there is a private body, the isda, which makes determinations whether a credit event has occurred. >> when a default happens? >> that's right. and in the case of greece, thus far there has been a so-called private sector involvement, a voluntary agreement with the private sector bondholders. there's also been exchange of bonds by ecb and other government agencies with greece that essentially give some protection to the ecb for its greek debt holdings. the news this morning, i believe, is that the isda determined those two events did not constitute a credit event for the purpose of the cds activation. >> why did it not create the dynamic there? why did it not? >> well, i guess their view is that so far, the negotiations have been volunteer. the possibility exists, the greek government has retro actively created so-called action clauses, which it could force other investors to take losses, and in that case, the isda would look at it again and perhaps in that case would declare a fault had occurred. >> i want to go into one other thing. the dodd-frank accused created a new position at th

markets but then that was tempered by the isda ruling that a credit event happened in greece so it will be interesting to see how the undertones of the global market impact us today. >> indeed. we'll be analyzing all of that throughout the show, of course, here on cnbc so do stay tuned over the next hour for all of that. a quick check on how the european markets are shaping up as we start off the new trading week and although last week was a negative overall, there are three strong sessions to finish off last week, certainly on the equity markets and today we're starting mixed. the ftse and the cac are both slightly lower. we're talking a few points in each direction while the dax is moving higher. ftse may be more convincing up by 0.2%. moody's has warned the risk of a greek default is apparently set to remain very high after the bond swap. however in an exclusive interview with cnbcevangelos venizel venizelos played down the decision to class fly the plan as a credit event. silvia wadhwa joins us now. silvia? >> reporter: beccy, among other things, one of the first things is how disap

the isda announcing that greece's restructuring has triggered a credit event. you know, this threatens the credibility of the overall sovereign cds market. let's get more on the story from chief executive robert pickle. thanks very much for joining us. your overall reaction here to the declaration you essentially made, give us some guidance of where we go from here. >> sure. i think what we've decided today is something we had anticipated for quite a while. as the greeks and their investors went through this discussion of exchange in these bonds. it was really only when the formal offer was made two weeks ago with the inclusion of the collective action clauses that we thought we would be moving towards a determination that there was a credit event in the contracts between the two parties that utilized these cdss. this is very much in many ways an expected result today. but we needed to go through the process as required by the terms of the contract and as required by the law in greece before we could formally make that determination. >> mr. pickel, let's go thr

the big meeting comes as the isda, the organization that determines when a credit event has occurred,ays a credit event has not yet -- emphasize yet, occurred in greece. a declaration that would have triggered payouts of more than $3 billion in greek credit default swaps. >>> well, china has pledged to help the debt-stricken region by buying up european bonds, but it's going the other way here. china now cutting its holdings of u.s. treasuries. so how big a deal is this? rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. rick, what are you hearing from traders? how concerned are they or not concerned are they about this? >> you know, i will tell you this. when it comes to what's going on in greece, traders care about one thing. and that is to keep on top of which way various votes are going, will they get the check in time for march 20th, when it comes to things like the isda and whether it's a credit event or not, traders really -- you know, they're pretty much an entrepreneurial capitalist bunch. buyer be ware. if you bought these contracts -- you know, they put on their website all t

the default widely expected. isda saying greece triggered the payment on default insurance contracts by using legislation that forces losses on all private creditors. we'll go live to athens and give you the impact on your money coming up. meanwhile, take a look at the numbers, the dow jones industrial average, as strong as 65 points earlier today. 12,924. nasdaq, the big winner, has been the big winner year-to-date, about 18 points higher at 2988. the s&p 500 tonight up five points, at 1370. bob pisani is on the floor of the nyse right now. >> there's three themes that the market has been laying off of. all three got a little commentary today. let's put up the key points. the nonform payrolls push in a little bit. well, better than expected. in general. and the revision in january to the upside. that's a plus here. soft landing in china here. we've got economic data that even though china is slowing, it's not slowing as much as people think. numbers still pretty good. in europe, we'll get a mild recession. but contai

