now, what has egypt agreed with on the imf and what are the details? are looking -- you are looking at? imf said that there are many ways to improve the punch body of the foreign exchange market and easing, going for maybe a possible devaluation and moving the exchange rate. other key goals are reducing public debt, the budget deficit, trying to get growth and momentum. and and portly, restored the confidence -- restore the confidence of foreign investors that they can put cash into by ands and stocks large. the deal was reached on thursday and the imf mission chief says he expects the board to consider it within a matter of weeks. some of the finer details we are looking at is basically not egypt must rise -- raise additional financing. that is before they go to the board. the imf said this will be between $5 million-$6 million. yousef: this could help the economic issues? >> it gives them momentum. egypt has had several problems since 2011, but major among them is perhaps the lack of trust him of the confidence that investors have -- trust, confidence

you mentioned the imf warned about high risk credit in china. e they been saying about this? yes, debt in all its forms and china on the top of the agenda for so many people here, whether analysts come investors, or policymakers. the imf was warning about this this 2.9 trillion in debt. if there areng defaults on these, there is greater risk of a liquidity shock than if there was a , therate loan default imf's and corporate default can be unwound and manage easily more so than the shadow credit product. there is a warning from the imf. 11% of these product yields to 14% compared to 3% to 4% on bonds. after those data points on retail sales, factory output, and fixed asset investment, all missed. so that is the basis on context of the comments from the pboc. >> thank you so much. let's get to first word news with paul allen in sydney. the uk's with draw from the european union could be delayed until 2019 as new ministries for the transition may not be ready to start talks as early as expected. saysunday times departments are still recruiting staff

the imf did say they are confident china will rise to the challenge.e: what about these shadow credit products? >> these are high yield, high risk. aboutave a yield of 11-14%. the return is high, but the risk is as well. the imf is worried defaults on these could lead to big liquidity shocks in the system. were --four japan, they four japan, they were operating on some unconventional policies. called an income policy. a lot of economists are not really a fan of this. problem. a different deflation at the moment, they need wages to rise. a lot of analysts saying this is not going to work. one of the people in charge of the policy for the white house back in the 1970's, he is a senior fellow at the brookings institution and says there is no way a company will take on more cost and push wages higher. it is unlikely to work. the imf's answer to helicopter money. yvonne: qs so much. -- thank you so much. we will look at what went wrong. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: indonesia is considering setting up tax havens. proposals for last week's announcement that r

the imf want japan to resurrect their radical strategy once , andyed by u.s. at foray it is not the overall economy, but rather than trying to contain wage pressures and prices, they want to have tax breaks and penalties to have companies push up wages and push up inflation. a lot of people saying this will not work. companies will not want to take on more costs. rishaad: thank you very much. breaking news, police responding to reports of shots fired at jfk airport in new york. there is a shooting happening in terminal eight. a local news station saying all of this without giving us an idea of where they got the information. thece are if iq waiting area while they search for a suspect. they do not have a suspect at this point, and we have no injuries reported thus far. the nypd did say sunday night that they could not confirm whether shots were actually fired. detailse very sketchy coming through from jfk airport in new york. check on some other stories. the boe could deliver another cut this year, according to a bloomberg survey which predicted may act by brin

as saudi arabia's economy struggles, there are words of comfort from the imf. ef: the top stories. halturge came to an abrupt in u.s. trading as better-than-expected jobs numbers gave the dollar a boost. it has been a volatile past few days from -- for oil. closed belowl -- $40 a barrel on tuesday. the pboc foreign-exchange trillion for3.2 july working a drop of just over the previous month. line's data is more in with estimates. gameszers at the olympic have apologized to fans stuck in massive queues on the events opening weekend. thousands of beach volleyball supporters stood in lines of up to two kilometers while fans were left waiting in temperatures of 30 degrees celsius. the opening ceremony, a shortage of security scanners meant weights over an hour -- waits over an hour. expects the saudi budget deficit to narrow to just 10% of gdp in 2017. a fiscal adjustment is underway. what is the significance of this? if you remember, not two years ago, the imf said that could exhaust its entire financial assets within five years. that had a very negative impact on

policymakers at the imf missed the forest for the trees. aslund iss scathing.ussion, not only about the imf, but what the role is of institutions. steve: you have the imf bailing out countries in europe that have been considered part of the developed club up until a few years ago, so it is a matter of, are we going to bailout every country in the world? at what point is it going to get back to being more limited. tom: the idea of the imf treating those developed europe countries totally different than the broader third world conglomerate. francine: the problem is that hindsight is always a great thing. hindsight makes it so much easier, and then you look at the systemic risk and whether there is something that would have for the euro to fall apart. now there is investigations about the imf and the treatment of greece, the way they botched to job in their analysis. but overall, they could have just ignored it. steve: that is true. the question was, who was going to be responsible for that situation? itselfotal to be europe doing the bailing out, or was the imf g

