tom keene joins us with the head of the imf. ou so much and welcome to all of you on bloomberg radio and television worldwide. the most important interview with christine lagarde. meeting after meeting of the international monetary fund, i can honestly say no meeting more interesting this morning over the last 24 hours was controversy with the trump administration. i want to go back to his speech you made in 2013. you quoted the american economist walt whitman, keep your face towards the sunshine and shadows will fall behind you. have you felt that way in the last 24 hours? christine: i would say that is a bit of sunshine in washington and there is no sunshine. let me just address this controversy. for a few years now we have repeatedly said that tax reform was absolutely needed and necessary in the u.s., in particular a corporate tax reform and there is no doubt in my mind and absolutely no that point.out it is necessary. we've call for it and we welcome the decision to actually think about a tax reform that would make taxation

rishaad: recovery and risk, the imf warns the global economy is limited.di: president trump says he will deliver his choice for the new fed chair within a month. we will speak with atlanta's raphael bostic rishaad: .--raphael bostic 9.8% for theensus export picture for china. this is be to god we are expecting a 5.6 percent read in exports in august, looking for a doubling of fat, reflecting early indicators on ther with pmi's official level stronger than expected. on the unofficial level, slightly weaker. that should give us a picture of the global economy. the balances is stronger than five years ago. that is what we have at the moment. looking for that data in the next hour or hour and a half. hopefully. always so surprised when we get those numbers. we are also getting money supply numbers from beijing, the pboc to release those between today and wednesday. looking at ae little risk when it comes to chinese data, but also a breather, u.s. stocks retreating from highs overnight. to one of speaking the key voices from the fed over the next hour. let's lo

the imf addresses some of the issues. script that the imf and world bank wants to be on. ministration is not playing by that script. we saw overnight the article talking about trump how dare the imf three blocks away metal lid tax reform. should the imf do work on tax reform, not only in the united states, but in developed countries? , think aboutmf infrastructure in the u.s.. last night we had a high dinner with lots of long-term capital mentioned it is hard to invest private capital in u.s. infrastructure. participants said when you talk about infrastructure in the u.s., the u.s. becomes socialist . it is public money, they don't want private capital. infrastructure abroad, it has to be private and they want to deploy their own capital. hi from london. do you think markets are too complacent about some of the risk? davide: yes. inrecently published a piece which bloomberg elaborated upon. we are very worried about the centralt half of the banks think that $20 trillion of monday, about $100 billion every month, has volatility in the base of finance. that is treasury, guil

it did come about a week after the imf advice. overnment was to pin -- was to consider slowing down the reforms. the saudi finance minister today said they were slowing down some of the reforms and that they were not feeling in such a huge rush to hit their self-imposed 2019 targets were a balanced budget. it shows they are listening to some of those calls, including those from the imf. ago i remember a while there were concerns about the declining wealth of the kingdom. is their willingness to slow down the pace of these cuts -- is that an indication that they feel they have some space in the market? saudi 2030 vision was considered to be a very ambitious plan and it would take saudi arabia from its current state of economy to one that does not rely on oil income anymore. any step back from some reforms or the pace that was committed to is a significant development. it leads to an inevitable situation where you will have some saudi businesses that will cheer this development but on the other hand, this might lead to some others qu

do you think investors share that optimism from the imf? : investors on wall street do not necessarily need the opinion of the imf to make up their minds if the economy looks brighter or not. in the past couple weeks and months we got some solid economic reports in the united states. in the past week we had the best reading from the industrial sector in about 13 years. the car industry seems to be doing a bit better. at least we got hints on that from the latest car sales over here in the united states. overall the picture does look pretty bright. it did not hurt that the imf also actually hired expectations. the imf also does see some risks , especially when it comes to protectionism. that's a tendency we might be seeing all over the globe, not just from the united states itself. there are also some geopolitical events that could distract overall growth. but the bottom line is we did see another record day here on wall street. where shy not even 200 points for the dow jones to reach 23,000 points for the first time ever. we did not necessar

the imf paper did not mention specific countries. ry of the fund's latest thinking on fiscal policy. but it did come out in washington on the date trump is about to go on the campaign trail to promote his landmark tax reform. clearly, there are people in the administration that side as criticism of the u.s., and they fired back. yvonne: what we have heard from the imf for decades is this white house, washington consensus, how other economies should be running their countries the way the americans have. advocating higher taxes for the rich, is this a change of heart from the imf? ben: it is not the type of policy people associate with the imf. redistributive tax policy is associated with the left, and imf is not popular with the left, to put it mildly. i think the imf thinking on issues has been changing in recent years. be, as people in asia know well, they were strongly opposed the capital controls. -- rode back austerity, based on calculations that turned out to be wrong. we are seeing a change in the imf thinking about a lot of eco

