were investors not satisfied with the current job data in the u.s.? hat was probably one reason stocks traded lower. tuesday we had global growth concerns and wednesday we had lower economic data. job growth was lower than expected. on friday will get the big job report but the job data was one reason why trading went weaker here in new york. >> finally, the new york stock exchange is owner has challenged plans to derail the merger to the london stock exchange and deutsche burrs appear in germany. tell us more. >> overall, the u.s. exchanges, they were looking for quite a while to expand the business to europe, but now obviously, they are thinking that bind the london stock exchange probably would be too expensive. it was goods -- good news for the stocks of intercontinental exchange, but we still have to wait and see what happens because they're still all this discussion if britain might leave the european union, that could derail those plans and also european regulators still have a saying. the deal is still not 100% done. >> thank you. to europe now

today is all about the u.s. jobs data and whether it can give us an indication of what janet yellen may or may not do in june. this is a picture for the msci index. down 0.2%. we are down on the week, the biggest weekly loss since february. yen rising a touch ahead of that key american jobs data. haven,u look at yen as a we've seen it increased this week. let's get the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: the aussie dollar has dropped and bond yields have fallen to a record after the rba reduced its outlook for core inflation. the quarterly statement sees underlying inflation of 1% to 2% this year. disinflation will be a key challenge for incoming rba who willphillip lowe, succeed glenn stevens in september. u.k. voters have given their first verdict on jeremy corbyn's leadership of the labour party. early results suggest sustained losses across england and in elections to the scottish parliament. the bright spot for labor may be the london mayoral race. khan has run a pro-business campaign, distancing himse

a lot of investors waiti inin i the u.s. jobs data. the nikkei dipping in the negative. it was up 100 points when it first opened. we're seeing a bit of a negative reaction here. the topix still many the positive for friday, may 6th. invests have been trading cautiously. we did see the dollar regain in ground after falling earlier in the week. that may boost exporters. many market players still on the sidelines. volume might be a little less than intended. commodity prices may also have a say as crude benchmarks really went through a bit of volatility in the three days that markets were closed. industrial metals saw volatility and negative price action as well. >> tell us about the dollar yen. it's really seen some swings. >> exactly. we did see volatility when markets were closed here. the green back hit a 18-month low. 105.50 on tuesday. it has obviously bounced back a touch. u.s. jobless claims data came in touch under expectations which puts the focus squarely on the main figure coming out later today. the euro dollar, not seeing that much movement. investors waiting

the economy. big data from manufacturing. for more, mike mckee joins us. mike, we could see more volatility in the markets. we have data, fed speak leading to repositioning. the jobsthe key, isn't it? >> indeed. the jobs report is what you always need to see, and that is what the fed is looking at. they're looking for straight, 200,000 jobs, which would tell in the u.s. is on track. although the current manufacturer number is also key. if it is strong, there will be more of a feeling that the second quarter is going to have a decent rebound and if it is week it will set off additional market concerns and keep people from thinking the fed will do much. mark: we spoke to a fed policymaker on friday, another fed officials speak this week. what is the tone, the message from the fed? >> that officials would like to get across that they are dated and, not worried about the major , overarching problems of china in the dollar spot they want to see what happens to the u.s. economy and if the u.s. economy does perform as they expect in june is very much on the table but markets haven't priced that it. it will be an interesting week to see if we get some volatility is the nu

what about the job data? april is not a great month when it comes to job growth. why isn't that confirming the robust conditions? guest: we are getting the disconnect a bit. we had very good jobs growth. we didn't get the gdp growth. with the unemployment where it is, estimate suggesting we only need somewhere between 100 and 150 new jobs a month to take up the labor force, we could see a slowdown in jobs growth below 200,000 without the fed being too upset. one of the things holding back is available workers. we are seeing a shortage of workers. we are seeing the in the employment reports and the survey data. right now with the impediment to job growth it is not necessarily gdp growth. it is actually supplied growth. do we have the right employees to bring on board and to keep that job growth going? >> so it's happening for the right reasons? alix: if you're looking for upset in the dollar, what is the impact going to be an emerging market currencies which tend to have a lot of volatility? >> we have seen some of that. equally important for emerging market currenc

jobs report we saw this morning. we will take you live to the white house briefing room. scarlet: speaking of jobs, april posted the weakest gains in job growth. alix: markets showing muted reaction to that dataading for a fourth day, headed for an 18 month low with a drop in treasuries and yields higher. scarlet: we are halfway through the u.s. trading day. julie hyman

quarter and more important, the second half, a second-half tracking toward 3% might mean three rate hikes this year. coming down of data the pike, and i want to talk about the jobs data we are expecting in a week or so. you think the fed is satisfied with the unemployment rate? >> they are probably more happy with the full employment side. they spent late last year and early this year saying that job gains as low as 100,000 are enough to tighten the labor market, so the fed was probably not even swayed by the 160 points we got last month. if we add another 160 this month, the fed would probably still go ahead and hike rates a few times. i think they are mostly satisfied with the employment side. on the inflation side, i think they are less satisfied. with oil at $50, i think they could quickly approach the 2% target, maybe as soon as the third quarter. that could get the fed to raise rates again this year as well. shery: from what you are hearing from federal officials, how much ,o you think it weighs on them landing, asible hard possible brexit, compared to domestic issues? >> right now, the global , financialcture stresses we saw earlier this year as weighing