that was the purpose of the imf, to provide world liquidity. but i don't think they serve a useful purpose anymore, which is why i'm a little more hopeful. things that don't work eventually die. >> i would say on the point -- i also worked worked in detroit as a young man, just by the way. my perspective is i worked at ford motor company and now we have many better automobiles and trucks and what have you because of global competition. and the system that was built on protectionism of the big three collapsed. that's what you see is the disaster of detroit. can we maybe go to david kreuzer for just a second? i'm sure we have questions from the audience. >> thank you very much. first, i highly recommend steve's book. they nailed the energy problem right on the head. it is that we have cronyism and hysteria driving our energy policy. the hysteria is that we are heading to a climate catastrophe, which the data trends simply do not show. the data from the obama administration's own national oceanicric -- national atmospheric association. the first po

the imf says it expects the deal to be finalized in the coming weeks. donald trump has won some unlikely support over his claims about president obama. the head of the hezbollah says trump is correct that the president created the terrorist group. the uk's withdrawal from the european union could be delayed until late 2019 as new ministries for the transition may not be ready to start talks as early as expected. departments are still recruiting staff making it unlikely article 50 will be a vote until next -- next year. day, thiss 24 hours a is bloomberg. yousef: gulf stocks have had a bumper start to the week, tracking gains and oil. -- tracking gains in oil. should we expect more? out, a lot ofted .his tied to the oil rally that always feeds and positively to our markets -- always feeds in positively into our markets. we have a global bullishness across stoxx. the three main u.s. stock markets posting records in a week. that is the first time that has happened in 16 years. the emerging markets index is at the highest in more than a year. all this feedi

yousef: you mentioned the imf. ctor who is the saudi arabia and mission chief, he says he was very happy with the progress being made in terms of the fiscal adjustment. the question becomes -- when does fiscal adjustment become too much in a low oil price environment that you cut into economic growth and you put that in jeopardy? john: absolutely. in a low growth economy, if you taxes, indirect or direct, we know that there is a threshold. after that, you are going to be creating unnecessary obstacles for the private sector. remember, the private sector is being asked to contribute the bulk of these investments. if they come to quickly him a for instance if the tax, instead of 5% becomes 15 percent in one year, 2018, that will be a definite problem for the region, for the economy. remember, in times of low taxation often, is not the best recipe especially for the private sector. you are absolutely right. yousef: where is the opportunity here for anyone looking to put money to work in the kingdom? john: the opportuni

the imf says in the annual report on japan it welcomes the success of shinzo abe's policies but they note growth nevertheless remains subdued and deflation persists. they want to see monetary policy options are limited. imf officials say japan now needs what they call a comprehensive coordinated upgrade of its economic policies. they're recommending stronger incentives for companies to raise wages. they're also pushing for labor market reforms including equal pay for equal work. and they point to the need for restoring japan's fiscal health. they say it needs to gradually raise the consumption tax rate. at least to 15% with increases from 0.5% to 1% every year while holding down social security costs. >>> checking the markets. wti crude futures encouraged yen buying by risk adverse investors. the dollar dipped below the 101 yen level for the first time in about three weeks. following this move, officials from the japanese government and bank of japan agreed to work more closely to try to maintain market stability. tokyo's nikkei average continued their declines for a second day. our b

the imf agreement is only one part of the story. we need more.riggerreements might some positive news for the country. topt might come back international markets to raise money. there's a planned eurozone issuance of $3 billion and other international institutions, the world bank, but i think it's too early at this stage. don't forget there are also some negative impacts with the devaluation. it will trigger a lot of inflation in the country. 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. you might have some social discontent in the country and the government will have to deal with that. rishaad: what about economic policy, that has to be key here. egypt need to do to change its mode of growth? is coming in with good reforms related to the introduction of new taxes and at the same time they want to subsidize -- cut subsidies related to energy and food staples. the president has already done the first move two years ago but more is required. don't forget the budget deficit is roughly equivalent of 12% of the gdp, which is a very high figure.

as egypt continues to negotiate with the imf, how does it find a way out of what appears to be a growingrisis? right, egypt doesn't have the luxury to wait any longer. they're under pressure as the local currency is trading with a discount on the black market. official rate. as you have mentioned, the foreign reserves have reached five point billion -- $5 billion in july which means the total import is now below the critical level. tourists are a key provider of hard currency. they are still avoiding the country and they might lose $4 billion of tourist revenues this year. >> that may be the case, but if you look at egyptian equities they arehey perform, still the leading index in the middle east. how do you reconcile that perhaps there's a view that egypt is on the cusp of a turnaround, if they do come to an agreement with the imf? can you buy into that view? >> we have seen a lot of local investors taking some positions recently, but the figure you mentioned is in local currency. if you look in dollars, it would not look as good as you have mentioned. we know that some sectors might be