betty: we will be talking about monetary policy around the world. imf risk to recovery. concerns it noting about tightening financial conditions are warning the fed and ecb to move carefully, do quickly.en too kathleen hays has the central bank roundup. kathleen: they did not say it like that. who in the world is talking about raising rates, moving quantitative easing? leading the pack is the federal reserve, the european central bank. , the chiefchard economist said, the fed can move slowly on rates, even with slow unemployment, they do not need to move quickly. let's look at g #btv 189 to see what he is referring to. he is talking about low unemployment, the yellow line. it is down to just over 4%, while wages, average our earnings have plateaued. why move quickly? let's listen to what he said earlier. >> maybe the equilibrium unemployment rate is lower than where we are. it could be that labor force participation could be increased a bit. on the aggressive side of monetary policy. being more relaxed about when we increase interest rates. also endorse

let's talk about the imf. h, it revised upwards of forecast. predictions for global growth, it revised upwards of forecastm predictions for global growth, it revised upwards of forecast. it was quite striking in terms of the economic outlook and specifically the outlook for financial stability. both of those had an assessment in the near term that things are looking good. strengthening economic growth led by developed economies, britain is an exception to that, unfortunately. and improved financial stability short—term because of that improved growth. it is easier for borrowers to keep up with debt payments if the economy is growing. but, there were concerns, you are right, about debt and a numberof other you are right, about debt and a number of other risks that the global economy is facing. on debt and financial issues more widely, it's a continuation of the theme that we've had for several years in the aftermath of the financial crisis. ultralow interest rates and quantitative easing policies, the imf have h

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rishaad: we are looking at the imf, meetings starting off in washington. at they will be saying about growth. this is the 20 gdp country forecast comparison. there come in pink, 6.7% growth rate. 6.5% in 2016. that eclipses all the others. the world and white is expected to expand at a rate of 3.4 percent, u.s. at 2.2%, europe getting growth this year, and 2.1% there and 1.5% for japan. sophie: the imf weighed in on the monetary-based arrays. check this out on the terminal. the monetary base stays where it is, maybe the global economy will be fine. we are waiting to learn more about the fed's targeted balance sheet unwind when it releases the september minutes on wednesday. have concernsso about tightening financial conditions, seen by some as a warning to the fed and ecb to move carefully and slowly. sophie: kathleen hays has a central-bank roundup. what is the latest? >> the imf boosted their growth forecasts, but warned rich nations not to get complacent. there are things that could upset this applecart. one thing basic build is concern over tightening f

the imf forecasts the global economy will be expanded by 3.6%, the fastest since 2010.arlier we asked our washington correspondent how the mood was considering the good projections. carsten: absolutely. the mood is very good, but there was also a certain feeling of wistfulness, because this is the last time the german finance minister is here to meet his colleagues, especially the group of g20. they were among equals in many ways through his authority and experience. he has really shaped the group. and the president of the group this year. i had a talk to speak -- i had a chance to speak with the french finance minister who said that everybody in the meeting was very friendly to him, and that they will miss him. >> the imf has come with a message to this meeting, saying tax the rich, interesting considering in the host country president trump is pushing for less taxes for the rich. carsten: yes, the general outlook of both the imf and the world bank for the world economy are good, but both mrs. lagardere and mr. kim said we cannot be complacent. we have to look at the f

the imf has two concerns about the current situation, china and america.pite growth, there are problems. indeed, there are problems. on the surface, the we have a great outlook. this is from the imf world outlook. this is from the imf world outlook that puts out twice a year. 0n the service, great. regway 6% growth this year. up from last year. but behind that slight rise are some worrying factors, particularly for asian economy. —— 3.6% growth. india got a fall of half a percent less than they predicted a few months ago. they are saying that india is suffering from the effects of the monetisation of the currency exchange the issues that it saw there. the issues of the stealth tax as well that was introduced injuly. —— sales tax. but the outlook for india is still looking pretty robust. china, however, robust growth on the service, a 6.8%. —— surface. they are warning about this expansion in credit, and send the authorities are really go to have to have a handle on it. the us, though, is interesting, because they have an interesting statement about the uni

