the must major of the fomc. the recent confirmation of sally fisher as vice chair gives janet yellen a key ally. the doves have a majority with two confirmed haushish members. the is out on loretta mester. >>> global head of fx strategy at nomura, how is yellen going to tweak her data today based upon the all important cpi yesterday and the numbers out right now? >> yeah, i have to say i think the cpi data is very important. we've had three months now upside surprises. and her previous stance has been very relaxed on inflation emphasizing the downside risk to inflation that might need to be tweaked. i think what we are going to be listening very, very careful to is whether there's any change in her tone on inflation, whether she becomes more sa mat rec, acknowledging the upside risk, as well. if that's the case, we can see more of the type of trading patterns we saw yesterday in the bond market. i think that's the potential surprise today that the tone of inflation gets slightly tweaked. and that will be a big de

is reflected in the individual economic projections submitted in conjunction with this meeting by the fomc always each participant's projections are conditioned on his or her own views of appropriate monetary policy. the central tendency of the unemployment rate projections is slightly lower than in the march projections and now stands at 60 to 6.1% of this year. for mayor participants generally see the unemployment rate declining to its long run normal level by the end of 2016. the central tendency for gdp growth is 2.1 to 2.3% for 2014. down notably from the march projections. largely because of the unexpected contraction in the first quarter. over the next two years the projections for real gdp growth remain somewhat above the estimates of longer run normal growth. fomc participants continue to see inflation moving gradually back toward 2% over time as the economy expands. the central tendency of the inflation projections is 1.5 to 1.7% in 2014 rising to 1.6 to 2% in 2016. as i noted at the outset the committee decided today to make another major reduction in the pace of asset purchases

to ensure that policy is consistent with attaining the fomc's longer-run objectives of maximum employmentok is reflected in the individual economic projections submitted in conjunction with this meeting by the fomc participants. as always, each participant's projection are conditioned on his or her own views of appropriate monetary policy. the central tendency of the unemployment rate projects is slightly lower than in the march projections, and now stands at 60 to 6.1% at the end of this year. from there committee participants generally see the unemployment rate declining to its longer run normal level by the end of 2016. the central tendency of the projections for real gmt dp growth is 2.1 to 2.3% for 2014. down notably from the march projections, largely because of the unexpected contractions shun in the first quarter. over the next two years, the projections for real gdp growth remain somewhat above the estimates of longer-run normal growth. finally, fomc participants continue to see inflation moving only gradually back toward 2% over time, as the economy expands. the central tendency

and i want to emphasize as i have that the fomc will adjust policy to what it actually sees unfoldingin the economy over time, and that necessarily gives rise to a certain level of uncertainty about what the path of rates will be. and it is important for market participants to factor that into their decision making. you asked me about the dot plot. our forecasts are projections for the fed funds rate, and you do see a range of disagreement among the participants there. so by the time you get to 2016, there is a considerable range of opinion, and i think in part that reflects the uncertainties that i'm talking about that our participants do see different pace of recovery, different trajectories for inflation. and it's appropriate for them to adjust their thinking about what the path of policy should be to their own view of how the economy will evolve over time. and around each of those dots i think every participant who's filling out that questionnaire has a considerable band of uncertainty around their own, their own individual forecast. >> [inaudible] and then to craig. >> danny appl

>> we still think they have a little bit more to cut in the september fomc meeting. to me the surprise was janet yellen pretty much explaining away the recent rise of inflation readings both the core deflator and this week's core cpi. i guess with a large degree we viewed it as the crisis was theo weak at this time last year, but they still can be very comfortable with inflation i think that is why the bond market took off on this little rally at the announcement at 2:00. liz: not much different from of the of the last couple of meetings where they cut back indicating at some point tapering will stop and tightening will begin. >> the chairman did a great job today of skating that thin line between recognizing some of the data has gotten much better and there is some hot inflation data, but also recognizing there is still a lot of work to do and did not allow herself to get box into the corner to say they will raise or slow, she did a very good job of calm in the market down letting everybody know it will be data dependent, they are not going to change anything just ye

