dollar. >> the fed hinted at this. s not a lot of information, two parts are worth noting. they added international risk to their list of concerns, code language for we are watching the strengthen the dollar developments in europe. >> was it always code language that said we are paying attention -- also code language that said we are paying attention to this and we can pivot if we want to because we said we are looking at developments, geopolitical, and otherwise? >> well, that is one more reason for them to move slower. they did not want to take the media timeframe off of the meeting, but highlighting international risks was a step to move later. the other moving part is the inflation language. they were more in a key and linking low-inflation to energy prices than they were at the time of the december meeting. this could be a sticking point for the fed. they will be surprised that core inflation and wage inflation will be weaker than they anticipated over the next six months. >> i agree with you. >> they will not have

the fed wants to get started. less the conditions change between now and then or if oil falls more or there is some other disruption for the fed to keep its timetable as it to get ahead of what it expects will be strong growth. one footnote on this -- the fed says for 2017, like 2016 and 2015, they believe that the u.s. economy growth will be beyond the ability to grow, which is a way of saying that we will see a jobless rate the klein potential for the next three years. that is what the fed needs to get ahead of and not think too much about what janet yellen called the transitory effects of oil the klein. -- oil decline. it is likely the impact will not pass through too much. >> ok, we have about a minute left. let's continue on that oil beat for a moment. the sharp decline in oil prices could it be overall beneficial for the u.s. economy? >> without question. we consumed millions of gallons of oil last year. bill dudley -- one of the three most powerful at the fed -- said a month or so ago, a $20 drop in the pric

the fed is in a box. they really are. don't envy them because some day the inflation numbers will start to kick in. i don't know when. there is a lag built into those numbers, and there are some reasons right now to say, well, wait a minute, they're going to start to bottom and rise, and you can only keep ranging the employment targets for so long. >> right. >> so this international thing, which i venture to say is in many respects more powerful than small moves in the inflation rate or the unemployment rate -- >> right. >> -- is now being at least put out there publicly. i think it's been, i would guess, discussed for well over a year. >> sure. dan, we've got to leave it there, but we appreciate you phoning in on such short notice. >> you're very, very welcome. thanks for having me. >> dan fuss, loomis sales. let's get to rick santelli covering the cme and the move in the bond market. >> this is a very, very significant move in the long end of the market i'll give you a quick rundown as to what traders are telling me is t

see coming from the fed. ultimately the market is going to set interest rates and what people think about what the fed is doing. all of that is very important. >> where do you think rates are going? the market is going to take them? >> first off, the federal reserve will do what they said they're going to do. the jan yellin and the fed will raise the third quarter from a zero rate to something maybe half a point, quarter of a point in there. more of a symbol that we're no lon longer in the emergency room. discharge the mrch room and interest rates out maybe five or ten years probably up in the 2.75% range by the end of next year. 3% on the ten year because the economy in the u.s. is improving. labor market is improving. financial markets improving. when some of this oil volatility works its way through -- >> usually, the u.s. economy, steven strong enough to pull the rest of the world, which it sure seems like it's doing to some degree right now, particularly europe and china and japan. or will those economies

plus counting down to the latest fed decision. the strong dollar causing concerns about the global xhi economy and the headwind that that might pose for many u.s. companies. will the fed then stay on track with its plan to begin raising interest rates. we'll explore that and more when "power lunch" returns. recently, a 1954 mercedes-benz grand prix race car made history when it sold for a record price of just under $30 million. and now, another mercedes-benz makes history selling at just over $30,000. and to think this one actually has a surround-sound stereo. the 2015 cla. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. >>> this is power lunch. we're watching the energy sector moving lower after the numbers that kim out this morning. stockpiles hit their lowest level since records started being kept back in 1928. heavy ron and exxonmobil are two of the biggest drags on the dow today. also if you look broader. hess and conco phillips moving lower. the energy sector is the wo