this is us an affair that concerns spain the imf is not i in a position to make any recommendations. apart from. please resolve the uncertainty. and you can have that full interview out without crowther and christina gals later on here on france. for. no trees may have been trying to stay upbeat about the latest round of breads it talks with the european side is concerned there are still too many sticking points. december's now the new target to assess how much progress has been made and whether they can move on to issues like trade. for now though you can e. remain at odds over key points like citizen's rights and london's financial obligations. so called brexit bill could be as much as sixty billion euros. of uk's reportedly offering closer to twenty. with all that goes with that problem still open e. use chief negotiator says that he's not yet ready to move on to trade talks take the issues in perfect pride console don't we are the good log on this question. which is extremely disturbing for projects of business it will have no clue could pope forty. health don't apply dozens of bu

we have the world bank and imf meetings, there. : let's get to the "first word news," with mark crumpton. isk: president trump criticizing hurricane ravaged puerto rico and says the government cannot keep federal aid there, forever. the president says there is quote, a total lack of accountability and said the island city electric system and infrastructure were quote, it is asked her before the hurricane. of puerto rico is still without power, three weeks after the storm. house speaker paul ryan is lashing out at states like california, new york and new jersey, saying the federal deduction for state and local taxes forces states that have their act together to pay for states that don't. speaking on capitol hill, ryan defended the new tax pros old to eliminate the popular state local taxed adduction. that's adduction is claimed by around 44 million people and cost the government an estimated $1.3 trillion in lost revenue over 10 years. president trump is praising the pakistani government for its help in freeing an american couple hel

yousef: up next, the imf thinks saudi arabia's economic reforms could yield big returns. investors should be positioned on the story coming out of the kingdom. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ yousef: welcome back to the best of "bloomberg markets: middle east." let's turn to saudi arabia. s&p confirmed the kingdoms rating with a stable outlook as it expects saudi employees to consolidate public finances. be growth is expected to broadly flat this year with only a slow pickup after that. the imf said they expect reforms taken by the kingdom to yield a 90 billion -- $90 billion used by 2020. by 2020. >> were talking about gradual increases in petroleum prices, particularly diesel. you would have to raise prices about 175% of international prices. what we are talking about is maybe a gradual adjustment. it is perfectly feasible. much of the benefits from the subsidies go to businesses and corporate, not households. what you can put in place is a safety net, which they are planning to do. the cost is around maybe $9 billion. perfectly feasible. important newser is fiscal adjustment is

china's debt looks concerning and that is why the imf is raising a red flag. fference between china and recent experiences is that china is still growing fairly fast. toing debt and growing at 6% 7% versus having a lot of debt and 1% to 2% makes a big difference. out, growth.ay as long as growth continues, the likelihood of a crisis will remain small. i think the fact that everyone is more worried to date makes a lot of sense. i would not be panicking either, although the crisis could unravel any time. kathleen: how do they get out of this situation where debt is being taken on to keep growth high, then you need the growth to finance the debt. it seems like a cycle that would somehow have to break. how do they step away from this? >> you have to be willing to accept at times slower growth. the chinese government has been for many reasons concerned and upset with an economy that grows at a very high rate. occasionally an economy does not grow at the same rate should not be a concern for the government and need to adapt to new growth rates. it has been difficult

tom: what is so important here is the tone of the imf in an optimistic world. he united kingdom is off their game with a battle over brexit and all that, and there are other serious issues within poor emerging markets. but you also marked down the u.s. because, am i right the imf is doubtful on successful tax reform legislation in the short-term? christine: we actually marked up the u.s. economy compared with our july numbers and marked up a few other countries, including advanced economies. what we hope to see is implementation of the reforms that we have called for for many years, a good solid tax reform. that will be simpler, corporate -- where rates, particularly corporate rates will be lower, a base much more solid and clear. that is what we hope to see and the sooner it goes through, the better. michael: still to come on "bloomberg best," more headlines from a busy week in business, including the latest bad news for uber, and fighting words on a trade from the british mp. straight ahead, another dive into the week's interviews. the tax plan doesn't have mu

for meetings on the imf, all the financers and top economists are here i'll tell you what some of myakeaways are in a moment, but first we'll bring you breaking news out of the nation's capitol. the trump administration says it will stop making critically important payments to health insurers who sell obamacare plans. those payments were projected to $10 billion next year. nbc's tracie potts is here in washington with more does this come as a surprise, tracie >> reporter: it doesn't come as a surprise i can tell you that because we have been investigating what the prices will be for the premiums next year. and already 20 and 30% increases in some areas because the insurance companies were expecting this was coming. president trump has said repeatedly he thinks that it's too much money and that this is not something that the government should be paying so those cost-sharing reductions is what they call them, many people refer to them as extra subsidies, are payments made directly from the government to these insurance companies to compensate them for discounted plans that they are req

