the euro trading at 1139 at the moment.greek bond yields have taken a step up compared to yesterday. the ten year is at 10.35%. we look here at the shorter end. the three year 18.2. so elevated as the risk increases once again. friday they request an extension of the bailout. the ecb will meet on whether to retain emergency funding. speaking this morning the greek president said the ball is firmly in the greek court. >> hope they will ask for an extension program and we can allow flexibility inside the program. they can put in their political priorities. we will see whether the program remains on track but that is the way forward but it's up to the greeks. we cannot make them or we will not ask them. it's really up to them. we stand ready to work with them the next couple of days. i never go into if questions. i'm just telling you what i think would be wise. >> in addition to following new developments with greece and it's creditors let's give you a run down of this trading day. they release the monthly housing market index

you can follow the sign on twitter at ecb euro sign cnbc. it's gathering quite the following. >> you're envious of the sign. >> of course. lots of traction. >> absolutely. more to come. coming up on the show the greek german show down continues. who will blink first? we speak to a former ecb executive board member. that's coming up next here on worldwide exchange. >>> welcome back. let's give you your headlines. u.s. markets aim for the best week in more than three years as they eye payrolls. twitter stocks soaring after they top forecasts and go pro shares take a tumble after the coo announces her resignation. >> let's bring the focus back to europe. joining us on the phone is a former ecb executive board member. lorenzo thank you for joining us this morning. let's talk about the latest developments that we've had in this situation was it right for the ecb to act as it has in such a crucial stage of political negotiations between germany and greece? >> well it's between greece and all the other european partners. but precisely because of the

the euro/swiss very much in show. the swiss franc is at its weakest against the euro.his is at its weakest against the euro since they drop the cap on the 14th of december. the swiss national bank has a bit of a move. that is what you call a fast market. they have an official quarter of 105 to 110 and that will cost them 10 billion swiss francs to defend that, so the swiss bank could have a new level that they want to defend, a new corridor that they want. that is speculation. it is also speculated that the swiss national bank were doing what they did rather well for a period of time, which was getting involved in the foreign exchange markets on thursday and on friday, buying the euro, selling swiss francs to take you back off at pretty traumatic level that wiped out billions in terms of market capitalization for many of the swiss institutions and exporters. that is the move on euro/swiss this morning. >> the bloomberg top headlines. the family of a journalist welcomed release from prison in egypt after more than one year in detention. colleagues from al jazeera and he

the greek officials here working closely with the euro group. not the commission we heard reports of on monday to try to thrash out a proposal acceptable to both sides of this stage and hopeful that what they have come up with will be acceptable at this stage. high hopes as far as the greeks are concerned. we have heard reports yesterday of the euro group meeting on friday or perhaps a teleconference. so that fits it too. but a teleconference more likely than getting all the finance ministers over here but in terms of broader details we have to wait and see. there's been reports that it follows closely to what we proposals are concerned. i look at the details o on this and my own personal opinion as far as the difficulty in predicting just what the economy is going to look like going forwar. particularly what we have seen. i wonder if we get an extension in place right now and thrash out the details afterwards. he said let's get an extension in place and talk about the details. we have to wait and see. we of course haven't even had a formal annou

this resilience is adding to the credibility of the euro area. ms to me it would be a mistake to underestimate what it is bringing about for europe as a whole. mr. trichet, one of the risks remains firmly in the banking sector particularly for greece. take me inside the ecb, how does one make the decision that a a bank is insolvent and be it is time to switch off to emergency liquidity? guest: it is something which is a judgment which has been made and which was made and has to be made by the governing council itself with all of its dimensions but it is absolutely clear that when the emergency liquidity assistance takes an enormous dimension and when it is absolutely clear that the level of the euro area as a whole, we have an abnormal phenomenon in terms of monetary financing then the governing council has to step up and take the appropriate decision. it's not easy to take but it has to be taken. jonathan: how close are we to that situation right now? guest: i would not say. what is important in greece today of course is that the new program whic

