first, the fed thinks and core pce terms. some of the more volatile energy prices likely will affect more of the headline inflation. i think the more important thing is that we expect the growth spurt that we saw in the third quarter comes from some of the one-off events and we see a considerable amount of economic headwinds facing the economy. clearly the w -- uaw strike perhaps expanding a bit. there is a high likelihood of a government shutdown. that means that a meaningful slowing is ahead and if you look at the median expectation from the dot plot the fed, to get to 3.7% court pce but the end of the year, between now and the end of the year we would need to see him month on month core pce numbers 33 basis points. our number for the next data point is 14 basis points. we need to see the progress that has been happening in core pce has to be undone and revert into different trajectory with something -- given the economic environment, given the economic cloud that are out there, pick that's we are very confident about our ex

we don't think the fed needs to do a lot more. the risk rises quite substantially the further they push the funds rate higher to more restrictive territory. >> this is where i think the government potential shutdown gets interesting because if that happens to me the biggest point is we won't get data and if you have data that does not come how do you manage a number of firms. guy: how are you data dependent without any data. alix: the shutdown might not have an impact but what do you do when it comes to where you are looking at ranges or volatility or anything? guy: absolutely and it will be a huge problem. you have to throw the uaw into the mix as well. the effects of other central banks. in terms of what they are having in the u.s. economy. they make the next few months really difficult. how would you characterize your degree of certainty now? rubeela: about the u.s. economy? guy: yeah. rubeela: degree of certainty we are very certain that that remains positive. we have been looking for a slowdown for some time to a sub 2% growt

we think that the fed is done. ou keep policy restrictive and at these kind of levels, i really don't see the bond market and bond yields rising meaningfully from here. so we'll be looking to get a first read on what the fed is thinking for next year. >> sue, you called a hawkish pause, but i noted when mark was chatting there, you were nodding your head. i'm not sure if that was for agreement or a cat ready to pounce. >> i thought the last time i was here with you guys that the fed should have paused earlier than they did. not characterize it as a skip and say full-on, we're done. i think it's safer for the fed to be finished now and not have to pivot next year and go into rate cuts. that's the last thing they want to do. they don't want to have the communication problem, where they say there's no inflation, and it turns out there is lots of inflation, where they have to chase it with rate hikes. they finally have gotten the market on board with their communication strategy and where they need to keep the markets.

the fed adding that the job gains remain strong and the last meeting they used the word robust. fed saying inflation remains elevated. they're highly attentive to those inflation risks in the statement the fed says they will account for lags in monetary policy going forward and they're framing the dot plot here. let's go back to that dot plot. three votes came down this year, with fed signaling one more rate hike. next year eight votes moved up. meaning the rate hike this year, after the fed hike this year, looking two rate cuts next year, just two, five in 2025. we know that is pushed out. that always changes going down the road. fed saying banking system is sound and resilient, tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity. this was unanimous decision. charles, something to look at. fed signaling one more rate hike still this year. we have two meetings left. charles: edward, great stuff. initial knee-jerk move a little to the downside. the nowed announcing no action on rates. there is elevated tension, you see the market movement, jay powell. he has to deal with a w

sonali: coming up, countdown to the fed. days away from the next u.s. century bank decision and in the walk up, short and yields on the rise. a flurry of issuance underwriters looking to get ahead of the big rate decision but we begin with all the big issues all eyes on -- >> the september meeting. the outcome of the september meeting. >> i think the fed will do what we expect it to do. pause and indicate they are data dependent. >> the fed has to rethink their done hiking. that's -- they have to maintain the policy stance. >> think they will be inclined to deliver a hawkish pause. >> the trend of inflation is moving slower. >> core inflation moving in the way they want. >> most central banks probably done hiking. >> i think the fed is going to be responsive to the labor backdrop. >> i think we may be at the end of rate hikes. sonali: joining us now are jerome schneider and maureen o'connor . someone who manages along the curve, i want to ask you about the rates this week because we have had a 13 basis point move from the tops to the bottom and we are o

the big issue is the fed goldilocks moment. >> the kind of goldilocks scenario the fed wants. >> the goldilocks network. >> the federal reserve it's a good report. >> it's a little bit less wage pressure which is good. >> wages coming down is significant. >> softening wage gains. >> the stubbornly lower unemployment rate is finally taking up. >> working in the direction the fed wanted to go. >> everything looks like it's moving in the right direction. >> this is clearly a labor market rebalancing. >> the labor market can be a slippery slope. >> the fed is looking carefully at data. >> is this the data point the fed needs? >> it's about restrictive policy for longer, not hire for longer. >> read what the underlying trend is in data. >> follow the labor market. >> the fed is likely to press the pause button on the rate hiking cycle. >> when will inflation be done? katie: joining us now is mary and bartel's and ed alhusanien. let's talk about the price action this morning. the unemployment rate finally came up in the two-year treasury yield goes 10 points lower. we get the ism manufactu