the imf puts out a sunny growth forecast. see the sun shining, we also see clouds on the horizon. >> the f alamo see reveals -- at moc -- >> inflation expectations are low. to -- we not trying are trying to get the underlying rate. >> economists consider the conundrum of tax reports. >> growth will pay for part of it, not all of it. >> there is no reason to believe this. >> there are miracles, sometimes productivity growth picks up. >> all straight ahead on bloomberg best. ♪ >> hello and welcome, i'm michael mckee, this is bloomberg best, your review of the most important business news and analysis from around the world. donald's agenda was going to be a big story no matter what, but monday dawned with unexpected clinical fireworks. president trump made an interesting choice over the weekend. he can afford to lose only two republican senators and he decided to pick a fight with one of those senators. he blamed bob corker for the iran deal. he wanted the secretary of state job but did get it. senator corker compared the trump

is the imf worried about it? ca, there are two sides, tending to the books of government but also making sure the economy's growth is robust enough and tax ace broad enough to be able to make sure there will be fiscal sustainability overtime. i think they can have both and what makes sense is a well-designed tax is to be sure, one that will help the middle class and incentivize investment. i think that could be good for america and the world. across whichte growth across many countries at the international monetary fund, with michael mckee with an important conversation with the president of the boston fed, is wage growth dynamic different now across countries because of new technology and a new supply fund? david: we are looking at that. has anof our books important finding what goes beyond what we learned in school, which is we look at how the unemployment rate is the measure of slack, and that will tell you how responsive wages low be. we are learning a new thing, that there was a lot of involuntary part-time u

it tightens into the imf story. here, i think, what the imf story.tives are proposing, thatis the conservatives are proposing, that is difficult because we have an affluent older population so if they propose this, then good luck in the next election. thank you for your company. hello, good morning. the weather is much, much quieter now. it is actually turning quite chilly out there, under the clearer skies. but, for a while on wednesday, we had some quite severe weather in cumbria. heavy cloud, low cloud as well, producing a lot of rain, feeding into the rivers as the water drained down from higher ground. and it was in the highest ground that we had some of the heaviest rain. honister, for example, over 200mm of rain falling in about 2k hours. the rain was quite localised, but heavy for a while on what was a thicker band of cloud, a more active weather front. but, as that swept south eastwards, so the cloud thinned and narrowed, and the front weakened. we're into a bit of a flat ridge, if you like, for today, but this deepening low pressure is wait

let's look at the guardian, they might have an idea from the imf. to tax the wrecks debt help the poor —— tax the rich to help the poor —— tax the rich to help the poor —— tax the rich to help the poor. the shadow labour chancellor has welcomed this. that's a surprise. it is, the idea that even two years a surprise. it is, the idea that even two years ago a surprise. it is, the idea that even two years ago that ed balls would have said i want to be associated with this headline of taxing the rich more was unthinkable. this is how much things have changed in two years. you now have changed in two years. you now have a labour chancellor willing to come out in public and say i think we can win an election saying we wa nt we can win an election saying we want to tax the rich more. they are seeing what they fought the last election on labour was not that radical and only proposing tax rises oi'i radical and only proposing tax rises on the top 5%. it's where the fuel people could achieve that level of income and where people perceive the rich to be. the im

tonext, we go from the imf markets. ving a look and discussing why the banks prefer the equities despite current valuations. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ rishaad: we're back with bloomberg markets, we are in hong kong looking at the latest headlines. general motors is in the fast lane on the growing speculation that it will win on the self driving cars. deutsche bank with a $30 billion business emerging, helping the stock close as a new record every day this week. for years, they have been studying it as investors look at as tesla -- at tesla and uber. and naming a new ceo for dairy queen. he is -- current officer, replacing john who led the company for more than a decade. ishares warren buffett -- it shares warren buffett's liking for -- and they have been in service for 6000 locations worldwide. and netflix raising the price of their most popular u.s. obstruction by 10%, it will be $11. shares surging with an intraday record as the company is attracting subscribers while charging more. it is relatively cheap wh

