concernedfactor is about the health of the global economy, not much the domestic economy. host: where will things be headed in the next weeks and months? what should people be thinking about? up fore rates are going homeowners and put this in perspective. guest: the federal reserve have made clear it will keep raising rates. we are in an environment of higher interest rates. if you're a borrower, you will pay more on your monthly payment for a new car or house. that will continue moving up. what will happen in the stock market is much harder to predict that the best advice if you are an investor, have a long-term strategy and do not pay too much a digit to what is happening on any given day. host: what about the condition of the u.s. economy? guest: seems to be in good shape as the head of the federal reserve has called especially bright moment for the u.s. economy. things seem to be going forward steadily and smoothly. and one of the longest economic expansions and american history with not a lot of signs of trouble on the horizon and growth has been stronger in the past,

ideas will boost the italian economy. s will boost the italian economy. so i think it is unlikely that this budget plan might boost the italian economy. in fact, this budget plan entails higher spending, especially for poor people, but it is extremely unclear if any of these reforms may increase italian growth. the italian economy is suffering from low productivity, for at least ten to 15 years, and nothing in this budget plan is trying to address this problem. on top of this, the world economy is clearly slowing down, so we are in a more negative scenario, and so i think the outcome for italian growth is definitely negative. so the outlook for the economy is negative, as we heard from the central bank as well, and they are on a collision course with brussels. you don't believe that their budget plans will help boost their budget plans will help boost the italian economy. so given all of that, the outlook isn't good at all, is it? i agree, i don't think it is good at all. the italian economy is slowing down. we are assisti

the u.s. economy. the u.s. central bank is data driven the mood noise around the policy will not deter them. if you look at the strength of the u.s. economy at the moment their measured rate hikes are the right policy that the u.s. economy needs. inflation is on target they don't need to bring inflation down so they can take their time. they can stabilize inflation at the level where it is now. the kind of rate hikes they mapped out for the remainder of the year, one more, maybe three more next year looks roughly right for a former central banker like myself that seems to be on track, in line with how the u.s. economy is moving should there be a soft spot -- and there's quite a risk that the current trade discussion will lead to a soft spot in the u.s. economy in the fourth quarter, maybe going into the first quarter of next year, they will react to that weaker data i don't think they'll necessarily call off the rate hikes, it might have an impact on timing. so i think they'll be data dependent and do

nothing over the past two weeks suggests that the economy has gotten worse. it suggests the u.s. economy is doing very well. it gives us confi suggest once you get through gyrations thed bull market sho continue. >> a lot of people are watching who invest forncome whether fixed income portfolio or in equities of some kind. rates are rising. that is causing stock prices to godown. what is the average investor to do with that kind of scenario? >> the rate rise has given svestors who have invested in fixed incomeurities a chance to invest at higher yields and higher returns. for the stock market anytime you have a large move in interest ras like we have seen in the last couple of months it takes time for the market to digest it and adjust and reset. i think for investors the way we is anof it, this opportunity to add that to equity market risk. even if you areoong for income, there are opportunities in divide-paying stocks and the correction has given an opportunity to reduce valetions and mt a little more attractive innt certain seg >> should investors prepare for more volatility? f

let the economy grow. but you won't miss what you cut in spending you don't have any good ideas how to get the economy going. . >> they are relying on investment income when you make substantial cuts? . >> the most important thing is to see what we could first cut the construction budget there are things we can put off. at the capital construction project going from 90 million to over $300 million and it's a great project. but there are some opportunities to push more of these decisions out to the future but we can also reorganize but it does mean we can take that initiative and then repurchase it so it gets more support to the local governments with 300 million that we leave on the table every single year those are the solutions that we need now. >> and then you said. >> is started with the capital fully supporting that. manasseh part that i struggle with. . >> but mark needs to go back to check the minutes of the oversight committee meeting when they stood up in a public meeting and supported what is goi

