a decision by the committee to raise its target range for the federal funds rate will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis. that said, the importance of the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target should not be overemphasized. what matters for financial conditions and the broader economy is the entire expected path of interest rates, not any particular move, including the initial increase, in the federal funds rate. indeed, the stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. in the projections prepared for our june meeting, most fomc participants anticipated that economic conditions would evolve over time in a way that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the headwinds that still restrain real activity continue to diminish and inflation rises. of course, if the expansion proves to be more vigorous than cu

a decision by the committee to raise its target range for the federal funds rate will signal how much progress the recovery -- the economy has made in healing from the financial crisis. that said, the importance of the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target should not be overemphasized. what matters for financial conditions and the broader economy is the entire expected path of interest rates, not any particular move including the initial increase in the federal funds rate. indeed, the stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment 2% inflation. in the projections prepared for our june meeting, most fomc participants anticipated that economic conditions would evolve over time in a way that will warrent gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the head winds that still restrain real activity continue to diminish and inflation rises. of course, if the expansion proves to be more vigorous than curre

the entire expected path of interest rates. not any particular move including the initial increase in the federal funds rate. ance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. in the projections prepared for our june meeting, most fomc participants anticipated that economic conditions would evolve over time in a way that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the head winds that still restrain real activity continue to diminish and inflation rises. of course if the expansion proves to be more vigorous than currently anticipated, and inflation moves higher than expected then the appropriate path would likely follow a higher and steeper trajectory. conversely if conditions were to prove weaker than the appropriate trajectory would be lower than projected. as always we will reassess what level of the federal funds rate is consistent with the chiefing and maintaining the committee's dual mandate. i'd also like

the entire interest rates. not including the initial increase in the federal funds rate. indeed the stance will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment in 2% inflation the projections prepared for our june meeting, most fomc participants participated that economic conditions would evolve over time in a way that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the head winds that still restrain real activity continue to diminish and inflation rises. if the expansion proves to be more vigorous and inflation moves higher than expected. the appropriate path would likely follow a higher and steeper trajectory. conversely, if conditions were to prove weaker the appropriate electra correctly would be lower and less steep than currently projected as always, we will regularly reassess what level of the federal fundses rate is successful in achieving the committee's dual mandate i'd like to know that the federal reserve is co

statement, the fmoc again noted that it would be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and it is confident that inflation will move pack to it's 2% objective to the medium term. and the increase in the federal funds rate on a meeting by meeting basis defendpending on the assessment of maximum employment and 2% inflation. if the economy evolves, economic conditions would likely make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target. there by beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. indeed most participants in june projected that an increase in the federal funds target range would likely become appropriate before year end. let me emphasize again these are projections based on the anticipated path of the economy not statements of intent to raise rates at any particular time. the decision by the committee to raise it's target range for the federal funds rate will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trama of the financial crisis. that said the impor

what matters for financial conditions is the entire expected path of interest rates, not not any particular move including the initial increase in the federal funds rate. indeed the stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress toward our objectives with maximum employment and 2% inflation. in the projections prepared for our june meetings, most participants anticipated that economic conditions would involve over time in a way that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the headwinds that still read strain activity activity and inflation rises. if if it proves to be more vigorous than currently anticipated and inflation moves higher than expected, then the appropriate path would likely follow a higher and steeper trajectory. conversely if conditions were weaker than the appropriate trajectory would be lower than currently projected. as always we we will regularly reassess what level the funds rate is consistent with achieving and maintaining the committees dual mandate. i'd i'd also like to note th

a decision by the committee to raise its target range for the federal funds rate will signal how much progress the recovery -- the economy has made in healing from the financial crisis. that said, the importance of the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target should not be overemphasized. what matters for financial conditions and the broader economy is the entire expected path of interest rates, not any particular move including the initial increase in the federal funds rate. indeed, the stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment 2% inflation. in the projections prepared for our june meeting, most fomc participants anticipated that economic conditions would evolve conditions would over time in a way that will warrent gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the head winds that still restrain real activity continue to diminish and inflation rises. of course, if the expansion proves to be more vi