. >> i actually think two or three, given where the economy is, the job growth we have seen, the inflation datae have seen. motor shareshi have plunged after the company said it used improper methods to test the fuel efficiency of the vehicle. it first originated with mitsubishi motors, and suzuki will brief the media on the issue at 8 a.m. u.k. time. oil prices rose in china's cities, after gains in second-tier pass advances in the larger hub. 65 cities, compared with 62 in march, while sales jumped almost 64% to $122 billion. bernie sanders has won the democratic residential primary in oregon. meanwhile, hillary clinton claimed victory in kentucky. donald trump one the oregon primary, though he has effectively clinched the nomination as the only contender in the race. ted cruz and john kasich remain on the ballot. the chances of a brexit have fallen to 24%, according to a firm called good judgment. and the panel of so-called super forecasters, suggesting less certainty than the polls are signaling. calculated by banks, including morgan stanley citigroup and others. global news 24 hours a day,

rishaad: talking about australia, we see the jobs data come out, and i'm going to say your guess is asas mine given the volatility and the way it's been calculated. there's been a lot of outsizersy, some numbers, particularly associated with the rebasing of the sample that the pure of statistics uses. i think of sensible way of losing with statistics is to look at the trend view. at a 12 month view of our labor market, unemployment has declined from , but broadly speaking, unemployment has been falling, job growth has been good enough to do that, pretty steady participation rate, but as in other places around the world, there has not been a good enough scenario to promote wage growth. we still have very high underemployment here. the new jobs being created are in low growth, lower wage areas toe to raise him as opposed the higher mining services industries. there is no relief in any of this at this stage. let's take you to some stories making headlines around the world. the head of china's national people's congress told hong kong to embrace integration with the mainland and rejected t

the job data is going to get weaker or more likely gdp is going to get stronger. g the latter. personallypens, i would be moving toward advocating some removal accommodations sooner rather than later. slowdown, therter first quarter slowdown happened in 2015 and happened in 2014. twot of that, the previous was due too the weather. you can't cite that is a big factor this time. my to the bounceback be more difficult to achieve this time? mike: no one really knows. there is a feeling at the fed that there are some seasonal problems, that the first quarter is difficult to adjust. maybe it is not the weather this time, but maybe it is something to do with the calendar, maybe the holidays at the end of the fourth quarter. to a man and woman, fed officials say they believe jobs rather than gdp. we measure jobs better and is a better indicator of where we are. thanks for michael mckee. 495.e looking for scarlet: good thursday afternoon. alix: here is what we're watching at this hour. oil is driving the market moved today, energy producers lifting u.s. stocks higher. scarl

crude oil pairing a weekly loss after the jobs data today. up. settling down about .3% u.s. ories rose to the highest since 1929 while production dropped the most in eight months. keep that in mind. production dropping but inventories way up. gold gaining the most in a week after the payrolls number came in weaker than anticipated. it could weaken the case for the fed to raise interest rates. the idea of a move in june is off the table as far as markets are concerned. at 12.90.5% today detroit pounds. natural gas higher today closing up almost 1% after a dip this morning. reportedanies first-quarter earnings this week. earnings per share at duke came in at 113 in line with estimates of 114, in part because of a milder winter. that is why it is a little lower than expected. they got good tax treatment because of foreign ownership of a unit that duke intends to sell. i will talk to the chief financial officer and ask him to give us some of the top-secret information about who will buy it and how much they will get for it. stephen young joins us. i notice we did not get that inf

that is ahead of the all-important u.s. jobs datast interesting washington right now. what a most interesting america. we have the jobs report and 8:30, but the backdrop is politics and a republican party in shock. good morning, francine lacqua in london. i am tom keene in new york. futures negative five, dow futures -37. my morning must-read is a little confusing. always hitting the ball out of the park writing for "the new york times," a fabulous article. quote is from senator reid of nevada. tom: this is a great article. the is great here is not polarities that we are facing. it is the many polarities. james manley is a democratic ,trategist in washington obviously in support of secretary clinton. i am absolutely flabbergasted, of the lastrhetoric one he four hours. let's start with the basic. have you ever seen this before? jim: absolutely not. to be clear, i spent six years working for senator reid as a spokesman, so when i saw that line lest my, i said bravo, well done, senator. the answer to your question is no. an increasingl