if the fed raises rates, if the economy started to pick up enough that the fed raises rates, what impacts that have on an average mid cap stock here? >> well, i think that would be positive. in particular, if the -- you know economy is improving. mid cap as i said before will continue to grow just as the small companies will grow. and the valuations there are pretty attractive. we think the mid cap space is always good spot to be. >> well we'll be watching to see which ones in particular you pick this year. david nicholas to kick off the beat the street segment this year thank you so much. >> thank you. >> love that fire out there. freezing in much of the country right now. >> some of you have an idea. >> yes. pretty windy around these parts, too. not chilly in the market after a couple of tough sessions to kick off the year. up 182. s&p up 19 and nasdaq up almost 50. >> a story to be focused on, the gunmen at large in the deadly attack in paris earlier that killed a dozen people. we'll have the latest developments on that from france coming up. when it comes to medicare, everyone talks

oil is a microcosm of the fed's problem. they have a 2% problem in these oil prices, even if they rebound, which i think they will at some point, will not solve the problem. it's not just the low oil prices, it's the larger deflationary pressures we're having. i think that's why the fed is in a band right now. they want want to to say the economy is getting better. they're seeing it get better. consumer confidence. they have a deflation problem, at the end of the day. the deflation pressures are exact be earnings in the u.s. unless you're buying an iphone or that kind of thing, the companies are -- they're feeling this pain. while the economy is solid right now, if the fed starts raising interest rates, the dollar continues to rise, we continue to see this deflation, the economy won't stay solid over the long-term. liz: that brings me back to john. doesn't janet yellen have to map a plan, does she not, john, have to say, i need to course out this mak -- map that course of interest rate tightening? >> she does. i think that's

the u.s. bonds lower. then our fedout there talking, getting rid of the considerable time language introducing the patient language. our bonds keep rallying. was any of this supposed to happen? >> when you think about what is fair value. ten year, depending how you measure it fair value is closer to 3%. maybe 2.75%. but then you put that in context. what's fair value for italy, fair value for italy is 200 to 300 basis points cheaper than where they are today and it's just because you're forcing this incredible policy and a tremendous amount of bonds coming out of the marketplace in a time where people don't factor in enough. the world is delevering. you're not producing enough fixed income and that policy is taking so many bonds out of the marketplace that you continue to press yields down and so we move to these extraordinary conditions. >> so should all these central banks buying bonds stop doing it altogether and just move interest rates into negative territory if that's what they're trying to achieve but the europe

the fed's language is out of date. e inflation outlook makes it sound like inflation's on track for their target. they say they're closely monitoring it. but the reality is that the inflation date has been consistently week, a dramatic move in oil in the dollar. those will work their way into core inflation. so i think the fed's got to start coming clean on this that they're probably going to miss inflation forecast. >> what would the language sound like if not patient? what kind of words could they potentially use. >> they definitely keep patient. they're in no rush to move here. if anything they'll move later than the markets expect. what they change is they acknowledge that downside risk to inflation have emerged and acknowledge in a clear way. owe don't think they'll do that today. there's no press conference, no rush to change. one of the next meetings they need to mark to market the actual inflation picture now. >> does that open the lid, that is the steam cooker the steam pressure cooker of the dollar right now,

the feds said it will remain patient about raising interest rates. with that money zipped out of stocks and into bonds. here's how the major equities looked at close. the nasdaq down 43 and the s&p 500 lower by 27. u.s. treasury prices by contrast sored as yields moved lower. the rate on the ten-year bond closes at a fresh 20 month low on the 30 year it dipped to 2.3%. a record low. oil prices fell to a nearly 6-year low after the government reported record high stockpiles of fuel. two times as much as expected. raising fresh worries of the global glut amid demand. now more on today's big fed decision. >> reporter: janet yellin and fellow monetary policy makers wrapped up the first fed meeting of the year by making clear no rate hike is imminent. the overall economy has been expanding at a solid pace. and thanks to falling energy prices plus a strong dollar inflation has fallen even further below the feds 2% target. reason enough it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. leading economists and fed watchers are looking