—— having on the chinese economy? which rang some alarm bells, today we saw the people's bank of china change its policy to help chinese banks lend out more money and therefore boost the chinese economy. what is the picture looking like? clearly this has come at a very difficult time when china was already facing a much wea ker when china was already facing a much weaker and to the year in terms of its domestic economy, and so far, although the trade frictions are causing some impact if you are looking at sentiment, on actual trade figures, actual net exports, there has been a drag on the economy. you know, earlier in the year, the actual impact is really, for example, further depreciation expectations for the currency. the immediate impact is not actually on the trade volumes, as such. that is in the months to come. you say that is to come in the months to come, it is to come in the months to come, it is the same for the us as well. at the moment the us consumer is not really feeling the impact of this, which i imagi

you are in carthage and the gdp overall economy. whether it is labor unions or the government all those places have a great value in this society. >> you make an important point is there anything we can do to improve the stability of the discourse of the public life today? >> i don't have an answer to that i have to be honest. i can tell you my own limited experience i got elected governor of massachusetts and my legislature was about 89% democrat and it wasn't lost on me that i would get nothing done if i spend my time attacking the speaker of the house and the senate president because any veto would be overridden by a voice vote as they were regularly. so i said to my team and chief of staff, will you stand up and be recognized. thank you. [applause] >> we got together and said to our team if we disagree with the democrats, let's point out why we disagree. but do not under any circumstances attack the democratic leadership in the legislature. and we didn't. one day i got a note while i was in a meeting in the team from one of the t

you need to go with the economy. we have a nine sector plan that includes four centers of excellence making the universities the centers of economic development. science, cybersecurity, renewable energy and value added agriculture with those strategies, we can diversify the economy. there's no reason they can't beat the renewable state in the country. >> a simple yes or no question that affects families across the state. would you support a raise in te minimum wage? seem that i'm on the record 110,000 get an immediate raise. we know that across the country that right here in new mexico is stagnant. >> ten and then i want to raise it to 12 so that you got sustainable growth for minimum wage so that they keep up with escalating inflation. >> i would not support it. if you look at the study in washington they do the minimum wage there and it's actually hurt people at the bottom. the people at the bottom of the latter are making less and working less hours and so if you want help people we need to grow the economy. there

they did nothing to grow the economy democrats did the job we will keep doing the job to grow the economy and the best way to do that is middle-class tax cut cuts. barletta: i didn't hear what policy it was that waited eight years to create this economy but i do remember president obama saying 2 percent growth get used to it that's the new norm and then what will this new president do wave a magic wand? he must have a magic wand because we are in the middle of the greatest economy. >> i will let it go. go ahead. >> is there a specific policy you would like to point to that your party could claim as a real reason? casey: despite the denigration from politicians in washington who go to the special corporate interest the recovery act is the reason we began to recover years ago with the longest period of growth in the history of the country we got the economy out of the ditch they did what they always do they try to cut programs of medicare and medicaid then they give a tax cut they gave $2 trillion jacked up the debt for the american people and gave away to the top 1 percent. >> they cut fou

the's talk more about economy. voters and impressions of who deserves the credit, that can be a deciding factor in this election. we have president trump claiming all the credit for the current economy. president obama has come out and said, it is all the result of his policies. because this matters, what is the truth? and please back it up. rep. barletta: i would like senator casey to tell us what exact policy it is in there in ministries and that was responsible for this. regulation? obamacare? what was it they did? higher taxes? i can't find what policy it would be. the economy took off when we rolled back taxes. we allowed businesses, we gave them more of their money. we rolled back regulations so businesses can actually compete here in the united states once again. because of this administration, our policies, the u.s. has once again become the most competitive country in the world. businesses are moving back here. we have a shortage of employees. i don't know what policy it was in eight years that could have f

first, let's look at the demand side of the economy. consider the recent benchmark revisions for the household savings rate. based on the revised data now show the household saving rate is running at 6.7%. this revised estimate is double the previous estimate. the higher level of saving suggests that in contrast to the previous economic expansion when households were borrowing to maintain consumption while income growth so -- slows, they are can increase consumption gains. to me at this date in the business cycle a historically high household savings rate is a tailwind for the economy, not a head wind. recent reductions in personal income tax rate are also a tale wind for the economy. productivity and investment data provide another point with which to assess the demand and supply side of the current expansion. we have seen some pickup in productivity growth, from a very depressed space. by contrast at a comfortable 01,-07n both the productivity growth was slowing rather -- to its contemporaries speak. dish this hasnt coincided with a re