if you actually look at the data that's come out since the last fomc meeting, it was those minutes that suggested the rate hike. obviously the jobs. most of the economic data, including most of the economic data we got this week was well below expectations. i don't see a second quarter rebound. that was contingent that the fed said, if the economy improves and job market improves, we might raise rates. well, neither has improved. in fact, it seems like it's going in the other direction. >> in terms of the fed being boxed in, how does the dollar play into this? as i see it, if the fed raised rates, we have a much stronger dollar. if they don't, i'm not sure that i -- i think the rest of the world would start covering shorts. do you have a view on that? >> you know, i don't think so. the last time the fed raised rates, everybody thought it would be good for the dollar. and the dollar went down. i think this is a repeat of what happened late last year. the fed raised the possibility of a rate hike and see how the markets react. the markets basically are reacting positively. like they did in december of last year. everybody was convi

the slip that we saw following the jobs data, dollar index, that seems to be in the rearview mayor at the moment when you look at how trade has panned out. a quick check out oil prices. quite a big pop. we are getting a pop on oil prices. the dollar is relatively strong as well. 45.50 right now i'm crude. sectors,ome across flat here. cyclicals down 1%. iron ore, getting hammered. down about 6%. that is roughly the daily limit. i would say sentiments are still quite shaky in asia. anna: thank you very much, david ingles in hong kong. let's get more details of the saudi story. saudi arabia's oil minister says he will stick with a policy. the world's largest energy exporter continues to defend market share against higher cost of shale. will promote -- was promoted to oil minister over the weekend. it is great to have our guest on the program. how will the oil policy change under the new oil minister, if at all? think you already said it. it won't change. he issued a statement yesterday saying they are sticking to their policy of protecting market share as opposed to trying to beef up pr

the producer price data for april. further easing at the factory gate. deflation. it is going to get into the latest jobs data. been a key source of what led to the election of the ruling party. youth unemployment remains near 12%. it brings in japan's biggest earners. then we move into thursday. nestle is confident it to meet its 2016 targets. saudi arabia, the shakeup there is huge story. but also the post-oil era. also the wildfire that is raging through the canadian oil field. it couldeve this stage double in the space of 24 hours. you and i got together and the one word we decided on was continuity. the accession to power he's been around for very long time. he is been a part of the decision-making process. from a market perspective especially in the short term nothing is expected to change. i called it oil volatility. and then policy shifted. >> they learned a lesson in 1983. the price went below $10. what is the lesson from that that doesn't work. market shares what it's about. we will looking out to sea as profits are up or down. especially with oil prices down. >> we will make sure you get the proper

thes fr jobs report. bs repor it's been the month of april ofa ahead of that data. essentially exactly what we saw in the month of march. 202,000 jobs added 5% unemployment rate wages going ug point 3%.3% all of them decent signs theig t federal reserve is watching this report and the next one we getet before they meet to discuss when interest rates are going up andp how much how many times they'ren going up this year.in we have a flat market ahead ofga that news.thews. >> speaking of reports later rtl this morning we're supposed to be getting a good eye on the job market, job report.t i think for the last threeast t months we've been holding stea steady. what do you think looking forwardth? >> i just gave you theou t expectations for the jobs data so like i said it will lookl loo exactly like the march report.or the biggest issue receipt now it the message that that reporthatp sends to the rest of the marketr about the health of the us economy. because that's federal reserveve wants toth to know.o know. if we're creating jobs that aret paying well, if you have more

what you are ultimately the can for, both in this data and the jobs data, is productivity.ving built the unsecured leverage, expansion, and the wealth effect in the series of initiatives to buy houses you wonder where the next growth breakthrough comes in the u.k. it has to be productivity. matt: how'd you get that? how would that be held that by a possible br-exit vote? probably very little impact on productivity given it is such a long lead time. is on the structural reforms that have been taking place on the corporation tax and some of those things that will drive a long-term change in momentum. it is not unique to the u.k., of course. there is still a lot of damage or destruction of productive potential which we are hoping for signs to kind of restore confidence that there is a next leg up in this growth story. guy: the story the market is focusing on at the moment and pricing in his what's happening with the br-exit. we are in a short game now. it's only a few weeks away. you are wondering what might change the story. in their on both sides focusing on the migration st

megan: we are less than 30 mins away from the u.s. jobs data. 200,000 jobs expected in april. e full coverage of the report, including bill gross, just ahead. ♪ jonathan: 16 minutes and 20 seconds away from the payrolls report. let's get to matt miller with analyst calls. matt: i do not have analyst calls, but i've projections from economist. a cal we sat down yesterday with neil grossman and he roger hedge fund now -- runs a hedge fund now and he is looking at the average over the last 12 months. this pink line is the average. we are looking at 225,000 for the average number. he expects to 20,000 this month. i've heard the same thing from john furman. the economist that i am talking to our admittedly fairly economist, but they said to look at the numbers at 220,000. the labor market could not be any better. t ellipsesee do between everywhere. most economists do not expect the jobs numbers to stay this high. , whetherit seems bearish or bullish, says they need the numbers to come off a little bit. even that they are looking for a 200 plus number this month, they think it will f

