who's right on the fiscal cliff right now? >> well, i think that -- >> steven gilfoil. >> the consumer isn't paying that much attention to this. the regular american doesn't watch the financial news. he isn't reading the kinds of papers we read. and he's less concerned with this. >> should they be? >> they probably should be, but investors are more concerned with corporate news, with macroeconomic news. the senator made a statement today. you would expect some kind of posturing this week. we're still 30 days out or so. they don't really have to cut a deal yet. they have to look like they're fighting for what they want to fight for, yet please the constituents. they're probably going to put that off for a couple weeks. >> it's the other way around. washington should be paying attention to the consumer and realize how much is the stake here. when you look at the consumer confidence levels able to hold up. when you look at the retail sales numbers pensimentioned by and the idea we've stabilized when it comes to capital spending, t

day of fiscal reckoning is almost upon us by the end of this year the president of the united states and congress must come to some kind of tax and spending to avoid what is called the fiscal cliff is there the political will to find a compromise and does the u.s. risk its own fragile economy as well as the world's. to cross-talk the u.s. fiscal cliff i'm joined by edward harrison in washington he is the founder of credit write downs also in washington we have mark levine he is a senior advisor with the truman national security project and in new york we cross to anthony so he is the director of economic research for the reason foundation all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and what if i go to you first in washington give us the magnitude of the fiscal cliff ok a lot is being talked about it what happens if we go over the cliff doesn't sound like something good to happen. there you know there are three or four things that can have been terms of tax cuts and spending cuts tax increases and spending cuts and the total amount if we were to do absolutely nothing would be about six hundred billion dollars in a fifteen trillion dol

that dials back the entirety of the fiscal cliff i think there will be a fiscal cliff let's if you call that basically i think that we're going to see the payroll taxes they're going to go away the payroll tax reduction and in all probability we'll also see increased taxes that are associated with the health care reform bill that are. scheduled to go forward so those two which are you know somewhat smaller in terms of the fiscal cliff i think those will have been and so i think there will be some impact on the economy mark of the last word in the program go ahead i guarantee you i carried to the last word as i guarantee you whatever happens it won't be pretty it'll go down to the last minute they'll be all kinds of severe allegations thrown back and forth this summer twenty second december twenty third you're trying to take away our christmas it'll happen all right. thank you very much gentlemen many thanks and i guess the deed in new york and in washington thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and remember crosstalk. and if you. want to. live through scienc

goes over the fiscal cliff and what are politicians going to do to avert the fiscal cliff and can they come to an agreement let's step back out of this narrative that the u.s. has to avert this cliff in order to avoid recession and doesn't really matter long term mike whether we go off the fiscal cliff or not. no it doesn't it's just a little more pain now or a whole bunch more later this fiscal cliff they're talking about it's like it just appeared there in front of us and the whole thing is that this trap was set back in between two thousand and one and two thousand and three when we had we started the war on terror the war on afghanistan the war in iraq. and so we increased deficit spending then we bush we did the bush tax cuts which borrows prosperity out of the future you're going to cut taxes so there's less revenues and that increases deficit spending there's less revenues coming in you're still doing the same levels of spending then we increased the levels of spending when we passed medicare part d. all these things together add up to what is happening today these choices that

you look at the fiscal cliff. en years with no thought, no nuance, no kind of strategy about what's the best for america -- >> it's a sledgehammer. >> instead of a big dull hatchet, we need a scalpel with a bunch of surgeons. and congress is sitting there with saying they're going to get there. and that's bad. >> your solution is a lot more surgical. as david said, he went around the country and talked to people, and i found the same thing when i was on the cnn express on that bus trip, people understand what this means. they understand that we have to cut back on our spending but they are concerned about the lack of sophistication with which washington is handling this. >> yeah, but when? i get so sick of this. everybody says we have to cut spending. even my good friend david walker who i have so much respect for. david, when are we going to cut the spending? the answer always seems to be we'll do it next year or the year after that. it's not such a bad thing if we start now. i'm not so opposed to 10% spending cut