watch that for indications of the health of the economy. dex and more housing data with new home sales out. in earnings, at&t, ford, siriusxm radio, visa, ups reporting quarterly numbers, one of the most important dow components reports, that's boeing. that will be a market mover. microsoft reporting after the close kick off big tech as well. on thursday, durable goods orders are out, initial jobless claims and the beige book and pending home sales are out. more big earnings news then. alphabet, amazon will report earnings, they will likely move the economy and move markets. so watch those. american airlines, southwest, dunkin' donuts, chipotle, merck, comcast and snap reporting quarterly earnings as well. on friday, consumer sentiment and earnings from colgate round out the week, it will be a busy week. join me sunday on sunday morning futures, a big show on the fox news channel. house judiciary committee chairman bob goodlatte announced an interview with rod rosenstein, he's going to talk to us about that and republican senator lindsey gra

about the economy. i had to shout it from the rooftops when bernanke got it wrong, it almost destroyed the financial system and powell is making the same mistake we won't get an actual recession but the universe of the companies doing well are growing smaller. i'm not here to be an economist but here to help you make some money and preserve your capital. i wouldn't be concerned if not for the trade war against china. i think the president is justified to governor at the chinese for years and years of trading abuse. but context matters. it's one thing to have a trade war when the world economy is on fire, something different if the world economy is slowing something the imf told us last night when it cut the global forecast down from this year to next i thought that was a wake-up call what's strong now, employment, may not be quite so strong six months from now. oh, i'm worried. again, i'm not turning against the whole stock market there's still plenty of areas to make money and starbucks rallied off the

i think for now we should see the u.s. economy continue to outper form because of the domestic stimulus. we should see the trade wars put some downward pressure on the chinese currency. so i think the dollar might still have some room to run here in terms it of overall on a trade-weighted basis we could see some appreciation. guy: in terms of kind of where policy ends up, where do you have the terminal rate? where does this process end up? how quickly do we get there? at the beginning of the conversation you sounded pretty comfortable with a payroll number that, as you described it, pretty goldie locks right now. how long will it take to get to the terminal rate? do you think the risk lies, the upside, downside, currently where the market has it priced? julia: i think the market, in terms of where i look at the world, it is not far off the mark. i think what we're going to see as the fed continues to march forward is some tightening in global financial conditions. we've already seen some slowing in the global economy. and really t

that could slow down the economy. lear. >> you have been through a few different financial crises, you have seen a lot of different cycles. we're in a position now where something like 13% of the deals this year had that. how worried should we be about that? people say it's nothing like 2008, but i'm sure in 2008 it's nothing like the last crisis. >> the debt coming in is roughly what we had before the great recession, not that much higher. but the terms are much more favorable. before the great recession, 30% of debt had no coverage. -- covenants. now it is 80% to 90%. if there's a slowdown, the debt can be worked through. >> canada. it would be remiss to ask you about cannabis. does carlyle have any interest in it? >> we invest in canada, we like investing in canada, we are trying to buy another company in canada. hopefully we will win it. canada, in my view, is a good place to work. -- invest. you have a very high gdp relative to other companies. best countries. -- countries. in the end, rule of law, transparency, i

the economy is robust. deration of independent business release a report at dawn saying how incredibly encouraged those people employing a little over 50% of all the workers in america they are not listed companies. they don't trade on the markets but they are the back bone of the u.s. economy so the real economy soo seems to be doing well. the inflationary pressure, the fed looks at expectations. the expectations are rather mild right now. still around a 2% level. and then we have to see what happens in terms of total comp, which as we know is rising significantly more than 2% but the trade stuff hasn't kicked into the system it probably front he had loaded a little economic growth due to inventory build. we haven't seen the inflationary impact yet i want to make one other comment here because we are all interested in what happens in markets. the fed gave our nation and the market operators a huge gift and that gift was given when we expanded the balance sheet by $1,000,000,000,750 billion by last week of f

the economy is doing well. while europe has been having its problems, emerging markets have been getting it, more downside than outside. high-yield is kind of the sweet spot. the equity market was wasting away. , you are having steep correction in equities spilling over. i think to the extent that this recovery, this expansion continues, they are likely to reemerge as a sweet spot. >> it would be disingenuous of me to say that credit has come out completely ok. isuess the broader point that the outperform is a state of the worst part of high-yield. the broader point is that leveraged loans have remained. to your point, if there are people watching this program right now worried about the equity market volatility, is your message them ultimately that the messaging credit is not one of doom and gloom? >> leverage loan is the hot area. the value is not necessarily there and that's going to be theweak undervalue. in the meantime, the technicals are very strong. it has gone from a wholesale chief fixed income market