at 2:00, the fomc rate decision. sure to tune you will have the rate decision and janet yellen's news conference which begins at 2:30. tom will be joining mark crumpton today, talking about what the fed has to say. we have some earnings at 7:30 coming from fedex. after the bell, red hat. gm's ceo is back in front of lawmakers again today. scarlet, there you have it. inwe have general electric talks with france about its ge will refine guarantees on jobs, investments and access to technology. they made a competing offer. train signaling system as well. shares of adobe systems up close to 10% in premarket trade. it added online subscribers to the faster than projected rate in the second quarter. adobe has been pushing its cloud services. amazon unveiling its first smartphone later today. at&t will be the phones exclusive carrier. at&t was also the sole carrier for the iphone for four years. which brings us to our put a question of the day -- twitter question of the day. features would make you switch to an amazon smart

>> i think we will see the fomc indicating the u.s. economy is relatively -- that is what we should begin to anticipate, a shift down and monetary policy support. the recent reductions in bond purchases will lead to a lot of sensitivity. i think janet yellen will say, do not take this too seriously. we are much interested in shoring the economy. >> you are warning against the overinterpreting of the dots, perhaps. they will not do a carney. mark carney is the governor of the bank of england, taking markets by surprised by suggesting that interest rates could go up in the u.k. >> he has a really difficult challenge. inflation numbers down much less -- we are talking about 2/10 of a percent on yesterday's inflation numbers. ensure the economy does not get ahead of itself in terms of raising inflation pressures, .articularly wage inflation how to see an sure he does not have to raise rates above 2.25%? if he leaves it, there is a possibility has to tighten quite aggressively to put the genie back in the bottle. >> do you think he overplay

i think tomorrow do not dismiss the relevance longer term of the fomc meeting. >>> that does it for us rest of the day. power starts right now. >>> halftime is over. the second half of your trading day begin now. >>> good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch." free and fair markets. we have two major stories. first off a key senate subcommittee taking up the shy. testify you is one of the men in the thick of the fight. then research out today showing that one quarter, 25% of deals involved public companies are linked to insider trading. it's an important study.

that will come out from the minutes of the fomc will be where everybody on the dot.laces their matrixhere is great article on business insider, "could janet carney"? the full what mark carney did last thursday, you have got it wrong, we are going to raise rates. >> downgrade expectations for the u.s. economy? >> the imf has already done that. this year.4% or 5% >> inflation picking up. >> above 2%. >> ge said to the refining its alstom bid to assure france. presenting akaeser joint bid with mitsubishi. coming down to the wire. they could make a new offer by friday. perhaps some new concessions? >> that's right. probably not going to be an increase in the prize, $17 billion for the energy assets. could be more guarantees offered by ge on the bid. according to people familiar with the matter, ge will increase the number of job creation. they have promised to create 1000 french jobs over the next two years. they want to make sure the french retain access to nuclear technology. response to siemens lobbying yesterday in paris. ceo,-- joe kaeser, the was in front of lawmakers arguing for hi

the fomc has no target for what the right level of volatility should be. to the extent that low levels of the liddy may induce , fortaking behavior, that example, entails excessive tilde and leverage, or maturity things that can pose risks to financial stability later, that is a can turn to me and the committee. i do not know, a number of reasons have been dated for what we are seeing in the marketplace. i do not know if overconfidence -- org place and see complacency is one of those. market dispenser recognize there is uncertainty about what the path of short-term rates will be. that is necessary the is there is uncertainty about what the path of the economy will be aired and i wanted to rise, as i have, that the the will adjust policy to let it actually sees unfolding in the economy over time and that necessarily gives rise to a certain level of the about what the path of rates will seize. it is in orton or market participants to factor that in to their decision making. about projections for the fed funds rate. you see a range of disagreements among part

the fomc has no target for what the right level of volatility should be. but to the extent that low levels of volatility may induce risk-taking behavior that entails buildup in leverage or extension of maturity, things that can pose risks to financial stability later on, that is a concern for the committee. i don't know if overconfidence or complacency is one of those reasons, but i guess i would say it is important, as i emphasized in my opening statement, for market par tticipants that ther is uncertainty. and the adjustments to the policies will be adjusted over time, and that gives rise to a certain level of uncertainty about what the path of rates will be. and that's important for market participants to factor into their decision making. you asked me about the dot plot, forecasts or projections for the fed funds rate. you do see a range of disagreement among the participants there. by 2016, there is a considerable range of disagreement. participants do see different rates of trajectories of inflation and recovery. and they adjust this to their own vie

