and this is the tragedy for the p.a.n. here's the 2000 p.a.n. number. look, it catches the pre, and then it starts going down again and what we're going to see in the next slide is look at this, even after the pre's debacle in the 2006 elections, when magrasso came in third base the pre still had a higher percentage of the voting population that just identified with it. people liked the pre. and then here you see it, this is during calderon's presidency and as we saw from jorge's number calderon was not a reviled president. people liked him. even during this presidency, the p.a.n. did not manage to communicate with voters and the pre did. and that i think, let me just go back here, so just to sort of end up this talk is that the pre has enormous power because voters at the municipal and state levels always liked the pre. they never gave up on the pre. they never switched to identifying with either the p.a.n. or the prd. they have very good governors. the governors, once they get in office, tend to stay in office, the party does, because remember, there's

the p.a.n. -right national action party and the pri is centerleft part of the democratic revolution. those to as we're going to see with some numbers are regional party to a regional basis of power, electoral power. the pri on the thing is a national party. it is electoral power in all regions of the nation. second, there were no major interparty splits or decisions. they did not fracture over the selection of the candidate. as they almost did in 2006. third, it is as much of other conjuncture of doctor, every for a strong candidate. you can complain and you can make fun of peÑa nieto but he was an extraordinarily strong candidate. it wasn't just because he was handsome. there are other reasons that explain. the two people i have a. by the way, this is man well. he will probably be the next pri leader in the lower house cookies extremely powerful politician to get he is not puzzling to peÑa nieto. will talk about that a little bit at the end. this is the head of, and i had a very good picture of

challenges, the candidates were trying to outbid one another. p.a.n. and pri had gone for a relatively conservative agenda regarding economic issues. as amlos started soaring in the polls, may/june, they had to adopt that and therefore they adopted the language of subsidies to electricity and gasoline and, you know, cheaper credit, so there are lots of promises out there. this is going to be a process of how to manage the process of frustrated expectations, and with 90% plus of the federal budget already earmarked, there's little room for maneuvering. so lots of promises. how are you going to deal with that? that's one for pena nieto. two more minutes and then i finish. second challenge is, you know, the pri has been saying we will continue the fight against organized crime. at the same time that we bring down violence. wow. so how do you square that circle? that's the big one. that i think could make or break the legacy of this president. they've come out with something which appears to be trying to bridge things, saying, well, we're going to base our

however, i -- i really would not be very optimistic about that because you have the p.a.n. in the senate doesn't like the reform that the pri is cooking up regarding universal social security, so that remains to be seen. >> just a very brief final word. i used to say a telegraph comes in and now we have to say a twitter. no. i do agree with joy. i think that there is no possibility to -- to have a second round in political terms. i do agree with that, and if there is any kind of reform i think that the bad news now is goi going. i'm afraid about it because i believe that the parties are very concerned about -- about the problems with the polls and that they are going to try to make new rules, regulate it. if i would -- >> the other rules to regulate. >> if i were to have to bet, my bet is on that side. >> well, every time we try to fix something, you make it worse, so let's be careful. jorge, i know you have to get a word in here, and then we're done. >> well, i think that parts of mexico are highly regulated. i don't think that at the end i think that the regulation was par

foreign language ] we see governments are extending, are practicing client elistic arrangements, where the p.a.n. or prd or pre in mexico city. this is more extensive than we assume. >> join me in thanking our panel. [ applause ] and we're going to transition right away, i'm going to introduce pablo gutierrez, he's the director of the department of electoral cooperation and monitoring at the organization of american states. they led an electoral observation mission to mexico for these elections that was led by former colombian president cesar garvidia. pablo was instrumental in this process and i invited him to talk a little bit about their official observation of the election and what they saw and witnessed there. thank you, pablo. >> may i start to say that when i listened of course to the presentations, i'm thinking we have a problem in america, because the same issues in mexico is in el salvador, hondur honduras, ecuador, peru, buying votes or the social programs or the first lady, whatsoever, so we have a big issue in latin america in the electoral system. i want to start saying that i thin

the opposition remains alive and kicking without some of p.a.n. support, both in the upper and lower chambers of pena nieto's reforms. he will not be able to be as ambitious as he might want them to be. particularly, labor, energy, fiscal reform, and social security. no return to the past. the p.r.i. will have to keep wheeling and dealing, but this time from a position of power. keep an eye on the questions of legitimacy, keep an eye on the social networks where we showed a clear advantage of those who are members of the generation of social media, and given the ripple effect that the social media has on the ground, and on real time, we will keep watching that. this is a new factor in civil society. i am not saying they are going to save democracy from the hands of the cynics, but certainly, there is a point that can be made. do they become absorbed into the political system and end up like many social movements in the u.s. and europe, finally coming into one of the main tent, or do they remain out there trying to advance accountability, not only o

host: let me ask you about the p.a.n. party, the party of the former president.hey came to power after decades of the pri party. this appears to be a comeback for pri, the institutional revolutionary party. why? caller: why -- guest: why a comeback? host: yes. guest: it has to do with the times. the office in 2000, the wave of excitement that there would be something new, he did not really try and change the old structure of power, the old structure and way of doing politics, without any really significant degrees. the institution, the legitimacy of this -- the legitimacy of the institution began to rise. his way of showing that he was in control was to push forward effectively against the drug cartels. really, in the meantime, the economy has been running up the storm ok, but it is not growing by any means, the race, satisfying the means of what is needed. they were a big disappointment. at the same time, they have had this fairly successful makeover in the form of [unintelligible] who is favored to win. he is young, good-looking, energetic and smooth. a lot of