the job market of the u.s.. the department issued fresh data. >> at a first klan's, they have lost some steam. ly about a hundred 60,000 jobs got created. if you look at the details, the labor market is not in such bad shape. earnings are on the rise. these were jobs that were better paint. at this level, it is not easy to mention that. to europe now, you may have got the impression that it is over but the debt crisis is far from solved. lenders and creditors do not see either high -- i to live. they have now been paralyzed by antoher strike. that is ahead of the volk -- both by the green parliament. the ministry employees are rallying against the new austerity measures. >> while the green government is going on, it is also cutting down the pensions and adding new tax burdens. tourists are out of luck. the buses and trains are not moving either. journalists are striking two. the hospitals are only offering emergency services for now. everything the unions are doing now is to justify the existence. but it's greases international creditors who have demanded the austerity measures. the plans inclu

the active jobs data back up to where it was 175 or so. and a quick look at the u.s.index, that also weakening. ♪ vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." markets close for the day and the week in 10 minutes. stock are higher let's get to julie. julie: i'm focusing on individual ubers. i'm throwing up my hands on the reaction we have seen to the jobs report. all three major averages are higher. let's look at the big ubers for the day. yelp is one of them, the company's size and profits beat estimates as it saw an increase in mobile users of 1.2 million. they are more engaged as they say in that business. another gaining as the company's earnings beat estimates and it is closer to the end of an investigation by the federal trade commission. it might have to pay $200 million as that probe does close as settlement of that probe. on the down side today, we saw endo as really the big loser in the s&p 500, the big loser of the day. that company cutting its estimates. it's been hurt by competition for one of its main drugs, it's a painkiller and been hurt by slumping generic pri

and of course, a lot of focus on the dollar ahead of that jobs data. oomberg dollar index is unchanged today, but it is heading for a weekly gain, headed for its biggest weekly gain, in fact, in six months. let's take a look at how the markets are shaping up in europe here at the open. you can see that the stoxx 600 is off by 5/10 of 1%, the f tse and dax down, leaving the losses in futures markets, down almost 8/10 of 1%. in terms of some of the stock that we are watching, the individual movers, looking at profit, which is dropping 33% of the world's biggest steelmaker. it has been contending with sloping steel and iron ore prices -- although it did maintain its four-year earnings target, it still that stock is down. intercontinental hotels group -- what we saw here is the first quarter revenue rising even as weaker oil markets hit the middle east travel and an early easter holiday slow demand in europe. we are seeing that stock down at the open despite that rare part number coming in. a bank with profit surpassing estimates on a bad loan provisions to

ahead of the jobs and economic data due out later today and of course janet yellin is supposed to talk to us about whether or not there's a rate hike this summer. all eyes on the fed as we get close tore that -- closer to that announcement today. >> hadley gamble thank you. >>> i want to check on the weather now. bill karins standing by to give us the forecast or the feud. bill, how is it shaping up for the holiday weekend? >> a lot going on. we have a lot of bad weather, but the weekend looks calmer. let's show you what happened in texas yesterday. one early tornado, during the early morning. you can see little flashes there. those are the transformers blowing as the winds tear apart the power lines. the big story that developed later in the day and continues this morning is the flooding. we have had a ton of rain. this was around the austin area. bryant, texas, college station, north of houston, this entire region of southeast texas has gotten pummelled by endless thunderstorms over the last 12 to 24 hours. let me take you to the weather map. this shows you how much rain has fallen.

that change is just being cemented. >>> on the economic front following the jobs report on friday, there's no datastarting tomorrow lookout for march wholesale trade. then on thursday the weekly jobless claims and import prices from april. then friday the retail sales, the producer price index and may consumer sentiment. the pace of earnings is slow this week but there will be highlights. notably disney tomorrow as well as a host of retail names this week. we'll get macy's, kohl's and jcpenney, really all about the u.s. consumer this week. >>> the latest lumberg gasoline price survey is out and landon dowdy is here with the details. >> lots of oil prices today. the lumberg survey prices at 25 stations in the continental u.s. the average price of regular gasoline jumping 9 cents over the past two weeks to $2.27 a gallon. in the past 12 weeks the price at the pump has risen 50 cents. lumberg says the price is due to higher oil prices. what is the city with the highest pump price? san francisco at $2.83 a gallon for regular unleaded according to lumberg. but it's a deal in baton rouge, louisiana, a t