so is the fed any closer to raising interest rates? steve liesman looks for answer. >> wall street still sees 2015 as the momentous year where the federal hikes interest rates. but the latest cnbc survey shows wall street pushing those expectations ahead to the point where it's running out of months in the year in which to hike. the survey showed that on average respondents see the fed notching that first rate hike in september. that compares with july in the prior survey. and forecasts for the level of the fed's benchmark interest rate which underpins a lot of rates consumers ultimately pay have come down to .07 of a percentage point for the end of the year. >> i think the fed is a conundrum. if the dollar keeps strengthening, it's clearly impacting multinationals and going to be difficult to raise rates at all this year. >> the fed concludes its two-day january meeting tomorrow. and little change is expected in the all-important policy statement. the fed should still say it remains "patient before raising interest rates." fed chair ja

let's focus on the fed meeting itself. will the content of discussion have changed from the last quarter of the last year where it was focussing on the struggles the global economy had while at home in america things were strong? the most recent set of earnings are starting to say things aren't that strong. could that be to lean back slightly toward the easing type of the equation? >> well it could. it's all in the language. we're looking at small changes in the wording to give the market expectation that the fed won't be as aggressive but we've had a strong run of payrolls and strong corporate earnings elsewhere so the fed has a tricky balancing act here. >> does this mean the stronger u.s. dollar play has less momentum? >> i would say so. the positioning is very strong in favor of strong dollar and i think the market might get disappointed come march. it's too early for fed to change anything between six weeks. being patient, it's too early for them to change anything. >> let's talk about the sell off on wall street yeste

the fed, i think everybody grease the fed distorted rates. the rates should not be at zeros, shouldn't have been at zero for a long time, and yet they're at emergency level for a reason, because the fed sees problems with the economy. you don't? >> i think the u.s. economy is going to grow. i think it's going to grow, it's going to be stable. i don't think it's a boom economy, but you got to -- david: hold on a second, then the fed should not be having emergency levels of interest rates, right? this is a level, this zero interest rate is historically significant, and it is creating bubbles all around the world, because it's not just the fed doing it, all central banks. if the economy is okay, could be doing better, should we be having the emergency interest levels? >> we're assuming that janet yellen is getting it right. we assume that alan greenspan got it right. he got it wrong. there's a lot of things i don't know how the fed's going to react. here's what i do know. what do i know is the world economy is adding 40 million new consumers. fam

we have breaking news to get to from the fed. >> the release of the details of the last fed meeting. let's get to steve liesman. what exactly are we looking at here with the fed minutes? >> the fed minutes for the december meeting that we are waiting for. what we can say is that the fed is saying that it could begin rate hikes at the current level of core inflation. this is new information that 1.4 peace cor 1.4%. they first would need confidence that inflation is going to move back to the 2% target level but they are waiting to do it now at the current level. just hold on before you think the fed is hiking rates. many see global weakness as the key u.s. risk out there. there is also contingent that see upside risk to the economy from better job growth, better gdp numbers and effects of low oil prices. however those are seen as temporary. let me go through details about what the fed is saying about the story. in general they are seen as positive for the economy. it will be a boost to consumer spending but there is concern that lower oil prices could reduce inflation expectations and

liz: but, marty, what would affect the way the fed moves? going to bring up the word inflation, disinflation, which is a slowing down of inflation or maybe even deflation. is that now, first and foremost in front of janet yellen's mind as she looks to make decisions on tightening rates? >> i think they're being very wise about the inflation call. i mean they recognize that inflation is slowing. first of the increase in the dollar. even more after decline in energy prices. they say this is temporary effect and shift in level of prices. it is not an ongoing thing that is going to continue to affect us in 2016. so i think they have made it clear, that they are prepared to raise rates even when inflation rate as they measure it is under 2% because they think they will get back to 2% inflation, if not end of this year, then sometime? 2016. so it is not holding them back. david: marty, what gave the federal reserve the right to declare a 2% inflation rate? 2% sounds pretty low but as saver and consumer over a 10-year period of 20% of my savings is