you look at the fiscal cliff. s $7 trillion in ten years with no thought, no nuance, no kind of strategy about what's the best for america. >> it's a sledgehammer. >> it's a big, dull hatchet when we need a sexual pep a a bunch of surgeons. that's the problem here. they need -- going off the fiscal cliff, and it is popular now to say maybe we should go off for a while -- >> that is gaining popularity. stephen moore, you and david have really spent a lot of time on this. your approaches to this are a little more certain. a lot more surgical. isn't that problem though, stephen? as david said, went around the country and talked to people. i found the same thing when i was on the cnn express on that bus trip. people understand what this means. they understand that we have to cut back on our spending. they are concerned about the lack of sophistication with which washington is handling this. >> yeah, but when? look, i get so sick of it. everybody says we have to cut spending. even my good friend david walker who i have

economy of the fiscal cliff. expectations remain mixed for fancier retailers, but some experts predict the debate in washington over taxes will simply delay holiday purchases made by wealthy americans. >> i would expect that holiday spend won't get impacted as much. some of the larger wealth items, tax planning, estate planning, that's where their focus will be. it may defer some of it because they've been preoccupied. >> reporter: tom jacobsen tracks consumer spending behavior and believes the fiscal cliff will impact shopping patterns. he says in an uncertain economy retailers will need to pay close attention to pricing. >> as the confidence erodes, you might need more discounting to sell a luxury good. but that extra discounting won't take away from that good-feeling luxurious. >> reporter: according to a study out today, half of u.s. consumers still plan to buy make a small luxury purchase in the next six months. of those, 53% want specialty food or drinks, 48% are in the mood for luxury clothing, and 48% are

senate and the house they didn't take over the house but the republicans i think do worse off the fiscal cliff than the democrats neither side wants it but the fiscal cliff happens if we get rid of the bush tax cuts it would be bad for the economy i don't dispute any of that what i think it allows republicans to do is to get out of their pledge they have made a tax pledge to people like grover norquist saying they would never raise taxes but the fiscal cliff does it automatically raises taxes then they can cut them in some way in between the current status and the fiscal cliff and they will never have broken their pledge ok what sounds very reasonable and to be where you come in and that's very really jump in there for a second well there's one thing worth more to say. if i can jump in there for a second. i have to i have to agree with mark on one point i love to hear what anthony has to say about this i think it's completely irresponsible honestly we have this brinkmanship i remember exactly when it happened and you know one of the reasons in fact in the u.s. government had a downgrade in its

the first was a generally down beat tenor pointing out that if we avoid the fiscal cliff, there is going to be drag next year from federal fiscal spending. the other thing that was curious, and i have been on the phone with economists for a couple hours now trying to figure out the meaning of it. when the federal reserve chairman said that potential gdp, which is the speed limit of the economy, could be below 2.5%. whether or not he was talking about that just retrospectively as in the past or if he meant that going forward. if he meant that going forward, there are important implications. he didn't exactly say that. >> the issue is that that's really what this market reacted to. when he was specifically asked about the fiscal cliff. sam, let me ask you about earnings. in terms of going off the fiscal cliff, what do you expect the impact to be on corporate earnings? >> i think corporate managers are sitting on their hands anyway, not really putting the money to work that they have on the sidelines. i think certainly it would depress earnings. right now we're in a decelerating earnings en

coming up, getting hit hardest from the fiscal cliff. we are teasing the rest of the fiscal cliff. democrats think they have the edge in talks over the fiscal cliff. is that the case? a political panel is weighing in coming out. the capital one cash rewards card gives you 1% cash back on all purchases, plus a 50% annual bonus. and everyone likes 50% more... [ midwestern/chicago accent ] cheddar! yeah! 50 percent more [yodeling] yodel-ay-ee-oo. 50% more flash. [ southern accent ] 50 percent more taters. that's where tots come from. [ male announc ] the capital one cash rewards card gives you 1% cash back on every purchase plus a 50% annual bonus on the cash you earn. it's the card for people who like more cash. 50% more spy stuff. what's in your wallet? this car is too small. gerri: the notorious gridlock escalating with neither side budging over the fiscal cliff. >> we put revenue on the table. significant spending cuts. >> you can't get more options. gerri: a one-two punch, at the end of the year. will washington ever get its act together and what is at stake? bringing in our all-s