they're going to join the imf basket, in just under a couple of month's time. this is the share of global, beginning to dissipate, do you think the hot flow of money in, capital flow out, and that has been the overriding concern for china. is that stymied at the moment? vincent: it was a major concern in december and january, we had outflows at about $100 billion a month. that has continued since that, but at a much slower pace. and clearly, it is on the radar of the markets. so, it is not a major concern, right now. but eventually, you have the underlying problem, that binge that we had in china, too much debt will start to hurt. and the government right now is trying to basically cover those risks, but there is a limit to that strategy. and i think both on the balance of payments side, but also in terms of the reform of the economy, what we see deteriorate is a bit of a step back. somehow, the concerns about the currency, but at a cost of probably putting back a little bit in terms of the economic reform, and the transition to an economy driven by contention a

i think for us, it will be trouble, and for the imf and the world banks to accept that kind of reports truth for us is -- it further reinforces the fact that we are truly on our own, and it further puts a dent not only into our hopes for a better zimbabwe but into the hopes of every other nation around the world. so our hope is that they may start to really see the story for what it is on the ground and treat this government the way it needs to be treated. they come to us and they say to us you are wanted for -- you are western funded for questioning them. and they are the first ones to come and ask for money. as an ordinary citizen, it confuses me. it confuses me. i hope i answered this question correctly, but my point is the imf and the world bank should no longer turn a blind eye. they lose credibility, and they lose our support as zimbabwe citizens. this government can no longer have people hide. it is not the age for people to allow more and more life to be lost. we are longing for people that have got a different view, that can stand up and say, "this is unjust, it is not right,

the world bank. we will talk about imf. want to see return from the basics and that was, fability -- by in fact, be imposed when they approve it had reform package at the end of last year. we want to see that sort of approach of rules base policy making and advise followed through next year in the next administration. we don't want to have imf bureaucrats with a wink in a nod saying if you break these rules we will be there to break you out. the imf should not be the first responder. finally lengthy set of introductions, socialist, environmentalists, cultural cronism expanded through the obama years. next president should cut off the food supplies to all the groupings. at the end of the day what this comes down to is rent seeking, powerful seeking carve-outs so what we say and is cut the rent off, cut off the partnerships, end corporate welfare, which is another essay that my colleague bill will talk about. bill, i think it's time for you to take over, thank you. >> excellent. thanks. greetings, welcome. in terms of economic

i think the forecast by the imf is 1.2%. we think slower still. dubai economy is growing faster. there's definitely a gross divergence. i think there is impatience inngst investors to change saudi arabia and now that the transformational plan has been announced, i think investors want to see the start of action and development on that land. see saudi banks being particularly vulnerable right now? we discussed this last week with decision-makers, and again, based on the data you are seeing and we are all seeing, is there reason to be concerned? arabia monetary agency would not be able to provide the kind of liquidity measures to ease those constraints? tarek: i think concern is a stronger word than i would use. if you look at the loan to deposit ratios, they have been trending up fairly sharply in last 12 months. saudi arabia has become a large net borrower. so you see the private sector in is having difficulty raising capital, and the capital markets, frankly, have not developed enough to allow them to find alternative sources of capital. there is

that is four times as much as what egypt would have gotten already through the imf. they did put out a statement saying they were -- there were urgent problems. what can cairo do to ensure social stability. >> that is the balancing act the government faces. you've got some tough reforms including cutting subsidies and the people who will benefit ostensibly the most are the poorest segment of the society which we are looking about 30 or 40% of the population living below the poverty line. it is a balancing act between being able to raise fuel prices and at the same time not doing it in such a way that is going to trigger the unrest government can't afford to see on the street. a us fromriq else cairo. our thanks. the pokemon go craze may be losing some steam but some companies are still catching him big. we will tell you about them next. vonnie: live from london, i am nejra cehic. counting down to the european close, we are just five minutes away. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. alibaba posted quarterly sales 59% eat

central bank grapples with an imminent decision about a diwali way she the ongoing negotiations with the imf. this is the differential. this is the spread between the 12-month forward on the egyptian pound and the egyptian spot. you can see it is widening. i highlighted for you the previous devaluation and a sharp move that came as a result. what will happen from this point onwards? we will find out. let me switch across to this watching, andam that is clearly not happening, but it is a gulf stocks chart that shows it is tracking gains in emerging markets, and not just that -- it's also risen substantially, and the 50-day moving average has crossed the 100-day moving average. potentially more gains going forward. rish: let's take a look at what is going on market-wise. hong kong, japan, we also had the indian market come on stream 20 minutes ago/ asian equities, seeing this climb near one-year highs. all of this, being given a little bit of a tailwind by the strong u.s. jobs data, burnishing economic sentiment in the u.s. the middle east, two hours away from the open of emirates markets. whe

so, i think -- i hope i answered this question correctly, but my point is the imf and the world bank should no longer turn a blind eye. they lose credibility, and they lose our support as zimbabwe citizens. each time they do that. this government can no longer have people hide. it is not the age for people to allow more and more life to be lost. we are longing for people that have got a different view, that can stand up and say, "this is unjust, it is not right, it won't be tolerated, and we are not going to be hoodwinked into , you know, towing the line." i hope i have answered that. [applause] pastor mawarire: i think the other one is what we doing about -- a wonderful question. and thank you so much. good to see you. chloe: we are asking about what will happen to make the next elections free and what hope is there of a change of government? pastor mawarire: the one thing we have found is that the rigging machinery in zimbabwe is difficult for any citizen to go and physically dismantle. i mean, like you've said, we have had elections done over the years, we have had monitors come i