so i think the fed doesn't want to be sduk at zero. they have no bullets to deal with any downturn and zero is to me the same policy. >> i think they want to get off zero zero. the question is, i think it's about wages. they've told us they have to be reasonably confident inflation is going up. even with the low unemployment rate, if you don't see wages moving up they're confident in inflation moving up to their mandate is not going to be strong enough to warrant the information to cover they need to move off zero. so i think the wage and inflation story is key in terms of timing and fed action. >> okay. michelle, thank you. do you like it here? >> i think this is grey great. i love the vibe. >> we're cooler now, aren't we? >> just the whole background is -- almost like we're players. >> people at home are able to -- >> i love you're able to say aren't we hotter now? >> people at home realize it and it's clear through the tv. i feel it here. >> it's in hd. >> yeah. that's the only problem. it should be fairley wide. >> when we come back

it is not going to keep the fed on the sideline.t as a cue to start hiking rates very gradually and with a destination point. >> your view is that the fed will move sometime in the summer of this year? >> yes it is. is it possible that the fed might start looking at other barometers? >> it might. but it also needs to look at financial stability. the minutes that were released yesterday pointed to the rest of the world using the word important twice. it is an important downside risk for the u.s. economy. if things really deteriorate in the rest of the world, that is what you would need. it is not lift off, but it is solid recovery. >> thank you so much for joining me on this job stay. yet again, mohamed el-erian. thank you so much. great to see you. that does it for today on "in the loop." that is the latest on the fast-moving developments. we will keep our i on the markets in the u.s. ♪ >> it is 56 past the hour. bloomberg television is on the markets. we are 30 minutes into the start of the u.s. trading day on this friday. right no

that is the key in this entire fed picture. rices are doing and the dollar is doing will be problematic for the fed. if we get stronger wage growth, that trumps everything. we have not seen a pickup and wages yet. >> the congressional mandate is jobs versus inflation. wages, she seems to take that as a mandate. >>'s wages don't pick up, how confident can we be in our outlook that the economy can withstand higher interest rates? it has been the key for her in the past two policy cycles. they matter greatly to her. stronger wages are a prerequisite to that that hiking rates. we just don't have any signs yet of accelerating wage growth. >> charles lowe is making the argument that one of the things they did in the u.k. to try to remedy tell poverty is they raised the minimum wage. do you think of we did that in the u.s. we would see the poverty level come down for children? >> minimum wage laws do help poverty. they raise unemployment rates for certain sectors. overall, the literature points to it being a good thing. we have had a w

the fed appears to be sticking with plans to raise interest rates this year for the first time since 2006. fed policymakers have raised their assessment of the u.s. economy and downplayed low-inflation. repeating his pledge to stay patient on raising rates. the shakeup at the world's largest restaurant chain -- the ceo of mcdonald's is stepping down in march. in its worst sales slump in a decade. sales have fallen for more than 2% last year, falling for five straight quarters. he will be replaced by a brit. he previously ran the chain of restaurants in the u.k. fourth-quarter profit beat estimates at europe's biggest lender, deutsche bank. legal expenses dropped. fourth-quarter profit fell at ford battered by losses in europe and south america. they restricted production of its f150 pickup while rolling out a new aluminum body version. facebook sales up in the fourth quarter. expenses rose, too. here is the ceo from last night. >> 2014 was also a year of big investments in our future. this year we made big bet on the next generation of communication and computing platforms. we focused