at certain points in the market gets ahead of the economy. ints is the other way around. when interest rates move significantly and things are changed. the play plate under the market shifts. and you get elevated levels of volatility. they don't sell stocks. i think we are clearly oversold. the markets have now come back up. let's talk about the economy kick. that is gonna be a tax on the computer -- on the consumer. and businesses to do business. is that a real threat to the economy in your opinion. they are always a threat to the economy. the two year treasury is up over 200 basis points. it starts to have an impact on economic activity. reducing the size of their balance sheet. it tends to be 12 to 24 months out. i think were starting to see this tighter fed policy. as we are getting all of these earnings out this week. it's a fourth-quarter guidance. especially from some of the industrials that had sparked a little bit of fear out there. we can have him as an michael, these have really got beat up. now in the correction territory. when you

the economy was gaining strength not losing it. a thoughtful fed was not about to tighten not with china teetering. why was there fear and confusion at the time? i think investors weren't ready for either flash crash the government put in what was known as circuit breakers, supposed to cool these declines. but they created a false sense of security. even if they failed to work properly on both occasion, and did very little. when you hear talk of circuit breakers, don't believe t fear can't be legislated or regulated out of the market. always be people who react horribly after a horrific event. what is the baottom line, you might have an incredible buying opportunity. you have to figure out if the selloff is related to the fundamental economy. nobody made a dime panicking but boy, or boy, did they coin money taking the other side of the trade. going to jeff in florida. >> caller: it is an honor. >> you are very, very kind what's going on? >> caller: is there an equation, a formula or rule of thumb when to take a percentage of profits

criticism the argues the economy needs a lift biggest member state germany has warned rome to be careful with debt and moody's has cut a hole in his credit rating italy's prime minister has defended the deficit fostering budget insisting his country needs a new approach to stimulating the economy because previous efforts have failed in the second quarter growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly two years in. the middle of a big target draft is well constructed and well formed the provisions for growth are very good in respect to what we are doing at the moment. come to his pledge that next year's deficit won't exceed two point four percent of g.d.p. but that's triple the previous government's forecast the italian leader said it would fall below two percent part two thousand and twenty one and that the national debt to g.d.p. ratio would decline as well he also dismissed any suggestion that italy would leave the european union or the euro zone. read my lips. no way to get it alexy there's no way to get out of. many italian support runs tough stance against brussels and hope the increas

we are glad when the economy grows. but the congressman and his party did not lift a finger to grow the economy. in fact, most republicans were voting against the recovery act or arguing against the recovery act. they did nothing to grow the economy. democrats did the job. we want to keep doing a job. the best way to do that is to give the middle class a tax cut. >> you can rebut. rep. barletta: i did not hear what policy it was that waited eight years to create the economy that is soaring right now. i do remember president obama saying, 2% growth, get used to it. that is the new norm. what is this next president going to do, wave a magic wand? he must have a magic wand. we are in the middle of the greatest economy in our lifetime. sen. casey: i will let it go. go ahead. >> is there a specific policy would like to point to? take a mr. barletta on that challenge? a specific democratic obama policy your party might claim as the real reason the economy is doing so well? sen. casey: despite the denigration from republican po

fundamentals of the economy are doing really well. still, job growth is happening. unemployment is low. 3.7%, the lowest since 1969. the president when he left for erie, pennsylvania, about 20 minutes ago did not take any questions on this but again senior administration officials saying don't panic. this is just normal correction for a normal bull market. melissa. melissa: all right. thank you for that, edward. going back to the market, james, what do you think? >> i think danielle's point, i hope we don't hear anything from jay powell. there is no need for the fed to comment on down day in the markets. i think it really would be another healthy sign if he doesn't say anything we've moved out of that kind of postcrisis era where the fed was always in charge and constantly intervening non-stop for years and years. i think we've moved back to a real economy and this isn't any issue for government intervention. melissa: yeah. gary -- >> not yet. melissa: president's reaction, you know, sounding very calm. i wonder the impact on the midte