priorities like the imf's ukraine program and the response to the ebola crisis.ith the approval of imf would've reform legislation by congress last the summer, we quickly restored u.s. political capital for future challenges that lie ahead. close working relationships also allow for rapid and clear communication and action in challenging times. particularly when events or issues can be difficult to understanunderstan d and predict a moment of trouble. this was the case in the wake of the recent u.s. brexit referendum. regulatory and policy collaboration by finance ministers and central bank governors in the lead up to the was effective and helped settle , nervous global markets. in the days following the referendum the treasury team , worked closely with our international counterparts again drawing on strong relationships of mutual trust. so when volatile currency movements could have prompted uncoordinated responses, coordination among g20 counterparts helped to calm financial markets. of thisfits coordination are not limited to economic and financial shocks. we

we will have all the details from egypt and the imminent imf negotiations. bloomberg. ♪ yousef: still with us is the managing director of our come capital. thank you very much for sticking around. the thing that you said earlier was you made a comment saying that the real story is yet to come when it comes to saudi arabia. this is a long ways away. as you see that story happening. what do you look at and what can you trade as we see these plans coming to fruition? avoiderally we prefer to making these kinds of calls. if you look at the saudi market there are few listed elements that are dependent directly on oil. so that is important in terms of treating them with caution. we don't believe it is easier to call the oil price anyone else you have to look at the rest of the market and see how that is affected. whatever form the reforms take clearly that is to be pushed more to the private sector than they are right now. that is where the interesting opportunities are. we go one level deeper than that and we say being specific to there are changes in how the gove

>> the imf has repeatedly pointed to this issue that global community should focus on. e encouraged attention on this challenging issue. our -- having lived through the 1990s into attempt to put a form of carbon pricing -- >> like three -- it was small and became a metaphor for things that were difficult to do. doesn't mean conversation should end but an idea that needs to be continually u pursued. >> okay do we have time for another question or two. gentleman up here in the aisle. >> nick can you speak at all to issues at the g20 on cybercrime? >> cybercrime. a woman here over please. >> thank thank mindy there's con quarters that are are not happy about the t.p.p. about provision for tribunal for investors harmed by various legislation. i wonder if you comment about that because that's a focus in the union have been taking. >> within cyber, the issue of sign cybercrime and exposure is something that is on every leader. i met yesterday with a group of senior financial industry executives. you couldn't have assembled a group like that ten years to have an intelligent dis

i think for us, it will be trouble, and for the imf and the world banks to accept that kind of report as truth for us reinforces ther fact that we are truly on our own, and it further puts a dent not only into our hopes for a better zimbabwe but into the hopes of every other nation around the world. so our hope is that they may start to really see the story for what it is on the ground and treat this government the way it needs to be treated. come to us and they say to us you are wanted for questioning, and they are the first ones to, and ask for money. as an ordinary citizen, it confuses me. it confuses me. questionanswered this correctly, but my point is the imf and the world bank should no longer turn a blind eye. credibility, and they lose our support as zimbabwe citizens. this government can no longer have people hide. it is not the age for people to allow more and more life to be lost. we are longing for people that have got a different view, that can stand up and say, "this is unjust, it is not right, it won't be

the imf has reached an agreement to land $12 billion to cairo over the n next three e years.ims at anand is at -- egyptian reform program targeted at restoring growth, creating jobs, and bringing down government that. a strong country with great potential, but it has problems that need to be fixed. reporter: among these challenges are runaway population growth coupled with food security issues. there have also been years of high inflation, falling tourism, and nervous investors. growing criticism over the handling of the economy. analysts expect the government to now devalue local currency and introduce flexible exchange rates in a bid to attract foreign investment. >> because they are cutting investment -- interest rates, it is easy for the government to invest internationally. also by doing so, it would help othere confidence amongst global investors that things are changing in egypt, and hopefully provide confidence so that more people will invest in egypt. reporter: the central bank devalued the local currency in march by more than 20%, but -- ed work, but lot of signs of

the imf was not like the current imf. it was to keep the currency exchange and goal standard going and give very short term license to float trade. when you send out something before the money comes back to finance the float, they would give very short, with no conditions, loans to countries. the world bank everyone knows for these mammoth bad for the environment projects was actually set up to reconstruct europe and japan after the bombings of world war ii. it was supposed to go away. the gatt, agreement on tariffs and trades it was supposed to set up multilateral rules, most basics ones, most-favored nation, sometimes called mfn. that means any status you give to one trade partner, you have to give to everyone in the same agreement. that teams fair. national treatment on non-discrimination. that means you can't treat a product differently for regulation, taxes according to where it is actually produced. so if you have the three pesticides prepare rule on domestic farmers, then imports have to have same treatment. you can