they were inclined to pause anyway, the fed thinks it has the i anyway, the fed thinks it has the funit wants it to be relative to inflation, and i think it is a very happy, unless there is some surge in one direction or another and inflation in tow, they are very happy to just keep the numbers where they are for an extended period. i numbers where they are for an extended period.— numbers where they are for an extended period. i may write by sa in: extended period. i may write by saying that _ extended period. i may write by saying that it — extended period. i may write by saying that it can _ extended period. i may write by saying that it can take _ extended period. i may write by saying that it can take anything | saying that it can take anything like 12 months to ten years for these interest—rate hikes to actually fade into the real economy, and if that is the case were only in the early stages of feeling the impact? —— years. the early stages of feeling the impact? -- years.— impact? -- years. that is no miniature — impact? -- years. that is no miniature but _ impact? -- years. t

see what the fed says. not necessarily what it does and what you all do based on what they say. >> every time we do this, we say it's the most important one since last time. i think the fed is in a decent position in fall, because the calendar is giving them a favor in the sense they had a built-in pause in august, they could wait and see what the data said. another built-in pause in october, they can wait and see what the data says. right now the data does not justify a move either up nor down, it sort of lets them stay on pause. as of this morning the market says a zero percent chance of them hiking. i don't expect we'll get any big surprises today. i do think what we're setting up for a zero percent chance today and only a 45% chance in november is really suggesting that they're done, so if they start to come out and have dissension among members that say we should keep hiking, we should stop that will confuse markets. if they come out and continue to be really, really hawkish when the market thinks they'

i appreciate the way the fed came in, the boston fed big footed the situation where they brought a bunch of people together and accomplished a lot without spending federal taxpayer money. i want to continue to find ways we can use the resources we have available. i healed -- yield back. >> the chair recognizes the gentleman from georgia. >> thank you for being back here. i want to continue a dialogue i had about that now. and i want to continue voicing my concern that this product is a solution to a problem that the private sector is already addressing. the network is already capable of instant settlement with a much greater degree of capability than fed now will have when launched next month or in years to come. my concern is that the fed has an undeniable advantage over the private sector in the payments space as it can clear transactions through the fed master accounts. the fed has options to approve transaction speeds through existing options. the fed has discussed settlement services nationally since 2015. first question is why not respond to industry demand by improving existing se

i do appreciate the way the fed came in, the boston fed came in and big foot of the situation in pittsburgh. they brought a bunch of people together and accomplish a lot without spending taxpayer money. i'm going to continue to try to find ways that we can use the resources available. i yield by. >> the chair recognizes the gentleman from georgia. >> mr. power, good to see you again. i want to continue a dialogue you and i had about fed now. i also want to continue voicing my concern that this product is a solution to a problem that the private sector is already addressing. the rtv network is already capable of instant settlement with a much greater degree of connectivity and fed now will have at lunch or in years to come. my concern is also that the fed has an undeniable advantage over the private sector as they can clear transactions through fed master accounts. the fed already has options to extend the operation from a national settlement security or national settlement service. the first question is why not respond to industry demands by improving existing services instead of launching

having said that it was not a terrific print for the fed. and it just does raise the question if you get another one like this, does the fed come back into the picture? ultimately the market is still at 40% chance of a hike in november. that hasn't fundamentally changed. with that picture not changing the market can hang in there. this is the thing we've been waiting for since labor day. this print right here. we have to get through ppi tomorrow and some of the other prints going forward. >> you'll obviously get another inflation read before the fed meets again. as you may know i spoke with jeffrey gunlock out in california yesterday and he says this is it. he doesn't think the fed is going to go again. >> i think they're done. i think we have enough weakness -- economic weakness. the one thing they need to change to be done is they need the core pce to drop below 4. it's been at 4 to 4.5 for about two and a half years. that is the one inflation indicator that is just sideways. >> all right. what if they are done? does that change your outloo

the fed should not declare victory. they're trying to solve the problem they created in the first place, and if i seem a little animated, it's because i am. they've gotten it wrong all along and they probably will continue to be as hawkish as they possibly can be into early next year. the market doesn't anticipate that. look at the late move until hyg today. neither one of those are bullish for stocks. this is not a good thing. higher rates are not good for stocks. >> yeah, through the lens of the stock market is kind of interesting. look at year over year. the ten-year u.s. treasury yield a year ago on my birthday was 3.4%, now 4.4%. look at what crude's done year over year, look at the dollar. it's a little bit higher there, it's been pretty volatile. the one thing to me that is interesting that sticks out like a sore thumb is the s&p 500 where it was. a year ago today, the s&p was at 3,800 or so. and you think about that, and i see the scenario for a soft landing, but when you think about the lag effect of all of this