the extent to raise rates at any particular time. the decision by the committee to raise its target range for the federal funds rate will signal how much progress the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis. that said the importance of the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target should not be over emphasisoverempicizesis -- over emp emphasised. the stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the first increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress of the objective of maximum employment and 2% inflation. for the june meeting, most fomc participants anticipated economic conditions will evolve over time in a way that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the head winds that restrain activity continue to demenish and inflation rises. if the expansion proves to be more vigorous and inflation moves higher than expected then the appropriate path would follow a higher and steeper tro trajectory. as always we will ridgedly reassess what level of the federal funds rate is consistent with achieving and maintaini

the decision by the committee to raise its target range for the federal funds rate will signal how much progress and recovery the economy has made in healing from the trauma of the financial crisis. that said, the importance of the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target should not be overemphasized. what matters for financial conditions and the broader economy is the entire expected path of interest rates. not any particular move, including the initial increase in the federal funds rate. indeed, the stance of monetary policy will likely remain highly acome dayive for quite some time -- accommodative for quite some time in order to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. in the projections prepared for our june meeting, most fomc participants anticipated that economic conditions would evolve over time in a way that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate as the head winds that still restrain real activity continue to diminish and inflation rises. of course if the expansion proves to be more vigorous than curre

the federal reserve took forceful action. the fomc aggressively cut our short-term interest rate target. the federal fundse, from above 5% to near zero by the end lower borrowing costs and help spur household spending and business investment. with short-term interest rates near zero, the fomc provided further support to the economy through our large-scale asset , buying large amounts of treasury and mortgage-backed, mortgage related securities in the open market. these purchases pushed down longer-term borrowing rates for millions of american families and businesses. recovery, weonomic put additional downward pressure on longer-term borrowing costs by explaining publicly that we intended to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time. rates,term borrowing such as those for mortgages and automobile loans, or lower if people expect short-term rates in the future to remain low or to rise only gradually. suggests thatnce our policy actions were the pace of economic recovery has been slow. growth and real gdp has averaged only about two and a quarter percent per year since 2009. about a percentage point

that it would likely be appropriate sometime this year to begin raising our target range for the federal funds rate. of course, we continue to watch these developments, these global developments unfold and we will in the coming months. were we to judge that these developments did create substantial risks or were changing the outlook in some notable way, then a change in the outlook is something that would affect monetary policy. as we've said all along, we have no judgment about at this point, about the appropriate date to raise the federal funds rate. our judgment about that will depend on unfolding economic developments and how they affect our forecasts. >> you stressed in your testimony that the pace of rate increases is more important than the timing of the first rate hike. and many economists, including the imf have argued that the fed should wait longer to start raising rates, possibly waiting until next year. but should then follow a slightly steeper path of subsequent rate increases. so my question is, is if the fed waits longer than currently forecast to start raising rates, will that mean

that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy. but i want to emphasize that the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated developments could delay or accelerate this first step. we will be watching carefully to see if there is continued improvement in labor market will need tond we be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to joe's go percent in the next few years -- 2% in the next few years. this increase in the federal occurs,te, whenever it will by itself have only a very small effect on the overall level of monetary accommodation provided by the federal reserve. because there are some factors that i mentioned earlier continue to restrain the economic expansion, i anticipate the appropriate piece of normalization will be gradual in that monetary policy will need to be highly supportive of economic activity for quite some time. the projections of most of my fomc colleagues indicate that they have similar expectations to the likely path