showing signs of hitting the economy. can see that in the indexes for export orders on the pmi readings. oil indications are that there's pressure on the chinese economy. they make this step they have, encourages banks to lend more. we're not yet at a hard landing. it's more about managing moderation. francine: so investors, just to make sure i'm clear, investors are assessing efforts by the central banks. are they worried the economy is slowing more than expected? are we going to see loosening of monetary policy? enda: i think all of the questions when it comes to the veracity of chinese data, and the debate about how steep is the slow down, is the full picture getting out. there's no question the data shows moderation. going forward, that's expected to go under further pressure as trade war accelerates. that's why most economists and market analysts say policymakers will take more steps. it will take a while to flow through the economy. the banks have to respond and lend the money. that's why you'll see more getting don

changes the climate even as climate change affects the economy nordhaus shares the prize with paul m. romer of new york university romas work focuses on how innovation drives prosperity the problems of developing countries and the distribution of wealth. both laureates of advice governments and international financial institutions in the past they both welcomed the prize which comes with a million dollar check things almost didn't quite work out. to harm called morning and i didn't answer because i caught up with them call how i wasn't at work and expecting their progress. awarding the nobel prize for economics sciences to two economists who put environment climate change and social justice of the center of their research is a clear signal to us president donald trump has removed the us from the paris climate accord. accepting the prize on the telephone poll roma was at pains to encourage governments businesses and households to tackle global warming themselves if it's higher and we talk about. produce carbon there's some trade are but once we start to try and reduce carbon emissions

one has to assume the economy and a look ahead to have the -- a look-ahead to have economic projectionscember might look is a key factor there. >> the dow jones industrial average adding 400 points. after yesterday, tumbling 608 points. of course, the s&p 500 gaining 1.9%. with most of the big sectors advancing, led by technology with those big earnings on top. >> relief in the tech sector was really short-lived. amazon down more than 8% in premarket trading after reporting a second consecutive quarter of sales below analyst estimates. the world's biggest online retailer also missed revenue targets and google's parent company, alphabet, also missed earnings targets for the third quarter. overall, is there a link between the two companies? why did they both underwhelm markets? >> the link between the two of them is that revenue growth seems to be slowing a little bit, but they are compensating with really impressive bottom lines. both amazon and google beat expectations on a net level but missed on the revenue. for google, particularly, the miss on revenue was quite small, one hundred mi

is enjoying the goldilocks economy. recent rise in bond yields affects the outlook instead of any allowed inflation. let's bring in another perspective. this is the president from st. louis fed bank. great to have you. do you agree with the recent rout in the bond market? i don't see very much inflation pressure for the u.s. economy. the u.s. is growing pretty rapidly now, but that is likely to slow down in 2019. bond market overall knows that and has that in mind. at this, almost existential conundrum of why wages are moving in the relationship we expect them to. this is really painting the picture that despite the difficulty in providing quality labor for small businesses, this is an issue the fed wage growth tracker continues to look sluggish. suggested thel wage labor market relationship has flattened out. you think it has broken down? is that a fair characterization? james: it is something i have been emphasizing is the celebs curve is empirical relationship and that has not been reliable in the last 20 years compar

economics prize goes to two scientists from the united states who explain the interaction between the economy technological innovation and the climate and brazil's presidential election is heading for a runoff what's on board those mines well pretty much every aspect of the economy. i'm christopher caldwell welcome to the program and this year's nobel prize for economics has been awarded to two researchers for their work on climate change and innovation us economists william nordhaus and paul romer receive the award for integrating innovation and climate with economic growth the royal swedish academy of sciences said along with the prize the researchers were receiving nine million swedish kronor or one million u.s. dollars you can almost prize is not formally a nobel prize as it was created by the swedish central bank in one thousand nine hundred sixty nine in memory of alfred nobel. well for more i'm joined by martha overcome on my colleague from d.w. business model william nordhaus and paul romer are the winners tell us some more about them we'll you know tell us from yale university often

but not really the economy. how long can it last? atnk frankly we forget asia is much more insulated than 2013 to the globe's economy. that is very important. domestic demand is increasingly important for this country. i would argue we could be possibly surprised, given that china -- will help many of these economies. maybe i would argue that christine lagarde may revise for the world, but asia will be more shielded. things with china similar. -- domestic demand playing a big role. they are not falling behind the curve, a question mark, for india, but the rest may no longer lose capital and attract more because of the difference between domestic demand and other em economies, such as latin america or even the middle east. i am not so negative on ema's. on the contrary, i think we could see a positive reaction in the market. that region is more insulated than the rest of the world to what is happening on the matter of trade, because trade so far is for asia itself and chinese themselves, to a large extent. haidi: we are going to leave