i think the fed's going to look through that. i think it looks at these numbers and says, you know, we're getting the job cooling we had hoped for. those revisions are in the direction of where the fed wanted things to be in terms of looser labor market. you had nice influx of people in the workforce, tick up in inflation rate. the prime age of participation rate is at a ten-year high i recently saw. that's a good sign. and wages are cooling. overall it's a good week for the fed but not a week i think they're going to say, mission accomplished. remember, they were burned before in a couple different respects. they had back in january, they thought things were going well. they went away and revised improvement in inflation and the inflation numbers went the other way. there could be a couple trying reports at least on the headline basis with unemployment coming. here's what i think is going to happen. i think the fed's going to watch, wait and see in the month of september. and then it's got a couple more inflation reports, another

the peso, under pressure. this fedre on the pace of -- the peso. this is going to be on top of strain from the higher cost of fuel imports. if you look at the fx reserves, international gross reserves, those are dwindling quite quickly. the ammunition to defend the peso is getting less. i would say this would be an added factor for the bsb today to hike. >> perhaps not such an exciting decision when it comes to indonesia, we are expecting a 7th street hold -- seventh straight hold? >> inflation there as well under control even over this episode the last 12 months, inflation stayed relatively well behaved and core never moved outside of the target range. all through this tightening episode, the central bank, bank of indonesia made it clear that what is underlying the rate hikes there was supporting the rupee. it is clear the next move will be done. we just needed to see the rupee on a firmer footing. >> tomorrow we will be speaking to the philippine central bank governor about their policy decision and the path ahead fo

the fed racing rates are trickier. ong as you stay away from the high yielders and stick with the accidentally high yielders that might give you a delicious bounce when the fed is done tightening. ♪ unnecessary action hero! ♪ -missing punches? -unnecessary! -check reversals? -unnecessary! -time sheet corrections? -unnecessary! -unentered sick time? -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -when you can take this phone, you'll be ready. -make the unnecessary, unnecessary. let your employees do their own payroll. >>> tonight we're talking selloffs. many times the problem is indeed the fed as i mentioned. sometimes there are other issues. there's the issue of margins. as a former hedge fund guy i'm well aware there are many times when money managers borrow more cash than they should. when the stock market goes down funds that had borrowed money to bet against stock market volatility got their heads handed to them. they were short the vix but the market remained calm. at the same time they bought the s&p 500 used

we are less than an hour away from the fed's rate decision. al bank a certain to keep housing on its radar as a keeps rates elevated. let's talk about the housing market with the brown harris ceo, bess freedman p i love to get your insight on this market. you're focused on new york area did is the city's market different than other markets in the country in important ways? bess: i think there are differences. we are in florida, palm beach, connecticut, and new jersey. new york city, where there is a distinction, is we have ample inventory. we are not as tight as places like connecticut and palm beach. that has been part of the challenge. once we see in a meaningful way where rates start to go down, then you will start to see more sellers put their homes on the market and we need in certain pockets of the country. that has been the chicken or the egg challenge right now. the inflation is too much money chasing too few goods and that is what it is like an housing for the most part. so people are kind of waiting, buyers and sellers. buyers think i

and what the fed is going to do, not do, we think the fed is on hold in september and then a liven november. but overall, what is rational? investors will go, usually, to the greatest risk adjusted return over time and that's what we've seen over time the treasury market continues to provide that comfort, that level of yield while people look for new catalysts and for what it's worth, we like to think about bond ladders here. why? because as the yield curve is going to normalize itself, the reinvestment risk is real. even though it's comfortable being at the shorter end of the curve right now, as we move to the early cycle and the fed begins to cut, we can can argue and debate when that is, the risk starts to rise significantly. so thinking about more bond lad -- ladder strategies as elementary as that sounds. >> chris, thanks very much, appreciate it. >> thanks, mike. >>> up next breaking down the move lower in intel. that stock is up 5%. kristina partsinevelos is here with the details. >>> you just gave my answer away but what does tyler swift, push ups, and personal computers a

until today that was the fed's view. they had the unemployment rate rising about a point to 4 to happen today's projections the unemployment rate goes up. that is a great outcome. that really is a soft landing disinflation. and that is that is a change from what they were thinking has been. >> i want to come back to a point that steve made and get riches feedback. the fed now seeing the real rate somewhat higher over the medium- term. in 2025 you have the federal funds rate near 4%. even though you have inflation to the 2% target. have economy growing at trent and the unemployment rate near natural rate. given all of that i almost want to say that 3.9 to 4% funds rate is their view of the long run funds rate. that is what you should be. but if you look at the same document they say their view of the long run funds rate still only to have which has been for years. by the way that number is starting to look really stale. if you look at the long dated forward curve on the market they think the neutral rate is more like 3 to