the fed set to begin raising rates was when unemployment reached 6.5%. we're well below that rate today. 5.3% unemployment. i appreciate your testimony that you expect to raise the target federal funds rate by the end of this year but i want to explore why they've delayed it beyond the point you originally targeted and what that says about a few issues. first of all, what does it say about the unpredictability of fed policy? i appreciate that effective communication is critical transparency is desirable. doesn't the fact we're below 6.5% unemployment now for almost a year and a half and you haven't raised rates doesn't that undermine the commitment to transparency and to communication? >> i want to make clear that the 6.5% was never a target that we never said we intended to raise rates when unemployment fell to 6.5%. instead, we said it was a threshold and if unemployment was above that level and inflation was well under control we'd not raise rates. once unemployment fell below that level we'd then begin to consider whether it was appropriate to raise rates, and we've followed that policy. and we never said that it was a target, which we would -- >> i understand that and i appreci

rates this year. take a listen. >> if the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target. there by beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. >> big remarks from yellen, but they were expected, so mild reaction on wall street. stocks are lower in new york, this as the deadline looms in athens and clashes between protestors and police have erupted. that has pushed all the indexes down in the red, but just below the flat line. time to look at some other top stories. mexico's historic oil auction missed its goal. in the first round, only two out of 14 fields were sold. the combined fields in the gulf of mexico are worth an estimated $80 million. it was nearly 30 years ago that they ticked out foreign energy companies. indians online pastrana service plans to launch in 18 new countries by 2016. the company is valued at more than $1 billion. >> and sir mike rake is leaving barclays. he has served as the bank's deputy chairman since 2012. that comes just after anthony jenkins had a falling out with the board. he is taking up a new position with word pay.

expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target. >> yellen also commented on a note by officials of the monetary fund saying the fed should wait until the first half of next year for the rate hike. >> an advantage to beginning a little bit earlier is that we might have a more gradual path of rate increases. >> she said gradual hikes could set off any harmful effects. >>> tokyo stocks hit a three-week high after lawmakers approved the bailout plan in greece. the nikkei closed at 20,600. in china the shanghai composite was up nearly half a percent at 3,823 rebounding from yesterday. analysts say the market remains volatile and investors are still cautious. australia's index was up nearly 0.6% posting its best close in three weeks. demand was high for financial sector stocks. most other markets in the region extended in the positive following gains in shanghai. seoul's kospi rose more than .7% of a percent. indonesia is closed for the holiday through next tuesday. >>> the president of delta says the u.s. carrier is keen to be a

rates this year after more than six years at near zero. >> if the economy evolves as we expect economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate. >> but she said labor markets are not at maximum ask the inflation is above the 2% target. and the central bank is closely watching the volatile financial conditions inside china. >> were we to judge that these did create substantial risks or changing the outlook in a notable way then a change in the outlook is something that would affect monetary policy. >> but interest rate timing took a back seat to house republican concerns for more oversight and accountability over the central bank. there were calls for a more trans parent instructor interest rate policy and several lawmakers over the use of the turnover material regarding the investigation of a 2012 leak of market sensitive information to a private news letter. wisconsin representative shawn duffy pulled no punches in his clash with the fed chair. >> if anyone is trying to sweep this under the rug, it is the fed. >> is it fair to say you won't give me legal authority? >> we've said we plan to give them to you. as soon as w

expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rateget. >> yellen also commented on a note by officials of the international monetary fund saying the feds should wait until the first half of next year for the rate hike. >> an advantage to beginning a little bit earlier is that we might have a more gradual path of rate increases. >> she said gradual hikes could head off any harmful effects on the economy. >>> u.s. stock prices closed slightly lower after yellen's comments. the tug of war in the greek parliament had been casting a shadow on market sentiments. let's see how markets here are reacting. we go to to the tokyo stock exchange. what are you seeing how is this affecting tokyo stocks this morning? >> good morning, ramin. many key factors played into investors' sentiment one of which was the stronger dollar after yellen's comments and a slew of positive american data. but i guess investors cannot be too aggressive in buying especially after the protests in athens. let's see the opening levels for the nikkei and the topix for this s