the key data point this week will no doubt be the u.s. jobsigures and unemployment but let's not forget, manufacturing and services data will also be watched closely and the eros, let's not forget the eros. the bank meets on thursday for the policy meeting. the president mario has tried to call markets with regards to the pace of inflation as he's tried to boost growth in the eurozone. let's have a quick look at the asian markets open now. s&p, asx 200 down. china markets will open in an hour and a half but the shanghai composite inched up on monday but heads towards the biggest monthly loss since last year's devaluation, big drag on the chinese economy, of course, has a rippling effect and will have a rippling effect on neighboring economies we shall check. back to you. >> thanks a lot always for your updates and we'll touch base in a few hours time, thanks a lot. ramine from the tokyo stock exchange. >> for centuries art zisevens he made a porcelain but changing tastes are weighing on demand. they hope to reverse the trend by trying somethin

and some risk she does it, but ultimately next week, adp, and the jobs and the personal income spending on tuesday, and big week for the data, and the jobs on friday, and what happens is that yellen will give a speech, actual speech to wind out what she is going to be saying on june 6th in phillie, ay, and the day of the guidance from janet yellen. >> yes, but the market is ready even if the fed goes? >> yes, it is priced in for a move in june or july, and we were speaking in the green room about it. >> and you don't have the microphone on, but paul richards, and medley advisers and new gig, and congrats, and what do you think? >> well, is the market ready? no, i don't think so. >> you don't? >> no, the fed is prospectively ready, but the market is not. >> where have they been, paul? not paying attention? >> and i agree with you, steve, but every client we are trauk to, and we have been having client meetings in japan and europe and u.s. this week, and no one knows, and there a lot of the power of just sitting on the side right now, and if you are listening to the fed, they will go, and if the data is good, and then yellen

job data. despite the u.s. only adding 160,000 jobs last month short of the 200,000 that have been projected. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on that bloomberg at top . saudi shakeup. the nation has a new oil minister policy and market share is likely to stay the same. the newly appointed khaled a close ally of the deputy crown prince. tonn kerry -- he has vowed maintain policy. how meaningful is the change? he's maintaining oil policy as it is. it's a shift in personnel but not an policy. you have to see how that the saudi's react to global market conditions as we move forward from today. mark: how does this fit into the greater overhaul of saudi arabia? >> it does significantly. to us twice spoken and has indicated he would like to wean the country from oil and is taking steps to do that. he has discussed oil policy, he has a new cabinet in place and this is all moving forward and his idea of where it

clearly she's got another speech a week on monday after the jobs data.round -- >> simon, i'm terribly conflicted. i want everybody to tune in for our coverage at 1:00 p.m. but i don't think this is the place where janet yellen is going to make the policy statement about the possibility of another rate hike in june or july. when i think about the june 6 speech in philadelphia, it's after the isms, it's after jobs, it's a speech which means she gets to wind up and say exactly what she wants to say. it's a much better forum for it. all that said, there is a possibility and chance that former director very renowned harvard analyst is going to ask a question that has market moving possibilities as to the answer. you got to tune in for that reason. but if i was janet yellen, i would think june 6th would be the more appropriate and better venue to make that statement that the market is so listening for. >> that said we've seen it before where they just put one line in. they know what the line has to be and they -- >> right. there is no prepared text, simon. it'

we also got two prominent members of the federal reserve hinting that thth june meeting is a likely event, many anything is possible. we would get more jobs data before the next fed meeting but the chances that we see a second increase after december definitely increase and increase the chances of an interest rate increase. we saw the market getting nervous, blue chips lost three much everything they built up on monday. it's not 100% given, but june could be the time the federal reserve will act again. >> of possible interest rate hike in the u.s., thanks for the a from wall street. what about nuclear power in europe in the future? the eu commission is set to lay out his policy that wt energy. unlike some individual member states such as germany. instead, the commission plans to replace most existing nuclear reactors to ensure a stable nuclear generation capacity over the coming decades read the answer is subject to a ruvell by the eu -- to approval by the eu parliament. they are the so-called small modular reactors. the ideas for eu countries to collaborate on development of these mini-reactors that are more flexible and easier to build. the

they're confident in the second quarter rebound and they believe in the strong data, those who support this over the strong jobs weak gdp d data. a few wanted to do it at the april meeting. they judged the outlook as balanced even in the april meeting. now they want to convey in the statement a sense of diminished global risks. now there was another sign to this story. there was some on the fed who didn't want to convey this and aren't confident in june. they were concerned that data wouldn't justify the june hike. they saw some risks that there is a more persistent slowdown brewing at the time. they remain worried about weak inflation, data, and down side risks abroad. also several participants noted that the global financial markets could be sensitive to the british referendum. there is a sense that federal reserve is considering a june rate hike if the second quarter data improves as expected. back to you. >> all right. steve liesman, wow, breaking news there, folks. a juven june rate hike is likely. the dow jones industrial average has come off 50 points since that crossed. it is up 24 points. let's bring i