ruben ramirez, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: still ahead, tonight's market monitor is watching the fiscal cliff, but thinks the economy and the stock market will continue gaining strength. russell investment's erik ristuben joins us. >> tom: next friday's meeting at the white house over the fiscal cliff comes as credit rating agency standard and poors put the odds of going over the cliff at 15%. beth ann bovino, senior economist at standard and poor's joins us. beth anne, did you hear anything today from either the president or house speaker that gives you more or less hope about a deal before the end of the year? >> well it sounded that both the president and boehner seemed to be a little bit more interested in working together. now, again this is just one day after the election. so let's see if that holds up. it does look like there are a few olive branches out there. we'll see if it continues. >> putting the odds at one in seven, one in eight we could still go over the cliff. cow agree that that will plunge the u.s. economy into recession and an unemployment rate back over 9%. >> i'm about i

falls off the fiscal cliff. if the cliff is averted... >> then i think you will see silver, platinum, palladium-- the so-called white metals-- outperform gold, because they will tend to outperform in a risk-on environment in a cyclical upturn. >> reporter: now, the other scenario: >> in an environment where we go off the fiscal cliff and we see continued problems on the debt side for the u.s., i think the gold price outperforms the white metals. >> reporter: gold's price will also depend on whether central banks continue to diversify their holdings into gold, and whether they implement more quantitative easing to boost growth. the outlook for platinum is a little more complicated. there have been major supply disruptions due to labor unrest in south africa, which produces nearly all of the world's platinum. it also depends on demand. >> europe is a key part of the platinum demand picture. if europe can recover, certainly that's going to bode well for platinum demand. if the price trades higher, it may affect some

the next decade. that has led some to describe what could be coming as a fiscal slope, not a cliff. whatever geological description you prefer, it is on the map for every american. >> susie: a critical issue in this fiscal cliff debate: jobs. if the government cuts spending and rais taxes all at once on january 1, the economy will lose 2.5 million job sylvia hall reports. >> reporter: in this baltimore lab, dr. curt civin researches leukemia in search of a cure. it's hardly a political job, but these days he's keeping a close eye on the federal budget. you see, the sequester-- the severe spending cuts headed our way in january-- could affect him. if it takes affect, it will cut an estimated $2.5 billion from the national institutes of health. dr. civin and researchers like him depend on grants from the institutes for funding. >> it's tough enough to cure cancer. tough battle. going to take a long time. to cut the funding, to have unevenness, to take a project all the way, and then say, "well, we can't scale this up the way we should, or even maintain it the way we should?" how can we

consumers are not worried about the fiscal cliff. intraday trading today shows investors are worried about the fiscal cliff. who's right? >> well, consumer confidence showed that consumers are excited about housing. i think that's the one small bright spot that we've all seen that people can take benefit of low interest rates to buy homes, to renovate their homes. i think that's a small shining spot. >> but the spirit of the question is, should we be worried about the fiscal cliff? are we making much ado about nothing? >> well, consumers should understand that out of the $610 billion possible impact of the cliff, $400 billion is coming right out of the consumers' pockets. i think the answer to your question is they should be concerned with it. they're not educated enough on it to understand that $400 billion comes directly from their pockets. >> don't go anywhere yet, folks. we have some breaking news. earnings out from your favorite company, herb. >> i've said all along this company cannot afford to print anything but a really great