jonathan: the big call with saudi-euro, the other big call was euro-dollar. e everyone is easing, the dollar get stronger, is that likely the story for 11? simon: it will not be as take a story as we have seen since july. the weekly gains were unprecedented. on a momentum basis i think we will struggle with the exact same event of. what we -- exact same momentum. but we are seen recently is -- we cannot sustain the gains we have seen over the next 11 months. jonathan: what forces the feds to capitulate and what is your conviction trade off the back of that? jonathan: capitulate as in titan -- simon: capitulate as in tighten? jonathan: as in not tighten. simon: i'm convinced the recovery is sustainable. we've seen said -- central banks tighten and then pull back. it is more likely the inflation side that forces them to hold ground. jonathan: the big trade? simon: in the moment it is euro-yen. easy down to one point 30 and below. jonathan: thank you for joining us. as we head to the break, a quick check in on markets. this is 100 down by 37 points. the dax is a

the euro down a quarter of a percent at the moment. >> euro trading at session lows against the u.s.r. what does this mean for u.s. futures? right now pointing to a lower open. dow jones down about 6 points despite the some what positive developments, if you will coming out of discussions between greek leaders and euro group policy makers. the focus today will arguably be on the janet yellen that testimony on capital hill. will she deliver a market shocker when it comes to when rates will be hiked up. that is the big question. taking a look at the global index we're falling in line with european markets and we're down about 5 points in today's trade. as we were saying investors taking a more cautious approach. will she use the word patient when describing when the fed will raise rates. when were we trading? athens is seeing the greek market hearsay been a bright spot. let's run you through the broader european markets. ftse 100 down flat on the day. xetra dax down about 25 points. up about 13% so far this year and despite the run up in german stocks still trading at price to earnings

that bank run then actually could lead to -- if greece leaves the euro zone, the biggest part of the euro zone and being in the euro is that it is irrevocable. all of a sudden the euro becomes revocable. market participants will look to other countries saying where else could this happen. that moves that bank run to probably italy, possibly to spain. i don't know if that's going to happen, but you need to watch this. if everything goes to the middle, everything goes to germany and the euro zone fractures. look for a significantly lower euro. if you see the euro diving, that's going to be your first sign there's a real problem out there. number two, look at german yields, if they start to go recorder low because they're all right at record lows,s th s tht problem. if you can't get your money out of the lit italy, spain, greeceu buy gold. i bought some gld today. i'll short more of the euro. >> with more on what the future could hold for greece, let's bring in the dennis garvin. you think that greece should leave? do you think that greece will leave, though? >> first of all, if i were c

much priced into the markets. europing down. the market has obviously talken this as a sign that increasing uncertain times but i think the market was really anticipating after the greek elections that matters were going to come to a head. >> as we go into these di discussions today there was some progress earlier in the week on the negotiations. who is it the greeks or the germans to make the significant concession? >> the discussions are clear that the germans are going to talk hard ball. it's really for the greeks to come to the table and offer some concessions. i think the position of the ecb and germans is very clear in this situation. >> let's talk about the action we're seeing in the currency space because it's been becoming much more expensive for many countries to support their currency peg. i'm referring to denmark of course. we saw that unexpected move from the swiss national bank. do you think you could forsee the bank of denmark participating in a similar move? given the weakness of the euro it's much more

a happens, we sell the euro, be happens we sell the euro, see happens, we sell the euro.ere any reason to buy the euro? >> if we see a favorable compromise coming out of the musi meeting, we can see a squeeze higher in the euro. the euro is trading favorably in some places. we are seeing more positive signs on the equity front. the portfolio data is signaling that. the euro is fundamentally still overvalued. it still has room to run to the downside. the political situation certainly does not help that. >> let's get back to the politics again. what you think will be the sticking point is the week progresses? will it come down to the greek linking debt to growth? >> it is going to come down to whether or not greece gets the bridging agreement that they have asked for. i think the technical details will be important in the assessed that there will need to be some renegotiations of the terms of the agreement. the details remain to be seen. >> we talked so much about -- in 2012. there is a lot of hype about how every single varoufakis headline comes across bloomberg. how diffe