evidence to substantiate the claim that the increase in violent crime is related to an unwillingness of police officers to do their job. the thing is latest datahows murder rates dropping in several cities, including houston, charlotte and new york city. >> chris lawrence, thank you. >>> after 15 straight days of rain, we finally saw the sun return today. a welcome sight after a couple of dreary weeks. >> we are so done counting that way. doug kammerer getting us ready for the weekend. now we have had a taste of the sun, can it stick around? >> we will see the sun tomorrow. >> how much? >>. >> just tomorrow morning and then another chance of rain in the afternoon. right now for the first time in quite sometime, almost three weeks, take a look at the radar. it is absolutely clear. we are looking at a nice night. not much in the way of clouds, even at night. nice evening if you were able to get out, eat dinner outdoors it was nice. 77 the high. that's the warmest we have been in three weeks. this is the warmest temperature on the map for a change. everybody -- here's the next front. the front we saw come through today. the next coming through. i

data in the next few days. this morning, personal spending came in stronger than expected in 1%. tomorrow, the latest manufacturing figures followed by the u.s. jobs friday. -- what didnates you make of the data? >> is hard to go with anything definitive from the consumer data. spending, a really big month over month jump. it fits with the story that the economy is clearly rebounding, which is a relief after the week numbers we got. then look at the data we got today about consumer sentiment. it was not so great. easy to get jobs, and hard to get, and by that measure, it is sold out. >> at is what we have been looking forward to all week. what are we expecting? >> the big thing is 160 k. unemployment rate at 5%. that is interesting. basically, since the financial crisis, a steady decline in the unemployment rate. it has been basically stable since last october. people have dismissed it a little bit. it is interesting to watch the longer it goes. close attention to wages if wages continue to rise. >> by the sheet -- what are we expecting from janet yellen? >> clearly more hawkish than expected. a selloff in equity markets since then. as you know, o

those will be the focal points going into friday's jobs report. we also have trade data wednesday. e rattling about low productivity numbers will surface again in q1 because we have decent job gains. why is this manufacturing data import? decentlyse are correlated with gdp growth. if we are bouncing back from .5% in q1 two something healthier, surveysd see these ism improving. and the regional surveys that give us a prelude heading into the week have been next. the chicago pmi disappointing. >> what are you looking forward to in terms of numbers? we need to just sound of the all clear. we do not need further progress, but evidence that we are not unraveling, so to speak. the jobless claims, we do not need new lows, we just need to hold. we have a deceleration in the economy. we have seen negative corporate profits results. these were all negative omens for the pace of hiring. if we can hold up to hundred thousand or better, that is the all clear for the economy. if it is weaker, it will really start to rattle forecasters' pages and worry them. david: rich clarida, what do you look a

the table, and this string of data. any coincidence? you concerned about overheating? you look at big data releases like the jobs inflation, consumer spending, a lot of that has been pretty mixed. we have seen a slowdown in job creation. we are seeing a downstate in inflation and after acceleration we saw in the first quarter. so looking at the data, a lot of us is not so bad. but not too good either. there is not a lot of concern about overheating, which is just another reason why like we've heard in a speech, we should not be in a huge hurry right now. scarlet: and companies are spending. you are looking at this all the indicator. -- paul mccully indicator. matt: he likes to capture the animal spirit of the economy, business is willing to invest. this is core orders have been trading year-over-year which is totally unprecedented outside of a recession. one thing that jumped out on the f1 was a line about how how said business f1c contacts are being cautious even though financial conditions have been normalized. they are not putting on sending plans, hiring plans, that sort of thing. so that caution speaks to t

will release the trade balance for march in wednesday. and jobs data are due out in friday. in march nonforeign payrolls added 215 jobs. >>> every month we ask specialists to discuss view of the week. now we hear a economist from daiichi. here is what he to say about the u.s. economy. >> translator: there was a slow down in the january to march quarter. the main reasons were the stronger dollar of oil prices and weaken foreign economies. there was an adjustment in business inventories. the reasons growth slowed. the negative factors may subside gradually from the april to june quarter or later. >> he gave he thoughts on the fed's decision to leave rates unchanged and what is likely to happen next. >> translator: fed policy makers won't consider an interest rate hike until they're sure the economic slow down is over. their position will be that by putting off a hike, they can give share prices a chance to rise. gdp growth will probably improve in the latter half of the year. so it's possible a rate increase could come in september. that would be the earliest time. if the expec

jobs report we saw this morning. we will take you live to the white house briefing room. scarlet: speaking of jobs, april posted the weakest gains in job growth. alix: markets showing muted reaction to that data. stocks are trading for a fourth day, headed for an 18 month low with a drop in treasuries and yields higher. scarlet: we are halfway through the u.s. trading day. has a look at the latest. julie: we have had a lot of volatility and various assets as investors try to figure out what to make of the data. number was worse in terms of the number of jobs added but we also saw some wage growth and we have heard a little bit of mixed reaction to this number. stocks are down at the moment but there are a number of different factors driving them. the nasdaq is the underperformer, down 6/10 of 1%. look at the s&p 500, we have had a lot of bouncing around even athlete got the number. that even after we got the number. we saw futures recover to some degree and confusion being reflected during the course of the session. we are seeing similar reaction in terms of the bouncing around in other assets. the dollar, for example, a lot of zigzagging in the wake of this report. we saw it go higher and it