fort and the imf and talks a bailout. will it be enough to revive the economy? we will have the details for you. this is bloomberg. >> 30 minutes before trading sessions kick off after the this is theand second trading day of the week and we are seeing weakness across the asia-pacific. top stories on the bloomberg to $2.5and we're up billion. $3.6 billion. short of the estimates. and they willwer resume trading in under half an hour. areasia-pacific stocks concerned with global growth. with the fiscal stimulus package failing to fire up investors, the yield is strengthening to 100 territory. declines halted the ahead of inventories. >> the turkish president has defended of his handling of a failed to. he says markets will not be hampered by the state of emergency civil servants were removed. i am rishaad salamat. here.is 5:30 good morning to you. let's talk about the banking sector. we are getting numbers from the french bank and the second is upr net profit numbers stable.ooks pretty the focus is on the french banking story and with the low interest rates are d

the imf does it more than a wto. you follow the whole set of formulas. 70%. per capita income growth until 2000 -- 2001. positive growth rates are 32%. second. all structurally adjusted growth rate is -23%. basically africa has lost wealth following this model. what the data shows is that no country has developed under the current rules that are being imposed by the wto and the imf on developing countries. the base ofat why the movement is in developing countries is because they have been lifting -- living with the most terrific results for the past 30 years. candidate bernie sanders has been an opponent of modern trade deals. shortly before the official start of his campaign he took to the senate floor to speak out against the transpacific partnership or you can find entire speech by going to c-span.org and searching the video library. >> mr. president, was very important. but he showed the headquarters of nike to tout the benefits of the tpp. nike does not employ a single manufacturing worker who makes shoes in the united states of america area not one work

the markets have recovered from the shock of brexit the former imf deputy managing director says thatof trade and globalization may threaten growth. pessimistic about the turnaround in trade. john: trade has turned into a drag from a boost. with the problems looking forward, implied by brexit and the need for the united kingdom to renegotiate all these trade deals. the opposition from the presidential candidates of both parties in the united states to the transpacific partnership. the likely delay in the agreement between the united and europe agreement. it is hard to be optimistic about trade turning around. the benchmarks of the growth in the most recent decade. anna: you talked about the u.s. election. is there a bit of market underpricing about the risk we could see with the potential victory for the republican candidate, donald trump. we see him talking about withdrawing from the world trade organization. donald trump was saying that he will not defend nato allies. he is denouncing trade deals. using markets of not price to this all in yet us to mark john: those kinds of statemen

their economy base is still superior and above average, according to the numbers published by the imfhold that thought. we will get into the saudi liquidity challenges shortly. you are staying with us. let's cross over to haidi. haidi: a quick look at the state of play in markets. mumbai trading for about 20 minutes. up .25%. stocks are japanese stocks holding up well. 7.71% is the top side. it has studied in the day's session. investors a lookingor any reaction from the central bank in terms of talking down the yen. let's take a look at what we are seeing elsewhere around the region. we are seeing a steady rally in this session today. your part of to the world, yousef. dubai looking like this in terms of the close yesterday, down .5%. abu dhabi, .4%. qatar, pretty solid gain of over 2%. heading over to the saudi arabia, looking like this, off half a percent in yesterday's's session. oil shares down .6%. getting to first word headlines from around the world, here is juliette. ischina's largest bank giving a billion dollar loan to a telecommunications company in addition to saudi elect

scarlet: the imf is in town to help advise. joe: no help from the copper decline. is an interesting note from ubs that argues that there is not a fundamental recovery in emerging markets, and the rally is part of the yield chase. here is a chart i made. the white line is the ratio of of msci to msci world. things go back-and-forth. it does speak to this idea that perhaps some of this emerging markets rally might not be about the improving economic more abouts, but easier conditions and people are reaching for risk. scarlet: liquidity is certainly helping. i have target same-store sales number. the you are thinking about u.s. consumer, which is everything behind u.s. growth, and it does not look good as far as target is concerned. their first quarterly same-store sales drop since 2014. it has been a weakening picture as far same-store sales decelerating growth since the peak in 2015. now they are down to negative and the stock price has come down. scarlet: it's a pretty sudden drop. ak day forall a we sales numbers. scarlet: coming up, cornerstone macro joining us w

the currency is about to join the basket of the imf. their share of global trade is dropped in and that has that is pretty much the shape of it. we'll be talking about your favorite subject. rishaad: let's check in on the first world headlines. roz: valiant pharmaceuticals is said to be under criminal investigation for allegedly defrauding insurance. federal prosecutors are examining whether dalliance and their relationships. in a statement to the embattled drugmaker says it is cooperating with the new york-based investigation. inpreviously disclosed october. netflix is seeing another record year of tv production. that is bad for business. netflix alone will make 71 original script that shows next year. the 500 series will be made in 2017. that is a 20% rise over last year. apple is said to be preparing the first significant one in more than three years. they are not expected to debut on september 7. that is the day they represent the new iphone. it is surging in hong kong after reporting its first profit in four years. shares are now ga