the mid-terms. but nobody had an economy like this. we have the greatest economy we ever had. the numbers came out about job openings. record numbers. trish: your critics on the left would say that's a result of president obama's policies finally taking effect. what do you say to that? president trump: if the opposition got into office instead of me. they were going to put more rules and regulations in, they were going to do things with taxes that would be a disaster. raise taxes. we had 4.2 last square. had the opposition gotten in, you would be at minus 4.2. you would be so low you would have job numbers that would be so bad. you would have companies flowing out of the country. now they are flowing back into the country. they want to be back in the united states of america. whenever i hear that i say isn't it sad they can get away with that. we had the slowest recovery in history since the great depression. and we were heading down. take a look at the early numbers. the early numbers or the late numbers for him. we were heading down, 1% gdp. we were going down and we were goi

he said seems like the economy does better under democrats. that's what the figures show and that's what the years since then have shown. of course, president obama had a better record of net job creation than president bush. and that's simply the reality of the situation. in terms of the mobs not jobs, just remember the sub text of that is. in addition to the economic facts, the democrats are a diverse party. the republicans appeal to older whites and the mob thing is an attempt to alarm those voters about the prospect of nonwhites and imgranmigrants. >> i want to go back. the data is irrefutable. yet to john's point, the republicans have it in terms of branding and what getting elected is is selling. so what do democrats need to do on the selling front? part of the american dream, whether you like it or not is that people believe or dream that they want to be rich. what do democrats need to do to change the narrative here? >> well, it seems like they need to highlight the facts as much as possible as it comes to job creation. >> do you think

>> investors are worried about whether the united states might have an economy that slows down. very good for the last 10 years, and there is some concern that the slowdown in china goods bill over to the united states, the tariffs and trade wars could slow down the economy, the interest rate going up might slow down the economy, and if the democrats gaining control of congress would produce more fights with the president. it's unclear. >> you have been through a few different financial crises, you have seen a lot of different cycles. we're in a position now where something like 13% of the deals this year -- how worried should we be about that? people say it's nothing like 2008, but i'm sure in 2008 it's nothing like the last crisis. >> what's coming in is roughly what we had before the great recession, not that much higher. but the terms are much more favorable. before the great recession, 30% of debt had no coverage. now it is 80% to 90%. if there's a slowdown, the debt can be worked through. >> canada. it would be remiss to ask you about cannabis. does carlyle have any interes

did they not talk about how they see the economy? was very clear that this was on the fed's to-do list and has been for multiple years. they've been saying as the economy improves they'll try to raise the raids. i don't see why he's saying that they have gone crazy. >> neil: maybe because of the market reaction to your point. i'm wondering when we talk about returning to equilibrium or a more historically acceptable range for let's say federal funds, the overnight bank lending rates 2.5%, the argument is you have to get it back to 5% to get back to historical norms. what the markets are saying is, there's no end in sight here. the fear that this is going to go up, up, up and that's what's panicking and leaving the president out of it. what do you think? >> i think there's a bigger component of this fear that is about spiralling trade war with china. so that's why i said, maybe i do understand what the president is trying to do, which is he's trying to take the focus of the market drop off of his actions and try to put it on oh, no, t

and fed policy >> we're looking at the economy. we're looking at a very strong economy, strong fundamentals and we're adjusting the policy stance we've been doing that gradually. we've been moving up we're targeting 2.25% right now. i think neutral is in the 2.75% to 3%. after many years of accommodative policy that i have looked at strongly, it's time to readjust the policy stance at least to neutral >> so at least to neutral. but then he said, hey, we may have to go a little bit above neutral. i asked him what does that mean. he he was very specific about it >> i kind of think maybe 50 basis points above neutral you have to remember there's a lot of uncertainty about neutral. there are different opinions about what that is in terms of short run, neutral and this longer term that's in the s&p. we might have to feel our way around that a little bit, but i'm going to look at how inflation is performing and the momentum in the economy. >> so let's look at where the president and his advisers in the federal reserve disagree and where t