acura, the fomc decision is out on thursday. how does what is happening in the u.k.ct future moves by the fed in the u.s.? pimco'sclarida is global security advisor. i am digesting this. i sat in the press conference of the inflation report last month. the man standing in front of me was not the man at the speech last week. he was still pushing back against expectations of an early rate rise. what is your take on what happened last week? >> the u.k. economy has been strong for a year, stronger than the bank of england. there's also pressure on england. the imf and others are saying there is another housing bubble. i was in london last week, it is expensive. you have to understand that central bank governors have to be very careful in communications. even that the data is changing daily, they are only giving in frequent speeches. what we found out is that we have ratcheted up the rhetoric to get a sooner rate hike. the market has been pricing in february 2015 for a first rate hike, now they are pricing in november 2014. he wanted to bring market expectations in line w

come in his guidance and what he has talked about today does not reflect a majority of the views of the fomccannot imagine them changing and such a short amount of time since the meeting. >> janet yellen said last week that accommodative monetary policy, rising property and equity prices, and improving global economy should lead to above trend growth. we saw that number revised downward for the first quarter gp -- gdp, 2.9%. that is not insignificant. was it an aberration or is it a harbinger? >> a lot of people think it was due to the weather, but it is hard to believe that all of it was due to the weather. i think what we take away from it is not necessarily that the an threat ofddenly going into recession or something like that. what it is is that it is still fragile. i think it is the fragility issued that janet yellen is concerned about. >> and it is also about how profits decline. and till we get to the second quarter, if we had a v and go down like this and then go back like this -- what if we only go halfway back? what is that saying? this was not just the weather, there was more goi

we've got the fomc meeting next week. here also some kind of concern filtering in that actually given some of the data coming through now from the u.s.? we could be surprised at the june meeting. not necessarily as far as tapering's concerned, but the message they give us, perhaps, raises eyebrows about the timing of hikes. >> this is a risk in the sense it's very strange to see that the bond market does not believe the forecast of the fed. so it is a very tough job to bring back the market and to tell them, okay, listen, we have some forecast. we believe that interest rates would be at such level may be optimistic and realistic about the prospect for the interest rates and equity market in the future. so i believe, yes, there is a that the market would be surprised. >> the support mario draghi has provided in the last week or so, does that give you greater confidence? >> yes, i think, clearly a good step. it's not -- it was in a way a correction. the ecb needed to act, show they were able to find a consensus. yes, it's a

the fomc kicking off its two-day meeting. the decision will come tomorrow at 2:00 p.m.ime followed by a janet yellen conference. more economic data on the way. we've got may consumer pricing index and housing starts. both of those at 8:30 eastern time. on the earnings front, we've got adobe system out quarterly results on today's squawk planner. becky quick, back to you. >> andrew, thank you. >>> a marginally positive start to the trading week despite tensions in iraq. investors will be focusing on that fed meeting set to begin today. jim russell, chief equity strategist at u.s. bank in cincinnati. gentlemen, welcome to both of you. jim, let's start off with you talking about what to expect from the fed meeting. do you think that things will look difference when we hear from each of the fed officials about when they expect rates to start rising? >> yeah. good morning, becky. we think a couple of things are pending pb number one, they'll probably take their unemployment rate forecast for 2014 down a notch. we're down at 6-3. were clearly expect them to continue to taper

i think tomorrow do not dismiss the relevance longer term of the fomc meeting. >>> that does it for us. have a great rest of the day. power starts right now. >>> halftime is over. the second half of your trading day begin now. >>> good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch." free and fair markets. we have two major stories. first off a key senate subcommittee taking up the shy. testify you is one of the men in the thick of the fight. then research out today showing that one quarter, 25% of deals involved public companies are linked to insider trading. it's an important study. we want to know if you think it should be legalized. we're going to debate that today. go vote. is it in effect a victimless crime? there is new information regarding the health of housing in the united states. what is your home worth? we will tackle that one with one of the nation's top housing economists. and then oil up more than 3% over the past week, largely, of course, over fears about iraq's production. despite that, the airlines getting a pop today. they are generally up, up and away with gains of

