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Apr 6, 2016
04/16
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BLOOMBERG
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minutes, you follow the fed and you know the market, anything that may be different from a bunch of fedicials? you saw the division about timing. it's going to be june, it looks like and the pushback to say april would make us look more urgent than we are when the fed reduced the number of rate hikes from two to four for the year. the april meeting does not have the press conference and forecast accompanying it, so you would have to put chair yellen in the position of calling a special press call to explain why the fed moved in april or you might have the fed trying to creep rates up to quickly. the only time china has not been focused on was right after the fed delayed and they did not talk about it as much but the interesting issue is how much chair yellen emphasized china as a risk. important that you saw her isolate that risk when you see other people who clearly do not see as much of a risk and that division. i think chair yellen will dominate that for a reason, but it is interesting. jim bullard from the fed was talking about the live meeting. we assume the fed won't do anything b
minutes, you follow the fed and you know the market, anything that may be different from a bunch of fedicials? you saw the division about timing. it's going to be june, it looks like and the pushback to say april would make us look more urgent than we are when the fed reduced the number of rate hikes from two to four for the year. the april meeting does not have the press conference and forecast accompanying it, so you would have to put chair yellen in the position of calling a special press...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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BLOOMBERG
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scarlet: ok, let's go live to the fed. on interest change rates, scarlet, but the federal open market committee drafted a policy statement with a somewhat hawkish tone, and that is a surprise. gone is the reference to risks from global and economic financial developments, which the fed used to explain its decision not to change policy back in march. translation? the fed is not as concerned about external risks to its outlook, and it focuses back on the domestic economy. as you know, the first paragraph of the policy statement is the most key, and in it, we find all kinds of words, all manner of words, that paid sure of a healthier economy -- that paint of a healthier economy, words like solid, strong, and strengthening. still absent in the statement is a reference to balanced risks. as you know, there was much focused on this heading into the meeting, and again, the balanced seen since theen december statement. there are plenty of to be sures. slowing growth and household spending as well as little change in inflation expec
scarlet: ok, let's go live to the fed. on interest change rates, scarlet, but the federal open market committee drafted a policy statement with a somewhat hawkish tone, and that is a surprise. gone is the reference to risks from global and economic financial developments, which the fed used to explain its decision not to change policy back in march. translation? the fed is not as concerned about external risks to its outlook, and it focuses back on the domestic economy. as you know, the first...
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Apr 26, 2016
04/16
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i would not expect the fed to do that. that implies that when you haven't hit the target, you may be tightening a little bit. michael: we will continue our discussion. we will know what the fed is going to do at 2:00 wall street time tomorrow. stay with us on bloomberg for all of your fed coverage. ♪ francine: welcome back. we have live pictures of london and live pictures of york. look at that. london is little bit cloudy. breaking news. michael mckee is in new york. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. reported profits. they had a stronger than expected performance. that has offset the collapse of oil prices. they tried to boost earnings by cutting spending and eliminating jobs. dupont raised its earnings outlook after higher prices moved sales. they plan to merge with dow chemical later this year. it's the biggest combination ever in the chemical industry. in the first drop quarter deposits. revenue fell in every business line. they focused on asia. they are trying to restructure risk the -- risky assets.
i would not expect the fed to do that. that implies that when you haven't hit the target, you may be tightening a little bit. michael: we will continue our discussion. we will know what the fed is going to do at 2:00 wall street time tomorrow. stay with us on bloomberg for all of your fed coverage. ♪ francine: welcome back. we have live pictures of london and live pictures of york. look at that. london is little bit cloudy. breaking news. michael mckee is in new york. let's get straight to...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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the fed hike. omists do not expect one, that there will be interesting things to watch for, and one of the questions has to be that i am interested in, what will they say about the international situation. in the past, they have visited chinese concerns being the cause to because should, but we also know that china has slowed down a lot and there is talk that if they don't go now, they will go in june, but there's the brexit votes, so that will be one aspect i am interested in seeing. michael: you have to ask yourself how cautious does janet yellen want to be? it reminds me of clint eastwood lucky?you feel how far does she want to go in suggesting there is a rate increase in the future? does she want the market to react? what happens if they raise rates? that is good for the economy if the dollar gets weaker and if you raise rates, maybe goes the other way and that is not a good thing for the economy, so look for janet yellen to be as cautious as possible. she will probably live up to her reputation
the fed hike. omists do not expect one, that there will be interesting things to watch for, and one of the questions has to be that i am interested in, what will they say about the international situation. in the past, they have visited chinese concerns being the cause to because should, but we also know that china has slowed down a lot and there is talk that if they don't go now, they will go in june, but there's the brexit votes, so that will be one aspect i am interested in seeing. michael:...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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CNBC
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the fed decision. hampton? pen market committee decided to leave the target range for the fed funds rate at 1.25% in determining the size of future adjustment to that target range, the open market committee says they'll assess realized and economic conditions relative to the objectives of maximum floiment and 2% inflation. this assessment will take into account a wide range of information including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations and readings on financial and international developments. the open market committee goes on to say that in light of the current short fall of inflation from 2%, the committee will carefully monitor progress on its inflation goals. the actual path of the fed funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming dat yach data. since the last meeting in march, essentially the open market committee sees an economy where labor market conditions have improved further even as growth at economic activity appears
the fed decision. hampton? pen market committee decided to leave the target range for the fed funds rate at 1.25% in determining the size of future adjustment to that target range, the open market committee says they'll assess realized and economic conditions relative to the objectives of maximum floiment and 2% inflation. this assessment will take into account a wide range of information including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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that is dependent on the fed. e other thing would be if we saw this enormous move back into risky assets. and while we have seen a recovery in risk appetite after the selloff earlier in the year, there are still a lot of investors out there still concerned that we could see bad news perhaps in china. bad news from e.u. havef course, we still very slow global growth, which, of course, is still confining to some degree risk appetite. require suggest that maybe the best thing for the bank of japan and the fed and the ecb is to do nothing. he says everybody is becoming japanese, not because of economic conditions but they are all using the same solutions. and every time they cut rates, it means they are going to have to cut rates again. is what we're going to see this week a big mistake? jane: of course what we have noticed over the last couple years is a lot more of the side effects, some of the extraordinary monetary policies we have. talk aboute, we can negative interest rates and impacts on banks balance sheets. we
that is dependent on the fed. e other thing would be if we saw this enormous move back into risky assets. and while we have seen a recovery in risk appetite after the selloff earlier in the year, there are still a lot of investors out there still concerned that we could see bad news perhaps in china. bad news from e.u. havef course, we still very slow global growth, which, of course, is still confining to some degree risk appetite. require suggest that maybe the best thing for the bank of japan...