as we've said all along, we have no judgment about the appropriate date to raise the federal funds rate. our judgment will depend on unfolding economic developments and how they affect our forecast. >> you stress in your testimony that the pace of rate increases is more important than the timing of the first rate hike. many economists including the imf have argued that the fed should wait longer to start raising rates, possibly waiting until next year, but should then follow a slightly steeper path of subsequent rate increases. my question is, if the fed eights longer than current forecast to start raising rates, will that mean a steeper rate of rate increases? >> if we wait longer it certainly could mean that when we begin to raise rates we might have to do so more rapidly. so an advantage to beginning a little bit earlier is that we might have a more gradual path of rate increases. as i indicated the entire path of rate increases does matter. there are are many reasons why the committee chose an appropriate path of rate increases is likely to be gradual. given that we have been at thi

. >> i expect it will be appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy. >> in an effort to ease market anety over interest rate liftoff, the first rate hike in nearly a decade yellin said both wall street and main street should focus on the gradual path of increases after that. >> i currently anticipate that the appropriate pace of normalization will be gradual. the monetary policy will need to be highly supportive of economic activity for quite some time. >> earlier this week minutes from the mid-june fed meeting showed monetary policy makers concerned about the debt crisis and the economic slowdown in china, not so today. yellen said calls by christine lagarde to holde off on raising interest rates until 2016 is part of the interest rate policy debate inside. >> the members of the federal open market committee publish their own individual forecasts of the appropriate path of policy conditional, of course on their economic forecasts. you'll also see a range of opinion there. and so it is part of the spectrum of opinion.

the u.s. economy before lawmakers yesterday. she reiterated her want of a rate hike. janet yellen: the conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal fundsate target. the importance of the initial raising should not be over emphasized. what matters for financial conditions in the broader economy is the entire expected path. we have no judgment at this point about the appropriate point to raise. the advantage to begin earlier is that we might have a more gradual path of rate increases. we are not going to raise rates if we think it will put the economy into a recession. when they finally begin in a deliberate way looking at what the impact of those decisions are on the economy strikes me as a prudent approach. jonathan: i'm sure it is much more exciting than that. it lasted just over two hours. just to start with you, this is the loosest tightening in history. would you agree with that? yogesh: probably. we were talking about cash levels. i don't know if you saw the bank of america fund report, the duck about financial institutions now holding the highest level of cash. there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. in the end, they're just hap

will expect that it will be appropriate some point later to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate normalize monetary policy. jonathan: that was yellen last friday. joining us now to shed some light, jen. we are eager to get to the bank of england. janet yellen, she is laying the groundwork for that first rate hike, she reconciled that with the message that we are data dependent. it is not supporting her right now. >> that is the point. the markets are not convinced the hike will come this year. the recovery may not look even. the market trading is not coming forward to match the idea of a rate hike in 2016, perhaps today's testimony might be an opportunity to hammer home the message. jonathan: the market rate cap seems more dovish. the fed has been wrong. who is wrong? the market or janet yellen? >> i think the economic growth prospects might be a bit optimistic. i think it is an interesting exercise. i think it is successful of yellen, for me that is what this exercise is about. the first rate hike would lead to crash he -- crash like behavior. jonathan: the fed is not the only b

rate increase is likely to happen this year. >> i expect it will be appropriate sometime later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and begin normalizing monetary policy. on the current economic climate, we have the ubs chief u.s. economist maury harris. thank you for being with us. tell us, first of all, about the retail sales report. is one step over, one step back. if you recall, we had pretty good numbers in both march and may, but then we had setbacks in april and june. our sense of history is that you are not yet able to string together two powerful months. if you average of the last four months, you are doing ok. brendan: your note looking back at the fed minutes describe what you call a nervous fed. what are they nervous about? >> these people manage to be nervous about a lot of different things. the latest thing that we alluded to about which they were nervous was the situation in greece and the potential for financial contagion. i suspect today they are not nearly as nervous as they were a week ago on that. tell us about manufacturing in the united states. that was supposed to be a bright spot. weit

