy slow at this particular neutral rate the economy can just hum along it's a very idealistic notion it is the ultimate target of all central bankers worldwide for them to find that perfect not too hot not too cold rate palettes of what they stated that he would prefer that that neutral rate be closer to three percent which implies at least another four more rate hikes in the current tightening cycle clearly some of the more devilish people on the federal open market committee and others who would prefer interest rates to stay low or would rather that neutral rate be a lot closer to two percent and president trump is made it pretty clear that he thinks rates should stay low but you know that comes from his perspective right the president comes from a real estate and business and so of course he likes lower rates we'd all like to buy things that cheaper rates but what are the reasons the monetary policy reasons danielle not to raise rates. well there are reasons not to raise rates if you if you fear that the economy is slowing and powell brought tha

one called the economyhis words not mine, of course, before election was won, so i think to me the big fear as investor for 10 years talked about effect of ultra low interest rates we have seen interest rates come back down today as -- mentioned keeps fed at bay a period of time the trend toward higher interest rates economy hot enough to withstand it. >> 10 year coming back down from 3% now 2.98%, on 10-year yield when we come back more of this all-star cast on july jobs' report after this short break. back in a minute. >> tennis channel court report special presentation for fox business 2018 edition of the citi open family aaffair. >> punched into elite 8 emotional straight sets win sasha closing out 7-5 in second first time brothers meat in main draw at world tour event. >> [cheers and applause] >> elsewhere northbound two seed packing bags taken out by fellow american wimbledon, jr., champion first ever victory over top 10 opponent. >> champion hall of fame open, also out, went down to alex. and don't f

would be to take direct control over the running of the economy and including the central bank he made that clear internationally as well as domestically say he's arguing that i'm only carrying out what i pledged to do and what i was elected to do but the problem is that international investors of which the turkish economy pen don't want a central bank to be independent and till that happens there's going to be no return of confidence and with that they little hope of more money coming into the atoki economy to sustain it and every year the turkish economy needs at least one hundred billion dollars maybe more of renewed long and new money to sustain the economy and that will not be coming until the central bank is declared independent and there have been rumors circulating around global markets today we've had economists actually saying out well that a bail out by the international monetary fund may be inevitable we've also had the turkish government today indicating that it may try to develop closer economic ties with russia. worst case scenario move away from its dependence on the we

what does that mean for the u.s. economy? at the stock markets in what is going on there. all three in the red. the dow donate 10 current s&p 500 down nearly three. the nasdaq down nearly two. you are watching "fbn:am." just another day on the farm. or is it? this farmer's morning starts in outer space. where satellites feed infrared images of his land into a system built with ai. he uses watson to analyze his data with millions of weather forecasts from the cloud, and iot sensors down here, for precise monitoring of irrigation. it's a smart way to help increase yields, all before the rest of us get out of bed. kristina: welcome back of the sketchier caught up on what's happening now. the dow jones done 16 points. s&p 500 to .5. nasdaq three quarters of a point partially due to trade uncertainty. top administration officials devising new penalties against hackers that are and will trade in the u.s. electrical grid. hackers working for the russian government claimed hundreds of it tons last year in a campaign against the energy

when americans feel good about the current state of their economy the index of u.s. consumer confidence prize in the rose in july despite analysts expecting a decline the positive trend is partly due to from past job gains and rising after tax incomes which lifted consumer spending in recent months but the optimism only reflects americans view on the shore some economic outlook consumers remaining concerned about the long term development and do not foresee growth accelerating. well i asked a wall street correspondent younes quote if u.s. consumers a right to be confident in their economy well it looks pretty good to them specially when you look at the job market and even if their wages are not really increasing that much at this point but there was also a survey out where people got how confident they are to find a new job and this survey actually hit the highest level in about seventeen years and then also consumer confidence is close to an eighteen year high so especially the labor market doesn't look quite promising and then on top of it we also had the tax cuts

the u.s. economy has always been dynamic. i did the following exercise, i said, since 2000, what percent of our jobs are in new occupations and i do find new occupations as ones that the bureau of labor statistics recognized for the first time after 2000. they included desk top publishing, when turbine operators, numerical equipment operators, aerobics instructors, web developers, some of these positions existed before 2000, they were not thought important enough to include. 44% of job growth and stu thousand have been in occupations that the bls did not recognize as of 2000. that is slower pace of change in the preceding four years so the u.s. has always owing through a dynamic sample -- cycle where the nature of jobs is changing and it is the case that the new jobs tend to pay more. 44% of the job growth i mentioned, they pay wages on average that are 80% higher. there are many forecasts about how artificial intelligence and robotics and automation more generally are going to affect jobs going forward. the oecd has an estima

one thing here, the jeff's comments about the european economy versus the u.s. he dollar is the real key. differentialste do not begin to decline and they continue to widen, there will be more and more dollar strength. and that is going to help or affect trump policies, which will put a drag on growth, which would come later in the year, but most likely into 2019. economyif the european does not revive and they keep rates low, the dollar strength will become more of a topic. scarlet: we will be looking for that and i am sure we will see it in the president's comments. erd, thank you for joining us. we also thank michael mckee. jeff rosenberg is sticking with us. more of "the fed decides," after this. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: this is "the fed decides." i'm scarlet fu along with tom keene. we are back with jeff rosenberg from blackrock and before we let you go, we need to talk about where within the interest rate curve rates are heading higher? in the belly, the long end or the short end? jeff:'s much of the action has been about the yield curve, but today is