we've been thinking about the imf meetings coming up in october. let's wander to the bloomberg right now. this is the state of american confidence as shary elven greets those assembled in wyoming. the yellow line is the average of the bloomberg consumer comfort index. i love the simple. the bloomberg consumer comfort index, the high-frequency weekly index. the gloom is the red line. there we are with the average. the diffusion is the 50 mark. janet yellen would probably like that to be a little higher. but it is a good recovery. not a great recovery, but a good recovery in american confidence. francine: we will take it. this is what i wanted to show you. i basically did the spread between the two-year note and the 30-year treasury notes. the 30-year treasury notes are the cheapest relative to bonds into the start of 2008. the yield on the shorter-term maturity is more sensitive to the outlook from monetary policy. i decided to do that instead of expectations or odds of a fan move which is now 54% for the year. for more on all this, the perspective f

all in anticipation of the added touan to be the basket at the imf. let's pull up this chart. onshore and offshore -- scarlet: it is the spread between the offshore and onshore yuan. that the rate is becoming much more fundamentally solid. joe: betty liu. on "bloombergher daybreak asia." scarlet: what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: don't miss this. alibaba earnings tomorrow. at: initial jobless claims ?c+sv >> i am donnie deutsch. mark: with all due respect to donald trump, next time you might want to put the safety on. ♪ mark: on the show tonight, break thatads, polls, and hope donny deutsch does not have a breakdown over the election. a brand-new bloomberg politics survey shows hillary clinton beating donald trump, 50% to 44% in a two-way race. the margin drops when the

we are weeks away from the imf basket of currencies. along?progress coming betty: mixed. that is going to be the key and gettingic part is toward a freely traded yuan is going to mean a sharp devaluation of that currency. it's going to mean a rocky situation for the currency markets. but that is what we are looking for. shery: it seems that they are not rocking the boat enough. vonnie: there are trade weighted baskets they are looking at to give us a better sense of what the yuan is doing. what should we be looking at to tell us where the correct level should be? there is the weekly basket index published why the foreign exchange system that gives a sense of what the yuan is doing versus a basket of currencies. butas been slipping slowly, at a more controlled pace. i think that's a way to look at it. if you look at the recent inflows data at the chinese government bonds market, and data is pretty promising in the short-term with foreign investors putting more money into china in july. think in the short-term, that inflows from the market is getting some support from the cu

the yuan isn't anywhere close to being a fully convertible currency, even as it prepares to enter the imf reserve basket. that is the view of every economist interviewed by bloomberg. the yuan top forecasters said a true free float is as far as a decade away. j.p. morgan chase has produced a list that includes the need to ease capital controls and cut back on intervention. hillary clinton has ripped into donald trump's economic plan, saying it will only benefit the wealthiest. clinton didn't lay out any new policies in her speech, trying instead to undermine trump's claim that his business experience gives him the edge. >> when it comes to creating jobs, i would argue it is not even close. even conservative experts say trend's agenda will pull our economy back into recession. nejra: american swimmer michael phelps has become the most successful olympian ever, surpassing eight 2000-year-old record. his victory in the 200 meter individual medley earned him his 22nd overall and that colton one i had of -- and that puts him when i head of an athlete who won events including shield carrying. g

about the devaluation that is expected to be part of the measures, part of the broader agreement with the imfs of restructuring? what is the extent of the devaluation you are forecasting? i think that the was in the range. [indiscernible] i agree that it is unstructured ground. -- on structured ground. [indiscernible] pressure will be more modest than everyone expected. [indiscernible] we will leave it there for the moment. we apologize to our viewers for some of the audio issues there and the clarity. let's now cross over to angie. what do we have? angie: thanks for that. we are talking about china here, famously difficult to read, no matter the attempts we make here and across the region. but that also includes its stockpiles now. it has been reporting crude in a network of storage sites, but it is not clear what the government plans to do with it. our bloombergby energy reporter from singapore. what do we know, and more importantly what do we not know? , as you know,e the chinese oil buying has become increasingly important to the oil market. oil reserve has become important to chinese oil

>> it is one thing to sign the imf agreement, something else to follow through on other areas. l don't trust him. >>> soviet leader mikhail >>> soviet leader mikhail gorbachev is saying the war in afghanistan is about to come to an end. >> today's announcement seems to be another indication of how anxious the soviets are to get out of afghanistan, out of a war they have not been able to win, out of a war that has proven too costly to continue. >> because of afghanistan, communism was no longer affordable. the idea of promoting your ideology around the world, defending its interests became too expensive. >> white house officials are thrilled at the idea that when the president arrives in moscow for a summit with gorbachev in late may, it appears the soviets will have begun their pullout from afghanistan. ♪ >> ronald reagan built his career saying communism is evil, and the notion that five years after his evil empire speech, ronald reagan lands in moscow and is welcomed and greeted is mind blowing. >> just about like every other american tourist that comes to moscow, president re