i do not see what happened the last week as like a fed play. katie: the price moves we have seen, the yield moves we have seen, obviously there are a lot of heavyweights weighing in on where the ceiling for interest rates might be including larry fink of black rock. let's listen to what he had to say. a: my opinion is we will have 10 year rates at least at 5% or higher because of the embedded inflation. this structural inflation is unlike anything. i think business leaders and politicians are not providing the foundation to help explain this. we have not seen inflation like this in over 30 years. katie: it was interesting to hear him say that. that is what i have been looking for all week. the driver behind what we are seeing at the long end. larry fink seems to think it is a structural change in inflation. do you see a similar structural change in the inflation environment? does that mean structurally higher interest rates? matthew: there is certainly a change. when you let the inflation genie out of the bottle you have trouble containing it. t

in terms of the fed and oil prices. they are volatile, one of the reasons they put less weight on them. the market often predicts the economy correctly. i'm not sure it leads the economy but people react to the stock market and spending as much as people who are living the life every day think. i don't know how you feel about that. >> you know, there's a wealth effect that goes on, but the wealth effect tends to affect the wealthy more than other folks. >> definitely. >> and they have a lower propensity to consume than lower income or poor americans. >> sure. >> that matters less to them in that regard. i think it's an indication where the economy is going. i think that as an indication of financial conditions it's a part of the whole thing, but it's not the thing they look at, i think, first thing in the morning when they say how tight are financial conditions or how loose are they? i think they'll look at interest rates. what they're seeing, i don't think they're upset about what they're seeing in the ten year. i think

that is the feds telling me —— that is the fed telling me —— that is the fed telling me —— that is theat you don't get the kind of disinflation that the fed wants. with the economy growing faster than 2% rate.— wants. with the economy growing faster than 296 rate.— wants. with the economy growing faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of thin . s faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of things to — faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of things to juggle _ faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of things to juggle for _ faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of things to juggle for the - faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of things to juggle for the fed. - faster than 296 rate. there are a lot of things to juggle for the fed. i i of things to juggle for the fed. i have got their eye on so many indicators right now, it is hard to know what they prioritise. inflation is clearly their main concern. but it is a lagging indicator, isn't it? it tells us what has already happened. they have to make an educated guess about the future in which direction the us economy is heading in. which dire

it's interesting to see the divergence in forecast for gdp from the atlanta fed and the st. atlanta fed is still tracking 5.6% growth for this quarter. i think st. louis' is negative growth for the quarter if not very little. it does depend on the consumer. there's some mixed -- there's some questions. retail sales on thursday will be really important because the resumption of student loan debt begins. starts october 1st. there's evidence it's already started. we started seeing money flowing into the department of education. that could take a bite out of consumer spending. and gas prices are on the rise. people spend more on gas and less on restaurants and services, which has been the strong point. >> indeed. the gas price drag is important. although goldman last week tried to argue the early resumption in payments on loans might mean they're getting ready and there's less drag from here on out. we'll see. >> true. let's take a closer look right now at casey's general stores. that stock hitting a 52-week high after delivering an earnings beat in fiscal q1 with higher than exp

we had the fed rate decision today as expected. a hold. we are now expecting another rate hike this year not to mention higher rates throughout 2025. we saw treasury yields rising across the board. the two year yield at the highest level since 2006. the 10 year yield at the highest level since 2007. they are pressuring tech with the nasdaq 100 underperforming. all of that sentiment is being translated into oil prices falling below the $90 per barrel. we saw the huge rally around 30% since june. those inflation concerns kicking in. today data showed a smaller than expected drop in u.s. crude supply. that did not necessarily help. in the asian session we continue to see decline in asia below $90 per barrel. of course, the first rate decision after the fed came from brazil. as expected, it was another cut of 50 basis points to 12.75%. this is a massive cut, the second straight meeting where they have a 50 basis point cut. brazil has really let -- lead the way in tightening and easing as well. now, the expectation is this was a unanimous decisi

the fed's beige book is one to watch for offering anecdotes of recent u.s. legal activity. f canada is expected to hold rates steady and we will get australian trade numbers thursday. malaysia standing pat at its rate meeting on the same day. initial jobless claims out of the u.s. are expected on that day to add to the color when it comes to the job market. to wrap up the week, japan will announce their final second-quarter growth numbers. we will be watching everything out of the g 20 summit in new delhi. the chinese and russian presidents are set to be notable absentees. that is your week ahead. when it comes to china, chinese business and economics at csis. scott, great to chat with you. there is an ongoing debate at the moment as to what we are seeing in china is a cyclical or structural slowdown or the fact that one is feeding into the other. i know you have been there a number of times recently including a couple months ago. what were your key takeaways from ross roots levels? scott: to some extent there are long-term structural problems the chinese are facing. democra