they may leave the euro if the greek exit works. the concern is not not if they leave the euro. must be financed. >> no economy can survive without cash. they are drawn their money. whether or not the question is of capital control would be put in place to prevent a deeper route. >> if the banks are talking to the ecb -- it is actually the people on the streets saying i want my money now. i will pull it out, put it in my house, under the bed appeared it is safer there than the bank. >> gold rising for a third day. thank you for that. you can get more on that and all the days of top stories at our new digital destination. we bring together the best of bloomberg news, business week and new digital content all in one address =. some breaking news right now -- fourth-quarter earnings coming in at 857.3 million. that is $1.1 billion u.s.. fourth-quarter revenue coming in at $1.5 billion. $2.75 billion in cash at the end of the period. there you go. some capital lending's for you. some other news, more than $15 billion in fines for federal claims of misconduct. rbs is one of several b

yes, there is the euro, which is the common currency. there is a monetary policy. e is much more euro supervision of institutions. but is it to say that there is a euro fiscal policy? no. i don't think it is that the europeans are short of imagination, they have plenty of it. but they are not at the political stage where they can have a unifying fiscal stage. i understand larry's argument. when you look at the euro area balance sheet, it looks good. a lot better than the u.s.'s. but it is not tradable yet. it is not bankable. there is no fiscal policy that is common to all. their more determined to use that balance sheet to go into binge borrowing at low interest rates. i think is a question of process. massive progress has been made in the last five years thanks to the crisis. i hope it will not take another crisis. to make more progress, but more progress has to be made in terms of the union pursuing the banking unit. but there is huge potential in this part of the world. to think of it as one single economic unit, it is not the case. >> just to larry's point. whi

we expect the euro to fall further. eventually below in the next couple of years but in local currency terms i think the benefit of a weaker currency also slightly improved momentum of growth and also the benefits from low oil prices will start to push the local he i wasty market higher. >> you mentioned earnings sentiment. now we have a chart of yours we'll bring up as we look at this. it does show the earnings sentiment has spiked but it's a pretty volatile looking chart. what gives you confidence that this current spike will maintain. >> it's clear. the earnings expectations are still coming down in europe. we were well below forecasts this coming year. the consensus has come down from well under 10% to around 6% in europe for this year. a lot of that relates to the commodity sectors, oil in particular. when we're looking at sentiment we're looking at the numbers of upgrades versus downgrades. that's still negative but becoming much less negative at a time when the reverse is happen aing in the ing in the u.s. and it'

but i don't expect the euro group to make significant concessions. s very, very firm yesterday. the finance minister said no to an earlier letter which was released by the greeks and seems to have got his way. but, again, let's see the communique first but at the moment it seems that greece has made the most significant concessions. >> the prime minister has requested for the loan period to be extended by another six months. if granted to him, how would he make use of this time that has been given to him? >> well as i heard euro zone officials saying greece wanted the money for free. i mean the problem with the greek request was always that greece obviously wanted the cash from the euro -- euro zone partners, but at the same time wanted to have time to negotiate a better deal in terms of conditions. that means less austerity for its public finances and possibly a different approach to the program of structural reforms, that includes some labor market reforms that is something that alexis tsipras disagrees with. the euro zone said okay we will give you

this is -- this could also help the euro worldwide. good news. >> does that mean you might lower the prices of your products? >> no. we will strengthen the support of our brands overall, on the planet, and it will definitely also help as i said, the translation in the euro of our sales and our profits. >> in europe, are you seeing any signs of a recovery, and what would be the risk of greek exit for the european sentiment? >> i'm positive and optimistic about europe. the reasons to be optimistic are much more important than the reasons of being anxious. the reason to be optimistic is as i said, strong decline in the gas price. the weaker euro that is very good news. it will help european companies. many, many good news. and obviously, the greek story will add more to that. >> in france, we had the latest gdp numbers showing growth was only 0.1% in the first quarter. do you expect a recovery of the french economy? >> i think it's going in the wrong direction -- in the right direction, the positive direction. also, as i explained everyth