it is set to join the imf basket of reserve currencies. options traders are the least bearish on it in almost two years. a gauge of volatility has declined to its lowest level since november. valeant pharmaceuticals says it is cooperating with authorities in new york after the wall street journal reported that the company is under investigation. it said federal prosecutors are examining whether valeant and a mail-order pharmacy hid their relationship. the founder of alpha at's venture capital is to leave the company on friday. he built a silicon valley powerhouse, having created google ventures in 2009. david crane, a veteran of google, will exceed maris. a man who wanted a private audience with donald trump spent three hours scaling the glass facade of trump tower using suction cups. he climbed as high as the 21st floor before officers grabbed him through an open window. police say the climber posted a video on youtube entitled " message to mr. trump," in which he said he had an important issue to discuss. global news 24 hours a day powere

that is what the imf has been next twoing for the years, three years.ven if they did do the right policies, it would take some time. i think we are going to be stuck in this world of slowly grinding higher unemployment. that is going to lead to some changes in the long run politically. i think there's just such a focus on politics, it is not the environment for getting structural reform. caroline: we are just seeing that the south african rand continues to outperform, leading the charge today. we are seeing some recite in terms of the currency, but what about the companies? today we hear that steinhoff is making a $2.4 billion acquisition in the united states, wanting to diversify. is this the way the company is going to be looking now why we've got concerns about unemployment? that is not a new story. last year, there were 45 billion rand of outflows from the country, people investing abroad , deals like steinhoff now coming this morning. i think the real concern is that you are not going to generate domestic growth without domestic companies investing

if you look at with the imf said in its article in july, it said that policy has to be really robust d has to try to make a difference, otherwise there isn't much point. the japanese have been making little changes. something,ants to do he has to do it big. yvonne: big in terms of unconventional >? guest: that is not kuroda's part of the policymaking framework. it needs to be a two-pronged approach. bealso needs to monetary-driven. yvonne: do you see that shift toward fiscal? i was speaking to someone earlier, saying it is not so much a shift -- it is a shift to the government. it does not bolster much confidence. guest: i would agree to some degree. has lost credibility. its negative interest rate move earlier was a disaster. certainly the way in which it vacillated between making a big move and not has not done credibility any good. it is up to the fiscal, micro-side of policymaking to make a difference. yvonne: coming up, the show must go on. minister's prime resumed his siege after a health care issue, but what is behind the stumble? yvonne: you are watching "asia edge." i am yvon

hyperinflation is starting to appear with the imf predicting prices will search nearly 500% this year venezuela will be able to pay the money due this year on its foreign debt. hugo chavez was elected president in 1998 and revolutionized venezuelan politics with fiery anti-u.s. rhetoric. thousands ofzed companies and their assets, reducing their capacity to produce anything but oil. chavez maintained a connection with supporters, frequently poling above 50%, and winning reelection three times. nicholas maduro has struggled for popularity. so critics argue he has thoroughly bungled business in the country that he is not fit to hold office. nor do the parties have a mandate to unwind the shabbos revolution. you can read more about venezuela and other stories on the bloomberg. for moreomberg.com stories. mark: have a look at the stoxx is little changed. it was up .4%, at the highest since may 30. eight day of gains for the ftse 100 here in london. we are at the highest since june 2015. germany, the dax is now positive for the first time in 2016. cac 40 little changed. continuing itsnd de

said because the impact on the economy has been supported by the bank of england, the director of the imf>> leave campaigners said the regime was being used against them. >> i think you will find you cannot keep up that website. >> we will look at our legal advice. >> expect a letter for action. >> moving on -- the trade union -- taking down the website -- >> the leavers stepped up their campaign. dominic cummings, a behind the scenes figure. >> the leave campaign is setting up their analysis. what will you be publishing? >> all sorts of analysis about international trade and how we think this will improve. >> do you not think leaving europe puts a risk on companies like hitachi? >> if remain-ers were keeping the debate on economic gloom, leave campaigners were concentrating on immigration and the huge issue of free movement of labor within the eu area. the arguments were emerging at the pmq's. >> and yet the propaganda sheets sent out maintain that we control our borders. is the sheet untrue? the truth is this -- economic migrants that come to the european union do not have the right to

the yuan isn't anywhere close to being a fully convertible currency, even as it prepares to enter the imf's-- reserve basket in october. that is the view of every economist, strategist, and analyst interviewed by bloomberg. haswhile, j.p. morgan chase produced its still to do list, which includes the need to ease capital controls and cut back on intervention. australia's treasurer has rejected claims that xenophobia and protectionism drove his decision to block the sale of the state owned power grid to chinese bidders. scott morrison says national security was the sole reason for rejecting the bid. the sale could have raised almost 8 billion u.s. dollars. perry clinton has ripped into donald trump's economic plan, saying it will only benefit the wealthiest while increasing the burden on the middle class. >> when it comes to creating jobs, i would argue it's not even close. even conservative experts say trumps agenda will pull our economy back into recession. hong kong's haslinda: richest man, one of the biggest investors in the u.k., has warned that the fallout from britain's decision to le