now, quite some time ago, the fomc adopted, and we reaffirmed just in january, a statement on our longer-run goals in policy strategy. and with that statement said, is that, first of all, whenever either inflation or employment are away from their preferred or mandate-consistent levels, it will always be the fomc's policy to make sure that we get back to those target levels over the medium term. but a principle that's embodied in that statement is that the committee will follow a so-called balanced approach in deciding on its policies. and essentially, that means that when we see some conflict between achieving the two objectives, that we would consider in deciding on a policy just how far we are from achieving each of the objectives and if the distance from achieving an objective is particularly large, it would be consistent with the balanced approach that we would tolerate some movement in the opposite direction on the other objective. but balanced approach is the general policy strategy, i think we'd follow. >> michael mckee from bloomberg television and radio. i'd like to ask you about y

we've got a fox business exclusive with philly fed president charles plosser a voting member of the fomc some very pointed comments that may have affected the markets today. >>> marc andreessen, easily one of the biggest names in venture capital and his firm is making its second largest investment ever. where? a partner at andreessen horowitz is going to join us live and tell us where he is making his next big bet. >>> with stocks in record territory where can you pick up some bargains? we have names of very inexpensive stocks, call them cheap, in an an inexpense -- expensive market. stay tuned. ♪ [ male announcer ] if you suffer from a dry mouth then you'll know how uncomfortable it can be. [ crickets chirping ] but did you know that the lack of saliva can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath? [ exhales deeply ] [ male announcer ] well there is biotene. specially formulated with moisturizers and lubricants, biotene can provide soothing relief and it helps keep your mouth healthy, too. [ applause ] biotene -- for people who suffer from dry mouth. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires you

median forecast of the fomc is for 1.13%. that is very transparent. if you look at the fed funds futures market, it is expecting a first rate hike in july or august of next year. that is well telegraphed in advance. if there is going to be a trigger for correction, it is simply a question of valuations in the market is looking for an excuse to take some profit off the table. mind you, i don't think this correction is likely to see the end of the bull market in the u.s.. the trigger could be higher oil prices for longer. >> that is at least one way of looking at it. wouldn't you agree with me that cheap money has been i can drive for equity markets. we may see the gritty come out of the system as well -- we may see liquidity come out of the system as well? >> i have heard that line every year since 2010. there is a one year that hasn't gone by that we do not have the routine that the markets are addicted to cheap money. as long as you have moderate growth in cheap money, these are linked. the alternatives are very poor. aboutr we are talking risk in equ

number one thing to watch tomorrow will be at the fomc policy statement and janet yellen's second news for the feds update in economic forecast as whether the central bank will taper its asset purchases and we will have her life on fox business. >> it's like we have been waiting for this all week. "the willis report" is next and jerry will be speaking with a top lawyer representing jim victims, right next. gerri: yes to remember great show coming and have fresh details on gm ceo mary barris, before the committee tomorrow including new information on a victim settlement. also coming today individual investors robbed of their retirement savings imus steered into risk investments to read we will a growing problem. also, lost bags, canceled flights, the dsa and has of line forcing people to do something downright un-american. celebrities financial advisors suzy orman, her approved card discontinued. we will find out why her much-publicized debit card was canceled.

structural breaks, maybe we get down to 10 unless there is something surprising that comes out of the fomc>> in terms of the market drifting higher, what is a more aggressive options strategy question mark it does not seem like you are expecting a big move -- strategy? it does not seem like you are expecting a big move. >> no big move. interest hoping that the 3.5 million contracts expire. >> is there anything that will add more action into the markets, more volatility, or are we in to this for the summer no matter what happens on the outside? >> based on what we know, the unknowns stay where they are, and there is always the possibility of the unknown unknown, the clichÉ. see a game testing the 50-day moving average. what is the correlation in the options market? >> we are seeing bullish activity. the company stated it might have to restate its financial statements for 2011 and maybe 2012 and 2013 statements, and that spooked the market and the stock fell off sharply after rising to all-time highs earlier this month. today, we see the reversal of that. maybe investors see that the whatmen