as you can see the euro dollar is at 114 and up .23%. the big move you saw earlier came off the back of the german gdp number which came in much better than expected. >> let's take a look at the markets. they did end higher yesterday. the s&p closing at its highest level this year trading within.2%. so despite the fears around russia and ukraine and uncertainty around greece u.s. markets continue to move higher. having to do with better than expected earnings and stronger than expected data but that raises the fear of whether rates will be hiked sooner rather than later. the dow indicating a higher move in premarket trade. the nasdaq has been on fire. much of that having to do with the out performance of shares in apple and s&p indicating a higher move by around four points in premarket trade but as we were discussing the global 300 index fractionally higher. of course a lot for investors to keep in mind. this week we had the russia ukraine ceasefire agreement. that does commence on february 15th which is this sunday and of course the gre

let's have a look at the euro. ion when you saw a little bit of reaction on the ecb news lats night which was a standard meeting. we heard from standard chartered. the greek banks are no longer going to be able to put greek sovereign bonds in as collateral. we should have come off those levels. trade is up to 150. that is where we begin to sell the euro dollar and the other one that is worth keeping an eye on is the biggest declining currency in the basket of developing -- developed currency. this is the brazilian rio. the biggest name petrobras lost their ceo. inflation was upgraded and the payroll number will be pretty them porton. the brazilian riel -- real, those are the triptych of crosses that matter to the u.s. by the way well the chinese do anything with their currency? i leave you with that thought. back to you. mark: you're watching "countdown ." greece lost a critical source of funding after the bank restricted loans to its financial system. it puts pressure on the premised her to stay -- prime minister t

yes, there is the euro, which is the common currency. there is a monetary policy. s much more euro supervision of institutions. but is it to say that there is a euro fiscal policy? no. i don't think it is that the europeans are short of imagination, they have. 20 of it -- they have plenty of it. they are not at the place where they can have a unifying fiscal stage. i understand larry's argument. it is not tradable yet. it is not bankable. there is no fiscal policy that is common to all. their more determined to use that balance sheet to go into binge borrowing at low interest rates. i think is a question of process. massive progress has been made in the last five years next to the crisis. i hope it will not take another crisis to make more progress but more progress has to be made in terms of the union pursuing the banking unit. there is huge potential in this part of the world. to think of it as one single economy unit, it is not the case. you in this part of the world. >> just to larry's point. while fiscal policy will be more important in the years to come i thin

they want to get the euro down lower. we have seen here is the market has been really overcrowded. we have seen a $.23 move in a euro current the in the last year from the mid 130's down to 113. i fully believe it is going a lot lower before it is all said and done, but the trade. he was sinead. >> so what you're saying here is you do not necessarily want to pile onto the euro. you will back off on this and perhaps short the dollar, how long would you do that for? >> i think we are at a real nice level of the work the 112 to the 1:13 level. i have seen a higher trade but i would like to buy the euro here. i would trade up to 113, no problem. a real quick move is coming. two 117 which in euro currency terms and that is $1280 ok which means i can make 3700-4000 dollars in a matter of minutes or days, because i think when it happens, it will be a short recovery rally that will quick fast, and sharp. >> will we see this with other euro trades? >> i think the euro yen, they're both raising each other down here and i am not a bi

the euro is something to touch upon. ropped yesterday on the back of the breaking up of the talks but it more or less, has recovered. it is a game of prisoner they are playing. in terms of the aussie dollar we are seeing the minutes. the minutes came out for the decision from the australian central bank. the consensus from the market, aussie dollar is rising. they prevaricate it, they were not sure whether they wanted to cut rates in february or march. the market is convinced, you will have to do more. the rba will have to do more to get the currency lower. slightly nearer term, the momentum is upwards. before the rate decision traders were backing 77% probability. a little bit hawkish. one or two decent calls, it looks cheap versus the canadian dollar. a 4% lift aussie dollar, new zealand dollar trade. >> some breaking news on the french telecom sector. if we look at the sales number for orange, that looks ahead of analyst estimates for the fourth quarter. 10 million euros. they have restated for 2014, 12 .1 9 billion. t

