the primary. what impact do decisive primaries have on a general election? >> it depends on how they're divid divided. generally as i think back over the past, if the base candidate wins in a divided primary, they have a better shot at the general election. the thing about this romney campaign, i can't recall a presidential candidate having this much trouble with his base, by that i mean the conservative and very conservative voters, which includes tea party and evangelicals. a candidate who has this much trouble with his base, even if he gets the nominee winning the general election, now you go back to, say, ronald reagan and gerald ford in 1976. there was the emerging conservative base in the republican party that reagan captured and almost won the nomination but lost and gerald ford lost the election. and jimmy carter in 19 -- what year was that? >> 1980. >> 1980. having so much trouble. his base actually ran against him. ted kennedy and the democratic national committee ran against their sitting president. that was a divisive primary, but carter got the n

among republicans and what is the chance of the general election that. romney is a more moderate candidate has more natural appeal to independents. and there is an exception to the rule, that is a reagan. and the general rule is there is an easier chance to win. so i think all indicators now are turning to romney. i think for a lot of candidates it's mostly a question of facing reality, sooner or later. >> quickly on local race we talk about it earlier on special report with a local panel. this is don manzullo against adam kinsinger. what does that tell you about that red on red battle? its tough this, is a redistricting battle when this popped up. he is the new young freshman a big star served in iraq, afghanistan, only 34 years old, came in on the wave with the tea party. the tea party left him. they don't like the way he's he leadership in washington. manzullo was really with more constituents in this district and many people told me they thought he would win. this is a very contentious issue with republican incumbents furious at their leadership invol

him yet and so, i think the theory is we have to win the nomination, then we'll worry about the general election. i think he will worry about trying to come up with amnesia pixie dust to sprinkle if he get to the general. >> he has been good at inventing new histories for himself, i i'm sure that won't change. gene robinson, thank you for joining us on this exciting night. 72% of the vote in, 33-32-30, rick santorum, newt gingrich, mitt romney. very, very close. too close to call in mississippi, a three-way race. in alabama at this point, also too close to call, and a three-way race. mitt romney at 28%. in both states ron paul running a distant fourth, ron paul did not campaign or spend money in either of these states. as soon as we know, you will know who has won and who has not tonight. we will stay on tv as long as that takes tonight, please stay with us. >>> nbc news can project a result in the republican primary in the great state of alabama. nbc news can project that the winner of the republican primary in alabama is rick santorum. we're still waiting for further results from mississippi,

amount of money out there and a lot of it is poured into the primary instead of going into the general electionow, if they save the money, they'll be able to spend it in the general election but the burn rate particularly for romney right now he has a ridiculously burn right and go back to john king's scenario, i interviewed newt gingrich this morning and he doesn't see santorum's prolonged viability largely because of one of the scenarios john qinghailighted what if romney wins ohio and tennessee gingrich remains in second place in the delegate count and thinks he'll be able to rebound. his staff told me he thinks santorum got his best shot at romney in michigan and fell short of it and they really see this race rebounding between the non-romney candidates which to james' point drags it out. >> james, to mary's point, which was that romney's got to kind of energize conservatives more, i think i'm right on what she said, do you believe that this is actually by doing that, by trying to appeal to conservat e conservatives someone said paul begala was saying he was moving to the right throughout t

among republicans and what is the chance of the general election that. moderate candidate has more natural appeal to independents. and there is an exception to the rule, that is a reagan. and the general rule is there is an easier chance to win. so i think all indicators now are turning to romney. i think for a lot of candidates it's mostly a question of facing reality, sooner or later. >> quickly on local race we talk about it earlier on special report with a local panel. this is don manzullo against adam kinsinger. what does that tell you about that red on red battle? its tough this, is a redistricting battle when this popped up. he is the new young freshman a big star served in iraq, afghanistan, only 34 years old, came in on the wave with the tea party. the tea party left him. they don't like the way he's he leadership in washington. manzullo was really with more constituents in this district and many people told me they thought he would win. this is a very contentious issue with republican incumbents furious at their leadership involved in this race