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Apr 6, 2016
04/16
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the fed has to look at the financial markets. if the fed moves too fast, emerging markets are exposed more than they were in the past too bad policy. there will be turmoil in and the outlook for the u.s. economy will go down. in thent to see calm market. april is probably not going to happen. david: i want to ask about the importance of unanimity there. george was the lone dissenter. how important is it for yellen to preserve that consolidation going forward? present asants to much a united front as she can going forward. who was the other person who wanted to raise rates? would they be more willing to vote for a rate move at the april or june meetings? you don't want to get more than two. if you get three, her controll d comes under question. it is important that you bring the committee together on a viewpoint. it in marchough because there is no news conference to get through in april. it will be an interesting discussion in june. lisa: even the front end it seems to be going back to where it was before the minutes were release
the fed has to look at the financial markets. if the fed moves too fast, emerging markets are exposed more than they were in the past too bad policy. there will be turmoil in and the outlook for the u.s. economy will go down. in thent to see calm market. april is probably not going to happen. david: i want to ask about the importance of unanimity there. george was the lone dissenter. how important is it for yellen to preserve that consolidation going forward? present asants to much a united...
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Apr 7, 2016
04/16
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following the release, st. louis fedresident james bullard told bloomberg got a hike could come at any meeting. >> the committee certainly reserves the right to make a move at any time. >> a live meeting is just a meeting where you can debate, is that right? >> we debate at all meetings. all meetings are live meeting's, there is no other way to think about it. manus: did the top fed watchers react? what did they think? >> i think, they want to raise rates but they want to do it at a very gradual pace. a couple of rate hikes this year is probably right. >> june and december. i think the fed is going to be a little overshooting again in terms of what they think they are going to do in 2017. >> they are trapped by their own mandate. their mandate, strictly a domestic mandate. primarily --are are more global and more demanding. >> it is likely what they want insee is called -- is calm the markets, but i think april is not going to happen given what we heard today. manus: let's bring in the head of market strategy. trapped by
following the release, st. louis fedresident james bullard told bloomberg got a hike could come at any meeting. >> the committee certainly reserves the right to make a move at any time. >> a live meeting is just a meeting where you can debate, is that right? >> we debate at all meetings. all meetings are live meeting's, there is no other way to think about it. manus: did the top fed watchers react? what did they think? >> i think, they want to raise rates but they want...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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before we talk about what the fed should do, did you learn anything today about what the fed is going to do? >> not much. to me, much ado about nothing. they did downgrade the global condition and they did not mention june. that has given heart to the long bond by three or four basis points. i think we will know more over , as globalnth or two equity markets and risk markets are stabilized. to me, that is a key for janet yellen. she has assumed the role of global central banker in the last few meetings, indicating global is not just domestic rish's -- risk markets are critical. this may stabilize the stock market and bond prices, it is a sad commentary about the artificiality of yield and the repressioninancial going on for almost six years now. >> you have got to wonder how much control she has over markets. if they do something that moves the dollar, instead of moving atital markets in general, this point, is it just a circular effort by central banks to do more that keeps economies from breaking out? i think that is true with the boj and the ecb. we know the raise in interest rates
before we talk about what the fed should do, did you learn anything today about what the fed is going to do? >> not much. to me, much ado about nothing. they did downgrade the global condition and they did not mention june. that has given heart to the long bond by three or four basis points. i think we will know more over , as globalnth or two equity markets and risk markets are stabilized. to me, that is a key for janet yellen. she has assumed the role of global central banker in the...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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as fast as the fed expected. they will be on pause until they seen elevated increase in the economy. elevated increase in corporate earnings. plot tells us the fomc still plans to raise rates by 50 basis points this year. the market tells us we will only hike.e .5 basis point jamie dimon says he is worried the fed will have to raise rates to quickly to catch up with inflation. the market tells us we will only see one 25 basis point hike. around that, there is very little inflation. we have seen increases in energy prices from those very deep lows. i don't see any evidence at this moment for inflation. i can paint the scenario why inflation will pick up in 2017. i don't think that is an issue for 2016. they have essentially another seven months to determine that path. i would be in the camp of 25 at best this year. erik: at best, and possibly flat? happenset's see what with the spanish elections in june, the brexit elections in june, how the u.s. economy performs in the second quarter. mood intoe consumer's the pri
as fast as the fed expected. they will be on pause until they seen elevated increase in the economy. elevated increase in corporate earnings. plot tells us the fomc still plans to raise rates by 50 basis points this year. the market tells us we will only hike.e .5 basis point jamie dimon says he is worried the fed will have to raise rates to quickly to catch up with inflation. the market tells us we will only see one 25 basis point hike. around that, there is very little inflation. we have seen...
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Apr 25, 2016
04/16
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in this hour we will preview the feds meeting this week but the only economist to believe the fed willes until 2017. we also have the ceo of equinox, harvey spevak jonathan:. apple reports earnings tomorrow. get later in the week we u.s. gdp numbers. first, a check ahead of the open. 90 minutes away and futures stay negative. the s&p 500 futures are negative three. in europe after two straight weeks of gains, we start on the back foot. business confidence came in on the session a little bit weaker than expected for the previous months. let's switch up the board. stronger this monday up about .3%. yields have pushed that lower with a basis point. at $43.44. by .7% let's get back to stocks. matt: yes, let's take a look at crude forces being down. this take a look at what crude is doing. the only one of these four that has reported earnings already -- and schlumberger is at a six-month high itself. crude was at a five month high on friday but it is coming off of the highs and as a result, you see numbers that have yet to report earnings are still down. conical phillips is out tomorrow, ma
in this hour we will preview the feds meeting this week but the only economist to believe the fed willes until 2017. we also have the ceo of equinox, harvey spevak jonathan:. apple reports earnings tomorrow. get later in the week we u.s. gdp numbers. first, a check ahead of the open. 90 minutes away and futures stay negative. the s&p 500 futures are negative three. in europe after two straight weeks of gains, we start on the back foot. business confidence came in on the session a little bit...
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Apr 7, 2016
04/16
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not so much what is the fed going to do at the meeting? what can we learn from these fed chairman about their policies and how they shaped u.s. economic policy, but their thinking and how they built and -- consensus with other members of the fed? chris: that will be interesting. volcker ran into some issues with the committee at one time where some of the people were voting against him. it is extraordinarily difficult. i remember what yellen said. i asked her one time, these people are saying this about policy and this. she goes, what can i tell you? we don't always sing is a chorus the same song, the same tune. jobhas done a pretty good given that she's only been on the job two years. she seems to be quite a strong chair. mark: it was interesting because what i heard this event was going to take place and you and i were going to be up here, the one thing of wanted to try to get your thoughts on -- i am more interested in ben bernanke. as a student of u.s. economic history, in particular a fierce student of the great depression, his legacy
not so much what is the fed going to do at the meeting? what can we learn from these fed chairman about their policies and how they shaped u.s. economic policy, but their thinking and how they built and -- consensus with other members of the fed? chris: that will be interesting. volcker ran into some issues with the committee at one time where some of the people were voting against him. it is extraordinarily difficult. i remember what yellen said. i asked her one time, these people are saying...