the fed will likely start raising rates but says there is no timeline to do that. >> we have no judgment about at this point about the appropriate date to raise the federal funds rateon unfolding economic developments and how they effect our forecast. >> many economists believe the first fed rate hike will happen in september. >>> if you felt frustration dealing with the irs over the phone turns out you aren't the only one. a new report says the service has gone from bad to worst. dropped phone calls jumped from more than 8 million last year up from just 500,000 the year before. callers also spent more time on hold. the irs officials one of them says that the bad service is because of budget cuts. >>> let's turn to health news. you may want to drink up the next time you take a long road trip. >> and one of the largest cereal companies is trying to get healthier. >> reporter: general mills unveiled a bunch of new products that skewed towards natural and wellness with several lines boasting high protein content mostly accomplishing that by expanding offerings. organic farming may be more greenhouse gas intensive than conventional. the study comes from the university

the federal reserve has employed and i will say exceptionally accommodated monastery monetary policy to spur economic growth, but we are now nearly seven years out with the federal funds rate still at the down. the quantitative easing have made it much easier and certainly has solve our long-term debt problem. and both you and your predecessor have argued that the fiscal reform is important over the long term. however, you also stated that the fiscal prudence can be ignored in the short term does not hamper the economic recovery. so it has now been seven years and we can no longer say that we are looking at the short-term. >> like my predecessor i believe that this is a nation facing a serious debt problem in the years ahead. at the moment mainly because of congressional actions and those have succeeded in lowering the deficit to the point where the next several years the debt to gdp ratio was stable, but over time the cbo projections as the population ages and especially if health care costs rise it has been historically typical in the country will face an unsustainable debt path in which the debt to gdp ratio rises and that requires further actions that is mainly related

said all along, we have no judgment about at this point about the appropriate date to raise the federal funds ratehat will depend on unfolding economic developments developments. >> here we go again. we've got the two big guns coming out. mario draghi and the janet yellen. andrew? >> thank you steve. we will be getting back to you as the day progresses. we will hear what draghi has to say in a bit. >>> let's get back to our guest host roger altman. i guess steve's gone. i was going to just engage him too. but i guess we'll never know roger. steve said no contagion. we never really saw what he was looking at indicate that there was going to be contagion even when we weren't sure whether this was going to get done. i guess there were some moments. i always sort of thought it would get done but there were some moments it got a little dicey. but would there have been contagion if the worst case scenario had played out? >> no. because if you just watched the spreads throughout the process and even at the worst moments the day of the referendum -- >> is that because they knew it was going to happen? bec

expect economic conditions would likely make it appropriate at sometime this year to raise the federal fund rateget, but again, she hedges. let me emphasize again, these are projections raced on the anticipated cost of the economy and not statements of intent to raise rates at any particular time. finally in the summary she continues to say we continue to anticipate it will be appropriate to rained -- to raise the rate when the committee hasn't seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2% objective over the medium term. in her remarks, really highlighting both the strength and the challenges that remain for the u.s. economy and interesting that she does mention the international challenges. along with the testimony, we get something called the monetary policy report. the fed releases that are within that the fed, not just janet yellen but the federal reserve talks about liquidity in the fixed income markets which has been a huge topic of discussion among market participants and she says the federal reserve is watching related develo

as you stated in your testimony they will look to raise the federal funds rate at some point before the end of the year. you and the others on the fm oc must make this decision weighing all the information at your disposal. i understand that. that. but as we have discussed previously i am still troubled by sluggish wage growth in america. we continue to see depressed labor force of participation and inflation runs well below the 2% target. unless the question, if there is still slack in the labor market views made different here and i've heard from experts on both sides, but but i refuse to let the loud voices of those screaming for the fed to act drown out the voices of the middle-class families who continue to wait quietly for economic recovery to show up in their take-home pay. the question of when the fed will raise rates has received a lot of attention. as i've said before i think the single biggest problem facing the decline of middle-class income. as you know know they have decreased by 6.5%. median income adjusted for inflation is $3600 lower. what can we do to increase producti