but that is not really a translatable asset to the general election. mitt romney has a better story on the deem grsk -- demographic front. >> it will be hard for any republican to capture the independents. the more it goes along the further to the right it becomes. you have a guy like that talking about gasoline prices and wants to go to war with iran. the problem you have is mitt romney will have to start talking about going to war with iran. the statements he made this weekend about the president being effectless on foreign policy, and theny quotes the president's foreign policy. it makes no sense to me. independents are smart enough to see that, and they will not support it. >> they will vote on the economy. you know that well enough. mitt romney has not taken the bait. if he were, he would have rejected totally what he did with health care in massachusetts and quite to the contrary he has not given in to the analysts who have said you have to reputiate it. he has almost double downed on it. >> he loves the ryan plan. seniors don't care for that. >>

among republicans and what is the chance of the general election that. ey is a more moderate candidate has more natural appeal to independents. and there is an exception to the rule, that is a reagan. and the general rule is there is an easier chance to win. so i think all indicators now are turning to romney. i think for a lot of candidates it's mostly a question of facing reality, sooner or later. >> quickly on local race we talk about it earlier on special report with a local panel. this is don manzullo against adam kinsinger. what does that tell you about that red on red battle? its tough this, is a redistricting battle when this popped up. he is the new young freshman a big star served in iraq, afghanistan, only 34 years old, came in on the wave with the tea party. the tea party left him. they don't like the way he's he leadership in washington. manzullo was really with more constituents in this district and many people told me they thought he would win. this is a very contentious issue with republican incumbents furious at their leadership involved

tennessee, et cetera, and gets that delegate map argument working, it's time to start to look at the general election, and triangulate a little bit. he has to go out and lose an alabama primary to send a message to the general election with a positive message not just pure base orthodoxy and anger it's very important for him. it will be painful in the primary but that's the price of getting his positives back up because without them the obama guys will keep him back on his heels. he will will have to pivot and a sharper message of what he can do for the country and less than what is wrong with everybody else. >> charlie, i agree with mike, but they say two-step and perceptions matter. this is really probably not about delegates because as i said it's hard to make a case for anybody else. there is three threats of of primaries, the people's republican of vermont, massachusetts, they're mitt romney. the caucuses in the west, i hate to say this to my friends out there, no one is going to pay any attention to. there are two others that matter, ohio on the one hand, and the southern arc, oklahoma, tenness

show's the candidates strengths and weaknesses, particularly in ohio, a bellwether state for the general election. 51% of ohio republicans said mitt romney had the best chance of beating president obama in november, 24% said it was santorum. the economy a top concern, 26% said the deficit was the top issue. voters with an economic focus backed romney by an eight-point margin over santorum. gingrich won 18% of voters who said the economy was number one. ron paul in single digits. romney struggled in some areas. nearly 40% of ohio republicans saying romney not conservative enough. santorum led the way in that demographic as the most conservative. as well as with evangelicals, 47% of whom backed santorum. this all in the state of ohio. relidgeth, an important factor in tennessee's primaries where 43% said it mattered a great deal that the candidate shared their beliefs. those voters went to rick santorum by a margin of 3-1. santorum's win in tennessee was critical, helping to offset romney's charge. it was a convincing win by santorum in tennessee, a state that romney thought he might be able to win

whatever he said and shake it up and it will be drawn and he will draw a whole new picture for the general election. >> you could not have found a more perfect illustration of why people distrust romney than to have his communications director say that the etch-a-sketch allows you to erase everything in the general election. >> romney called a media moment to address the etch-a-sketch controversy. >> the issues i am running on will be the same, a conservative republican. i was a conservative republican governor and i will be running as a conservative representative nominated for president. the policies and positions are the same. >> can you make a promise to republican voters that you will not be staking out more moderate positions on the issues you have taken so far in this process? >> i think i just answered the question. >> an avail is more than one question. >> this wasn't an avail. it was a chance to respond to a question i didn't get a chance to respond to. >> bad news when the candidate has to clean up the campaign staff. gloria, maybe we will talk in a minute. jim acosta, more questions ath