i have covered the imf for the last, i don't know, ten years.his is the most optimistic i've heard them >> it's interesting that they're so robust about what's happening not just in the u.s. but globally >> they put out this economic forecast they do it every few months. it's been downgrade after downgrade after downgrade after the financial crisis, whether it's uncertainty around fiscal cliffs in the united states, the latest burst of the debt drama over the years concerns about china the collapse in the commodities. we've been through these periods. it's led to a downgrade in growth here they is talking about how we're starting to see investment come off the sidelines, it's not just driven by consumption, giving props to the chinese leadership about controlling and managing their economy we talked a lot more about some of the risks that lie around the corner what she's most worried about. you'll hear that on "squawk on the street." and we talked about janet yellen who could be the next fed chair, what the challenge there will be we talked tax

ken rogoff is former chief economist at the imf always a regular here at the world bank meetings.ou just wrote this work crypto fools gold the price surges to 5,000. you say it will crash? >> i don't know when, but the history of currency tells us the private sector innovates, but the government regulates, then appropriates that's the long run here it happened with coins, happened with paper currency, it will happen here. >> though we have seen some moves on that front. china's cracked down a lot korea started cracking down. yet the price continues to bounce back. there's enough support and interest, it seems like, from not just the private sector but governments like japan friendly towards bitcoin. >> i can't explain what japan is doing, except maybe trying to become the switzerland of the fintech industry, and get money laundering from all over the world going through japan. at the end of the day they can't allow anonymous transactions to dominate the global economy. they can't collect taxes, they can't enforce regulations. it will remain at periphery. you won't easily be able t

the imf warns that level growth is at risk of faltering in coming years. nancial committee says low inflation and geopolitical tensions meant there was no room for complacency. we talked to the senior executive officer at emirates asset management. >> it goes into two sides. on the first hand, they validate what the global markets have done so far. what they have said is we've seen broad-based recovery, seen economies grow. one by one, they have identified the eurozone, most of the emerging markets of having done well. where they highlight concerns for the future is things to look out for. like what you said in your comment, you don't specify any exact thing. if you look at the language, hard to predict fiscal policies, particularly with respect to the u.s. we know that you're going to have tax reform, trade performs in terms of nafta renegotiation and stuff, and we don't know how they will work out. there is a little bit of uncertainty. i think what they are saying is, we are not sure how is going to work out and they may or may not disrupt things. the oth

the ipo. oil prices, opec and more. plus, an exclusive interview with imfarde, what she d ha to say about the global economy, how to get to 3% economic growth in this country and tax reform >> and it should be project neutral. it should not increase the deficit. it should not drive to yet more debt into the future because that's an issue that the u.s. has to deal with it's like having your cake and eating it too. ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs. how am i going to explain this? if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab. schwab, a modern approach to wealth management. i can't wait for her to have that college experience that i had. the classes, the friends, the independence. and since we planned for it, that student debt is the one experience, i'm glad she'll miss when you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. ameriprise christine lagarde laying out her policy agenda ina speech ahead of the imf annual meeting next week talked about the fuel for this market, global growth, and for the first ti

also noting the imf is accommodative of the boj and ecb.eresting, very timely coming from lagarde. especially come of a past the budget resolution. one step closer to some kind of tax reform from congress. that big test will be when the senate continues to stick with the proposal we do see. they are not as keen when it comes to budget deficit. similar to what we're hearing from lagarde. it is surprising come other republicans that are supposed to be deficit hawks have not come out as strongly as one might expect. in the meantime, here in the markets they are sanguine about any showdown on taxes. let's look at how the markets ended up today, giving asia a left on this friday session. the s&p higher by 0.5%. the dow jones up 113 points. 1%. wedaq up by almost have a jobs report tomorrow, it gives you a sense the markets are disregarding the jobs report. normally they would be unchanged ahead of it. i don't think anyone will be looking at those numbers. yvonne: our analysts are calling it more a weather report. we saw momentum coming through o

later, more of the imf view on the global economy. we are live in washington with imf chief economist maurice obstfeld, 10:30 new york time, 3:30 p.m. in london. and a special conversation --richard thaler just won the nobel prize for economics. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from london, i am a mark barton. vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." the dollar is falling over concerns on tax reform. horwitz,s this todd trading.com.ist at we are in a bit of a range, although we have seen plenty of consolidation. todd: i think the dollar bottomed when it hit around 91, on when popped up to 94 friday, and we are seeing a bit of a pullback. we will see more interference from other currencies and the dollar will break out and go higher. totarget would be going back the buck, as they say. vonnie: you say the buck, you mean the euro? to todd: no, i think the dollar will go back to one. we came down from 104. vonnie: that would be a substantial move. what are we seeing with oil? we are seeing a bounce, but it doesn't have mu