why has the euro managed to e ke out gains? it hasn't fallen aggressively further, that is the better way to play it. we had a great deal of uncertainty. we now have a little bit of a war. now, we are getting to the crux of the crisis. we have the finance meanings on wednesday. -- the finance meetings on wednesday. i think that is going to be the real crystallization of whether the euro is going to maintain its current valuation or whether we see further pressure points which seems likely. mr. tsipras suggested that a collision course was inevitable. >> there could be a collision this week, setting us up for another collision on the 18th of february, when the ecb can vote to continue to grant access to their special liquidity scheme. if the ecb decides to cut greece out, would that be an economic or political decision? >> you can argue it both ways. if you look at the mechanisms of the agreement, it is a case of agreeing to fund banks which seem to be solvent. that could be a debating point. we've seen this massive capital slid

the euro 16% higher than now. se are considered to be positive factors that could help to boost the french economy. if you look at numbers for business sentiment, a banker friend survey showed sentiment was a 10 month high. that is a reason to be cheerful. numbers from germany on the gdp front, 27 minutes from now. we will get the complete numbers for the eurozone. plenty more to come as we go through the morning. if you are interested in the french economy specifically, we will be talking to one big company a little later. the ceo of l'oreal. he will be speaking to us exclusively here at bloomberg. >> the top stories, angela merkel says russia will face further sanctions they do not lament the piece deal she helped broker -- do not implement the peace deal she helped broker yesterday. the cease-fire arrangement is due to begin on sunday. greek prime minister elect says his nation is seeking a new contract with the euro area on how to continue the bailout. this came after he met with eu leaders. he said their goal

an orderly exit from the euro is what you would propose. would an orderly exit the possible? sible in this world in particular. private investors have been able to escape. greece has received two hundred 63 billion euros of public credit, which was 143% of gdp. about half of that money was used to pay back loans by foreign investors. they are saved. if greece exits there won't be a contagion to the capital market. the greek spreads went up. no one else is impressed by that. >> all the spreads show people don't think reese will leave. how can you be sure your interpretation is correct? >> it's very clear. the spreads or 10%. the market expects greece to default but no one else. usually the other spreads will also go up but this time not. the markets clearly isolate greece from the rest. we have rescue packages for the rest. the contagion via the capital markets is not there. why should greece leave? i think it should leave for the benefit of the population. five years ago the rate of unemployment was half of what it is now. during that time since public credit from other countr

jonathan: another reason to sell the euro? sileios: i think risk for the downside remains firmly in place. unless the unthinkable happened in which greece exits the euro where there will be a period of time with excessive a la tillie, the euro will not be traded on the back of greek development. it is still trading on the diversions between the fed and the major central banks as well as all the discussions about qe. having said all that, i don't think the euro will relapse to parity or below that. i think it could start providing cushion further down the road. we have to take into account that we are seeing some improvement in service. jonathan: it seems that ecb still holds all the cards, thank you for joining me this morning. thank you both. up next, more about greece. and bt has agreed to buy ee. more on that 12.5 billion pound deal after the break. ♪ jonathan: welcome back to "on the move." bt has decided to buy ee for 12.5 billion pounds. caroline hyde joins me now they finally confirmed the deal. caroline: a lovely quote

germany is willing to let greece leaves the euro unless it continues austerity. bcg partners has won its fight to acquire gfi group's. the price tag is about $780 million. let nick won a bidding war. and brokers handle large trades among large banks. he is also the ceo of campell that stale. a women's clothing store and taylor is looking to sell. and taylor is working with jpmorgan and has reached substantial potential buyers and also owns the loft. for months now, hackers have had access to the unclassified portions of the state department's e-mail system. officials familiar with the matter say that government and private security specialists are trying to get rid of the hackers. one official says that it may have originated in russia. >> let me take you back to the story back in greece. our international correspondent is in brussels. hans, you have the greek prime minister saying he's optimistic. others are saying that germany is ready to watch its hands of the whole thing and send greece packing. what is really happening right now? is it even possible to know?