the fed voted to maintain the federal funds rate zero to a quarter%. skipping more redundant language. here is the key phrase, based on its current assessment the committee judges it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy but reminds everyone this again is data dependent. the vote for this statement, this policy was 10-0 unanimous. melissa, back to you. dierdre: peter -- melissa: peter barnes, thanks so much. let's go back to our panel for reaction. a lot of talk about declining inflation. they repeated that three or four times. >> market is kind of like blowing this off a little bit. melissa: a little bit. popped up 38. now we're up 90. >> i will say this, it is hard for me to translate for the viewer what they should do when we're in an environment that is so dependent on qe and low interest rates. i mean normally if would come out 10 years ago, this report you heard low inflation and solid growth you would be buying stocks like crazy and i just don't know. i don't know what the fed is going to do. melissa: go ahead. >

first the fed releases baitest -- latest bash book report. peter barnes with details. >> melissa, reports from the 12 federal reserve districts suggest that national economy activity continued to expand from with most districts reporting a moderate or modest pace of growth. these let summary that the fed uses at the next policy meeting next month. falling oil and gasoline prices are a major them. for example, the report says quote, overall demand for energy related products and services weakened somewhat while the output of energy related products increased. of course jobs are also the focus at the fed and how fast the economy creates them will be key to when the fed starts to raise short-term interest rates expected sometime this year. on jobs the beige book says, quote, payrolls in variety of sectors expanded moderately during the reporting period. melissa? melissa: peter, thank you so much. let's bring in today's panel. charlie gasparino, fox business senior correspondent. pete hegseth ceo of concerned veterans of america. we have tony saye

get your move in before the fed. n ringgit, this is a currency which has dropped to the lowest level since 2009. oil dropping by more than 2%. that is important to the malaysian economy. they kept rates unchanged. but this is a currency which could trade lower, according to ing. they are saying you could see a level -- seller traveling up, ringgit traveling down. some pressure in the asian and australasian currencies. let's take you to the new zealand the dollar. -- the new zealand dollar. you have a bank remaining on a tightening bias since 2013. he says there is a shift to neutral. a hint that they could counter rates. the sins something -- canada did this. singapore. nine central bank so far. you could see a change from them. anna, back to you. >> the top bloomberg headlines. the chair of the board says greek banks are capable of surviving. she says the banks have done a lot of work to strengthen their balance sheets but faced difficulty. >> the greek banks are facing difficulty right now because of the recent elec

what matters now, the portfolio of the fed. all of those bonds, the securities they bought, what are they going to do with them? how are they going to deleverage? this is unprecedented. >> so, you are looking at oversight on whether they can do those securities, quantitative easing? >> absolutely. >> what about legislation? we have senator paul talking about -- >> i am very interested in the fed, especially the portfolio. i do not want to be a member of the federal board of governors. but as oversight, we should make sure that they are doing right. no other questions about the portfolio of the fed. >> can you have an audit of the fed that does not pass the metal of -- >> it depends on how you define"mettle." what we're talking about our substantive things. >> what about fannie mae and freddie mac? you were big critics about them before the financial crisis. what about the plan to unwind them? >> we will address that and see how far we can go. we need bipartisan support in the senate to do that, but i do not want to bill just for

so, i think, number one, this is tough for the fed. markets -- we haven't seen a labor market like this in decades. you don't see the unemployment rate falling at a percent or more a year. that's rare. 240,000 payrolls in the last few months, more like 280. on the other hand you're going to go into deflation. having said all of that i think it's a bit of a red herring, personally, whether they hike or not. suppose they hike a quarter point. no one thinks the fed's going to be out to kill the economy. this is not -- with deflation, come on. this is not -- so this is going to be in my opinion, more like when they had had the qe and everybody freaked out that the bond market was going to sell off. they did it three time they ended qe. and it rallied. >> is this as bad as it's going to get? and it's going to get better from here? >> i think the u.s. -- as tobias said it's averaged over 4%. today, that's strong growth. i think the next two quarters are also going to be over 3%. >> so -- it's hard to have deflation when the economy is growing