commentary next week from janet yellen at the fomc meeting. the past two out of three scheduled meetings the weeks of those meetings the s&p's been positive. i think going forward that we're going to see incremental gains in the economy. hopefully we'll see improvements in industrial production on monday. gains maybe on tuesday. the philly fed on thursday. all in all it's a catalyst for better improvement. but really in the upcoming weeks we're going to the twilight zone. we're ending the first quarter reporting period and not going to see the second quarter earnings until sometime in early july. so that time a lot of -- holding the market capital, which. could be geopolitics. >> rick santelli, jump in here. what would you like to see? what do you expect to see? >> i like what our guest said, the trend is your friend. and i would just like to add, especially when the fed is part of the trend. and i think that really dovetails nicely into the notion that we will learn on wednesday of course if there was any changes. there shouldn't be. janet yel

iraq, russia and ukraine still very much at the forefront of investors minds as we head towards the fomc. right now, we have uk cpi from the uk, the lowest level since october 2009, perhaps reducing some of those concerns about when mark carney is going to raise rates here. we've got gains in the german and french markets, higher by around 0.4 had%. with all the things going on in the markets right now, the geopolitical risk, the gains, how do you make money? here is what some have been telling us this morning. >> we've been seeing in turkey, for example, that investors have been flocking into these markets after the elections at the end of march. there's been a large -- in the market about rebalancing and improving current account in turkey. the oil prices will quickly suffer that trend. >> oil, on the worldwide -- and gdp. it's a real player. it will be very interesting to see how that is reflected and, of course, what happens with respectability. it's a real player. >> it's a worrying sign that the level of volatility has said investors are starting to get slightly complacent. and if

the most heated debate on the fomc. he fed historically interpreted unemployment rates is very different in terms of the economic environment in the context. the reason is there has been distortion in the labor markets that has fallen in labor participation rate. there is the rising gap between short-term and long-term unemployment. us initiallyells there could be more in the economy, which begins to materialize with the recovery bringing more people out of the woodwork into the labor market. in the fall and the unemployment rate will be slower going forward. i could potentially leaving this. >> you are going for the cyclical argument rather than the structural argument, pushing back the rate forecast to the first half of 2016? which is later than many. >> i think so, absolutely. the markets have already priced out some of the rate hikes the first half of next year. there was confusion about janet yellen communication earlier this year. i think that very much depends on how quickly we are going to get to the point where

and this is ultimately driven into the fomc. >> they don't listen. >> this is lockhart you're talkingrrific guy. he is. >> so he listens to you. when we say you're with the atlanta fed. you're not really with the atlanta fed. >> he goes to meetings. he goes to meetings. >> the fomc they don't have like they say okay -- these business guys in there. >> actually, i would give the fed great credit with trying to get good input on what's going on in the economy. i think they're terrific. >> yeah? >> i really do. honest and truly. >> and the last five years they've distinguished themselves? >> where would we have been without them? >> i don't know. we'll never know. >> the question is, here again, value is a function of risk and return. how much return did we get? i.e., how much did gdp grow because we did certain things. how much risk did we take on? it's a fair question as did we take on more risk than the growth warranted? and i think they're unwinding now the qe position. that makes sense. so you know. >> you know, if they can orchestrate this perfect story and this perfect narrative t

also, the weaker dollar after that dovish stance that we got from the fomc. remember, also, that we did call this move correctly, our own cnbc proprietary poll said that gold prices would end the week on a stronger footing and that is what we are seeing in the market as we round off the week. elsewhere, the oil market continues to climb. we seem to have found something of an intermediate at around $115 a barrel. there is potential to move higher. but we're also hearing that if we see material disruptions to the southern oil flows from iraq, we could see the price of brent crude off to the races. a lot of my contacts are telling me 120, 125 is a distinct possibly if that happens. let's any flip the boards and show you what's happening in the currency markets. euro, just a shade above 1.36. dollar/yen, 102.02. aussie under a bit of pressure and cable at 1.7055. next week, carolin, will be interesting because we get u.s. goods data, gd pt and the case-shiller home price index. we could see some further gains. back to you now. >>> now back to one of our top storie