rate increase. janet yellen: if the economy evolves as we expect economic conditions would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise of the federal fundsate target, thereby getting to know normalize. ♪ guy: it is 6:15 in london. here are the stories you need to know this morning. anna: both inside and outside the parliament, as lawmakers passed a bailout deal prime minister alexis tsipras will have to rebuild his government after more than a quarter of his own mps rebelled against his legislation. guy: janet yellen delivered an upbeat message. on capitol hill yesterday, she told congress the fed is likely to raise interest rate. she repeated plenty of less important information. she also noted progress in a labor market that has generated more than 2.9 million jobs in the last 12 months. anna: a decision is expected on emergency aid for the crisis-hit nation's banks. they will announce interest rates at 12:45 u.k. time. with a press conference later, we will bring you both of those life here on bloomberg. guy: we will be obsessed with greece at that point. we are pretty obsessed right now. anna: i don't think we could get more access.

outlook i expect it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and must begin normalizing monetary policy. i want to emphasize the course of the economy remains highly uncertain and unanticipated development could delay or accelerate the first. they will be watching. she added the recent decline in on employment rate masks continued problems such as millions of workers employed part-time for economic partners who want full-time work. they have to be reasonably confident they race back to a two to 3% target. as for the global economy while europe's economy is on a firmer footing the situation remained unresolved. she does not mention slower growth in the stock market correction in china one of our biggest trading partners. neil: still steady as ago. thank you very much. we're also hearing "the new york times" and reuters among others that the office of personnel management director, catherine parker led a highs resigned. the massive data breach has now affected north of 22 million largely federal workers and those for government contracts that gre

the rate outlook from her prepared testimony just released. she says, quote, if the economy evolves as we expect. economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal fundss and once rates starts to rise gradually. a weak quarter that was hurt by transitory effects like bad weather. the unemployment rate to keep dropping, as well as inflation to gradually rise to the fed's 2% target. but says that foreign developments pose some risks to the u.s. economic outlook. quote, the situation in greece remains difficult, she will tell congress and china continues to grapple with the challenges posed by high debt, and volatile financial conditions and the first acknowledgment that the fed is watching the declines in chinese stocks. >> basically the headline is that raising interest rates still on the table for 2015? >> yeah, and depending on how the data comes in, could be september, could be december and there's a couple other meetings in between, so-- >> all right, peter, thank you so much. we'll be watching the fed chairman's testimony later today. we've got that embargoed script already. amazon launching its prime day, calling it black friday in july. and wal-

the perspective of macro economic modeling. so as we have already discussed, monetary policy moves by moving interest rate, the short-term federal funds rate and short-term rates and if you think of quantitative easing on the slope of the europe curve and rates through inflation and expectations if people expect high inflation, the rates go up to expect for the inflation. and we expect how large the inflation would be and then use the macro economic model to figure out the consequences of the changes for macro aggregates. so compared to the previous papers, the same question more applied to -- from a modeling perspective. so the motivation for this paper goes back sometime and this is a concern widespread with the change in the macro economic environment but we both grew up in germany and we have a pathological fear of inflation. and so what is interesting for us is if you grow up in germany, in elementary school, you learn inflation is bad in second grade because of redistribution and grandma will lose her money because it is in a savings account because of the interest rate and then you have monetary models and they only have one ho

. >> the international monetary fund has been calling on the federal reserve to delay an interest rate hike until next year or risk stalling the u.s. economy. today the head of the imf described the u.s. economy as, quote, the strong performer. but add that had the world economy is fragile and still faces some downside risks. >> if i look at the global economy as it stands at the moment and the latest, the world economy outlook, we have a situation where growth is a little bit tepid, i would say. 3.3%, 2015. hopefully 3.8% in 2016 which is clearly better. so we have recovery as we have said. but it is fragile, unbalanced, and it is, there are some down side risks on the horizon. >> she also described china's economy as resilient despite the recent drop in that country's stock market. >> the global company is entering what it call a new era. microsoft, the world's largest software maker is launching an updated product, windows 10. it rolls out today. this one is free to most existing windows users. ininvestigators seem pleased. she sent shares 2% higher. as josh lipton reports, the comp