platforms of the conventions, that is another cause of the volatility, and of course, the fed data point is the jobsber and the volatility up half a point. >> think about going tointo the year, what were the top three worries? number one, rates would rise and junk bonds in big trouble, and three, people were crowding into the low volatility and high dividend plays would be burned, but this year, if that is the operating logick and you allocated accordingly, you are destroyed. all of the growth sectors are down, and the utes are down, and then you look at the junk bonds doing fine up 3% year to date total return. >> and i want to point out something as well, volatility and returning to that, i is a they we never left it. we have been stuck in the trading range for two years in the s&p 500, and it is more or less between 2100, and 1,900 and overshot on either end, but that is the range, and nothing to break us out of it. no recession here in the u.s., and notwithstanding the jobless claims, a on the other hand recession, and this is not going to break us lower, and on the upside any time we get the go

>> i think it is reasonable given the job growth we are seeing. the inflation data we are seeing. francine: let's welcome our guest for the whole show today. the global chief investment officer and ceo of allianz global investors. it manages 442 billion euros. day in, day out, we talk about fed, will they hike? does it matter whether they hike in june? the world is not ready for a hike. the u.s. maybe but they could wait a little. >> i guess they could. unemployment is at low levels. there are risks on the tray de side. the dollar has been weakening. overall, the fed would much rather have rates higher. so would we, by the way. we need higher rates. i think, yes, absolutely. the market is anticipating putting on a 50% probability of one increase this year. the fed would like to her three. the truth is somewhere in the middle. -- the fed would like to or three. -- two or three. francine: you would welcome an interest rate hike because of the returns. the world is waiting for a normalization of monetary policy? and that is what we need. ern is you look at risks -- you look at brexit

the margin, somewhat negative. we've gotten this whole consumer story. the data out of the jobs market is very, very important. therefore, i think right now, bad news is bad news. jobless claims yesterday, not very good. let's wait for the payroll number next month. >> the former ceo of jcpenney is here and said investors are missing a major part of the retail story. he'll be here to explain. and you won't believe who just bought shares of valeant and immediately sold them. we've got a way for you to get your money back from apple. all when "fast money" returns. it takesbut stealing itd work to eaonly took a few days. female announcer: protect your money. find out if you're dealing with a registered investment professional at investor.gov. before you invest, investor.gov. >>> welcome back to "fast money." retail getting crushed across the board this week. massive declines on disappointing earnings despite an overall bounce in april retail sales. allen is the former chairman of jcpenney. allen, always great to get your take. >> how are you, melissa? >> great. if you were in jcpenney, what would you do in there?

stocks trade down as the latest economic data paints a mixed excerpt for the united states. there are signs of weakness in the job market. oil is trying to get back on track while gold is dipped from its highs. the path to the republican nomination is now clear for donald trump. john kasich about two quit the race. before we get to the markets, more breaking news on politics. cnn is saying that john kasich is not expected to endorse donald trump when he formally suspend his campaign this afternoon. that will take place in columbus, ohio in moments. back to the market, they close in two hours. julie hyman has the latest. julie: markets are hovering around the lows of the session. volume is running about 4% above the 20-day average for the s&p 500. it has pared its gains for the year. the nasdaq has been taking the worst. economice some mix data today. the trade deficit is one of the with thehat came out smallest going back to february 2015. we had fewer imports. there was more of a balance between the two. overall, if you look at the economic data and looked at in the u.s. recently, today, we had the adp numbers.

and if the economic data is b better, and the jobs comes in and i point to the jolt numbers which were amazing. so like if the jobs are better, and the economy is better, and they are not lending to oil and energy markets elsewhere, it can offset where the 10-year is in my opinion, and you get into the c-car stuff, and that is important. >> and what about the energy stocks, do you want the buy them? >> no, look other places, because the risk to reward does not lineup like it did in february. i do believe overall for is s&p, the sentiment is bearish. look at the health kcare, and te financials, and you can't tell me that tech is not going to be coming back once again. >> as you know, bob pisani is live at the btig's charity day in new york city, and he has a special guest with him as well. bob? >> thank you, scott. this is the btig charity day with charities trying to raise $500 million, and this is mayor michael bloomberg who has been active in the charities, and tell us about yours. >> well, this is my second favorite tv station. >> we appreciate that. okay. >> your question again in.