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May 1, 2016
05/16
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CSPAN2
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the fed's mission is to protect the persons, we haven't even seen the fed hitting its inflation target, by that metric, it has not been, but as you alluded precedented period and zero interest rates and negative interest rates in parts of the world and that has all the other consequences, ben bernanke would say that low interest rates make prices go up. that's exactly what it's supposed to do. it's one of the three channels, which is cheaper to buy and the second caused currency to decrease and puts people back to work and the third is that other asset prices go up, so buying a house is cheaper. i don't know unless anybody does what the effect of all these asset prices increases might be and other related things, so for example, people like -- i forget his name, the head of the reserve bank of india, when the u.s. interest rates get so low, money goes around the rest of the world because people look for yield, that's extremely destabilizing in places like india or smaller economies and when u.s. start raising rates it's going to come all back. i think the jury is out on what the impact
the fed's mission is to protect the persons, we haven't even seen the fed hitting its inflation target, by that metric, it has not been, but as you alluded precedented period and zero interest rates and negative interest rates in parts of the world and that has all the other consequences, ben bernanke would say that low interest rates make prices go up. that's exactly what it's supposed to do. it's one of the three channels, which is cheaper to buy and the second caused currency to decrease and...
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Apr 26, 2016
04/16
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how large does it blue for the fed? -- had jim down plating that downplaying that are we know this will happen 10 days after the next meeting before the outcome? >> that is one of the reasons we're in july instead of june. it depends on how financial markets are feeling ahead of the june meeting. there is a chance they could be on edge or maybe it is a non-issue. late april, it is hard to say but it seems like a reasonable possibility that financial markets could -- the fed would not want to add to that. fed you think a is satisfied with how they think the rate is, -- >> with the labor market, for sure. some have been skeptical about things like the petition patient rate, coming out and saying, what we seeing is looking pretty good. i think hawks and doves are all pretty unified in thinking the labor market is good. i think the issues now our gdp. we can say, q1 gdp, but you do want to feel like you're seeing a balance. the more important thing is the inflation story. we do not want to get into a japan scenario inflation
how large does it blue for the fed? -- had jim down plating that downplaying that are we know this will happen 10 days after the next meeting before the outcome? >> that is one of the reasons we're in july instead of june. it depends on how financial markets are feeling ahead of the june meeting. there is a chance they could be on edge or maybe it is a non-issue. late april, it is hard to say but it seems like a reasonable possibility that financial markets could -- the fed would not want...
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Apr 7, 2016
04/16
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francine: why is the fed so concerned about it? they trying not to do something that would upset the chinese? >> as i said, the fed probably is using global financial conditions and global volatility to explain and buy them time before they have more visibility on what happens inside the u.s. pretty, the u.s. is a close economy. exports do not matter nearly as much as they matter for china but even for the u.k. in the u.k. you have twice is much export dependency than the u.s. u.s. employment and u.s. growth -- they are using what happens around the world, volatility till february and china doubt, to buy them time. seconds, apart from wage inflation, everything else is on track in u.s. >> yes, wage inflation is taking time because most wage increases have been on the lower pay. that does not really make a big problem. take the corporate sector. the ability of corporates to maintain earnings. the consumer is doing pretty well. i don't expect the u.s. to enter into recession, but this talk of -- between corporate warnings and consumer
francine: why is the fed so concerned about it? they trying not to do something that would upset the chinese? >> as i said, the fed probably is using global financial conditions and global volatility to explain and buy them time before they have more visibility on what happens inside the u.s. pretty, the u.s. is a close economy. exports do not matter nearly as much as they matter for china but even for the u.k. in the u.k. you have twice is much export dependency than the u.s. u.s....
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Apr 25, 2016
04/16
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one is the fed effective rate. one is deemed to be the risk-free rate. nds invest in a rate for everybody. the spread is a little bit bigger than this. the second thing to highlight is the triple be spread. you noted earlier that came down. the interesting thing about this is the reason it came down because of quantitative policies from the global central-bank. attractive interest rate policy has gone through these interest-rate policies over the last few years. positive interest-rate policy, zero interest rate policy. the power behind the fed tightening is simply investors globally who are prone to negative richest rates are looking to find positive returns. that positive interest-rate is driving the corporate spread. hear the propaganda to that. more important for investors, this is not just simply short-term proposition. people who are plagued with the idea of negative interest rates will look globally, whether you -- a japanese francine: we have a great story on the bloomberg, calling it the most dangerous bond market in history. they are talking abou
one is the fed effective rate. one is deemed to be the risk-free rate. nds invest in a rate for everybody. the spread is a little bit bigger than this. the second thing to highlight is the triple be spread. you noted earlier that came down. the interesting thing about this is the reason it came down because of quantitative policies from the global central-bank. attractive interest rate policy has gone through these interest-rate policies over the last few years. positive interest-rate policy,...
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Apr 29, 2016
04/16
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KQED
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but don't they have to report cyber theft from the fed? or not? >> that's what we thought going into this. steve and i were both surprised when we asked this fed official and he said no, there's no rule or regulation that requires them to report it to anybody if there's a cyber theft out of an account at the new york fed. with $3 trillion sitting in those international accounts, that's a lot of money. as we know, bank robbers go where the money is. >> is there no central bank authority anywhere in the world, or why can't the fed of new york tell banks whose security they don't trust, you've got to tighten up or you can't do business with sinus. >> reporter: ultimately there is none. that's part of the fact that this is a global disbursed system. these are independent central banks around the world that have banking relationships with the new york fed. the fed sends them guidance and requirents for cyber security but in their own boiler plate they also say that each of these central banks around the world have to use its own judgment for what it con
but don't they have to report cyber theft from the fed? or not? >> that's what we thought going into this. steve and i were both surprised when we asked this fed official and he said no, there's no rule or regulation that requires them to report it to anybody if there's a cyber theft out of an account at the new york fed. with $3 trillion sitting in those international accounts, that's a lot of money. as we know, bank robbers go where the money is. >> is there no central bank...
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Apr 25, 2016
04/16
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you mentioned the fed meeting this week. there is no press congress and we do not expect a lot of data. he looks like inflation expectations are working higher. if you look at the 10 year, the yield is higher for the sixth straight session. it is part of a move we see. also been watching inflation expectations. look at the five year breakeven, we have seen an increase. here is the increase we have been seeing. this is another gauge of inflation expectations on the part of market participants. even though we are not seeing any kind of probability being priced into the market, there will be a rate increase this week and there is an increasing that inflation will start to move higher. it will be interesting to hear what the fed has to say. lisa: especially because inflation has been for so many years. now it's check on the news this afternoon. mark crumpton has the news. mark: returning to united states after history to saudi arabia. earlier today, the president and heads of state of france and italy and the united kingdom and g
you mentioned the fed meeting this week. there is no press congress and we do not expect a lot of data. he looks like inflation expectations are working higher. if you look at the 10 year, the yield is higher for the sixth straight session. it is part of a move we see. also been watching inflation expectations. look at the five year breakeven, we have seen an increase. here is the increase we have been seeing. this is another gauge of inflation expectations on the part of market participants....