in the general election, it is different. in the general election, you don't have to be any one ideological thing in order to win over the country. but you have to not be a liar. here's how else mitt romney is like an etch a sketch. it is not just speaking french, it is not just outsourcing jobs to china, it is not just fudging his conservatism, it's fudging everything, all the time. and this is hard to talk about in the day-to-day news context, because there are such low expectations for politicians to be truthful, and the word "lie" is underused and overused to the on the where everybody's a little bit touchy about it. to the point that mr. romney lies all the time about all sorts and stuff and doesn't care when he gets caught is maybe the single most notable thing about his campaign. it started in his very first speech, his kickoff announcement speech this year, he lied. >> when he took office, the economy was in recession, and he made it worse. >> that's a lie. that is a lie. oh, mr. romney claims, others say the response

the problem is the dogs the dogs really like is nothing in the general election. the general election dogs run away from that. so romney, the technocrat fixer guy has surrounded himself with this kind of salesmanship is authentic appearing anyway and he's not connecting with the part of the republican party it's hard for a go like that to connect to. >> charlie, let me -- >> rose: yes. >> no. i want to just, i agree with what mike and jean said earlier. he's caught in a squeeze right now. he's not solidified that base. self style conservative, they all have greater skepticism about governor romney. he can't ignore them. at the same time he really has just, he's gone downhill and appeal to independence and to try to do both at the same time is even a two-stistep that mitt romney can't perform. and much less reach out to cutting some of that obama strike. there was a poll awe lung latinos that showed barack obama beating mitt romney 17-14. that affects a number of states if that's not changed. >> i think, you know, i think this is a great conversation but i think tha

amount of money out there, and a lot of it is poured into the primary instead of going into the general electionve the money, they'll be able to spend it in the general elikz. but romney has a ridiculously high burn rate. i interviewed gingrich this morning. he doesn't see santorum's prolonged viability. what if romney does win ohio and tennessee? then suddenly, gingrich remains in second place in the delegate count. he thinks he's going to rebound. and his staff said santorum had a best shot at romney in michigan and fell short of it, and they see that rebounding in the non-romney candidates, which to james' point, drags it out. >> to mary's point, he has to energize conservative more, do you believe this is by doing that, by trying to appeal to conservatives, someone said paul begala said he was moving to the right throughout the primary and caucus process. is he alienating independent voters he's going to need in the general election? >> he's not doing well with independents at all, mary and eric are right. you're not going to get the republican nomination without stimulating the conservative

i guarantee you will see this in the general election. it is fodder for fund raising, radio ads, tv ads over and over and over. he switched so many times on these various issues >> moral character. >> moral character. >> absolutely. >> we saw in the exit polls, illinois, losing 3 to 1 for santorum who say moral character is the most important. >> going into louisiana where santorum is going to try again and i think he will appeal to the conservative, particularly the more religious voters and so he will get a little bit of bump and we'll see what happens in wisconsin. point being this adds to the narrative romney cannot seal the deal. >> last word to you, we look at low voter turnout in illinois and not being able to seal the deal, 24% of voters coming out and 70 year low. >> i have likened mitt romney to the ed haas kill of the race. he is the guy your mother really likes but doesn't know i am had like you do. he may come in looking really good, but you know better. >> they'll try. >> excuse me, thank you so much, and try to shake up that

the distance. no democrat should be crowing. it's going to be a tough general election. the country is hurting. ere is a lot of frustration out there. so it will be a tough general election. but so far, at least our president's talking about the right things. they are talking about the wrong things. >> yeah. i think the president has his mojo back. >> i hope so. >> i think it is good for our party. it's great to hear your voice. great to see you. thank you for joining us inside the war room. >> great to have you. >> great to be here. stick around, everybody because we have so much more coming up. you are not going to want to miss it. right here in the war room. >>> as we have been talking about, ohio is perhaps the key state in the upcoming presidential election obviously in the primaries, certainly in the general. after a rough patch, manufacturing is beginning to show signs of life again in ohio. and it accounts for a quarter of job growth in the buckeye state over the last two years. companies are starting to relocate from mexico and asia a whole variety of technological advances on factory f