barrett, welcome back, a little bit about the fiscal cliff and how damage you see going off the fiscalf would be, number one, to the economy generally you and number two to a particular passion of yours, and that is education. >> regarding the fiscal cliff, i liken it had to the last election, half the populace voted all we have to do is raise taxes on the rich. the other half of the populace voted no, we need to change entitlements. politicians representing those two sides are kind of intransigent, don't want to listen to the other side. the thought that you're gonna solve the debt problem in the united states by raising taxes on the rich, we know it's only a 6 or 7% of the trillion dollar deficit that we are running. i'm actually getting to be a fan now of let's do something and the congress doesn't seem to want to do anything. they are kind of like people who are overweight and they want to lose weight by maybe only having two helpings of pumpkin pie for dessert and not three. you know earthquake let's bring on simpson boles, let's bring on sequestration. let's get started on the pr

fiscal cliff strategy? what do you want to do with your money in the economy does go off the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, we were worried about that back in september, october. so even though we like the equity markets going into 2013, we wanted to hedge ourselves a little bit, so we took money out of equities. didn't just put it into cash. we put it into three areas we think are still good long term. one is we talk about emerging market equities, but i like emerging market debt. these monetary authorities are done tightening. they fought the inflationary problem that they had successfully. they're in hoed. yield curves could shift down. we stress doing it in local currency. the other areas are u.s. high yield, which i still think is valuable. we do think spreads will contract and emerging market equities as well. >> jordan, what about you? how are you preparing for what could be an eventuality where we go over the cliff and we've got to deal with higher taxes and a slower economy? a lot of people expecting recession in 2013, if, in fact, this occurs. >> think about what works well in a slow-grow

listen to this. >> in a worst-case scenario where the economy goes off the broad fiscal cliff, the largest fiscal cliff, don't think the fed has the tools to offset that. gerri: don't look at me, can't do anything if you can't avoid the fiscal cliff. what did you make of that? speak of the war is quite complicit dumb explicit. if the u.s. goes over the fiscal cliff, the jump in taxes would likely quickly push the u.s. economy into a recession and there is nothing the fed can do to prevent that from happening. gerri: it seems to have unloaded everything they have, the economy has to come back on its own now. >> they can do with the bank of japan is now supposedly considering, resort to negative interest rate policy. consumers would be charged to keep money in savings accounts. that is one way getting people to spend, i don't think that is likely to happen anytime soon. gerri: i think that is just crazy talk to lots of viewers. but it is reality. instead of getting paid for putting your money someplace, which is the way it normally happens, instead you have to pay for the privilege. now why

the fiscal cliff threatens the economy,-s over stock investors but what about bond investors? >> bond investors have to watch out for the fiscal cliff as well. a lot of analysts are not a souming that will completely go over it but they're really uncertain and saying you know there is a lot of repercussions that people with fixed income can v especially in municipal bonds. but i'm sure we'll get to that. >> tom: absolutely, normally uncertainty would help out the bond market. this year the bonds have done very well. there is no doubt about it but they have pealed in comparison to stocks, up double digits. government bond mutual funds up 3%. corporate invest graded a rated bond funds up 7%, general municipal bond funds up 9% all according to lipper. so they've underperformed the stock market despite all this uncertainty. >> yeah, they have. and you know, theyontinue to go up. you know, you have some quantitative easing going on. and so people have jumped into corporate bonds. you know, the municipal bonds have continued to be attractive. they're tax exempt. you know, so far, so

>> well, they've got to address the fiscal cliff first. i think that's merely a fiscal bridge into 2013. they just delay the hard decisions, the grand bargain, until later. as we get past that, hoping we get past that, into 2013, you know, we look forward to earnings improving the ining fr saw this past earnings season. we had 2% gdp. we want that to continue. housing has turn and is improving. consumer sentiment is getting better. we're looking for a decent 2013. the key is to at least have that fiscal bridge to get past the impact that the fiscal cliff would have. tho . >> let me throw out a question to all of you. can anyone explain this triple-digit rally today in stocks? we just went through past elections. what we saw was on election day, the last several elections, except for last time with barack obama being elected, there were minimal gains in this market or losses. it was flat on the session. to what do you attribute this triple-digit move? >> i wouldn't look too closely in today's move. you may, in fact, see another couple of per