we heard comments from the isda, the international swaps and derivatives association last week that thereasn't a credit event that justified credit default swaps the insurance on greek bonds being paid out but if events don't go well for greece this week, it's likely that $3 billion will be paid out to credit default swaps holders, the insurance on these bonds. and greece will be defaulting on its sovereign debt. >> let me be absolutely clear about this, so i understand and the viewers understand. what you're really saying is there's a linkage between whether this whole deal with greece is formally designated a credit event and whether the psi, the deal goes through this week. in other words, unless the $3.2 billion or whatever it is, get paid out, we won't get a deal this week, is that what you're saying more or less? >> pretty much. greece requires voluntary takeup of the new bonds and voluntary defaulting or giving up of the old bonds. that figure has to come in over 75% of existing bond holders. it's likely the investment banks will agree to it because they're the ones also holding th

at the same time isda is going to meet to decide if a credit event has taken place in greece. the committee received another question in relation to the greek debt swap. it's meeting at 14:00 cet. if if it is decided, it is worth over $3 billion should be triggered. joining us now is alberta gallow, head of rbs. kit is still with us. the interesting thing, what i should explain about this question is they received it before they've known whether collective action triggers. they're not yet going to -- they haven't yet been asked post collection. that seems to be the key point. >> yes. we really want the isda verdict after collective action clauses have been confirmed. and any questions that anybody answers before then, we might as well ignore. >> we're miking alberta up so he's ready to go. any question until we know whether we get collective action clauses of isda is irrelevant? >> i think the cacs will be triggered at 1:00 p.m. tonight. it is clear they don't have enough money to pay the remainder that have not participated. i don't think it's a very big negative for the marke

here as the official statement from isda, and all the voting members. that swatch with the ecb, david, is not a credit event, and therefore will not pay. that will get a lot of chatter today. >> it is, but again it appears they're putting it off. it doesn't mean it won't ultimately be a credit event, but not overall a potential default. still down the road and triggers those -- but those who are saying, again, this idea well the cds doesn't work, i bought insurance, now i can't collect, your point -- i got 20% of my house left, that's what i've got to live in. it raises a question to whether these are effective mechanisms to actually hedge. the biggest criticism is buying insurance on her home, and then burning it down, which always will be a key part of this conversation. >> and whose is, though? that's another part of the conversation. there's another article in the journal about the secretive body, who these members are, and how they as an institution stand to gain on any given judgment. there are three banks that sod more cds than they bought. >> we

the organization in charge of deciding, the isda, will convene in london later on friday. ected the answer is yes, holders on greek debt could be in for the payouts that they've been expecting, estimated to be north of $3 billion. let's see how the european stock markets are digesting that now. trading's been underway for just over 90 minutes. last time i looked we're looking at some good gains for the athens index, but actually it's been a bit of a disappointment in a way. some of this news was out already. it had been rather expected. there had been leaks of information, i suspect, so this is up by .25% hanging in for the ftse and the paris cac karant. all of these markets, andrew, are waiting to see what the u.s. job numbers are, the non-farm payrolls will look like when they come out in five hours' times. >> i think you're right, charles. here in asia the markets did end higher playing a little bit of catchup after they finished off while the rest of the world was moving higher. they are the numbers right there. charles? >> okay. let's have a look at wall street leading

there is a private body, the isda which makes determinations whether a credit event happens. ight and in the case of greece which is the relevant issue, thus far there has been a so-called private sector involvement purpose portedly involvement with the private sector bond holders and there's also been an exchange of bonds by ecb and other government agencies with greece that essentially gives some protection to the ecb for its greek debt holdings. the news this morning, i believe, was that the isda determined that those two events did not constitute a credit default from the activation. however -- >> and why did it not create the dynamic there? why did it not? >> their view is that so far that the negotiations have been voluntary. now, the possibility exists -- the greek government has retroactively created so-called collective action clauses which it could use in the future to force other private sector investors to take losses even if they haven't agreed to this voluntary deal. in that case the isda could look at that time again but it could say if a default had occurred bu