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Apr 7, 2016
04/16
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the fed not raising as quickly. e ecb not using currency in the late it may have been in the past. but that together and you get a rise in the yen. david: if you are shinzo abe, you are more concerned about the economy than anything else. this makes his job much more difficult. if he is trying to get inflation and growth going, a strong yen hurts them. economythe japanese used to have lower commodity prices, will be good for the economy to import most of their goods. getting back to the move in the end, you had a great chart earlier, it has been in a downtrend, we see big move but this move in the last several months is barely even a blip on the screen. the long-term trend of the yen has been weaker. >> the magnitude of some of the moves we are seeing in the japanese yen. >> here is what it has done today. all of the major currencies that have a cross with the yen are seeing declines, the south african rand has consistently seen the deepest declines. you can flip this to look at year to date and you see similar movem
the fed not raising as quickly. e ecb not using currency in the late it may have been in the past. but that together and you get a rise in the yen. david: if you are shinzo abe, you are more concerned about the economy than anything else. this makes his job much more difficult. if he is trying to get inflation and growth going, a strong yen hurts them. economythe japanese used to have lower commodity prices, will be good for the economy to import most of their goods. getting back to the move in...
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Apr 28, 2016
04/16
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the fed skips a hike but leaves june on the table. deutsche bank beats shares, posting surprise profit. the ceo cuts costs. upwardly mobile. facebook tops estimates; zuckerberg pushes for more control and investors like with a seat. this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom keene is off. vonnie, we have a great day. some people were a little disappointed by central-bank action, but i would argue that that that was more hawkish ends the boj is just trying to surprise us. vonnie: wringing their hands little bit. nothing to impact the markets, and the new zealand central bank doing nothing as well. francine: it certainly is. let's get to the first word with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. a shock today from tokyo. japan's at central bank has held off on expanding monetary stimulus. it has the yen surging and u.s. stock futures falling. the bank of japan decided to take more time to assess the impact of negative interest rate. policymakers are betting it will lead to more lending. peace talks in syria have envoyd and as special wants russia and t
the fed skips a hike but leaves june on the table. deutsche bank beats shares, posting surprise profit. the ceo cuts costs. upwardly mobile. facebook tops estimates; zuckerberg pushes for more control and investors like with a seat. this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom keene is off. vonnie, we have a great day. some people were a little disappointed by central-bank action, but i would argue that that that was more hawkish ends the boj is just trying to surprise us. vonnie: wringing...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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it is decision day for the fed. a rate hike is not expected at all. vestors will be closely watched for any signals on the future. falling afterres 51 consecutive quarters of sales -- sales growth comes to an end. betty: yahoo! reaching a deal with activist investor starboard value to put for new independent reference on the board. that of earth a proxy war. shares of you who are fluctuating on the news. let's head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest, including breaking news again on the housing market pending home sales today. >> right. we have watched all of these, this one coming in and it looks like it is better than estimated. different than some of the economic data we got today, an increase of 1.4%, and that is to half of a percent estimated by analysts. the number coming in better than estimated but not showing much lunch overall. nasdaq issingly, the down three quarters of 1%. comprising 7% of the nasdaq composite or the s&p in the dow are little changed. the other earnings news we also have out today. take a look at the groups
it is decision day for the fed. a rate hike is not expected at all. vestors will be closely watched for any signals on the future. falling afterres 51 consecutive quarters of sales -- sales growth comes to an end. betty: yahoo! reaching a deal with activist investor starboard value to put for new independent reference on the board. that of earth a proxy war. shares of you who are fluctuating on the news. let's head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest, including breaking news...
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Apr 11, 2016
04/16
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the biggest risk i think is for the fed. ey do want to let interest rates move up but they have got to do it gradually and they did such a good job at anchoring expectations at the zero bound that no one believes inflation could rise again. that is why i think that you look through some of janet yellen's comments and she talks about the asymmetric balance with interest rates. that if they were to lack it, they have a plenty of room to raise rates but if they were to air on the other side, they don't have as much room. i think they want to be very patient and let inflation expectations continue to build. scarlet: one of the narratives is that if inflation does pick up, it might pick up quickly and leave the fed flat-footed. do you believe the fed has more control over slowing down inflation or preventing deflation? they clearly believe they have more room to get a handle ramps upion as it quickly. that is a risk they are willing to take right now yet the markets don't believe it yet but i think the fed will continue to do just
the biggest risk i think is for the fed. ey do want to let interest rates move up but they have got to do it gradually and they did such a good job at anchoring expectations at the zero bound that no one believes inflation could rise again. that is why i think that you look through some of janet yellen's comments and she talks about the asymmetric balance with interest rates. that if they were to lack it, they have a plenty of room to raise rates but if they were to air on the other side, they...
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Apr 14, 2016
04/16
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making it unlikely the fed will raise rates soon. cannot miss. arlet: all the asset classes or range bound. it looks like the smallest move so far this month. oil prices and go places all decline. and oil prices all decline. alix: one area of stocks is the and small-cap stocks broke above the 200 day moving average. is thaty breakout, and an indicator to where the market could be headed. meanwhile, global government debt markets, lower yields. that is the japanese 40 year yield plunging to a new low. i want to look at ireland. they had a 10 year bond auction today. ireland still doesn't have a government. yieldhart is the average on 10 year bond auctions in ireland. that continues to plunge to a new low. ireland borrowing money at its lowest level ever this white not having a government. the singapore dollar tumbling in value, the u.s. dollar tumbling. singapore's bank unexpectedly shifted gears, adopting a neutral policy, the first time since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. what does this mean? one of the most trade sensitive econom
making it unlikely the fed will raise rates soon. cannot miss. arlet: all the asset classes or range bound. it looks like the smallest move so far this month. oil prices and go places all decline. and oil prices all decline. alix: one area of stocks is the and small-cap stocks broke above the 200 day moving average. is thaty breakout, and an indicator to where the market could be headed. meanwhile, global government debt markets, lower yields. that is the japanese 40 year yield plunging to a...