the independent voters in a primary. these are generally republican-leaning independents. they don't reflect the pool who will be there in a general electionomney has consistently led in almost every state among republican voters only, not doing quite as well among the independents or the democrats, but very safe among the republicans. that has a big advantage to him going forward. and what we are seeing, more than anything else is a reflection of a good campaign. republican conservatives are struggling to embrace mitt romney. many of them don't want to. but have you to sort of admire the tactical skill, when they needed a win in florida, the romney campaign figured out a way to do it. when rick santorum had his big night and won 3 states, then romney wound a way to win the c-pac straw poll and the maine caucus. he found a way to win in michigan and ohio. this is a campaign that knows how to use its resources. it's a really effective campaign. >> it could be an asset in the general election. he is becoming known as the closer [laughter] , we will check back with you later on. >> jamie: glad he's staying with us. fresh off a resounding win

the hoops of the primaries which you know where it's all right wing wacky doodles but for the general election that sounds like the kind of the kind of talk that really would work and as a follow up if jeb bush is no longer a conservative what does he. yeah you know he amended that later tom and he said i still am a conservative but i think he's he did that deliberately he's he's trying to go for a general election appeal and i think the bush family game plan the game plan of the people who back them and as you know in my book family of secrets i'm very interested in the sort of known history of the people who back this family and why they back them and the long term efforts they have to maintain power i think what's going on here is they've got a two part play one is it's jeb against obama and if that doesn't work out which it may not then it's two thousand and sixteen and you know people are tired of the democrats now obama served out his term and it swings back to the republicans and then jeb is of supremely well positioned particularly if he takes a run first because it seems like one of t

this is the 2008 general election. the president and the red john mccain. >> this should make democrats nervous. because if romney is doing well in cities and suburbs. if santorum is running around saying romney is a crazy moderate, it would be harder for the president to say romney is a crazy conservative. >> i want to thank you all for joining us on election night here in the war room where we are relaxing and talking politics and budgets. all right. thanks for joining us. we'll see you all back here tomorrow night. ♪

i'm talking about the general election. this is an issue rick santorum has got to prove -- >> how does he do that with the women voters? women ushlgly vote in these national elections than men. >> i think rick santorum has a problem because of the issue of contraception even though he's kind of back tracked a bit on that. i think mitt romney would have an easier time turning around a gender gap which is now a gender gulch. he does well with married women and with suburban republican women. so i think mitt romney would have a much easier time. >> it would help governor romney is there was public polling that showed romney competitive against obama and santorum tanking against obama. the problem for romney is the polls don't show that right now. president obama has come down a bit in all the polls. forget the republican candidates, just because of questions about the economy. he has come down some. santorum and romney equal in the national polls flight. romney has to get back to the electability. >> if you look at all the poll

general elections? >> absolutely. you have to look at the best general election candidate. very much there you have him winning tea party voters, people without college degrees. people earning less than $100,000 a year. the grass roots, populous down skill coalition in a big swing state with rick santorum. mitt romney has not made end routes. he's not making end roads into what is the core of the republican coalition. and as mark said, at the time in 2008 when barack obama stashted to say the math is on our side, they were looking at a series of contests they were going to win. rick santorum has the call der on his side for the next few weeks. >> because of as you said and mark said, mississippi, alabama you then have a situation where it's possible. not today. it's possible but then a one-on-one race is a different kettle of fish where the conservative vote has been split. >> you now have santorum people doing the gingrich what gingrich was doing to santorum when santorum was winning more races. gingrich has more delegates then rick santorum. he's not getting out of the rac

if i do, i'll be dead for the general election. i'm going to keep that in mind here. i think that's one of the reasons you can't close the sale but it's also one of the reasons everyone realizes he's the most electable republican in the field. >> true enough. the issue seems to me the speech when he won michigan really told that story. a lot of expectation maybe just in the press he would take a whack at santorum and make the case i'm the only guy that can get the nomination. didn't do that kept his sights focused on obama and made it clear he wants to run as a fiscal conservative and not cultural conservative. >> that's his strength. you go to your strength when you run one of these campaigns. the independents will flop around on this. they are not happy with the president. they don't approve of the job the president has done. in fact, all of this talk about how the president has come back if you look at the latest job approval numbers, latest gallop numbers were 45 approve, 50 disapprove. he's still in that danger territory well below the job approval numbers of clin