as of last week no one had lost any money. >> the isda decision last week was justified because we're still going through the process of the bond swap. >> that then changes this week when they try and execute. now if we don't get to a level where they can even execute, that's when things can get quite interesting. >> that's the point. do we reach the level at which they are able to trigger the collective action clause, the 60% threshold? >> the outcome there, let's not forget most of the greek debt under this bond swap currently is issued under greek law. now obviously part of the bond swap is the legal jurisdiction of those bonds will change to english law. as of today they're under greek law. the greeks turn around and say, look, we can't enforce the cac. you bondholders have not agreed to a bond swap in the final analysis then they can enforce a default on them. >> that would be similar to the situation we had with the irish banks last year in some ways. >> yes. >> i think the other thing to remember is the largest single constituency holding the ggb debt are the greek banks themse

we all know, david, the we the situation isda on friday to declare it and a discussion about whether gns in the future. will the market survive this test? >> it's a fair question. and we'll see. my expectation is people will still use them ultimately. the product at least proved to a certain extent they had not allowed by -- >> maybe not by force. >> perhaps by force. >> why was it such a focus given how -- why did we hear about this? is it something that we should just asterisk. whoever owes money, the bank stocks are all down. maybe -- kelly evans, are the bank stocks down because maybe someone is on the hook for this stuff? >> talks about what was happening to the banks in austria that had to pay out. aside from that, as you said, the market function is expected. this wasn't a surprise to anybody. >> i think there was a concern that in -- if you did not get the insurance you had paid for, in this case,cds insurance, you would not use the product in the future. we talked about the ramifications of that buzz then you have people who -- indianapolis stuss who buy sovereign debt who do

that ruling is just in from the isda they say there is no credit event for the greek cdss because of was an expectation it would be declared a credit event and that's why some of the cost of greek bonds for ensuring some of them had been creeping higher. the ruling comes out this is not something that triggered a credit event. >> amazing. >> i think a lot of people didn't think it was. >> it wasn't roll tear. >> 20 cents on the dollar, not -- >> you knew they were trying to right this whole thing around. >> see no evil, near evil. >> the other 20% will be forced into this not voluntary but the ruling is this is not officially something that's triggered. >> you can appeal, it's a 15-member panel, it's closed door no, transcript, no nothing. >> i think people were worried if it were declared is the money there, worried about another -- so we're afraid. why pay any money for the ucs? >> the ruling is out and it was that there was no event that triggered this. >>> when we come back we'll be joined from russia with love by steve liesman who is taking a look at the risks and rewards when i

the same time. now we are also understanding that -- you thought ltro, long-term was a difficult concept, get your head around this. this is isda. the international swaps and derivatives association. and they've been asked to, as we understand it, they've been asked to 0 decide whether or not a credit the event has taken place in greece, if they eventually decide that, of course, they will trigger cds. they have a meeting this morning to decide whether they should discuss whether a credit event is taking place. cnbc has confirmed that a second question has been asked of them. so those deliberations are going to take place. it's very con can fusing, just to explain what isda is and why they're deciding on this, they're a global financial trade association. they have basically 815 institutions for 58 kcountries and six continents and it it's a range of derivatives, international banks, asset managers, energy commodity firms. they basically -- one of them get together and they sort of decide whether they, "a," first of all, want to answer the question and then if they want to answer the question when they're going to do it be a th

the swaps. i've got more to come with isda. >> watch out for the greek gdp, 7.5% down in the fourth quarter.less than expected and that will make it harder to meet the targets. >> melissa? >> brian, thank you. >>> the jobs report for february showing solid gains. nonfarm payrolls rising 220,000 with the unemployment steady at 8.3%, and here with us is hilda solis, the labor secretary. pleasure to speak to you again. >> thank you. >> it's the first time that the payrolls have grown more than 200,000 three months in a row, how confident are you that this is the start of a lasting trend? >> well, i'm not going to get into particulars, but i will say that i am confident that we're on the right path, and we continue to see gains in areas like manufacturing, leisure hospitality, professions andb4 business and also in health care. those are the four sectors that continue to be pushed out and that's why the president today is out talking about manufacturing investments, because nevertheless we lost many, many jobs there and we need to continue to focus in on creating opportunities that pay well-payi