the fed is unlikely to raise interest rates. ok that bit of news and interpreted it as a positive. i don't think it did because of what happened in paris. this sell off was terrorism related to a certain extent. >> everyone worries about it. it could be terror or things that come out of nowhere. if this were to spread and this looks like it's not just paris and other western civilizations, western capital, then what? >> well then if it spreads, i tell you what, we are in big trouble. we panicked when we thought we were going to have some ebola threat. that turned out not killing a lot of people. now terrorists are killing lot of people. the problem is, we don't have an effect i have quote unquote cdc that could contain it. it could pop up anytime. the holland tunnel goes dark. the dow is down. at a super bowl or world series -- >> i reduce it to the market. it's a tragedy. ty play in the market. i think that this is the excuse. if it spreads, the fed will not raise rates it may do qe 4 or 5. >> if it spreads -- >> i don't think s

the fed is holding out for that. silver lining in all of this -- and we should take our in this -- is that gas prices have been declining so much -- in 28 states, below two dollars a gallon. that has a big psychological effect on people. when you look at the consumer confidence numbers, they were fantastic. the best since august 2007. let's not forget the consumer is the key to this economy, representing 20's -- 70% of gdp. maybe just maybe, this is the demand that the economy needed. maybe we will see a revved the consumer because of these prices. >> what about investor confidence? they see a day like this on wall street, what do they think? >> we are off the lows of the session. we were down about 350 and i thought we might see people come in and buy. the u.s. is effectively the only game in town. especially what is happening in europe and asia. you have a federal reserve that will likely continue printing money, continuing with this low interest-rate environment for the foreseeable future. with the fed's help, with

. >>> the fed's dilemma. consumers pay less for a lot of things and that makes the central bank's decision on when to hike interest rates a lot more complicated. steve liesman reports. >>> aftershock. the surprise surge in the swiss frank is still reverberating around the world and today it brought one brokerage firm to its knees. >>> and taking control. our market monitor guest says this is not the year for passive investing and he has a list of stocks he says are worth owning. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for friday january 16th. >>> good evening, everyone and welcome. it is friday and for many of us the start of a three-day weekend. after a weekend of whip saw moves in the market and a disappointing start to the new earnings season this weekend couldn't arrive soon enough. but today was different. stocks snapped a five day losing streak. by the close, the dow was up 190 points. the nasdaq shot up 63 and the s&p added 26 closing back above the 2,000 mark. today's gains however were

what about your perspective on the fed? move on a rate increase, it is the trajectory rather than the timing. they could do something small and leave it there. >> that is true. the fed is wide open in what they can do. i have had a minority opinion that the fed is driven a lot by the financial markets. they are chicken. why did they do qe two and qe3? if we were to get a correction of around 11%, the fed -- it is off the table as far as fed rate hikes go. the fed is driven by financial markets. should the show volatility? should they show any kind of correction? the fed will reverse themselves. the history of the last five years is pretty square. monetary policy is nothing but an emotional reaction to the markets. >> i hear your case on stocks being flat this year based on dismal earnings growth. remember that in this global stage, you have an ecb likely to start easing even more who knows what that is going to do sue -- to asset prices. in japan you have a deflationary spiral. china is on shaky footing. what about the safet

what did the fed say so pleased the marketkets?y will be patient and timeline for raising interest rates. what is pleasing markets, mario draghi his hand is getting very tight. his options are very few with the deflationary reading out of europe. the expectation that the fed will be very patient before it raises rates and mr. draghi will have to do easy money stimulus to get things going in europe. david: sabrina, seeps the fed wants it both way. they want to say the economy is doing well, on the other hand they want to keep zero interest rates. what is the effect of that? >> i'm just concerned about all the currency manipulation. at some point there is no free lunch. we're seeing policies, quantitative easing, how long can this go on. europe is wanting to follow suit. i think at some point this will have bad ramifications. david: paul, what we see in europe, in someplaces like switzerland are negative interest rates. that is, they are so conservative now in terms of being unable to give out any money, that you have to pay them if

