this point is it tame to actually take the inverse trade and maybe buy short-term paper the shy, the ishares, final chart, is a good instrument if you want to capture a 3.8 percent yield plus or minus and not go out in too much duration. what we are thinking is -- and we will make it up to the trend line and you want to buy shy >> carter thanks. >> mike, what's the trade here >> so interesting situation of course because we are getting into territory that we really haven't seen since before the credit crisis. you look at the immediate pre-credit crisis highs for the short-term rates 5%. if we got to 5%, what would that translate to for shy probably about 80 bucks. so that's really your downside if you buy it here of course, if you are speculating that rates are going to turn rather than buying this for yield, an inexpensive way would be to go out to december i was looking at the 83 strike calls. those things cost about a half a percent of the current share price, about 40 cents if you wanted to make a bullish bet but i think i would make a different point here as well, which is that sometime

there they are look at the ishares mortgage reit, down about 16% right now as opposed to the equity reits, which actually hold property, mortgage reits, the clue in there is the word mortgage, right? they invest in mortgages, and mortgage-backed securities, and many of those names are getting crushed this week on fears that their dividends will get cut the data come from our partners at tracknsight you can look on the ft wilshire etf hub. >>> let's get to brian sullivan. he's everywhere, man cnbc news update. >> you toss to me, i toss to you, tyler here's what's happening right now. hurricane ian near georgetown, south carolina, just south of myrtle beach the storm is still powerful, 85-mile-an-hour winds. myrtle beach already dealing with 4 foot of storm surge tropical storm winds extending more than 270 miles out from the eye of ian president biden urging people in south carolina to heed all warnings from state and local officials. about two-thirds of american adults do not plan on getting a covid booster shot soon. according to new poll. around 12% say they definitely won't get the sho

trial with 1800 patients over a year and a half it is lifting the biotech sector of spider and the ishares nearly 4% other companies working on alzheimer's treatments getting a boost including eli lilly up 7% and hitting an all-time high let's get a check on what's happening in florida and other news, the cnbc news update and seema moody. >> here's what's happening the eye of hurricane ian is just 25 miles from fort myers, florida. it remains a strong category 4 storm with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour and gusts reaching 190 miles per hour. ian is expected to slow down when it comes ashore and dump 12 to 18 inches of rain across a broad swath of the state. >>> in the baltic sea the nord stream natural gas leak may be the equivalent of 16 million tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. a danish official says that's a third of denmark's carbon dioxide emissions. >>> and lehman brothers, remember them, liquidation of its brokerage unit ended 14 years, 13 days after the company filed for bankruptcy and helped trigger the financial crisis in all more than $115 billion was p

yesterday's selloff, something strange has happened the momentum stock etf ticker mtum outperformed the ishare's expect the opposite to happen a look at the names on the low vol list provide an argument for why many etfs don't life up to their name among the top five holdings t-mobile and sysco far from low vol names. let's welcome in scott nations, president and cio of nation shares can you explain why it's hard to explain what's in your oatiev and not to buy them blindly and lessons we learned from yesterday. >> as you pointed out. not all low ball etfs are low ball the quintessential ones have utilities in them, the quintessential low ball etf is 28% utilities and that's horrible in a rising rate environment so you do have to pay attention to what's in your etf, and there's a bunch of overlap now between low ball etfs and momentum etfs only because the momentum etfs use a screener looking for names that are doing well versus the broad market, and in a downmarket that tends to be names like staples which are also a staple of low ball etfs. so absolutely right. you really have to pay attention