however, we are nearly seven years out with the federal funds bound.ill at the lower quantitative easing and low interest ratesave made on dancing of the nations deficit much easier and certainly has relieved the pressure to enact fiscal reform to solve our long-term debt problem. both you and your predecessor have argued that fiscal reform is important over the long-term. however, you've also stated that the school prudence can be ignored in the short term to not hamper the economic recovery. it has now been seven years. we can no longer say we are looking at the short-term when we are dealing with our country's debt problem. can we? so, i, like my predecessor, i believe the nation races a very serious debt problem in the years ahead. deficits, mainly because of congressional actions and those by the administration, have succeeded in lowering deficits to the point where for the next several years, the debt gdp ratio is stable but over time under cbo projections, as the population ages and especially of health care costs has beene what historically typical, the country will face an unsustainable debt path in w

when is the first federal rate increase? september. look at fed funds futures, less than a 20% chance of an increase. market say one thing, economists say another. right now folks are buying financial. assuming a steeper curve. if that steeper curve happens and in a orderly fashion, everything is fine. erik: do you worry about risk models and financials? they assume that low volatility is a sign of sinking, but it may not be. nick: you have to look at it backed up for three or four years old. our clients are getting smart. they're not just looking at the last 50 days anymore. erik: were you looking beyond vix?ix -- beyond the is there any volatility beyond stock futures and that narrow swap of fixed income? nick: there is a very broad array of tools you can use. you see the volatility absent flows through different sectors at different times. that sector has been working so well. volatility and financial for energy, much higher. brendan: i assume people are looking at the psychology of this. nick: it is a behavioral discussion more than anything else. a

all these people for many years, but it is a very tough decision to make because the central bank controls federal funds ratentrol the interest it is paying on deposits if it wants to keep the same monetary policy. you can being make a choice if the pressures there are in the marketplace, it can hold the reserve balances in the commercial banks -- if they raise rates, right now as you know paying 25 basis points. maria: right. >> for sovereign credit and that is a pretty good price. so that there is very little other than just plain turnover of debt it is very little big increase in debt private debt the consequence of this is that -- you can't really control what is going on there up to a point monetary policy can do only so much. maria: exactly i mean we have been talking about it. quickly final question here, dr. greenspan in terms of of the bond market bubble everyone is talk about being how worried are you that that has implications throughout groe global market. >> quite think of the issue concern everyone has about the level of debt think of what a level of debt means when you interest rates move. mar

the rule of law, federal funding should be denied to sanctuary cities that violate federal law and endanger their own citizens. and federal funding should be denied to universities that provide in-state tuition rateslegal aliens and open defiance of federal law. so this -- the threat to cut federal funding for sanctuary cities like san francisco is not new. but it will probably get some new attention and debate based on what has happened here recently. you can look for that. >> we'll see what happens. all right thank you so much. >>> thanks. it's now 6:52. northern california wildfire stopped short of dozens only homes, why a criminal -- of homes, why a criminal investigation is now underway. that's next. >> and i'm kiet do, we are live in san pablo where police say a taked boy inside a stolen car h rm. it's full of cool stuff, like my second in command... and my trusty bow. and free of stuff i don't like. and in my castle we only eat chex cereal. chex cereal. it's full of delicious crunchability. no artificial flavors, and it's gluten-free. and that's something even my brother ... sister can understand. mom, brian threw a ball in the house! we live in a pick and choose world. choose, choose, choo