the market economy itself and the public services economy. ways to look at the economy. the movement in recent years to redefine progress and change the way gdp yardsticks are measured. indeed, the controlling process mythshat implements the of market fundamentalism are the yardsticks of progress. we hear that our economy is booming, but for who? said, it the professor is about distribution. we get aggregate data and yardsticks, we don't get distributional yardsticks when the press releases every so often come out of the government and corporate economic realm. we see yardsticks on corporate profits, corporate capital, some yardsticks on unemployment that they ignore child poverty. they know the poor quality of the economy, the horrific , theality in the economy depreciation of natural resources in the economy, the environmental devastation in the surge ofeven the huge obesity in this country, which is now over 30%. in 1980.der 10% all the health consequences of that, due to the produce enough odutionduchenne of -- pr of fast food. the question is, what is market fundame

three aspects of the economy. been physical and that's their business this is nobel prize for economics has been awarded to two researches for their work on climate change and innovation the royal swedish academy of sciences said u.s. economists william nordhaus and paul romer received the award for their work integrating innovation and global warming with economic growth along with the prize the two researches will receive a million u.s. dollars economic surprise is not really a nobel prize it was created by the swedish central bank in one thousand nine hundred sixty nine in memory of alfred nobel a bank. i've overcome on from the business joins us to tell us more about these two guys again the other two men who've won the oil exactly tell us a bit more about these mit so william nordhaus of yale university he's called the father of climate change economics he's been doing this kind of research since the seventy's he's a true pioneer in that field and then we have full roam of new york university he's more lookin

why do we want to slow the economy down? >> because you don't want it to overheat. b is to take the punch bowl away. to do the thing that might feel not so popular in the moment, that's why we shield them from any sort of political influence because you want them to be a little bit more forward looking and not to say, hey, an election is coming up, let's boost the economy as high as we can. >> every time we have higher wages, the fed pulls back on the economy. >> that's not what you were saying when we were facing the great recession. >> you guys made my job easy. i can just sit here and let you talk. thank you so much. do appreciate it, catherine and steve. >> happy halloween. >> happy halloween to you as well. >>> up next, should nancy pelosi really be counting her chickens before they hatch? >> what now i'm saying is we will win. >> so will she regret saying those words? >>> and a washington power couple at odds over the president. is that what they meant by for better or worse? checs at four. enjoy your ride. (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪ explore more with a guarantee

is still the strongest place in the world in terms of economy. try to be emerging market investor couple months you really appreciate the united states. melissa: is true. that is a great point. here on the phone, dick bove, citigroup, jpmorgan, wells fargo report earnings tomorrow morning this is the story what in terms the market does next. dick, great to have you on. what is the outlook? what will they report? >> each one of these companies should report pretty strong numbers not because they're doing better but because the tax rate for them has been cut by, you know, roughly 1/3. the he pretax number will not look anywhere near as good as the after the-tax number. net interest margins may be flat, flat to down, consumers may not take it anymore. they're being treated extraordinarily badly by their banks because the banks have not increased rates on deposits, therefore consumers i think will be pulling money out. i think the second thing you have to watch is the something called other comprehensive income because as interest rates go up, the val

the economy is one issue. immigration is another. troversy on the nomination of brett kavanaugh, and health care is another issue. those are the issues driving this election fundamentally. what has happened the last few days is disturbing, and there are things people look at and say the political environment can become toxic. in terms of influencing voters and how they will make positions at the ballot box, i am not convinced it is a major issue. back, a few months political commentators would tell us the midterms are about local issues, but that has changed now with justice kavanaugh and so forth. so will it be a local election or national headlines that will dominate? >> this is one of the first of that has national implications, national overlay. it is traditionally the case midterm elections are about your local member of congress, your local representative and how you feel. voters have tended to separate these. this election is different we find three out of four voters will say their opinion of president trump affects how they w

the imf was facing its assessment on the uk's economy, for the uk's economy, on the condition or assessmenteal would take place, some sort of negotiation would take place. here is what the chief economist of the imf had to say when i asked him what happens if there is no deal. we assume that it will because that is in the interest of all parties. as we know, sometimes parties cannot agree and they further worsen situations. if brexit turns out to bea situations. if brexit turns out to be a hybrid of some sort, that would disrupt supply chains throughout europe, throughout customs clearing and it could have fairly big effects. as you can see, there are a lot of concerns going ahead for the uk economy and it is notjust the united kingdom, it is the entire world at this point, sally. i think that was the underlying message from the world economic outlook. six months ago we were in a much healthier position and a much better position in terms of how the global economy was doing. now we are in a situation where rising interest rates could affect many developing economies out in this part of the