i think we're living with it until the fed raises rates once. once they do and we get used to it i think the volatility will come down but until then, we'll be be zigging and zagging. >> more than u.s. markets this year. quickly, before we get to your stock picks, where internationally would you go? >> i think there are tons of opportunities in europe. european equities are going to be a real darling relative to u.s. equities. if you look at the last two years, s&p 500 is really outperformed the morgan stanley all world index. that's going to change. you can actually buy the index that can get you international exposure or dive into europe to get utilities, automotive companies, volkswagen. many that don't appear in the united states. >> why don't we start with a utility national grid which is one of your picks, which has european exposure? >> yes, it does. utilities have been sort of the sector of the year if you will but they're terribly expensive right now. p.e. is over 20 and dominion resource 25 p/e. it's a great place too find if you look f

once the fed starts to move, they may want to go in a measured, slow pace. but if i'm sitting there in the market and i know they're going at a measured, slow but inevitable pace, i'm going get there in five second. the market may get there way ahead of the fed. >> let's get insight from one of the leaders in the ef t-bond strategy. matt, great to have you with us. what are you seeing in terms of flows in or out of bond funds that might indicate how people are positioning ahead of what lloyd blankfein says? maybe a big move ahead of an actual change in rates? >> i think what you're seeing is investors really start to discern between short-term rates, which are much more impacted by the fed and longer term rates like 10-year and 30-year rates which are much more about the global economic picture, deflation, oil, what is happening in europe. if you look at short-term rates, i think definitely we expect those to start to rise throughout this year, asimov closer to the fed actually raising rates. but you're really going see the story play out where we can't just

let's go back and look now at the fed timeline. what you'll see in this next chart here is that they think the word patient comes out of the statement in march. that will give the fed flexibility to raise rates. what you see compared to the prior statement, the prior rate hike was in july and now as we pushed ahead on average to september. push that ahead to april 2016. one more thing we measured tyler. you're going to be able to get a shot here. what will the fed finally get down. treat 1% on fed. yeah -- >> which is now what? sfwler to a water. >> zero to a quarter. >> 12 basis points. >> that's a fairly steep rise. it's a long way off. >> walk with me. >> okay. >> march 2015. let's go back this way. all the way to the first quarter of 2018. it's a long -- >> anonymous phone managers strategists, analysts. exclusive. think about half of them. >> steve, thank you. sue. >> overseas now, guys. he was the most unpopular man in greece. not anymore. voters there are making him a rather unlikely hero. our chief international corresponden

the cnbc fed survey came out today. they did push ahead the average month where they expect that first rate hike to happen to september from july. it's a pretty big bump for three months. the plurality though is still in july but now you have a bunch of other people who are outliers two of which are where ellen is which is well into 2016. i guess i would say it's early to make that call. i probably wouldn't have made that call until i saw what happened to the employment cost index on friday. picking up on what david is talking about, the fed wants to see wages on the way up. if they continue to decline like we got in december bls report payroll report, then i think it's definitely off but that eci could go the other way and there could be some sense that wages are a little bit more buoyant than we think. >> ellen, this is just so fascinating. i don't know what the fed is supposed to do in this situation. look, we're still dealing with people who say even when they do raise interest rates it will be one and done. that's s

you see a rate rise later rather than sooner by the fed. will we have another good year for equities necessarily? >> well i'm not so sure that equities will do as well as they have done in the past but i agree that the fed is not going to raise rates anywhere near as soon as people think. the economy is just not strong enough to sustain that. i don't think the fed risks raising rates too soon. >> with the federal bank leading the story, you're still saying there is no alternative. how can nothing have changed from last year to this year on that front? >> well i think, you know from an investor standpoint you look at the world and just look at commodity prices. look at copper prices. forget energy for a second. copper prices iron ore prices. i continue to think that we have a global demand issue and in that global demand issue central banks are reluck tantd to take the punch bowl away. i think you're going to continue to see the ubers with capitalizations beyond belief because the money has to go somewhere and today is a perfect example of ho