the federal market committee, etc. -- are now expecting the fed funds rate, the overnight lending rate that's presently at around 0% toh up to.35% in the fourth quarter. that would imply a hike of more than a quarter of a percent over that duration but, you know, people are telling me also, well, neil, we're also at .10%. i have no idea. they expect by year end us to be around a third of a point. that would still be very, very low. of course, the fear in the markets is that we're going to go more than that, that the fed will start a series of rate hikes that will send us up much, much higher, but this is the first time we've at least seen a number attached to what that rate hike could be or where short-term rates could be by the end of the year. okay, this is coming from the worker bees. >>> all right, and this is coming from eyes that just look up in the sky, this notion that there is a planet just like ours, just bigger, older and about 1400 light years away. so i already told you that this is the opposite planet where, you know, just, for example, like, everything is upside down. seriously, i don't know that, becau

the victims' compensation fund. >> how much higher is the federal employees compensation act, feca, compensation rate compared to parts "a" and "b" reimbursements for hospitals? >> the statute -- the zadroga act sets the reimbursement rate according to the workers' compensation rates of the federal government, the feca rates. medicare rates are lower, but maybe by 10% to 20% lower. so they are -- the feca rates are higher, and our reimbursement rates for providers are higher than medicare. >> dr. howard, i can imagine it is logistical challenge to provide care for the responders and survivors who are scattered all across the country. what can you do to ensure that a physician in another part of the country seeing only a few world trade center patients benefits from the clinical experience of the physicians in the new york metropolitan region who have more experience treating these wtc related health conditions? >> the nationwide provider network that we have, which is currently seeing about 8,287 individuals, we have total coordination with that provider network. on the one hand, all of those individuals who do monito

the disease. there is a clear correlation between making research investments and to see if the mortality rate go down. >> is there an alternative if you don't get the federal government funding? it eating in the private sector to rival what the federal government potentially has the ability to do? limit the alzheimer's association we will initiate on our own to raise the level of funding from private givers. it is impossible with any disease to not have a strong investment of the federal government. there is an enterprise of a nonprofit organization like ours and the private sector. it takes all three sectors to make that work. looked at the gains made in cancer. >> i am thinking if you are sitting down with an officer of the member of congress they know the numbers in their also asked you name it. >> q haven't dissipated of what has occurred i have been in that situation. it has taken time to understand thoroughly but what is important to this but to give the public to realize the impact of the diseased the with any other cause there has to be a discussion about the issue. there was not discussion about alzheimer's it was taboo. there really pushed us a discussion of things

>> on the point we talk about the federal reserve later this year raising rates, could that be the moment in which a lot of the trades either through exchange traded funds, bond market, et cetera, people have a quote, up quote liquidity moment. >> we'll have to wait and see. each time the feds move or does anything, the markets react. we had this discussion two years ago with tapering and the markets were going to have major issues. we saw they were going too much volatility and go on their merry way. >> ben, do i see you nodding your head? >> 160 to 360 in 3-6 weeks. >> it's the atf market, i think, is your window into the liquidity that will not be there. the high yield market, particularly, the pressure we're seeing out of the energy sector and the exposure there is, i think, the black swan of the whole story. there's $18 trillion in etfs now. there's not enough liquidity to support some of those likely leveraged unrefined structures when they break. it did not exist. >> they used the term odd ball securities. i would love to know which he's referring to. to either have a discount lid outside the market. >> still, not a lot of people buying during th

funding. currently 18.4 cents. the problem is that the funding mechanisms that these plans rely upon are haphazard as other. their bill would lower the dividend rate paid to banks in the federal reserve system, raising certain customs fees, increasing collection rates on unpaid taxes and selling off 101 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. if you are going to have a strategic petroleum reserve, you probably should only sell oil from it for strategic reasons not because you want to raise some cash. paying for operating expenses by selling off assets is not a good way to manage your money. he goes on, what is especially infuriating about the bill is that we already have in the gas tax an ideal tool for raising money to pay for highways. it's a user tax, if you don't drive, you don't pay. and if you drive, it costs you less. conservative economists, has been an ardent advocate of the gas tax. indeed, refusal of congress to raise the gas tax is the ultimate expression of how irrational resistance has become. opposition to higher income taxes has theoretical justification. higher rates it might be a penalty for success. but no such argument exists against t