we got some information from the fed that reiterates the idea that the fed is in place for a hiking mode. this range could break up or down but more towards the side of breaking down. guy: potentially, always potentially. thank you very much. let's get back to our question of the day, we have seen the bank of england make a call, so now, are we there yet? the fed has been a little more clear in terms of its navigation. feel like we're close to hiking rates. the labor continues -- labor market continues to be strong. for now, are we there yet? the answer is different depending on which central bank you're looking at. joanne, in terms of the destination and where we are going and whether the central banks are there yet what have we learned in the past 24 hours? joanne: the fed did what it expected it to do. they said we will keep rates here until we get more data and we may have to keep it higher than you all think in the dot plot said they don't expect as many rate because as the market does and that was a surprise. alix: to be fair, it wasn't just the market it was the fed parroting that

the morning after the fed. maybe a little bit of a hangover this morning if you look at what is happening with the u.s. equities at this hour. we are looking at triple digit losses for the dow and nasdaq. dow off 130. nasdaq down 107. the s&p is off 24. that could be because the fed is indicating one more rate hike or more likely people are wondering what higher for longer means with interest rates. >> we had conversations yesterday that to me were troubling and i started to think about things. it was transitory. the supply chain part. transitory. there is maybe an underlining rate of inflation that is higher and it is harder to deal with and it has to deal with crude. it reminds me now -- it is supposedly not like the volcker era. wages and unions and workers demanding more. >> the wage price spiral that picks up and higher wages. that's what the fed is watching. >> we paused and only to restart. it was not putting a stake in the heart of it in the first place. a little bit stays and it comes back and you do hi

will it be the fed, the ecb or the boe first?bailey's comments support the table-mountain model where rates go up stay high for a long time and there is no rush to bring them down. jennifer: what does this mean for the growth story in the u.k.? did he give an indication of where the u.k. is headed? lizzy: we had that revision to the official numbers, and the picture is rosier for the u.k. andrew bailey seem to support that idea, saying it is in line with the narrative they have been telling that the economy is more resilient than expected but he mentioned the other officials, we heard from the deputy governor who said the numbers are more mixed. we heard from the big dove on the committee who wanted to hold at recent meetings and warned of undershooting the bank of england's 2% inflation target, she is worried about recession. what about hot wage growth, she says we need to look past that because it is a lagging indicator. we also spoke to mike or saunders, the former hawk of the committee, and he says on this growth story that t

signs that the fed could be done tightening. china stimulus is playing out across the markets. >> driving the stimulus, miss confidence. the effect we had, what it did do, nasdaq is up. >> we continue to see property stocks. hong kong markets are the first. they're cutting down down payments, mortgage rates. country garden is lifting property, most sectors are in the green. u.s. markets are closed so we will not see too much in terms of treasuries. the jobs report was talking about moderation. certainly you are seeing hong kong lead the charge as well as the csi 300. we broke out of declines after the best week we saw since july. we saw seven weeks of gains for the index. in your which is quite rare. >> we just mentioned. 5.3 up for the property gauge. just to reeducate on the welcome stimulus playing out. let's have a look. we have some important trade data with how the chinese markets are doing a deep dive and michelle is taking his place as the last meeting of governor. rate decisions as well. >> we will see. it will be intere

you write that the fed had a gift. t rate is not going up significantly. they would like to preserve this. is that sustainable? randall: this is the great question about whether we can have a immaculate disinflation. if we can bring inflation down without the unemployment rate going up substantially. it has never happened before. i have never heard of someone living to the global financial crisis of the fed, but it will be difficult to bring the inflation rate down in a sustainable way. the unemployment rate at least moving from where we are here. there is still a lot of wage pressure here. before, if one of the major cost factors for services and many acts ring is going up at 4%, -- for services and manufacturing is going up at 4%, it will be difficult. tom: randall kroszner will stay with us as we are five minutes away from the job from work. jeffrey rosenberg scheduled to be with us as well. i don't want to oversell it. features with a list of 16. dow up 21. the vix at 15.47 really speaks. as you go to your show, the

i'm expecting a hawkish hold from the fed this evening. t from expecting 100 basis points of cuts next year, towards 75. a hawkish hold. that reflects decent growth in the u.s., but also a bump higher in contemporaneous inflation in the u.s. really altogether, this means we are likely to see the dollar stay relatively firm, certainly over the coming weeks and months. in addition, this will be augmented by the ongoing steepening we are seeing across various curves in the u.s. i think the front end of the u.s. yield curve should remain pretty steep and well above levels of 5%. the back end of the curve, we've seen it at its highest level since 2007 and i think the steepening will continue. likewise, the return of turn premia to the bond market suggests we might move toward a range of four .5% and 5% on the u.s. 10. it is an environment in which rates will continue to steepen but also as a result will do pretty well. it's a question of not necessarily how high rates will go but how long they stay at high levels and that's what the fed will dic