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Apr 6, 2016
04/16
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it sort of negates what the fed does. e long and is going to stay flat because we have a safe haven. is that a good thing? see inthey would like to , it would bed helpful to the u.s. economy if short rates were up somewhat so that the smaller banks, particularly the savings banks and local banks could attract savings deposits and have that money there to lend to local area businesses. have beenadvisors saying for two and a half or three years that this is the problem. not a problem for the little bank -- for the big banks, but it's a big problem for the little banks. it would be good to have money more freely available to small local business organizations. that would be a very good thing. iey went up one time and what is causing the money to come from some of these areas. some of them don't have any money left. alix: we're going to take a quick break. scarlet: a warning sign from global bond yields. after theve yields interest rate was cut to counter inflation. ♪ alix: "what'd you miss?" global bond yields falling to a re
it sort of negates what the fed does. e long and is going to stay flat because we have a safe haven. is that a good thing? see inthey would like to , it would bed helpful to the u.s. economy if short rates were up somewhat so that the smaller banks, particularly the savings banks and local banks could attract savings deposits and have that money there to lend to local area businesses. have beenadvisors saying for two and a half or three years that this is the problem. not a problem for the...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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how does the fed play this here? >> if you look at the march 16th minutes they pretty much say there is going on the gradual increases in the fed funds rate. and i'm thinking that we're going to see in june. the u.s. economy has been fine. slowly just going up and up every single month. job creations first two months have averaged 209,000. unemployment rate is around 5 or 4.. the dollar has weakened a bit, which is good it. helps u.s. exporters and everything. the only caveat is internationally there is some issues out there internationally. i feel confident the rates will be increased by the fed in june, after a june meeting. and also one other time this year, probably at the september or december meeting. you have to remember the fed wants to get the fed funds rate up to about 3.5 and it is way belov there now. and it is between one quarter and one-half point. they want to get it up if nothing else to give them ammo when the next recession hits. we're still at very low rates and then the fed doesn't have a whole lot
how does the fed play this here? >> if you look at the march 16th minutes they pretty much say there is going on the gradual increases in the fed funds rate. and i'm thinking that we're going to see in june. the u.s. economy has been fine. slowly just going up and up every single month. job creations first two months have averaged 209,000. unemployment rate is around 5 or 4.. the dollar has weakened a bit, which is good it. helps u.s. exporters and everything. the only caveat is...
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Apr 8, 2016
04/16
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when you hear that kind of concern, the fed is very much more a global fed than it was under volcker. paul volcker raised rates and thwarted inflation. greenspan butchered bond markets twice by raising rates in 1994. and look at this, the lockstep is that he made in the early 2000's. treasuries have been demolished in terms of yield. saying toat overall you? ramin: i think what is key is where we are headed. what is the ultimate level of the fed funds rate going to be? that depends on the level of growth, which has been coming down steadily over the past 30, 40 years. what we expecting is that the terminal rate is going to be 2.9%. on your chart, that is a lot lower than in the past. manus: i'm going to all this up as well. that is what markets are really getting the hang of. the fed hiked rates for the first time in december. the boj went negative. msci. we go into negative rates here. we are beginning to fade. we had disbelief. there is a lack of belief in terms of the drug that is being given to us, which is monetary policy. ramin: what is interesting in the u.s. is that the fed do
when you hear that kind of concern, the fed is very much more a global fed than it was under volcker. paul volcker raised rates and thwarted inflation. greenspan butchered bond markets twice by raising rates in 1994. and look at this, the lockstep is that he made in the early 2000's. treasuries have been demolished in terms of yield. saying toat overall you? ramin: i think what is key is where we are headed. what is the ultimate level of the fed funds rate going to be? that depends on the level...
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Apr 7, 2016
04/16
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and to rotation of the fed minutes. the upside is that maybe -- with dovish representation of the fed minutes. the averages are now may be giving up their gains or getting closer to it. the yen has really been the big market story of the day. it continues to push higher to its level since october 2014 versus the u.s. dollar. 1.0 -- 108. we have to look at options trading on the end. we have the highest level of in optionsf volume that we have seen since february. this is something that definitely has picked up. we have also seen a lot of folks who has been saying that the yen rally will not last. they have been giving up on that view as they have been forced into it. alix: this is the third day the s&p has swung 1%. we've haven't -- we haven't seen that since february. and gold is a beneficiary of that. julie: indeed. we have seen gold do well with -- once again. in terms of some of the other commodities we are watching, oil and natural gas, oil resuming its declines as well today after getting a lift yesterday. a substa
and to rotation of the fed minutes. the upside is that maybe -- with dovish representation of the fed minutes. the averages are now may be giving up their gains or getting closer to it. the yen has really been the big market story of the day. it continues to push higher to its level since october 2014 versus the u.s. dollar. 1.0 -- 108. we have to look at options trading on the end. we have the highest level of in optionsf volume that we have seen since february. this is something that...
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Apr 6, 2016
04/16
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i think the fed should probably normalize rates here. this is a chance. >> chris, thanks so much for joining us this morning. >> always refreshing to get his positive view. a minute left. i want to show you the dow transports. yesterday broke below the 200-moving day amplg. it's been a leader in this market. it has gone down in the last few sessions. is that a bad signal for stocks or will it rebound today? >> quickly, results of our twitter question. 48% said yes. 52% said no. much more on that debate coming up on "squawk box." that's it for "worldwide exchange." have a nice morning. going on h? oh hey allison. i'm val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. val from voya? yeah, val from voya. quick question, what are voya retirement squirrels doing in my house? we're putting away acorns. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? no, i'm more like a metaphor. okay, a spokes-metaphor. no, i'm... you're a spokes-metaphor. yeah. ok. see how voya can help you get organized at
i think the fed should probably normalize rates here. this is a chance. >> chris, thanks so much for joining us this morning. >> always refreshing to get his positive view. a minute left. i want to show you the dow transports. yesterday broke below the 200-moving day amplg. it's been a leader in this market. it has gone down in the last few sessions. is that a bad signal for stocks or will it rebound today? >> quickly, results of our twitter question. 48% said yes. 52% said...
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Apr 9, 2016
04/16
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the fed has not, the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. the jargon is called 300 bases points. what is it going to do now given there are not 300 points? >> it is a great question. there is no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is constant every year. sort of 10-15 percent. we cannot forecast it. there is no reason to think just because we have been seven years in recovery doesn't mean we are due for another recession at all. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet's early analysis, we are facing some risks like developments globally which are creating head winds for the united states. productivity growth is only modest which is also a problem. but the domestic u.s. any is moving forward. households are strong financially speaking. housing sectors continuing to expand and so on. i don't see any reason to think a recession is anymore likely than was in 2015 and 2014. it is true if a recession were to begin we would
the fed has not, the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. the jargon is called 300 bases points. what is it going to do now given there are not 300 points? >> it is a great question. there is no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is constant every year. sort of 10-15 percent. we cannot forecast it. there is no reason to think just because we have been seven years in recovery doesn't mean we...
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Apr 6, 2016
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the fed had a bunch of debates. ed whether they were at full employment or whether or not still further to go on employment. they debated the risk from global growth and they also debated inflation. some saw signs of brewing inflation in the recent rise and others said, you know what, temporary factors, very similar to janet yellen talked about the fed chair saying that she thought that the recent rises were factors that were volatile and could go away in the future. finally, almost all saw rates below trend or long run rate, all the way through 2018. had that april debate. it didn't seem to carry in terms of the majority. but there are a bunch of folks out there who wanted to hike rates in april. and we heard from most of them, i should assume, five or six fed officials. but not necessarily on the voting side of things. participants are those who do not vote, may vote, but not -- but not all of them and members are the ones -- didn't see that same debate among the voters. >> we talked about this idea of a fractious
the fed had a bunch of debates. ed whether they were at full employment or whether or not still further to go on employment. they debated the risk from global growth and they also debated inflation. some saw signs of brewing inflation in the recent rise and others said, you know what, temporary factors, very similar to janet yellen talked about the fed chair saying that she thought that the recent rises were factors that were volatile and could go away in the future. finally, almost all saw...