joining us from the diggers forum, john limitssky, the ing director at imf. great to have you here on the program. go back to those breaking we saw coming out of dudley. he was talking about to not underestimate whether the fed can actually raise rates this year. oryou see a similar view view? share a similar >> well, of course, nbalanced despite the weak second quarter view? >>data. -- do you have some water here. >> yeah. >> okay. here we go. despite the weak second quarter figures, 4.9%.oyment is at growth is expected to be 2%, between 2% and 3%, and the inflation rate towards their 2% target. so under normal circumstances, it would be would be hat they tightening as long as the economy continues to grow. yeah.'s -- >> the dollar has been creeping up, and over the year, yeah, go ahead. >> i just wanted to say -- to s give you a chance catch up and catch your breath. --mr. dudley >> we're going to head to a break and talk more later. we'll give you a chance to a little bred bit. stay with us, we'll come back to you soon. corporate earnings set for another qu

the imf is warning about structural on a. what can you tell me about the state of affairs in the french market? alain: q2, we had 3% growth in trends.th two different it was good, adecco. but mainly due to the strikes and the bad weather conditions. but then, we had a rebound in june. and we see that this growth has continued in july and even at the beginning of, august, so we see a continuation of the modest growth in france. and i would say that a slow recovery in france, foreshore september is a very important month for our industry, more particularly in france, because that is the moment when the companies are coming back from the holidays. they look at the order book, and we will see at the beginning of september if we have more visibility about the end of the year. but at this stage, this slow recovery is continuing. ehaze, the adecco ceo. joining me from zurich. theurn our attention to erdogan, rouseff, and vladimir putin deepening. yousef gamal el-din joins us with the start of the hour. take us inside. yousef: remarka

agree about the worry about it, and the immediate impact is past, but is still a pretty big growth the imf's forecast, it will shave something like almost 1% off british growth. by the way, people forget that it is the fifth-largest economy in the world. reminded my friends it is a huge economy that has a big impact. i think on the monetary issues, there is general agreement that monetary policy -- people criticize where we are in certain countries, negative interest rates, the fed's positions -- but i think there is broad agreement that monetary policy has gone nearly as far as it can in addressing the fundamental growth story, if not completely gone beyond where it should become hostile everyone has agreed on that. then the question is -- should the emphasis be put on more fiscal-based stimulus versus structural reform? that is really the u.s.-germany debate to a large extent. i think that will be the main focus of contention and the difference in the room in the g-20. >> ok, folks, we are coming up against time. anyone has a final question. >>'s questions for heather, cyberly, specificall

the imf saying you need a nixon-era response. that is to intervene and raise wages.hat do you think of that? lena: we need a rebalancing of balance sheet. seeing ins what we're that this is an economy that is harboring short-term growth, which is the reflection of long-term structural headwinds. manus: are you an advocate of helicopter money? what are you an advocate of? you need something radical to get japan growing. we should have started with helicopter money. what qualitative easing has done is that it has helped thely-side without supply-side and household balance sheet. perhaps it is this rejection of balance sheets through higher spending power and real wages growth that has got to take us out. manus: we should have started with helicopter money. these are the trading relationships. china, the united states of america are the top participants in terms of the japanese growth story. in your notese were you say that the 18% rally in the value of the yen against the yuan is one of the real headwinds for this economy. think the yen strength has been a sort of shoc

the imf was it just that if you get an incomes policy going and intervene, tell your producers and exporters"give the lads and lasses a pay raise." would that be radical for you? that is not the third arrow of abenomics, that is communism. >> it is intervening in the marketplace. that is something that they have pledged to do. maybe going into the wage dynamic is the next thing he needs to look at. but the bottom line for us is clearly not working. they need to do a lot more because they have got the mandate to do that. manus: wrap that up together for me. are you bailing on japan? or are you hoping they will do something right? will you allocate to japan? >> for us, the political amemics economic that arc dynamics are there. for us, there are opportunities within the japanese market against this backdrop. manus: i am finishing with this. we have less than one minute here. four of the major banks have been selling to the bank of japan. we are running against the buffers. we are maxed out. maxed out. >> this is why the central bank is is an corporate bonds. they are only using 25% of the stoc

the world bank is said to be doing a bond sale next week, denominated in the imf drawing. 31 notes willise on august in china's interbank market. according to one person for the dispatch will be a three-year security with a face value of 500 million, about $700 million. it would be the first bond issue since the 1980's. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . i am shery ahn. this is bloomberg. anna: thank you very much. let us check in on the life market action. asiante sally has all the information. the oil price of determining factor, also concern really about how hawkish janet yellen will be on friday. driving sentiment in emerging markets certainly. juliette: yes, absolutely. in fact, if we look at the emerging market index it is down by 7/10 of 1% at the moment, the biggest drop in about three weeks. and we are seeing stocks fall for everyone that rises, this is really going to be the market that is most affected, if the fed does move. certainly, this concerned