i think that's exactly what the fed wants. so tomorrow's number i don't think will be too surprising, but i think the data for the next four to six weeks will be very interesting to watch. >> we had this "wall street journal" report over the weekend that the fed is now thinking that, you know, it can be more patient, i guess, or the risks are more balanced in this view. even on paper, they don't expect inflation to get to the target for quite a long time. arguably, they're giving the economy a little bit of a longer leash right here. does that not change the dynamic to you? >> i agree that the fed is unlikely to hike in september. that's my expectation. bup i but i think that represents a reset ochg their pace for hiking rather than a signal that they'll pause. it has everything to do with the inflation risk pointed out. the fed says if things are going as welles wealth as they going in 12 months, we still won't be at the target. that's an environment that presents interesting investment opportunities. but it's one that also ha

the fed was our big backstock and now the fed is not buying, it is allowing it to rolloff. you don't have them stepping in. tom: i'm asking for a friend. the austrian 97 year, i've enjoyed it, i bought it when 31 to 36. i am down to a nine year paper. how do you know it will reverse and be the distressed debt of all time? kathy: i wish i had the answer. tom: we have not seen this in 17 years. lisa has no memory. what percentage of wall street has no memory of going when do i go to ultra? that has often asked for 17 years. kathy: i think when you go along duration you will have to wait for a pivotal moment such as a big recession or crisis. lisa: such a diplomatic way of answering a question where tom is trying to offload the austrian piece. tom: these are markets that what percentage of the public in their adult lives have never even listened to the surveillance dialogue? lisa: they were probably not thinking about sovereign debt from top-rated governments. we are thinking about top-rated debt from sovereign governments because that is what we are getting. tom: the vick 17.

we had the richmond fed. nufacturing data, i love these things, this believe it or came in better than expected. it was the first time in the plus column after 16 straight months of negative prints but you always got to read the fine prints, right? firms were not much more optimistic. that is really the bottom line. joining me to discuss it all. qi research ceo chief strategist danielle dimartino booth. all right, i mean bad news is bad news. you asked for it, you got it [laughter] >> it makes a difference, charles. if you're talk about the richmond fed manufacturing survey, the two of us might talk about that but when con consumer sentiment starts to get hit and when expectations start to fall that means that your average working american family, the cat's out of the bag. they know somebody who lost their job. so your seven degrees of separation have again to two degrees of separation. that is when it becomes really problematic for policymakers at the federal reserve because it is hard to convince the public

all are good for the fed's longer-run target of low inflation. and if we lose that in a recession, aren't we opting for the awful history that we had in 2010? so are you taking this into account as you pursue policy? thank you. >> to begin, a soft landing is a primary objective, and i did not say otherwise. i mean, that's what we've been trying to achieve for all this time. the real point though is the worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability, because the record is clear on that. if you don't restore price stability, inflation comes back, and you go through -- you can is have a long period where the economy's just very uncertain, and it'll affect growth, it'll affect all kinds of things. it can be a miserable period to have inflation constantly coming back and the fed coming in and having to tighten again and again. so the best thing we can do for everyone, we believe, is to restore price stability. i think now, today, we actually, you know, we have the ability to be careful at this point and move carefully, and that's what we'r

did the fed do that? >> i think that the reality that hire heyer yooemields has surprised to shrug off a tighter fed and higher yields. i think we are at the point where the market says, hey, maybe we won't get those cuts in 2024 as early as we expected, and if we look back when we traded to the high back in july, you were trading at 20 times forward for the s&p, 33 times on the nasdaq, and so that was a very full and mitch multiple if you weren't going to get support from the fed. that was the message that the fed gave yesterday, which is why we think these interest rates have -- >> was this more hawkish than you expected? >> no. he did think that you would see the 2024 rates start to move higher in the dot plot. that is what we sauchlt it drifted higher by 50 basis points which really just said that the fed is saying that just because inflation is moderating, if we are seeing higher growth, that means that they cannot cut rates simply because the risk is that inflation could come back. and so if we think

this is the inflationary and the fed really likes. and so it means the last piece of data that will have had has been this thing that shows that inflation is maybe less of a problem than we thought. whether that fed actually ends up caring about that remains to be seen. but we'll have to worry about that in november. and also, investors can look at the adp number for the first time and actually pay attention to it. that'll be the only one they get. so, carlton, this time we got this this week we got a fascinating thing where in real time we got to see how investors reacted to mark zuckerberg. it was thumbs down big time. on his metaverse ambitions. but then he started talking about ai and investors perked up. yeah that was exactly what happened. so facebook had its kind of connect conference where they got to unload new features and kind of announce some developing things that they're working on and exactly at that, as mark zuckerberg is talking about, the quest three, this kind of new almost $500 device, you sell shares of sorry meta