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Apr 29, 2016
04/16
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-- then the fed to change that. talk a little bit more about central-bank action him and our thanks to bloomberg news' neil borofsky on his paper with the panama papers. coming up, an exclusive interview later on with mr. kaplan of the federal reserve of dallas. he is giving a speech today. we have a look at the prepared remarks, and he is saying that he thinks the growth outlook for 2016 should be around 2%. he is talking about inflation, also about the risks coming from china, that the spillovers there are likely to spill over into emerging markets in the u.s. he is not a voting member, but he is an influential member of the federal reserve. robert kaplan, that interview later today, 10:30 a.m. in new york, 3:30 p.m. in london. ♪ francine: you are watching "bloomberg surveillance." i am francie likewise in london. vonnie quinn is in new york. to work out the bugs in a new chip-based card. have been complaints from retailers about slow checkout times, so there is new software to make the process faster. the new card
-- then the fed to change that. talk a little bit more about central-bank action him and our thanks to bloomberg news' neil borofsky on his paper with the panama papers. coming up, an exclusive interview later on with mr. kaplan of the federal reserve of dallas. he is giving a speech today. we have a look at the prepared remarks, and he is saying that he thinks the growth outlook for 2016 should be around 2%. he is talking about inflation, also about the risks coming from china, that the...
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Apr 13, 2016
04/16
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a bit weak in the last month or two. regional fed banks speak to ceos in the districts over the course of this period. consumer spending rose modestly in most districts. that is a bit of a qualitative change. this is all qualitative information and not based directly on quantitative data. business spending and real estate activity also expanded relative to the previous page book. just to further highlight that economic conditions domestically do seem fairly robust my credit conditions did not just improve, the commercial banks in these 12 regional fed districts largely reported that lending is becoming more competitive. banks are competing with each other and that is putting pressure on interest margins. the banks are very eager to extend credit, which should guests -- suggests the is goodng credit because you just want your principal. pretty impressive. let's get to the first word news this afternoon. mark: authorities in spain have arrested a frenchman they believe supplied weapons to one of the suspects in the deadly january 2015
a bit weak in the last month or two. regional fed banks speak to ceos in the districts over the course of this period. consumer spending rose modestly in most districts. that is a bit of a qualitative change. this is all qualitative information and not based directly on quantitative data. business spending and real estate activity also expanded relative to the previous page book. just to further highlight that economic conditions domestically do seem fairly robust my credit conditions did not...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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let's turn to the fed and your thoughts on the fed.here is growth, and might not be stunning, but there is growth. talk about the distinction between the strength in the u.s. concernsn the clear they have about the global story. >> that was a really fascinating bit. thingsas always been about global markets, going back to 1998. i think it has become more explicit over the past 12 months and that was made most clear in september last year when we had and in the crisis first rate hike was postponed. go to this year, all of a sudden we have the turmoil which i would argue was generated indirectly by the strong dollar. the fed suddenly backed off, and then we go to march. i think it presents an becauseing conundrum you could argue, looking at the u.s. economy, they could do with a rate hike. >> i have a chart that shows u.s. deflation hedges getting cheaper. unlike australia, it seems in the u.s. the concern is on the other side about inflation. >> may be to strengthen the dollar feeds into that over time. the problem is from their if oil
let's turn to the fed and your thoughts on the fed.here is growth, and might not be stunning, but there is growth. talk about the distinction between the strength in the u.s. concernsn the clear they have about the global story. >> that was a really fascinating bit. thingsas always been about global markets, going back to 1998. i think it has become more explicit over the past 12 months and that was made most clear in september last year when we had and in the crisis first rate hike was...
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Apr 1, 2016
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the number the fed is really looking at is the core pce.-year, we are seeing it run it 1.67%. that is below the inflation target. if you trying to inform yourself, you now want to look at these two elements. yearat basis, we are not -- there yet. betty: the fed has taken care of one mandate, now it's inflation. it's your turn. caroline: i am talking about apple. i'm talking about the pain some of the european suppliers are feeling. they been kicked off the list. this is a german maker of led chips. it's no longer as important. this is the supply chain. revenuews you how much they get from all of its customers and suppliers. check out one he customer. apparently, they are less important. they have been kicked off that top suppliers list. they have been replaced by the lips. they managed to go up toward the end. they looked with a market valuation. apple struck them off the list of key suppliers. it's an important one. this is a great function. you can run it on your bloomberg. see all the suppliers when you want to dig into the details. grea
the number the fed is really looking at is the core pce.-year, we are seeing it run it 1.67%. that is below the inflation target. if you trying to inform yourself, you now want to look at these two elements. yearat basis, we are not -- there yet. betty: the fed has taken care of one mandate, now it's inflation. it's your turn. caroline: i am talking about apple. i'm talking about the pain some of the european suppliers are feeling. they been kicked off the list. this is a german maker of led...
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Apr 27, 2016
04/16
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we are awaiting the fed, of course. oil and gas, the best performance. glaxosmithkline shares reporting the first increase in profits since 2014, we had an earnings beat as well. hiv medicines offsetting declines in advair. is norway's biggest oil company, look at the shares up by 6% today. earlier today, it announced profits fell by 37% for the first quarter. it was still a beat. profits unexpectedly rose. it reduced costs. offset the weakest oil prices in 12 years. it is 75% owned by the norwegian government. joining bp in an earnings beat. we had u.k. gdp for the first .4%.er rising showing the lopsided nature of the u.k. economy. services expanded .6%. that was lower than the previous quarter. we had construction output also dropping. it plays into both sides of the referendum debate. the economy is doing ok, we need to stay in the eu. those against staying will say look at the global economy, look at china, look at the rest, there is something for everyone, but the global economy is slowing. betty: we have to put this to rest. the anticipation is ki
we are awaiting the fed, of course. oil and gas, the best performance. glaxosmithkline shares reporting the first increase in profits since 2014, we had an earnings beat as well. hiv medicines offsetting declines in advair. is norway's biggest oil company, look at the shares up by 6% today. earlier today, it announced profits fell by 37% for the first quarter. it was still a beat. profits unexpectedly rose. it reduced costs. offset the weakest oil prices in 12 years. it is 75% owned by the...