sector investors to take losses even if they have not agreed to this voluntary deal, and in that case the isda will look at it again. that has not occurred yet. >> i want to go into one other thing. the dodd-franc act created a new position of vice chairman for supervision, which is subject to senate confirmation. almost two years later the president still has not nominated anyone this position. who is currently fulfilling those duties if they're being done? >> they are of course being done and the dutesies are being distributed across the staff. but the governor is the head of the bank supervisor vision committee and has on many occasions testified before this committee on regulatory matters. >> do you believe ta that position should be nominated and filled? >> well, congress created the position, and, yes, i'd like to see it filled and i'd also like to see the board filled as well. >> and my last question has to do with the balance sheet, which is approximately my understanding about $2.9 trillion. how are you going to shrink that? i know you're not going to some renk it now. do you have a p

the european financial crisis. back to you guys. >> michelle, if isda decides, we expect if this is the triggered these clauses and da, we expect, will eventually say yes, this is now a credit default situation, what if they decide not to? how are we supposed to ignore that? >> reporter: okay. if once the collective action clauses are absolutely executed and done and isda still says this isn't a credit event, they will have chited harry kaer because they will have committed suicide for their entire market. let's see what they do. i don't expect them to do that. everyone involved in the process, the parliamentarians in the building knew that if those collective action clauses were imposed it would trigger a cds event so this shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. if they don't, it will be a big issue. >> michelle is the european banking system long or short greek debt? it seems like the government has been acting like it's simultaneously both. we want to avoid a cds effect because it will affect the banking system and yet we want to write down greek debt because it will affect the banking system. i don't think it can b

both moody's and the international swaps and derivatives association, isda, you've seen that a lot in the headlines of late, they say greece has technically defaulted by effect ofly forcing bond holders to take part of in its debt restructuring deal. let's take a look at how this is playing out on the stock markets. we are seeing more or less what we expected, perhaps more negative than we thought. off by a third of a percent, quarter percent in the case of the dax. the broad picture really is pretty much the same. we were expecting flattish markets. i suspect a lot of this has to do with what has been going on in asia. we'll have more on that from andrew in a moment. we'll have more analysis on where the trading action will be going with our market analyst michael houston. andrew, i think asia isy your big story. >> i think you're right, it is today's story. surprising given the fact we had such strong job numbers on friday out of the u.s. that we have this sort of reaction in the asia today. usually we'd expect to see strong green arrows across the board on the back of the fact that

sector investors to take losses even if they have not agreed to this voluntary deal, and in that case the isda again. that has not occurred yet. >> i want to go into one other thing. the dodd-frank act created a new position of vice chairman for supervision, which is subject to senate confirmation. almost two years later the president still has not nominated anyone this position. who is currently fulfilling those duties if they're being done? >> they are of course being done, and do these are distributed -- and the duties are distributed among the governors and the staff. the point person as governor to rouleau, the head of the bank's division committee. he has testified before this committee. >> do you believe that position should be nominated and filled? >> congress created the position. yes, i would like to see it filled. also like to the board filled as well. >> the balance sheet, which is approximately about $2.90 trillion. how are you going to shrink that? i know you are not going to shrink it now. do you have a plan? i am assure you of talk about it. we have talked a little bit about it