it put enormous pressure on the euro. you look at those two pairs and the combination, the euro had to devalue at some point. now you are seeing the euro and the yen devalued again. interesting how the japanese will follow-up. low and behold, we have the u.s. sitting there watching and being the one currency that is rallying because everyone else is trying to devalue. thank you for the swiss they decided to join the currencies that would rally. we are happy to have them on that side of the ledger. it does feel that we are in a global in economy. i don't disagree with that the prevailing view is one of the easier ways to stimulate economic growth, to have a low currency. to export against and hopefully create tourism and imports. it makes sense. >> currency wars -- i am sure someone on the panel can help me. the purchasing power for the euro-dollar is around 116. the problem is where we have been over the last couple of years because of qe in the u.s. and the effective tightening in europe. it is because of the lending bei

the euro may decline over the next 12 months.wo, the big flow elements of the euro, namely that real money accounts are shifting away from the euro that european banks where you find their asset return is that 3% being too low -- you are exporting capital. this export of capital, that is going to keep the eurozone. >> thank you. >> coming up, the fare. they seem red flags -- what are they? stay with us. ♪ >> 6:30 this morning in london. he says be careful because the fed does not specifically cite the dollar. they use the words source of restraint. this is the big trend. the bottom right-hand corner, the dollar. the point about it is this. dollar going down, morgan stanley would say it is a short-term reprieve. it will going to the bond market. the dollar index is lower. the fed is patient. concerned about currency. about the overall dynamics. they were not equipped for the fact they had their third best month. that next set of data, janet yellen's testimony, will set up the bigger and more persistent and dominant move. the past

the euro dollar trading at 1.14. interesting to see the reverse trade over the past couplel of months. alexis is at the moment meeting with commissioner president. the financial times is reporting he will ask him for a technical extension of the country's current bailout. we'll have all the details at 9:30 london time when we cross live to julia on the ground in brussels where that meeting is taking place. >> if he agrees to this technical extension, would that basically be going against what he promised citizens? in a way he has to hold up to what he has been promising his people that voted for him. >> over the last 24 hours we have seen that coming out of him. a hair cut on the debt is now agreed in greek people's minds. that was the first step needed. >> that's the newly elected prime minister of greece. a bromance if you will. >> the later meeting will be coming today with mario draghi. will there be the same level of chemistry? the european central bank is set to push back on greece's turn around plan. specifical

leaving the euro -- not the euro, but europe. francine: michael are you most concerned about greece and the greek banks or russia? we talk a lot about russia. we talk a lot about sanctions. it doesn't seem the markets have fully priced in what could go wrong. >> i don't think that russia is going to help greece, if you put it this way, because they have their own problems. the situation -- we have to see. from berlin ticky a is closer than berlin to rome. we are very much afraid about the ukraine situation and the situation with russia. i hope that my chancellor isn't the only one who is on speaking terms with putin at the moment but she is able to convince him to fulfill what he promised to do with minsk. francine: the u.s. is still in favor of providing weapons the people on the ground in ukraine to help if the situation doesn't get better very soon. would you be completely opposed to that? >> well, we are not very positive as far as that concerns -- as far as that is concerned. we think sanctions are better. at the moment, the

the euro is bouncing back a little bit today. now the u.s. dollar has given up a little bit of ground as the yields came back on the bond and the euro gaining a little bit today. elsewhere we're not seeing too much of a move across the space. worth pointing out the pound which has had a bit of a rally since mid january. we'll talk about that shortly as well. it's 15396. what else is coming up. >> here's what's coming up on worldwide exchange. we tell you about the two stories that sent twitter into melt down. one involving two lamas. that's right. right here. we'll get you the full story. the other one doing well on social media, the dress, is it black or blue or white? and gold? take a look at it. it looks different depending on where you sit and who you are. plus we'll focus on emerging markets. india's biggest economic event of the year. will prime minister modhi's budget deliver? stay tuned for that discussion later in the show. he's out there. there's a guy out there whose making a name for himself in a sport where your name and maybe a