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Apr 6, 2016
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scarlet: it is good the fed is making progress. nks around the world are not so much. sweden plus central bank said it is time for a rethink on how central banks were, making clear that he is open to changing how theral banks were and have curve on japan. you wonder if this will be a conversation that wilson be taken up here, if the head needs to be looking at changing up its inflation gauge. alix: i have the awesome gauge on the bloomberg for that, looking at what the inflation target is for countries compared to what they actually are. it just is a nice way to illustrate it. euro is a great area to look at. the target is 2%. they are at -.1%. switzerland, .8%, but they are looking at 2%. it goes to show you how off central banks are when it comes to targets around the world. look at japan, right? joe: we have seen this idea of talking about helicopter money, direct financing of spending. i do not think we will get more on that today, but there will be more coming in the future. maybe it will be a topic of discussion on thursday. a
scarlet: it is good the fed is making progress. nks around the world are not so much. sweden plus central bank said it is time for a rethink on how central banks were, making clear that he is open to changing how theral banks were and have curve on japan. you wonder if this will be a conversation that wilson be taken up here, if the head needs to be looking at changing up its inflation gauge. alix: i have the awesome gauge on the bloomberg for that, looking at what the inflation target is for...
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Apr 29, 2016
04/16
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what does the movement mean, at least on the fed's part? oes it signal about the global economy as we turn the calendar to may? joining us now, richard, rate strategist. we need a name for this segment, richard. we got to come up with a name. let's start with this first chart. it's a lovely chart. 's a five-day chart of the u.s. two-year yield. just talk us through the knee-jerk reaction and thereafter. >> i think the great thing is it shows the confusion that was -- that markets participants had directly in the wake of the announcement. i've read reports of this being a humanish minutes, being dovish, and the way that sort of -- the yields jumped and then tailed off really, really quickly shows that sort of mixed reaction. but the fact that we're now quite a bit lower than we were before the fed meeting in that two-year yield shows that the market is sort of saying the fed is keeping rates steady, they're not going to move any time soon, and even we might not get a rate rise this year. >> robert kaplan was just on, the dallas fed president,
what does the movement mean, at least on the fed's part? oes it signal about the global economy as we turn the calendar to may? joining us now, richard, rate strategist. we need a name for this segment, richard. we got to come up with a name. let's start with this first chart. it's a lovely chart. 's a five-day chart of the u.s. two-year yield. just talk us through the knee-jerk reaction and thereafter. >> i think the great thing is it shows the confusion that was -- that markets...
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Apr 8, 2016
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the fed has not. the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cut interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what is it going to do now, given that there aren't 300 points to cut? mr. bernanke: excellent question. let me just say first that as janet has pointed out, there's no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is more or less constant every year. though we can't forecast them, there's no reason to think that just because we've been in seven years of recovery, doesn't mean we are due for another recession. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet's early analysis, we are facing some risks like developments globally, which are creating headwinds in the united states. productivity growth is only modest, which is a problem. the domestic u.s. economy is moving toward. households are pretty strong. housing sectors continue to expand. i don't see any particular reason to think a recession is it waskely in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014. it is true that if a rec
the fed has not. the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cut interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what is it going to do now, given that there aren't 300 points to cut? mr. bernanke: excellent question. let me just say first that as janet has pointed out, there's no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is more or less constant every year. though we can't forecast them, there's no reason to think that just because we've been...
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Apr 26, 2016
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the fed allowed the dollar to play that role. the fed is not doing that anymore. on the dollar has weakened is not because we all that comfortable with the idea of the shallow rate path, it's because the said has backed away. this pointd say at is that the fed has pretty much said they no longer want to play as the pressure valve in the market. at this point the fed cannot move. it is cornered by the market. david: if it moves, what does it do? the dollar, gets pushed back u.s. economic forces, and it flattens the yield curve. the yield curve is getting flatter. we are looking at the short-term rate. thesestribution of all interest rates are flattening if the fed moves up a quarter. they were flat and more. >> the fed is not refusing to play the pressure valve. they are refusing to play the patsy. this goes back to the fomc meeting of last year. janet yellen told the markets she is not going to tolerate a remarkably strong dollar that's going to clobber the manufacturing sector and u.s. workers in any multinational industry. march anded that in that is when the fed
the fed allowed the dollar to play that role. the fed is not doing that anymore. on the dollar has weakened is not because we all that comfortable with the idea of the shallow rate path, it's because the said has backed away. this pointd say at is that the fed has pretty much said they no longer want to play as the pressure valve in the market. at this point the fed cannot move. it is cornered by the market. david: if it moves, what does it do? the dollar, gets pushed back u.s. economic forces,...
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Apr 12, 2016
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the fed has not. the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what's it going to do now given that there are 300 points come from the point to cut? >> that's an excellent question. let me say first, as jen has pointed out there's no sense in which it doesn't always get the risk is more or less constant in every year. 10, 15% as you suggested. the weekend forecast it's no reason think just because we had been in this case seven years of recovery doesn't mean we are due for another session at all. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet earlier analysis can we are facing some risks like developments globally which aggressive headwinds to the united states. productivity growth is only modest which is also a problem but the domestic u.s. economy is moving forward. householdhouseholder for strongl speaking. housing sectors continue to expand. idles any particular reason think a recession is a more likely in 2016 that was in 2015 or 201
the fed has not. the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what's it going to do now given that there are 300 points come from the point to cut? >> that's an excellent question. let me say first, as jen has pointed out there's no sense in which it doesn't always get the risk is more or less constant in every year. 10, 15% as you suggested. the weekend forecast it's no reason think just because we had been...
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Apr 27, 2016
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>> we think the fed is likely to hike in june or july. when they do, if they do, it's going to mean that much of the, you know, stimulus that we've seen from the ecb and japan is going to be played out. and rising rates in the u.s. is going to matter more. i don't think the markets are prepared for it. i think it could lead to a stronger dollar. which could lead to lower oil prices. and retesting of more this year. >> when you say you will pay, everything that was inflated by the fed's monetary policy will come back down to earth. >> that's right. the market is very clearly not paying attention to fundamentals right now. i think actually the fed hasn't been the key driver of the rally, it's more draghi and karata. i think the fed will be the voice of reason, the grown-up in the room that ultimately brings the markets back to fundamentals that really aren't that strong. >> there's obviously high yield, and within high yield there's obviously garbage, and credits that are going to get through a difficult period. we're talking about 25 byes i
>> we think the fed is likely to hike in june or july. when they do, if they do, it's going to mean that much of the, you know, stimulus that we've seen from the ecb and japan is going to be played out. and rising rates in the u.s. is going to matter more. i don't think the markets are prepared for it. i think it could lead to a stronger dollar. which could lead to lower oil prices. and retesting of more this year. >> when you say you will pay, everything that was inflated by the...