slightly more positive picture for the fed meeting on wednesday. we have the bank of england on thursday as well >> joumanna, thank you joumanna bercetche live in the london newsroom. >>> turning back to stateside. we are ten weeks away from black friday and the holiday shopping season despite interest rates at a 22-year high, the economy is resilient. first here on "worldwide exchange," is mastercard sales forecasts. forecast to increase 3.7% thanks for surging electronics and experiences. jo joining me for a deeper dive here on cnbc is michelle meyer at mastercard. >> good morning, frank. >> michelle, let me know if this is a coincidence holiday sales 3.7% that is the same as the cpi. how much of the increase is inflation and how much of it is a true increase in consumer spend? >> that's a good observation, frank. i think you are right. it is the same as cpi. we are looking at a different measure of spend than what you would see in overall cpi you want to look at each categories and compare the spending by category to inflation by category. the se

the st. louis feduarter whereas the atlanta fed is 5.6 of gdp you could drive a mack truck through those two estimates. as you know when we get a lot of these data points reported we're seeing constantly, this was downwardly revised. i'm not just talking about payrolls. that's what we're seeing, and that's what you see when the economy is taking a turn. there is an undeniability, charles, there was another bankruptcy that was just announced today, a big retailer just went belly-up this morning. when you see bankruptcies rising at the fastest pace since 2010 that means that every bankruptcy is attached to people losing their incomes in their entirety. forget about living beyond your means. how about not having any means at all? we cannot ignore the bankruptcy cycle as much as many on the street would prefer to do so. charles: i got 30 seconds, then. would you be okay with the fed holding here, pausing, being data dependent. should they be hinting hey, the task is done, mission accomplished? >> i certain

i understand what the fed is doing. the moment that the fed is done, trex will spike big. ve having you on the show. thank you so much. >> thanks, jim. appreciate it. >>> "mad money" is back after the break. >>> coming up, shareholders rewarded, or shareholders be warned? it's a wrap on cramer's three-part look at monster buybacks, next. (bobby) my store and my design business? we're exploding. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. the not-so-secret to our success? earn and keep trust. build and maintain financial strength and stability. deliver solutions that meet complex needs. do right by customers, clients, and policyholders, always. repeat daily for over one hundred and seventy years. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. ♪ (birds chirping) go. and go and go and go. ( ♪ ♪ ) but what if you... stop? you work hard, it's time for a bank that'll work hard

we're expecting the fed to shape a narrative for the next meeting, right?that we get through the september meeting with no rate hike but the expectations coming out of this two day meeting next week start coming toward the idea that we could see another hike, a 12th hike in the november meeting. >> when the fed started tightening monetary policy several years ago i said history has proven the fed will take rates further than anyone wants to anticipate, for a longer period of time. i think we'll stay high in the fed fund rates through 2025. time shall tell. the fed has been tighten forge 18 months now. historically they tend to move for several years. i think it's a matter of time before the fed eases monetary poll civil i think the market is getting it wrong, thinking the fed willies monetary policy next year. it's not going to happen next year. maria: sean, have you seen a movement into rate sense at thie etfs at your company? tell us what's going on in terms of where the money is moving. >> obviously, getting yield today is a lot easier than it used to be

all are good for the feds longer run target of low inflation. if we lose that in the recession, are we opting for the history that we had in 2010? taking this into account as you pursue policy? thank you. >> to begin, the soft landing is the primary objective, i did not say otherwise. that is what we are trying to achieve. the real point is that the worst thing we can do is to change the price stability. if it comes back, you can have a long period where the economy is uncertain and it will affect growth in all kinds of things. it can be a miserable period to have inflation constantly coming back and the fed having to come back again and again, the best thing we can do for everyone is restore price stability. now, today, we have the ability to be careful at this point. that is what we are planning to do. we fully appreciate the benefits of being able to continue what we see already. rebalancing the labor market and inflation coming down without seeing the large increase in unemployment which is typical in other tightening cycles. >> hi i am from

the fed heninting at a hike befe the year's end. >>> the fed not the only game in town and investors await the latest from the bank of england and a decision from other european central bank. >>> ipo rush looking more like a crawl after instacart looking to set the post-debut slide. >>> there are hopes of a deal today for the writers strike. >>> and shares set to spike at the open for fedex. it is september 21st, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. >>> good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'll frank hoho home frank holland -- i'm frank holland coming to you live from washington, d.c. it is all happening here. let's kickoff with the check of the u.s. stock futures after the fed is keeping the campaign hiking on hold and maintaining the central bank has a long way to go to reach the target. futures are in the red. the dow opening up 100 points lower. nasdaq and s&p lower. we are checking the bond market. yields on the 10-year treasury and 5-year note are pulling back. right now, brent crude is moving lower right now. impacted by the rate hikes by the fed