the ishares etf underperforming the dow by about 4%, now we have the citi downgrade of fedex.g to neutral, overall saying we're note getting the freight peaks we typically get this type of year maybe that's a sign of continuing moderating demand. >>> speaking of transports, there would be more people transporting themselves to the office now that we're after labor day. wall street is tackling the new return to office normal. post-bay day employees can work from home when needed, but encouraged to be in the office as much as possible. they must be vaccinated to enter offices in new york. most other markets don't have that mandate once in the office, things will likely look more like they did in 2019, no mask requirements, and curtailing of covid testing in the office sort of issues broad physical -- only to have to switch gears in the face of variants and covid waves that had re-prioritize remote work, much to the dismay of the c-suite. jamie dimon, for example, has long lamented the drawbacks of the work-from-home model so we'll see, guys, if this latest in-office push will be

little bit today, but these are all new lows these close -- the two big ones, vanguard total and the ishares u.s. aggregate, agg, closed at the lowest level since 2010 yesterday. so we're going back a long, long ways, and if you look at corporate bonds, they're not doing any better those two other ones there, ishares, iboxx and the vanguard short-term corporate bond, they're closing at essentially the lowest level since 2010 or so, if you exclude a brief moment in 2020 so, no real hope or help here, and carl, remember, that big one, that vanguard total bond, down 13% this year, even with a 2% yield, that's a pretty awful return stocks and bonds both down this year. carl, back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. bob pisani coming up in tonight's all-new episode of jay leno's garage, elon musk shows jay around spacex >> i would say life on mars is difficult, dangerous, people might die. it's just, fundamentally, are we going to become a multiplanet species or not even if we're sure earth will be fine forever, do we want to be here forever it's not like, let's escape to mars do we have a spurt

the ishares transport down double digits over the past month of trading but up 1.5% right now.dex. one analyst got the message before the street. downgrading the stock two weeks ago. citi's christian wetherby joins us now let's talk about fedex is this company-specific, a canary in the coal mine for broader transports how do you look at it? >> we look at it that fedex is good at picking up these types of trends early relative to some of the other names we cover and some of the other industrials in the market we don't think the magnitude necessarily reflects what's going on in the market i think the trends can be very much macro and could be read across to other companies. but i think the magnitude of the miss is probably something that's a little unique to fedex. >> given the fact we saw u.p.s. trade lower in sympathy on friday, and we do tend so see these two stocks move together in general when there's news for one of them, do you expect similar read-through to u.p.s. when we get earnings >> i think u.p.s. is a bit more resilient. i think they have more visibility into the ne

let's get a check on the home builders despite rising rates, ishares home builders eft has out performedr the last three months can that continue? key bank analyst ken zener joins us to break down the outlook ken, good to have you on, obviously with the exception of perhaps the new home sale rebound we saw esterday, data for housing has been weaker and weaker as we've seen interest rates move higher and higher do you invest in these stocks right now or steer clear for the time being >> we think this is the time to invest our recent thesis focuses on the builder's relative outperformance to the s&p, over 19 cycles since 1963 we're not sure if it's a bottom. a lot of our clients invest relative to the s&p. we think their relative risk to return is very compelling. a lot of times, as rate concerns unfold, what you see is in the worst cycles, the home builders drop earlier to the s&p for shallower, softer markets. >> interesting what specifically would you be buying of the names you covered? >> right, we kept nvr as a buy during our negative view which we've had since january. we just turned

joining us is head of americans ishares investment strategy at blackrock, gargi chaudhuri. is this thent for earnings? we are awaiting the bottom to full out when it came to earnings. we thought it would happen in the second quarter and i am wondering if fedex will the start of that. gargi: thank you for having me. so i think this will be a quarter where we will probably see a little bit of revisions lower come through. if we think about what we have so far, we are still looking at earnings growth at 5%. it is fair to expect to see some revisions re-rated lower, and that is probably still to be priced by the equity market. we have not seen that yet. so unfortunately, more pain for the equity markets in the months ahead. alix: how much pain? gargi: let's see. we are near the lowest, we haven't gotten back to the louisiana. certainly it is fair to revisit that. how much pain can be answered by how much the fed guides us. we will hear from them this week that they are looking to go much above the 4% or 4.25 percent, perhaps even 4.5%. and i think more pain as rates get much higher. howeve