the fomc has no target for what the right level of volatility should be. but to the extent that low levels of volatility may induce risk-taking behavior that, for example, entails excessive buildup in leverage, or maturity extension, things that can pose risks to financial stability later on, that is a concern to me and to the committee. i don't know whether a number of reasons have been cited for what we're seeing in the marketplace. i don't know if overconfidence or complacency is one of those reasons, but i guess i would say it is important, as i emphasized in my opening statement, for market participants to recognize that there is uncertainty about what the path of interest rates, short-term rates, will be, and that's necessary because there's uncertainty about what the path of the economy will be. and i want to emphasize as i have that the fmoc will adjust policy to what it actually sees unfolding in the economy over time. and that necessarily gives rise to a certain level of uncertainty about what the path of rates will be. and it is important for ma

tuesday, the two-day fomc meeting on monetary policy to find out about interest rates. the consumer price index is due and housing starts will be in for may. on wednesday, amazon has an event tech insiders believe may launch the e-tailors pea's first smartphone. >>> all you baby boomers out there step aside. for the first time in 67 years there are more members of another age group. according to the census bureau, it is the millennials. personal finance correspondent sharon epperson is here to tell us more about this generation and what others can learn from them. >> well, becky, generally speaking millennials are the children of boomers who range in age from 18 to 33 years old. there is a lot to learn about this generation. coming of age in a financially tumultuous time is key in defining the millennial generation's views on money and life. >> the 2008 and 2009 great recession really did have a key impact both on me an my generation as far as how we choose to save for our future retirement. indefinitely i would say that our parents played a role in that seeing what they

with this problem in iraq is all the less likely that at next week's fomc meeting the fed might indicatepen sooner as opposed to later. lou: you think this might inspire a higher interest-rate? >> i think the fed will go ahead and not give any hand and what it is bringing forward. lou: this fed would do well, i think, to shut up for a little while. i think this fed really needs to pull in its horns. >> that would help to discourage excessive risk-taking as far as leveraging of balance sheets. if there is more uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy then perhaps players will be more careful about taking on additional debt. lou: is there any reason for the consumer in this economy right now to feel guilty because he or she is being cautious? not taking unnecessary risks or getting excited about going into debt? >> i think it is wise at this point in time to proceed with caution, be careful of taking on additional debt. the labor market is still relatively slack. in some cases you really don't know about the durability of prices, such as housing. one of the reasons why housing ha

anticipated by the committee, results in a more rapid convergence of employment or inflation to the fomc's objective, then increases in the federal funds rate target are likely to happen sooner and be more rapid than currently envisioned. conversely, if economic change disappoints, increases in the federal funds rate target are likely to take place later and to be more gradual. before taking your questions, i would like to provide an update on the committee's ongoing discussions on the mechanics of normalizing the stance and the conduct of monetary policy. to be clear, these discussions are in no way intended to signal any imminent change in the stance of monetary policy. rather they represent prudent planning on the part of the committee and reflect the committee's intention to communicate plans to the public well before the steps become appropriate. the committee is confident that it has the tools it needs to raise short-term interest rates when it is appropriate to do so. and to control the level of short-term interest rates thereafter. even though the federal reserve will continue to h

it trades down the day after and fomc meeting. chevron is up almost 4% over the last day or so. companies like eog are up. today is a more defensive tone. you can see health care stocks modest gains for all of them. i've been asked about what is going on. right across the board though. gold, silver and gold miners are on the upside. there is unusual activity. we are getting 200% global volume in the slv. the gold bugs seem to believe that miss yellin has implied that she is willing to tolerate a higher level of inflation. they will give us their best stock picks. harley davidson making a big move. more power to you in twop minutes. and a developing story from the white house. we are monitoring the situation. we expect new details about the next steps in that country. we'll have that for you live. p what can your fidelity greenline do for you? just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can inves

the next fomc meeting is wednesday, june 18. sts are all over the map on a, who will win the world cup, and b, what matters to janet yellen? neal dutta is head of economics at renaissance capital. we talked about this before. let's start with the basics. when the chair says flack, what does that word mean? the level of at activity in the labor market. basically the on implement rate relative to where the limit rate should be to generate inflation. >> help me. the gloom crew has been quieted. a splash of goldman sachs earlier this week with a more optimistic view. which is it? of opinions.l where is the center tendency? >> i think just from all else, the consensus right now -- the earth quarter was a throwaway. for all. reasons, technical economists may be downgrading be first quarter even more. but if we're generating over 200,000 jobs a month, what difference does it make? there is not a class in productivity. we know that from the earnings numbers. is verydata noisy. i think we're generating solid job growth as we have been, it