the fed wants to see the number decelerate more.re without increase in unemployment and without too many more job openings falling. they will be pleased with that. i really think that given the constraints on the labor force and the impossibility of big job numbers that wages is the next level of trying to get an indicator of where they will go. my personal opinion is they are likely to be done. they have to see the number accelerate from here to really consider another rate hike and given the general soft tone of profit margin and business and that thing. i would bet we're not likely to see that. >> dana, you know, the saying goes by the rumor, sell the news. do you sell the news of the final rate hike? >> i think that's fair. you know, recently, we were all thinking more likely than not there is an increase in september. the latest data coming in with inflation coming down in the same trajectory it went off. it went up fast and it has been coming down that way. i agree. wage growth is what the fed will look at here among many piec

the fed will get this way with the labor market. tom crean, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: it is back to the real world of equities and bonds, 18 stores to talk about. the real yield interests up against the middle of august. real yield 1.94%. jonathan: maybe not higher for longer. october 20 we have the decision from the federal reserve. that could be lingering? ecb is on next thursday. tom: you get in inflation surprised? jonathan: we are making the london announcement what are we doing over there? tom: i'm really looking at arsenal. jonathan: i was going to watch football. lisa: lisa is going to be cooking. jonathan: does she know? lisa: great, sounds great. tom: everybody i know is for arsenal. lisa: sure, i've got it. tom: it is a toxic brew of post-labor day stories. jonathan: it hasn't been that toxic. the federal reserve has more ammunition and i can show comments with my friends saying the labor market is coming into balance. morgan stanley says the report talks about the labor market softening but falling -- but

jonathan: the founder and former fed economist. l the way through the year. this is what is going to happen, this is what is going to happen and it is happening far more slowly than we anticipated. tom: humility tuesday. this came from jamie dimon talking about he wants a primal scream for humility on bank capital requirements. there are other issues on humility. that is an economics of humility where she will make statements but hedges every step of the what, particularly on recession. jonathan: one of the best at that. jobless claims, retail sales on thursday as well. tomorrow morning, cpi in america. equity futures a little bit softer. no real drama here on a 10 year. i want to go back to the quote from j.p. morgan, the risk, the potential for commodity price surge to feed inflation and extend central banks hiking cycles. that is the call from the manor jp morgan at the moment. tom: we will have to see how it goes. the opinions will adjust by thursday -- or by friday. jonathan: it has been pretty bearish on stocks through much of

well, it's a little bit our money, i for the fed. little bit our money, your problem, in the sense that the us economy is doing well and that, according to the chair of the federal reserve, powell, probably leads to higher interest rates for longer. now, the problem for asian central banks is that that leads to a stronger dollar and weaker local currencies and that's not always a welcome thing, because, of course, weaker local currencies increase imported inflation, leads to higher inflation and therefore, ties the hand of asian central bankers. they may want to be easing at some point in the next few quarters, because economic growth is slowing here, but they may not be able to and may have to defer those interest rate cuts because of higher us interest rates for longer. higher us interest rates for [on . er. , higher us interest rates for loner. , ., higher us interest rates for loner. , . ., , longer. there is a wide gap in interest rates _ longer. there is a wide gap in interest rates between - longer. there is a wide gap in inte

the fed feels like a coin flip now. say that as we go kind of into the fall, our playbook and this is a playbook with lido advisers, is that it will be a choppy month. you want to be prepared to participate on the up side but we're using option strategies to sort of, you know, to sell away some of the up side so that we can protect down side. and i think that that kind of a strategy is the way that you have to go when you just don't know how it will land. >> gina, thanks as always. great to see you. >>> that does it for "the exchange." let's take a look over in the "power lunch" studio where seema mody is getting ready. i'll be with her on the other side of this quick break. tes autonomous vacuums work continuously around the house, but when your team has to work seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. responsive colla

inflation is getting sticky, that will worry the fed. have these cuts, it will push much higher. without them pushing higher, the upside in dollar yen seems limited. i don't think it will begin much, but 145-150 range. you can trade around that quite happily in the coming weeks. rishaad: thank you very much, david finnerty there. looking at what has been going on with the dollar, the euro and the yuan in light of the data. we will be looking at something the fed does not want to see, elevated oil prices. some investors are loving it. this is bloomberg. ♪ i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. haslina: it is about china and the better-than-expected data giving a lift to the benchmarks in north asia. the hang seng up by 1.7%, csi 300 just up a minimal .1%. talk about stabilizat

we think the fed is done raising interest rates. matt: always great to get your perspective, one of the smartest minds in economics, thank you for joining us. julia coronado, president and founder of macro policy perspectives. coming up, john zito will join us of apollo and will talk with sonali basak about his credit outlook and give us his take on current financial conditions. that is an interview you do not want to miss. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm matt miller. last october's bloomberg invest conference in new york, apollo's deputy cio of credit, john zito, said there was an amazing environment for credit investors at the time. take a listen. john: we are pitching ourselves where yields are today. we have been building our credit business for the last 20 years and effectively a majority