get this, he says it's not the fiscal cliff. t even close. >> later -- >> we believe that there is a willful effort on the part of certain members of autonomy management to mislead shareholders when autonomy was a publicly held company. >> hewlett-packard ceo meg whitman first on cnbc this morning. the accounting scandal broken by our own david faber. he'll join me with what happens next at the troubled technology giant. >>> also ahead, no deal on a cease fire yet. we will get a front line report on the talks between israel and hamas militants. >>> also with us, bank of israel governor stan fischer gives his assessment of the financial impact of the latest conflict. why the rest of the world and the usa needs to monitor this. don't miss my interview with stan fischer coming up. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you n

the most pressing issue, the fiscal cliff. you've seen the big picture, potentially the larges tax increase in history. here's what you will feel. your household tax bill will increase by $3500 on average. that's according to the nonpartisan tax policy center. $55 billion would be cut from defense spending. that will likely mean job cuts, slower production, not good for those connected to the defense industry. another $55 billion would be cut from things like education, food inspections and air travel. we've assembled cnn's best to pore over this. ali velshi, host of "your money" at 1:00 p.m. eastern. jessica yellin is the white house correspondent. lisa is the capitol hill correspondent for cnn radio. ali, you and i have been yelling from the rooftops about the fiscal cliff for months. the election is now out of the way so the rest of the world is beginning to get how serious this is. so people are now aware that deep cuts are coming and economic disaster could happen. no one wants it to happen, but not a whisper about what th

coming up, getting hit hardest from the fiscal cliff. we are teasing the rest of the fiscal cliff. democrats think they have the edge in talks over the fiscal cliff. is that the case? a political panel is weighing in coming out. gerri: the notorious gridlock escalating with neither side budging over the fiscal cliff. >> we put revenue on the table. significant spending cuts. >> you can't get more options. gerri: a one-two punch, at the end of the year. will washington ever get its act together and what is at stake? bringing in our all-star panel. former campaign adviser to john mccain and doug shown also a fox news contributor. >> there might be a last-minute deal to sort of kick the can down the road and do framework for cutting spending and entitlements and tax reform. what i saw last week from the president and the congressional leadership doesn't give me optimism. gerri: i wanted to hear the president what the president had to say where he is traveling today. >> as president i cannot impose my will on congress. the congress of the united states, even though sometimes i wish i co

it is not just january with the fiscal cliff. what happens with the deficit ceiling again in february? there's just too many question marks out there. >> should i sell based on the tax hike on dividends or capital gains that may or may not take place? >> i don't know if you want to sell depending on who you are. a lot of people will sell. people will be doing tax swaps at the end of the year to try to position themselves beyond 2013. >> thanks very much. >>> we're going to head down to the nasdaq to seema mody. >> strong day for tech. it is apple that's stealing the show. check out this chart. just after eight straight weeks of ending in negative territory. shares of apple moving sharply higher, although still down about 20% from its september highs of 7.$705. and is providing a haloed effect to its suppliers. nuance communications said to be behind the siri app. that stock is up. omni vision rumored to be behind the image sensor used in the iphone, also moving sharply higher. overall tech is the best performing sector on the day,

thank you. >> the fiscal cliff deadline is just 35 days away. today the white house seems to have taken social security reform off the table as a component to any deal regarding the fiscal cliff. listen to jay carney. >> we should address the drivers of the deficit. social security is not currently a driver of the deficit. that's an economic pact. while the president supports engaging with congress on a separate tract to strengthen social security, for entitlements we need to look at medicare and medicaid. >> joining to us talk about that and more is alan krueger, chairman of the council of economic advisers. can you help us interpret what jay carney just said? a lot of republicans have gone into this debate and discussion saying, you want more in taxes but in the same time we have to have entitlement reform. is he taking that off the table, mr. krueger? >> the president has pursued a balanced approach all along. he's had entitlement reform on the table. if you look at budgets, there are tough decisions there relating to health care costs, which