and at the same time still try to get more money out of the euro zone. so tomorrow still going to be very very contentious. the outcome is really key. if they don't finish tomorrow then the rest of the euro zone ministers, many of whom who have to go back to their home country and parliament the equivalent of trying to get back in congress if they don't get this done by tomorrow they don't think they'll have enough time before the official greek program expires. that means it will be cut off by the european central bank and that could be really devastating for the greek economy, close to exiting the euro zone. if they don't get the deal done by tomorrow there's concerns about the banking system. would there be runs on the bank? and would the european central bank have a big decision about whether or not they're funding the greek banks? bottom line tomorrow is pivotal. for "nightly business report," michelle caruso-cabrera. >>> oil prices fell for a second day after a government report showed record high inventories of crude. the energy information adminis

the euro down 1.1324. the u.s. says it's deeply troubled by reports of fighting in eastern ukraine as the ceasefire looks increasingly precarious. this as russia says it began supplying natural gas in eastern ukraine in a response to a decision to suspend shipments. we spoke to the ceo and asked him what this meant to supplies for europe. >> it did not have any effect on the supply to europe because the area is controlled by the terrorists, or a as we say far from those pipelines to ship gas to european union. >> the russian central bank said the peak of the ruble volatility is over. however, the governor said it was too early to talk about calming prices and added the central bank would be ready to reduce capital requirements for banks that encountered difficulties. >>> a look at european markets and we're pretty much bang on flat as we look at things at the moment. yesterday we started down. we then rallied as it looked like we might get a compromise from greece as greece requested an extension which is what they

on top of that, you have got the euro versus the dollar.e aspects have led to increased volatility in oil markets, which if you look at the money they have gone up to 60%. historic highs. we are looking at high volatility causing the up-and-down, increase in decreases we are seeing in oil prices. >> the question i will ask you is when i've asked a few people. this time last year, no one was saying that this was an oversupplied market. we sit here now and everyone says it is. what has changed in terms of supply in the last 12 months? were we wrong then or are things wrong now? >> if you look back at the same time last year, we were slightly an oversupplied market but the slight oversupply was really taken away by the outages or geopolitical risks or premiums attached to it. it was balanced in that aspect but july last year we started seeing increased volumes coming out of u.s. oil production ramping up. in a little bit less disruption. what happened was even though there was destruction in libya the impact of those outages were felt less bec

we have the weaker euro and the fall in oil prices. it is more benign than it has been. >> is there a clear choice when you look at market a country you like to be long off the markets at all? >> well, i mean, i personally look a lot at the germman economy. the despite the fact the e equity market has been among the better performance. the fundamental performance is still very positive. >> and let's finally bring the discussion back to the situation we touched on earlier. what are the key dates we need to watch for in 2015? >> i think we have to stick with greece for some time. i think today is an important today. it will probably not be the end of what will probably be extended negotiations. i think the other important days are toward the back end of the year with the elections in portugal and in spain for which we are still waiting for the final dates. but i really think this year will be the start of a long period where political risk will gravitate very much toward the middle of the invest ersors will have to look for. >> thank you

yes, there is the euro, which is the common currency. there is a monetary policy. is not much more euro supervision of institutions. but is it to say that there is a euro fiscal policy? no. i do not think that the europeans are short of imagination. i think they have plenty of it. they are not at the place where they can have a fiscal policy in place. it looks good. it looks a lot better than the u.s. balance sheet for that matter. it is not bankable. it is not tradable yet. there is no fiscal policy that is common to all. they are not yet determined to use that balance sheet to go into binge borrowing at low interest rates. i think it is a question as anna indicated, of progress. i hopelessly that it will not take another crisis to make yet more progress. more progress has to be made in terms of fiscal union, pursuant to the end of banking union and how the qe is structured. there is huge potential in this part of the world. to think of it as one single economy unit, it is not the case. >> just to larry's point. while fiscal policy will be more important in the ye