at the meetings of the imf and world bank we will have conversations. erday he is in fine spirits. we speak to david lipton at the seventh like our. -- at the 7:00 hour. or international affairs, that was a job that john taylor had a few republican presidents ago. francine: we are looking forward to your second day coverage from the imf/world bank meetings. let's get to the bloomberg business flash news. taylor: in his speech, trump is expected to disavow the nuclear agreement with iran but not abandon it. -- heesident will refuse is expected to ask congress to amend the law. in a statement, he said it is time for the world to join it on demanding that iran and its pursuit of death and destruction . it is now the deadliest week of fires in california's history. hundreds of people are still missing. in the city of santa rosa, almost 3000 homes were destroyed . high winds are keeping firefighters from containing the fires. ireland could be hit by a hurricane on monday. hurricane ophelia is a hurricane -- as a category two get it can .ecome -- category 2 it

leverage levels are creeping up all over as the imf focusing on the risk to financial stability. largest u.s. banks report earnings and revealing a less creditworthy the american consumer. how big of a concern is that for debt markets? we start with a big issue, markets continue to shrug off risk. >> it's really surprising when you look at all the events that have gone on in the market s have become so jaded. they don't react like they used to. >> i don't know about you, but i'm nervous. and it seems like when investors are nervous they are prone to being spooked. and nothing seems to spook the market. >> central banks are keeping the pedal too much on the gas and we are sucking out volatility that is not conducive to long-term growth. >> in this case, i don't think it is a really overwhelming bubble i just think there is a , disaster risk the markets are not taking into account. lisa: lots of existential angst. not a lot of action. during the around the table in new york is michael cloherty., e head of interest rate strategy at ibc capital markets. bonnie wongtrakool, portfolio

shery: that was maurice obstfeld , director of research at the imf. p, we will be talking about the puerto rico financial crisis, and also talk about the biggest headlines. bloomberg business flash coming up. picturealso take a live of the -- time for the bloomberg business flash, the biggest stories we're following. we are taking a live picture at the parliament of catalonia in barcelona. the president of catalonia, carles puigdemont, just announced that they will be delaying the press conference for one hour. that was to do with whether or not he would declare independence. question.he key the referendum on october 1 having been declared unconstitutional. we reported earlier that lawmakers of the opposition have walked out of the element -- parliament. journalists apply to cover. all of the media available to cover this are covering it. shery: this is a historic day. if they do declare independence, it will be the biggest political crisis since 1981, when there was an attempted coup in spain. president has to lay the speech on whether or not he will

joining us now from washington formerier blanchard, the imf chief economist. d el-erian says it's the ok but economy. things are good, but. how do we address the problems that still exist? >> we should always think about the but. especially when things are good. i think things are good. the recovery is strong in most places. he is right. in europe there is still a long way to go. the unemployment rate is still very high. we are seeing the end of the strong pinto of low growth -- strong pinto -- period of low growth. the underlying growth rate seems to be lower before.was we don't understand exactly why. the other is that when things are good we have to think about when is the next recession going to come and whether we have the tools to fight it. that we haveous the tools to fight it well. these are the issues i would mention. let's pick out the first of those issues to begin with. the idea that we can't get back to 3%. we have an administration that would like the tax cuts to pay for themselves by generate 2.9% growth over 10 years. are you basically saying th

the greek prime minister and the imf chief both want greece to return to self-reliance as soon as possibleth that in mind, he presented an optimistic outlook for the future of the greek economy. >> after several years of economic depression, greece is turning around. acute risks and uncertainty have subsided. economic recovery is gaining traction. indeed, the 2017 expected growth rate of approximately 2% has not been seen, something like that, since 2007. reporter: but is the outlook really that rosie? let's take a look at the numbers. one in five greeks are still out of work. the economy actually contracted last year. and gdp at 176 billion euros was down from the year before. those figures have come at a surprise to lenders, who were expecting modest growth. despite that, the imf seems ready to support greece's desire to exit a program. >> i believe resolute implementation of this program together with an agreement with greece's european partners on debt relief, are essential to support greece's return to sustainable growth in a successful exit from any official financing as soon as next

sara eisen at the imf fall meeting. >> big banks, two more opening their books. wells farco had earnings we have been listening in, and the wells call is just now getting under way. >> let's start with wells fargo siz it's the big mover the efficiency ratio remained elevated at 61%. lower is better for that number, and it was a rise, more due to a revenue miss without the associated fall in expenses this quarter rather than an outright spike in costs the number higher than they would want the bank also took a one-time litigation expense for mortgage regulatory investigations of $1 billion. the timing of this taking some by surprise. it feels like an anticipation of settling with the doj, which they haven't done yet, and an example of the ceo trying to tighten up issues. bapg of america results were solid across the board their expenses were in fact the lowest they have been since merrill lynch was acquired eight years ago. the important 2018 $53 billion total expense target was reiterated while shell's shares fell 1.4% yesterday in light of elevated credit costs