the productivity thing. there is a dynamic, we had 8 million jobs over the last three years. first of all, the data is mismeasured. there is an incredible amount of output that is not captured in the data. secondly, i think when you look at the hard data, we look at people hired, cars sold, miles, vehicle miles traveled, the economy is operating at a very strong level and we're hiring people, but we don't capture the data right. i was saying this facetiously today. if the economy moves along and the rate of hiring slows down, it's a productivity increase, that's not right. we're in a different dynamic today in terms of how the economy is and how we look at productivity and how we measure g.d.p. and output. for example, if oil prices went up significantly, people would say we're seeing better output. that must mean productivity is higher. it's not right. when you look at quality of life and you look at what growth is supposed to measure, you look at the hard data. you look at productivity, a mathematical function thrown off by the fact we're seeing people hired and resources put to work. i'm not as

we can wait until we get to the meeting to see what the data says and try to make a good decision. >> he said while jobs data are strong, other measures are not as robust. >>> in europe it has been a while since we heard about greece asking for money from its international creditors but that is what happened overnight. in recent years greece's debt lows have been a summertime hair ball for stocks but now the international monetary fund apparently like what they see. they approved greece's reform efforts and gave the country more than $11 billion. >>> the french government is tapping its oil reserve to end gasoline short animals. according to local french papers 1/4th of the country's gas stations have run out of fuel or are low. a strike of labor laws have spread across to fra e compa threatened to review its investments in response to this disruption. >>> domestic crude is closing at $50 a barrel. there was a larger than expected drop in crude stock piles. oil futures settled at $49.66. despite the rise oil and gasoline prices are low and that means a lot of people are going to hit the road this holida

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the walkback? job growth well below street expectations for april. 160,000 nonfarm jobs created. we need to give you this data point from the report. the labor force participation rate, meaning people actively looking slipped two tenths of a percentage point to 62.8% in april, down from a two-year high of 63%. overall. such low levels? you have to go back to the 1970s to come close. hourly wages did rise, that is a 2% range level. since the recession, why most americans don't feel good about the economy as economists do. they're not making a lot. genuine consent a 3% gain is necessary to lift the fed's 2% target. wages have not risen more than 3% annually in seven years. what happened? after the number came out the president acknowledged the media and said the numbers are not where they should be, but came up with two solutions, hike the minim corporate tax rates fairer. but we're asking how will that encourage employers to step up hiring now? joining me secretary of labor, tom perez. welcome, mr. secretary, thank you for joining us. >> good to see you, again, liz, long time no seen. liz: it's been a while, w

the job market would pay them well. link in the analyzed the most popular skills in job positions around the world. in the u.s., the top five are cloud computing, dataile development, network security, middle wear, and integration software. >> buehler, buehler -- >> still with me in the top 25 skills are almost all tech and data related. according to job placement firms, skilled jobs in technology can pay six figures or more. so how can you prep to make the big bucks? well, job training, and a pretties ships can get you up to par and help your career soar. science and technology, where it is at. >> i'm with you. >> you're the scientific one. i wouldn't have a clue. >> wouldn't have a clue. >> you figure out if somebody put a dollar sign -- >> yes. >> you would figure it out. >> exactly. >> this is story that can inspire you today. >> college custodian getting his degree, but not just that. michael, and his wife, lost everything in the recession. his business, their home, and their car. he took the only job he could find as a custodian at whoos err polytechnic institute, then he took courses offered to employees and after eight years has a degree in

but historically when the labor market and activity data diverge better off listening to the labor market. it sends a better signal. as long as the jobs holds up it is evidence -- >> is it going to hold up -- >> we do? >> you think it is most likely -- outlier at -- >> absolutely. we take a very strong signal from the payroll data. yes, if the payroll data is slow and gdp doesn't. i'll say something more negative. but if it's just gdp has an off quarter but the payroll data holds up, that is a positive sign. >> do you ascribe anything to an election year? >> usually you don't see. i want that .5 gdp out of the at way before the election. you can't really jigger the numbers i guess. but it always seem to coincide with that. >> right now to your points earlier, i don't think the election is affecting activity or investment or sentiment at this point. we have to get a little further but yeah it will be a factor. we have a strong forecast. we're looking for 250 on the headline today. we're looking for better wage growth. and unemployment to fall. a bit of a trifecta report. >> i don't make any sort of forecast until i hear leisman. >> he

but part of it is the technology that is automating a lot of routine repetitive jobs. there is still more demand for data scientists, for creative people, for nurturing, but people doing routine work are finding it harder and harder to compete with machines. >> back to the restaurant business. i presume as automation comes in, whether it is taking orders, bagging french fries at mcdonald's or wendy's or wherever, that is going to mean fewer jobs in those locations. is that race towards fewer jobs going to be accelerated by a rise in the median wage, in other words, are companies going to accelerate the use of automation, costing jobs as wages rise? >> there will be some of that. to keep this in perspective, we should understand that technology has been destroying jobs, it always has been creating jobs, there is a balance, a turn there that is natural and healthy. that's how the economy becomes more productive and that's how our living standards rise as people move from one area to the other. but it is true that if you push up the wages, say, through a minimum wage, that does increase the incentive for co