and some said the market watchers are starting to note that sanctions meant to harm the economies of iran and russia actually seem to be generating a net economic gain for russia in this case the u.s. has applied sanctions against the iranian oil sector starting on august seventh with a final policy taking effect on november fourth the global price of oil has increased by about fourteen percent since then at the same time u.s. sanctions against russia imposed in april have suppressed the value of the ruble which is followed by about fifteen percent now the wall street journal points out that the upside of the rise in oil prices and the fall of the rupee. means russia is getting paid a higher price in u.s. dollars for their main export which is of course oil those dollars can then generate a bonus in domestic purchasing power when exchange for rubles while those trend lines on oil and currency if but fluctuating in recent days the wall street journal reports that so far this year shares in russian oil giants rosneft and lukoil are up by fifty six and thirty nine percent respectively. a

those issues are not good for the economy. at we have seen over the past couple of weeks is a reflection of political risk being priced into i think political risk is being priced in. economics lot of issues. the other issue is how much is the economy going to grow? equities need an economy to grow around 2%, 3%, or 3% to 4%. bonds need flat to up 1. all we need is an economy doing what it is doing. whether the economy is up one or 2.5, that's great for us. for equity markets, you still need to have this study growth. i think people are getting nervous about whether that growth is there a him and then you're getting nervous on the political side. erik: let's talk more about the political side. when you say if democrats take control of the house, when you say there will be more volatility than what we have seen, what does that look like from november 6 until year-end? >> if you look at what has happened over the past two years, whenever there have been issues within the administration , a republican-controlled congress has made

yes, the economy matters. yes, health care matters. a always deals with is race and demographiceds and we're seeing it again and again and the president brilliantly knows how to play this card and make it work. >> sophia, just on that point where you say it's not about health care, the only way for stacy abrams to win is for her to convince a large number of rural white people that their health care is being taken away. all of these hospitals are closing -- >> but jonathan demographics ties in. >> and they're leaving billions of dollars on the table that could be helping them if they vote against kemp and for abrams, they're going to get better health care. that who is to be her message. >> if they can get over the demographic hurdle that kemp and his boys thapd crew down there are pushing. same in the florida governor race, don't monkey around with this, monkey. code words. let's not be in denial that race is an issue on the table and the president plays it well. >> i'm out of time and i'll give you the last word on this adrian. >> i m

and the economy is affected only by the impact of the global economy. on capitol hill, however, condemnation of the saudi regime has been swift and bipartisan. >> just as they are an ally and an important mission with the iranian expansion in the region cannot allow us to walk away from that. it undermines our ability to stand for morality and human rights. >> the most important thing is clear. we cannot have a now i who murders in cold blood, in their own consulate a critic. reporter: as the investigation of event moves forward without u.s. participation, the trump administration concern treasury secretary the niche and will not pull out of plan travel to riyadh later this month. leland: will watch that. gillian turner, thank you. sunday is the business day. already sunday night in saudi arabia. their stock market tumbled by 7% today after the news of president trump spreads for severe punishment in response to the countries involved and in the disappearance. the market managed to rally by the end of the trading day, closing down 3.5%. they are concerne

that, in itself is a concern for the u.k. economytian, focused on the tech route, does this go back to dollar dynamics and what the fed does? sebastian: i think the overwhelming theme of the market are growth concerns. when we speak to investors and look at the market pricing, the market is very worried that we see an additional sharp slowdown in growth momentum. it is already at a two-year low. the market is priced for this to become worse. francine: how much worse? currently ise pmi at 52.5. the market is priced for this to fall below 50. we don't think this is going to happen. we think the growth cycle has trust in europe and china. right now, the market clearly is worried. tom: the market is clearly worried. there are all sorts of little tea leaves we see out there, including a small german bank i don't want you to comment on. the basic idea of little stories adding up into a market decline, a market correction, a bear market, are you seeing a summing of stories or can a big picture hold that? could either think about a lot of th