. >> the fed in focus today as we get ready forbe the fomc interest rates. er 10 become will get cut from the bond purchase program. when will raise start rising again? later, we will talk about lime and glock. you might get hit in the wallet. chipotle and others are hiking prices as costs rise. the ceo of limon e.r.a. talks citrus prices and more in just a bit. "squawk" returns in just a moment. >>> take a look at u.s. futures this hour. things turned positive. they were up before, dow is up 3.5 point. we are back in a moment. ♪ little inner welcome back to "squawk box." take a look at this, fedex shares are jumping after an upbeat earnings report, they were ten cents above estimates. revenue beating consensus, conacura goods is taking a lit after preliminary fourth quarter earnings, conagra- now says it expects to report a profit of 55 cents per share, that compares to consense us estimates of 62 cents. the company cut its outlook due to a 7% food unit as well as weak profits for its private brands, then adobe systems earned 37 cents per share for its secon

sipes like the market is very -- seems like the market is static until then. fomc on 18th. d. 30th eurozone inflation and second-quarter earnings season on july the 8th. so any of those could be narrative changing. right now the equity market is very uncontroversial, it loves the stackic environment. it wants to grind higher right now. that is it. liz: that was energy. we like larry. he is juiced up even though the markets are closed. thanks, larry shover. >> you're welcome. adam: from backup cameras to interactive radio to wi-fi. the idea of a connected car is taking off with the average american spending 16.5 hours a week in their car. companies are eager to get the attention of a driver. liz: what about the investment opportunities here? can you, the investor, profit from the rush to dominate the dashboard? we bring in james marsh, piper jaffray senior media, entertainment analyst. it is fascinating to see now how every single car company realizes when their driver gets into their car they need to be automatically, totally connected. what happens next in this very fast-mo

goldman saying changes to the june fomc statement were limited and on balance just slightly more dovishss in wage growth remains a key policy driver keeping an eventual rate liftoff pushed back probably not until the second half of next year. this is how yellen thinks about wages. noninflationary wage growth is inflation which is at 2% plus productivity is 1%, that's 3%. we're currently at 2. yellen pretty specifically has said, she's willing to abide wage growth of 3% to 4%. larry how sensitive is the market right now when it comes to these inflation numbers? how much time does yellen have to say, it's noisy if these numbers keep going up? >> i think obviously if the noise is loud -- you know, more than 0.4%, and gets higher, then she's not going to have as much time. i just don't -- i think it is noise. i don't think there is that much inflation within the economy. so, i think she has more time. i would like to see wage increases too. i think that's one of the big problems we have in the economy. but marketplace is -- has been always understatementing janet yellen since she became fed

a more interesting meeting, the big question is how much concern and tolerance the fed chair, janet yellen, and fomcnflation, likely heated discussion at the meeting, rising faster than expected towards the fed's 2% goal. chances of a spike in headline prices and resulting passed through core inflation are rising due to geopolitical events meaning iraq and what's going on in the ukraine. he's some two measures of inflation. green is the number we got yesterday, up towards 2%. the blue is the inflation measure the fed follows, the pce inflation measure. it usually runs a little colder, i guess, than the cpi number. however, we don't have a report yet on that, and it could be that the next time around we get that report in the next week or so, this will run at or near the 2% inflation level. first of all, on the issue of inflation there, it may tolerate 2% inflation. one is rise, the other is stable. rates and tapering are based on labor inflation, and, of course, the wage outlook, which has been stable. here's the fed's inflation forecast. we'll watch it today. 155 for 20 14. it could go up 175, not