year, beginning of the the imf had included in its estimates for u.s. owth the assumption that tax cut would go through this year. june, it removed those assumptions and lower the forecast largely because of that. now it has bumped up the u.s. forecast slightly but still has not added back in the assumptions of tax cuts. we heard from the treasury today saying, it is not something you guys should be weighing in on. we say we will get them done, and they will get done. likewise, theguys imf said in a separate report that shifting some tax to the highest earnings can help with any quality. and again, the u.s. kind of swiped back at that and said the plan for tax cuts for the middle-class is the way to go. >> the white house not appreciating the imf framing. economicer for u.s. policy and the bloomberg international reporter, thank you for joining us from washington. coming up, we will go over the latest fomc minutes aired what will they expect for the rest of the year in 2018. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> growing concern that low inflation is more than just a p

what did you learn at the imf? is a basic idea of a better economy out there, but a lot of buts. not all that much confidence on sustainability. the most cautious was cap your name at oecd. she does not by the global recovery. francine: she is pretty tough on the banks. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. taylor: in spain, the government may begin the process of suspending self-rule within catalonia within days. the catalonian resident wants a face-to-face meeting with the spanish presence. answer was not a clear yes or no that he demanded by today, which may be enough for him to take direct control of the region. seizedys they the refinery and other resources. for the iraqioint government and semiautonomous regions. in austria, voters have turned to the right. they cleared the way for the 31-year-old prime minister to become the world's youngest prime minister. the national government to the hard-line stance on immigration. mentioning, british prime minister theresa may will try to break deadlock

interesting in the imf report it said the only country that was downgraded was the uk and today we hadtart the brexit negotiations. that really is key for the uk economy. for the economy, thatis the uk economy. for the economy, that is true. the stock market carries more weight than the local economy. especially the ftse 100 economy. especially the ftse100 which is very international. the other focus is mark carney, the governor of the bank of england, and a lot of central bankers have been talking over the weekend, like janet yellen, they are all focused on where inflation is headed. it is a real issue in the uk. it is because you have got a disconnect between headline and corn. it is true in the states were energy costs and exchange—rate movements have boosted the headline level of inflation here in the uk, so we will see a number around 3%, a full percentage point ahead of what the bank of england's target is. that could incur mark carney writing a letter to the government. there is quite a lot at sta ke. government. there is quite a lot at stake. he has also outlined the fact he wo

continue to support in the budget the imf. >> okay. 's the president and prime minister tsipras. let's listen to their comments. >> i want to make a comment that the stock market hit an all time record high. it broke for the first time ever 23,000. we're very happy about that. i hope that greece is going to be doing the same thing very soon. i think they will. i'm honored to welcome prime minister tsipras of greece. he's a special man who has done a very special job. we're grateful to the prime minister and to his entire delegation for visiting us today at the white house. greece is a cradle of western civilization. so true. of democracy, literature, philosophy, science and so much else. america looks on that glorious heritage with wonder and with awe. you do indeed have a tremendous heritage, mr. prime minister. perhaps for this reason america's friendship with the greek people has been long and enduring. thomas jefferson wrote at the dawn of the modern greek state that no people sympathize more with greek patriots and none offer more

the imf warns global growth is at risk of faltering, citing geopolitical drama. l the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. ♪ welcome back to "the best of bloomberg markets: middle east," i am yousef gamal el-din. i met warns that level growth is at risk of faltering in coming years. the financial committee says low inflation and geopolitical tensions meant there was no room for complacency. we talked to the senior at ative offer -- officer management company. >> it goes into two sides. validaterst hand, they what the global markets have done so far. what they have said is we've seen broad-based recovery, seen recoveries grow. one by one, the

a few weeks ago you wrote an op-ed in bloomberg view of all places titled the imf needs to stop torturing you acknowledged your position looked for things to improve. why greece, why you? kyle: i can answer the other two. greece has gone through a great depression. peak to trough gdp decline. greek people. the great government has suffered mightily because they don't have a currency of their own to make the adjustments that needed to be made post financial crisis. so, greece has been at the mercy -- the european union and imf together lends a lot of money to greece. now, basically what i was saying is i think the imf is being too punitive with the requirements or demands on greece. a muchded up coming to better mutual conclusion post. erik: so why now? the reason i ask, some would look at the greek trade and say it has played out nicely for those who are in greek government bonds. they have been rowling. kyle: there is a difference between the bonds and the banks. banks,u look at the collectively they have $10 billion of market cap. it is the lowest in the world. when you think about an e