. >> but after what we saw on friday maybe the decision by isda reinvigorates the belief that it works going to be voluntary, people got nervous the credit default swaps weren't going to work. >> i didn't realize portuguese debt is trading at 10%. >> there's a lot of risk that portugal goes the same way as greece. i think, this is just me opining but i'm not sure it's necessarily the huge event. greece has shown us what happens, right? >> here is the blueprint. >> we're all still here and what is the dow doing? right? is it possible that greece absolutely defaults, it is. their numbers aren't bad as greece but it's a possibility but at the same time is it going to matter as much? i don't know. i feel a lot of it is priced in. people have seen what the movie looks like and we're sitting here doing just fine. so. >> michelle, thank you. >> all right, let's get mario is here, mario gabelli, get some thoughts, joining us now, gamco chief investment officer, always interests theses about a lot of different subjects. we don't revisit a lot of the stuff you talk about sometimes, and do you re

sector investors to take losses even if they have not agreed to this voluntary deal, and in that case the isda will look at it again. that has not occurred yet. >> i want to go into one other thing. the dodd-frank act created a new position of vice chairman for supervision, which is subject to senate confirmation. almost two years later the president still has not nominated anyone this position. who is currently fulfilling those duties if they're being done? >> they are being done, and the duties are distributed across the governors, but the point person is the head of the bank's supervision committee and has testified before this committee on regulatory matters. >> do you believe that position should be filled? >> congress created the position and i would like to see if filled out and i would like to see the board filled as well. >> my last question has to do with the balance sheet. how are you going to shrink that? i know you are not look to shrink it now, do you have a plan? we have talked about it and little bit at times, but that is a huge balance sheet to start shrinking, and now is not

greek debt default swaps will find out how much they're going to be paid on the $3.2 billion of outstanding cds contracts. isdatermined it constituted a, quote, credit event. most are expected it to rule the tolders are entitled to about $2.5 billion in reimbursement. european equities at this hour, you can see, ross, back home does this feel good to you? not so great but not so horrible either? >> we've been at eight-month highs, no surprise to see a little weakness. >> and how do you feel about the euro? i'm going to be in paris in about a month? >> euro dollar trading in really tight ranges. >> thank you for that commentary. and apple will discuss what it plans to do with its $98 billion cash hoard on a 9 a.m. cash call. they may meet demands to pay a dividend for the first time since 1995. courtney reagan joins us with more. >> the end of 2011, the tech behemoth, more than any nonfinancial corporation nearly double what microsoft has on its books at $57.7 billion. so according to moody's, apples cash pile cultures for 8% of the total $1.24 trillion in u.s. non-financial corporate cash holdings. quite a per

the answer will be yes. sue. >> you know, michelle, there have been so many though unexpected things in this whole saga. what happens if isda does not declare it a credit event? >> i think it might be total financial armageddon. i exaggerate a little bit, but it will be so unexpected, it will at a minimum cause incredible volatility. it will cause an immediate reversal of so much money that has moved around the world based on the assumption that the answer would be yes. >> uh-huh. >> it would also have very detrimental effects on the bond insurance market because a lot of people would look at this and say, wow, i bought insurance for my house for this storm and my insurance covers everything except the damage that i happened to receive during this storm. it's going to really poke a hole or big -- it's going to possibly destroy the whole credit insurance market. so i would be highly surprised if they don't declare this to be a credit event. we'll see though. >> indeed we will. thanks a million, michelle. >> of course shares of molycorp surging today. the company buying rival for $1.3 billion. the stock up almost 12.5%. the d

will be some who will ask the question whether that constitutes a default in terms of activating credit default swap. so what happens? petition for another ruling through isdald then have a vote. that goes in three different ways. if 80% say yes, we actually have had a credit default, there would be a possible bond auction payout. if 80% of that committee says no, then there is no cds payout. what happens if we don't get 80% either way? well, then we go to a three-member panel review who will then take that decision. so it's not that clear. but we are expecting, as we say, the betting man, the markets are assuming that there will be a collective action clause potentially. we'll have is enough votes to get that. if that happens, what are they going to say? still some unknowns about this, jackie. >> absolutely and the markets will be watching closely. to discuss it more as our guest host for the hour lance roberts, the ceo and chief economist at street talk advisers and silvia wadhwa joining us from frank further as well. lance, when we talk about greece, obviously we saw a major sell-off in terms of the markets on tuesday. we saw a little bit of a rebound ye