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Apr 7, 2016
04/16
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to too many weird the fed might be getting more dovish. jamie dimon is still worried it might -- to quickly. the land of the rising yen. japanese currencies rallied to the highest level against the dollar in 17 months. is the boj powerless before the -- rejected a treaty between the eu and ukraine by a margin of 221. how will u.k. politicians be up to make their case on brexit? two big stories ticking around. i like the dimon line on this. is to too many? we are about to hear from peter pratt as well. i also like this exit story related to what happened in the netherlands. protest votes or something more significant? that is my question. hans: it is difficult to see whether there is a direct correlation between a process vote in the netherlands and a clear in her outvote in the u.k. one note on the jamie dimon letter, 50 pages. couldn't he have waited for hours to incorporate the latest fed minutes? i would've asked for an extension. whoever grated the paper, he should've asked for a to our extension. that's whoever graded that paper -- who
to too many weird the fed might be getting more dovish. jamie dimon is still worried it might -- to quickly. the land of the rising yen. japanese currencies rallied to the highest level against the dollar in 17 months. is the boj powerless before the -- rejected a treaty between the eu and ukraine by a margin of 221. how will u.k. politicians be up to make their case on brexit? two big stories ticking around. i like the dimon line on this. is to too many? we are about to hear from peter pratt...
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Apr 26, 2016
04/16
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the market is telling the fed clearly, i think, the policy is too tight to meet the fed's objectives.ar signal. i think you're right to focus on that but the signal i take away is that inflation expectations are too low right now and that's a concern for the fed rather than going the other way. >> i think there are two things people are forgetting. number one, that we are entering into a less negative situation with respect to 2016 versus 2015. earnings will be better based on a comparisons and the commodity basis is bottoming out and i think a lot of people are forgetting that. we're still in this under promise/over deliver snare knce with respect to earnings. the fed has more to chew on on a positive side. >> i was going to say, john said it well at the beginning. it boils down to this. the fed is in a show-me world. it's not preemptively moving to ado head off theoretic improvement. it's not going to ged aheget ahs thing. it's going to wait to see before it acts. >> thank you both. >>> apple set to post quarterly results offer the bell. with slumping iphone sales is apple at risk o
the market is telling the fed clearly, i think, the policy is too tight to meet the fed's objectives.ar signal. i think you're right to focus on that but the signal i take away is that inflation expectations are too low right now and that's a concern for the fed rather than going the other way. >> i think there are two things people are forgetting. number one, that we are entering into a less negative situation with respect to 2016 versus 2015. earnings will be better based on a...
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Apr 28, 2016
04/16
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well, it is the same with the fed fund futures. we follow the rules of the road and following the fed meetings and the fundamentals of what the fed looked at was consistent over a long period of time, and the fed futures contracts and especially close to the meetingsings were highly accurate, but those das s are gone. i am hearing the screeching right now. no rules of the road and the fed and the central banks are doing it on the fly to think that the outcome of these per en is tajs is going to be anywhere as accurate as it used to be, sorry, i'm not buying it, and word of caution is due if you are following that only. and second thing, japan. the bang of japan didn't add more, and i won't even call it stimulus, because it is stimulus, because it is simulation of stimulus, but it is not doing what stimulus is going to do in a sustainable t pattern, and they didn't do it, and what happened? the same thing maybe, the stock markets went down, and the yen is stronger, and the point is that, this is maybe the first sign that investors ar
well, it is the same with the fed fund futures. we follow the rules of the road and following the fed meetings and the fundamentals of what the fed looked at was consistent over a long period of time, and the fed futures contracts and especially close to the meetingsings were highly accurate, but those das s are gone. i am hearing the screeching right now. no rules of the road and the fed and the central banks are doing it on the fly to think that the outcome of these per en is tajs is going to...
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Apr 29, 2016
04/16
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i think the fed is going to be very cautious. i think the hurdle for a hype the middle of this year is relatively high, given how the statement read and gven how other things are on the global agenda, things like brexit. we still think they can hike once this year, either in december or december in my opinion. my guess is with volatility coming from the political situation, december is more likely. tracy: how closely are you watching the u.s. dollar for an indication of where the fed might go? that seems to be almost key input in some of their calculations now. david: currency markets are the most forward looking f. we look at the dollar index this year, it peaked around january 20. where do we see the bottom? february 11, give or take a couple of days. i am watching the dollar closely. what investors need to really focus on is the dollar is getting weaker or stronger relative to things like the you're owe orient, or relative to currencies? the yen has beeneninging. i'm not really sure that that's a good type of weakening, so we'r
i think the fed is going to be very cautious. i think the hurdle for a hype the middle of this year is relatively high, given how the statement read and gven how other things are on the global agenda, things like brexit. we still think they can hike once this year, either in december or december in my opinion. my guess is with volatility coming from the political situation, december is more likely. tracy: how closely are you watching the u.s. dollar for an indication of where the fed might go?...
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Apr 25, 2016
04/16
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anna: the talk we have heard, being quite dovish from the fed. ge to turn that corner without the markets getting too carried away? dominic: it is one of the things we have seen in the last year. interest rates and currencies interact with each other. people think precrisis carry with the big trade. the relationship now is a lot stronger. when you get a pickup and interest rate expectations, what you have seen the dollar rallied very quickly. that gives the fed something else to think about. timing coming through is in the currency market. what we are seeing, and this is more globally, we are seeing the other such a banks not looking to ease as aggressively and not target their currencies as aggressively. boj will ecb and message in terms of dizzy 20 -- terms of the g 20 and other currencies. we are live at the beijing auto show with the fallout from the emissions cheating and fuel efficiency scandal. how much has that been weighing on and detracting from the underlying sales picture? more on that. ♪ anna: welcome back. this is countdown. 14 minut
anna: the talk we have heard, being quite dovish from the fed. ge to turn that corner without the markets getting too carried away? dominic: it is one of the things we have seen in the last year. interest rates and currencies interact with each other. people think precrisis carry with the big trade. the relationship now is a lot stronger. when you get a pickup and interest rate expectations, what you have seen the dollar rallied very quickly. that gives the fed something else to think about....
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Apr 1, 2016
04/16
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francine: how long can the fed state dovish? hoping a march jobs report to shed light on the shadowy rate path. kickulus kick sharding -- starting the old engines of growth. is the rally doomed to fail? elon musk unveils the newest tesla as orders surge. so, welcome to "the pulse" live here in london. i'm francine lacqua. we've had some news for individual countries. euro area march manufacturing pmi actually rising a touch, to 51.6. compared to a preliminary figure of 51.4. that gain really comes from germany. germany saying the manufacturing therising 50.7 instead of 50.4 we saw previously. we are getting the headlines from the pboc. we had some china gauge figures. the china economy operation is stable. what we heard yesterday from s&p, downgrading the chinese economy. given the breaking news we had a couple minutes ago, let's check in on the markets. this is a picture for european stocks at the moment. the new quarter was fresh to clients. down 3.5%. investors today really looking to key u.s. jobs data for indications of the
francine: how long can the fed state dovish? hoping a march jobs report to shed light on the shadowy rate path. kickulus kick sharding -- starting the old engines of growth. is the rally doomed to fail? elon musk unveils the newest tesla as orders surge. so, welcome to "the pulse" live here in london. i'm francine lacqua. we've had some news for individual countries. euro area march manufacturing pmi actually rising a touch, to 51.6. compared to a preliminary figure of 51.4. that gain...