leverage levels are creeping up all over as the imf focusing on the risk to financial stability. largest u.s. banks report earnings and revealing a less credit where the american consumer. how big of a concern is that for debt markets? we start with a big issue, markets continue to shrug off risk. >> it's really surprising when you look at all the events that have gone on in the market becomes so jaded. they don't react like they used to. >> i don't know about you, but i'm nervous. and it seems like when investors are nervous they are prone to being spooked. and nothing seems to spook the market. >> central banks are keeping the peddal too much on the gas and we are sucking out volatility that is not conducive to long-term growth. >> in this case, i don't think it's a bubble, i just think there is a disaster risk the markets are not taking into account. lisa: lots of existential angst. joining me in new york is michael cloherty. bonnie wongtrakool, portfolio manager at western asset management and scott kimball. i want to start with the ecb. we did get news overnight giving more

of course, the imf and world bank are having their meetings at the end of the week in washington. the gulf news carries the spat between us president donald trump and his secretary of state rex tillerson — with trump suggesting the pair face off in an iq test. and finally, back to the guardian, which is also running with new advice on british eggs. vulnerable groups such as pregnant women or the elderly will no longer have to soldier on without soft boiled eggs as they've been declared safe for everyone. isn't that lovely. we will focus on that in a minute. but let's begin. with us this morning is liam booth—smith who is the chief executive of independent think tank, localis. let's start with ca rles let's start with carles puigdemont. a difficult position to be put into. greeted this huge, euphoric moment of saying i declare independence, vincent duport that all back again. yes, andl vincent duport that all back again. yes, and i think he will suffer that. -- then pull it all back again. want to declare independence, you have to follow through. we only get stories in 32nd, one mi

as henry said, he walked into a set of interviews, he was at the imf meetings in the united states, sounding about howl states, sounding conciliatory, talking about how i know people have got it in for me but we are trying to work in the same direction, 20 minutes later he gets drawn into calling the rest of the eu the enemy and then walks back again by thinking he needs a nice lie down. is this stress? he is trying to give a lot of people happy. and it is impossible. it is very easy to misspeak. i am impossible. it is very easy to misspeak. iam not impossible. it is very easy to misspeak. i am not saying he did. impossible. it is very easy to misspeak. iam not saying he did. it is easy to use the wrong word, particularly when doing a succession of interviews about complex stuff? it is but i am not sure how sympathetic lots of conservative mps will be. one of the things about philip hammond but as mps say is he is not particularly friendly to collea g u es is not particularly friendly to colleagues when they are in trouble. one of the consequences is when he is in trouble, as he was in the l

let's talk about the managing director of the imf. akers have world's economy best performance in a decade to push through reforms that will diffuse political tensions, and make expansion sustainable. we are seeing clouds on the horizon. countries and people not having the benefit of it. my message to the policymakers in the next two days, and they're coming in today, will be take decisive action. procure that recovery and make sure people have the benefit of it. the pound was whipsawed yesterday on mixed messages of brexit negotiations. said talks were deadlocked. the german newspaper reported that barnier is seeking an agreement on a two-year transition dale with the u.k.. the head ofel is rates, aviva investors. deadlock, it is well anchored in sourced, up by --% on the hope that barnier charlie: the outcome is becoming more binary. conversation and political jousting hinting at a no deal. everything is raising uncertainty, making people cautious, and having a real economic impact. at the same time, you get a story that suggests may

of course, the imf and world bank

the imf has been warning about these high levels. e of the interesting things is that a lot of people have been positive about the economy. the reason it was on the rebound was because the government was pouring more credit into the economy, fueling asset bubbles, fueling even more overcapacity, even more debt. that's exactly what the imf and others have been warning that could lead to that moment. joe: how unusual was it to hear this coming from him, and as you said, people have been talking about this for years, since a long as i've been paying attention to economic markets. is it going to come at some point? >> i think we have seen already a growth squeeze in china. accumulations work the same way. in a western economy you have theyebt crisis, in china, have been able to avoid serious corrections for a lot longer than a lot of critics have said. that's not necessarily a good thing. that means the imbalances persist, the debt levels grow higher. a correction -- maybe there's a correction in the end that is cataclysmic, maybe it's si