abandoning the peg was always in our scenarios when we looked at the euro crisis. y to day trading activity, we didn't really make money out of that. it was not really a priority. >> forewarned is a good way to be. we hear from the central bank they are afraid to go in negative rates. what is the impact of the smb's action? what does it mean to ubs? >> everybody is focused on the currency movements, which is something that we need to adapt. the consequences is clearly the negative interest rates. at this time, we're passing the cost of negative interest rates to larger corporate clients. we cannot rule out that more clients will be affected. clearly that has some severe and devastating consequences for part of the economy. >> what is the reaction so far? but has the movement and? -- what has the movement been? >> we saw a huge amount of swiss clients buying euros. they were buying euros for shopping and holidays. i would call it temporary demand, not structural. >> they are introducing cost cuts. at what point might you reconsider the strategy? >> the strategy won't

who'll benefit offer the weak euro. reek scenario will end with a compromise because clearly there is too much a it stake. >> one of your trades, you have been short crude oil. you seem to have closed no that out at the end of january for an 18% return in dollars. that was clever. since then oil has been rising. was there a reason you closed out then? >> what does your crystal ball tell you? >> on oil we are looking to introduce a trade and -- the norwegian kronor. we believe it will have -- with the currency. >> that is interesting. if that happens, are we going to stop seeing central banks taking their interest rates lower and try to devalue their currencies? how many are with no snu -- are we now? trying to tackle the deflationary forces. brought about by the weak oil prices. >> i believe the whole q.e. will continue. the only big market that will make a big difference is the u.s. because in a way they started tightening by ending the q.e. and having in mind the positive unemployment numbers. we can expect interest ra

the top stories this hour. euroe finance ministers will hold talks in brussels today over greece's proposal to extend its european loan program. yesterday the greek prime minister said on twitter he has had a positive competent -- conversation with german chancellor angela merkel after her finance minister rejected out of hand greece's loan extension request. lenovo said it messed up badly by preinstalling software on its computers that potentially exposed users to hacking attacks and unauthorized activity monitoring. the world's biggest maker of personal computers has promised to have a fix ready today. the french drugmaker is hiring olivier brenda core as its next chief executive. -- brandcourt as its next chief executive. the move comes after they fired the previous chief executive. >> of course they go over these false alarm scares that some of their products could create. that was a big scare in asia in 2013. this year in 2014 they have recovered from that. it is 4.7% on a like for like races. in the fourth qua

let's see if most or all of the 18 other members of the euro zone agree with the position. in an effort, evidently to see whether they can isolate the german whose have been the most hard line negotiations with the greeks for this five year austerity period. >> joining me now is george -- political analyst and journalist at the newspaper daily, thank you for being with us, at the moment, they look pretty entrenched, where do you think there is room for potential come proprize. >> i think there is a lot of room for potential compromise, because every side has no plan b. we are forced to compromise, germany must compromise the chief of the muir penal this afternoon, the greek prime minister the conversation with angel, it will be a very difficult negotiations. i think that every size is looking for a solution. this is a classical way inside the injury row zone. because there is no plan b no one takes the political risk to put that to interpret territory. sew compromise. the former championship says it is only a matter of time before they are forced out of the euro zone. that

the euro is actually up by .25%. longest weekly winning streak for the single currency since march 2014. it has been a while. if you want to continue the conversation, i am on twitter. it is a very happy friday. as we cut to break, i will leave you with the beautiful city of london. i am going outside. why is it gray, the sun was out 30 minutes ago? have a great weekend. ♪ >> compromise on greece, maybe. bailout talks in brussels as germany shows signs of softening. >> bouncing back. how guy hands recovered. we will bring you an exclusive interview. >> and, worth it. in another bloomberg exclusive, we speak to l'oreal's ceo to find out why the strong dollar is good for the world's biggest cosmetic maker. good morning. you are watching "the pulse."