good afternoon. >> the fed is more bullish on the u.s. economy. is new language about inflation running too low, but they expected to eventually rise toward the 2% target and they are factoring and international circumstances. let me walk you through the statement -- first of all, the new language on the economy. information received since the federal open market committee met in december suggests economic activity has expanded at a solid pace. labor market conditions have improved further. some of the new language on inflation

how difficult is it going to be for the fed to raise rates? >> they will probably raise rates this year. the expectation is to have any midyear, contrary to what is expected. the fact that the fed is going to do that is good news in and of itself. it shows that two things are moving in the right direction. employment is up, unemployment down. and inflation is hopefully getting little signs of moving up in the right direction. we have these two indicators which have been extremely well communicated and identified by janet yellen, who has done a terrific job in communicating and getting the right anticipations to market operators. i think that is good news in and of itself. the consequences will be a different story. there will be side effects spillover effects, and volatility. this is unavoidable. in terms of the sheer raising interest, it is clearly a good sign. it is clearly an indication that the u.s. is growing, that it is reducing unemployment, and that prices are on the upside. >> gary, you disagree. [laughter] given what we just heard, yo

the fed will mow over this. will see hence in the minutes and increasingly noted over the next couple of months. already, the downdraft are there. the fed might not have to do that much work, which gives them an option for the september meeting. >> any expected commentary on what is going on in europe, or finding a way to address at the u.s. right now is lonely? [laughter] >> they will not highlighted in the statement, but it will be a question reflected in the minutes. >> what do you think, gina martin adams? >> i think is spot on with the dollar. >> we only like conflict. this is business tv. try again. works well, you have earnings depressing impact on the s&p 500 from the dollar that is greater than the economy. it is a pretty big difference. so, we are experiencing greater pressure via the dollar in the equity market than the fed might have to acknowledge on the broader economy. that is creating little bit of friction for stocks as well right now. i live in the world of stocks not in terms of the economy. w

new note revealing it doesn't see the fed hiking rates. we already talked about this until march 2016. oil prices are forecast to go lower waiting on fed's target of 2%. we wanted them to wait and i told them you wouldn't and i was right. >> here's the thing i will never let you down. melissa: i am. what do you want? i am a trained economist. i have four years degree in economics. what do you want? >> he has a beard like ben bernanke. >> i'm a trained journalist. melissa: you're a trained journalist. >> average guy that watches us should know this if you want to put money in the bank or take massive risks in the markets you're screwed. that is what the federal reserve is telling you. >> it is true what you said before the show you won't shave until the fed raises rates? are you going on record? melissa: you won't shave until the fed raises rates. >> i won't shave until the fed raises rates. >> you have a long beard. >> i won't shave until george, our camera guy, shaves his fro. melissa: that making more sense. look no further than microsoft

the fed. >> it is the first do no harm type of fed meeting. the could just make slight upgrades to the economic assessment and walk away and that would be a successful meeting. we are growing at a 5% annualized rate over the last two quarters. >> let's look at the debate. simon kennedy's quote. the basic idea is that morgan stanley says, we are going to delay. the lowflation expectation presents a persistent downside risk to the u.s. outlook. she is front and center, isn't she? >> absolutely. the fed is trying to be patient. financial conditions are already tightening given the strong appreciation of the dollar. the stronger dollar is going to weigh on the export sector and different profits. it is already starting to create down drafts and slow the economy down. >> i have been chewing on the word patient. it is the fed's way of saying, we're still figuring it out. >> they are still looking at the data. i think what the fed might be missing -- and this is going to be the critical thing to watch -- the minutes of the december meeting indicate th